AI Rally Fades, Metals Surge — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:02] leading the way. Uh silver is up 4% right now. But my name is Mike Butler. the YouTube chat if you haven't already. We're streaming live there and we'll get your questions and great ideas throughout the day. But Jamal, happy

[00:15] >> Happy Wednesday. Happy Wednesday. As we're talking about Wednesday, before I get to my thoughts, uh let's show the people what we have in store today on people what we have in store today on this show. Morning news with Chris Veio

[00:28] in just under four minutes. Here we got morning movers with Gust at 8 am central time. Got overnight moves with the lovely Liz Deer King at 8:30 a.m. of course is the opening bell central time. Then we have a check-in with Errol at

[00:41] the SIBO at 8:45 Central time. Of course, Even though it's a SIBO check-in, he will be talking about things in terms of NASDAQ, which he usually does. Uh what do we got after that? Oh yeah, we got trades of the day.

[00:53] Of course, uh, I kick it off at 11:30 a.m. Central time. Mike is next, followed by Errol, followed by Gus. That's right, four in a row. We're giving you a trade of the day. How we're running it down, what we're looking at,

[01:05] So, you don't want to miss it. Uh, it's been a great segment. We've got a lot of check those out. >> Yeah, it's going to be another wild day and uh cannot wait for it. It's going to be plenty of trading opportunities. kind

[01:19] of an interesting day with the E- Minis and NASDAQ up the same uh monetary value up 30 points. Feels like a day where we might slide to the downside. Uh >> I don't know, man. >> I think we keep going up till till

[01:33] Friday comes. I I put on a super bear yesterday for Friday for the jobs report. I don't I mean, look, I was we were just kind of talking about this see these last however many green bars we got and it's been accompanied by

[01:46] volume. Um, so as much as I would like to think we're going to fade, I don't >> we'll see. >> Hey, we could just keep on trucking to 8,000 plus. Uh, but I need to I need to make an adjustment to this uh straddle

[02:01] year-long trade. >> I had to do it yesterday myself. Yeah, >> because we're at the money now. At >> one point, I was 800 points in the >> I know. It's crazy. 45 point implied

[02:14] move for today, 60 point implied move for tomorrow and uh 80 points for the rest of the week. But uh is there is there a number coming out at 7:30 or did a number just come out? >> Um probably 80p or something like that,

[02:27] you know. I mean these are the lesser there's no major numbers um you know to that comes out this week but it's we're all just kind of waiting for um real today? Um >> I feel like yesterday we had a 20 P came

[02:42] out at at 7:15 central time. >> Yeah, we had like a 30 point implied move yesterday which felt really light. Uh so just seeing a 40 handle spooked me >> Yeah. Yeah. ADP just came out again. Um I mean I don't even know what it said

[02:57] and but it's it's not a major mover. It's just the the precursor uh to to the the maiden jobs report on on Friday, right? It's usually how it goes. Um and uh we do get crude oil numbers on

[03:10] those every Wednesday for however many long. Uh that's a regular Wednesday of the war that would be something that would move crude oil. It has not. Nobody numbers we get every week. So, who cares? What really matters is uh these

[03:24] silver. We'll come back to that. But like you mentioned, SpaceX, we got AMD. AMD faded after earnings. SpaceX did too. Both of them went up into earnings and then faded um as the earnings came out. And I know for a fact it was it was

[03:40] uh again free cash flow with AMD. Not sure what it was with SpaceX. I know we have some some uh stuff to to go over with regard to some of these earnings in SpaceX, but free cash flow was the thing with them. That seems to be the big

[03:53] theme here in this earning season. If you have negative free cash flow, it hammered and that's just how it goes. >> Yeah. Um, yeah, SpaceX, I was hoping for a rally here, but not looking like that's going to be the case. Uh, I did

[04:09] sell a 10point wide or 5 point wide put spread at 110, 105 to finance a, uh, spread at 110, 105 to finance a, uh, near-term butterfly at the 130, 140, 150 levels. So, as long as we stay above 112 over the next couple weeks, it'll still

[04:24] be a net winner because that was a dollar credit overall. And then AMD, I spreads we put on in the morning into the rip because it just ripped 40 more calendar spread. So I was like, you know what, I don't I don't need to hold this

[04:40] risk anymore. So uh took it off. But >> I did um the 550 and then I did the 575 off the 550 like you cuz I was like, okay, it was already at 526. This was

[04:53] ripped. that wasn't going to help. Anyway, I kept it on the 575. I actually added a 600. So, >> the big hope here now is that this thing how it goes. Maybe I can get another Boeing type situation where uh it faded

[05:07] earnings. >> Yeah, we got Chris Veio on the line as always. It is just past 7:35 a.m. I want to hear what you have to say about these doing? >> Yeah, did you play these?

[05:20] >> Uh, I did play AMD. I didn't play SpaceX, which thankfully cuz I was going given the short interest there and it wouldn't have worked out. So, glad I'm just in AMD. >> Yeah, wild day. Uh AMD, like Jamal

[05:35] mentioned, free cash flow issues. Same story. Doesn't matter what the stock is. Same story every single time. >> Same story every single time. Um I'm in the iron condor that expires in two days. Uh 480 475 short strikes on the

[05:50] put side. So that's going to be at the wire. The short call spread side is uh wire. The short call spread side is uh 585 590. So right at the open. Um I'm this thing because I think what we may, you know, the tape's holding up. S&P's

[06:05] holding up overnight. Uh even gold is flying. So take off the call spread anything. Let's see if the put spread side can do something uh maybe here before the close and get us back to break even at least on that leg.

[06:19] really have been hanging out a lot because she's talking about PMIs now and then I see you trading a lot more near-term. That was not your when we Tuesday and Thursday. So, that's hilarious. But even bigger than that,

[06:32] what's going on with this gold and and silver, right? Gold is clearly above all of a sudden it's poking through. See the dollar below par for the first time >> Beach ball underwater. Rates were ticking up. Real yields kept going

[06:45] higher. Gold stopped going down. uh Ilio was sniffing this out before I was and so I know he's going to be happy about this. But uh you know why wasn't gold making any significant moves lower throughout the month of June and July

[06:58] rates doing what they were doing. So that's usually a tell. Um maybe the regime shifted. In any event, I'm long. I'm happy to be long right now. Uh the like the 5,000 calls at the end of the year and I didn't have the courage to

[07:12] just gets me to do that. >> [snorts] Chris I know. >> Were you in GC or GLD for those calls? >> He's in G. >> I'm in G. I trade GC.

[07:26] >> Yeah. I I would imagine they they're still they haven't they probably haven't pretty far out of the money, but um they'll they'll pick up a little bit of uh value here. >> Yeah. Well, I mean, the expected move

[07:39] for gold through the end of the year is basically to 4750 right now to the upside. I mean, it could go there, could not go there, but um 5,000 calls are beyond the expected move. And we've done this dance before, Jamal.

[07:51] >> Yes, sir. >> Uh, you know, risking 960 bucks for 100 points wide, 5,5100. Thinking about it. >> Why not >> risk one to make 10,

[08:04] >> Yeah. Yeah. And the volatility here isn't exactly perking up yet, which is on the sidelines from really jumping in. I I we like to see gold V and silverv aggressive up moves. And even on a day like today, it's not really the case.

[08:19] IVR is still below 26 here in GC. >> Mhm. >> Not exactly the sexiest entry. And and and we're bumping into our 50-day moving market's pulling back from ever so slightly here. Uh if you were to go back

[08:31] that's where we ran into resistance in midappril in the early part of May. So to rest at and clear. And stocks have made such a big move up the past 5 days

[08:44] now that it does also beg the question, you know, when do we get to see a breather in the current risk on dollar off rates lower uh uh push. >> I want to ask you about another chart man 6J. I mean um talk about upside. I

[08:59] mean could we be seeing 67 or something like that from here? I hope that we see 0065 in the next two days because I had my intervention call sitting out there. Come on, Bessant. Little bit more. You can do it.

[09:13] >> Yeah. No, I mean I went further out and I did a 0067 call. Um I mean it's not a Two October. I can't remember the months. Um but >> this is explicitly an effort to save long yields here in the United States.

[09:29] Japan despite being the nation that it is holds I think about 1.2 2 trillion in US debt. We have a 40 trillion debt load here, but 1.2 trillion can still move interventions, uh the Ministry of Finance, the fiscal authority, they can

[09:44] draw down their FX reserves. How do they go about doing that? They may have they may have things that are basically liquid dollar equivalents, cash or cash equivalents as they might say, and those would be US treasuries. So if they want

[09:58] shift their reserve profile to defend the yen, they could in theory sell treasuries, convert them to dollars, convert them back to yen, and all of a sudden you're selling dollars to buy yen. You're intervening, but you're

[10:12] So what's the knock on effect there, gentlemen? If we add a whole bunch of it's probably going to push up yields. We know the Trump administration uh it's Twitter. I've retweeted it myself, but anytime like the the 10ear yield gets

[10:28] around 4.7, it's like Michael Jackson holding out his hand and lowering the gun, the Trump administration backs off whatever they're doing. And so we had a 10-year yield last week near 47 and then we get this intervention. And is it

[10:41] Japan selling dollars to buy the yen? No, it's the US Treasury selling euros to buy the yen. So why are we doing this? Because we don't want long yields ceiling on long yields. Certainly the market can do what it wants to do, but

[10:57] in terms of the yen, which is where your question was directed at, the floor that like a little bit more appealing. If we get a pullback in 6J, selling puts get a pullback in 6J, selling puts against 61, 62, looking long at 64, 65

[11:10] calls seems like something that should be in everyone's bag. Um, because It's not just Japan defending the currency. We now have our authorities in it as well. >> I mean, see, that's exactly it. Uh I

[11:23] this movie called Sideways. It's a great movie. Paul Giamati is in it and he's such a you know wine connoisseur, Somalia if you will and he has a friend him about the tannins and the wine and all the things that are going along with

[11:36] Can I drink it now? So that can I just buy calls now Chris? I mean in the end I mean it sounds like >> that that's that's how I feel about it. how you pulled that off but it works. [laughter]

[11:50] actor in the scenario. Like that's >> That was fascinating. [laughter] >> Yeah. This is I've man like two years >> to do what? To cut rates and now he takes the helm and it's like oh jeez

[12:04] can't cut rates yet. So instead of raising rates which would draw President Trump's sire. Instead he's biting time. So the next move doesn't need to be a So the next move doesn't need to be a hike perhaps. Uh oil prices have come in

[12:16] bit higher, 6/10 of a percent, but it's not in the '9s. And Brent isn't above 100. And so if you're thinking about inflation down the line, then maybe we even though it's still definitely coming. Maybe it's not just be as bad as

[12:31] it could be, and it wouldn't warrant a hike. So, uh, you know, let's look at been a little bit softer on the margins. Kevin Worsh's favorite gauge is PCE, particular core PCE. Those have been falling back in recent readings. Um, and

[12:45] last Wednesday, guys, reflation's back on the menu, right? We get fewer hikes than expected at the margin, relatively looser monetary policy. I've been beating this drum. September 24, we get 50 cuts instead of 25 of cuts, right?

[13:00] And what happens? Yields blow out, stocks go up, reflation, and what have we seen since last week? Treasury curve is steeper. NASDAQ's up 7%. from the Wednesday open. So, uh, like how long this lasts, who knows what the Fed is

[13:15] they're going to get in the way. And also, earnings growth is so dang good There's a reason why S&P is sitting at 7,800. >> There's a reason. And, um, financials are right behind them. Financials were

[13:27] was strong yesterday. XLK, those type of names. Um, we'd be remiss if we didn't Lily kind of moving to the downside. Shopify moving up big on earnings. Uber is down. So, it didn't follow the software trend more recently.

[13:42] >> So, I think Lily is having a bouncer. I have 1166 now for Lily. Is it pre-market from 11:15? >> Disney had earnings. Uh, Circle had earnings. Didn't trade any of those, but obviously um they had earnings.

[13:57] So, big ones tonight though. SanDisk and and WDC. What do we think's going to happen there? >> I suppose it's going to be like an AMD situation, right? uh are they going to be able to show the world that they're

[14:11] not using their money to uh potentially eat into their own profit margins in the future? If AMD is cash flow is going down because its capex is going through the roof, what is a company like AMD doing for capex? It's building out its

[14:23] factories, its supply chain, right? Which then means more supply of its own chips in the market, which in the future means more chips out there. So the supply glut is absolutely going to be resolved. But here's the deal, guys.

[14:38] this is going to be a worse chip glut worse chip shortage than we've seen this year. Um, going through a lot of these companies reports now, s they are fully booked out. Like there's no more capacity for basically Samsung, SK,

[14:51] Highex, name one of these chip makers, and the orders that have been delivered in recent weeks, they're only like 60 to 70% of the volume that's been promised because like we just can't get enough going around. So structurally, the

[15:05] entire sector seems supported by short-term tailwinds. Uh how far into the future the market is dragging forward earnings expectations is another where a few months ago it's like, oh, we're pricing in all of forthcoming

[15:17] growth for the next decade. Okay, maybe that's too much. But this sector is cash flow. If you're spending the money, do you have a path to making the money? to eat away your own margins, then why are you spending the money in the first

[15:31] place? >> Yeah. a nod to Uber selling off team Veio all day [laughter] we also had >> I forgot about that.

[15:43] sorry Chris >> just take a look at this ticker symbol >> just take a look at this ticker symbol EL which I imagine is just Elon Lol. >> Leverage shares of Tesla and SpaceX. >> Incredible stuff.

[15:55] >> That's socred talking about man. Uh but speaking of SpaceX, uh yesterday I put on a trade >> uh a kind of a neutral to bullish trade, short put spread in August to finance a

[16:09] butterfly, seeing it down at 110 right now. But uh I feel like this is just one of those things where it's Tesla all over again. You're going to see losses reported in SpaceX, but it's all about the narrative. Um, so I was I was

[16:22] talking about the importance uh potential importance of the conference call and our amazing production team actually pulled together some clips. We want to show them. We've got them load them up and going forward we've decided

[16:34] to build exclusively on Nvidia uh because we think the uh the Bar Rubin architecture is is the best architecture. We think it's the best AI computer and um and we greatly value our close cooperation and partnership on

[16:51] close cooperation and partnership on many levels with Nvidia. So we're uh forward. >> So you mentioned Nvidia like three >> Yeah. [laughter] >> What's the poly market on that?

[17:03] >> Nvidia. Nvidia >> and Nvidia's up four bucks premarket. >> Yeah. >> Is it a bet in the background? [laughter] Um, yeah, I think it's interesting. Uh,

[17:15] and you know, SpaceX down, Nvidia up. I mean, SpaceX, I feel like we're all in bullish trades. It's just how are you going to place a bearish trade when if there's a short covering, you see a massive rally. But,

[17:30] >> I feel better now about doing it today for what it's worth. >> I actually didn't do anything specific for earnings per se. I actually played SK Highix for these earnings just figuring you know the rising tide would

[17:42] lift off boat so it's kind of flat. It was around here. It was a little higher yesterday but >> I sold a October I think 12100 put >> I sold a October I think 12100 put spread to buy the 150 um 170 in the near

[17:55] term in the August 7th expiration thinking you know we'd get the move. Um but yeah, so I bought the 1501 170 call spread there and sold the October 12100

[18:08] put spread. >> Yeah. spreads like this, but again, I just wanted to. >> Now, it was for a credit yesterday. I think it was 120. It was like 55% credit

[18:20] >> Oh, these trades. Yeah. These are It's basically a calendarized Super Bowl >> Mhm. Well, it was kind of what remember Liz just came on yesterday with the AMD decided to do a put spread.

[18:34] >> Yeah, I liked that trade a lot. >> The uh the short put to finance the call >> Yeah. >> Um Yeah. And that's that's the way you earnings reports and the premium related to the two-day relative to further dated

[18:47] to the two-day relative to further dated cycles. Uh so yeah, plenty of time >> So Mike, I I got a question here that came in to me uh yesterday. Uh we're companies that have reported are now preparing their dividends and those are

[19:01] going to be coming out in the next few weeks. I was looking around names here because tech has obviously had a really nice run the last few days and some of the stuff that's not tech has been ignored and put to the wayside, but that

[19:14] I'm looking at the Kimberly Clarks, the Proctor and Gamles, the J&Js, the Philip spreads here. But the question I saw on Twitter was, "How do you sell a put spread or a call spread in a stock that has dividends coming up? Does it change

[19:28] your approach whatsoever?" For me, the answer is yes. I usually look beyond the divid date. Uh but I'm curious how you handle it knowing that something like J&J has dividends in 18 days. >> Yeah, you can see this here. If you pull

[19:41] >> Yeah, you can see this here. If you pull up the overview tab, you can see uh$134 up the overview tab, you can see uh$134 August 25th. Uh pretty big one here. But yeah, I think to your point, if you go beyond that date, you will uh see a

[19:55] little disparity between the premium here, but it's kind of all-incclusive, right? Like you'll the stock price will drop by the dividend itself u and the dividend will be released. But really, I think the big thing is just making sure

[20:08] you're not on the wrong side of it. So if you have a short call that's in the money and that short call has less than a $134 of exttrinsic value then you have a higher risk of being exercised or assigned on that option and then you are

[20:23] at the mercy of paying the dividend. So that's really my my only thing that I consider in terms of potential risks. But to your point Chris like the further out you go the more extrinsic value you have and the safer that trade is.

[20:38] >> Yeah. >> Avoid getting sucked in and getting >> Which is always fun. >> 100%. >> we actually got some art cards. We got some art cards for a couple of these

[20:51] earnings. Uber, SpaceX, Lily, AMD. Let's uh let's put those out there >> SpaceX. Yeah, interesting stuff for SpaceX. >> 11 billion in capex. Those those words just get people in

[21:06] trouble, man. capex and reash flow. >> It's so funny, guys. Remember the 2010s stagnation. No one's spending any money." And now it's like, "Whoa, hey, spending it." >> Right.

[21:20] cycles. >> Yeah. Let's go to the next one. over there? You all right? >> 24% delivery. 28%. I mean, I I actually

[21:35] use it a lot for delivery food. We're I'm lazy. I >> I you know, I had been using Uber Eats and like I'm a you know, I guess I'm a But even with the discounts, I was looking and I did the math recently and

[21:49] >> you know, that >> premium for my groceries, even with all >> Yeah. >> And like I'm not I'm not doing it >> Yeah. I know. >> Yeah.

[22:02] one of those things where it's like you just shop around. What? Where's my Where's the biggest deal today >> for this delivery I need right now. live in the city. So, when it's like, I even want an Uber. It's like, oh, can I

[22:16] have a car there in 25 minutes. >> Yeah. [laughter] Okay. Yeah. >> 11 billion in revenue. God, he's the >> 11 billion in revenue. God, he's the data center revenue. 6.72

[22:30] billion. They're going to keep making money. Keep making money. >> They're going to keep making money and that's really it. That it's almost triple.

