Roulette Risk Management — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] Hello Wheel Masters and welcome back to Mastering the Wheel. So in today's video I've got a lot to unpack and I can thank one of my subscribers for that because he asked me a few questions in the YouTube comments

[00:13] and I thought that the answers to the questions deserve a more in-depth explanation. So I told him that I would basically give out my answers on the channel. So I'm going to do that today. Now, so we're going to head over to my progression calculator

[00:28] so that I can do some math on some of the systems that I'm going to be talking about. And actually, I already recorded this video and saw what happens, but as I was explaining or answering the questions,

[00:43] things happened so quickly and the video was over, and I never got a chance to finish. So I'm actually re-recording this, and so this is kind of like a voiceover. And so just so you guys know, I already know what happens.

[00:55] But anyways, let's go over to the roulette tools and we'll talk about, well, I'll answer those questions and then we'll go play some roulette and see what happens. But before we do, if you guys don't mind hitting that subscribe button and the like button, it does help out the channel a great deal and I do very much appreciate it.

[01:09] So thank you so much for that. Now let's head over to the tools. All right, guys. So here we are at the website and everybody has access to this. You can sign up for a free account at www.betmaster-data.com.

[01:21] And when you go into your dashboard, you're going to have access to these tools. So if you scroll all the way down, what we're going to be working with today is a progression calculator. So let me just open up that right now. And so what this calculator allows me to do is calculate the risk of progressions,

[01:36] and basically straightforward progressions. And what I would call a straightforward progression is, you know, an 18-number system with seven levels, for example, or a 22-number system with five levels.

[01:48] If your system expands or contracts in wheel coverage from one level to the next, then there's some additional math you would have to do to figure that out. The calculator doesn't work like that. But I am going to show you how the calculator does work for very specific progressions,

[02:03] and we're going to be talking about the system that we're playing today and the system that my subscriber had mentioned that he's been playing lately, and I'm going to show him the math behind what he's been doing. So first, I'd like to start off with some context, I guess,

[02:16] and I will read to you what my subscriber said, and then we'll go from there. So, first, the conversation started like this.

[02:28] He said, I really like your content, but your last few videos were all the same. And so, and I know exactly what he was talking about, and it was actually the system that we're going to be playing today. You know, I'd already played a few videos like that,

[02:40] and I've explained the math a couple of different ways, but I guess kind of the same. So, you know, respectfully, I asked. So I thanked him very much for his feedback and asked if there was anything else that he would like to see me do.

[02:54] And so this was his response. And thank you, by the way. I really appreciate this. So he said, not in a system in particular, but I would like to see you get in trouble.

[03:08] I don't want to see you lose money, don't get me wrong, but how do you handle situations like that? How's the math on that? How often can you lose and still be profitable? I'm playing outside bets with 12 progressions at the moment.

[03:21] In one day, I saw 10 losses twice already. You've been playing with 10, so you would have lost quite a lot. That's what gambling is all about. What do you do when things don't go your way? Do you keep playing?

[03:33] Do you increase your bets next day? Et cetera, et cetera. So, all great questions and some good points. So, let me start by saying, so, okay, so he wants to see me get into trouble.

[03:46] Well, I think we can all agree that nobody wants to get into trouble, but I think getting into trouble is kind of inevitable in roulette, and sometimes it leads to a loss, right? So, I go in with a plan, and I stick to the plan, right?

[04:00] So, the system that I'm playing today, it's a 10-level progression where we have a trigger waiting for four misses, and I'm betting on six of the other levels. Now, that system getting into trouble would mean that I might go to level 9,

[04:15] and I'd be sweating a little bit, right? Because you've only got a couple of attempts left. You're coming down to almost a coin flip as to whether you win or lose. But when I lose at level 10, do I go outside of my plan to try to recover my losses?

[04:30] Absolutely not, because I've used math to determine what the deepest level I can possibly go is without being able to recover, or while I can still recover, that is.

[04:44] So, for example, and here's a really easy one. When I was playing with my hottest 18 system, that was a 7-level progression. And 7 levels because when I was walking away at 10%, I was able to...

[04:59] I needed to win 10 sessions in order to make the equivalent to my session risk amount, okay? Does that make sense? 10%? 10 winning sessions, I make the amounts that I've got at risk, right?

