Pro Sports Betting Strategy — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] Come on, man. Trying to go live. Trying to go live. There we go. Yo, what's up, guys?

[00:14] How's everyone doing? I think I should be live now, but let me check real quickly. How's everyone doing, man? Happy Saturday. I just want to make sure this stream is working,

[00:30] and then we are completely good to go. What's up, everyone? Hey, yo, yo, yo. Let's get some bets locked in. I know I missed the earlier NBA games, but dude, I flew back from Atlanta

[00:45] today. What's up, guys? What's up, No Limit JP? Hopefully no nosebleeds. Yeah, hopefully no nosebleeds, pick six, thank you sir, pick six and better, anyways, people want a bunch

[00:58] of sportsbooks, let's see where the value is, I know there's a profit boost on pick six, so we probably want to do some pick six, I think they have an NBA boost, but give me

[01:13] a sec, I'm just thinking, where do we want to start, are there any other, sorry, are there any other good promos, prize picks? Whoa. Let's see Sleeper as well. Oh shit.

[01:28] Yo, so this play on prize picks looks super good. Carlos Alcaraz versus Dimitro Grigor. Dude, what are these guys' names? Anyways, the first pick I'm going to go with is Carlos

[01:43] Outgrass game, oh shit, this game's about to start, no, is this game live, I'm confused, no, it starts at 3.30, I don't know why it says live, we want to take the over 18 games,

[01:57] so again, prize picks, you know, it's a fixed payout sportsbook, dude, what, come on, prize picks is a fixed payout sportsbook, you take the over, you take the under, you're getting

[02:09] the same payout, you can see Pinnacle, especially because we're close to game time, they have pretty high betting limits, and, you know, they're a super sharp book for, like, tennis, they have the over heavily favored, so it's like, okay, that's the play we want to be

[02:22] on, but we also got to find some other stuff, oh shit, so Jaden Bradley is a heavy underdog to go over on ProfitX, which is a really sharp book, so we're going to take that, and this

[02:35] Looks like the most random play of all time. It doesn't even have NBA. But if this is where the value is, this is where I'm betting. So all these plays just from odds, Jim.

[02:47] Come on, man. So let's go here. Oh, shit, they have some discounts, too. Wait, what did we want to be on? Under 49.5 significant strikes. So this would be a three-pick entry.

[02:59] Again, this play's super good. I'm kind of surprised. Minus 148 favorites to go over. Can someone put a link in the chat? This is just a three-pick entry on PrizePix.

[03:14] Dude, my allergies are so fucking bad, bro. Follow me on Instagram. Yo, can someone post a link? I promise you. Pick 6 has WNBA. Follow me on Instagram. Anyways, links in the chat.

[03:28] So this is the first play we want to get in. if we don't want to waste too much time on prize picks, what you can do is we can just replace, you know, we can do something like this, we can just throw in the UFC discount on Max Holloway.

[03:46] Dude, why does Shea wear stupid shit like this, bro? Why, dude? Do any of you people think this is fashion? It is crazy, man. I don't know,

[04:00] I've never been into fashion, but it's wild what is stylish. Also, holy moly, dude, my tweet from yesterday about Wendy, I literally went to bed and I woke up and it was viral as fuck.

[04:14] So, go like my tweet. I'm very surprised, but let's see what we can do on, damn, there's a lot of value on Bovada. Okay, people wanted pick six first, though, so maybe we start there.

[04:30] Because they have some promos and stuff. Do we want to ride Shea over? What do you guys think about Shea?

[04:43] Over 38.5 PRs. They're playing the Warriors. Or I apologize. It's not 38.5. It's over 35.5 PRs.

[04:55] I mean, the first thing I always try to do, and you should always try to do when you're betting. Just make sure you're finding some value in the market. So you can see prize picks. I shaved the line higher. So it's like, okay, this seems decent.

[05:07] But what else do you have for me, bitch? So we have Shea over. Again, they have a profit boost if you want to use a profit boost. But I'm trying to think.

[05:21] Hmm. What else do we want to go with? You know, so I have Shea over. Ideally, we can do a three-pick entry on pick six. You guys like riding shade tonight?

[05:35] What the fuck? 51K likes. Bro, I know. It's crazy, man. I went to bed. Was drinking a beer fired off that tweet. Woke up. It's on Bleacher Report. I was like, damn.