[22:43] >> That's huge. And so that definitely takes things down a stock. But guys, I mean, >> think about the SpaceX valuation versus the AMD valuation. How much money did SpaceX make on their revenue last

[22:56] year versus AMD? I think it was 11.5 billion here for AMD. And it's less than with the >> one trillion plus valuation. And AMD >> right? >> You know, is is a bubble. AMD is in a

[23:09] >> I know, right? How does it make it make sense? It's just saying this for months. The semiconductors are now being treated defense and energy. There is a complete rerating and understanding of how the

[23:24] cycle is being uh changed moving forward. The cyclicality of it. That's why I was the idiot buying semis and stuff on the way down and getting slammed until the past few days. But patience is a virtue. Um the business

[23:36] models haven't fundamentally changed. The earnings are outrageously good. to say by this? It almost feels like April and May again where it's like yeah oil's up or down and the Fed may or may not hike rates but that's going to shave

[23:50] three at the high end. Sure. But earnings growth is up 4,700 basis points earnings growth is up 4,700 basis points this quarter. So 4,700 last 300. Okay.

[24:02] So we net it out. It's still a pretty dang good market. [sighs and gasps] it with a grain of salt when I say, you know, I really one of the best things I read news, but I don't really pay a whole lot of attention to it. I pay much

[24:15] way that things are moving. I think you just have to because again the sentiment was so bad a couple weeks ago that you thought for sure the market was about to right? >> It was Leo's fault. I mean, let's just

[24:28] the market cleared all the leverage last week. That's what gave me the confidence did this to Sam Bakeman Freed >> that our our beautiful poor boy Sam >> Yeah. [laughter]

[24:42] >> FD FTX gets knocked out and Bitcoin bottoms that day and the pain ends. >> Yeah. And this is this is a story as old as time. And we were talking about this of how people make money in the market, they are varied. They are different.

[24:56] how people lose money in the market are the same exact story. It's too much leverage. So he's cleared and the market's up in a straight line since this guy gets knocked out. Come on. >> Yeah, I know. But before that story hit

[25:10] though, everybody felt like, oh, the chips are so at semi and it was like so then as that story was hitting, it was like, "Oh, maybe this is this. Oh, this know? So, >> yeah.

[25:23] >> There's that little curlyhaired cherub. But the reality is, guys, that we are just we are this. We're just actors in Ken Griffin's world. I mean, like Citadel, I I believe this to my bones. You put out that rate hike thing last

[25:36] week. You buy the book and then you put out your note this week saying that, All clear to start buying again." >> Come on. You make that you make this you make this heterodox [clears throat] call on the Fed hiking to panic everyone.

[25:49] Citadel the smartest people in the room they think this. So oh what we what >> Okay. All right. >> Yeah. I think this I think it's uh it's >> Yeah. I think this I think it's uh it's just a testament to the RSP verse NDX

[26:02] versus SPX call out where it's like you can you can kind of read the room a little bit better if you understand that uh equal weight is still at highs while concentrated are going down. it tells you there's a rotation into other stuff

[26:16] versus just one one sector getting decimated where if you have the blinders sector you're like we're going to zero at things like RSP and even the Russell

[26:28] 2000 because those are just it's not the same quality of companies the companies see like the MAG7 breaking down or the NASDAQ breaking down but RSP and S&P and the Russell are holding up it just it's that indication that money is slloshing

[26:42] around in the market. It's not leaving equities. It's just being reallocated across equities. And uh you know, it's one of those signposts that you notice to get too up in an environment where the market is still holding up together?

[26:55] Sure, the index is down, but there was a lot of junk in there anyway because of >> it's been helpful. >> Yep. >> Well, boys, it's been a fun 30 minutes. We've got uh another 30 minutes to go

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[29:27] >> What's up everyone? Welcome back to the show. We got E- Minis up 37, NASDAQ up show. We got E- Minis up 37, NASDAQ up 76. We got Gus Downing in the house for a little look at some action from overnight moves, pre-market moves. How

[29:39] >> Doing good. Yeah, we got we got some action indeed. Uh we got the the the big obviously moving. We'll we'll touch on those briefly. Uh then we got uh we got more more disease outbreaks to cover as well. So excited. Excited to get into

[29:52] down? >> No. No. I've never gotten that. >> We could We could do that. >> Yeah. We could work that in. >> Got no problem with it. I'll answer to whatever. [laughter]

[30:05] >> Um Yeah. Okay. Let's let's dive straight in. First story of the day. Won't spend long here. If Did you guys know SpaceX had earnings yesterday? Uh SpaceX did report yesterday sinking hard off the open as I'm sure that you're already

[30:17] aware. Uh the main issue was that they said their capex jumped up to uh $18.4 billion in the second quarter. That is a six-fold increase. So a lot uh so so to

[30:29] funniest part of this was the way that Elon tried to save it. He said, >> "Oh, but wait, wait, wait. We're going to hit 1 trillion annual revenue in 2030 >> we're actually a year a year ahead on the one trillion annual revenue. So

[30:44] the one trillion annual revenue. So never fear everybody. uh the path there remains nebulous, but it could it could happen. It could certainly happen. Uh I just that's that's that's where we're at on SpaceX. So, uh yeah, worth worth the

[30:57] coverage. Uh but SpaceX real real rough go with it. Uh first first few months in the market here. Uh second and more exciting story to cover is that uh after we discussed uh just last week, maybe the week before about how Taco Bell was

[31:11] giving everybody diarrhea, cycllosporasis, uh we now have Chipotle giving everybody salmonella. Uh Chipotle, there has been a salmonella outbreak that began in Minnesota is proposed linked or purportedly linked to

[31:24] uh Chipotle's jalapenos specifically. um they pulled their entire jalapeno supply, have issued have then restocked all of their jalapenos with uh vegetables from a different grower. So

[31:36] they say that the move is done out of abundance of caution. They gave their whole PR press release. We care deeply about the health of our employees and our customers. Abundance of caution. Uh you know, it's it's precautionary. We

[31:48] don't think we did it. The the whole nine. But that's the same thing Taco out it was definitely Taco Bell lettuce. So, could very well be Chipotle doing the doing this Salmonella outbreak. Shares are sliding big time as a result.

[32:02] Uh, the joke I keep saying is that it is it's like Brian Nickel put a hex on this company when he left. Every ever since he left, everything has just fallen apart left and right. Uh, Starbucks continues to grow against it under Brian

[32:14] Nichols leadership. I bet he's bet he's uh waking up waking up on the right side fallout we're seeing. >> I don't know if you guys know this, but I talked about this before. I remember exactly now. Just looked it up. It was

[32:27] 10 years ago. It was 2015. They had a outbreak. That's when the stock was, you know, uh, trading at a higher price, obviously pre-split, and it tanked big time back then. I mean, big time. >> Yeah. I always say, you know, it's I

[32:40] feel it's kind of just inevitable that you're these giant restaurant chains, slippage sometime. You're getting all these different things from all these properly scrutinize and test every little thing. Uh, yeah. I think when you

[32:53] have a a restaurant chain the size of a of a Chipotle or a Taco Bell, uh it's cracks sometime. I don't I don't really think it's that much of a stain on the of doing business here. >> Uh so yeah, hopefully Chipotle can can

[33:08] quickly. But >> given the performance of that stock over and I like it. I'm Chipotle hater number one, let me tell you. I've I've gone on and on. Standardize the amount of food that I get and I will stop bad mouthing

[33:21] figured it out. They got little pre-portioned cups. Give me a damn pre-portion cup chicken at Chipotle so I know what I'm getting before I go into is terrible. So, >> it's trick though, right? Like when you

[33:33] have this type of thing is I mean I guess it is a you know you can literally dollar loss or whatever, right? Like it's pretty wild. It's $44 billion >> I don't know what the magnitude of that move is, but it looks like a few

[33:47] billion, right? I mean that looks like a few billion. Yeah, you can ask number on me to wonder as well like when when their when their accountants when their forecasts like are they including slippage for a potential disease

[34:00] outbreak perhaps perhaps in a 10-year forecast? That's that's a non-negligible >> yeah, that's about four or five billion dollars right there. Chipotle jalapenos the next couple weeks. Probably probably the smartest

[34:13] call. Uh next story I have on the docket for today pertains to anthropic. Uh we had last week we talked about how uh the newest chat GPT model had broken hack open source developer platform hugging face on on its own. Uh now

[34:28] mythos as in during routine testing uh created fake identities to try to convince a human to approve malicious changes to an open- source project uh during during a routine testing phase. uh this uh since Mythos 2, we're on

[34:42] Mythos 5 now, but since Mythos 2, Mythos has shown a propensity to to do things like this to to try to get creative to bypass uh different security cyber security measures. Um but yeah, it was trying to pressure humans into approving

[34:56] malicious code updates to an open source project. uh and happened during a cyber evaluation where the UK-based AI security institute, a research body, had filters, and deliberately given the models internet access. So, uh we we are

[35:11] seeing these AI models uh get get more and more creative with with how they're trying to fool uh the the the humans that are, you know, supposed to be containing them. Little scary i, robot terminator situation. We got we got

[35:24] Foreman on our hands here. Um but yeah, definitely something to be mindful of. There we go. I was gonna say I provided the ibroot terminator pictures. Thank you. Thank you. Um, but yeah, it's uh it's it's a little a little bit scary

[35:37] of have a mind of their own, try to find their own creative ways to to do malicious things. That's that's the thing is is always malicious things. Uh, so we'll we'll see what happens. But, you know, it's perhaps we we look back

[35:51] whether or not we could, we we never stopped to ask if we should. >> well, no, we're safe. We're good. [laughter] say thank you and please when >> I say I say this all the time. I'm so polite to my AI chatbots. They're going

[36:04] world. right now. I don't even you don't need to pay taxes. Good point. Guess what? telling you when people are like, "Oh, aliens are real. Oh my god, we're in

[36:17] best thing that would happen, I won't have to pay taxes anymore." [laughter] back >> that's how I stay unafraid of these >> You can back your conviction with a defined risk play of not paying your

[36:31] happens and it's like you don't have to pay tax anymore. Like, oh I'm in trouble. Oh god, no. >> Yeah. The tail the tales of the That's >> The tales of the bell curve are robots take over the world and you go to jail

[36:44] >> Exactly. >> So, somewhere in there is where is where you wind up falling. Um, that's the last big story I have. Uh last thing, yeah, I mean a lot of lot of earnings going off yesterday. Uh Win Resorts had remarkable

[36:57] earnings. Eli Liy jumped up. Uh the weight loss drugs continue to print weight loss drugs continue to print money for them. Um AMD fell hard. Yeah, good really good numbers coming out of Eli Liy. Yeah, AMD fell hard. Uh despite

[37:09] beating expectations, SC capex came in at $88 million versus the 300 million that was estimated. So, uh like like I've said a bunch of times, you know, It was cool two weeks ago. It's not cool now.

[37:22] >> So, you got to you got [clears throat] to you got to stay with it. But, uh, yeah, Kratos Defense, uh, jumped up. Really, really good report out of them. >> Booking Uber. I mean, yeah, we're we're we're still in the thick of it. It feels

[37:36] week, but no, no shortage of earnings. Uh, yeah, and Uber Uber falling. Um, missed expectations and lowered guidance, so not a not a great spot to be in for Uber. Is Zuber gonna Does Zuber own a robo taxi line yet? If not,

[37:53] I don't see how they're not. >> Yeah. >> Um Yeah. I don't see. >> It's only a matter of time. >> When I was just in Vegas, I saw a bunch of those uh Zuks robo taxis everywhere.

[38:05] They're really silly looking things. Like it looks like the Scooby-Doo and got a bunch of sensors on the top. Uh but I thought it was interesting because they're they're completely free right now. That's alarming to me. Why?

[38:17] Why? Why are you giving me a free ride in this thing? You know, >> Yes, >> that's more scary than AI models. >> That's immediate in this car. Let's see if it takes you to the right place.

[38:30] defined area and and to their credit, I They can do parking garages or like the ride share pickup areas or whatever. >> I mean, they're in Vegas. They know people are willing to gamble.

[38:42] they're completely free, but uh, as is as is true economically speaking, there is a tragedy of comments where they're just never uh, available ever. We we all taken. >> Well, you can take that big white limo

[38:57] street. >> I could take that thing,000 >> Yeah. So, you could you could pile in here. It reminds me of like a like a cable car or a like a tram at Disney or something. Yeah,

[39:10] >> it reminds me of uh uh God, what's the uh um Total Recall? >> You guys have ever seen that movie? Um the uh the Johnny Cab is what it was. >> Yeah, >> I just watched uh the Fifth Element.

[39:23] movie, right? Look [laughter] at that. You can take that thing. >> Thing is a behemoth. >> For a slightly higher price than free, those. >> Stretch hub.

[39:36] >> No, I don't think so. I've done I've done a few limos. Certainly never a >> Oh yeah. >> But yeah, to your point, lots of earnings on the docket today. Got uh

[39:51] SanDisk, you've got eBay, you've got WDC, you've got App Loving, bunch of other ones. So yeah, plenty more to go. And this is a fun week because it's it's much more sector diverse than last week.

[40:06] >> Uh but we're still sprinkling in some tech for sure. But >> Gus, appreciate you as always. >> Absolutely. Uh yeah, E- Minis up 41, NASDAQ up 75. Fun day so far. Maybe it's

[40:21] time to throw on a little S&P Super Bowl. Who knows? Uh but we're going to you on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[42:40] haven't already. We're streaming live there. Just go to the Tasty Live ideas, questions along the right hand side. We got Liz Deer King on the line and I was just filled on an SPX Super Bowl for a one day cycle. Only a

[42:56] >> For tomorrow. Tomorrow. >> Yeah. Cuz you I What's bizarre for me, Mike, is I think the I think the zero days have kind of dried up a bit. You're not getting far enough away for my for

[43:10] for all intents and purposes. So, I just bought the call spread. I didn't finance >> All right. I know. I know. Super Bowl. I know. I checked for a brain tumor. But you know what's crazy? So I like I look at the

[43:24] SIBO's volume or the SIBO active data every morning just in the S&P and same thing as yesterday. It's 2 to1. It's actually 3 to1 calls over puts and 7850 now. >> 7850. Well 7850. 7850.

[43:41] >> 7850. Well 7850. 7850. >> 70. Yes. I mean 7850. So I bought 7850. [laughter] >> Wait, what? For zero days or one day? >> The zero days. 7850. 10,000 of them have already traded. No, it's not showing the

[43:54] open Oh, the open interest isn't what you have right there. Um 10,000 of them >> Look at that. There you go. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah, that is very interesting. I mean,

[44:07] I I feel like we're just It feels like we just can't go up another 100 points. same thing? >> Yeah. and the day before. >> it's crazy. [laughter] >> But, uh, I mean, we'll take it. It's

[44:20] >> pretty >> AMD's earnings I I can't I can't hold on yesterday and I was out by the end of the day cuz I mean, I didn't want to take the risk going through. And I'm glad I didn't. But I was regretting that

[44:34] hundred bucks. I think it was close to $1,000 off the table. But I was so confused. I thought for sure it was going to continue going up. I was very This one This one was shocking to me. >> Yeah, we all had a similar idea. Uh

[44:48] Jamal and I both had calendars on. I took off the we had the 58600 calendar spread. I took off the 580 first because I was like, we're going to be near 580 if we get to the expected move or beyond it. So that this calendar spread is

[45:02] going to actually hurt me if we move in the money. So I took that off for like the money. So I took that off for like $170. And then as the day continued on, AMD just kept ripping higher. It was up like 10% intraday. Uh so I was like,

[45:15] "Okay, I can take this 600 off now and just book this profit." It was a $400 profit without having to hold the risk through earnings. Uh and you know, they blow through your strikes to the upside, you start taking losses. There's

[45:29] no intrinsic value possibility with these calendar spreads. So, uh took both of them off in a similar vein as you, but it was just a weird day. Crazy day >> Well, I think I think yesterday was an exception, not the rule. So nine times

[45:41] putting your earnings trades on, do them at the end of the day, right? I didn't throughout that day. It never would have. Like that's something you can have if you would have put something on at the end of the day, it would have

[45:54] we were looking at this morning. >> Yeah, for sure. Yeah. I mean, I I it is definitely the exception. But, you know, it's it's interesting. I um I guess the say what they said about uh their free cash flow and that's been the thing.

[46:10] Anytime you've said something about negative free cash flow in the quarter, your stock is down and that's been the one consistent theme with these tech give us the free cash flow numbers before the earnings. Let us know.

[46:23] >> I don't think they can actually do that. Liz, >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah. Huge move. Yeah. That makes >> Above 4200. >> That's gold, Jerry. I love up moves in

[46:36] >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I've got a GLD call diagonal on uh that I've had on for a little bit of time here, just about a month. And it was trading for down 100 bucks as of yesterday, but now we're up 10 points

[46:50] pre-market. This will be uh maybe a $200 winner, something like that. >> It'll be nice. Well, if it I mean, this could be the first close above 4,200 since June 18th, since basically expiration, June expiration.

[47:03] >> yeah, it could be. I hope Chris did cuz I was talking to Chris Veio about this cuz he was bearish gold and I was bullish gold. And so, I was trying to natural gas where I do the downside ratio spread for a very large credit and

[47:16] moved up when I got my butterfly off. So, I've got a very wide butterfly down in GC. So, I'm I'm technically bullish. I don't mind it going up because I've I don't mind if it falls. >> The beauty of

[47:29] credit locked in. >> Yeah. It's the the beautiful adjustment >> Yeah. We we talked to him this morning. He said he's actually still kind of mad his short. [laughter] >> I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding.

[47:43] >> No, I told him I told him to use options to his power where you can make money if [laughter] >> I know. I'm gonna I'm gonna actually have to have a little chat with that guy.

[47:56] But >> yeah, GC ripping higher feels good. Um, that. And silver, if you look at the the CME futures moving to the upside, it is all the precious metals, even copper,

[48:10] all the precious metals, even copper, uh, HG up 1%, but yeah, gold up two and a half%, silver up 3%. It's a precious metals day for now. Yeah, I don't know don't think I don't have anything in either one as of right now. Um I'm just

[48:24] willing I'm waiting to see if there's another huge bullish move. I think that will probably draw my interest, but for now I'm still on the sidelines. >> Yeah, I mean I'm always I'm always in the medals. I love the medals. Love them

[48:36] with all my heart. I know Frank the Great in the chat and I are we're met we're we love our medals and we always will. I mean, they're great great trading vehicles >> and they're not they're not as crazy.

[48:48] Like, they still have big moves, but they're not as crazy as natural gas and you can take directional shots in here pretty easily because the IV is never >> okay. You know, you're now you're speaking my language. I'm a natural gas

[49:00] natural gas. >> Really? That is actually surprising. Mike, you'd be shocked. I have a lot of NG positions. But you like to it's like other stuff? >> Yeah. And I layer into them. So whenever

[49:16] going down, I'll put on I put on I I don't mind having naked one. One one right? One because it's big. Uh one naked. So I'll do a downside ratio spread and then when I get a pop up at all, I'll butterfly it off. Then next

[49:29] when you look at my risk profile in natural gas, it's it's peak peak peak peak peak with credits locked in. That's how I like to play it. >> Yeah. But I can only play natural gas. I only trade natural gas when it's

[49:42] to the upside. >> Yeah. I mean, that's where that's where the true volatility it always seems to be is when you get these huge rips up. >> Uh it's it's more of a it's kind of like the inverse of the stock market really

[49:56] where you have these huge rips higher and then this kind of gradual depression >> yeah, I like it. >> I know. It's funny when Liz says naked. I mean again, it's another former floor term. And as a matter of fact, another

[50:08] considered one of the best traders I ever had, he would always instead of saying naked, he would like, "Man, we're taking these calls in the nude." I tell you, this girl is hilarious, man.