[05:11] So my risk was $230 every session, and I was making about $25 every session, right? So I need 10 winning sessions to make up that risk enough. Now, if I go to an eighth level, that means that I need double the bankroll.

[05:29] And so if I'm trying to, so I can look at it two different ways. I can continue to stay for 10% of my initial bankroll, and then lose at an additional level that I didn't plan on losing,

[05:43] but then if I stay at the exact same structure now, instead of winning 10 sessions, I have to win 20 sessions. That's the first bad part about it. And I'll tell you guys, I win 10 sessions very easily, no problem,

[05:57] with an 18-number, 7-level system, that system in particular, but winning 20 sessions isn't as easy. I don't do that as often, and I can't do that consistently, okay? So that's the first challenge.

[06:10] And then, or you can say, well, if your bankroll is bigger, $460 instead of $230, well, 10% of that is $46. So for 10%, we'll still work out to the same thing.

[06:23] Sure, you're right, but now I have to save for twice as many spins because I need to make twice as much money, okay? So now my risk just went up because my exposure has doubled. right so either way you lose so seven on an 18 number system is the most amount of money

[06:42] bets you want to put at risk so this is to address the 12 number system if you playing a a 12 system that fantastic It a very safe system Now how safe is it All depends on you Are

[06:56] you betting on all 12 levels? I hope not. Okay. The maximum you'd want to bet is 7 levels. That means you're going to have a 5-level, your first 5 levels are going to be weights.

[07:08] You're going to be, it's a trigger, right? A 5-level or a 5-trigger progression. Once If you've missed, say, a streak of black comes, then you're going to start betting on red after five black come. Or if five odd come, you'll start betting on even.

[07:22] Either way, you're going to want to have five misses before you start betting and then have seven bet levels. That's the safest way you can make that system. Now, I'm going to show you the math behind that system. So, suppose we're betting on 18 numbers and you've got 12 levels.

[07:39] Now, this is answering one specific question. what are the chances of any one of the even bets, so that's red or black, not both of them, okay,

[07:53] just to make that clear, because if the number's going to seem large, and it is, you're going to see, say, 12 red on average once every 6,112 spins. And you might say, well, Jason,

[08:05] I see a run of 12 way more frequently than that. And absolutely, you do. But that's a different question, right? What we're asking right now is, of any one of the even bets, even, odd, high, low, red, or black, any one of those six, what are the chances of one of them, okay, will just choose red coming, you know, 12 times?

[08:27] The answer is this. Now, each one has that probability. So, this is where it compounds, and this is why you're going to see a run of 12 more often, right? So, let me answer that question for you.

[08:39] And if we go to the bottom part of the calculator, what we can do is we're going to put in how many numbers we're not covering down here, which is 19, right? This includes the other color plus the zero. And now we're talking, now I've got two what I call channels.

[08:54] We're talking red and black, okay? Very easy to identify patterns here. This is where we often see our long streaks. They happen in the other even bets too, but it's just so much easier to see here because they're color coded.

[09:07] and so we've got 12 levels for our progression. So if we're talking just red and black, right, so now you're going to see, chances are you're going to see a run of 12 red or black once every 3,000 spins, okay, give or take.

[09:22] So this is basically in a day, right? So you'll see one of each in a day, a run of red or a run of black, right? You could see both, right? There are variants, obviously, right?

[09:34] This doesn't mean it's going to happen on cue. These are just averages. but everything in roulette works out to its probability in the long run, all right? So now that said, I'm assuming that you are betting,

[09:47] when you say you're 12-number system betting on outside bets, let's just assume that you're betting on all of them, right? You're monitoring even, odd, high, low, red, and black. So let's go ahead and do the math on that. So I'm going to add the additional four channels,

[10:01] and we'll just copy the 19 and put that into these ones. and now we're going to cover all of the even bet possibilities. Okay, so this is the probability of you seeing a run of 12 of any one of the even bets.

[10:21] So that's once every thousand spins. Now, of course, it can happen sooner. It will and it does. And then, of course, it can take a bit longer. It will and it does. That said, what I do is I take a fraction of whatever the risk is.

