Polymarket Airdrop Explained: How Much Money You Can Earn (Real Estimate)

[00:03] ? In today's video we're going to analyze the famous airdrop market, which is practically confirmed, and how much you could earn based on the volume you wallet is, and the transactions you've made in different markets. We're going to

[00:19] look at all the possibilities, compare it with other previous airdrops, and I'm going to tell you how much I intend to earn with this airdrop. Will I become a . As always, if you like the video, give it a big thumbs up. If

[00:32] forget to subscribe. And if you have any questions or comments, leave them in read them all. And that's where we begin. Well, the Polymarket airdrop is one of the most sought-after airdrops of this new

[00:46] crypto cycle, we could say that. And right now, Poly Market is valued at almost 20 billion dollars. Okay, we're talking about something that's huge, absolutely huge. For people who are new or don't know, Polyarket is

[01:00] a prediction market where, well, basically we can practically anything. If the price of oil is going to be at a certain price on such and such a day, then the Iranian regime will fall; if

[01:12] United States and, sorry, enter Iran; if the price of Bitcoin is going to be Well, pretty much everything, okay? They have football, they have sports, they have everything, okay? What's happening? These famous prediction markets have become

[01:24] very fashionable and as I say, well, Poly Market was already valued at 9 billion are talking about it being valued at 20 billion how big Polyarket is right now, because it's very important to understand

[01:38] the value of an airdrop, to understand how big the company is in the end, the capital, which is when it was said that the total value of Polyarket was 9 billion, we're talking about here, okay? when Polymarket

[01:50] was practically doing, at most, I think it was a billion, okay?, of volume per month, which as you can see here was at 1.4. Well, currently last month Polyarket has made $7.9 billion in volume, okay? An absolute

[02:04] outrage. The only one it competes with in volume is Calsy, which is the, let's say, American Gamblin version, so to speak, but it's another one there is. And that's 's not 100% crypto. He hasn't said anything about an airdrop yet. And as you can see, it

[02:17] behind it is only Polymarket, okay? Then there are some smaller ones like the one that came out on the Binance network, the famous, well, Sisi or Sí, the Predict Fun that some people have, but come on, they don't even come close

[02:29] , okay? So, as I said, a very large company. At the valued at 9 billion. It's now doing seven and is valued at 20. Well, as I say, a pretty big company size. And here's

[02:44] the real question, which is, okay, the company is very big, but how can we know how much the airdrop will be? Are they going to give a lot, the only thing we can do is, uh, compare it with other examples,

[02:57] different examples here to give you an idea of ​​roughly where the numbers might be. In the case of previous airdrops, I think a similar airdrop could be Hyperliquid or Hype, okay? Hyperliquid or

[03:10] Hype came out in, uh, well, a little before January 2025, I'd say in December 2024, yeah, more or less. And it came out with a market cap of practically one billion, the value of the company is one thing, and what they

[03:22] the case of Arbitrum, when they did an airdrop, it was 10% of the supply, or in usually more or less between 5 and 10% of the supply. Sometimes a little more, it case of Hiper Lequid, as I said, the total valuation of Hiperliquid was

[03:37] at two and then flew off at practically 9 billion, but that's because it was between 1 and 2 billion at the start, okay? In the case of Apcoin, which was another airdrop that came out with the famous e, what's it called?, those famous

[03:50] the name right now, but oh well. Uh, basically this airdrop was given to people who had the NFTs, and it also came out at a super hyped time in the market and was also at two and a bit more or less, and then it reached up to 5

[04:03] sank, okay? Because nothing more was done with this project, but well, that's the airdrop itself, okay? What I'm saying are similar numbers. Uh, came out quite recently, which is not a prediction market, it's more

[04:16] like, well, hyperliquid actually, but it came out at around actually, but it came out at around 600, 700 million approximately. And then we have one directly comparable to Polymarket, which would be

[04:28] Limitless, okay? Limitless is a prediction market that, believe it or not, you 've already seen. It's in this chart here; you just ca this is Limitless. Now let's look at the comparison to

[04:41] see how much we could earn with our airdrop, okay? But the first thing Hiperliquid, to take a good example, how much did Hiperliquid give out in Airdrop? Well, Hiperliquid was quite generous, giving away 31% of the supply,

[04:57] okay? That's outrageous. What's happening? This airdrop is usually divided based on different things. In other words, if you have a wallet that has used value that. If you have a wallet that has been active, I don't know, for 50 days,

[05:10] then they're going to value that. If you have a wallet that has spent $500,000 on Okay? So, based on that, they give you a little more or a little less. What I've done is transform it more or less into how much they gave for the volume that you

[05:24] had made the platform. And they gave approximately between 3.90 and 3.60 at the beginning, okay? If we calculate the value afterward, it ended up being between almost 9 and 9.10 afterward, it ended up being between almost 9 and 9.10 per $1,000. volume. Okay? What's

[05:39] decentralized market for those who don't know, where you buy and sell with leverage. That is, it's $9 for $1,000 of volume, but if you use leverage of 10, for example, $100 is already $1,000. Okay?