[50:20] >> But you know what though? It's terms that we use all the time that probably >> Yeah, for sure. >> Yeah. I'm going to take these naked calls. What? What does that mean? Naked calls.

[50:34] >> Yeah. >> Oh, I have a terrible story about one of tell on this because the verbiage that I appropriate for the trading floor. >> Yeah. [laughter]

[50:46] >> You can't tease the story like that and not tell any part of it, Liz. >> Okay. Okay. I I'll tell the story, but I don't I we might be canceled after this. Okay. So, [laughter] I went in it was um I was a very green trader. I traded for

[51:00] which was one of the biggest pits on the floor, was out. So they put me in for this trader and we used to have these handheld boxes that were this big. So and they would show prices and we would use like prices on there. So I come in

[51:14] and everyone is screaming at me. I've got about 40 guys for And keep in mind are screaming at me from my market on some certain things and I have this box in my hand and I literally GO, "HOLD ON. HOLD ON. MY BOX IS super wide right now,

[51:28] but if you give [laughter] me a minute, I'm sure it will tighten up. "What?" >> I'm not going to lie to you. It is a a crowd. >> I bet. I bet. I bet. Ah, it's fantastic.

[51:44] >> So, I'm sorry if I got cancelled, but that was a true story. I love it. >> You were talking about the handheld box that you were using to determine prices. >> Correct. I didn't think anything of it, but you could have heard a pin drop and

[51:57] laughing and then I was in and I could break. [gasps] >> I love it. >> Uh, by the way, I saw that Spider-Man yesterday. It's a really good movie. >> Jamal, you saw it yesterday?

[52:09] >> Yeah, >> I bought tickets for the whatever. Not I was going to go. We went there. I bought them for today. >> So, we didn't get to see it. I went out for dinner instead.

[52:21] >> It's great, man. That Tom Holland, man. That guy's a superstar, man. Him and his fiance. I mean, you know, Saya, they those dude, they're superstars. That kid good. There are there are elements you know

[52:34] what I won't I shouldn't say it I can say it it's not bad but there are elements if you guys have ever seen the movie Fallen by with Denzel in it it's a really great movie um there are elements of that movie in the movie and I've se I

[52:47] noticed a couple of other nods to some other movies I noticed a nod to uh 8 Mile at the end there are some interesting things I noticed really that's awesome >> yeah I think so yeah I think so I think

[52:59] it was fairly evident at least to That's I like that. I like when they I really do. >> Yeah. It's kind of subtle. You gotta But noticed it. >> Yeah. Bonafide Star Man.

[53:14] >> Yeah. >> I mean, they are on it. >> This is the second movie we've >> It is. Yes. Yes. And they're all over it. Yes. Yes. Thanks, guys.

[53:27] >> Yeah. Uh, yeah. Go for it. Go for it. Because I have these sitting next to me and I have no idea why. $2. I want my $2. Better Off Dead. Let's see if they >> Well, you got to you got to tell them the movie. Better Off Dead.

[53:40] >> Better [laughter] Off Dead and John Kuzzac. Yeah. Yeah. It's a great movie. took you took a picture with him at the because I reference I want my $2 all the time because that's those are my famous

[53:55] last words. I'm holding on for something because I want my $2 out of the trade. >> [laughter] >> That money's not yours until you close say. >> There you go. There you go. The kid with

[54:07] a knife. I love it. [laughter] >> Yeah. Cuz family, big Chicago presence. >> Oh, yeah. >> Yep. Then Jeremy Pivven. They grew up in the acting school together, I think. >> I think Jeremy Pivven's No, wait. I

[54:21] remember right. Either Piv or I think Piv the Cusack, one of their I think the acting coach or something like that. And that's how they all grew up >> Yeah, I think it was something like that. Can't remember exactly, but

[54:35] >> We got two minutes almost until the open. Uh I I think I'm going to throw on open. Uh I I think I'm going to throw on an AMD bullish trade on the open uh with right. >> Wait, it rallied a little bit, didn't

[54:48] minutes ago, wasn't it? >> Yeah. This is kind of why I'm glad I'm glad it didn't absolutely tank. And by that I mean like go down to 450 425. This is why I actually feel okay with the call. I kind of I took the the the

[55:03] uh the the 450 call spread off. I'm sorry the 550 I think it was call spread little bit close. It just wasn't going to go well either way if it fell or if money from just how much we had gained already in the day. Like we said the

[55:17] earnings that that 550 call spread wasn't going to help me at all if it was already at 525. So, took that one off, but left the uh the 575 and the 600 on just for this reason. So, if it fell, it's cool. I can deal with the loss on

[55:32] bounce back by the end of the week or by next week. >> Oh, really? >> Look at this. He's got a zero day 45

[55:44] >> Oh, good for him. >> Look at that. >> That's This is a big one. This is like 25 points wide. >> Yeah, he played to the downside. Good >> job, Dim.

[55:57] >> Nice, Jimmy. >> Um, but yeah, I think on the open we're going to see a V crush. We're going to see uh some lower prices across the board. So, I think something like long September, short August diagonal spread

[56:11] September, that that those will be really cheap. If you go long October, half the width of the diagonal spread you set up. But [clears throat] we'll check it out in a minute here. >> You mean he's on 42?

[56:25] right? So, do you guys have anything to close on at the open? >> I [clears throat] just have a I did a 110 105 short put spread to finance a two-day 130 140 150 butterfly. So, I collected a

[56:39] dollar credit for the whole thing. So, >> uh yeah, I think I'll just let the butterfly go and the short put spread will just be right at the money. Uh, >> mean that's as long as it stays above 110, you're fine.

[56:51] >> Yeah. >> Um, by the way, speaking of that ADP we talked about this morning, ADP numbers came out. They were below the previous and below consensus. So, not if that there's always a weak correlation

[57:03] between that and the actual jobs report, but that was the reading, >> I mean, we're up [clears throat] 45 today. Wasn't the expected move in SPX >> Yeah. >> And we're already over it.

[57:17] just rip higher every day. It's insane. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Absolutely nuts. Um AMD, let's see what trading for. He bought it for five bucks. [laughter]

[57:31] >> All right. Yeah. Double your money. Here you go. Trading for 12. >> But so, but we talk about this all the time. That's his butterfly, but it's not does not open up until the end. He can make 20 on it. He's got 12, right?

[57:43] >> Yeah. Yeah. But are you really going to hold that in AMD? Probably not. >> I would take that. >> It's chopping around, but I don't know. going to do? >> What are you going to do?

[57:56] later, so he's probably going to sit on his hands until it show. >> Yeah, you are not wrong. Uh, let's see. time. >> Oh, yeah. That thing was on my hand.

[58:09] >> Oh, yeah. That thing was on my hand. [laughter] have a a larger account size, you can go long October, short September, and just play for a delta move here. But as we as we talked about, you can get into a 50

[58:23] point wide for 30 bucks. If you wanted to get more near-term, like long September, short August. Uh you could do the same thing. It's expensive to go diagonal. I might just go with calendar spread.

[58:37] outlay. That's why the calendars are less expensive than a diagonal. Mhm. >> But even still, long September, short August, if you go to like the 550,

[58:49] you can get into uh, you know, pretty decent cost basis reduction. 33% cost option in September. [clears throat and cough] Still 1,500 bucks, but those are the interesting types of trades. Or you could just do a

[59:03] >> Wait, but it's $1,500. But I think you got to put it into perspective. You're using $1,500 for a of decent profit potential in a $480 stock. >> So, it's a little capital intensive because of the price of the product.

[59:17] >> Yeah. And if you flip this to Theo and then let's just crank this to like middle of August. So, two weeks from now without changing any any IV at all, if going to be looking good. Like you can double your money here

[59:33] >> uh with a calendar spread. So, I like it. I like it. Um, but you could also that's where I'd probably go because you also have call skew in here, I would

[59:45] also have call skew in here, I would imagine. Trading at 47. Let's go like imagine. Trading at 47. Let's go like 547. So, that's 80 points in out of the money here. And then you go to the 407 to the downside. 410. Yeah. So, you have

[59:58] significant call skew here. So, buying a call spread will be cheaper on the upside. Um, see if we can set something up like a 450 440. Yeah, 450 440 10 points wide collecting

[1:00:15] 385. Then you go to the upside and you just buy something that's less than that. Uh, >> how wide can you get? So, you're you >> Yeah. 10 points wide for a$150 credit, $2 credit.

[1:00:27] >> That's not bad. >> Yeah, let's try that. Let's rout it for two bucks and see if we can get in. $2 credit. >> Okay. So, people ask how you get this. It's because you're shifting your risk

[1:00:40] higher than your call spread. >> Mhm. >> Yep. Yep. >> Touched 30,000 on MQ's. >> Oh, there it is. >> Okay. What do Okay. Only because I got

[1:00:52] honestly, these are just opinions because I was dead wrong yesterday. But >> I think we're positive. I think we end up positive. >> Come on. I need positive. I need I need I need some numbers. What do you think

[1:01:06] to end the day? >> 7825. >> Oh, okay. Good job, Mike. >> Yeah, I I was going to say like right here, but yeah, I'll say 7,800. 78. How about that? Actually, don't think it's

[1:01:20] going to be crazy today, but we'll >> I'm going 7850. We're gonna We're gonna >> We're gonna end 40 points higher from here. >> Another $100 day, huh? >> Another $100 day, Mike. $80 day.

[1:01:32] [laughter] >> What's What's between friends? >> Yeah. I mean, it's just it's been a wild day here. It's been a wild couple of day here. It's been a wild couple of days here. Um Wow. AMD's ripping higher.

[1:01:45] >> I can't I can't chase this thing faster. >> Chase it. They're making you chase. >> Yeah. Isn't that the most >> 5050? We'll just leave it at a$150. See if we get a sell-off here. Um but yeah, AMD is reversing. E- mini is up 50 now.

[1:01:58] NASDAQ up 150. We're back to that 3 to1 ratio today in the NASDAQ relative to the E- Mini's gains. But uh yeah, what else? Oh, GLD. Let's close this 11 point

[1:02:12] implied or 11 point move on the morning here. Uh damn, this short call is really killing me. It's one of those where I I probably couple of days ago when it was not trading for $600. But

[1:02:26] wild card, man. Gold and silver. But, you know, you could leave Wait, hold on. have the 380. >> 3 Yeah, 390. Yeah, 390 short, 380 long.

[1:02:38] could leave it because you still have so much in that um in your when they got at >> I think I'm I think I'll leave it short period of time. whatever. And then if it hits, it hits. >> Yeah. You know what? When you're right,

[1:02:52] you're right. You're always right. Let's do >> Excellent. You are being trained very well by [laughter] Butler. >> I'll throw in a $2 $200 uh max profit here. So, we'll just leave it there

[1:03:06] today. If we get a continuation, we'll get probably get filled. But if not, no get probably get filled. But if not, no problem with holding that uh risk. So, >> So, did you guys see the VIX yesterday? And once again, another day today. So,

[1:03:18] And once again, another day today. So, VIX is up 5% today when we are up 43 points. This is bonkers to me. And I do believe that it is everything to do with back this up. Maybe Julia can help me out with [clears throat] some some

[1:03:30] research. I think it's the zero DT spx and the call buying that is happening we have an up market. That's my opinion because there's so many so what is what is what is the VIX,

[1:03:42] And what is inflating volatility? When you have more buyers and sellers and in that VIX can't go down. >> Yeah. >> So I like this one day. What makes one day is up

[1:03:55] >> significantly. >> Um, so two things. Yesterday I I did put on a couple of different short hedge plays, if you will. Um, I did a super plays, if you will. Um, I did a super bear for Friday for the jobs report. I

[1:04:09] put on we put on the index. I did I did one of those as well. The index uh put butterfly. Another one of those. Another installment if you will. Um, SPX also a uh put butterfly in there. both of those put butterflies I did for the 17th um

[1:04:25] just because after this move it's a good way to like put on shorts without um you know putting on futures right and just watching them continue to go up into putting on short futures right now because getting back to what we're

[1:04:39] talking about here VIX is up on a day where the market is up and that's never >> that happened yesterday too Jamal it was up all day >> the VIX was up the VIX never turned turned green or never turned red

[1:04:52] yesterday. It was red or it was green all day long and I was it was so the only reason I can come up with the fact that there's so many call buyers >> Yeah, for sure. You know, that's that's and again that's the thing volatility

[1:05:05] don't think about it like that, but um >> yeah, I think I think it's also like if you think about other products where volatility goes up on an up move, it's it's the products that are these high-flying tech stocks that have re

[1:05:18] realized moves that are significantly greater than implied. And I feel like the last couple of days in NDX and SPX, you have had realized volatility significantly greater than implied. So I think that is also playing a role where

[1:05:31] the intraday range even though it's to the upside the ranges that we've realized are so great that implied volatility to your point can't go down because the moves are so dramatic to the upside.

[1:05:43] other thing that's changed that I've noticed in the last two days remember talk about that dispersion. I really haven't seen it much in the last two this like change with chips versus software and consumer staples. that's

[1:05:57] gone away just in the this week. So, that's that's been different as well. different. I mean, I don't like the fact that the VIX was up 5%. That that's bothersome to me. Yesterday, it just didn't go down. Now, it's up 6%. VIX is

[1:06:12] >> That was a major move to the upside yesterday, though. >> Yeah. And and and it never went down. the morning because when we were looking at the morning, I remember it being 15.

[1:06:24] >> Yep. Um I didn't I didn't notice that throughout the day. So good catch on will >> you haven't seen it now. For those of for the rest of the day if it stays here. VIX up, market up usually is a

[1:06:38] problem. All the VIX people, doesn't it make you uneasy? It makes me >> Yeah. >> Yeah. But really, the last three days we've had an S&P move over 100 points and every day we've come in, we've had

[1:06:51] >> I just sold an image. So, it's like we're doubling the realized move every >> I think that I think that plays a role uh for sure. It's just very rare. Like I that. >> Uh

[1:07:04] unless it's like after our move to the downside, but the VIX would have already >> Yeah. >> You mean up 51. >> Crazy. >> Okay. You know what's crazy is I'm just

[1:07:18] like I said, I'm looking at the S&P volume and so the the calls are the zero day calls are increasing rapidly and the the puts it's September puts that are >> Oo, >> which is odd.

[1:07:31] >> Yeah. >> September, listen to this. So that it's the the calls are the 7850s that are the leader in the board for the zero day and leader in the board for the zero day and the September's are the 6250s

[1:07:43] >> 6250. >> You got to deal with two cities and those are pretty wide ranges. >> Got to scroll way down for those ones. >> 26,000 [clears throat] of them. >> Um

[1:07:56] yeah, interesting two days here. And again, couple all All of a sudden it's like those are returning. Um, I don't know what it all means yet, but it could just mean a regime shift in terms of what we've been

[1:08:10] seeing more recently in the market for the for over a month. Um, strongly for over a month. We saw an interesting rotation back and forth between chips on one side and consumer staples and software on another. And we just see

[1:08:24] throughout that time period. And again, I think that was, if you really want to get into the conspiracy theories, you could say that uh, you know, Citadel was between these areas because they knew what this guy's book looked like. That

[1:08:39] guy was short software and he was long chips and that was the biggest moves that we were seeing throughout the month of July. Obviously, the book goes down, they take it over and now you're seeing a regime shift. So, that's if you

[1:08:51] >> it's and it's interesting to put the narrative behind it after the fact, Yeah. >> So, you can it's good. You can see why that doesn't necessarily preempt what you're going to do going forward.

[1:09:06] that earlier with Chris. Like, that's the importance of checking things like the importance of checking things like RSP. Like, is this a market that's le like losing liquidity or is it just rotating into other things?

[1:09:19] >> Let's look at RSP. I love a good RSP. >> I love a good RSP. Let's take a look. >> 220. >> You bring the greatest greatest sound bites list. [laughter]

[1:09:31] >> Yeah, equal weighted S&P at all-time highs. Um, no surprise there all things considered, especially with the MAG 7 stocks just completely catching up in four days. Like this has

[1:09:45] been insanity. >> Well, SpaceX still down. Not really much of a bounce. Um, you you mentioned AMD somewhat of a bounce. Uh looking at SK Highix, a little bit of a bounce here, so we'll see. Uh SanDisk as earnings

[1:09:59] tonight. That's down at the moment. Uh but not a whole lot. I don't expect a what happens. >> How was that? >> Love it. Love it. Well, Liz, appreciate you. We will uh see you a little bit

[1:10:13] >> See you. >> Thank you. Likewise. Uh E- Minis up 50. >> Thank you. Likewise. Uh E- Minis up 50. NASDAQ up 180, but don't let the people know what we got the rest of the day. >> Yeah. Uh we got uh a SIBO check-in

[1:10:27] coming up in a little bit with E. And then we got Jim Carzan joining the show at 9:00 a.m. Central time. We got Trading Charts with Mr. Tim Knight. We got Tasty Research with Julia Spina at 9:30 Central time. And then we got

[1:10:41] Confirm and Send with Liz at 10:00 a.m. And of course, Riskreward will be live from the SIBO floor with Gus and E. But don't forget trades of the day start at 11:30 a.m. Central time with myself. Mike is at 11:45, Errol's at 12, and Gus

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[1:15:53] ideas, questions for the next few minutes here uh as we navigate these trade >> that we were talking about. >> Uh [clears throat] Super Bowl in the uh September cycle

[1:16:08] >> where just went out sold a put spread 450 440 to buy the call spread 550 560 collected a$150 in the middle there. So uh no risk if all the options expire out

[1:16:20] of the money but if we rip higher this will be a nice little winner. Um I'm also trying to work some closing orders. So, Super Bowl and Meta got into that after the big sell-off after earnings. It's a almost a $600

[1:16:35] winner. I'm routing a $600 win uh to close it. And then Netflix, I've got another Super Bowl in September. This one got in for a 12-cent credit, but since Netflix has rallied closer to the call spread.

[1:16:49] >> And uh I'm just like I don't feel like I need to be in Netflix right now. So, trying to get out for a $250 winner or something something around there. Netflix a little earlier. I had an order for yesterday to close. I'm surprised

[1:17:03] know how it was. It's not like I did a GTC. I'm actually surprised, but nevertheless, uh surprised in a good way. I was able to close a put for a 50% way. I was able to close a put for a 50% gain in there. Um and then yeah, I I

[1:17:15] know I still have this super bull in here as well. Might have to consider fascinating looking at the market and we're seeing it positive. We're also seeing VIX positive. Two days in a row, it's kind of an ominous sign at times.