[10:35] So this is what we consider your risk right here, okay? Your system has a probability of failing once every 1,000 spins. So the longest you want to spend at the wheel is 200. I would round this to 200. It's 204, but let's just make it easy, 200 spins, okay?

[10:50] But even safer now, so this is the maximum spin window, okay? I would not stay for longer than 5%. 5% is your financial target, and you're going to leave as soon as you make that.

[11:02] Now, sometimes things just don't land our way when we play roulette, and it can take longer to make the money that we're hoping to make. If that's the case, and you happen to reach your spin window

[11:14] before you reach your financial target, that's when you have to leave no matter what. You've overstayed your welcome. The wheel is not working for you today. Leave tomorrow's another day, okay? You don't have to hit that financial target.

[11:27] What you don't want to do is run into that run that's going to wipe you out, okay? The longer you spend there, the higher the likeliness of that run coming is. All right? So, that's the whole idea right here, okay?

[11:40] So, your 12-number system, the safest way you can play it is with five misses, your trigger, then start betting, seven-level progression that you're actually betting on, and that's it. If you have an eighth level, I would cut that out and add a trigger in there,

[11:54] because the eighth level becomes impossible or extremely difficult to recover from. A ninth level, basically impossible. Ten, it's like, you know, you might as well, I don't know, whatever is improbable.

[12:08] It's almost impossible to recover from that loss. You'll never get it back, okay? Unless you get lucky. I mean, you know, you could just increase your bets, you know, put more at stake and hope to get lucky. And sure, you might make it back, but why take that kind of risk, right?

[12:22] If you follow a nice, like, slow and steady wins the race. That's really how I play. Slow and steady wins the race, okay? Okay, so I hope that answers your question about the safety of systems. And this is how I mitigate risk.

[12:36] This is why I don't get into trouble very often. And when I do get into trouble, I deal with it as in like I take my lumps, right? If I lose, I lose. I don't increase my stakes the next day.

[12:48] I stick to the plan. I know that the way I play has such a low probability of losing. there's a high probability that I'm going to make the money back that I lost and then some, okay?

[13:00] And that's it. But it all comes down to how much risk you take per session. And it has to be a very consistent risk. And I'm talking low. So, like, for me, spin window and a modest amount, 5%, all right?

[13:16] So that's how I mitigate risk. That's how I deal with trouble. and I think that pretty much answers all of your questions Yeah you know when things don go my way I mean there nothing you can do about it You on the wrong side of variance right I just stick to the plan and in the long run you should make your money back

[13:43] So, when you sit down to play, and you play, so like, okay, the system we're playing today, everything here can stay the same, except I'm going to change this to 10, okay? So, I'll show you what this looks like.

[14:01] All right. So this is my spin window. All right. This is the RIF. There is, like you said, okay, you saw two runs of 10. I'm assuming it was colors. Did you say that it was colors? No, you didn't. But, you know, you said you saw two runs of 10. I'm assuming it was colors. Those are the easiest patterns to identify.

[14:26] and you should see two runs, actually three runs of any color at any given point in a 24-hour period. Roughly one every 800 spins, you're going to see, you know, a run of 10 of one of the colors, okay?

[14:40] Now, we're talking about all even bets here, okay? So every single even bet, within about 268 spins on average, one of those even bets is going to have produced a run of 10, okay?

[14:54] So, I don't want to be around that long to wait. So, my spin window for this is 54 spins. Now, let me ask you this. When you sit down to play for just, say, 20 or 30 spins, how often do you really see a run of 10?

[15:09] Not very often, right? Now, to your point, you had said that, you know, you've been, you said, I'm playing outside bets with 12 progressions.

[15:21] in one day I saw 10 losses twice already. Okay, well, if you're sitting there all day and you saw two runs of 10, then that lines up perfectly. But I don't sit there all day,

[15:33] or at least with money on the table, okay? If you're sitting there all day, you're going to lose, I guarantee it. There's no situation in the world where you can have any system that won't lose. It doesn't matter how robust it is.

[15:45] A run of 12 happens, you know, on average, like just over once a day. So, and there's variance, right? Sometimes it can happen twice in a day. Sometimes you might go a day without it happening. But if you just sit there and constantly play, you're going to lose your money.

