What Bitcoin Is Doing Right Now Shouldn't Be Happening

[00:01] gotten worse, oil spiked, inflation fears came back, the Fed is stuck, the Iran situation got worse, not better, and yet Bitcoin is holding up far better that has my attention right now. Because when markets are truly weak, they

[00:17] usually break before the bad news arrives. But Bitcoin has now absorbed oil shocks, war headlines, inflation scares, higher yields, a stronger dollar, and one of the most hostile macro environments we've seen in years.

[00:29] And when I started digging through all the macro data, I realized there's a lot eye. So in this video, I'm going to break down what it looks like Bitcoin is my hidden state model, which has

[00:42] basically nailed 26 of its last 26 predictions, is predicting comes next. in terms of crypto alts, and overall what I've been doing to position myself for what I believe comes next. Okay, this is my hidden state engine model.

[00:57] in the past. The way it works is it tries to map the true underlying state of the market. So liquidity, demand, supply, plumbing, crash risk, etc. And it views price is basically just a noisy sensor or reading of that underlying

[01:10] state. And the formal term for this is a latent state model, and I've put a lot I've been working on for the past few years. Really trying to dial it in and build some sort of framework that was at least somewhat predictive of what the

[01:23] market is going to do next. Obviously, that's a really difficult thing to do, and obviously I've had quite a few failed past experiments in my many, many attempts to try to nail this down. But this iteration so far has proven to be

[01:36] the most capable of the bunch with, as I said earlier, 26 of the 26 predictions being pretty much basically spot-on. Not not all of them have been A grades. I graded A, B, C, D, F, and the majority of those grades sit in the A category. A

[01:52] couple of them have been B's, and I do this for transparency and also just model and make it better. And as you can see, it hasn't been going on for forever. I started this version of the model back in March and has two

[02:04] different time horizons. It's got 7-day and 30-day predictions. And the vast grades with a couple of them being B grades. I do have multiple different ways it can be graded. And this is with default grading. It can also be graded

[02:17] by only its first call so it it can't make any updates or only the exact date. could be both. It's it's got to be the first call and the exact date. Uh and then you got a couple D's in there, but all of them are A grades. So no matter

[02:31] you look at it, overall the model maintains its grade of an A. It's pretty dang good, at least so far, at predicting what happens next when it comes to Bitcoin over the 7-day and 30-day time horizons. And right now,

[02:45] it's pretty dang bearish. It's predicting, over the next 30 days, uh that Bitcoin goes down to $62,000, which is not the kind of thing that that that I personally like to see. I like to be bullish. I in general kind of

[02:59] lean a little bit more towards being optimistic and bullish about the future. It's been what's allowed me to make a lot of money in the markets because it tends to be that, you know, those people that are too bearish are too afraid to

[03:11] making a lot of money. Those people that are overly optimistic, even if they're ton of money because, you know, the bull market always eventually does come. So I like to be bullish. Uh but this model is

[03:24] saying bearish. And it's actually been bearish the last 3 weeks. And the reason it's bearish is because it viewed 72K as the trapdoor. And as soon as Bitcoin meaningfully broke through that, it feels it's inevitable that Bitcoin's

[03:38] next trajectory is to go and kind of retest that bottom at 62K. And that's because right now Bitcoin is trading as liquidity beta. And at different times Bitcoin trades as a different type of asset. This is what's so confusing about

[03:50] Bitcoin and some people Mark Cuban just came out and was like, "Oh, Bitcoin, anymore. It's not acting as a hedge, and so I sold it all because that's, you failed." And that's not quite true. Bitcoin actually just trades as a

[04:04] types of environments. Sometimes it's based on the ETF flows, sometimes it sometimes it does trade as a pure hedge, and sometimes it trades as a risk asset. It just depends on the setup in the season. And understanding the way that

[04:18] understand kind of where it's going to go next. And right now, the the short-term catalyst as to why Bitcoin directly is down, um it is a little bit fundamental, like, you know, core structure of the market. But short-term,

[04:31] heavily being influenced by the fact that Saylor ended up selling some of his Bitcoin holdings. Uh and that freaked a lot of people out. It feels like Saylor is losing um his conviction. And if he loses conviction, and Mark Cuban's

[04:43] people, like, what is the point of Bitcoin? It's kind of how people are Bitcoin's dead at this point." And then, on top of that, we also had the uh Iran to be, for like the hundredth time, a peace deal for Iran that was, you know,