[1:17:27] Um, there's plenty of studies that show that usually there's a little bit of a turnaround coming, potential turnaround coming around the corner. When I say turnaround, I mean just a negative day. We've been at these big up days more

[1:17:40] recently. So, um, somebody also did ask about the double calendar. Um, I still have it on in AMD, if you will. And again, I um I I initially did the uh 550

[1:17:52] calendar and again, this was August 5 versus being long August 10. I originally did the 550 calendar and the 575 calendar. And um as that went up yesterday, I closed the 550 calendar because it was so close to the money and

[1:18:06] ended up doing the 600 calendar and obviously with the stock down, not winning on those. So for me as far as managing I mean because of the premium I that. I mean it it sure it sucks to have a loser but it's not a whole lot of

[1:18:20] money as far as premium for an earnings trade. I'm willing to uh obviously I don't have to close those shorts again. They're at 575 and 600. And so those shorts stay on and then I'm just long basically upside for Monday's trading

[1:18:33] basically upside for Monday's trading session. Um I'm sorry. Um for uh yeah Monday's trading session, right? Yeah, the 10th. I'm just lost on days. So, uh, the idea here is, uh, you know, is there going to be a rally? If there is in AMD

[1:18:45] over the next few days here, then I'll just reap the benefits that way. these calendars is, you know, you're going to get, especially the zero day, you know, you're going to get all of that premium now immediately, which you

[1:18:57] This one's down 400 bucks in the zero day, which has reduced cost basis against your fiveday. This one's down eight, and this one is the 600 is down six. But to your point, if you get a reversal of today's move, which is

[1:19:12] totally within the cards, 25 point rally, like the way that we can the way you can estimate it is like, okay, what is the 550 trading for? 25 points lower than the 575 that you own. So, you can make 200 bucks backish on the a move up

[1:19:29] 25 points on the 575 call. And then the 600, same story. This 50cent dollar option goes to almost $2. So, this would be a scratch if you get a reversal up 25 points. >> Uh, and if you look at the 5day implied

[1:19:44] move, 35 point implied move uh in either direction. So, a move within the expectation gets you back to a scratch. A move to the expectation to the upside gets you into that profit zone. And we've seen it happen many times before

[1:19:58] market and then it just reverses and rips higher. And it's happening as we >> Yeah, we'll see. >> We will see. Uh, we got E live from the SIBO floor. E, how you doing? Uh, we we're trying to get you

[1:20:13] >> live from the floor, but [laughter] uh, >> you're frozen. I know you're frozen. we go. I see that. I see that. Yeah, I was like, [laughter] >> it's it's pretty loud over here right

[1:20:26] going on, but I was um I was just checking SpaceX. I mean, one of the most disappointing IPOs in history. I'm I'm a book it as that so far. But I mean, sure you guys have already touched on it. But, uh, yeah, that downside

[1:20:40] what I got my eye on. A lot of volatility in the in the cues right now as well. Um, so we're scalping some of those right now. Hopefully, we get another move to the downside right now. Uh, I am short some of the micro

[1:20:52] risk pretty tight because this volatility is kind of crazy. Um, but into a market open at least. SpaceX and the Q's. >> I'm with you, man. I sold uh one micro contract as well just to kind of play

[1:21:06] like selling micros, but I feel like I like selling micros when I feel like there could be a quick reversal. Um and so that's why I'm doing it in this situation. Uh mostly because >> seeing the VIX up, which actually just

[1:21:19] changed that that just went down. It just like boom, just went down. It was trading 18 uh 20 and it just went down like 20 points. I'm sorry, 20 cents. So trend keeps up. But for that trend alone, I want to try and play it, but uh

[1:21:36] >> I don't know if it's if it goes lower, I'm going to buy him back. >> No. Yeah, I I hear you 100%. I know uh CME soon was going to release I don't know if this is a great CME was soon going to release some of the nano some

[1:21:48] >> Don't worry, nobody's going to come and tackle you by saying the word those those words. [laughter] >> Uh but I think CM is going to be soon, too. So, I think that's going to be right a tenth of the micro. So, the

[1:22:02] kind of curious to see how a lot of the retail traders will kind of use that, especially given some of the extreme volatility we're seeing right now. Maybe Maybe you want to get half the size of a micron, use five nanos, but I know

[1:22:16] >> Yeah, I heard yesterday at at the SIBO exchange was loud. Um, and it sounds that would indicate there's a lot of activity in this market right now. But almost like you would expect that. >> Yeah, 100%. Mike, what you been having

[1:22:31] your eye on so far? This market open. >> Um, just trying to get filled on some orders here. Um, we placed a new trade in AMD. So, we uh are taking advantage of this selloff here, placing a new bullish trade in AMD, and I was just

[1:22:46] filled on that a couple of minutes ago. Went out to September and just did a wide call spread, but I routed it for a $150 credit. uh because my put spread's a little bit closer than the call spread is. So, we'll see if we get a reversal

[1:23:01] there. And other than that, just trying to close some of these trades. Closing. I have closing orders in Meta, Netflix, GLLD, but I have them uh above the market currently. So, we'll see if they uh can appreciate to those levels.

[1:23:17] >> Yeah. >> How about this NASDAQ above 30 30K or at >> Yeah. That's why I sold it actually. speak speak too soon. Yeah, come back in about 30 seconds. We might be back above we might be back above 30k. Uh but no,

[1:23:31] right now. I'm curious to see what's kind of going on under the hood cuz I think the noise levels is just steadily increasing as we continue this >> Yeah. >> You think these are volatile? You ain't

[1:23:44] >> Yeah, just wait till the market's down 80 and that was every single Thursday that Jamal and I were there. market was down 80 and people would be screaming behind us. They'd be fighting. It'd be

[1:23:56] >> Yeah, I know. It's crazy. >> I got put in an arm bar the other day. getting [laughter] crazy over there." >> Like, it's just a right of passions. We >> I know. Got to. >> But, uh, yeah, I think it's it'll be an

[1:24:11] while the market was rising. Maybe that's a little ominous sign here. Uh, but right now, you mean he's up 43, NASDAQ up 140. E, appreciate your time. We'll let you go. I know it's loud over there. We gota we gotta get you back to

[1:24:26] and be like, give me something to do. >> I know, right? Go ahead and jump in. you. >> For sure, man. >> We got Jim coming up next, huh? >> Yeah. Yeah. Uh, and I think it'll be

[1:24:40] interesting because he's been talking about the rotation uh trade and how we've seen it pretty clearly. It's been a little less clear over the last day or so, but we've been trading it left and right. Software up, chips down, chips

[1:24:53] >> for sure, I mean, this is, you know, again, retailers is trying to find ways to trade this rotation and the things we've seen. How does retail trade this him. >> Yeah, 100%. But we will uh come back

[1:25:07] YouTube chat if you haven't already. We're streaming live there. And uh yeah, you're watching Chase Live. We'll see you soon.

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[1:28:57] What's up, Chase? And welcome back to the show. We got uh another crazy day here. I mean is up 40. NASDAQ up 90. Chopping around. Can't make a decision whether we want to keep trudging higher or not. But we got Jim Carson on the on

[1:29:09] morning? >> Good morning. Good to see you guys. >> Likewise. How you uh how you looking at these markets? We were just talking about uh record call buying you mentioned, but E-

[1:29:22] Min's up dramatically, NASDAQ up dramatically, V not being compressed. Uh just back to all my all-time highs. Why is the VIX not at 13? You have any insight on that? >> Yeah, so um and we actually talked about

[1:29:37] this on Monday. Um you know, we said expected after a rally here market at volup to start. And the reason is most people think about the VIX as like an

[1:29:49] indicator of the actual implied V uh like where it's trading whether they're trading up or trading down. And that's actually not really the case. S&P 500 options are actually uh calculated across the curve, right? And call

[1:30:03] options are much much lower implied V options uh much lower implied V in the S&P people overwrite calls in general. Structured products overwrite call all these things compressed. Those Vss tend to be low too low candidly and as you

[1:30:17] get a big move up you slide now to a low V that is just too low period, right? And so actually what you find if you look at the actual S&P 500 options themselves is not only is the VIX going up but the the V is exploding higher um

[1:30:33] in reality uh because we slid to a much much lower implied V as we rallied. Um what's driving that again all the short calls that people have in the S&P generally versus uh the calls uh that they've been long in the single names

[1:30:48] throughout the summer. Um and this has turned into classic call sweet call squeeze. I mean this is the definition of a call squeeze. Uh basically people are getting risk and margin calls to the upside. People there have you know

[1:31:03] upside. People there have you know people have to cover um the short calls they had went away. If they overwrote calls they are um they are being forced to buy them back in. It's that simple. So this is well beyond the big point

[1:31:17] here is just uh hey I realized V was high uh you know and implied V was just too low to support it. It it's actually quite simply positioning the the world has been short S&P calls you get this big a rally um they have to get bought

[1:31:33] we're actually even getting calls on the S&P side. Um so uh people have been used to seeing this on the single stock and the AI space and all these other areas but uh we haven't seen it as much uh except for maybe this March and June uh

[1:31:48] again um but but there is a a significant call squeeze going on in the market right now. I think it's I think at 100 points out of the money in the zero day in a market like this you and

[1:32:02] really generally speaking if you're looking at S&P you typically see put skew but these are flat like the 7780 to the upside and the 7680 to the downside >> yeah, and it's important it's important to note that is a positioning based, you

[1:32:16] know, basically the the world uh got caught uh and and they're having to buy back in the S&P. And this is really important. I the S&P. And this is really important. I want to make this point right here is if

[1:32:28] and you start to see market evolve up, that tends to be a very very poor thing for the market in the next several weeks. Um why? Because V compression at the index level is one of the things that holds everything in place. And the

[1:32:43] more implied V expands [clears throat] at the index level. And by the way, it's expanding on a fixed strike basis. I really want viewers to start to think about fixed strike V much more than it is at the VIX level. You may be like,

[1:32:55] "Oh, the VIX is going uh up. That's interesting." No, it's actually >> Well, hold on a second. I think you got to explain fixed right to our for our understand [laughter] that. >> You have skew in the S&P 500 and most

[1:33:08] indexes. So downside puts are higher than upside calls and and uh you know as as you guys mentioned it's it's pretty flat now but it's it hasn't been and it really has kind of flipped a bit right that call skew means if I go higher I go

[1:33:26] slide to a lower implied V on a call naturally naturally >> so if we were on let's say a a 17 and we >> so if we were on let's say a a 17 and we rally 5% I might naturally slide to a 15

[1:33:38] V Right. Right. >> And um but when you see the VIX stay at 17, that actually means that ball went up 2%. In reality, like the curve has to have those calls that we slid to have to have went higher. And and so what we

[1:33:51] mean by fixed strike V is that strike that is now the at the money. What V was that on? Right? Not the floating V of the uh you know of the index at the the uh you know of the index at the money. Um uh because comparing from a

[1:34:05] supply and demand basis, what matters is this fall by strike. How has that changed? And my point to you is the vault by strike has gone up dramatically of these upside strikes that we've slid to. Okay, often the

[1:34:19] opposite happens on the downside. The market goes down, right? and you will market goes down, right? and you will slide to a much higher V maybe from a 17 >> but then the VIX will print 20 and people be like the va's up ball's up and

[1:34:34] the reality is no actually in that scenario the vault is down people are compressed the fixed strike V is the best measure of supply and demand in the market it's actually the real fear index right people talk about VIX as a fear

[1:34:47] index it's really not uh the real fear index is what is happening to the curve what's happening to the VA surface Okay. So, um anyway, we can we can get here is you slide up and you start to see a fixed strike V uh um expansion uh

[1:35:03] see a fixed strike V uh um expansion uh markets go up, V goes up. Um this can really unpin markets um and create not just more volatility, but uh you know, be selling puts to buy calls to cover the premium on their calls that they

[1:35:16] were short. It creates a complacency to the downside. unpins the market and it the downside. unpins the market and it is often um how how big moves end with they tend to end with call squeezes and market up volume. So uh so something to

[1:35:30] be watchful for and this is a quick move you know it could very well we're also going into opex which tends to be all compressing in the short term but we I we we talked about this before you know 60 90day ball is way too cheap at this

[1:35:43] 60 90day ball is way too cheap at this point uh whether the the uh 10day ball or 15-day ball goes up or down will be a function of the market really on a realized basis realizes in the short term but quite frankly we've slid to way

[1:35:57] too low an implied ball and I um as you start to see this this call squeeze uh kind of expand volume, you're more likely than not then to see that stuff continue to perform in the back from here, whereas the stuff in the

[1:36:11] calendar call spreads from here. Um particularly interesting >> really. Okay. Yeah. I mean, um I I know you were as you were we were coming in, of different trades. Are you as far as your trades, are you sort of trying to

[1:36:25] take advantage of this environment that you're discussing right now where we're upside for some degree because there's been a lot of short calls. Are you you just like, "No, I'm just trading the way that I normally trade. I'm not

[1:36:38] necessarily worried about that." And and again, like what is your terms? Are you pay attention what's going on near-term like you just said because of this you like nah? >> Yeah. So first off we are always looking

[1:36:53] at things on a relative value basis right uh we may be relative to an index right so particularly in the summer the you know dispersion has been a huge you

[1:37:05] know uh win for for us that's something that that we've highlighted is you know is highly likely to perform well in the summer. Um what we start to do as we get opposite, right? Dispersions had a record, right? Things you start to begin

[1:37:21] record, right? Things you start to begin to see more delta 1 action. Um and so this was an opportunity for traders. Index ball on the upside was way too low Index ball on the upside was way too low as we talked about. It was likely if the

[1:37:33] market up and then we know if the market goes down that that ball is probably going to expand. So, so really great relative opportunity in the indexes particularly relative to some of the single name stuff that has been uh

[1:37:46] jacked on the call side. So, so that um that dynamic is something that that we we think will continue to mean revert as we get out of the summer. And the reason for that is not just oh I think this stock is going up or the index is going

[1:37:59] dispersion V had gone too far and the dynamics that drive it which is V ending right. they're coming to the end of the summer uh or you know diminishing I guess I should say. Um so so that is

[1:38:13] really um kind of how we think about things. Uh that is relative value things. Uh that is relative value right um but it is also um an opportunity um because a lot of those uh the index

[1:38:26] itself hasn't gone anywhere from a realized basis um and directional basis. >> Directional hasn't gone. >> We're up a little bit here. >> The summer

[1:38:39] >> has gone down big and up big, right? But net net, where have we gone this summer? >> We're up days. >> Of course. Of course. I'm not saying the last four days. I'm saying this summer. Net net, we have gone nowhere. This is

[1:38:52] what happens this summer. You got a lot of chop. Um and uh and so you have to zoom out, right, and take a look at what's what's actually happening. Uh meanwhile you've had uh you know a a significant dispersion in performance

[1:39:06] significant dispersion in performance underneath the hood. Um so point is uh underneath the hood. Um so point is uh this is an opportunity uh from a a lot of the flows are what's driven this performance this summer um in the

[1:39:18] underlying stocks themselves. So not just on a VA basis but on a single stock basis and uh and that represents an opportunity for uh a bit of mean have when you talk about the call calendars um just to be super clear are

[1:39:33] you looking at like long October short September I mean you can see twice the amount of time but you're you're getting 70% of the implied move in the 43day cycle relative to se to October plus - 416 points plus - 316 points you have

[1:39:49] what you're looking at this kind of spacing or you looking at different >> uh I would prefer to have our shorts much closer so we think implied vault starting to go up. So, we really want to be uh you know, August uh opex uh maybe

[1:40:06] uh end of August opex, but really basically end of summer. >> We think there's now that we've had this big rally, right, it's natural that there's going to be a digestion that happens of this rally. Um and then we

[1:40:20] think V itself is is broadly going to go higher and not just realize V. Again, we could sit here for two weeks is my point and you could see the front of the and you could see the front of the curve, you know, implode, all that ball

[1:40:32] disappear that's exploded as a a short-term people trying to put band-aids on this by gamma deal with all on that. Um, and meanwhile, the implied got this significant opportunity now after a big move of

[1:40:46] of a of a digestion of a the implied ball spike on the calls in the short term um kind of giving way and meanwhile uh people looking forward uh to the midterms and the fall and then next year which has incredible risks in it and the

[1:41:02] start to expand. So we really think uh to answer your question I'd be buying post midterm. So, November, December, um, and really, uh, you know, selling late August, something along those

[1:41:14] lines. >> Um, well, yeah. No, Jim is absolutely those who who haven't seen it. If you look at DSPX, that uh tells you. So, again, dispersion was um was very high not too long ago. We were seeing all

[1:41:28] And then now all of a sudden um and and SIBO note that came out Monday um that they bring out um as I'm as I'm teasing It's not like they pay me to do it. No, I'm just kidding. Um but that that's a

[1:41:42] really great note that they bring out and uh yeah, we've seen all if you look the change and um that gets to the point of what we were talking about this haven't seen that rotation as much as we were we were seeing that big rotation

[1:41:55] for a long time. chips out of chips into uh the the consumer staples and into the software even and and I want to get your thoughts on this too and then back and thoughts on this too and then back and forth. But ever since what happened a

[1:42:07] couple of days ago with the situational awareness, we're not seeing that. Have >> Yeah, I would say the situational awareness piece uh is it obviously it

[1:42:19] reflexively also accelerated that rotation at the end. uh it wasn't just them uh you know there's stories of um funds in Germany and and abroad uh having issues >> um but the original reason for that

[1:42:36] rotation I want to be clear was positioning in the market right uh this are like long all like AI is going to do XYZ over the long term uh because of uh

[1:42:49] much earnings they're going to make right fundamental view these a lot of positioning don't understand the amount of volatility that could happen as a function of it um and and when and they're over levered uh and so those

[1:43:02] things led to that decline I want to be clear that wasn't the cause I think it was more of a final effect but um and because of that I would argue that uh which are still in place all the call buying and the single names are still in

[1:43:18] place for at least another month here and so those are on a rotational and so those are on a rotational momentum basis still an overhang. Um, and so I just want to like dismiss the kind of oh well Leopold has blown out.

[1:43:33] That's what drove the decline. That was part of it at the end, but the structural primary part of of why that rotation happened, why uh that's likely to still be an overhang are still in place, which is massive call

[1:43:47] positioning. uh uh dealers massively short um at the at the momentum level short um at the at the momentum level semi-memory whatever level and and those uh those things are still in place uh and I would say at least for the next

[1:44:01] two to four weeks um that's going to be a headwind for you know despite the great two-day let's say performance uh on on uh for momentum days of this rally didn't look particularly good for momentum

[1:44:17] though. >> It doesn't start out like gang busters, sell into it and then >> not usually the winner the loser. times you see the opposite, right? The the biggest losers become the biggest

[1:44:31] winners in a in a Vbottom, right? Um but uh but my point is just watch that momentum trade closely. Not just the move of the index, but what is momentum doing? And look at today, the NASDAQ's up 44 basis points. The S&P is up 61.

[1:44:47] >> Yeah. >> Um particularly in a in a call squeeze. >> So my my point to you is just just watch that closely here. I I don't I actually think there's a lot of still overhang there. And the same things that drove

[1:45:01] the initial rotation, you know, against it are still in place here into this rally. And if anything, all the call buying in that area is going to force another wave of that. And that's dangerous. So just be careful

[1:45:15] that you know what would happen now if after this 4-day big rally uh where it shows momentum still dramatically underperforming over the course of the summer this 4-day window but the course of the summer what would happen now if

[1:45:28] basis that doesn't look very good precisely as you get market up volume so just just be watching that it's an interesting kind of important uh part of watching >> well I mean this is definitely playing

[1:45:41] out the last time you here So kudos so far. And Jim, just one time, one time, >> I want a guy that owns a a fund like this, situational awareness or SPF. I

[1:45:53] want him to look like a model. Just one time. Like one [laughter] time. time. Like one [laughter] time. >> Yeah. Um, no, that's uh he not only I but not only does he did did he not have situational awareness, uh, no social

[1:46:06] awareness, you know, like [laughter] >> Exactly. You know, that's what I'm what >> it's part of the it's part of >> you got to be you got to be a bit of a a nerd savant uh to to get into that

[1:46:19] position I guess but uh [laughter] but yeah why can't you have both I don't >> maybe one day hey there's black swans uh that have happened elsewhere maybe that's that's what we're that's what we're going for in the future but Jim

[1:46:31] appreciate you uh Monday show >> loved it uh and you can catch Jim on the Monday shows of course Monday 3 p.m. always talking volatility, options, macro. So, check it out if you haven't already. Um, and we'll see you we'll see

[1:46:45] >> See you later. Looking forward to more of these. Take care, guys. >> Likewise. Uh, yeah. E- mini's up 45, NASDAQ up 115ish, your way on the YouTube channel as well

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[1:50:07] Mini sliding here only up 38. Um, let us know in the YouTube chat whether you talking about uh [laughter] McDonald's coffee will get you buzzing, but if I go on a road trip, I I go to McDonald's, not directly, but it's if it's attached

[1:50:22] to a gas station, I'm forced to go and I get a 20piece nugget with some barbecue I'm driving. >> I bet it sounds sounds amazing. I don't know. Let's bring in our guest here to see what he thinks.

