AI Summary
This video explains sports betting arbitrage, a method that guarantees profit by exploiting odds differences between bookmakers. However, the creator strongly advises against it due to practical drawbacks, advocating instead for value betting as a superior long-term strategy.
Chapters
Arbitrage betting can guarantee a win, but it's not recommended due to several flaws.
Two bookmakers offer different odds for the same match. By betting on both outcomes, you secure a profit regardless of the result. Example: betting $100 on player 2 at odds 3.93 and $276.76 on player 1 at odds 1.42 yields a guaranteed $16.24 profit.
Bookmakers quickly detect arbitrage patterns and ban users after a few bets, preventing further betting.
Arbitrage opportunities are rare; finding more than 5-6 per month is lucky, often requiring paid software.
Profit percentages are small (e.g., 4% return on $376 bet). Limited liquidity restricts bet sizes.
Value betting on a single high-odds outcome yields much higher returns (e.g., 35% EV) compared to arbitrage's 4%, despite not guaranteeing each individual win.
The creator shows real earnings via screen recording to demonstrate legitimacy and encourage learning value betting.
While arbitrage betting guarantees a win, its practical limitations—account bans, rare opportunities, low profits, and superior alternatives—make it less attractive than value betting for long-term success.
Clickbait Check
85% Legit"Title promises a 'never lose' bet, which is technically true for arbitrage, but the video heavily warns against it, so it's slightly exaggerated."
Mentioned in this Video
Tutorial Checklist
Study Flashcards (5)
What is sports betting arbitrage?
easy
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What is sports betting arbitrage?
A strategy that guarantees profit by betting on all outcomes of an event across different bookmakers with varying odds.
00:34
Why do bookmakers ban arbitrage bettors?
medium
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Why do bookmakers ban arbitrage bettors?
Because they detect the pattern of guaranteed profits and restrict accounts to prevent losses.
03:34
What is the typical profit margin in arbitrage betting?
medium
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What is the typical profit margin in arbitrage betting?
Around 4% return on the total stake.
04:17
What is value betting?
hard
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What is value betting?
Betting on an outcome when the odds offered are higher than the true probability, yielding positive expected value over time.
06:00
What is the expected value (EV) of the example value bet?
hard
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What is the expected value (EV) of the example value bet?
35%.
06:27
💡 Key Takeaways
Arbitrage exists but not recommended
Directly addresses the claim of a 'never lose' bet, then immediately warns against it.
00:04Account bans are inevitable
Highlights a critical practical risk that undermines the arbitrage strategy.
03:34Low profit margins
Quantifies the small return (4%) compared to the effort and risk.
04:17Value betting yields 35% EV
Demonstrates a superior alternative with much higher expected return.
06:27Full Transcript
[00:04] truth is, as much as I like to debunk the scammers and snake oil salesmen of sports betting, in this case they're right. There is a type of bet where you'll always win and never lose. However, I'll tell you right now that
[00:20] all that glitters is not gold. First, I'm going to explain what arbitrage in sports betting is, and then I'll tell you why I do n't recommend it. After that, the decision is yours. By the way, this is a
[00:34] lesson from the free sports betting course: clearer, more sincere, and more honest. So I recommend watching it from the beginning. Arbitrage in sports betting is based on two bookmakers having different
[00:47] odds for the same match, and we're going to get a guaranteed profit by betting on both bookmakers. Let's see it with an example. As always, we'll have a match where there are only two options, to make the example
[01:02] simpler. Although in fact, in this specific case, it's very rare for it to happen in a football match, for example, where we have two teams that can win plus a draw. This case usually only happens when we have two
[01:16] options. For example, in a tennis team, as you can see, we have two players and two bookmakers. Bookmaker number one pays 1.3 for every Euro bet on player one and 3.93 on
[01:30] player two. Bookmaker number two pays 1.42 on player one and 2.9 on player two. In this case, what would we have to do? We would have to bet $100 on player two at bookmaker number one, that is, the one that
[01:47] pays the most, and then we would have to bet exactly 276.76 on player one at bookmaker number two, that is, the odds of
[01:59] 1.42. To do this calculation, I used a website that I will leave in the description. Although if you search "calculate arbitrage bets," you will find many calculators of this type. In this way, the total money we
[02:13] have bet is $100 + 26.76 + 376.76. And to calculate the winnings, it's very simple: notice that whether
[02:25] player one wins or player two wins, we will win. Why money? at one bookmaker and on two at another, and whoever wins, we're going to win
[02:38] going to win 393. Doing some very simple calculations, 393. Doing some very simple calculations, 93 profit minus
[02:50] of 16.24. And yes, yes, as it sounds. Player one wins or player two wins, we've won 393. We subtract what we bet, and it will always give us a profit. Sounds good, right? We always win, we never
[03:06] lose. However, this method has some flaws, and I'm not just telling you, I'm going to show you. I'm going to give you four reasons why I don't recommend using arbitrage in sports betting, and the fourth is the most
[03:21] important. And no, no, no, it's not because I want you to stay longer watching the video. Well, a little, yes, it is. It's simply because it's the longest to explain. The first reason is that as soon as you make three or four bets of this type, the
[03:34] bookmaker is going to notice and ban you. That is, you won't be able to bet anymore, you won't even be able to make the bets with EV that I show you in the... Free course, you can't even place losing bets, you're out.
