Winning Roulette Strategy: More Mistakes to Avoid - Part 4

[00:05] my last video explains some of the typical mistakes players make most players found it helpful but some found it offensive not because of the hot chicks in bikinis it was because they didn't agree with me and thought I had

[00:17] not understanding why their systems lose I expected that I could say popular things and it would make nice bedtime stories but it wouldn't be the truth should go back and see them first in this video I'll continue explaining the

[00:36] almost every player makes them and of course I'll include more videos of gorgeous chicks how casinos see you depends on your system if you're an

[00:48] numbers the casino sees you as a threat because you have a real advantage but if you're a typical player this is how casino see you you're just another

[01:03] clueless one in the crowd casinos don't care who wins or loses for the day because they know they have a long-term advantage they think in terms of tens of game results across all different games not just for all X so casinos see the

[01:18] larger picture but players see it very differently most casinos allow you to take notes while playing there are some types of Nosek casinos really don't like you taking I'll explain those another time but the typical notes players take

[01:31] are pointless here are some examples of typical notes firstly the notes usually track patterns that don't really exist so the data is so the casinos know that most notes players take our a joke to them it's

[01:46] more about keeping your happy and blissfully unaware they know if you win you'll come back another day and probably lose now I'll show you the kind of information casinos know here's a test of a typical roulette system using

[02:02] the software called roulette extreme initially the system works it looks like the system is working it even wins over more spins and most people play in their it's because it uses bedding progression so it increases the size of bets after

[02:17] losses in attempt to recover losses but like I said in a previous video you win for a while then lose big so betting progressions only delay the

[02:30] inevitable like most systems this one uses the library collections to determine when and where to bet 1 billion spins were tested and we can see what happened pay attention to the statistics especially the net percentage

[02:45] if the system is completely ineffective we expect it to be around negative 2.7 percent that's because it's the house edge for European roulette in tests like this I call the net percentage the resulting edge remember this term

[02:58] because I'll refer to it throughout the video the resulting edge isn't exactly the system's edge it's just the end result of the test so with random bets or if the system is completely ineffective we expect the resulting edge

[03:11] to be about negative 2 point 7 percent but even after 1 million spins will rarely get exactly 27 it might be two point eight two point four or whatever but it's still around 2.7 this slight variation from the expected result is

[03:25] called variance in this case it was negative two point eight five so what does this mean it means this system's best selection method was completely ineffective it was no better than random bits it changed nothing but if it

[03:37] changed nothing then why did the bankroll increase for so long it's because betting progression was used again Benni progression is like a loan that must be repaid with interest so progression keeps you winning for a

[03:49] while you can do the same with any type of bet this includes random bets on red black odds even Street square splits single numbers or whatever the only difference is each type of bet has different odds but they all still have

[04:02] unfair payouts now let's run a test to see how the martingale system goes this is a basic system where you just double bets after reach the table betting limit or run out of money but let's see what happens with

[04:17] unlimited money and no betting limits so we won and the chart looks great but here's my point when you see bankroll betting it has nothing to do with how accurately your system predicts wedding

[04:35] numbers it has nothing to do with how sophisticated your system is it's just plain betting progression it's the same for almost every system later in this video I'll explain how you can confirm this for sure but first I'll recap what

[04:48] I'm saying forget testing on scrap paper forget short term results the casino doesn't care about short term because they know it's irrelevant their whole business depends on accurate statistics and

[05:00] they've done their homework so you need proper long term testing to see what your system is really made of for this you need the right tools the software major downsides firstly it can only test mechanical approaches that lose for

[05:17] example after 10 Reds in a row bet black and secondly programming it to tests new programming language I personally don't use or a Linux train for testing

[05:29] my systems I use custom-made software anyway before we continue the key point around negative 2.7 percent on the European wheel now let's run some

[05:42] long-term tests of different systems you

[06:39] so we can see even with different systems the resulting edge is still around the house edge which is negative two point seven percent the players are attracts real patents the proper testing proves the patterns only existed in

[06:54] their imagination importantly path swings do hold clues to future spins but only if you're looking at the right thing the problem is most systems don't look at the right thing this is not my opinion math is not an opinion numbers

[07:07] are not an opinion so please don't send me hate mail or call me up with a B mother I'm sensitive to that kind of thing one of the most boneheaded statements players make is I'll never play tens of

[07:22] thousands of spins so we don't need to test that many spins I just need a system that wins in the short term remember how casinos see typical players and if you want assists in the wins only in the short term just use random bits

[07:34] with progression then you'll win most of the time but when you lose you'll lose big also keep in mind a stop loss won't protect you if you stop betting you it be you don't know every spin is independent with the payouts always

[07:51] being unfair even if you do win anyway back to my original point while long-term tests are needed if you repeat tests of the same system but with this is especially if you don't test enough spins remember anything can

[08:06] happen in the short term here's the bankroll child of a test in a previous video I've broken it into sections of 10,000 spins the green lines are winning sections and red lines are losing sections in one in some sections and

[08:20] lost in others let's put it into perspective so we had ten different players who each played a different section of 10,000 spins some would win but most would lose 10,000 spins is more than most people play in their lifetime

[08:33] but to the casino because they understand reality is still short-term they only care that most players lost my point is forget about short-term again play millions of spins that's not quite true it's not about how many spins