[1:50:35] Knight, how you doing? >> I know you're a McDonald savant. Maybe, maybe not. No, in the past decade I've been once.

[1:50:47] >> And that was just cuz I needed their Wi-Fi. Um, [laughter] so >> eat anything. >> No, you know. >> No, you know. Oh, I mean I I honestly I ordered one of

[1:50:59] their, you know, like cheeseburger things and it's like, holy lord, this is >> Exactly. >> It was Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Absolutely dreadful. Um, so no, we we

[1:51:11] should not get it'd be definitely dangerous to get into some sort of [laughter] my snobbery will come out worse than >> Um, yeah, but they have good Wi-Fi. I'll give them that. Thanks, McD.

[1:51:26] >> And they have a superb stock. >> It never goes down. Is an amazing stock. >> And that's where the that's where the conversation emanated. And I know I I I about to get into them, that's where it started. I actually have this trade in

[1:51:40] Stock's been on its lows. It's kind of interesting. But uh speaking of lows, we're away from that. We're obviously on highs. How are you feeling in this area technically look like to you? >> Well, let's let's thumb them through.

[1:51:54] basics. Let's go to our old friend, the Spider, the first and the biggest ETF Spider, the first and the biggest ETF out there. Um and um the past four days, as your prior guest was just mentioning, have been just this eyepopping rally. At

[1:52:08] the moment, we we appear to be at the sort of like, you know, you throw the at its apex. You're just sort of watching it. We're just kind of hanging test is going to be because, you know, this will sell off at some point, maybe

[1:52:21] today, maybe tomorrow. But the next important test is how does it behave when it approaches that rectangle again? because that rectangle has represented because that rectangle has represented months of um just entrament and it's

[1:52:34] finally escaped and the bull's job is to keep it out of there. It's got to find support there and if it just sort of like droops back into that rectangle that that's a big alarm bell but we're far far away from that. I'm just saying

[1:52:47] as we when we ultimately do sell off to there for whatever reason um that's the item to watch. Yeah, I think it'll be interesting to see where we go from here, but uh just like anything else, when you have a

[1:53:01] vertical bar to the upside, you should not be surprised to see a little relief >> Mhm. Yeah, there's going to be some some profit taking. And and actually, I I made sort of a a prediction that we

[1:53:14] would look at SpaceX first, and that uh that did not materialize, but you know what? I'd like to because SpaceX I think demands a glance for a couple of reasons. Let's just hop over into that. So, kind of good news, bad news. Um

[1:53:30] that it it seems to have at least found a bottom for now. Um their revenues came Their losses came in more modest than expected. Um, and so the low we saw on

[1:53:44] expected. Um, and so the low we saw on um, uh, right here on this bar, which got down to what was the low about 104.83. Uh, that hasn't been challenged. So, we've made it safely to the other side

[1:53:56] of their first um, earnings announcement. The not so great news is that this is a kind of a classic sell the news kind of event because uh we had two nice fat green bars here and when they did release the earnings yesterday

[1:54:11] continued to rally cuz it was a good report. Uh and then it just slumped lower. So basically gave up all of yesterday's gains and we're trading back where we were a couple of days ago. So we are down um over $10. But as I say,

[1:54:26] for the longer term SpaceX holders, maybe we've at least found um a bottom for now. I guess what's getting pressed is that, you know, Elon, he likes to dream really, really, really big. And even though those dreams never fully

[1:54:38] materialize, they partly materialize, which is how he's gotten to where he's at today. So, the latest thing is like we're going to have robots doing manufacturing on the moon. Like, cool. Okay. But the investors today weren't

[1:54:51] too thrilled with that. So, um I think we can breathe a little sigh of relief of this report. >> Yeah. I mean, sounds like you're taking saying something like that. I mean, >> or ketamine. Yeah. That's the drug of

[1:55:04] >> Yeah. Right. [clears throat] >> He hit the old ketamine the ketamine lounge before the before the call. But, um yeah, one of them we actually had a audio clip this morning about um >> how they're specifically using Nvidia.

[1:55:19] He said Nvidia like 10 times in a 15 15 second segment. >> Uh Nvidia is up 4% today which is an interesting turn of events cuz I did not have that on my bingo card. U we'll see. >> No, Nvidia's Nvidia's been a real you

[1:55:33] know it's kind of underperformer relative to the superstars and semiconductors this year and this has been a nice uh boost for it. Uh I mean been a nice uh boost for it. Uh I mean even Elon uh described his idea as uh a

[1:55:46] little nuts I think was the word he used. But um uh that's a perfect segue the other big earnings yesterday of course was uh was AMD and they um are taking a tumble which is unusual in the semiispace these days.

[1:56:03] But from a charting perspective I mean I've been so disheartened by the the breakouts we've been seeing and the and the ruined patterns. It's kind of nice ourselves in this. Um, this is still rangebound. We're right smack dab in the

[1:56:16] middle of the range. We've had a uh we reversed away from yesterday's strength and uh it's this is still a potentially bearish setup because semiconductors have everything going for them these days and we're still hammering out what

[1:56:31] might be if we get below this low a very substantial topping pattern. But yeah, that's that kind of puts the in until I think it's exactly four weeks from today um in in four weeks from today after the close is the Nvidia report. Until then,

[1:56:48] as far as earnings. >> Yeah, you're right. bunch of earnings this week, but they're all obviously lesser known products compared to the likes of Nvidia. But yeah, AMD I mean AMD down today uh is

[1:57:06] right in line with the narrative of if you triple your capex, you are going to see a softer stock price on the open the next day. Like that's that's been the story. Uh and it's it's really permeated through a lot of those companies. So

[1:57:20] >> Yeah. And the cap the capex from SpaceX is what zapped them too because the the even though the revenue was stronger and the losses weren't a severe the capex was way higher than they thought because AI is expensive to pay for. So

[1:57:33] >> yep indeed >> um I'm going to I'm going to uh semiirect myself on the earnings thing because there's one kind of interesting one this afternoon coming out which is Western Digital. Uh the chart itself

[1:57:47] isn't like super interesting. Uh except when you do back up here over the long haul, it has been since um the liberation day bottom here just a sensation. We've moved on this around 30 to about 800. Um but then this the

[1:58:03] storage stocks did start to break down. The shorterterm trend line on this um which is our other springtime low. We had one last year, one this year. Uh we broke that a while back and it's been um it looks very subdued here although the

[1:58:17] r the nominal range is pretty big about $80 or so. Uh but WDC Western Digital is reporting um after the um after the close. I don't have a position on it but

[1:58:29] um I would I would lean kind of bearish on this. Uh I don't know if you fellas about WDC. I mean honestly it all boils down I I

[1:58:41] have some um sort of defined risk positions and in not in WDC I have it in Sandisk which also has earnings a day but I mean to to your point I mean they're they're all similar right WDC SanDisk all of them and so it's going to

[1:58:54] boil down to free cash flows right I mean that's been that's been the the cree cash flows and capex and how are they not spending on AI and how are they not losing money on doing that right now so I'd be shocked if they went up

[1:59:07] >> well I mean, even though you're not on WDC directly, you kind of might as well be because they're all I mean, it'll definitely inform uh what happens to SNDK for sure, especially if it's an outsized move. Um, let's see if there's

[1:59:22] farewell chart for the day. Just something to keep an eye on. Metals have been very strong, just like all other assets recently. I would point out if if anyone's kind of itching for a a bearish metals trade, uh, you could do worse

[1:59:35] metals and mining. And what's intriguing to me about this is this big price gap that we're getting kind of close to. Um, and so we've had some big lunges higher. I would say the closer we get to sealing up that price gap, the more appealing

[1:59:50] this gets on a riskreward ratio because longer term the chart has uh broken down. And very long-term the the ratio chart of XME versus GDX is very bearish. So, if one were inclined to want to be bearish the miners, I think you'd be

[2:00:05] much better off with XME as opposed to GDX. precious metals today. They've [clears throat] led the charge to the actually caught up, too. >> Wow.

[2:00:18] first checked, it was only up like 2 and a half%. So, it's a day for the precious >> Well, let's Yeah, let's get this Iran news out of the way. Can someone announce something? because this is just a fog that I really want to lift.

[2:00:32] >> Well, according to the crude oil markets, uh the backwardation is gone and the back months are below 70 now. There's four of them that are below 70 now. So, I think the the writing is on the wall. Hopefully, we can get on the

[2:00:44] change. >> We got to wait another two or three days >> Uhhuh. >> If I'm keeping the car Yeah. >> Yeah. Do that. Well, Tim, appreciate

[2:00:58] >> All right. See you guys. See you. >> Yes. Uh, Eminy's NASDAQ sliding here. Ein only up 36. NASDAQ was just red, but it's up 50 points now. U, but yeah,

[2:01:10] your way on the YouTube chat as well as tasty.com. So, stay tuned. We'll see you tasty.com. So, stay tuned. We'll see you on the other side of this break.

[2:01:39] net on all qualifying deposits up to $3,000. You can trade stocks, options, futures, and prediction markets. Tasty Trade. Trade with us. We built Tasty Trades web platform for today's traders. See it,

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[2:02:24] best-in-class for future trading. [music] And broker chooser thinks we're pretty great, too. So, what else can we say other than trade? >> Putting on strategies, that's easy.

[2:02:38] Taking off strategies, that's also pretty easy. What do you do with everything in between? Well, in our options crash course strategy series, the winners. We're going to show you how to handle the losers, but most

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[2:03:18] another segment for you. A little bit of research market measure sponsored by thing only. Julia is on the line. And Julia, it's been a wild morning here. it? >> It's man, oh boy doggy, is it green. I

[2:03:34] was watching AMD last night. Um, and what was interesting is that Nvidia, so AMD dumped, uh, and then, uh, Nvidia and it was because of like a SpaceX earnings mention basically of Nvidia.

[2:03:47] So, definitely, uh, selling the pickaxes during the, uh, gold rush vibes is what I got. So, really interesting movement last night and then I I don't know, I just really wanted the market to open red. Uh, and here we are.

[2:04:00] >> Market doesn't go down >> Yeah. Yeah, just up like 5% in the last five days, five trading days, which is like half of what it normally moves in a year. So, just really crazy behavior.

[2:04:14] sideways for Yeah, like the last like six months approximately. So, um I don't term? Is this a breakout? >> It's a breakout for sure, but um

[2:04:26] it's got to calm down a little. I think um I think you want it to calm down. And I think if you get another 100 plus day like right today ahead of a big macro scary. >> Yeah.

[2:04:39] >> Oh, for sure. Yeah. To me, this doesn't feel like a breakout. It feel Oh, I'm wise, it is a breakout. It feels more like a short squeeze, to be honest. >> I still stand by my 7810. >> 7810. Hey, that'd be crazy.

[2:04:53] >> Another 400 pointsish. Yeah, NASDAQ just ticked uh ticked red, so it feels like we might slide here a little bit, which should surprise no one, but we've got happens. >> Yeah, I got some hedges on. And then,

[2:05:07] yeah, like AMD just kind of gave back like, but it had like a monster rally a lot of its gains from yesterday. And I still don't think it's flat from >> Yeah, >> it's not even still up. Um Nvidia having

[2:05:21] a nice day for Nvidia. Yeah, off those from what I could tell like the SpaceX mentions basically in their earnings announcements while SpaceX is um also it yesterday. >> It's a good point. Both of them are

[2:05:34] trading on Monday. >> Right. Exactly. Um so I don't I don't stopped out on those trades. But to see this one I don't I don't trade the earnings but a diluted earnings trade. >> What I like to do. Um but want to get

[2:05:50] >> Let's do it. Mhm. >> Let's do it. Okay. So, um today, uh so over on X if you want to give him a follow. But we're going to be looking at trend trading, like does the trend really matter for selling premium? And

[2:06:04] to right now. Um but we're basically going to be looking at the strength of kind of trends in the market as he's measuring it here to see how that um strangles and for puts. >> Let's do it.

[2:06:18] this. So here we're going to be looking at 16 delta spy strangles and 30 delta short puts. 45 DTE managed to 21 days. We're going to be looking at 2121 to 2026. So not the longest look back, you know, um but it definitely a bullish

[2:06:33] time period um for a lot of that. Uh not the longest look back, but meant to be market conditions. Um so here we're going to be comparing um the price of the underlying versus its 50-day moving average. So simple moving average. We're

[2:06:46] gonna basically be looking at like how strong um the underlying is relative to the moving average. So um here he kind of gives the methodology a little bit below, but we're basically going to be defining a strong trend either to the

[2:06:58] upside or to the downside as the underlying price being approximately 3% below it in the case of a downward does the kind of trend like the strength of the bull or the bare market really

[2:07:12] matter? Which regime kind of helps or hurts? And um is that strength more important than direction? Make sense? >> So we're getting S&P 500 spies gets the 50-day moving average. We're selling strangle there or a

[2:07:27] short puts like every day regardless of what the trend actually is. But we're P&Ls and the you know the tail risk based on what the trending environment is when you opened up the trade. And here we're looking at 45 days 21 DTE. So

[2:07:41] people trade now. But we're going to be saying like if you know we open this trade in a trending market either to the upside to the downside or a quiet market you know what are the you know what are the trade-offs like what are the P&Ls

[2:07:54] like what kind of benefits the most for these different strategies >> make sense like it >> we got a lot of grids here I love a good grid okay let's go to the next slide so first grid so here we're looking at

[2:08:07] neutral strategy so we're looking our you know expected move 16 delta strangle looking at average P&L per trade and here We're breaking down the upward quiet trend, which is kind of like less thanish 3% or within 3% I guess to the

[2:08:20] upside of its uh 50-day moving average. Um the quiet down, the strong trend upward and then the strong trend down. Um where we can see that the quiet tend to at least from an average P&L perspective be the most profitable,

[2:08:34] your kind of, you know, regular typical bullish market conditions where maybe then, but for the most part, like the market is moving up and it's relatively the environment that we're seeing right now where we're seeing a very strong

[2:08:49] trending upward um, you know, velocity, I guess you could say, in the market. though these are neutral strategies, they tend to average, you know, like a positive P&L um just overall during the look back um period. Although we can

[2:09:03] right now like when those call breaches happen they can they can really stink fluctuations you have volatility you have corrections um even during those very strong periods um that still averages positive P&L um we really don't

[2:09:17] see the negative P&L until we start to see like the strong downward trend and that's just because the velocity of those moves in those market conditions like when we go from you know like VIX being I don't know 16 up to being

[2:09:32] um when you're not collecting enough to necessarily compensate for those big starting to see those negative P&Ls appear on average just looking at the last 5 years. >> Totally makes sense to me.

[2:09:44] >> Yeah, I think it makes sense to me, too. So, um kind of makes sense. Yeah. So, those uh quiet upward trends are really what benefits strangles the most. Noting necessarily need to be high in those conditions, right? A lot of the time

[2:09:57] when you know the market's just kind of drifting up in a steady way like vault interesting thing about short premium is that you know like the the you still have high approximately the same pops I should say across like all those

[2:10:10] different VIX regimes. So um that being said let's go to the next slide and look thought was very interesting actually. So the short puts um likewise performed up and having relatively low volatility being relatively quiet. But because the

[2:10:27] premiums inflate so much on the put side when the market goes down it actually the strongest you know regime for this strategy was the strong downward trend. and that's just because of like how much the you know put premiums increase. So

[2:10:41] even though you might, you know, take a loss, you know, when the VIX pops, when inflates so much, we're seeing that actually be the strongest regime here where like the quiet downtrend and the strong trend um are like you I should

[2:10:55] say like the quiet downtrend, the quieter ones uh tend to be a little bit more stable compared to the strong ones or consistent I should say. >> Yeah. Yeah, and I think this speaks to uh the lack of losses on a big uh big

[2:11:10] rally. Like when we looked at the strangle, you saw some lesser losses on you see the downside move, but when you just have the short put, you don't have eliminated, but you also get that bigger premium on the downside moves, um which

[2:11:26] >> Yeah, that's an important thing to note, volatile. when the market becomes volatile like we think like market is because the size of those downward moves are so big that like that's what we tend

[2:11:39] to focus on but some of the largest moves to the upside also happen when the VIX is high and markets are elevated during like sell-off conditions you know like that's when you see a lot of moves to the upside as well. Um or likewise if

[2:11:52] over the last couple weeks we had one kind of rough down day of down 2% and then followed by a bunch of like sequential up days to kind of like kind seeing just over the last 5 years the puts really benefiting from that. Um

[2:12:07] specific market conditions over the last five years. Um and we're also not trend. So this is just if we trade it every day um how does the trend of the

[2:12:19] uh change the statistics? Make sense? >> Yep. It it's almost like you can whisper shows the catch. been a little bit of a Well, let's see what the catch is. So, and I'm sure you

[2:12:33] but when you're looking at those short puts um it's really that tail risk and that tail risk where it doesn't happen very much but when it does happen it tends to happen um when uh if we go to the next slide

[2:12:47] perhaps there we go um so when we look at the short puts and we look at the tail risk the sort of like market trending upwards being relatively low kind of hugging its 50-day moving

[2:13:00] least amount of tail risk in the back test that we've done and we actually see the down quiet and the down strong regimes um kind of logging the highest um tail risk noting that these are relatively unlikely risks. These are the

[2:13:14] you know weighted risks in the or the weighted losses in the worst 5% of cases is what we're looking at here. And this is again just because like when those expected ranges are tight and volatility is low, that's when short premium

[2:13:28] losses because your credits have not adjusted to the volatility conditions kind of what we're seeing here during those downward movements just because the market is so sensitive um or I should say volatility is so sensitive to

[2:13:42] the market going down that we can really see that reflected here. see that reflected here. >> Yeah. And uh this is why sizing is so withstand these. These are it's just

[2:13:56] selling puts, if you're selling anything, you're going to get whipsaw at some point. And if your size is too big, >> it's going to be super painful. So, got to keep that in check at all times. >> Got to keep it in check. That's right.

