Crypto Crash 2026 Forecast — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:01] sure that crypto will grow forever. New peaks, new hypes, forever. New peaks, new hypes, new coins. But 2026 is the year that will bury all this positivity. A 60-70% correction

[00:15] and Bitcoin at 50,000 is a real scenario. Today I will lay out the specific reasons why the market will collapse, and most importantly, what we will do to not just survive, but to make good money. [music] My name is Sergey. I am the author of the SRK

[00:29] twenty years of experience. Let's go. Please remember that I do not provide financial advice in my videos . Everyone is responsible for their own decisions. So be vigilant. We will now go over all the factors present in the market

[00:43] and finally discuss the action plan. So, first, let's analyze the market situation. So as not to invent anything for yourself . Let us be guided [music] only by bare facts. Let's start with the Bitcoin chart. Let's see what's

[00:56] going on here. This is Trading View for registration, of course. The link will be in the description below the video. For those who don't yet use the daily timeframe for some global picture, we can even open the weekly one. Opened

[01:09] the most accessible history. And what do we see here? We now understand that see here? We now understand that Bitcoin has risen from its last bottom of 16,000 Bitcoin has risen from its last bottom of 16,000 to 125,000

[01:22] to 125,000 at its peak. Grandpa has already shown 650% growth. We had Ipehay. The previous maximum was set in 2021. It was somewhere around 68,000. [music] That is, Bitcoin has updated its previous

[01:36] maximum, showed good growth, and now expecting any new heights from it would be rather naive. The growth has been going on for about 3 years. The typical growth phase of

[01:48] Bitcoin lasts exactly 3 years. That is, now is the time to expect Bitcoin not to grow, but to have a good correction, from where it can be picked up. A small digression so that everyone understands what cycles, phases, and all

[02:02] these [music] terms are, and what one cycle looks like in the cryptocurrency market, because some even call simple growth a cycle. Recently, somewhere I came across a bullish cycle. Well, how can you call a unidirectional movement a

[02:17] cycle? That is, a cycle is a system for us that includes all movements. We first have accumulation, then growth, then distribution, then decline. Therefore, calling it a bullish cycle or a bearish cycle is completely

[02:32] incorrect. If we want to talk specifically about growth, then this is the growth phase, the bullish phase. We still have a bearish phase, a falling phase. And, as we've already discussed, there's an accumulation phase at the bottom, when our participants build up

[02:47] their positions, and a distribution phase somewhere at the highs, when the majority of market participants, some experienced investors, begin to lock in their like this video, leave a comment,

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[03:15] Now we understand that on Bitcoin we had an accumulation phase, a growth phase. Now, with a high degree of probability, we are experiencing a distribution phase, that is, positions are being sold off and profits are being locked in . Naturally, someone is

[03:31] buying here, but the majority of those who bought bitcoins there at 16 dash 20,000 are slowly locking in profits here. Then, according to obvious logic, Bitcoin continues its cycle, that is, it goes into a falling phase, into a bearish phase, and everything starts over again. We will have

[03:47] accumulation here again, a growth phase, the bitcoin will again conquer its peaks, make a new high, fly to 250,000, let's say, half a million. Yes, this is all real, all this is quite probable, but it is

[04:02] important to understand that it is far from a fact that 250,000 cue balls from the current ones will show us. According to technical analysis, we are already seeing a fairly clear reversal of the

[04:14] upward trend and, at a minimum, a good correction. And the little guy drew all this beautifully for us . If we take into account Elliott's theory, that is, the five-wave theory, you can call it that. We have wave one, wave

[04:29] three, wave four and the fifth wave is the final one. Next we have some kind of zigzag correction. So it might look like 1, two, and three. That is, here is a large-scale zigzag on the

[04:44] weekly time frame. Of course, no one can give clear quotes here. An approximate scenario, but this scenario is repeated regularly. Further, what else do we see here in terms of technical analysis? Nobody has cancelled the basic support levels.

[04:59] Let's remove the excess and simply draw some trendy corridors. Let's see what we have here. Initially, the bit showed us this corridor. Then the rise increased, and then its rise increased even more. That is, our growth

[05:14] occurred through three such trend channels. It's a bit cluttered, but the price channels. It's a bit cluttered, but the price

[05:27] in the form of a channel, we can make it easier for ourselves to perceive and simply conduct these levels of support. Once. Next is support level two. We have come to him now. And the level of support is three. It turns out to be a kind of fan. I have also been

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[06:10] step-by-step instructions for installing it on a real or demo account in the We have already broken through one support. As we can see, the bitcoin missed it, but on the lower timeframes, I think there was still a reaction. Came to the second support.

