Full Transcript
[00:02] introduced to the wonders of Arbitrage bedding and I made my first $8,000 in profit and since then I've tried tested and developed my own optimal betting strategy which I've now used to make over $440,000 in profit and Counting
[00:17] this is a strategy that I call positive EV or plus EV betting and it's a much better version of Arbitrage it's simpler to calculate mathematically it's less time consuming and in the long term you can expect to make a lot more money make
[00:31] where I'll be going through a real life example of an actual plus EV and Arbitrage bet that I can place on bookies as many people have been asking bookies as many people have been asking for this so what is plus EV betting EV
[00:45] stands for expected value and is a term commonly used in the finance industry by investment analysts quantitative Traders and all the Wolves of Wall Street it comes from probability Theory and in short represents how much you can expect
[00:58] to make while disregarding any risk in sports betting this is easy to calculate it's the sum of all the products of the payoff multiplied by the probability of that event for example in a soccer game between Norwich and man united the
[01:12] bookie is offering 1.42 on man united to win this means the payoffs are you make 42 cents profit if Man United win and lose $1 if man united loses or the game
[01:24] ends in a draw the EV or expected value is therefore the probability Man United win multiplied by 42 plus the probability of the game drawing or losing for Man United multiplied by -1 for more
[01:38] information on how you can get these probabilities you can check out my link above and in that video I talked about how you can get the fair odds and fair probabilities of events happening by looking at a betting exchange or a
[01:51] very sharp bookmaker if you do the EV calculations for most of the bets that bookies are offering you you will most likely find that it is negative and this negative number represents how much The Bookies are ripping you off by and how
[02:05] much you can expect to lose in the long term however occasionally there are plus EV opportunities positive EV betting relies on exploiting bookmakers mispriced odds which they will make mistakes occasionally and also some of
[02:18] their promotional offers which can turn your expected value to become positive this can come in the form of either higher boosted odds or partial refunds on a bet that you don't win in the hope of luring a new customer into becoming
[02:32] one of their great customers which is the degenerate gamblers being a plus EV better means taking only the bets that are positive EV from your mathematical calculations and ignoring all other bets so let's take a look at a hypothetic
[02:46] example to have a better understanding of positive EV betting and also compare it to Arbitrage and from there you can see that Arbitrage betting is truly inferior to positive EV betting so in our coin TOS example we have a fair coin
[02:59] coin which means it has a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails in this case let's assume there's a mispricing in the odds there's odds of four for heads and odds of 1.8 for Tails we have $3 to bet across either
[03:16] heads or tails let's see how our Arbitrage better will go through about this what they will do is first for the first bet bet $1 on heads at four odds the second bet is $2 on tails at the 1.8
[03:32] odds and therefore if it's heads they win $3 on their first bet and lose $2 on their second bet which means they make $1 in overall profit similarly if it's taals they lose their Dollar on the first bet and win $160 on their second
[03:47] bet giving them an overall profit of 60 what about for the plus EV better they see the odds of four is positive EV or positive expected value whereas the odds positive expected value whereas the odds of 1.8 for tails is negative EV as the
[04:01] odds are not the fair odds or higher of two we again have $3 to bet let's see what the plus EV better would do in this case what they would do is BET all their case what they would do is BET all their money the $3 all on heads at four odds
[04:14] since that is the positive EV bet and completely ignore the other bet so in the outcome that it is heads they win $9 on their first bet and their only bet so they get $9 in overall profit if it was taals then they would be unlucky and
[04:28] taals then they would be unlucky and lose $3 on on their bet and incur a $3 overall loss but let's take a look at what the expected value is the EV is calculated by the probability multiplied by the payoffs which is 50% chance of
[04:42] landing on heads multiplied by $9 plus 50% chance of land on taals multiplied by -3 this gives us $450 -150 which means our expected value is $3 for this bet now what about the Arbitrage better this
[04:57] was their bet $1 on headset four $2 on taals at 1.8 which means they get $1 overall profit if it is heads and 60 cents overall profit if it is Tails this means that EV or expected value is 50% * 1 + 50% * 0.6 which are both positive
[05:15] numbers but in the end the EV is only 80 cents significantly less than if it was for the plus EV better so what are the advantes and disadvantages we can see from this example well for Arbitrage the profit is risk-free no matter what
[05:30] outcome it resulted in he would make a profit but the profit is smaller in the long term and for plus EV you do have that risk of losing $3 in that bet but in the long term your expected profit is going to be much higher if you guys
[05:44] calculations the first time I would highly recommend you check out again the previous Sports wedding video where I explain how to do mathematical probability payoff calculations and then rewatch this coint TOS example as things
