I've Been Waiting 5 Years for This Crypto Signal (It Just Flipped Green)

[00:01] mode for crypto since basically August 2025 with the TGA rebuild sucking through September and then the longest government shutdown in history further weakening liquidity in October through November. And then of course there's the

[00:17] 1010 doomsday event for crypto where we saw the largest liquidate like mass liquidations in crypto in the history of of crypto even bigger than the FTX all of that. that's basically left crypto mangled in sentiment the worst

[00:33] I've ever seen in my entire history of investing in crypto. However, today we got the single most bullish signal that we've gotten this entire cycle. The biggest piece of evidence that we have that crypto is heading higher in 2026.

[00:48] Something we haven't seen since 2021. I'll also be diving into the current we have a government shutdown right now and we have like this little mini TGA rebuild going on. It's not the same as

[01:00] what we saw in late 2025. In fact, liquidity has never been as primed as it is today this entire cycle and we're really just waiting on one single thing. Okay, this is the ISM purchasing managers index and this is something

[01:14] that you know obviously is referenced a ton on X. It's something I've talked a lot about in past videos, and for good reason, and that's because all past crypto bull runs line up with the ISM passing into booming territory. When

[01:27] when you have economic expansion, and it's reflected in the ISM, that's when you typically see crypto bull runs. You can see 2013, we had a crazy crypto bull run. 2017, we had a crazy crypto bull run. 2021, we had a crazy crypto bull

[01:42] run. And these all coincide with economic expansion as indicated by the ISM. But as I've pointed out way too many times, this entire cycle, we have many times, this entire cycle, we have not seen any meaningful moves above the

[01:56] 50 mark in the ISM. Uh the entire Bitcoin bull run, Bitcoin going from 16K Bitcoin bull run, Bitcoin going from 16K to 126K has been with the ISM below the 50 mark. And I've talked a lot about why this is and why a lot of the demand for

[02:11] crypto has been structural demand from these ETFs. Okay, you have a lot of ETF flows. You have a lot of narrative around uh crypto because of stable coins, because of uh institutional adoption, etc. But it's been mostly a

[02:24] rotational game. We haven't had like a real crypto bull run since 2021 because we haven't had a real economic boom since 2021. And you can see the closest that we've gotten in terms of the ISM has been was this little tiny tick right

[02:38] here. And I'll zoom in so it could be a little bit clearer. But right here in late 2024, we had the ISM absolutely climb all the way up to just barely over its head up and then it collapsed right back down. And this coincided perfectly,

[02:53] if you guys remember, late 2024 with an epic crypto all season like mini bull run, right? late 2024, you know, all tokens were going insane. The market was going insane. It was absolutely bananas. And it perfectly coincided with this

[03:07] little run up in the ISM. But besides that, this entire cycle, the ISM has been stuck under the 50 mark. Okay. But that finally changed today. Today, the consensus was that the ISM would come in around 48, but it actually came in at

[03:21] 52.6. Clearly, this isn't reflected yet in this chart. This chart hasn't updated to reflect this move up in the ISM. And Ju, literally just a couple hours ago. For whatever reason, this chart hasn't

[03:35] updated. But this is about what it looks like. We went from here all the way to about here. What you can see is the most meaningful move up in the ISM since 2021. We haven't had anything like this. This isn't just peaking above like what

[03:50] we saw in November of 2024. This is a real move above the 50 mark. and the strongest indicator that we have that crypto is primed to do well in 2026. We just have a couple things holding us back. And let me explain why this the

[04:06] ISM even matters. Like the ISM doesn't directly matter for crypto like in the sense that like it doesn't measure anything that has to do with crypto. business cycle. It's tracking is the economy heating up. And the reason this

[04:21] matters for crypto altcoins specifically is altcoins live on the furthest edge of the risk curve. And they only do well when there's abundance, when there's froth. They're like Rolexes. They're like Lambos. They're like these luxury

[04:33] sort of items that only go up when people have abundance. They're not when there's scarcity, when there's a when there's a lack, you know, people don't have a lot to go around. When that happens, people tend to seek out safer

[04:45] assets, which is why typically gold, silver, etc. run before Bitcoin runs is because typically you have, you know, more this environment of fear before you have this environment of speculation and economic expansion in the business cycle

