Surebet Formula Explained: How to Identify Arbitrage Opportunities

[00:08] Ready, traders? Now we're going to talk about the shvet formula. Okay, as delve a little deeper into the math, not so much into demonstrations or advanced math, but so you understand basic math and

[00:25] a bit about how this whole methodology comes about. How to recognize when there's a surbet, or when... I'll tell you that there's a formula called the shvet rule or formula,

[00:40] the shvet rule or formula, and that's what I'm going to show you next. Okay, so if you want to know if an event presents an opportunity or not, then you have to

[00:54] apply this formula. The formula is as follows: 100 divided by odds one, which is obviously at bookmaker one, plus 100 divided by odds two, which is at bookmaker

[01:07] divided by odds two, which is at bookmaker two. Okay, so 100 / c1 + 100 divided by c2. two. Okay, so 100 / c1 + 100 divided by c2. c1 is equal to odds 1 from bookmaker 1, and c2 c1 is equal to odds 1 from bookmaker 1, and c2 is odds 2 from bookmaker two. Now, it's not

[01:19] very complex what we have to do, and we're going to... Visualize it within the betting sites as well, so you can see it. Okay, so let's move on to the next step. I have to apply the

[01:34] formula here to know if it 's actually correct or not. 's actually correct or not. Look, let's try to apply a survey within the same betting site, Olimpo Bet. Here, within the

[01:49] same site, you could say it's covered, and here I'm going to show you why you can't do surveys within the same betting site. Because you need to have two completely different betting sites to be able to

[02:02] completely different betting sites to be able to execute it. Look, here, more than 4.5 and less than 4.5 generate a survey, right? Let's take it here. Okay, let's go over here. Let's see, it shows up like this. Sorry,

[02:22] your parentheses: 4.5, right? That's practically how the scanner would read what we 're seeing here. 're seeing here. Here, we see that the odds are 2.25 and the

[02:37] other odds are 1.58. I ask you first, are the markets well covered? The answer is yes, they are well covered. Let's see why we can't do it within the same

[02:50] do it within the same betting site. So we put 225 and betting site. So we put 225 and 1.58. What is the installment? 2.25 and 1.58. What's going to happen? We're going to apply the survey formula. Okay.

[03:06] What is the survey formula? It tells me it's 100 divided by... let's put it here. Let's see, let's close the

[03:24] parentheses. I close the parentheses. Plus, then 100. Sorry, the installment for house Plus, then 100. Sorry, the installment for house one. This installment is for house one. It's going to be d, which is the one over here. Now we open 100 divided by the installment of which

[03:37] we open 100 divided by the installment of which house two? And what does this give me? It gives me 107. Ready, 107. Now what's going to happen? We're going to put some more installments. We're going to put the same example here, only we're going to

[03:52] put the same example here, only we're going to change the numbers. Okay, we're going to put this here to give you some examples that you should consider. Ready? Now what happens if I put the

[04:04] installment, for example, of TR and 1.5? What happens if I put the installment of, uh, let's say, I don't know... here? 3.5 and

[04:16] uh, let's say, I don't know... here? 3.5 and 1.58, just like that. Look, we get three 1.58, just like that. Look, we get three different results, okay: 107, 100, and 91. Why? Because our base, or the result of

[04:31] this mathematical formula, will make there is indeed an opportunity to take advantage of it or not. How so? Let me

[04:44] explain: if the result after applying our formula, which we have applying our formula, which we have here, gives us the following values, let's go with this: if the result is less than 100, that is, less than 100,

[05:00] less than 100, that is, less than 100, or 99.99 and below, then there is an opportunity. And what is that opportunity called? It's called a surcharge, or surcharge. Ready?

[05:12] called? It's called a surcharge, or surcharge. Ready? If the result is 100, then we neither If the result is 100, then we neither as they would say colloquially here in Peru. Okay? And what happens

[05:28] if it's greater than 100? If it's greater than 100, what happens 100, what happens then? Do we win or lose? We lose, we lose, and the house wins. Who wins? Only the betting house wins.

[05:43] So I want to explain this a little more. So it's more little more. So it's more visible. Okay, if it's greater than visible. Okay, if it's greater than 100, then we lose. If it's the

[05:58] same, we'll use the term "equal" because Excel won't let me use "equal." If it's equal to 100, you neither win nor lose. And if it's less than 100, what happens? A surcharge is generated, meaning an

[06:13] happens? A surcharge is generated, meaning an opportunity. Okay, this is exactly what we have here.