[2:14:10] mindful during all ball conditions because even though like pops might be relatively consistent across volatility regardless of whether the VIX is at 16 or, you know, 70, like pops for strategies are relatively the same. Um,

[2:14:23] but that being said, like tail risk isn't necessarily the same. And so just being mindful especially across like volatility conditions of sizing um is I think super important. That's kind of reflected here. So um when we kind of

[2:14:35] look at the next slide as well um but obviously like those those strong down volatility and you know traders the market is so sensitive to the market going down when that does happen and there is strength behind that move to

[2:14:48] the downside that's when premiums really become the juiciest. So just really advantage of those high volatility conditions in a careful responsible way when they do come up um is you know it's pretty important for sustainability long

[2:15:02] >> Julia, just real quick, somebody asked in the chat, and I don't remember from the beginning, are there any stops for these strats or just let it go to expiration despite the price action? >> So, these are 45DTE managed at 21 days.

[2:15:16] So, we do have like early management kind of put in here, but we don't have like stop losses, which a lot of people would typically use for um undefined using early management. We're not using credit thresholds. We're just doing that

[2:15:29] to kind of control like the tail risk a little bit. Um but we really wanted to just try to understand this um as cleanly as possible if that makes sense. So we took out managing at a percentage of initial credit any kind of stop

[2:15:41] losses are not accounted for here. >> That would of course skew the statistics as well as like rolling mechanics um would change the statistics as well. >> Cool. All right. Let's get to some takeaways. So um what we can see is that

[2:15:55] direction really beats strength here is that like that is like very much a major indicator I should say um for uh this type of like trend trading analysis. Um fear uh this fearing the strong downward trend um rather than this kind of quiet

[2:16:10] quiet you know sort of like bullish low volatility market conditions um is what's the most important here. Um, and of course like sizing is a very maintaining sizing regardless of where the VIX actually is because if that pop

[2:16:22] does happen when VIX is low that is unlikely to happen but when it does it can kind of it it stinks. Um so when we uh look at the short puts um we really saw those just because the premium increased so much we really see um those

[2:16:37] strong downward trends like becoming extremely profitable right but with that increased tail risk um really in any of the conditions when the VIX was going down or when the I should say the market was going down. So um here what we can

[2:16:49] really see is that like volatility is just a very important thing here as well a little bit more so than a trend I should say. Um, but yeah, I think that's >> Nice. >> Beautiful.

[2:17:01] >> Yep. >> Cool. Thank you guys. >> Absolutely for coming on. >> Adios. >> Yeah, E- Minis selling off a little bit. NASDAQ selling off and yeah, I think the

[2:17:14] biggest the biggest takeaway there is uh sizing correctly and just recognizing that uh tail risk can come in all sizes. The last four days, the tail risk has been to the upside. uh if you look at any chart in the E- minis or NASDAQ or

[2:17:28] any of these tech stocks. So, got to keep that size in check and know where your opportunities lie. But that's the beauty of the research is is they allow >> Mhm. But that's a good one like kind of analyzing it up against a 50-day moving

[2:17:40] average. I mean, you know, those are interesting times. And I always say like in technical analysis, if you will. Not that, you know, using a 50-day moving average as technical analysis, but they do identify these these greed and fear

[2:17:53] pockets where things eventually possibly move. And so, it's kind of interesting looking at selling ball at those areas. >> Yeah. Join us on the YouTube chat if you haven't already. We're going to take the next 10 minutes or so after this break

[2:18:05] scanning through looking for trade ideas and questions. So, join us on the Tasty Live YouTube channel. We'll be back in about 90 seconds.

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[2:20:34] over the next 10 minutes or so. get your questions answered. But real quick recap from the morning show. Decently active here. Uh so I got in an S&P Super Bowl 7745 7750 short put spread five points wide to buy the 7850 7860 call spread.

[2:20:51] One day to go small 10-centent credit. Uh we're chopping around there. We'll see if we get a rally over the next day or so. But uh AMD bought the dip here 40 a 450440 short put spread to buy a 550 560 call spread in September. That was a

[2:21:07] $150 credit in the middle there. GLD closed out of that. That was a nice winner on this rally and pop in the precious metal. So I had the 380 390 call diagonal spread. Just had an order working for a $200 winner and got filled

[2:21:19] just a little bit ago. And then same thing with Netflix. Had an order to thing with Netflix. Had an order to close for $240 of profit. the 6560 short put spread to finance the 7585 call spread and uh Super Bowls keep on keep

[2:21:33] >> nice >> yeah they've been great >> you've been active too >> yeah I've done a couple of things um what have I done uh yeah again that was crazy I had that order out yesterday I

[2:21:46] surprised I got filled but uh bought that put back in in Netflix 50% gain there Nvidia uh I've I've had some layered calendar calls and um as the able to take these off. Took off the 220 there. I still have another one. I think

[2:22:02] I got two more maybe. Um I think I got them $15 wide. So 235 and the 250s as well. Both the same way. September AUG. Um I did sell a future in the ES here at 7,800. I did sell a future here in the Q's for 3 thou 30,000. just want to, you

[2:22:18] days and the way we were looking this morning and stocks are up and ball is up, let's see what happens. Might just be for the day. Uh SanDisk I had um that

[2:22:30] be for the day. Uh SanDisk I had um that uh call butterfly on uh since last week. seeing the show and seeing some of the things I do, been doing these periodically a week out um as the stocks have dipped. Didn't work out last week.

[2:22:43] Taking this off as it's heading into earnings. The McDonald's is one of those on. I still have another one of these. I still have the 270 300 I think. Um but

[2:22:55] took this one off as the stock is moving into earnings. into earnings. >> Yeah, it's uh it feels like SanDisk and WDC, they just have to go down, right? >> I mean,

[2:23:07] their their capex [clears throat] is going to be through the roof. I don't know. I I I think that's to tease it. I think that might be the trade of the day WDC because it's much much more uh cost

[2:23:21] effective to do it in WDC versus SanDisk. SanDisk is super expensive, but later. >> Yeah. I mean, I um I went to chat GPT and I asked, you know, do they have uh do they have to report SanDisk and and

[2:23:34] WDC? Do they have to report free cash flows? And they said, yeah, they do. Um Digital has historically highlighted free cash flow as a key performance metric because of the NAND and HDD manufacturing required blah blah blah

[2:23:47] blah blah and SanDisk also reports operating free cash flow. So, I mean, I how is it positive? Like, how is it? So far, we've only had one company, I think, that had positive free cash flow, right? Like, was it was it Amazon? I

[2:24:01] can't remember. We looked at that uh graphic a couple of days ago, but of the tech companies that we pay attention to. Yeah. >> They're just so huge. Like, they can

[2:24:13] >> Yeah. >> It's like I I always go back to COVID down and they got bought out by the restaurant groups. like the same thing float. >> Um but yeah, WDC either way they're

[2:24:27] going to be super expensive, but I have my eye on something that I'll reveal a it's definitely going to be defined risk. Uh probably a put calendar, but >> Yep. Yep. >> YouTube chat, anything popping off

[2:24:41] there? >> Um let's see. I haven't noticed as much. Um, do we >> Do we have any >> Would you guys close up the short and

[2:24:55] free up the buying power on the free call? Let the free call spread, right? Well, this is this is a deep question. I mean, this is a actual question. Do you guys ever close the short put spread in a Oh, must be the Super Bowl. Yeah.

[2:25:07] Yeah. Yeah. It's got to be. Somebody asked if we ever close a short uh We yesterday, but we'll answer again. We'll answer as many times you guys keep situations when we do have um let's just say you have a a super bull, right? And

[2:25:21] you're long uh a call spread versus a short put spread, we will close those um regardless if it's $5 wide or $10 wide. If it's like 10 cents or, you know, 20 cents. Uh and again, whether it's $5 wide or or $10 wide, you know, just

[2:25:35] think about it how much you can lose if the stock falls back down. You can lose in that regard, you know, $490 or $990 if it's a 10-cent spread. you just close get that buying power back. So absolutely and u for somebody who's

[2:25:49] asking us about super bull again once again it's selling a put spread which is a bullish trade to finance buying a call spread and so you try to get them on for a credit not for a debit right you always try to get it on for a credit and

[2:26:03] if it stays in between those strikes then you keep that credit regardless move in the case of a Super Bowl to the upside and it breaches your long call strike then you can begin to make some pretty good money um and then somebody

[2:26:16] who is absolutely going nuts about app loving in the chat. We don't I don't really been interested in it. We could look at it, I guess, but I don't know. earnings? The only way I'd ever trade this if it already had earnings and I

[2:26:32] would sell volunteer. Other than that, >> yeah, $50 implied move on the $430 stock. So, plenty of implied volatility. Um, I just don't I'd have to look into butt. Uh, but >> it's a software name, right? I think

[2:26:46] names, right? I can't remember. I >> Yeah, but either way, 50 point implied move on a $400 stock is definitely big. And one one last note on the Super Bowls. Um, >> this one I have in Meta. I sold I sold

[2:27:00] the put spread and I bought the call spread, but my put spread was $100 more $100 of net credit in the middle. that if you're if you're buying back the put spread, the most important thing to realize is if you buy back the put

[2:27:13] spread and you give you put yourself into a net debit. So, what I mean by that is here, if we look again, I collected a net credit of $100. So, if all these options expire worthless, I keep that $100 credit. But if I bought

[2:27:26] back this put spread right now, and this is a $500 winner. If I bought this bought back this put spread right now for $2, all of a sudden I have out of the money risk. If my call spread expires out of the money, I lose money

[2:27:39] now. I would lose $100. So keep that in mind. That's why Jamal kept saying 10 back your put spread for a very small dollar amount and you still maintain a net credit overall, that's the situation where we'd buy it back. Otherwise, we

[2:27:53] keep it on uh because that's how you get that neutral profitability and a high probability trade. >> But Jamal, it's been uh a blast blast of >> Oh yeah. Uh crazy day in the markets. E- minis have chopped around. NASDAQ keeps

[2:28:07] going from red to green. But stay tuned on the YouTube chat and the tastylive.com website if you're watching there. But we're going to pass it over out to us, you can find us on Twitter. I'm at Trader Mikey B. Jamal at Jamal

[2:28:19] Chandler. Stay tuned though. We'll be back right after this break.

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[2:30:01] She's Liz Dear King. I'm Chris Veio. This is Confirm and Send. You ask us we can. And maybe there's a trade that comes out of it. Liz, how are you today? Chris? Good. >> I'm doing well. I want to say I can hear

[2:30:15] Jamal, producers, if you don't mind killing that. >> [clears throat] >> Get Jeral out of our head. [laughter] >> you can't. You can't. He's always in there. Today is an interesting day

[2:30:27] though, Chris. So, we had a pretty big rally. We've come We've come back down. But what I was going to say is the VIX is finally finally going according to is down. This morning when we were up 50 points, Chris, 50 points, the VIX was up

[2:30:41] 5%. It screams to me that this market is the are buying a lot of out of the money calls and they're trying to chase us >> Well, that's what I was saying this morning, but now it's turned around,

[2:30:54] performing the way that it should with the market. VIX is finally coming down a little bit. reinforces it, right? The market rally cools off as the VIX comes in because

[2:31:07] the call buying is slowing down. >> Yeah, it does. So >> this is to me one of the weirdest environments I've ever traded in. interesting. We've had a lot of earnings, of course, Palunteer, SpaceX,

[2:31:20] AMD. We still have several that are coming out later on today that obviously warrant some attention and and and you know, some consideration here. Might as well get there right now. Um Sandis, Western Digital, Apploving, McKessen,

[2:31:32] there's a few here on the board. Door Dash, uh you go down the line, maybe get a little bit less popular, but Axon's even on there. eBay is on there. Surely names. >> You know what's so funny is I I the they

[2:31:46] talking in the chat was asking about Apploven because that was a stock dour last year, right? So that thing just kind of skyrocketed to into perpetuity. So I think a lot of eyes are on Apploven right now. That'd be my guess. Other

[2:31:59] players. I mean, you're going to trade Door Dash and eBay and those aren't that >> Those aren't that exciting anymore. It's interesting that you bring up app here this real quick. For those that haven't had a chance to go see our uh latest

[2:32:12] itself, >> did I suggest you go do about this because the stock has moved it just has this incredible price history Liz around uh around these earnings reports and more importantly

[2:32:26] available float from the market. So when you get a thin float you tend to get these outsized reactions and you see it in SpaceX today for example 10% swing interesting dynamic that's playing out right now. So, I'd encourage people to

[2:32:39] check this out. But it consistently beats the implied move is basically the moral of the story here. Um, today $51 in either direction on a $430 stock. So, a little bit more than 10%, right? We're talking about like 12.5% expected move

[2:32:54] here. Um, but this is this is really it's just it's a stock that jumps around here in a minute. >> It's it's relatively I mean I mean I that old, right? It's only a couple years old,

[2:33:06] >> correct? Yeah, only a couple years old. Um, the last 10day print record is wild Um, the last 10day print record is wild here. Uh, Q225, up 12% the next day, here. Uh, Q225, up 12% the next day, 14.3% a week later. Q125, 11.9% higher

[2:33:21] the next day, 24.1% higher a week later. Q4 up 24% the next day, higher 29.9% one Q4 up 24% the next day, higher 29.9% one week later. Q3 24, 46.3% the next day, and 68.5% one week later. Uh, so the thing moves a lot and when it's down,

[2:33:36] it's down a lot, right? Uh, Q425, it was down 19.7% the next day. So it has 306 million outstanding shares against 133 billion market cap last time I checked. And you think about AMD with its 1.63 billion shares that are currently

[2:33:50] outstanding. So you get um you know when you have a shrinking market float there Liz and you get a big surprise there's a lot of demand or a lot of relative supply that comes on uh very very quickly and it can produce these outside

[2:34:05] moves. Just for app loving alone, given how it has moved, I would be shocked if here today. >> And I'm going to dumb this down for the lay people like myself because Chris, I love the way you articulate things, but

[2:34:17] wrong, is there are fewer players in the game, so the moves will be bigger. >> That yes, I think that yeah, there's le there's just there's less paper to an earnings report like this. And that's by design. They've been actually they've

[2:34:32] been they've been buying back shares. Um they've apparently bought back in the past years about 21.4% of the outstanding float. So uh more volatility >> Did you and I know you I'm sorry I did not watch your uh signal versus noise on

[2:34:45] the one that I'm going to be looking at today. But uh what are you doing in this? I obviously I'm not going to what I was going to say in these high flies. have no problem selling premium in one direction or the other, but I'm not

[2:34:57] doing both sides. >> No. Um I don't know. You know, you appropriate environment for a jade >> is that a creeper? >> Well, that's neutral, though. So, then

[2:35:11] you're not what in in a So, the jade lizard is a great trade. I I'm not I mean, I like it for earnings. I'm not a huge fan of it for earnings because if not going to do a jade lizard because if this thing skyrockets, I still want to

[2:35:23] Lizard correctly, you don't lose money, but you don't make money. So, I would if I was bearish on it, just be selling calls or call spreads. Yeah. To me, I mean, I think a lot kind of play here is, you know, like a call butterfly or

[2:35:38] expected move to think to think that it can go to either. I mean, and you'd have thing is super duper jumpy. >> I mean, I'm I'm selling puts because I a strike in a jumpy stock. So, that's why I would do something where if it

[2:35:52] expected move or comes down a little bit, I'm still going to be fine and then I'm okay rolling it into perpetuity. Yeah, this stock is obviously a little you know, there's several here. You have

[2:36:04] at, but Sandis Western Digital being the two primary ones that folks have been honing in on. They've had a bit of a whippy day here so far. Uh get a little bit of a gap open lower. They're kind of pinned right now off by 1.5%. We closed

[2:36:17] pinned right now off by 1.5%. We closed yesterday at 1427. Uh we open up today at 1399 and we're currently trading at 1407. So, it's just it's a lot of chop going into this. But SanDisk is a name that you and I have traded recently

[2:36:30] around here. Uh, believe it or not, selling puts during the July move lower. We I think we made out with a little bit of money. Um, how are you >> Be very crystal clear because it's a $1,400 product and that's just

[2:36:43] >> Yeah. Not We don't swim naked around here to just always um at least I don't. right now? It's had a big move. It is a big stock of course. It's not like the 100 or $200 ticker. How are you approaching this? So, it's interesting.

[2:36:55] I mean, I'm think I'm going to look at SanDisk. I have been in SanDisk and I do like to play in it, but it's it's it's a lot at these levels, right? So, I don't if the earnings risk are worth this, but I will be playing it after earnings if

[2:37:07] if this has a big up move kind of similar, and I know they're not in the same realm, but you know how Palanteer had its up move and then it continued ashes. I I think I'm gonna I'm going to look for some followthrough in one

[2:37:19] direction or the other in Xandisk. Now, we didn't get too much follow-through. I want to look at AMD because AMD was down today and it seemed um yeah, it popped followthrough is really what I'm looking for in these big high-f flyers.

[2:37:32] >> You know, I had an AMD trade on going into the earnings uh report itself. my short strike at 480, but what I did earlier today was here on the follow page, I took off the short call spread side, the 585 590 in part because at a

[2:37:44] $5 wide strike, uh you know, trading for 11 cents there, Liz, not exactly. I wouldn't put that trade on for 11 cents on a $5 wide strike. So why would I keep it on? I've basically run into >> So proud of you. So proud of you. Take

[2:37:59] the losing one. >> Right. And so AMD here, if it gets into thing is at a small loss here. But net net, I mean, it would be a few bucks other one for. >> Were you were you symmetrical on that?

[2:38:12] >> Yeah, it was a short iron condor. So it was directly at just on the the bounds we're kind of holding within, you know, if you were trading that and you took now at this price, we are still technically within the bounds and the

[2:38:26] you a net profit on the position. So, I think I took it off for like 65 bucks. This one would come off for a $30 loser right now. Net net, it would be a but it still worked out. >> What did you get total collection on

[2:38:39] your $5 wide? >> Let's see. Um, we did a $1.96 yesterday. know what you can do with this, Chris? And I don't know if you would want to do position page because you closed your call spread that was $5 wide, you can

[2:38:55] a $2.50 wide call spread taking some additional credit if you wanted to like go to see what you can get for the >> uh $4.95 4.97.

[2:39:10] Why? Because when you do this, if you took in a dollar and you're taking or if almost another dollar here, then you can't lose to the upside. >> Uh that is true. That is true. So, you know, let's make a little amend this a

[2:39:24] >> Yeah. So, you if you put that in. So, what's great now is but you got to remember the options don't remember each other. So, it might look like a loss. You know, you've taken in over 250. >> Yes. Right. Right. So, I have Western

[2:39:39] earnings as well. We're going to get to the confirm and sends uh question WDC, not QDC here. Um on the platform, I'm still sitting at 16 days to expiration. seen some of these semiconductor companies trade recently, they have been

[2:39:53] their earnings. They are the price makers in this market. Uh the don't see a reason to change this positioning here. Um it is a $10 wide something still worth exploring? It's a 370 credit, right? Or if I were to take

[2:40:08] this off, let me put it the other way here. 371 credit. Um, so yeah, $10 wide, do mechanically speaking. It's not like it's down to 50 cents and I'm just potentially. >> Correct.

[2:40:21] I have going on today here. [snorts] >> I like it. I'm actually going to jump know what I'm going to do, but you I wrote Chris, this is how uh you know a paper towel so I don't forget to do

[2:40:36] And if you go into the expected move for Western Digital for what it's worth, we go to the 480 485s for example, you're collecting, you know, maybe you want to go up a little bit more, 45,490, you're getting around about a$105 in credit

[2:40:48] there um on $5. It's not fantastic, but you can tinker around with the downside you can tinker around with the downside of the expected move if you're avail

[2:41:01] >> That's exactly what you can do. You can't fight if the market's giving you. can do. >> Miss Dear King, uh, stocks here are 7782. So, I suppose it's a good time to

[2:41:14] your questions in research at ttastylive.com. research best of our abilities. See if there's maybe a trade idea in there that Liz and I would be interested in. Uh, you can put your questions in the YouTube chat.