[04:59] heating up, which is where I'm projecting that we go in 2026. And this again, the ISM is the first indicator showing as like evidence and proof that we might just be heading there in 2026. And just so you don't think I'm making

[05:12] showing the the print from today. This one has updated. It's showing 52.6. 6. Again, I don't know why the Trading View from OnX from Bull Theory saying, "Breaking ISM manufacturing PMI just

[05:25] "Breaking ISM manufacturing PMI just came in at a 40month high of 52.6. came in at a 40month high of 52.6. Expected was 48.5. The ISM above 50 is bullish for markets. And it's not just bullish for markets, it is exceptionally

[05:37] bullish for specifically crypto. And that's because even Bitcoin, which is in thing. That's where you put your money if you want it to be safe." Well, in the grand scheme of like other assets, crypto or Bitcoin is kind of far out on

[05:52] extremely risky by a lot of people and that's why it acts and behaves in a way that's kind of confusing. Sometimes it's it's this hedge against monetary Other times it it doesn't and that's because Bitcoin's a newer asset. Not

[06:06] And then there's all kinds of other narratives and things that play like the four-ear cycle etc. the 10-10 liquidation day event that that plays perceive how much of a flight to safety Bitcoin really is. And so, you know, at

[06:21] ways. Now, I mentioned liquidity conditions are actually primed right now. In fact, I mentioned that liquidity conditions today are the best that they've been this entire cycle and and they are primed to go higher in 2026.

[06:34] There's just one thing holding us back. And I've talked about this a lot before in past videos, but I wanted to show you another perspective than just my own. Recently, this article came out from Ralph Paul talking about the same exact

[06:46] that there's another factor at play that we have all missed. That factor is that two shutdowns and issues with US plumbing. Exactly what I've been talking about for a long time. The liquidity is there. It's just that the plumbing is

[07:01] of the market specifically that the amount of liquidity that get it can suck up uh isn't a lot. It's kind of like there's a big dam, okay, and behind that dam is like this giant ocean of liquidity, but at the base of that dam

[07:14] liquidity from is just like this little pond. Okay, so behind the damn ocean of pulling from is just like this little pond. Okay, and so there's not enough to go around in terms of the markets, but it's not that the liquidity is not

[07:29] They're trying to open the dam. Uh it it's just something's stuck and we got liquidity can come out. And he talks about here that the rally in gold liquidity out of the system that would have flowed into Bitcoin and SAS. There

[07:42] was not enough liquidity to support all these assets. So the risk got hit. And this is the chart that I show over and over and over again. And this does a really good job at showing you the liquidity is there. It's just not out in

[07:54] the system yet. And this is what I'm talking about. Look at this. Okay, this has been okay. So, this was 2021 right here and this has been everything since 2021. So, when I say we have the best liquidity setup that we've had since

[08:06] 2021, I'm talking about this. Okay, this has been liquidity setup since then. And right now, we are higher than at any point that that we've been since 2021 in sitting higher over here. Okay. Uh we

[08:20] are looking pretty dang good over here. This is amazing. This is a huge like if you compare this to 2013 bull market, okay? Huge surge of liquidity, which I point out all the time how these look similar. Look at this. Like 2013, 2017,

[08:33] similar. Look at this. Like 2013, 2017, 2021. You go back to this chart. 2013, 2017, 2021. These things go together. Okay? So, you can see 2013, 2017, and 2021. These are all huge big old bursts in the momentum of liquidity. Okay? This

[08:48] isn't the same thing as just liquidity going up. Liquidity always goes up. We time. I talk about it all the time. That doesn't matter. This is the momentum of liquidity, how fast liquidity is going up. And you have huge bursts in 2013,

[09:01] 2017, 2021. And the biggest burst we've seen is this one right here that we're starting to look on par with, you know, somewhere between 2013 and 2017. Like good. And it's kind of funny. This looks the same as this chart. Uh if you look

[09:17] at it, like everything kind of maps, you know, one for one. Even this big burst in the ISM, uh, you know, up to 52 lines up pretty perfectly with this big burst, uh, which is kind of funny. And both of these charts line up perfectly with

[09:30] crypto bull runs. Both of these line up perfectly with crypto bull runs. It is things, these are the conditions that preede alt season that preede crypto bull runs. So liquidity right now is the best it's ever been, the best it's been

[09:44] since 2021. The problem is it's the the plumbing is clocked. It's stuck in the different factors that keep it stuck. But this dam is about to break. The dam is about to open and the market is about to get flooded with liquidity. When I