[05:48] Everyone loves Wendy. Do you like any money lines? Oh, look at money lines. man the only problem with money lines is you know there's just like not a lot of books unfortunately in California anymore like they got rid of flip

[06:09] they got rid of read that there's no fan duel I'm currently in California I was just in Atlanta I streamed a bit in Georgia dude Atlanta sucks if you can avoid it don't go to Atlanta

[06:22] That airport is horrible. They lost my bag. They lost my bag. I had two flight delays. I had a 75 minute wait to get through security.

[06:37] I mean, it was just like ridiculous. Anyways, here's what I'm running on. This is a pick six play. If you haven't used the profit boost, add on the profit boost. I think it's under promos or whatever.

[06:49] and this is where we're going to get locked in. Dude, also, the last six-six play I was on, dude, oh my gosh, I got hooked so badly on Jokic.

[07:04] Literally, like, three seconds left in the game, the Lakers have no chance of winning, and of course, they decide to foul him. Of course, they decide to foul him and give Jokic a trip to the free throw line, bro.

[07:17] why are we doing this? Why do we do this, man? Dude, how much does Shea's sweater cost?

[07:32] That's what I really want to know. Fuck me. Okay, what book do you guys want to look at? I'm kind of open to whatever. So we did a little bit of prize picks.

[07:44] There's a shit ton of value on Bovada. I mean Bovada is available basically everywhere. Let's see if we can get this play in Do they have a search button They do So let see Alex Mickelson plus 100 This is a tennis play Some of you guys were asking for money lines and it already bumped

[08:08] So it's already bumped. Never mind. We're not going to be able to do that.

[08:26] Anyways, whatever. Let's see what else we got. So, we have some value on Better. There's a lot on PrizePix. What do we want to do, man?

[08:39] Maybe you need to let me just, before I forget, let me try to get in some of these Sleeper promos. So, we have Cody Brundage. No, wrong Cody. Sleeper, again, it's a kind of shitty book just because they charge a lot of juice.

[08:53] uh what are we doing man come on where are the promos sleeper just charges a lot of juice which is obviously the downside of it but

[09:05] aside from that it's a halfway decent book so I assume that's not a good play although we could look what else do they have so they have a couple college basketball booths NHL MMA so maybe we try

[09:21] to do a little more sleeper in a bit, again, it's just like, they charge so much juice on sleeper, it's a hard book to find value on, in my opinion, um, shit, man, we got people

[09:34] asking for better, so let's check out better, and let's see what we can do, I'm just ripping through sportsbooks right now, man, so the first player I'm gonna go with is just from,

[09:47] you know, I guess this play from Odds Jam. Mastin, you can also get this on PrizePix. Over one and a half blocked shots, so you can see his under, heavy underdog, so his over

[10:00] is the more favored outcome, and you don't just have to look at ProfitX. I mean, these peer-to-peer betting sites like ProfitX, NoVeg, Calci, Polymarket are pretty sharp, but you can see here, like, literally every sportsbook has his over pretty heavily favored,

[10:15] So, this seems like a good play. Boy, it is good to be back. So, come on, bro. So, we want Matheson over one and a half blocked shots.

[10:28] That's a good first play. We could try to do some NBA live betting. If there's any games at quarter breaks or something like that.

[10:41] But, let's see. like live betting, at least in my opinion, it's way too hard to do unless the game's at, you know, end of a quarter or a timeout break. So it actually looks like the Hawks game is at a timeout break.

[10:55] So maybe I do switch back to live. And we have Jalen Johnson. Because there is a lot of live value. The only problem is and it's already back on.

[11:07] Okay, never mind. because I was about to take Jalen Johnson over in PRs, or actually, and now it's suspended. And now you can see it's 33.5. So they just had the line too low.

[11:19] Like, they had him at 31.5. I was trying, like, every other book, 33.5. Just trying to day trade them, but unfortunately, they bumped it too quick. What about any other games going on?