[04:59] down, and then Iran's like, "It's not happening. We're not going to have a peace deal." You know, all sorts of shenanigans are are being played right two things, and because Bitcoin's trading its liquidity beta right now, uh

[05:12] if you take a look at the liquidation heat map for Bitcoin, you can see that liquidity sitting right above the current price for Bitcoin right now. So, there is maybe the possibility of, you know, maybe some sort of short-term

[05:26] liquidity before we head lower. That could be a possibility. We could also range. It's pretty hard for me to argue against the model because the model has been spot-on over the last couple months. And if it's saying 62K is where

[05:40] days, then that's probably the current trajectory that we're on. We are probably likely heading to 62K over the next 30 days on the current track. But, that doesn't mean things can't change, and that doesn't mean that something a

[05:54] catalyst can't spring forth and cause that path to change. And that's think things are just kind of like preordained or preset. When really the market is constantly changing and shifting and evolving based on different

[06:08] things that are impacting it. So, for example, if over the next 30 days we got okay. An actual peace deal with Iran, then that would flip things. It's very likely we would not head down to that 30-day

[06:22] FOMC meeting that's coming up in a couple of weeks, you know, Kevin Warsh is super dovish for whatever reason. He's like over-the-top dovish. That could completely change the setup and send us higher. If some of the inflation

[06:36] change the setup. Various midterm shenanigans, you know, uh to try to juice the midterms. Something like that could change it. So, there's always the potential for some sort of catalyst to come in and change

[06:49] the setup. It's just that if nothing comes in, given the current setup, very also on the inverse you could have something super negative come in. You could have something like a really, really bad inflation print or a really

[07:02] pretty huge escalation in the Iran conflict to matter at this point, but you know, some sort of crazy escalation. Um you know, maybe Iran, you know, goes for some sort of other oil uh stranglehold and and tries to, you know,

[07:16] the oil markets further. Maybe the FOMC meeting Kevin Warsh is just like crazy hawkish. He's like, you know, comes in and and does the exact opposite Something like that could also meaningfully alter the setup in a

[07:29] thing I highlighted at the start of this video and the thing I want to highlight video and the thing I want to highlight now is despite a pretty insane like Michael Saylor sailing selling, not sailing. Michael Saylor

[07:41] selling. And the Iran conflict, you know, the peace deal not going through on like the exact same day. Despite that setup and in general just it's been pretty bearish setup in terms of Bitcoin, in terms of like things that

[07:54] that need liquidity. I know the the stock market's been all-time highs but you know, primarily AI driven, you know, all of that mania. And honestly, that's kind of a net negative if you think about it because that AI mania narrative

[08:07] is sucking all the oxygen out of the room. So, it's been a pretty horrible setup in terms of Bitcoin. And despite that Bitcoin has been holding up really resilient right now. It's not like Bitcoin sitting fragile. It's sitting

[08:20] It's I used to use Rambo all the time in in sitting there, you know, that a lot's being thrown at it but it takes quite a bit for it to retreat. It's not going to retreat, you know, with one little bump

[08:33] going off. It's going to take, you know, some pretty heavy fire to send Rambo Bitcoin's trading right now. We're, you know, back in October, we we we didn't have Rambo. We had or you know, I don't know. Steve. We had Steve from

[08:48] show back from when you were kid. That's who we had Steve, okay? That was Bitcoin back in October. And you know, he just heard like you know, his neighbor "Oh my gosh." He's running out the door. He's jumping out the window. You know,

[09:02] he's hearing a seagull car make a noise. I don't know if it's car or whatever, you know, a seagull gull chirp. Whatever the sound is seagulls make is hearing that and he just he's retreating. He's hiding under bushes. Okay, this guy's

[09:14] he thinks it's a wolf. He's jumping in the river. Okay, it was just absolute disaster, okay? That was Bitcoin back then. Bitcoin was weak. It was scared. It was terrified. And Bitcoin's become Rambo, okay? Steve Steve grew up. He

[09:27] sitting right now. So, all this stuff being thrown at the market, Bitcoin's holding up. That is a bullish sign but that doesn't outweigh the current bearish setup. But but it does bode well for if we do get one of

[09:40] those more bearish catalyst coming through, it should have less of an that Bitcoin is currently sitting pretty strong. Now, obviously, as I just mentioned, AI stocks are crushing it right now. So much so that like I even

[09:54] bought into an AI stock cuz I was like, "Dude, I'm getting FOMO right now. I AI action." And it's up like you know, I'm not super heavy into AI stocks, but research, bought one, and you know, I'm I'm up nothing, like 500 bucks on it.