[06:25] Here the price for it caught on. Well, in principle, what else can we look at here, bit by bit? Let's look at the figures he regularly draws for us. We had a double top here, an attempt at a reversal, but this is not a magic

[06:37] work. Here [music] there is a clearly expressed double top, after which a clear correction occurred. The goals are usually for this figure, this is the distance from the level of the so-called neck to the top of the head. The figure has practically

[06:52] worked. This figure usually works out there at 70 percent on this scale. And now we also have a clearly defined double top at the top, which has already fully worked out its potential to 100% . If we take it from the neck to

[07:08] the top of the head, measure it, and put this distance down, we have 100% realization. The previous reversal of the bitcoin was also through a double top, only a bitcoin was accelerating, accelerating,

[07:21] accelerating, it shot up, then it stalled, tried to renew its high here, pricked it a little and turned down through this huge double top . Of course, the figures of technical analysis are simply

[07:33] rely entirely on them; we also pay attention to trend lines and some horizontal levels. But in the current situation, it would be logical to assume that Bitcoin has indeed already shown its high in

[07:48] this growth, in this [music] growth phase, in its bullish phase, and is heading for a reversal. Plus, there is also a global figure here, the head and shoulders are visible. We have one shoulder, a head. And now we can see another shoulder. [music]

[08:02] Whether Bitcoin will make us such a drawing or not, we'll see. This is just a scenario planning suggestion. That is, it is quite possible that we are currently experiencing a decline; the chart is always being adjusted. Either it grows and

[08:16] corrects, and then grows again, or it falls, goes into correction and then falls again. And the correction may quite logically come at the retest of the trend line. But one way or another, a more global scenario of Bitcoin's downward movement is quite

[08:31] probable. In the current situation, a clear signal that Bitcoin has started to reverse will be a breakout of this minimum. That is, then the entire minimum. That is, then the entire ascending structure will break down. 74,000,

[08:44] that is, breaking through this level and securing it will give us the prospect [music] that the bet will go to feel its bottom, for example, 6050,000 with a spike in the trend line. All this is

[08:56] quite possible with us, [music] is probably brewing. And now we are discussing what kind of apocalypse awaits us in 2026. First of all, we have only talked about Bitcoins so far. Bitcoin is going to reverse. For example, I haven’t considered buying it for a long time

[09:09] , because the price has skyrocketed and is clearly on its last legs. Next, we look at Bitcoin's market dominance. Before this, dominance was growing rapidly.

[09:21] Money flowed into Bitcoin, mainly at its peak, when Bitcoin's dominance reached peak, when Bitcoin's dominance reached around 66%, meaning 66% of all money on the market was in this coin. Now, finally, the

[09:36] dominance has begun to decline. At least [music] has hope that we will see a continuation of its decline. We had this ascending corridor, the price broke through it, retested from the other side and can slowly roll on

[09:49] [music] further. Why is this interesting to us in terms of history, how does crypto move through its cycles? First, Bitcoin grows to its maximum and updates its all- time high. He did this a long time ago, he

[10:05] is, he is growing as much as possible, and is going into correction. It is heading towards a reversal, which is what we are now seeing. After this, Bitcoin's dominance falls, and against this backdrop, altcoins begin to take off. And this is not the

[10:19] alt season that we wait for every 3 months. This is the real end of the crypto market cycle. [music] The final growth in alts, which is expected right here, when the bitcoin is already on the verge of reversal, when the dominance is already starting to

[10:34] fall well over the years. That is, if you break it down, it’s already high time and, in principle, this period falls in autumn, in winter, for us. Now has shifted a little. That is, in theory, all of this

[10:48] should have happened in the fall. With the New Year just around the corner, we don’t see any growth . Altcoins are still only slowly falling. Well, some of them shoot, yes, that's true. But still, if history repeats itself, history always

[11:01] repeats itself from cycle to cycle. That is, there is a high probability that yes, decrease in Bitcoin dominance, some kind of reversal. Well, let's say he shoots up a little bit here and starts turning from this point. Altcoins

[11:15] will show their final recovery, possibly a good flight upwards. I also use the Bybit crypto exchange for my trading . This is the top crypto exchange in the world. There is a convenient [music] trading terminal, spot futures trading,

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[12:24] most important thing here is to understand that even if all this [music] happens now, it is more likely that it will not last for six months or a year. This is only [music] 2-3 months, during which you need to be as focused as possible, not be greedy

[12:39] and aim for profit-taking, rather than the constant growth of altcoins, which is really [music] brewing. If we look at the Ethereum to Bitcoin chart, when Bitcoin's growth phase ends , Ethereum takes over.