[11:34] Man, let's go back to pre-match. and let's see what we can do, some of you guys are going to be pissed at me because I'm doing college basketball, but honestly, you should be happy that we are live and we are streaming,

[11:50] ooh, so if you can't do college better, like, Underdog Fantasy, you know, they improved their payouts recently. On the other hand, better reduce their payouts. A little ridiculous,

[12:05] but I don't know what to tell you. Um, shit, man, come on. So I have four picks so far,

[12:21] right? The only over is the hockey play. Um, better recently, like, five pick entries are their best flip type, but they recently, like, slightly made the payouts worse.

[12:33] Now it's just the same as prize picks. But if you can't do, if you can't play college, just remove the two college plays and run a five pick, or sorry, a three pick perfect play, 6X payout, because that's like the second

[12:50] best type of flip, and honestly, it's pretty marginal, the difference. But anyway, here's the play. Can someone put a link in the chat, please? Can someone put a link in the chat, please? I'm sorry for yapping your ear off.

[13:03] Just trying to share some knowledge, man. With Sleeper's Crazy Vig, are these profit boosts even plus EV? Definitely. I mean, definitely.

[13:17] Cozy Trashfire still down in these? Yeah, where is Cozy Trashfire? thank you guys for putting the link in the chat, man, thank you Cozy Trashfire, I love you,

[13:35] I love you, ooh, dude, we may have to nuke something else on, ooh, on pick six, man, but anyways, give me a sec, I'm just trying not to get distracted,

[13:51] so better, like, it's kind of fucking stupid sportsbook, but, here's like a different option because again I don't know they're giving me only $50 per play

[14:17] so I just switched out one of the plays with Keontae George I think this is solid as well Again, sometimes when my phone's weird, I just like, I gotta disconnect it to get the bet locked in. Which I did.

[14:29] But let's see what else we got. Okay, let's reload some of this shit. So, I'm done with better for the day. Boy, better.

[14:42] What do we want to do? Because there is some value on Bovada. here's a cross market arbitrage so one of these two bets got to be profitable it's like okay

[14:55] so maybe we run a little parlay why do you play parlays you can run it as a straight bet you can do whatever you want i mean if every bet in your parlay is plus ev then your parlay is going to be

[15:08] plus EV, um, what the fuck, man, what the fuck, man, why do they make this sportsbook so complicated, okay, so we want to be on the over two and a half cross market, again,

[15:25] all these books, like, they have so many lines up, we're just trying to zone in on the rare few bets, bro, that actually have value and edge. So Bovada had pretty shitty betting

[15:39] limits. Most of these sportsbooks, I don't even know why I'm just saying Bovada, most of these sportsbooks had pretty shitty betting limits. Cause they suck. Um, who is Ty Jerome?

[15:51] Is that that white boy Yeah So I got two picks so far No dude I wanted to parlay it What the fuck anyways maybe I just run some straight bets Ty Jerome under four and a half assists again it arbitrage to Novig right so we know one

[16:13] of these two plays has to be profitable, Novig's a super sharp book, and then you can just look at other data points, like, I'm definitely a data-driven sports bettor, I'm not just betting random shit with my gut, like, every other book has his under as a much bigger favorite,

[16:26] Like, Pinnacle, a super sharp book. This is just the odd sham sharp money tool. Minus 165 favorite to go under. You know, FanDuel. Like, you have so many data points as a sports better. It's crazy.

[16:39] What's up, Alex? What up, MPBaller10? Yo, I'm 21 finally. Nice. Now it's time to lose your virginity, bro.

[16:52] That's one thing I learned in Georgia. A lot of virgins. a lot of people did a lot of abortion protests oh shit

[17:04] Cameron Boozer oh damn Duke UNC is tonight man is Duke UNC tonight? why am I not at this game?

[17:17] dude I was at the last Duke UNC game when fucking Duke lost on a buzzer beater and I was wearing Duke gear at UNC, sitting courtside, only person there, so underdog again, if you're just tuning in,

[17:34] better payouts now, two pick entries are optimal, two pick entry, this is what I'm running, what was I going to say, yeah dude, I got spat on, I got called a pussy, so you can see Pride Picks has his line at 37.5, anyways, this game starts in like 20 seconds,

[17:51] so try to move, like, I mean, I'm trying to give people time to bet it, go this game starts in like 30 seconds bro come on come on let's go okay so we have boozer under and i don't even know who the second guy is

[18:07] something sims under one and a half assists bro i hate this book what are you talking about bitch We don't offer pick'em in California?