[10:09] But still, you know, it that was easy. It reminds me a lot of you know, back in It reminds me a lot of you know, back in 2020 or back in 2016 or 2017 or 2021 or periods 2023 and 2024 for Bitcoin. When you have

[10:23] this catalyst of a narrative behind this asset class, it just it's a lot easier currently are sitting with stocks, you know, we could maybe we're at a like a a or or whatever along the way. But it's my view and and deep belief that AI is

[10:39] working its way into a super bubble. Okay? This is isn't going to be like a right here, okay? There's going to be waves and waves of this AI bubble until it has a full-on risk-on environment for it to just explode to absurd levels. You

[10:53] might think it's absurd today. It'll get far more absurd than it is today because we haven't had that risk-on environment like I've highlighted over multiple videos. When that happens, it'll get crazy. Um but again, there could be

[11:05] And I and I've been trying to highlight that crypto is going to morph over this time period, okay? Crypto is going to be a lot more tied into AI as like a sort of a survival mechanism, but just kind of a natural pushing of the market.

[11:20] right? A lot of these software companies are becoming AI companies. They weren't AI companies 5 years ago. Today, they're they're AI companies, okay? Same thing's going to happen in crypto. A lot of these crypto tokens projects or

[11:32] they weren't AI projects, they're going to become AI projects. So, the focus is going to be AI. The focus is going to be anything AI, anything exciting. The reason this bubble is going to keep going is because AI is not a fluke,

[11:45] okay? It's not like a made-up thing. Uh maybe if you're just using chat to like think it's made up. But if you're a heavy user of AI, if you're if you're like deep in the weeds, you're coding, you're building things, you're realizing

[11:58] how fast it's getting better, how much better it's getting, how capable it is. And we're only a couple upgrades, we're only a couple upgrade cycles from this becoming truly something that is game-changing, something that that

[12:10] things. And this is going to continue to accelerate. And I think most people haven't really caught on to how impactful AI is going to be. The whole point is that should also be an the investment focus for most investors when

[12:24] it comes to crypto is AI. And not really focusing on a lot of these other things because they're you know, they some of them will go up in a risk-on environment, but they're not going to go up as fast as the AI tokens that really

[12:37] 2026, I still stand by what I've been bottom's going to be in October like all the four-year cycle bears think. I think the bottom is likely already in. I could end up being wrong about that if we got

[12:50] whatever, but I think the bears are going to be disappointed come October. going to be disappointed in 2026. Originally, I was like talking about 2026 was going to be great. Um and that to be fair, that was the setup. Oil was

[13:04] get all these rate cuts, it was looking awesome. Trump hit Iran, oil was the exact opposite. No rate cuts, completely different setup and I think it's just going to be like a blah, meh. That wasn't even a word. It's

[13:19] kind of like a mid-year, okay? Nothing really crazy I expect to happen in 2026. Maybe post-October, you you have a bullish catalyst and then all the people to buy back in. That's like their time. They have no choice. They got to, you

[13:33] know, the time's up. Buy back in. That's That's what the rule says. So, you'll end up having a fresh kind of catalyst of those people buying back in around that time. But, in general, just kind of think it's going to be a mid

[13:45] exceptions though that could still do well. I think that could be things in AI. Right now, you have Near and VVV outperforming. Those are AI-oriented tokens. VVV kind of crosses off two different narratives with privacy as

[13:59] well. And I think you'll have other legitimate AI tokens that can kind of separate or break loose from the rest of the market. And then, obviously, there doing really well. But, I would highlight that Hype is doing things

[14:12] different things like that which has gotten the attention of Wall Street and is actually pretty cool." But, also, Hype is the most profitable per employee company on Earth. That's not just in crypto, but literally on planet Earth.

[14:27] Hype Hyperliquid is the most profitable per employee company. And so, its outperformance makes sense, okay? crypto market or alts, you know, like people are saying we're about to head

[14:41] because these alts are outperforming, you know, Bitcoin. But, I don't think more a story of, you know, Hyperliquid makes sense. And then, you know, AI tokens are are going to make sense that are legitimate. And these are more

[14:55] same kind of things that drove Bitcoin's price appreciation in 2023 and 2024. It Wall Street and all that kind of stuff. So, despite a not necessarily good macro backdrop, you know, Bitcoin did well. That narrative is kind of faded now.