[12:54] That is, then the ether begins to grow. If we look [music] at the previous growth phase, in 2021, it was right there somewhere that we had the maximum growth rates for altcoins, and Ethereum, as we can see, began to

[13:08] grow faster than Bitcoin. That is, this graph of the ratio of ether to bitcoin shows exactly that [music] is stronger. When the chart falls, it means that Bitcoin is stronger, growing faster than Ethereum, and so on. When the graph [music] is growing,

[13:22] it means that Bitcoin is either standing still or slowly [music] drifting, falling, Ether is growing much faster. In recent years, Bitcoin has been pushing Ethereum to the floor, so to speak, and has been steadily growing stronger and stronger. Well, we

[13:36] can see this from the broadcast schedule. That is, if we open the weekly time frame, firstly, Ethereum has not updated its highs, and, in principle, everything looks like a huge sideways movement, that is, a huge accumulation. There have been attempts by the broadcaster

[13:50] to break through somewhere, but so far we haven’t seen any obvious growth here. Therefore, let's return to the Ethereum to Bitcoin chart and pay attention to the fact that historically, just as any movement on an asset develops in principle, so too does the

[14:05] [music] to always update the highs. That is, we had a high here, we updated it, we flew out in 2017, and this high has not been updated yet. If we see a renewal of this high in the

[14:20] Ethereum-Bitcoin ratio now, this will be a very, very good growth for the market, because Ethereum is now becoming a locomotive that will pull most of the altcoins on the market along with it. And as we can see, we had a descending corridor.

[14:34] This corridor is now breaking, and it is important to see that Ethereum has actually become stronger than Bitcoin. And in terms of history, right now [music] is exactly what is brewing for us. And, of course, let's look at the capitalization of altcoins without [music]

[14:48] Bitcoin and Ethereum, since these are heavy assets, and it is better to also look at the capitalization of altcoins separately. [music] We have had accessible history since 1917. That is, here in terms of altcoins, the capitalization was relatively tiny,

[15:03] capitalization was relatively tiny, about 33 billion, then it jumped to 348 billion from 3.3, that is, 10x. [music] Then they rolled down again. The middle is somewhere around 50 billion. Here we have [music] working exactly the same cycles as everywhere else.

[15:19] Then we flew out to 1 trillion. That is, at the peak, altcoins [music] already contained funds, then they corrected again and now capitalization is creeping up again. In emerging markets, in emerging

[15:33] assets, the principle of movement is one and the same [music] . That is, we have some growth, then a correction, then growth again, naturally, [music] with a new high, breaking the previous maximum. That is, globally, in our

[15:46] developing market, in developing assets, there is an upward trend over the years. Therefore, it is now logical [music] to expect an update of capitalization maximums. We see that attempts have already been made. Here we

[16:00] set the maximum in 2021, and in 2025 we are actively testing it. Now all altcoins have dropped. I think this is no secret to anyone. This is also evident from the capitalization. That is, capitalization has fallen. We can provide such trend

[16:14] support. And logically, according to history, we are now expecting a renewal of this maximum, that is [music] a breakthrough, consolidation and achievement of a new maximum in capitalization, for all altcoins. Now the most important

[16:27] conclusion. What's the plan? What to do with all this and what to prepare for. As has already been discussed, the end of the growth cycle across the entire market is really approaching [music]. Bitcoin has most likely already reached its maximum. Now it's Ethereum's

[16:40] turn, followed by the rest of the altcoins. But you need to understand that all this will last literally just a few months. That is, now, around winter, we expect all this movement. And then the bear

[16:55] phase begins. Everything will start to fall little by little. You need to be prepared for this, that is, not to catch it now, not to go into euphoria when we see this long-suffering, long-awaited final growth, but impartially, [music] without any

[17:08] greed, fix your positions, profits, and withdraw invested funds as quickly as possible , at a minimum. [music] And we will short the bear market and make money on the fall. For the next video, I'm preparing a short strategy that's

[17:23] understandable. In general, we perceive a bear market as new opportunities. We have the opportunity to earn money both on growth and on

[17:35] short strategies and trading bots, which for the most part don't care whether we have a bearish or a bullish trend. Bots prioritize volatility and impulse movements, and there will be plenty of them to attack. And the most important thing is to start preparing now to re-enter the

[17:51] market. That is, we are expecting a decline in the twenty-sixth year. The twenty-seventh establishment of some kind of bottom on the market, and then new, wonderful opportunities will open up to buy at the bottom of the

[18:06] market and calmly fly upwards in the next growth phase. Today we discussed for the coming years. As they say, forewarned is forearmed. to like, leave a comment, subscribe so you don’t

[18:20] get lost on the YouTube channel, and also subscribe to my Telegram channel. The link will be in the description below the video. That's all from me. All the best and successful me. All the best and successful trading.