1,300 Experts Just Predicted Bitcoin's Price

[00:02] starting. Bears think this is just another trap before we head lower. And depending on who you listen to, Bitcoin's either about to explode or built a model that tries to cut through all that noise by leveraging the widely

[00:17] examined phenomenon called the wisdom of the crowd. Basically, the concept behind the wisdom of the crowd is the collective intelligence of like a big group of experts is actually smarter and better at guessing things than any

[00:30] individual guess or any individual expert. Or as Grackapedia puts it, the wisdom of the crowd is the observation that the aggregated judgments of a large diverse group of independent individuals often produce more accurate estimates or

[00:43] predictions than those of a single expert or small elite. And this comes from an experiment by Francis Galton in 1907, where at a county fair he had 787 people try to guess the weight of an ox. And while any individual guess wasn't

[00:57] necessarily close to the actual weight, all the guesses aggregated together were actual weight of the ox. In fact, they were just 0.8% off the actual exact weight of the ox. And since then, this concept of the

[01:10] wisdom of the crowd or the collective intelligence has gained a lot of steam all dedicated to this phenomenon and studying how it works. CBS even made an solved various crimes using the wisdom of the crowd. And I wanted to test if

[01:25] actually do a decent job of predicting where Bitcoin's price would go in the future. So, I built a model that pulls from over 1,300 different sources. Bulls, bears, analysts, macro data, market commentary, and turns the overall

[01:39] consensus into a 30-day Bitcoin price prediction. And here's the crazy part. So far, I mean, I haven't tested it for a long time, but for as long as I've been testing it so far, it's actually been eerily accurate at predicting where

[01:52] Bitcoin's price was headed. Even during, you know, one of the most crazy, insane periods in macro history with the energy crisis and all this crazy stuff going on, it has been spot-on at predicting where Bitcoin's price would be 30 days

[02:06] in advance. So, in this video, I'm going to show you how it works, what it's predicting right now, and why this collective intelligence might be seeing currently missing. Okay, so in trying to design the ultimate wisdom of the crowd

[02:19] prediction model, I actually decided to not just do a basic median of everyone's collective opinion. Because after doing a ton of research on this and what works, it was really clear that in order to do what I wanted to do with this

[02:32] model, I had to take a little bit more of a sophisticated approach to how I And the approach I ended up going with is, as I said, I pull from 1,300 different sources, different data like ETF flows, on-chain wallets, minor

[02:45] from, you know, various prediction markets, a ton of different raw data. which maps basically a family tree of every single idea and consolidates those

[02:57] ideas down. So, if you have 200 people that are all repeating the same basic view, that idea gets collapsed down to one view, not 200 different views. This important when it came to getting this model to work. Part three is the

[03:09] mechanism detective. This breaks everything down into real why would Bitcoin move story. So, each mechanism is scored on evidence, strength, and no vague feelings. Basically, every opinion has to be supported by a thesis, by a

[03:21] reasoning for that opinion, rather than just like, I think it's going to go up going to go up. This eliminates a lot of just vague sort of worthless opinions, or necessarily putting in the work to try to predict where Bitcoin's price is

[03:35] going to go. Then the model goes through a four-pass system, which runs a full analysis four different times. So, there's the initial scan, there's a hunt for like various gaps in that scan, there's basically an overall red team

[03:47] produced before that, and then the final pass sharpens everything and brings it for this model, as I said at the start of this video, has been eerily accurate, overall holding an A grade over seven different predictions. Meaning, on

[04:01] average, it's off with its 30-day predictions by just 3.65%. prediction on March 11th, it predicted on April 10th the price of Bitcoin would hit $72,000. And the actual price that Bitcoin hit on

[04:15] April 10th was $72,000. On March 17th, it predicted for April 16th the price of Bitcoin would hit And you can see that the price of Bitcoin hit exactly $75,000 on April

[04:29] 16th. And you can see on March 31st, it predicted that on April 30th Bitcoin's price would hit $66,000. But then on April 14th, it revised that $77,000 on April 30th. That was 16 days ahead of