[15:10] alive and kicking and so, you're now seeing AI tokens that are doing well. Wider crypto still needs risk-on macro conditions and those are just not coming in 2020 If they draw down the TGA and you know,

[15:25] have like a little pocket or something in 2026 that could could end up forming. it's just going too slow. There's too many things like again, oil prices, that

[15:37] was kind of the unlock, inflation, oil prices, rate cuts. That was the unlock doors, you know, kind of blew it up when it when >> when he went to Iran. Now, a lot of people have been asking what I'm still

[15:49] holding. I'm going to comment on a couple ones specifically that a lot of people are asking me if I'm still holding AVO. I'm still holding AVO. I'm asking me if I'm still holding INFRA, especially cuz the price absolutely

[16:02] haven't sold my INFRA. I don't plan on selling it. AVO and INFRA, those are really, really tiny like super, super tiny cap plays. I view them as more like VC investments, okay? Asymmetric bets is what I call them in

[16:16] the past. And I've made the mistake in the past that I went way too heavy in asymmetric bets or VC investments. They're VC type plays. These are not like buying hype. These are not like buying ETH or SOL or Chainlink or you

[16:29] know, something like that. Those are investments, okay? Those are like you investing in a normal, semi-normal thing in the market. Completely different rules. When you buy tiny, tiny cap things, they're absurdly

[16:42] volatile. They're absurdly fragile and they could absolutely fall apart and get wrecked. You're just more likely to get a you know, minus 90% with something a small cap investment than you are something like, you know, mid cap or a

[16:56] large cap like hype, etc. But the upside is if those things end up doing well, that's when you get the 100x, 1000x, 10,000x, those impossible gains come I've always said like if you have 20 of them and 19 of them go to zero and one

[17:11] money with those things. But they're extremely risky. They're like literally maximum risk. So in my kind of like VC bucket, I got, you know, Avvo, Infra. Those are still sitting in my bucket,

[17:23] as long as they keep building and doing stuff. They're both in the AI narrative, willing to hold over the long term. And then right now in the kind of normal plays bucket in terms of AI, I'm really

[17:35] focusing heavily on an oldie but a goodie, Akash. You know, I've been holding Akash for years now, years. I've I've rode it up 20x, I rode it back down have took some profits on that. That was a huge mistake. But I've I've been

[17:50] earning over that entire time period at But but in general, my conviction in Akash has actually grown over the last other tokens taking off. I really think Akash is underestimated for what it is.

[18:05] GPU play. They don't really understand the idea of a decentralized permissionless network for compute and how that ties into AI, but I think just have captured people's imaginations, I think something like AKT can also do

[18:19] multiple hundreds in in market cap. And I'm actually focusing a lot of time outside of investing in just alts into just mastering and using AI as much as possible. I've been building models with AI since 2022,

[18:34] and I've been building trading strategies with AI since late last year. forward testing, so none of them are live yet, but they do all make a ridiculous amount in back testing and over forward testing. This one's been

[18:47] going for 19 days, it's made about $4,000 on paper. This was my second strategy I launched. This one's -7,000 dollars on paper. This one's been going dollars on paper. This one's been going for about 12 days. This one was an

[19:00] upgrade to this one, and it's been going for 11 days, up 500 bucks. This one's been going for about 5 days, it's down $5,000. I'm working on an upgrade to strategy. These are all These are all the same strategy, but different

[19:13] This is a different strategy. This is my latest version of my Aeroborus strategy, and it's up $4,000. It's only been going for 4 days. But anyway, none of that live money. But it's been another kind of avenue I've been exploring and kind

[19:28] of obsessed with is I believe that in the future AI agents and people like you'll never trade on your own. You'll always have like an AI agent assisting you. Not in any weird sci-fi way. You'll just use AI agents to invest. It's like

[19:43] relationship. And so I'm trying to front run that and explore that as much as I I I like to just be I like to try new things. And you know, that typically being curious and trying new things. I'm always curious to see how these things

[19:58] um I you know, we'll we'll see how this works out when I actually put money on it. And typically I like to test these things for a a couple weeks before I But yeah, that's it. If you have any questions, let me know in the comment

[20:11] seeing my entire portfolio or you want to see every time I buy and sell various tokens as well as different weekly video market updates, uh currently the members, but you can sign up for the waitlist in the description of this

[20:23] telling you to do anything with your money. I'm obviously not your financial own research. If this video was helpful, make sure you hit the like button. And this, make sure you hit that subscribe button and the little bell next to it to

[20:35] videos. Thanks for watching, and I'll see you next week.