[15:59] You can't sit there and play all day. You literally have to pick your moments, go in, play, and then get out. And in a very narrow window. Like for me, it's 5% and 50 spins. That's my window.

[16:11] So what are the chances of a run of 10 coming the moment I sit down and start to play? They're very slim. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it's very improbable. I mean, think about it.

[16:23] Like I just asked you guys, when you sit down to play, what are the chances, or how often do you see a run of 10 right away when you sit down to play? I'm sure you see that sometimes. You know, you turn on the monitor and you loaded up your game page,

[16:38] and then you saw a big streak there already. Like, whoa, look at that big run. Sure, it happens, right? But most of the time, it's just like every other ordinary day. You sit down, you start playing, and there's no streaks after a while, when they come, right?

[16:52] But it's very improbable. And one more probability tip I'm going to give you guys, and I just thought of this a little while ago as to what also might help my success, but I play at just about the exact same time every single day.

[17:05] So let's suppose a run of 10 comes tonight at 9.45 at night. That's usually when I'm at the table playing. So a run of 10 comes tonight at 9.45, and I lose, right? Well, tomorrow night I'm going to be playing at the same time.

[17:18] What are the chances of a run of 10 coming tomorrow night at 9.45 again, right? It's very improbable. Wouldn't you agree, right? So if you also play at the exact same time every day,

[17:32] the probability of the same thing happening or whatever happened yesterday happening today at the same time is extremely improbable. I think you'd have to agree, right? So I think that's another way that we can mitigate our risk.

[17:45] So I hope that answers all of your questions, and that's how I mitigate risk. I play systems that have a high probability of winning, and I mitigate my risk by understanding the risk of the system,

[18:00] like I'm showing you here on the risk calculator, and staying for a fraction of the overall risk. This is the overall risk. This is the fraction, right? So that's how I do it, and I've been able to stay ahead of the game for, well, over two years now.

[18:15] I've been playing with house money for more than two years. And that doesn't mean I don't lose, guys. I do lose. But the ratio for me is about one to three. On average, so I'll play about 15 sessions and win, and then lose one.

[18:27] And by the way, this is when I was playing for 10%. I wanted to show you guys, because I think that playing for 5%, the money's going to come in a little bit slower, but I think the math even shows that I should win a lot more in the long run.

[18:40] So that's what I'm going to go now and do. So, standing for a modest 5%, I should be able to get a massive winning streak, right? So, anyways, that's the whole idea, guys.

[18:52] Mitigate your risk, stay for short periods of time, and get in and get out as quickly as you can. And you should end up ahead in the long run, as long as you're not playing junk systems, right? You know, even money bets are really safe.

[19:06] I would say stay away from 12-number systems. the variance is too wide, there's a higher probability of you running into that long streak of numbers that you're not betting on, right? I would say at least start with 18 numbers

[19:18] 22, 24 number systems pretty good also, okay? So anyways guys, that said let's go ahead and head over to the roulette table and play some roulette Alright guys, so here we are at the wheel

[19:30] and I've already got BetMasters set up we're going here and we are betting on all the even bets, we've got a four misses trigger, so we're waiting for four misses, and then we start placing bets, six level progression, and it's martingale plus.

[19:45] So here we go. And yeah, and to address one more comment that I got in YouTube, and I see these all the time where somebody will just throw in, you know, this comment, they'll say, you can never beat the house edge.

[20:01] I think that's so funny, because you can. Actually, sorry, let me rephrase that. You're right, you can't beat the house edge. You're never going to eliminate the unfair payment on your wage. It's true, right?

[20:13] But it's not the house edge that beats you. Think of it this way. And I explained this in the last video too but I have to say it again because the comment has recently come between these videos But eliminate the zero from the wheel Forget about it Okay Let pay you 36 to 1 All right Now try to play roulette without

[20:33] losing. Keep on playing the same way you play without losing. It's not going to happen. You're still going to lose at roughly the same rate, okay, because there's a probability

[20:46] of the numbers that you're not betting on coming in a sequence that's going to wipe you out. All right? You losing has nothing to do with the house edge. The house edge is simply an unfair payment on your wage

[20:58] and nothing more. All right? If you understand probabilities and you can play around them, then you increase your chances of winning. All right? Now, winning at roulette's not easy. It takes discipline. And understanding probability is probably the biggest key.