[05:57] will only get more and more complex from here so so hopefully from that example Arbitrage betting and then shifted towards a positive EV betting style I'll go over now Arbitrage betting is essentially placing two bets one which
[06:12] is the positive EV bet which is the same one that is being placed by the positive EV better and the second bet is a hedge bet which is used only to reduce the risk of the first bet and often times the second bet or the Hedge bet is
[06:26] negative EV overall the sum of the EV or expected value is still positive which opportunity out of it and guarantee a profit but it's likely going to be significantly less than if you just took the positive EV bet and this will mean
[06:41] we are expecting to make less money in the long run even though we are still making money just not as much as positive EV also since we are now placing two bets instead of the one which the positive EV bet is only
[06:53] required to place this kind of tends to over complicate things and now you have to work out calculations of how much to bet which places to bet on for two bets instead of one and doubling the time and doubling the complexity J is somewhat of
[07:07] an advantage that Arbitrage has over positive EV is by the term itself Arbitrage is a risk-free way of making money which is probably what is appealing to most people no matter the outcome like in the coint TOs example
[07:21] you can see you can make money and there is a lot of more risk when it comes to positive EV betting in the short term only for the positive EV better there's a 50% chance they'll lose money in the coint TOs example but I would argue that
[07:34] this risk reduction is pretty insignificant especially when it comes to playing the long game and betting frequently diversification and the law of large numbers state that as the number of bets I place approaches a
[07:47] large number the presence of luck completely Fades and my profit or loss will eventually converge to the point that is represented purely by the sum of the expected value or EV of all the all the bets I've placed for the coin toss
[08:01] the bets I've placed for the coin toss example yes if I place the bets once and only flip the coin once then yes I do have a 50% chance which is quite a large chance of losing money but imagine I made the coin toss and did the same bets
[08:14] on a thousand different coin tops events statistically and you don't need to worry about how I did this exactly but using binomial probability you can see that 99.9% of the time there's going to be at least 450 heads or 450 times that
[08:29] the fa that the outcome is in my favor out of 1,000 so 45% of the time so in this case where there are at least 450 heads which there's a 99.9% chance of statistically our Arbitrage better won't actually make that much profit there
[08:45] would can expect to make 450 * 1 + 550 * profit of $780 for a plus EV better when they at least 450 heads they can actually make a substantial amount of profit they can
[09:01] substantial amount of profit they can expect to make $9 * by 450 + $550 * the not heads which means they have an overall profit of $2,400 significantly greater than that of our Arbitrage better and this is the
[09:17] kind of the worst case scenario where there's only 450 heads if there were 500 heads or more the profit would be even more bit significant this shows that even with terrible luck it no longer plays a huge difference when you can
[09:30] exploit the law of large numbers to phase out oneoff variances now as promised I'll go on to show a bet that can actually be placed so you guys can realize that this is definitely not a scam this wouldn't be possible without a
[09:43] fast-paced betting odds comparison site like odds Jam which is also today's video sponsor so here you can see that I am on the odds jams platform which is a site that collects all the most recent odds data from all the major bookies and
[09:56] betting exchanges and then Compares them all to each other and find all the Arbitrage and positive EV opportunities we can see this in the betting tools there's both Arbitrage and plus CV as an example we can see this
[10:10] Arbitrage calculator tells us how much to bet on each event to guarantee a profit so here we can see for our market player made threes for Marcus Morris if we bet over 2.5 on Caesar and we bet under 2.5 on fanel with the
[10:24] corresponding amounts of 500 and 659 we can get a profit guaranteed of $40 58 on the other hand for our plus EV bets oddam will just recommend an amount to wager which is how much to bet based on our Kelly Criterion and our expected
[10:39] value of how much we'll make is the amount to wager multiplied by the percentage of the EV we can change our Kelly bank roll in our settings and we can also actually set email notifications to be reminded instantly
[10:51] when there's a large positive EV bet to place for example here when I get 21% for this Market odds Jam has the latest odds St of many bookmakers across the world but for now the opportunities are predominantly in the United States so if
[11:07] you're easily going to find plenty of opportunities and you will make back the subscription cost and more very quickly odd Jam also has a neat bet tracking feature that measures your performance
[11:20] this helps you keep track of how you are doing as an added bonus I've managed to get you guys 25% off your first month subscription to get this you must one use use the link below and two enter the code Shane 25 to get 25% off your first
[11:34] make sure to give it a big like down below it really helps out the channel and if you learned something today then make sure to subscribe to not miss out on the upcoming educational Sports breing content as always take care and
[11:47] breing content as always take care and I'll see you guys in the next video