SpaceX IPO Analysis & Oil Outlook — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:05] with the likes of say the ES has really gotten mucked up. So here we're range bound. I mean, we've been range bound since early May. So all of May, all of June, all of July, here we are in August. And we have been banging around

[00:17] this rectangle for all that time without clearly without any sense of direction. This is neither bullish nor bearish. This is just kind of a hamburger grind. This is just kind of a hamburger grind. Um the what the bulls can cross the

[00:30] fingers for would be of course an escape from this rectangle and I suppose just to uh just make something up, you know, if it was like, "Hey, we're not just talking about a deal, we've got a deal and here is the entire coterie of

[00:44] Iranian delegates to talk about it." That might be enough to just jolt things up above this and and release all that pent-up energy from that rectangle. But uh we are still range bound and it's getting a little boring, I got to tell

[01:00] >> Yeah, it it it it seems that way, especially the last summer months and then especially looking at Nasdaq. Do you do you lean a little bit more towards the S&P 500? I know we've seen a little bit of a deeper sell-off in some

[01:12] of names. How do you kind of perceive those and kind of the divergence we've >> Yeah, no, it's actually kind of just the opposite. Um I mean, I'll use that as a your talking point as a as a flop to this other chart. As

[01:27] um discouraged as I am by the ES and as frustrated as I am by the ES, it's just the opposite for the NQ. I I find the NQ chart still very exciting even even on a day like this. Um

[01:40] we are up hundreds of points right now on the NQ and of course we've gone up quadruple digits since Thursday morning. Um but this is still a good-looking chart with a very substantial block of overhead supply, that is to say

[01:54] resistance. And I tend to be kind of a bottoms-up chartist. Um I don't sort of I'm going to do the following. I just look at a lot of individual names, most of which I've never heard of in my life, and and kind of find appealing patterns

[02:07] there. Um so, you know, like right now I've got like 25 positions and that sounds like a lot, but I'm really light because that I like. >> Yeah.

[02:21] 100%. Um hoping we get a little bit more of a a rally here. Do you do you I I I just wanted to ask you real quick, Tim, since I have you right here. well, uh given the volatility we've seen?

[02:35] >> Thoughts galore, sure. Uh let me just punch that up because that's this is a big week for SpaceX. Yeah. Uh of course their first earnings uh ever are Tuesday after the close. I will be watching with great interest. Um

[02:49] and uh so Let's talk a couple of things. First, I Tastytrade we do all kinds of videos that people can watch, and the one I did that got way more views than any other was about SpaceX

[03:01] >> And yeah, and and um you know, it's hard to come up with an analog for that, but the closest I came up with in the video, and this was I did this about 2 weeks one or two weeks

[03:14] before the IPO, was Facebook, now known as Meta. And I the the link I saw was you've got this charismatic world-famous founder, you've got this sort of cultural phenomenon going on. I mean, when Zuck did his IPO, bro was wearing a

[03:28] hoodie, you know, on CNBC, that sort of thing. And um and Elon's way more famous than than Zuckerberg was at the time. And um a very very hot sector, in this And um a very very hot sector, in this case uh satellite / space cargo and AI.

[03:42] And the thing about Facebook is that as as >> Yeah. >> And it went down 61% from its IPO to its bottom some months later and it took like 15 or 16 months

[03:56] if you had bought into the IPO for it to even be be be flat. >> Now, it went on from the bottom to a 400, you know, like 40X gain or something like that. It was uh enormous success, but my point in the video was

[04:10] don't be surprised if SpaceX is a complete dud for a while, maybe even Um so uh I've I've I've got a well-earned always say the same thing. I want it to go up, but it's probably going to go

[04:25] down for a while. And my my guess based on nothing is that we're going to see double digits on this uh after earnings come out and it will be a while, some months before in retrospect we can say, "Ah, that was

[04:39] the bottom." Um I think it's just going to keep grinding away down this on. >> Yeah, no, I I've heard where they they So, I'm just curious about how that might add to some of the downwards

[04:52] really interesting point you brought up about Meta and their IPO. It's kind of you know, the the hype that we get from social media and headlines and the way would have kind of thought that would have a blood into the hype of these IPOs

[05:06] Zuckerberg wasn't relevant, you know, back in the day, but feels like it's a terms of, you know, being a CEO of a company in today's age. >> Yeah, well, the market uh the market is designed to uh you know, confuse and

[05:21] surprise people. Um and you're right about the forthcoming uh volume of of shares out there because 95, 96% of all the shares aren't available. And the the theory along has been that, you know, starting

[05:35] 9th that 95% is going to come free. Not really cuz Elon's is locked up for a year, but you know, a lot is coming free. And the theory is that, "Well, if you're going to get this stocks flooding

[05:49] It could go up. People could be surprised because the fact is that, you you got to look into the heads of all those insiders and say like, what are like, I'm not selling at these prices. I can wait.

[06:03] >> You know, which may well be the case. So, we we could get a complete surprise. I mean, after the unlock happens, the sucker go springing higher, completely sucker go springing higher, completely defying expectations. So, um for myself,

[06:15] I almost think this is a stock where it's like don't even bother looking for out what's going on. It's not going away, but uh who knows what the bottom's a lot lower from here. >> Yeah. No, you're right. We'll We'll see

[06:29] Uh what what else is going to be top of mind for you as we get into the rest of the week here, uh Tim? >> Well, you know, uh naturally uh crude oil, uh let's wrap it up with crude oil because that obviously is uh

[06:41] on the one hand getting zapped today, but on the other um uh I I think we could be in for much higher prices on this. This latest peace um prices on this. This latest peace um talk has smooshed prices again, uh but

[06:55] from a charting perspective, this looks like it's kind of found a happy home uh at this new base level of around $77, $78. You know, th- this was the gap that let things higher and we've been banging around in a very volatile fashion, but

[07:10] twice now as we've gotten smacked down with the idea of like this war is going to be history soon, um it seems to be kind of reluctant to get below those that $77, $78 level. So, um you know, if

[07:25] do you think oil will be higher or lower? Um one might say, well, 2 months from now this war is bound to be over. So, of just the opposite. I think it's much more likely that we'll we're going to

[07:38] push past uh these recent highs we've seen and become a more um robust push higher in oil prices and in energy prices. So, that that's that's my guess based on what we've seen thus far.

[07:52] got a little bit of long delta in the oil, especially off this gap down. So, Tim, we'll see what we we'll see what we get over the SpaceX earnings and we'll see what Nasdaq and the S&P 500 offer us. As always, I appreciate you and your

[08:06] Uh >> All right. Bye-bye. >> Bye-bye. Uh but yeah, guys, um with that being said, we will be back here in a quick minute with some amazing

[08:20] in a quick moment. So, curious to see what we're going to get into. But, be sure to stay tuned. Nasdaq up right now, volatility collapsing. We'll see what this market gives us and we'll see you in a quick minute. Stay tuned.