Simple Gold Trading Strategy — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] Hello everyone, this is TradeGanade and in this video, I am going to introduce, test, optimize and finally evaluate the most simple mechanical trading strategy for XRU USD, the

[00:19] Gold. And by testing, I mean observing and carefully reading about 12 years of 30-minute charts consisting of more than 2,000 trades. Imagine if writing a journal takes 30 seconds per trade,

[00:37] 2,000 trades would take roughly 1,000 minutes, and for optimizing, 1,000 different settings means 1 million minutes at least, and this takes around 17,000 days or 45 years of non-soft work.

[00:58] But before we continue, I have to warn you, you're going to learn really advanced content in a considerably short video, so get ready. Okay, I've talked about 45 years, I don't have that kind of time.

[01:13] You don't have it too. So I coded an expert for MT5 Metatrader and used optimization to find the best settings. And that's not all.

[01:25] Past performance does not guarantee future profits. Through many based evaluated trading studies, I used the best of them to estimate probabilities of profit in the future. The sad fact is that most YouTubers are not real traders.

[01:42] In the real world of trading, past performance is somewhat correlated with the future. But any good performance in the past is not going to repeat itself. We, the real traders, observe the past carefully, but we know what we need is an estimation

[02:00] of the future. Let's go to our SIMPA strategy. As I said earlier, this strategy is absolutely SIMPA, just three indicators. As an Ichimoku close, Ichimoku is a useful indicator with various theories, using lines,

[02:17] signals and dynamic and aesthetic levels. However, for this strategy, we use the simplest one, picking the cloud. So, delete every other thing, expect the cloud, and trade.

[02:33] Tip number one. The simpler your trading strategy is, the more chance a trader has to optimize it in a way that works in the future. The second indicator is average to range ATR.

[02:48] And, clip number 2 is that ATO100 works most of the time better than the default ATO, the ATO14. So, I use it instead of the default length 14.

[03:03] I leave the smoothness node as RMA, which is rolling moment average as it is right now. Well, what are we going to do with optimization?

[03:17] I've tried to find the best setting for this strategy over the last 12 years and that's it. Okay, the rectangles which are hidden are not important at all.

[03:29] So especially use of the steps that I don use for this strategy And the settings for Ichimoku are just clear just copy them from mp5 to the trading view or whatever

[03:43] platform you like and as you can see tank and sand is 9, Kijun sand is is 100 fold and sequence 10b is 312. The lag in the span is 6s104 which is like

[03:59] Tizen's span. And now let's see some signals. Okay this one is a self signal of an indie cloud and cloudblood.

[04:20] And this one is a buy signal. Open Indicload and close above it. These are settings for ATR. The SLPAC is 1.1.

[04:33] It means our surplus should be set 1.1 times ATR. The all-to-all PAC is 2. Simply our reward is just 2 times bigger than our risk.

[04:46] If we lost $100 in a losing trade by ignoring the commission swap and split, we'd gain approximately $200 in a winning one.

[05:00] It means our TP is two times bigger than our stop loss. Now let's search for trades. Look at this example again. Our entry point is here, right on opening of the next candle.

[05:14] Our ATR is 18.570, thus our stop loss is 20.027.

[05:26] Our take profit is just 2 times of stop loss.

[05:44] Ok, now I need a bullish example too. This is our bar signal.

[05:58] The entry is here. The ATR is around 12.509 and the stop loss is roughly 13.760.

[06:10] And this was a phase one. Visit the stop loss and the opening candle. This is clearly another one.

[06:29] Another failed one, actually. Don't rush, take it easy. Most but profitable traders are in their winning rate below the 60%. draw profit goals because of their risk to reward ratio, not because of their winning

[06:46] rate. But this one, again, I won't do the math. We are pretty sure that it was a winning trade. Risk amount is $25 per trade.

[06:58] It is not important at all. But the main question most beginners don ask how can you be sure about profitability in the future And the answer is we don Yeah we simply don We just evaluate the past and estimate the future This is the equity curve of

[07:20] all backtests. In the middle of 2016 we saw a great upward move. That move was followed by some semi bearish move. Finally it broke out of the bearish

[07:33] channel and actually it was a bearish range and started moving up again. Specifically around March of 2022 another great output move, pure profit, was seen.