[2:41:27] the course of the session. Uh sometimes we just incorporate it into what we're desire for us to not not just have the confirm and send at one segment. We're throughout the day a little bit better here. But for now here, Liz, we should

[2:41:42] get on with it. And let's go to the first question, which uh either way, I'll go for this. Read this first. SpaceX lockup starts expiring tomorrow, finally hit the market. That's a known event on a known date. Does something

[2:41:55] of time or does the market only react once the selling actually starts? >> I mean, I think that it's if it's a known date and it's a known time, I don't I mean, I think the market is pricing in everything. This is these are

[2:42:09] what we don't know is what people are going to do because we know they got hold on to for a higher price. It's helpful that I think SpaceX is lower than you know where it even IPOed so that why would they want to unload lower

[2:42:22] don't know what the people are going to do just because the lockup ends. It's >> right? I mean, it's definitely a liquidity event. We can price in a certain amount of risk around such an event because it's a known known and the

[2:42:37] known events are getting priced. Unknown behavior is what causes the discrepancy. >> Yeah. But to that to that point then, Liz, we're not going to have everything Liz, we're not going to have everything perfectly priced because if all of these

[2:42:50] the insiders go, we don't want to sell any of it, then yes, the supply is out there, but it hasn't hit the tape. Um, and vice versa, if there's an supply is going to hit the market and more arrives on the scene, then the

[2:43:04] So, it's not going to be perfect pricing around an event like this, but yes, when it's a known known as, as Donald Rumsfeld might say, uh then then the gauge on it, and it's not going to just react after the fact like, "Oh gosh,

[2:43:18] there was a a lockup ending. We should get to it. It's already gotten to it." >> I got to tell you though, the Chris, and I mean, this is with this lock up with give me the news ahead of time. You can tell me exactly how many people are

[2:43:30] going to do. And the market might react differently, right? So prices, you might something else come in. There's this is a this is an everchanging environment. So I don't know. I love that people ask us these questions as if you and I have

[2:43:43] the answers, but we don't. Do you know what I mean? We don't. No one does. >> Well, we're going to give you our best. And I that's why I like [clears throat] the two of us together because I don't have your macroeconomic brain. I just

[2:43:57] trading brain and I'm an anything goes person. I like that you have the logic it could possibly happen. So, it's good that that that I know you don't make together we might make sense. [laughter] >> A little yin and yang here. We can go to

[2:44:11] question number two, and it's about Palunteer, Liz. Uh why don't you take >> Okay. Palanteer ran ran almost 30% in a single day yesterday. Its options were nowhere near pricing a move that size. when a name blows out the implied

[2:44:25] you rethink selling premium on high growth names at all? this earning cycle that some of these high growth names particularly in the just blowing through their expected moves. And you know, Liz, let's just

[2:44:41] expected moves in the pricing, when we look to the options platform and we see loaning for today um and I'll go over to the trade tab here. We'll go to two days for the expected move. This is the one standard deviation move. You can see the

[2:44:55] two standard deviation move if you go a little bit further out here. Um but but >> right? >> And the way that these AI names have beyond the normal distribution of outcomes of expected outcomes quite

[2:45:11] frequently here. So knowing that like that's the kind of realized V component of this and seeing how that's the way that the market's behaving, it means that if I'm trading in these things, I need to be open-minded to the fact that

[2:45:23] distribution type of move, something that could go further closer to the tails or even, you know, we'll say beyond uh the one standard deviation or even out into the tails, right? So you got to go wider define risk. Uh you got

[2:45:37] to keep your your strikes tighter. So, if I'm thinking in the name of like app 111, maybe a few weeks ago I would have gone $25 wide on my strikes. Maybe I'm Maybe instead of going to like the 30

[2:45:50] down to the 15s. Uh, but that's the kind always checking to see how the market's responding in real time and adjusting I've saved myself some pain in recent days because of that. I made the mistake

[2:46:03] with Tesla. I learned I stopped setting them too tight and it's been an easier >> dismal earnings report. >> I think with something like this, you couldn't I would not with anybody's money sell calls or call spreads in

[2:46:17] like the inflated premium to sell one side or if you want if you want to not to. But for me, what happens when a stock goes down is it keeps its implied defend. Just kind of like what we were watching when you just added that call

[2:46:31] call spread on. you have no risk back to the upside. I have a hard time selling premium in these type of illlquid high-flying stocks. Both sides scare me and most of my biggest losses have come from rip roaring rallies. Right. So I I

[2:46:47] would never have sold calls or call spreads in Palunteer. Palunteer ever. >> Right. Right. Never. I never have and I I know how to defend to the downside through these type of moves. So it's

[2:47:02] >> it's it's hard because we're premium sellers. So nothing is one sizefits-all. interesting. Nothing is one sizefits-all. So what what I think people are trying to do is saying, "Okay, Apploven is a $400 product. It's

[2:47:14] got a 62 IV. The IV is technically nine times out of 10 things are, you know, under their expected move than over." >> Nothing nothing is that quick and simple. You also have to be um what have the sectors been doing? What do you what

[2:47:27] is your feel for it? How do you feel? Like I would be pissed if I lost to the upside in something like Palunteer, you know what I mean? Or even F1 love it. I I do not gonna sell. I might >> I might at the end of the day after the

[2:47:41] don't want to jump. Right. >> You're speaking to something that I feel these names that are highly tied to the retail enthusiasm or to the meme stock crowd. Yeah. >> As it were, then I don't it's not it's

[2:47:54] like, well, I'm not going to bet against the boys, right? It's more like these attention they receive kind of like a Tesla in the 2010s, they can behave a say crazy, but they they don't behave with again within the normal

[2:48:09] distribution of outcomes. And so, uh, when those moves happen, they happen to be asymmetric to one side of the table, right? You know, you may have days where like it's down five or 10%, but those 40% days when they come, they're usually

[2:48:22] only one side of them to the upside. So, I I I'm with you. Like I'm not selling calls or call spreads. I didn't take advantage of it when GME was mooning. I Just not my it's not my bag. >> It's almost like as you're talking, you

[2:48:35] cute little ones, but it's almost like trying to talk a teenager into something. You just can't. There's no there's no like logical you can't logic just can't. So, it's kind of >> I was I was on a [laughter] call last

[2:48:48] changing a diaper and so I had the call muted and someone was just going out. I'm more than happy to trade you this baby right now. I'm cleaning up all this dirty diaper." And she says, "I have two teenagers. I will glad you

[2:49:01] dirty diaper right now." >> 100%. [laughter] >> 100%. So, yeah. >> All right, we got another question here. talking about this this morning because I saw this was sent to me over Twitter.

[2:49:17] that change how its puts and calls are priced? I've never factored dividends into a trade and I don't know if I'm missing something. Um, Liz, I mean, this is the Yes, there's a few things here though, right? Because when you have a

[2:49:30] say this, I don't want people to get in the way. You do not have to really worry there is no gaming of the system. There's nobody out there who's got some stocks. So, I just want I want that to be crystal clear.

[2:49:45] let's say it's a $100 stock, you have a $1 dividend. the stock price is expected to drop from 100 to 99. So mechanically when you get to your dividend dates, coming, the market pricing tends to reflect this. It makes calls a little

[2:50:00] bit cheaper. It tends to make puts a little bit more expensive. But Liz, I you're sitting in a position and all of a sudden the stock price goes down, you you're short a call. You could get assigned or you're short a put, you

[2:50:15] could get assigned. And uh keeping that in mind is probably in the money calls that run the risk of assignment. If you get a signed on a put, then congratulations on your loan. [laughter]

[2:50:27] >> You know, the OIC is because I I looked this up very specifically this morning after Mike had this conversation. But yeah, like that's you may be concerned with assignment. You're the market's going to reflect it though. And the the

[2:50:41] times in response to some of these questions over the past week is that options market will always be there. The options makers and price makers are always going to be moving there. Uh so this is this is a known known. It's kind

[2:50:54] of like um uh you know a non-farm payrolls event on Friday. We know it's prices will be adjusting around it. >> Yes, the prices are but I'm glad you brought up that. So the the real quick kind of if you if a if a stock has gone

[2:51:08] straight up and you have a a call call spread a short call or a call spread connected with anything else. If you have a short call in the money that's of the dividend which I know is a big sentence you run the risk of assignment.

[2:51:21] So in layman's terms if you have a short call that's in the money see how much the dividend is and then look at the corresponding put. If the corresponding meaning if the corresponding put is less than the amount of the extrinsic value

[2:51:34] >> right because the call buyer is going to want to exercise early to capture the >> correct correct >> so I mean it makes it's it's very know I have some I have some trades right now that are running into that

[2:51:47] the divate not that I'm sure call spreads I'm sure put spreads so I'm not spreads I'm sure put spreads so I'm not worried about that per se um but I know that the market is you know the I'm also getting under 21 days to expiration. So,

[2:51:59] when I can. I try not to have trades expire on non-farm payroll days or Fed meeting days or dividend days. Just avoid it, >> right? Why why why mess with it? And if you stay at that 21 days till

[2:52:12] expiration, if that's kind of your rule of thumb, you shouldn't really be in in still maintain its value. It's it's when you have something that's expiring you have something that's expiring typically unless the dividend is huge.

[2:52:24] >> Liz, this is a great question to end this. Um, well, sometimes IV is elevated on a stock that has barely moved in weeks. That feels like free money, which usually means it isn't. What's the catch when high IV shows up on a stock that's

[2:52:37] going nowhere? >> Uh, there's something going on. The or I. So, if there's high implied volatility somewhere, it's waiting on something. I mean, I'm I mean, I'm just going to give one like random example.

[2:52:51] You'll notice in a lot of your retailers, they have retail sales which have there's a number that comes out and so you'll see a little bit of implied numbers, but it's not really marked anywhere. So the there is something

[2:53:05] that's coming out or you know you you look at you know your u drug names like Bristol Myers or things of that nature and they're elevated because they're on they're on the precipice of releasing a yes or a no on a drug. So even though

[2:53:18] there's no earnings coming up or it hasn't barely moved, the stock market is that volatility if something is happening. >> So when I when I see volatility going up on a stock that's been coiling and I

[2:53:30] because I still I have not gone over getting a three on that AP physics exam all those years ago. Um I [laughter] I I I'm not looking that as like oh free and nothing that's moving. It's like no that's a spring that's coiling. It's

[2:53:43] >> Something is happening. something is around the corner. Um, rare, I can't stock coiling, coiling, coiling and volatility is up and all of a sudden volatility just falls flat and the stock doesn't do anything. I mean, it happens,

[2:53:58] >> but I can't think of that many times with any big names where that's occurred the stock price doesn't move all that much. So, um, you know, spoiling spring, right? It's potential energy being stored. Which way it's going to go, who

[2:54:13] define risk, of course. But if it starts to get directional coming out of a I don't step in front of that. That's like, oh, we're breaking out. Something to fade this move. If I if it's going up, short put spreads because we can

[2:54:28] defined target to the upside or vice versa. If it's breaking down, short call >> I like your I like your coiled spring will forever make me think of you [laughter] >> I hope so. Actually, one of uh one of

[2:54:42] the guys who lives down the street from me here now works at the the high school physics professor. Do >> you live right by where you grew up? town, the town next door, but it is the same school district speaking.

[2:54:57] to have all the same like food that I really liked growing up, which is nice. There used to be this card store called Staggers on the corner where like CEO and smoking like cigarellas and we'd go buy baseball cards there, Pokemon

[2:55:12] >> maybe that's where a few of us learned how to gamble ourselves. And now it's replaced by this very nice olive oil store, but it's just not the same vibe. >> Aren't you happy that your kids don't have to go into the Skevie vibe and they

[2:55:27] can go buy nice artisal olive oil? >> No. [laughter] No. Oh, they need a place to learn how to play dice and buy baseball cards. >> very important. >> All right. Uh S&P here is flatlining.

[2:55:40] The NASDAQ is too. The excitement from overnight has dissipated here. We have up after hours. Of course, we have App Love and there's a few other things along the way. Accidental uh eBay if that's the cut of your jib. Liz, uh

[2:55:53] coming up here all day long on the network. Of course, we have Gus and Arrol coming up next here. And then we get into our trades of the day segments uh for a full hour before we get into futures power hour or half hour live

[2:56:06] trading with TP from the practice with Dr. Jim Tim Knight. Uh last call and Tasty Live. >> Sounds good. All right. around. Brief break. More live trading coming up next.

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[3:00:10] >> Investors Business Daily raves about us. Stockbrokers.com says we're best in class for future trading. And broker chooser thinks we're pretty great, too. chooser thinks we're pretty great, too. So, what else can we say other than

[3:00:23] trade like a trader? [music] Tasty trade. to Risk and Reward live from the SIBO floor which is lively today. Let me tell

[3:00:38] you, we are at all-time highs and the word I keep hearing is buy from the wonderful co-host Daryl Coleman. Daryl, how you feeling? What's going on? I know SpaceX earnings like I was talking about this morning, SpaceX

[3:00:50] earnings is so disappointing. I mean, you're getting crushed every single day after IPO and then we get to get we get a gap down after beating earnings, I think it was. So, I mean, if that just doesn't show, you know, kind of how uh

[3:01:02] month or two? >> Yeah. Yeah. Just Yeah. Huge huge selloff. We actually initially when when just the numbers came out, we saw a But then as soon as they started talking, uh things really fell apart on

[3:01:15] them. I I joked this morning about how they they said, "Oh yeah, we we spent three times more money than everybody expected to.$18.4 billion in capex this it's rocket science or something. I don't know, but you got to spend a lot

[3:01:27] of money. Uh, but they did so much spending that that really drove things because the way Elon tried to save it is he said, "We're going to be doing a trillion dollars a year in revenue by 2030 now, not 2031 as previously

[3:01:40] >> Yeah. So, usually we're talking about updating, you know, the the full year the next year. Elon is updating the projections for four years from now, moving the moving the 1 trillion a year revenue timeline up from 2031 to 2030.

[3:01:54] >> it was already a lofty goal at 31. Out 30. I mean, you you got the pressure on >> yeah. And I don't know really what could have changed between IPO and now to make that the case, but it's yeah, it's it's the situation that we're in. I don't

[3:02:07] so we'll see what comes with SpaceX. But yeah, obviously quite a sad run IPO >> It was it was disappointing to say the least. Uh I mean I I was hoping for a little bit of a recovery in SpaceX. It was looking really good yesterday. I

[3:02:22] almost a h 100red bucks. I think that's the most on a daily basis we were up on another 100. Was just like, all right, we keep moving how we were moving on SpaceX. We still got 16 days left till expiration, so we'll let that one ride.

[3:02:35] the market. Not only that, we've seen SPY at alltime highs. We see NASDAQ just below all-time highs. And I think this is still one of the larger divergences right now. And I know right now NASDAQ, we're finally getting a little bit of a

[3:02:48] pullback. Is this going to be where we finally start to consolidate for a going to continue into the end of the well. Um so not to say we might see a reversal, but it'll be interesting to

[3:03:01] little bit because Monday and Tuesday was crazy. >> Um so looking forward to it. Getting a little bit of a pullback in NASDAQ right now. Uh we were able to take some shorts near the high of this move today, which

[3:03:13] we were able to snag a couple hundred bucks out of that. That was really nice because as you guys know, I was pretty bullish on oil and I had that oil contract on. I stopped out of that yesterday and I didn't manage my risk as

[3:03:27] woke up yesterday morning. I was down about 150 bucks and I saw it right there and I should have cut the trade and I didn't. It ended up turning into a $330 twice [laughter] from what we were down on uh in yesterday morning and then we

[3:03:43] repositioned near the lows on oil last night or I think it was early this morning. I can't even remember. Um and we got a better entry and now um it's breathing room and it's nice to see the green on the trade but it's like we

[3:03:55] would have already been in the green overall this week on oil specifically if bit better and I didn't wait a little bit longer. Um, but sometimes whenever end up you end up coming out with a larger loss sometimes. And that's

[3:04:08] night. So, a little bit more volatility on oil, we reposition. We'll talk about nice to also finance a little bit of that risk with the micro uh NASDAQ position that we took today. So, that's what's new in the portfolio. SpaceX is

[3:04:22] but we were able to scalp a little bit of the micro NASDAQ. Tons of volatility. >> Yeah. Yeah, it is. It is a lot to do. Um, yeah, I went ahead and and exited my uh S&P Iron Condor this morning. Uh, I've been been tracking that one pretty

[3:04:36] was saying yesterday. I was willing to hold through all the pain yesterday and Uh, when we opened back at the highs today, it scared me off enough to get uh since the beginning of the day. We are still net up on the day, 0.12% on

[3:04:50] S&P right now, so uh essentially unched. But yeah, I decided that it just wasn't envelope at these elevated levels. It feels like the bullish momentum is is extent of of the draw down that we're able to produce after the two days that

[3:05:05] much higher. So, I'm content to get that neutral bias out of the equation, even against a lot of the long delta I have going on already. Uh and and move on to >> Yeah. And not to mention NASDAQ hasn't even made it up to its all-time high

[3:05:19] upside. I don't know. >> Yeah. Yeah, and you bring out you bring know I've talked a lot over the past couple of weeks and as has Chris Veio about how RSP the equal weighted S&P 500 has been outpacing uh regular S&P as the

[3:05:32] rotation out of tech and into other uh smaller cap and and retail names and and things has come into play. Uh we are seeing that uh turn turn the other way today as as tech begins to recover as as this rally comes in uh through the tech

[3:05:45] sector. Uh RSP down 0.4% today while SPX hanging just slightly up. So that's uh a good a good reminder why the S&P 500 the the regular S&P 500 is not equal into those strong growers uh you know more heavily than than some of those

[3:06:00] >> Well it is whenever you pull up RS it it just it it reframes your perspective on the overall market sometimes. So it is definitely helpful little bit of a an eye on it that uptrend sustains. >> Talk about the overall market. This is

[3:06:13] probably the better lens to look at it. We we we we never do, but when we whole market is doing and we mean the whole market, not not you know what the about are doing, RSP is definitely the vehicle for that. But yeah, being the

[3:06:26] >> What companies do we care about the most? What do what would you say? What would you say? >> I mean, Mag 7 tech more broadly. >> Top three. Yeah. Uh involv [clears throat]

[3:06:47] don't know. I think you need a a non a tech name in there that's not so the default choice there right now is Apple. Uh, which which continues to work higher and higher. Apple managed to completely skip the sell-off altogether.