[18:22] Yes, you do. What are you talking about? What are you talking about?

[18:36] What are they talking about, man? Did Underdog get banned too? If so, I literally am on the next flight to Virginia. What are you talking about?

[18:48] What are they talking about? Yo, is anyone in California? Pick six, please.

[19:00] Alex used to love me. I still love you. I thought I was supposed to lose it by 25, bro. Honestly, a lot of you guys in my Twitch chat need girlfriends. According to my Twitch analytics, the average age on these streams...

[19:15] Yo, seriously, though, what is wrong with underdogs? Yo, is anyone in California, does this shit work for you guys or am I an idiot? Am I an idiot? Because there's a lot of value on underdogs and I'm going to be pretty fucking pissed, bro.

[19:31] If they got rid of this. So here's the second play. Make sure you select the right game because these esports guys go hard as piss.

[19:43] Sometimes I play like four games in a day. Anyways, this is a solid two-pick entry. I just, what is going on? Dude, everywhere I go, it's a different fucking error, what

[19:56] is developer mode? I'm not in developer mode, I'm in sports betting mode, bro, on the bright side, I have like four different phones I can try on, anyways, this is ridiculous, dude,

[20:15] she's ridiculous man let's go back to Bovada they'll take my action um yeah what happened to this Michael Backlund play

[20:28] we were trying to bet it and then I think I don't know plus 130 no come on man here we go

[20:42] okay Yo, so Bovada's actually halfway decent. They're going to give me 300 bucks on this. So there we go.

[20:55] Yo, so we're getting in some bets. We're doing some good stuff. That's exciting. Again, pick six has some discount, so I gave out a play on pick six. Here's what we ran on pick six.

[21:07] Oh, sheesh. But there's some other good value. So, what we can do is we can try to get another play locked in.

[21:19] I hate the word frame-mog, bro. Stop telling me I'm frame-mogging, you dumbass. Let's go here. Let's go to pick six.

[21:31] Shit, dude. We could try to do some live betting at the end of a quarter. Let's check real to see what is the dealio. Aaron Wiggins is not a real person.

[21:43] Wells, over in threes, Wiggins, under 19.5 PRAs, so this play's solid, I mean, you look at any other data point, also, you're not Andrew Wiggins, you're Aaron Wiggins, under 19.5 PRAs, that looks solid,

[22:11] Jalen Wells, pretty big favorite to go over, I mean, you know, FanDuel minus 146, like, whatever, eh, Pornhub, um,

[22:29] well, let me bet more on Miles Turner, I do kind of like this play for tonight, over one and a half threes, but let's see, they may say no,

[22:41] Oh, dude, I don't know why they're taking some action on Miles Turner. Taking some action on Miles Turner. Oh, shit, Pistons are up.

[22:53] It's the end of the first quarter. So let's go back here. Let's see if there's anything live. And what we want to do is we want to type in the Pistons game. Let's see. E

[23:07] If you wanted something, Claxton over 19.5 PRAs, that would be a decent replacement.

[23:19] Do you guys need a link for this? I apologize. I apologize. I apologize. Sorry, I missed Bovada. Can you go back, please?

[23:31] Girthmaxing. What is Girthmaxing? Dude, this is how I know I'm getting old. I don't know what girth maxing is. I don't know what girth maxing is.

[23:47] Am I stupid? Let's see here. Where are you, bro? Coward? Dude we actually getting in a fuck ton of bets on Bovada I feel like I gonna be able to run up this sports sportsbook how do I see all my bets that I placed I don remember this looks whoa this looks really good I mean

[24:13] most books literally have them favored to go under, right, like, Prophet X, pretty short book, is under favored, FanDuel, I mean, it's like 50-50, and we're getting plus 110, obviously,

[24:26] think if you can get a 50-50 bet at plus 110. That's a pretty good trade. Spencer, under and rebounds. Oh, little baby. So this is solid as well. What? Did they really just

[24:44] increase it to plus 115? That doesn't make much sense. Damn, bro. That's solid. That would be a solid arbitrage bet as well. Baby.

[24:56] Let's see what we got. Let's bet the rest of the bankroll.

[25:08] Okay, yo, so there's your play. I just walked in. Bovada.

[25:20] Oh, shit.

