You Will Never Win the Lottery Jackpot. Here's Why.

[00:01] for some reason everyone around started talking about lotteries. Russians began buying lottery tickets more often. lotteries. Russians began buying lottery tickets more often. tickets for themselves and as gifts for loved ones. Every day there are fewer and fewer tickets left.

[00:15] Every day there are fewer and fewer tickets left. [music]

[00:28] Previously, M&M's or Cola commercials were shown on TV. They even became symbols of the New Year. But now another company really wants to become a New Year's company. In December, their advertising appears everywhere, and not

[00:42] only on TV. You've probably seen them in magazines, on billboards, or on the Internet, and this is not strange. Initially, the lottery was a family and even festive one. Fun. The appeared on TV only 50 years ago. Since 1994,

[00:58] the most famous lottery for us, Russian Lotto, has been on air every week. This scene has been around for more than 20 years, but Russian Lotto has never experienced such popularity as it is now, and all because in the last few years, on New Year's, they have been

[01:10] giving away a huge jackpot. Therefore, in winter, you can see an advertisement with a very clear The message "Give me a chance to win a billion billion rubles" may seem strange or straightforward, but it actually

[01:24] works. For example, the last New Year's lottery draw sold 39 million tickets, and that's not a record. A couple of years ago, almost 54 million years ago, I feel your condemnation even through the screen. Why do all these people play the

[01:38] lottery? Don't they understand that it's a scam? And can we really say about a billion and they will all run for tickets? I also thought about this, and it turned out that everything is also thought about this, and it turned out that everything is much more complicated.

[01:52] need to go back a little to January 2020. The New Year's lottery, due to the huge sums, has been very popular for the past few years, but the draw in 2020 brought them to an absolutely cosmic level. Then one of

[02:06] the players became a billionaire for the first time in the history of the lottery. knew the name of the winner and were looking for him for two weeks. The excitement about this was

[02:20] so great that people began to google the results of the draws a hundred times more often. Two weeks later, it turned out that the winner, Nadezhda Bartysh, did not even watch the draw. Her daughter saw the news and decided to check the ticket.

[02:32] The billionaire came for the money and gave the only interview of her life. She was very calm. Perhaps she simply did not understand how lucky she was. Tens of thousands of people saw her story and also wanted to win a billion. But if

[02:45] they had calculated their chances of winning, they simply would not have stood in these lines. Therefore, I decided to calculate these chances for them and first studied the rules of the game. People stood in long lines for tickets that have two fields in them with

[02:59] tickets that have two fields in them with numbers from 1 to 90. To win the jackpot, the first 15 numbers that the presenter calls must be on your ticket, but not in any of the fields, namely, in the upper or lower field. It seemed to me that the rule is so

[03:12] simple that I can calculate this probability in 15 minutes.

[03:35] I was given 45 points on the Unified State Exam in mathematics, so I wrote to someone who will calculate everything. It's much faster than me. My name is Boris Rushin, I am an online mathematics teacher. The first ball can be chosen from 90 after that. No matter how you

[03:51] choose the first ball, we have 89 options for what can end up in second place. Then choose. Three balls, that's how many ways, 15 balls can be chosen, 76 different remaining options, a total of different sequences that the

[04:07] same set gives, that's how many pieces it turns out to be 45, 46, 45 that's how many pieces it turns out to be 45, 46, 45 trillion, a scary number.

[04:25] 15 balls. And how many of them are suitable for us? Our ticket has two sets of 15 balls, which means either this set must match this one, or this one, that is, we only have two suitable sets. So, the probability that our ticket will win

[04:43] the probability that our ticket will win is one divided by 2.3 by 10. 16. Okay, our chances of winning are 1 in 23 quadrillion, but it doesn't get any easier because no one knows what a quadrillion is. But Boris wasn't joking. A

[04:55] quadrillion is a really huge number. For example, this is what the Earth looks like from a quadrillion of meters. A wonderful view, but I'm not sure. Where is the Earth? Probably not sure. Where is the Earth? Probably somewhere here, well, or here. And there are also

[05:07] 20 quadrillion ants on Earth. Yes, there are people who have calculated this. An aquadrile of words is about 11 billion books, that is, everything. The circulation of all books ever published in the world in any language, and now imagine I

[05:20] organized a lottery with the same chances of winning. To participate, you need to choose any book in the world in any language, choose a word from there and bet [music] then we will randomly choose this word. If

[05:34] you guessed the jackpot, yours, even if the whole world took part in such a lottery. And that's 8 billion people. I don't think that any of them would guess the word correctly with such chances of winning. Barto should have become the luckiest

[05:46] person in the world and gotten into the Guinness Book of Records. For example, the chance of winning the jackpot in the European lottery Euroville is one in 140 million. And in the American Powerball, one in three. 100 million in Russian Lotto, this chance is one

[05:58] million in Russian Lotto, this chance is one in 23 quadrillion, which is 150 million times less. And after these complex calculations, I want to find the answer to one very simple want to find the answer to one very simple question.