[21:12] But it is not the house edge that beats you because the house edge is in a European roulette wheel, 2.7%. That's the unfair payment on your stake. Sure.

[21:24] But when you win, you're not losing. You're winning, and you're winning, and you're... Sure, you're taking all that money in, getting slightly unfairly paid on your stake. Sure.

[21:36] But when you lose, it's because the probability of that event, well, I had a probability of coming, it came and wiped you out. all at once, not 2.7%, it's because that event had a probability of coming and it came, right?

[21:51] And every event has a probability of coming. Events that have a higher probability of coming will come more frequently. Events that have a lower probability of coming will come less frequently. It's just how it works.

[22:04] So if you're playing a system, like a 12-number system, you have a high probability of losing because you're not betting on enough of the wheel. Now, if you're betting on a 12-number system with 7 levels,

[22:17] you are betting, you're basically going to lose easily. If you have 12 levels, well, you're doing a little better. But still, I've seen 12 numbers go 25, 30 spins without being hit.

[22:31] Okay, it's very likely to happen a few times in a day, right? Because 12 numbers, the variance is so high. Now, 18. 18 is a pretty safe system.

[22:43] 18 numbers with 7 levels is about where safety really finds its middle ground. You are, you know, doing well. And a 22 number system or 24 number system, even better.

[23:01] Because now you're covering more of the wheel. You're going to see a lot more winds. you know and I've really come to like the 22 number system that I've been playing I call it the hottest 22 I love betting on individual hot numbers and

[23:13] hottest 22 is a fantastic system because it's got 5 levels 22 numbers the deeper you go the more you get paid you can actually get paid in one hit if you go to the 4th level

[23:25] we're talking 5% of your bankroll right in one spin so very nice system but anyways the whole point been trying to make here, guys, is that it's not the house edge that beats you. It's the probability

[23:38] of that event that can wipe you out happening. Nothing more. Understand your risk. Avoid the devastating loss, right? Now, I'm not saying that you can completely avoid every loss,

[23:53] but you can certainly mitigate your risk and reduce them. If you could at least lose a little bit less, then you're already going to be ahead of where you are now, right? So, yeah.

[24:08] You can't beat the house, that makes me laugh. But anyways, guys, here we are, and we've got two bets on the table now, and there we go. We won one of them, but we didn't win

[24:21] that big one, so we're going to go a little bit deeper now. Now this is level this is level 4 and we have six levels in this. I went with a six level

[24:35] progression for this because I know that a run of 10 is a fairly low probability event and even with a failure rate of 1 in 268, that's an even

[24:47] smaller risk than my hottest 18, which had a probability of failing once every 216 spins, right? So 1 in 268 is a very low probability event. And we've lost

[24:59] again, so now we are going to level 5. Now as I said earlier guys, I already know what happens here, so I'm not going to spoil it for you, but we are on level 5. We've got two bets on the wheel right now, and here we go.

[25:17] and look at that, we've got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, so if I would have only had a 6 level, or even a 7 level progression, I would have lost by now, right, because we've got 8 red

[25:33] numbers on the wheel, but there we go, I happened to win, and take in some money, and I got two units above my target, which is awesome. And so, yeah, like the total risk for this system,

[25:47] you know, I'm playing super small stakes here. The risk for this system is $120. It's a very low barrier to entry, guys. And the 5% is basically $6 or six units and very easy to make.

[26:00] Did that, what's that, 12 spins. Very, very easy to do, right? I could stay for more spins if I wanted to, but I'm not going to. Why would I want to risk it? I made my 5%, I'm going to leave,

[26:13] and tomorrow is another day, right? So this is an example of how I mitigate my risk, guys. I hit my target, I'm gone no matter what, and I will not play again today. I'm going to play tomorrow at exactly the same time, right? So anyway, guys, that's it. I hope you were able

[26:30] to take something away from this, and thank you very much for your questions and your comment. I do greatly appreciate it, and I hope that I was able to answer everything for you. And yeah, so on that note, guys, you guys take care.

[26:44] Again, I really hope you enjoyed the video. Have a wonderful day, and I will see you in the next one. Bye for now.

[27:05] They prove numbers don't lie. The math goes to...