[04:45] the actual date, and Bitcoin's price ended up hitting 76,600. Not perfect, not magic, but eerily accurate to the actual thing that ended up happening, especially considering during those same time periods, you had

[04:58] most people most people on X, most people on YouTube, whatever, calling for a lower Bitcoin bottom, saying that Bitcoin was going to go to 50K, saying know, in Iran and the energy crisis, that Bitcoin was going to break below 60

[05:14] and go to 50 or 40 or 30, etc. During that entire time frame, you had a lot of people calling for that lower low, and yet the model was actually pointing higher and able to pretty much near perfect nail where Bitcoin's price

[05:26] what the model is saying is going to happen over the next 30 days. It's $82,500, up 3.8% from when I ran it this morning at $79,493 by June 3rd, 2026. And for this

[05:43] confidence. And basically, the dashboard tracks two different numbers that tell is this week's call. So, this is what the model actually spit out. It's saying And then there's the five-week consensus. This is like a blended

[05:57] consensus view on where Bitcoin's price is headed. So, it's not actually the model's call weighted with the past calls. And historically, the five-week consensus actually beats the weekly call on accuracy by around 1.7%. And this is

[06:12] meant, unlike more bullish weeks or or more bearish weeks, sometimes the model this kind of holds it back from overshooting too much by kind of tempering down on the bullishness or, you know, the fear, depending on which

[06:25] way price is heading that week. And the bottom line on why it's predicting this is it's saying ETF inflows, including the May 1st $630 million rebound and the $320 billion stablecoin supply, continue to provide the dominant structural bid.

[06:38] of people have been missing in this current market state is those ETF flows and how much different the current market setup is than past market cycles. release is the highest impact timing trigger inside the window, basically

[06:53] saying that there's could be some meaningful dip risk around that CPI crisis and everything going on with that, you would expect that to possibly be a little bit elevated, which could be very

[07:05] bearish for price momentum. But even so, it's saying the net 30-day outcome is a modest upside to around 82,500. That remains the highest probability Obviously, no forecast is perfect, and there always things that could end up

[07:18] derailing it. And basically, it's saying that the bear case is a 72 to 75K liquidity grab. As people get more bullish, they start to stack up those longs, which creates a foundation of liquidity sitting beneath current prices

[07:31] tempting for price to go down there and smack that liquidity before heading could see this happen driven by CPI surprise that kind of gives it its power to go tap that liquidity, and the fact that on May 29th we have an options

[07:45] expiry gamma unwind. It's saying buy market prices a meaningful 75K dip in May at 61 to 65% implied probability. Even so, it still thinks that's only a still saying it doesn't think that's likely, but it is pointing out that that

[07:59] scenario definitely does exist. And then what would prove this wrong? First off, a bullish falsifier. The forecast is too conservative if we get soft CPI and the ETF inflows streak continues. The bearish falsifier is the forecast is too

[08:12] optimistic if we see sustained ETF outflows breaking the recent trend or hotter than expected CPI triggering a risk-off move below 75K. And then of course, all the different events that could change or impact this prediction.

[08:25] guys think in the comments. I know this is like, I don't know, like my ninth model that I've that I've tried to build to try to predict where price is going. hobby of mine for, I guess, like the last 2 years. And

[08:39] along the way, a lot of hard lessons that I've learned in trying to build price is going. Which it's just like an insane task. Okay, that's that's like an But this model, the wisdom of the crowd model and the hidden state engine,

[08:54] I've learned in those failures. And so far, they both seem to be doing a pretty predicting where the market's going to go, at least so far for the past few out there on X who've been predicting price going lower. As always though, of

[09:08] anything with money. I'm obviously not your financial advisor. I do this for cuz I'm obsessed with it. And if you're curious about seeing my entire portfolio sell various tokens, as well as different weekly video market updates,

[09:24] to new members, but you can sign up for the waitlist in the description of this you want to see more videos like this, make sure you hit that subscribe button notified each time I release a new video. Thanks for watching, and I'll see

[09:37] video. Thanks for watching, and I'll see you next week.