[09:59] I don't mean this month. I mean this is imminent in the term of like this year. Okay, this year is when you start to see either this dam fully break open or you market. And that's when you're going to see that marginal bid in all in alts and

[10:15] in crypto as a whole start to go higher. But also, I want to point out the fact that right now Bitcoin is sitting amazing. Right now, Bitcoin is sitting at $78,000. So, if you're looking at like Bitcoin

[10:27] and like when Bitcoin is sitting at 120K, okay, people felt like that was pretty expensive. But down at 70K, okay, at the bottom we hit like 73, 74, like, oh, you know, Bitcoin needs to hit 140, 150K in order to double your money,

[10:43] disagreement that that's inevitable. like Bitcoin will hit 150K. I don't I don't know anyone that that disagrees with that. A lot of people agree it's going to hit 250K, 300K, 500K. It's just like different timelines of when that's

[10:57] like different timelines of when that's going to happen, but 150K that is, you far away. That's not like some pipe dream of like, oh, you know, maybe it'll for you, doubling your money is not that big of a deal. Uh but think about like,

[11:10] money, okay? You got 10 million, you got can't invest in all these alts. You can't invest in all these things. Do 100x. You can invest in Bitcoin. There's enough liquidity there, you know, and

[11:22] billion dollars. You put a billion into Bitcoin. It doubles to two billion. You just made a billion dollars. Okay, that that's a huge move for you. And so it attractive at these price levels, especially relative to gold, etc. Which,

[11:36] you know, gold's a, you know, multi-dea trillion asset. I mean, it doubling from here is really hard to do. It can. I mean, it's shown us it can, but even a marginal amount of that liquidity had, you know, going into Bitcoin is Bitcoin

[11:49] doubling, tripling, 10xing, you know, crazy things. Crazy things. So, I think Bitcoin at 70K is is actually a pretty good buy for a lot of buyers. I I think a lot of people see this and think, "Wow, this is a good time to get in uh

[12:02] believers um are having a hard time wrapping their head around this because the four-ear cycle is over the course of the next year Bitcoin should go from its high all the way down to around 69K. Uh but we're basically like we're not that

[12:17] far away from that and it's you know it just turned February. So you know even level I was planning on buying at. It's just it's way too early. What's going on? Um you know that's a little bit of a breaking of that fourear cycle narrative

[12:30] some buyers jump in from there. My point is right now, if you sit sit back, zoom out, I know it's been brutal. I know it's been pain only since August 2025. And this has gone on a lot longer than anyone expected. I understand that. And

[12:44] don't want to invest. They don't want to put their money in, etc. But right now, bring all these things together, the the setup is looking primed. Um, as the one common denominator with every crypto crash in history. They always seem to be

[13:00] the end of crypto and they always become rounding errors in the long run. The same will happen with the 2025 to 2026 bare market. The current setup lines up on multiple fronts as an awesome buying opportunity when it comes to the the

[13:12] full scale of crypto. I think the ISM taking over 50 is not something to be lightly ignored. And I think that is one of the strongest bat signals that now is the time to to buy and that possibly we have seen the bottom of this mark. And I

[13:26] I know I already said this. I I said this at 90K. I call out my errors and I said at 90K, you know, I think this is the bottom. I was obviously completely wrong about that. I, you know, fully underestimated how bad things could get.

[13:40] you know, from this point forward, but I'm telling you, looking at this setup, looking at how things are forming, this really does feel like we are at the bottom right here and that we are likely to head higher from here into 2026. I

[13:54] be this week, next week, all that kind of stuff, but but this is a prime setup. I I have not sold. I'm still holding my AVO. I'm still holding my Infra. I'm still holding my RSC. And in terms of those like AI ones, like look at what's

[14:08] happening with AI. I'm so bullish on those things. When the market appetite returns uh for altcoins, I'm so bullish on those things going into late 2026. We are going to hit a new all-time high for Bitcoin this year. I believe I got my

[14:21] money where my mouth is. And for the first time in the last few months, I am pumped. And if you're curious about seeing my entire portfolio or you want tokens, as well as different weekly

[14:34] Obsidian Council is closed to new members, but you can sign up for the video. As always, none of this is investment advice. Now, this is me money. I'm obviously not your financial adviser, and you should always do your

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