[03:48] Second reason: it's very difficult to find these types of bets, really very difficult. Besides, we're going to have to pay for a platform, software, to tell us about them, but I'm telling you, if you find more than five or six a
[04:03] month, you'll be very lucky. And I think you've already learned that the more you bet, the more money you win. Since I've recommended the Bet Investors platform before because it's the best value for money, on this platform you will
[04:17] occasionally find some bets of this type, but I'm telling you, it's not the best option. Third reason: the profit percentage is very low. Look, we bet
[04:30] bet 376 and only won 16, which is a guaranteed profit, but the truth is, it doesn't make me rich. And if you say, "Well, I'm going to bet 2000 on each bet," that's not possible either, since
[04:44] these bets are going to be on less popular matches, people don't bet much, there's little liquidity, and therefore the bookmaker is n't going to let you bet much. And fourth, and most importantly, if you have Having seen the entire course,
[05:00] you know perfectly well what value betting is. You know perfectly well how to make money. It makes no sense to arbitrage sports betting because simply betting on one of the teams will earn you much
[05:15] more money. As always, I won't just tell you, I'll show you. We previously stated that with 376 bets we won about 166, which is around a 4% return. Well, if we make a single bet, that is,
[05:31] only betting on one player at a bookmaker, we will get a much higher return by having different odds. I think it's clear that the bookmaker has made a mistake, like the mistakes I've been
[05:45] pointing out for eight elections. Therefore, to bet with value, we have to bet on the player with the highest odds. In this case, we have to bet on player number two at bookmaker number
[06:00] one, who has odds of 3.93. If we take bookmaker number 2 as the correct probability, then it means that the then it means that the correct odds for player 2 are 2.9, not
[06:13] 3.93. For those who haven't seen the course, that's a value bet. Betting on a team when it pays us more, in this case 3.93, than what we in this case 3.93, than what we should be paid 2.9, and making these
[06:27] bets over and over again, we keep making money. If we calculate the EUV or the money. If we calculate the EUV or the profitability of this bet, it is 35 %. In other words, by doing arbitrage, A) they won't let us bet much
[06:41] money, B) they'll close our account, and C) we'll generate a much lower return: we'll generate a much lower return: 35% betting with euros, 4% doing arbitrage. And yes, obviously I know that betting with euros doesn't guarantee a win, but
[06:57] doing arbitrage guarantees a win. But as I've repeated a million times, by betting with EV, in the long run, we'll get that 35% return. Now, I've explained what arbitrage is and why
[07:12] I personally don't recommend it. The decision whether you want to do it or not is yours. And now, as always, I'm going to show you my earnings to prove that I'm not some charlatan or con artist out there, my earnings to prove that I'm not some charlatan or con artist out there,
[07:26] decided to record my computer screen directly with my camera so you can see that there's no fakery or anything like that, clicking on each and every payment so you can see there's no trickery involved.
[07:40] While you're watching this, remember to watch the entire playlist to learn 100% about sports betting. And if you have comments. I will use the last two videos of this course to
[07:55] answer all your questions.