[08:50] you'll actually play it's only about odds versus payout and specifically that payouts are unfair even when you do win and the house edge affects each and every spin so you're affected whether you play one spin or 10,000 spins let's

[09:04] consider another perspective five players one and five players lost but 50% chance of winning it's just like betting eighteen numbers on one spin it

[09:17] also gives you about a 50% chance of winning so how's this different well if you bet eighteen numbers on one spin it only takes a few seconds but if you play 10,000 spins it takes about a year so the difference is just time

[09:36] players on forums have an unhealthy obsession with long upward trend lines they would mean something if flat betting was used these are best without any progression but they almost always involve progressions the shape of trend

[09:48] lines vary between different systems one system might have a smooth uptrend and some sharp periods of loss like this this means the system uses a conservative betting progression for example the progression might only aim

[10:03] to win back losses so the bank-robbery turns to where it was before a losing streak a more aggressive progression might aim to win back more than previous losses with more aggressive progression the back row looks more erratic so you

[10:15] will have huge up-and-down swings instead of a smoother line. Hang on.

[10:27] I love that chick.

[10:49] Also your systems bet selection logic contributes to how the trendline looks for example your system may require you to bet only after certain triggers like maybe betting a number when it repeats consecutively like 32 and 32 in this

[11:05] case you'll bet only once every 40 or so spins you'll skip many spins on a background chart this looks like your system survived more spins on the other hand if your system bet on every spin then generally your system won't survive

[11:19] as many spins you might incorrectly think your system is worse but that's not the case keep in mind a good system is not about surviving spins a good system is about increasing the accuracy of predictions so your bet selections

[11:33] win more frequently than random bets if you only want to survive spins just better percentage of your remaining bankroll then as you lose you'll bet less and lose less another option if you only want to survive spins is just use

[11:48] some kind of betting trigger for example you bet only after seeing specific numbers but in reality he won't make any difference to your profit you'll just be delaying the inevitable this is because when you do bet the odds of winning and

[12:02] the payouts haven't changed systems can use countless combinations of bet selection algorithms and progressions these are what you probably think define your system and make it different to other systems these factors determine

[12:15] how your bankroll chart will look like a smooth line a more erratic line with dramatic ups and downs or whatever generally the simple in your system is system is the more already the trend line is my point is different systems

[12:32] lines so people think one system is different to another but in reality almost all systems are a repackaged mess of random bets you might think your

[12:44] progression is a good money management strategy but in the end almost every system is nothing more than random bits with random bet size you might think it's not random because your system follows logic but again your win rate is

[12:59] still random so your system changed now you can easily prove this by testing about 1 million spins then checking the resulting edge I know this will upset some people but when you understand how to properly test and what the results

[13:12] mean the truth is clear I'll give another example if you made random bets with random bet size without any other rules then your trend line would look very erratic you'll have parts where it's smooth putts with a strong up or

[13:25] down trend and parts where it's all over the place but in the end your resulting betting strategy and time to develop the system can it for nothing again it's not

[13:38] my opinion do you proper testing for yourself now let's put it into context like I explained in previous videos every single spin is an independent event each and every spin has its own odds of winning white with a single

[13:52] number the odds on a European wheel are one in 37 so no matter what patterns you per 37 spins so your system changed nothing and any wins or losses in the

[14:05] past days weeks months or even years with just luck it doesn't mean your system works I know money is money it's good if you've won but as you've seen in spins to know for sure if your system is any better than random bets and again

[14:22] winning roulette is not about surviving spins it's not about winning most of the loss refer back to my earlier videos if you're only trying to win in your

[14:35] lifetime or career as a gambler then forget about a lover of bed selection logic just focus on conservative betting progression in this case what you bet is an important because again your win rate is still the same as random you're

[14:48] betting progression should I only aim to recover losses so your bankroll returns to a new all-time high at least that's what I'd suggest if you're a gambler but different I'd suggest focus on bet selection

[15:03] methods that actually change things specifically they should increase the accuracy of your predictions so you win more frequently than random bets I it's not that the logic is complicated it's because it's hard to get your head

[15:18] around concepts that conflict with your brain we naturally try to make sense of random information we think we see patterns that don't really exist more specifically we see patterns that make sense to us but have absolutely no

[15:30] effect on future spins so when we place bets on incorrect perception we lose because the bets still have random accuracy and the payouts are still unfair again it's not my opinion it's what simple testing proofs in the next

[15:44] video I'll explain more typical mistakes players make but I'll get right down to the problems of specific strategies and misunderstandings they're like cancers on gambling forums for example principles like the law of 1/3 there are

[15:57] many others too if everyone did the testing I've explained here and check the resulting edge that know if a system was any better than random bets and do the testing with flat bets not progression that's because of a system

[16:09] doesn't win with flat beds it won't win with progression remember progression is just different sized bets on different spins the amount you bet doesn't change the odds or the fact that the pants are unfair even when you do win so there's

[16:22] just one more video explaining the basics which most players are still stuck on after that video I'll start explaining some of the strategies that really work I mean the systems that can earn you a living playing roulette

[16:34] remember the subscribe to the channel and click the bell icon so you know to file up new videos