[06:13] so insignificant. I dug around on the lottery website and found a text where they explain everything. It's simple terms. In short, before, to win, the first 15 numbers that the

[06:27] presenters called had to be on your ticket, and it didn't matter if it was in the upper or lower field. Now, these numbers must be in one of the fields, either the upper or lower. It sounds like a small change. But in fact, it changed all the chances of

[06:39] winning, but this time I won't even try to calculate it. It's exactly the same problem. We have 30 numbers, and any 15 of them will do. 15 of them are any 15 of them will do. 15 of them are calculated exactly the same way. It turns out that

[06:57] the probability of each specific set was the same, but before, was the same, but before, 155 million sets would do for us. But this turns out to be

[07:09] 155 million sets would do for us. But this turns out to be approximately one divided by 300 million, that is, the probability was also wildly small. One in 300 million that your ticket will win, but one in 300 million is still 80 million times better

[07:25] than what it is now. It turns out that before, the chance of winning was the same as in American or European lotteries. And now it's generally impossible to win, but if it's impossible to win, like Bartosz did. It turns out that her chances

[07:39] weren't so low on the fifteenth move of the draw where she won, the number 4 came up, but the draw wasn't stopped. Nadezhda won only on the thirtieth move, by which time her chances had

[07:52] dropped from quadrillions to a very realistic one in 147 million. She was she didn't have to choose one word from all the books in the world either. Let's test our luck in the same lottery. I'll guess the number 7 and damn, not even close.

[08:08] Many thought that the draw was not in 15 but in 30 moves, this is a violation. But in fact, these are the that in Russian Latvia there are two types of draws: forced and normal. In normal draws, one of the ticket fields must close within 15 moves. If this doesn't

[08:23] game is forced until someone closes this field, and it doesn't matter how many moves it takes, 15 or 40. Draws in which there is a winner are always held infrequently, usually around New Year's, and this is how they do it. Not because

[08:37] start buying tickets more actively when they see news about a new billionaire after the increased greatly. But the next draws were not forced and no one won. Player activity began to gradually decline in January. The

[08:52] billion rubles draw, this time at the request of the players, they divided it between dozens of people, they gave it to one, the draw continued not 15 but 30 moves and sales increased again. This happens. From year to year, people simply do not

[09:06] understand the difference between draws where the chances of winning are minimal and where it is completely impossible to win. But if it is impossible to win, then why do people continue to play or why don’t they play only on New Year’s? After all, there is at least

[09:18] some chance of winning. Many choose a simple answer to this question: the lottery is a tax on stupidity, therefore, those who play are just fools. I do

[09:32] marketers use the qualities that each of us has. I read their research and it seems to me that they have three answers to the question of why people play the lottery [music].

[09:46] We talked in great detail about the chances of winning, calculated huge numbers, turned to mathematicians, so here's the bad news, no one cares, it was useless, psychologists have found that the probability of winning is so insignificant that it

[09:59] we don't know what a quadrillion is, the difference between a billion, a million, and a trillion, we don't understand either, and not because we're stupid, our brains are designed that way in everyday life, we don't encounter such huge numbers,

[10:13] so we simply can't visualize them or compare them to anything to understand, so we play intuitively or simply turn off our minds, it doesn't matter that mathematicians have an answer to the question of whether we will become the next billionaire, why do they need them

[10:26] if these numbers are simply impossible to understand, so players choose the easy way, pleasant fantasies, and marketers help us with this, they make commercials about the lives of those who won the lottery, where actors dressed as billionaires enter clubs

[10:40] that we will never get into, winners in evening dresses and jackets enjoy life, clink glasses on the road with whom they relax and have a good time, we are convinced that anyone could be in their place, you just need to believe in chance and keep playing,

[10:59] show us people who won huge amounts of money just by buying a ticket. We are shown the winners for a reason. Marketers know how these photos of happy rich people influence other players. For example, scientists from the Netherlands

[11:11] found that the fear of losing is a very important factor in that people participate in the lottery. They are very afraid that they will remain in the country from missed opportunities to get rich. In other words, they spend money so as not to look at the new

[11:24] billionaire and not envy him. After all, they also tried to win this billion. It is natural to compare yourself and others. Here is a quote from one of the authors of the study to whom I spoke: If people around you do not drive limousines, you

[11:36] will be absolutely happy with yours, but if everyone around you uses expensive cars, you will feel less happy with what you have and this is very easy to manipulate. It is enough to show people who are getting richer right before

[11:49] people who are getting richer right before your eyes. To n’t even have to win the jackpot. Psychologists have noticed that thoughts about winning and real victory activate approximately the same areas of the brain. That is, people buy a

[12:05] ticket and are already starting to think about how they would spend this billion rubles That's why this advertising works so well People are already fantasizing about how they got into the elite club of billionaires That's why at the end of the year there will be advertising not

[12:18] only for Cola M&M's but also for lotteries and tickets are again hoarding millions People, after all, it's feel envy of the next billionaire And to hell with these quadrillions To hell with these mathematicians It's not easier to believe in an unlikely miracle

[12:33] and this Despite the fact that some crazy [ __ ] is more likely to happen to you than winning the lottery But for example, you unexpectedly became the president of the country on the very first day in a new position Went to get a lottery ticket but got into an

[12:46] accident I have two news for you I'll start with the good news The accident itself you were not injured True When you got out of the car you were struck by lightning at that very moment and you still died The probability that all this madness will happen to

[12:58] you in one day is several thousand times more likely than winning the lottery Therefore The next time you see a ticket at the checkout of a store or you come across a be scared if in your head The thought flashes through my mind: where would I spend

[13:13] [music] This is normal. We are jealous, we do not know how to be rational, our brain does not perceive the meager chances that we have of winning. In general, we are just people,

[13:27] so we divide a billion that we will never win. never win. [music]