[07:48] Right here we had a kind of trend line which could stand two price action theories. Yeah, this is the equity curve trading and it works well.

[08:01] I also use the seasonal forecast formula in Excel. Four good months and two bad months. That's a good sign of future growth. The normal forecast is not so optimistic about our strategy.

[08:17] A minus point we should consider. Seasonality of months is great. Only the third month of future trades, which is December, is risky. December is considered awkward because we just ended our test on last days of October.

[08:33] Forcast with 60% confidence levels, such as issues abound in this strategy, another bad sign. Ok, in here you can see some evaluation scores.

[08:45] Ok, let's talk about Sharper Issue and Recovery Factor. Recovery and Sharper Issues are great. Great enough to cover some previous response.

[08:57] The initial deposit, which is just for testing, has minimal effect on the final result. And 97% story quality is acceptable for me.

[09:10] Now let's head to other factors. The performance of the previous month is important. Yeah, as expected, December is not good again. We might consider turning the Expert Advisor off for that month and turning it back on

[09:28] in January. Hours of the day are good for that too, but I don't use them since there isn't enough statistics behind them. Attention, this was just profitable in XRU USC and for just 30 minute charts.

[09:47] is obvious it works awfully in some other instruments even in the same timeframe. Honestly, the more instruments a strategy works well with the same setting, the more chance of profit it gets in the near future. This strategy

[10:03] last points in that part too. But I think this strategy, actually this setup is still a good one. This setup is optimized for this

[10:15] instrument and this time plan. Despite what some other traders claim, some maybe beginners, some I can say scammers say, and they claim, most mechanical trading

[10:29] strategies, you know I'm just talking about mechanical trading strategies, not generally trading or trading strategies, most of them, most mechanical trading strategies tend to work only in specific markets and timeframes If you find a setup that is profitable in EUR USD or EUR

[10:51] in a specific timeframe, let's for instance consider a one-hour timeframe, it is only profitable in that timeframe and that instrument.

[11:04] Yes, it might be accidentally profitable in other instruments and other timeframes too, but will not allow to use in other timeframes. And every trader who has claimed that a mechanical

[11:17] strategy and setup should be profitable in all timeframes and all pairs or claimed that I have a strategy that is working in all timeframes and all pairs, you know, all pairs,

[11:32] I mean all instruments, he or she is lying. There isn't such a thing in the world. There isn't the holy grail in the trading world when we are talking about mechanical trading

[11:44] strategies. You should just find mechanical trading strategies, test them on a specific timeframe and instrument and let it work itself. Now, let's head to the next topic. According

[11:59] to the seasonal evaluation, I expect the next six months to be profitable for this setup. We are now on 26th of October and I will upload this video in a day or two

[12:13] and we should wait for the end of April 2026 to see if it was profitable or not. For the last vote, with all kind of evaluation and all kind of methods that are used, we are

[12:28] still talking about probabilities and I have my own risk management and my own money management is really sweet and you know loving this one this strategy if

[12:43] this strategy start to be a fail in the next six months yeah I might lose some things but I happen I will not lose all of my trading capital it is a small part

[12:56] of this so take care of your heart and money please and also I have to say again it is just for educational purposes I just want to show you how to

[13:09] evaluate the trading strategy you can use it too but I'm not responsible for that do your own research again do your own research because losing money on

[13:23] trades specifically for beginners is so hard they will leave the trading they will leave the trading market and it's not the money that they lose the most

[13:35] important thing is the opportunity to be a trader so they will lose it so take care of your hard-earned money specifically if you are a beginner and also at the end I have to say if you want the trading staff advisor for this

[13:52] This strategy is almost for free, just message me, it's all yours, the only price you pay is 2 clicks like and subscribe. And you know your likes and subscribers also encourage me to make more videos like this

[14:07] and this almost free option is only available till end of March 2026. Good day traders!