[05:52] So, we're talking about it being practically between 3 and 10% of all the volume you've done, okay? That's already good, it's quite a lot, I wouldn't say it's . Moreover, since the token's hype in C then rose, they gave quite a bit

[06:05] approximation. Because? Because if you have less volume, you have probably you have an old wallet, for example, if you've made transactions, I'll give a different example on Arham, which was a platform where you could search for

[06:19] I received a pretty good airdrop, even though I had never used Arham anything, but since I used it to search for things and I had a couple or three referrals from the gave me a pretty good airdrop. Okay, I think I made $800 in Arham if I'm not

[06:36] okay? I don't remember right now, but I got them a lot and my volume was beginning and all, I got a good an example of a decentralized exchange,

[06:48] we have is Limitless. As I said, Limitless is open it and you'll see that it's the same, literally the same, I mean, it's Polymarket 2.0. Well, Limits released a token this November, okay? And as you can see, the token

[07:01] was launched at approximately 50 million market capitalization , making the token price around 33 cents , okay? To give you an idea, they gave the airdrop equivalent of technically 24% of the

[07:15] airdrops and rewards and I don't know what else, but the airdrop itself was 2% of the supply, which isn't a lot, but remember that Limitless is much smaller. What does this mean? They gave a very high supply, or rather, a

[07:29] volume was extremely low. They left in November, so the data available was from October, which is what's here. And as you can see here, Limitless was volume, okay? The limitless literally puts it there . Well, it's difficult to

[07:41] pinpoint here, but basically, you'll see it says Limitless 94,000,000. Keep in mind that it's a much smaller project than Polyarket, okay? I repeat, I around 2 billion. Now let's look at the numbers. But why? Well,

[07:53] because the Limit went off at 50 million when it was literally doing 90,000, okay? And Polyarket was doing 4 trillion, which is 40 times more. In other words, if we base it on the same valuation, then it's literally

[08:06] 50 * 40 = 2 trillion, okay? From the market cap that came out, which is 50 million, for 40 than Polymarket has, 2 billion would make sense . Furthermore, if Polymarket is going to be valued at around 20 billion, then it makes sense that approximately 10%

[08:19] numbers more or less what Light, Limitless have had; they are not exact, but the numbers are roughly in that range, so in that sense it makes sense to us. But the thing is, in Limitless, as I

[08:32] Because the volume was considerably lower, they were essentially giving out lower, they were essentially giving out $70 for every $1,000 of volume. Yes, $70 for every $1,000 of volume. Yes, almost 7% of the volume. What's happening? It's

[08:46] about the net volume. In other words, if we compare Hyperliquid with Limitless has given a lot of pork." No, it's because Hyperliquid has of course, receive much more depending on the leverage you use. In the case of

[08:58] Limitless, in the case of Polymarket, there is no leverage. In other words, you compete but you don't compete with people who do leverage and have 5 billion in going to have a huge volume and make a lot of money. One thing doesn't

[09:11] much smaller amounts. This means you get paid much more. Imagine for every $1,000 of volume, $70. Hey, it's pretty solid. Okay, so I think Polyarket might work similarly, right? Similar. There, it does

[09:25] n't even reach $70. In fact, I have the comparison here and you highly recommend Chat GPT in the Explorer version for comparing fonts everything in one place. And as you can see here, a 5% airdrop would be 1 billion.

[09:38] Uh, 10% would be 2 billion. I think it will end up being around 2%, or 10%, which will be the equivalent of 2 billion. And I think this thing here is still around the old base, okay? That will be about 59-60 per

[09:53] that, okay? It might be less, but that's what I think they're going to pay, okay? To give you an idea, in my wallet here on Poly Market, uh, sorry, but if we come here to Dun, I'll leave you the link. Here you can see

[10:06] how much volume you've generated with your wallet, okay? I have from buying and selling, buying and selling. Then I have made 4,137 trades, rising a lot here. Now I'm going to explain why, what I'm doing.