[06:25] If the result is less than 100, then there's no surcharge. If it's equal to 100, we neither win nor lose. And if it's greater than 100, we lose. Only the bookmaker wins. Now, another important point to consider is

[06:37] this: Look at the example we did with the surcharge. It gives us 107, and if it's greater than 100, there's no surcharge. Now, why is it that we don't get a surcharge? The difference from 100, or the surplus, the surplus from 100, or what

[06:53] we need to reach 100, is the percentage. In this case, if there's a surplus, it's the percentage that the bookmaker wins. There's a deficiency, bookmaker wins. There's a deficiency, meaning a missing element, in this case

[07:06] meaning a missing element, in this case 8.24. So that's what we win because there's an overbet. Okay, so in the first bookmaker's example, we see that we can't win; in fact, we lose 7.73 because the bookmaker wins that.

[07:21] So let's apply it with another example so you understand. Let's cover markets correctly. If I want to cover this with corner kicks over 7.5 and under 7.5, we see the odds are 170

[07:36] and the other odds are 2.04. Let's look at that. Let's see, 170 and 2.04. What does that give us? 107. Also, there's no

[07:48] overbet. Okay. They're all using the formula. Look, we've applied the formula. Okay, so that's what we have to do.

[08:00] Now, what I'm telling you with this, dear Sport Trader, is that while it's true you can check and see if there is indeed an overbet or not, what I recommend is that you learn to identify it. I

[08:16] calculator that... You could have it initially and apply the formula quickly, but if we're trading live events, it wouldn't be wise to calculating. Why? Because while we're doing that calculation, the odds change, and you'd have to

[08:32] another calculation, and so on, and you'd probably never even get around to making the trade. What I 'm showing you right now is the formula so you know how to identify when a surbet is generated and

[08:46] when it isn't. Now, it's just so you understand how it works. You're not necessarily going to apply it, so in the next video, I'm going to show you how you should be able to calculate properly whether there's actually a

[09:00] surbet or not. We're going to give some more examples so you can more examples so you can understand this. Okay, so for example, let's cover if I want to cover another event. Okay, up to this point. Let's see, let's

[09:16] see if I want to cover... Okay, let's not in football, let's go to an event, maybe in tennis, or basketball, or any other event. Let's go to volleyball, for example. Look, let's go to volleyball. I cover this

[09:30] with this one here. Okay, that's fine. The markets are covered. The answer is, of course, I'm going to win in any of them. Yes, I'm going to win in any of them. But if I give me a chance to win. Why? Because look, the odds are 1.10 and the other is

[09:45] 6.50. So it would be here, 1.10, let's put it in. And 6.50, what's the difference? 6.29. Which means I would lose 6%, approximately 6.30. So it doesn't generate a

[09:59] surcharge. With this, I want to make it clear and demonstrated that you can't surcharge in the same bookmaker. Okay, you can't surcharge within the same bookmaker. Okay. I want to know exactly how much. Well, it's changed now, it's

[10:14] at 61. I put the odds, for example, here in the scanner. Can I verify it? Verify, sorry, if I want to check it. 1.11 and below it was

[10:27] 1.11 and below it was 6.5, I think. I don't think that's how it 6.5, I think. I don't think that's how it was. Yes, 6.5. Look, it comes out practically was. Yes, 6.5. Look, it comes out practically 5.92. An approximation, it should come out the

[10:39] same. I don't know why, but well, there's an approximation at least. Okay. If we want to calculate Below we see the percentage here, for example, 3 with 1, 1.5 to here, for example, 3 with 1, 1.5 to calculate all 3 with 1.5, we see that there is

[10:54] practically 0.0. That is, there is neither gain nor loss. And in the other example we had placed 3.5 with 1.58, 3.5 with

[11:06] 1.58, we see that there is a gain of 8.86, practically there, it goes 8.86. So, dear Port Trader, this is how the betting site system works. In conclusion, to move on to the next video, you

[11:22] should first make sure you correctly interpret the scanner. Once you've confirmed you understand the scanner, go and search for the events within the betting sites. Once you've

[11:35] searched for them and made sure they're properly covered, then you have the option to apply the formula here. It shouldn't fail you. Always, if it's greater than 100, you're losing; if it's equal to 100, you

[11:50] neither win nor lose. We can use this if the odds change. And if it's less than 100, what happens is you create an opportunity, and obviously, Sport, see you in the next video where I'm going to

[12:03] teach you how to use this, and not necessarily the formula, but something in your trades. [Music]