Positive EV Betting Strategy Explained

[00:00] Positive EV betting strategy is the most  profitable sports betting method around anyone   can do it calculations are simple and I can prove  it because I've made fortunes using it myself I'll   break the strategy down in layman's terms explain  where it's most profitable why it beats other  

[00:15] strategies and share a real example by the end of  this video it works regardless of the sports book   or where you are in the world so what exactly  is positive EV betting strategy EV is short for  

[00:28] expected value which is the term originating from  probability Theory it signifies the anticipated   return on a bet or a trade quantitative analysts  in the financial sector often use it as a metric  

[00:41] for value now in sports betting calculating the  BET's expected value is simple it's the cumulative   total of every possible outcomes payoffs  multiplied by its likelihood of winning let's take  

[00:54] a football match between West Ham and Chelsea as  an example if the Betfair Sportsbook offers odds   of 2.8 for the draw you profit by one pound 80 for  every one pound steak assuming that the match ends  

[01:09] in the drawer of course however if either team  wins you lose your one pound stake so the EV for   this bet is calculated by the probability of the  draw multiplied by 1.8 added to the probability of  

[01:22] the match ending in either team winning multiplied  by negative one so in this instance it means that   the draw rods have a negative expected value of 23  Pence or 23.28 now I know some people don't like  

[01:37] doing the maths so there's a free EV calculator  online here that will do it all for you just   like this one so when you work out the EV for the  majority of bets on a sports book their value is   negative because of course includes the house  Edge ensure the bigger the negative EV figure  

[01:54] the more they're ripping you up however plus EV  odds are available every single day I'll show you   where I went shortly but as an illustration  if the draw in our example was priced at 4.0  

[02:06] it would become a positive EV bet the simplest  method to determine a BET's probability in sports   betting is by Consulting the betting exchanges  or short books like Pinnacle betting exchanges   make their money from commissions on winnings  after the event has been settled so it's a free  

[02:23] market where prices are controlled by supply and  demand with no margin plus the sharpest mines in   sports betting play big on the exchanges their  cumulative knowledge makes pricing incredibly  

[02:35] accurate especially when it's close to the event  start so if you've heard of the wisdom of crowds   or law of large numbers effectively this is  what I'm talking about here making money with   positive EV betting is reliant on slow updates  and miscalculated odds now don't worry this  

[02:50] isn't a matched betting or Arbitrage video but  promotional offers can create positive EV bet   bookmakers regularly offer short-term positive  bonuses in an attempt to hook in long-term  

[03:03] losers and degenerates if you're going to use  them make sure you do it effectively there's a   separate video on that Linked In description down  below now to be profitable we need to focus our   sports betting on positive EV bets only let's  delve into a theoretical scenario to illustrate  

[03:19] how positive EV betting performs in contrast  to Arbitrage betting for example the results   might surprise some of you so let's assume we've  got an under over 2.5 goals Market on a football  

[03:31] match where both outcomes are equal there's a 50  chance of either outcome happening they're evenly   matched this means that the fair odds would be  2.0 in decimals evens in fractions or plus 100  

[03:44] in American odds however for argument's sake let's  say there's an odds discrepancy with the over 2.5   goals priced at 3.0 whereas the under 2.5 goals  a price of 1.8 if we're using positive EV betting  

[03:59] strategy it's staking 20 pound then the focus  would be on the over 2.5 goals bet because this   is where the plus EV selection is at 3.0 we would  need to place our 20 pound stake on overs at 3.0  

[04:13] and totally disregard the alternate betting line  now if the BET wins we secure 40 pounds profit   and if it doesn't we lose our 20 pound state  to understand the expected value of this bet  

[04:25] we multiply the probability of Happening by the  potential payout so 50 multiplied by 40 pounds   plus 50 multiplied by negative 20 pounds is equal  to 20 pounds minus 10 pounds giving us a positive  

[04:39] EV of 10 pounds for this bet again here's an EV  calculator confirming the numbers but by way of   comparison if we were to rerun the simulation  approaching it as an Arbitrage better it would  

[04:51] look a little bit like this the arbitrage bettor  would split the stakes placing seven pounds 50   on overs at 3.0 and 12 pounds 50 on unders at 1.8  when you look at the respective payouts of either  

[05:05] of those lines if it should win it leaves a total  profit of two pounds 50. once the initial 20 pound   stake has been deducted significantly less than  when using the positive EV betting strategy now  

[05:17] if that's confused you you might want to watch  that last minute or so again and look at those   calculations so there's no question positive EV  betting is a lot more profitable than Arbitrage   although the obvious downfall is the short-term  variance it results an unfortunate run of bad  

[05:34] variants with results can be a little bit testing  if you haven't got the nerve for it although long   term the numbers don't light and I can prove  it with my own profits as you'll see in just   a second aside from the short-term variation in  results there are several other beneficial factors  

[05:49] to consider when comparing positive EV betting  and Arbitrage sure Arbitrage betting offers a   risk-free Avenue where you profit every single  time regardless of the outcome but it's worth  

[06:01] considering that twice the amount of bets need to  be placed and the second hedge bet often reduces   the overall expected value you can hedge weave  a better exchange where the odds are on offer   are likely to represent a neutral EV figure  although there's Commission on your exchange  

[06:16] winnings The Only Exception being if you can get  0 commission via a service like odds monkey the   most favorable options depend on your own risk app  type but factually speaking positive EV betting  

[06:28] strategy is the optimal approach when viewed  in the context of long-term frequent betting   as I've said the return is just so much better  now there's a couple of ways to maximize your   profits and reduce risk with positive EV strategy  I'll show you some solid examples in a second but  

[06:45] first the shortcut to enhancing your profits and  reducing risk the first golden rule is to only bet   on positive EV best and when you do stay in line  with the Positive EV margin the bigger the value  

[06:58] margin the bigger we should state so where can  you find plus EV bets easily there are multiple   places every day typically the best opportunities  are around the speed at which odds change and the  

[07:10] lower quality betting events where pricing is  harder for the bookmakers to quantify and keep   track of an example of lower quality might be the  foreign low quality football leads and ancillary   markets like under servers goals corners and  cards an example of speed at which odds change  

[07:28] might be the horse racing markers or Greyhound  betting again Lower quality racing throws up the   best opportunities for such price discrepancies  especially in the final minutes counting down   to the post personally I prefer to focus on  the fast changing odds now there are several  

[07:43] software tools that can help you do this although  there are two main options first you have tools   that identify Miss price betting odds if you're  in the United States or Australia odd sham will   help you out and if you're in the UK odds monkey  is best now unfortunately wherever you are the  

[07:59] platforms can't fully automate the process for you  the sports books just wouldn't allow it they hate   people using sophisticated tools like this after  all plus EV betting has a mathematical advantage  

[08:11] over the house and they know it however the  tools can show you exactly where positive EV   opportunities exist in real time here's a couple  of positive EV bets highlighted by oddsjam on the   screen and a bunch of others Gods monkey now the  second option is my personal favorite you'll need  

[08:28] to be quicker when doing it although the positive  expected values are far higher when using this   method particularly on high speed better markets  like the Greyhounds now I share my personal bet   in history with over 6 000 pound profit from one  account and explain the full strategy here in the  

[08:44] end screen so please go and check out that video  now thanks for watching I'll see you next time