[10:21] , the last 57 days to be more exact. I have participated in 3600 markets . I have been active for 9 months. I have a very low volume per trade, which explain it to you now, it's $ and well, here you can see the markets where I've been most involved

[10:37] has basically been sports in this case , which is also a problem, okay? What's happening? There are two things to keep in mind, okay? One thing is volume, okay? If we take it and say, "Okay, we're going to get $60 for every $1,000

[10:49] of volume," well, right now that would give me $6,300, which, hey, n't even touched it much, okay? It seems like there's a lot of volume, but that's If you had made bigger bets, that volume would have been built up quickly.

[11:02] have several wallets because I don't just have one. And what happens? In strategies, okay? Different strategies that are a bit like farming. For fact, if you look at my account here, you'll

[11:16] see that there are a lot of purchases on different sports, okay? This is but because it's a bot I have. And what happens? The bot doesn't win, to be What I'm seeing isn't winning, but it's helping me a bit to farm that airdrop.

[11:30] I generate volume, then I'm going to earn considerably more than I might be losing in commissions, okay? In the end. So, that's why I find it very Polymarket doesn't have commissions, which means you can look for markets where

[11:42] you can buy and sell practically without losing anything or trying to lose as little as possible, and you can farm fairly well. What been testing, I've been putting it on a betting basis. It's true that it

[11:56] makes a lot of bets, like 4,000 I've made, which is a ton, but small volume, they'll ban it. They might say it's a wallet set up ban it. So, it's really more

[12:08] is, to actually enter the market, make a couple of trades, buy, sell, that kind of thing. They score higher, okay? And here's the important part: it's not just the volume you beginning, but one of the most important things is how old your

[12:21] . As you can see, I'm getting trades from 2025, from August, from October. Well, some of them are quite old, okay? And I think I even have one from 2024 that isn't showing up , but that's because my wallet joined in

[12:34] 2021. Just for that reason, literally just for that reason, they probably already have a better So, it's not just about volume, but if you have a relatively old wallet, interesting behavior, if you've participated in political markets or other things—

[12:47] I have is that I'm trading a lot of sports markets, they haven't volume percentage for all these people is sports, but political markets are most likely worth more . So, well, I think

[13:02] my wallet, but as I said, I think it could be a pretty an idea, I have exactly three different bots, which I'm testing with roughly this volume, so with those three bots that have literally

[13:15] lost me something, they've lost, I don't know, €30 between ups and downs and such, you'll come here and tell me, "Hey, Pedro, this wallet has lost you €200." doing arbitrage between Polyarket and another exchange, and I made a profit on that exchange.

[13:30] called Predict Bot, you can search for it here and if you want you can watch it, and says here that I lost €200. Okay, but really, the bot usage here, well, I don't know, maybe I have... Losses here are listed at $37 now, then they go

[13:42] better and worse days, right? I could go broke and lose everything tomorrow, in principle, it shouldn't. And like I said, I have three bots, well, those three . So, well, if you want to try it, I think the

[13:57] will be around there, okay? I think it's going to be a good airdrop, I think they're going remember, it's an airdrop, this isn't a recommendation for fun and above all, it's not guaranteed. They might never do the airdrop, they might pay nothing, they might

[14:10] has been malfunctioning and that it's useless. Well, yes, the truth is, it's possible . Personally, well, I do n't think so. I think it's going to work out , but I don't know. We'll see. That's my Opinion. Like I said, based on the numbers,

[14:23] around $2 billion in market cap, which is, well, the cryptocurrency itself when it launches. And yes, I think you could make, roughly , $60 or even $1,000 of volume. We'll have to see because it could be

[14:36] much less, but remember there's no leverage on Polymarket, that's why they pay so much, okay? Because on any other exchange you just go in, Not here, you can't do that. There's literally no leverage. And if

[14:48] you use leverage, you won't be farming. I mean, there are leverage, but they won't let you farm the airdrop with that leverage; others are getting it . So, I think it's

[15:00] on a level playing field, so to speak, especially if you're watching the could be interesting. Now, like I said, it could go very wrong, anything can happen, you liked the video, give it a big thumbs up

[15:14] different prediction, leave it in the comments. Tell me exactly which one you want. And that's description, let's see if I don't forget to put this link there so you just a matter of entering your wallet address here, clicking "ran," and it will give you all the data.

[15:27] And that's it, see you in the next video.