[25:35] Let's see. Drew Dober. Nope. Shit, man. Okay, so I don't know what happened with this UFC play, but I do not see it. Drew Dober.

[25:48] Bro. Oh, so there's actually a lot of good shit on this book. Jalen Williams, under 8.5. This isn't even the good Jalen Williams. This is the corny as fuck Jalen Williams.

[26:02] I hate you! Jalen Williams, under 8.5 rebounds, only on the Emmy 60 box pro. Bobada kind of has a lot of value. Again, cross market, so you know one of these two bets has to be plus EV or profitable.

[26:16] Whatever. Dude, a lot of value on the unders on this book. Jalen Wells, under three and a half rebounds. Give it to me, mom. Baby.

[26:28] Let's see what we got here. Okay, and I'm going to finish betting all that, but what do I want to do? Penis.

[26:41] Penis. What do we want to do, man? Who is Owa Dered's wing? Let's see what we got.

[26:58] Hmm. Okay. Again, there's a pretty sick prize pick discount. But we already used it.

[27:14] Alex spent a couple hours in Atlanta and is turning up some little baby. bro 100% that's all we listen to in Atlanta Asian Duke Dennis NBA Graffiti

[27:26] NBA Youngboy yo I love that song Loco for Latinas you got a crazy fucking twitch name we're too busy money matching that's what we're trying to do what's up LBGIT YouTube

[27:39] I love you what's up LBGIT YouTube I love you what do we want to do though so there's Mike Mastin

[27:51] play I mean I said it earlier you can also get it on prize pick Shay you look so stupid Shay looks so stupid in that photo but anyways over one and a half lock shots again I don't really look at historical data

[28:03] granted this guy hasn't been oh shit Warriors Moneyline plus 530 oh shit no I forgot no they banned Flick here I was going to say

[28:15] that's a shit ton of liquidity, higher liquidity, higher confidence in your edge, but again, like, they banned it, so, I can't bet on it here, I could have if I was still in Atlanta, but I'm not, sheesh, so, let me get rid of Fliss, sorry guys, well, hopefully you guys

[28:40] can get it locked in, I mean, dude, Bovada's kind of a buck with value right now, kind of crazy, um, let's see here, let's see here, bro, again, they have a discount if you haven't

[29:03] already used something, um, but this is what I'm gonna run, so another three pick entry,

[29:15] again, like, sure, whatever, five pick flex plays are technically optimal, and I'm gonna start doing content, you know, sports betting videos on my YouTube, again, as well, check

[29:27] it out, check me out over on YouTube, but what was I gonna say, man, is, um, what was I gonna say, yeah, dude, it's pretty annoying that they now just, I mean, granted, I'm getting

[29:46] a lot more sportsbooks, like, I started to add Bovada to the rotation, which is pretty nice, because there's a lot of value on it, and maybe I will get limited harder, I just haven't used this book a ton, so we have Scotty Pippen under two and a half rebounds, plus

[30:03] 165, that's crazy, that's a massive arbitrage bet, right, like, heavy liquidity on his over at minus 145, what are they doing, the only problem is, I think, I just hit the bet max

[30:19] button, and it looks like they're, yeah, they're just gonna give me 120, so, but I mean, I'll take it. This is why I always say, like, sports betting, really, bro, it's a volume game.

[30:33] It's a volume game. You need to be placing a lot of bets, because the second you start winning, these books, they're not going to let you bet a billion dollars, unfortunately.

[30:46] so it's a volume game I mean there are days I'll play 500 bets maybe not 500 but definitely 100

[30:58] so I only have 133 45 we place a lot of bets on Bovada I mean there was limitless value on Bovada but I assume I'll get limited a bit harder maybe not I don't know we'll see so I don't have money

[31:12] left in here, so let's get rid of it, what I really want is a pick six play, that would be optimal, I mean, I would like a pick six play if possible, hmm, hmm, Jared McCain under

[31:37] 12.5 points, or 11.5 points. You guys like fading Jared McCain? FanDuel, under is massively favored. ProfitX, pretty sharp book, under is massively favored.

[31:51] You could run Dunn under, McCain under, Wells over. I mean, that would be a decent play. PickTex actually has a decent amount of value today. But regardless, I'm going to call it a day.