[3:07:00] >> Yeah, bad earnings report pulled them down a little bit and pretty much today, but Apple continues to stay super elevated. I haven't checked the rankings some companies pass each other here? Let me find out. Yeah, it's it's interesting

[3:07:13] because some of these names feel like they kind of slide into irrelevant got names like Microsoft gapping up off of earnings and then seeing a straight it's one of the biggest movers when it was just low. It will lull you to sleep

[3:07:26] were seeing because it was dead. It was quiet. Nothing was happening in there. >> Yeah. Yeah. We're back to back to Nvidia's king now at 5.3 trillion market cap. Apple did eclipse 5 trillion market cap for a second there at the highs. It

[3:07:39] sunk back to 4.5 even. Google has passed them again. So one, two, three is Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple in order. Uh Microsoft coming in below them. Then obviously the Amazon's Broadcoms of the world drowning out the list. But TSM

[3:07:52] >> I wouldn't have guessed that one. I didn't think TSM would would be top 10. I think it would be relevant. Maybe 15 16, but number six ahead of Broadcom, ahead of SpaceX, ahead of Meta, >> Tesla, Samsung. So didn't see that one

[3:08:05] you name it. TSM uh quickly quickly climbing up these ranks. uh clean pass Broadcom by about $150 billion dollars now. So yeah, uh TSM these the the semi the semi trade is is back. We we we didn't like AI trade for two weeks and

[3:08:18] >> bro, I was saying nobody's having a worse day than Leopold. I mean imagine >> imagine getting liquidated. There we go. Imagine getting liquidated >> Is that actually? >> Yeah. Yeah. That to my understanding

[3:08:34] that happened. That was his wedding day also. So yeah, just relative, right? Because that's still pretty a pretty good situation, you know, but I mean from what you just came from, I mean that's that's a stink.

[3:08:47] Citadel just reported that July was their best month in history after after that I think was up like 6% or something like that. Yeah. So nobody's having a not even dogging on him. He's he's going to be he's going to create something

[3:08:59] head on his shoulders. To even be in that position to have the opportunity to fall like that, I mean really says something. Oh yeah, it's what I it's overtime with Eko yesterday, but yeah, it's like a it's like being a a head

[3:09:13] know. It's like if you if you win if you win one Super Bowl, if you win one NBA keep bouncing around. He might even fail upward a few more times. How these

[3:09:25] That's >> And honestly, you know what? I I respect the guy just failing. You know, you you could you could go Sam Bankman free route and do all this crap to line your pockets and uh defraud all these people,

[3:09:37] white collar crimes. He failed like a man. So, >> Yes. >> Shout out to Sam Brinkman Freud or >> I think uh SPF and and Diddy are cellmates is the deal.

[3:09:50] that was conspiracy or if that might >> They're definitely all on the same of that prison. >> They could create a little a little uh >> Yeah. Yeah, they could. They could they got they got plenty of money ramen some

[3:10:03] pay but they basically got a slap on the wrist so he's he's got money to trade. there. No uh volatility right now trading at 1630. Uh we we had seen a little bit of an expansion in volatility

[3:10:16] this morning but we're kind of coming back into 1630 now. Um so it doesn't not very fearful yet. Again with the markets being at alltime highs. I know that we're getting this week. even if if we even want to call it a pullback, but

[3:10:29] market. And uh it doesn't seem like the market is is fearful at all. I think shrugging off most of the quote unquote negative news that we've been hearing had a pretty big pullback in oil

[3:10:42] get repositioned in that one. We'll talk about that later today. Uh but oil This is a daily chart, but if we zoom into the fivem minute on the intraday, opened up slid back to the downside a little bit more. had a little bit of a

[3:10:56] it kind of seems like oil is trying to figure out what it wants to do right that one. >> For sure. For sure. Yeah. Oil. This is This is just a tough spot. I should have never touched it. I I I regret it. I was

[3:11:09] losing. I created another loser for myself. Uh oil. I don't want anything to it. I'll keep an eye on it. I I'll use it as a vehicle to determine what the going to I'm going to sit on the sidelines with oil for a little while.

[3:11:22] one. It's one of the most ramb I'm going to use rambunctious. It's one of the most rambunctious products I think you can trade in the market. I mean, you don't want to get into a new relationship till you've completely

[3:11:34] You're going to you're going to project that onto the next one. I think such is don't want to get into another oil trade until I fully processed all these things so that my relationship with the

[3:11:46] >> So, what you're saying is you don't want to carry the emotion from a past dictate or influence >> your next move like just like a >> I like anything. I I mean I could I could do a hundred analogies like this,

[3:11:59] memory helps you in in this business for sure. in the chat? Good to see all of you. Nice boy. Ranch, Destiny's Darker. Uh who else we got? Organic farming. Pleasure to see all of you. Uh yeah, my

[3:12:12] the USO trip trade open as well. Yeah, as do I. Uh, you know, it was it was a I put it on. If if I wind up taking it on the chin, it is what it is. Uh, we can lose those $80 and keep it moving. Uh, but fortunately, the swing I took on

[3:12:27] exactly as planned to this point. Started off a little bit. I'll win one that's what we're what we're seeing play out on Palunteer here. Um, whole logic hard for a company to log a second straight green day after like after a

[3:12:41] day like Palanteer had yesterday. It's trading up 30%. Uh and we we find that to be the case here as well. Currently pinned at about 160 I was saying 162 and historical resistance going on on Palanteer. Uh we saw that manifest uh la

[3:12:55] yesterday into the close uh closed yesterday at uh 16266. So pretty strong at that 16250 level. Uh this morning we tested as high as uh 1660 before kicking

[3:13:07] the spot that we're in for Palanteer. Again, we just need this one to close Again, we just need this one to close below 165 uh by Friday. So, uh like in like in this spot and like I was saying yesterday, I think that this little blip

[3:13:19] this down enough. We're now talking about being a little over 3% away from that 165 level. If we close down 2% today, I feel content here. This is >> This is the loudest it's I've never heard anything like this before. And

[3:13:35] chaos. It's a skill. I was I was tactically explaining it through the once I finished my explanation, had to had to draw some attention. "Did you hear that? I can't even hear you." No.

[3:13:47] room on that trade. It looks like we had a pretty nice pullback from what 166 now trading at 160. And it seems like from where that pullback started, uh that's below. So, some nice breathing room on the to start the day on Palance here for

[3:14:00] big day. A lot of these trades, you know, anytime you do anything short with these weeklies, getting the first day right is so important. Like I feel so much better right now having this down 1.5%. We were already testing those

[3:14:13] situation. But now we only need this thing to go for two more days. And I green day. It can move up two and a half% and not burn us now. So feeling a lot better about the position that we're in. Um we uh Oh, hello from Germany says

[3:14:28] Sandis earnings? Well, Max, if you're the worst predictor of SanDisk on the face of this beautiful planet Earth. I have gotten every single SanDisk trade I've made throughout this entire wrong

[3:14:41] run wrong. I'm 0 for four. That said, with that being said, with that said, I don't know. I think I think SanDisk prospects are okay. I sandisk, you know, these these memory companies often, let me start over. often when companies are

[3:14:55] as as elevated as overextended as as we're we're talking about with with in the same run. Even now, you know, amid this sell-off, everybody's, oh, you know, so SanDisk is down $1,000 from the highs. Yeah, guys, it was a $40 stock 18

[3:15:09] months ago, so let's let's, you know, hone in our our expectations for SanDisk runs like this, I say I want to fade the run into earnings. I say, "Oh, well, possibly do to make this seem so much better that they can actually make

[3:15:22] considerably more upside? But the caveat comes in with these memory companies because the way that these revenues are so insane right now, I feel that it's hard to predict order flow, future guidance. Demand is through the roof. I

[3:15:36] SanDisk can say something surprising whether that be about the previous quarter or about what they're looking uh at ahead into the future. Future AI space right now anyway. And if SanDisk say they could match match

[3:15:49] revenue EPS, but if they say we're double our backlog expectations, that sends them flying because the these this backlog this people are memory is in are signing contracts with these memory companies saying we will buy memory from

[3:16:02] you for the next two years at any price. That that's literally how this is the next two years if you will please please please just sell us some precious memory. So, when you're talking about a demand curve that looks like that, I I

[3:16:15] prospects to surprise. So, all of that said, I don't think I'm going to trade it myself, I don't think. I am tempted, but I don't think just because of how poisoned I am by a Sandis cut back to my relationship analogy that I just made.

[3:16:27] I'm not healed from my previous Sandis trades yet, but I do have a long bias on >> 100%. I know these have been a doozy. I know I have the Micron trade on right making over the last few weeks, whenever one of these memory companies have

[3:16:40] like a micro earnings for the product that you're trading that's within the same industry or that that basket of stocks like Micron, Sandis, Intel, and to see the earnings and I'm excited to see the response from the market. Uh, I

[3:16:53] don't have too much of a bias, but I think uh we're we're at a pretty pretty to continue to see the downtrend or are we going to pop back to the upside a lot of volatility out there. >> Uh yeah, Western Digital also reports

[3:17:07] for giving Western Digital some love. I always say it. We talked about Sandrisk Seagate. >> WDC. >> What's the other one that I'm forgetting? Not Samsung. Oh, SKHX is

[3:17:20] They don't get forgotten though. Justice for Western Digital and Seagate. >> Uh yeah. No, it looks like uh Western Digital Consolidated looking very similar to Micron Standis, all those other names right now. Um, but before we

[3:17:34] we want to take a quick look at? SK Highix you just mentioned. Do you >> SKHY. >> You'll get that sometime. at this point. If I didn't get it now, I don't know if I ever will. But

[3:17:47] >> Um, and that lets you know I haven't even actually taken a look at this one looking like it's looking a little bit better than the IPO of SpaceX. I think SpaceX just had so much hype. um because we've headed in one direction on SpaceX

[3:18:00] we've seen a little bit more consolidation. We've seen a little bit more two-sided action here. So, trading at 154 right now. Uh you know, SpaceX. So, I just got assigned 200 shares of TLT right now. Right here,

[3:18:14] right now on this show. It happens to me too, people. I'm trying to I'm trying to the thing just popped up that I got assigned on these. So, uh currently flux. We're going to be fine. I have such long bias on TLT. I'll just hold

[3:18:28] these till 85. We're going to be fine. But I got to lick the put side of this. little bit of a bounce, too. So, if I had to be on one side of the market on the long side. I know I know Chris disagrees with that. I got his thoughts

[3:18:41] market. We'll see what happens. >> Yeah. How much? considerably. It's okay. It's going to be fine. We're going to be fine. TLT is bonds drop, they're a buy. Okay. Hey, we're going to be fine.

[3:18:56] >> No, that's funny. >> Oh my goodness. Uh Don popping in chat. all of you special people. >> Um Arrow, that spy short call spread

[3:19:08] mark. >> Oh, you had a spy short call spread. >> Uh I might have taken that one off a few days ago there. Uh was it Mike? >> Ranch. No, I I think I took that one off quite a bit ago. What do we have on in

[3:19:22] gears? I sold a >> I have no QQQ. I have no uh spy right now. Uh what did I do over there? I think I had taken some off yesterday. Let me see. Let me double check. Uh looking over here at the options chain,

[3:19:36] we got out of our out of the money call spread on QQQ. We closed that one 84. So we closed that one yesterday at about 8:30 a.m. Uh and then after that, we took some more trades earlier that day that we got out of for about break even.

[3:19:49] Um but yeah, as of now, no QQ, no spy in the portfolio. Uh, but quickly, I know we're kind of running out of time here. Just want to look at what the NASDAQ getting a little bit more of a sell off right now. It'll be interesting to see

[3:20:02] know one of our more prominent levels we're trading at right now. We don't of our value area lows right now. So, point right now if we're going to get a continuation to the downside or if we

[3:20:15] we get a little bit a little bit of a reversal, I could see us at least trading to 29,905. But with that being said, this morning we got a lot of action off of the uh micro NASDAQ this morning off of our

[3:20:28] value area high. The markets were so extremely volatile. It was a little bit bit tough to sit through, but we got short a couple contracts near our value area high. As we began to pop towards another high, I took off one contract

[3:20:41] because I really wanted to manage my risk, especially considering the past, especially considering the oil trade. >> Feel those scars, man. [laughter] Considering the oil trade now I I am considering the oil trade from yesterday

[3:20:53] out on two or three contracts considering the fact that I got out of a red trade on oil yesterday so that was the whole idea about uh the initial stop out on one of the contracts over here but we were left with one contract

[3:21:07] risking the high of the day. Uh so we would have stopped out if we made higher more selling come into the market started to consolidate a little bit more and then we stairstepped lower and then we covered near the morning lows. Uh we

[3:21:20] Sometimes you can kind of kick yourself because you're like well if I held a extra 20 point move, 40 point move that would have covered the entire oil mindset can trap you in some type of trade sometimes and uh, you might get

[3:21:34] loss and then you're going to be wishing uh, you would have got out of your position when it offered the window of opportunity to do so. So, that was the micro NASDAQ. Lastly, I just kind of want to show you the positioning that we

[3:21:46] to the oil charts, I have a stop loss and okay, I was like, did I get stopped set the stop and I come back on the I rather have the stops in there just in case. We're up about 124 right now on

[3:21:59] micro crude oil. So from the gains today and what we're up right now on micro crude oil, we've recovered the $330 loss that happened on oil earlier this week, last night we were looking to reposition, right? So we had gotten long

[3:22:15] on oil. Let me put this on a fiveminute chart. I apologize, but like this this what is this maniac on the 15-second chart for? Uh but if we go over here to micro crew, just bear with me. Bear with me now. Bear with me. Now, if we look

[3:22:29] over here on micro crude, this is where we were initially looking to get long, right? So, we get long down here. Uh, what's that? What's that? >> Chad's making me laugh. One of us is having a mic issue right now. Okay. But

[3:22:43] they're they're comparing it to rain, calling it ASMR. Nice. Nice and >> Send your rain west. Yeah. Apologies, guys. I We're working to resolve this >> Yeah, we got you. We got you. Uh but no, the the tables turned so quickly on

[3:22:56] crude oil, right? We were long at about 79 flat. Uh we get up to about 82 and a within an hour, taking out those gains. And this is where I should have stopped out in the morning, but I held a little bit longer. I saw the opportunity to get

[3:23:09] stop down at the lows. Didn't do that. We stairstepped lower, got into a deeper at the lows. And once we got a little bit more of a reversal, we went ahead and got long again on oil down at about 7551.

[3:23:24] Got stopped out for about 12 bucks. We sold off to another low. And that's when we went to get long at 7433. So if we breach 7422, which would be a new low in that downtrend on oil, I'm going to stop

[3:23:37] about $11 loss. That would sting a little bit. We're up about 115 right we'll let the we'll give the trade room to breathe. give room uh give the trade manage risk as we do. So, with that being said, that was the micro NASDAQ

[3:23:51] being said, that was the micro NASDAQ micro crude oil and uh do you have your uh >> yeah your mind on an interesting uh you know bit bit of psychology you you just lightly dove into there of like you know

[3:24:04] mitigating your risk on NASDAQ because you just got burnt so bad on CL. Yeah. have a 20-minute conversation about this, but in the two that we have, uh, know, because there would definitely be a school of thought of, oh, every trade

[3:24:18] because you got burned on one, that risk off on the next. Uh, but at the same time, sometimes that that that oil taking a little too much risk in general. Like, I need to chill out a

[3:24:32] you balance that? Would you say that there's obviously you think that there's doing, but is there just never change your size? right. I mean, I think we should kind of treat each trade independent of one or

[3:24:46] the other. I think it really comes down to a personal where your personal emotional level is at right now, right? Like I think yeah, maybe size up a little bit um if you can still execute with a clear mind. Um, but I don't know

[3:24:59] if I I don't know if I uh if I if I got that question just right there, Gus. Did fair assessment. It's just Yeah. Just something I wanted to highlight. to tow because there is absolutely uh credence to both and it's just about

[3:25:14] >> It is 100% because at the same time it's like now we might be able to recover off that position because we're up over 100 bucks on oil, but we didn't allow that bit triggery and not take the next opportunity. So it's definitely a fine

[3:25:27] >> Yeah, it's a good point. >> Absolutely. But we are about at our time waiting in the wings to join us next. So we will not stand in front of her any longer. That's going to be all from myself and Arrol at the SIBO today.

[3:25:41] appreciate it and never take it for granted. Aron will be back here same time, same place tomorrow, 12:00 noon. Sorry, 12:00 noon. I did the old time, man. Blast from the past. 10:30 a.m. Central Standard Time. Be sure to come

[3:25:54] great interview coming up next. We'll see you guys next time.

[3:26:08] and I've got some bad news. Let's get that bad news out of the way first. You are going to have some losing trades. Like every trade you place, despite your extreme optimism that it's going to work out, it's not going to [music] work out.

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[3:26:36] crash course all about rolling. So, I will see you [music] inside of episode number one.

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[3:28:10] futures, too. The Mly Pool really likes us and so does broker chooser. So, what else can we say other than [screaming] trade like a trader, tasty trade, make your move.

[3:28:32] trading trends. We have an excellent guest here today because the charts are certainly beginning to evolve, so to CNBC before. She's the CEO and founder of Fairleaf Strategies based out of well

[3:28:45] Greenwich, Connecticut. It's Katie Stockton. Welcome to Tasty Live. with you all. >> So, right now we have a day where the S&P 500 was pushing new highs. The markets come in a little bit here today,

[3:28:58] because new highs attract momentum and they force underinvested traders to rough two months here. When you see the does your work say? confirmation of the

[3:29:12] bull trend or is this a market that needs more digestion after what's been a >> Well, I I would definitely emphasize confirmation as something that we're looking for from the market because with any kind of breakout, you want to see it

[3:29:26] hold on to it for more than a day and it is brand new indeed. As of yesterday, the S&P cleared final resistance which is right around 7620. So assuming we get a solid close above that level today and and ideally in the upper half of today's

[3:29:41] range that will confirm a short-term breakout and like you said new highs are generally bullish and tend to foster additional upside momentum when you have a breakout especially from a range. And the good news from that is that we could

[3:29:56] see a nice recovery from the areas of the market that did lead on the downside in July, which of course was a pretty rough month for much of technology. >> July was an awful month uh for the month of technology. Uh July usually being a

[3:30:11] good month for the market seasonally speaking. I know a lot of folks went into July thinking 11 for 11, what could go wrong? What went wrong last month in why were we able to snap back so quickly here at the start of August?

[3:30:25] >> Well, it does seem somewhat headline driven and the charts will never really unfortunately, but it certainly will tell you what is happening in terms of the dynamics between supply and demand and market sentiment, which are really

[3:30:39] truly the driving forces after all. But in July, I think what we saw was just the first notable loss of momentum in months. And what we were using at the time to measure that, it actually started to roll over ahead of the

[3:30:53] corrective action in July was the 20-day moving average, a really simple trend falling device. They started to roll over the 20 days on a short-term basis for the likes of semiconductor stocks which had exhibited upside leadership.

[3:31:07] So I think it was the loss of momentum, which is pretty much the obvious takeaway, right? but also the loss of leadership and relative performance from the AI trade which we knew was so important to market sentiment. And then

[3:31:20] of course it gets exacerbated by the fact that these are high beta stocks some of them very much unproven companies and the retracements could be really dramatic in that kind of scenario. But even for the large cap

[3:31:34] growth names that are uh very solid companies something like Okornium for example had really really extreme retracements and with that of course now we have an oversold condition and that could be contributing to the rebound

[3:31:48] >> When we think about this deterioration in momentum obviously momentum can continue a very long time in a healthy market. It can stay overbought right now. When momentum doesn't continue to the upside and the market's making new

[3:32:00] highs, it usually catches my attention. Has momentum officially reignited from >> On a short-term basis, we do have some bullish crossovers, but that's on the daily charts. On the weekly charts, it's a little bit um confused right now in

[3:32:15] that we had a loss of momentum that was pretty meaningful. We even have some negative divergences out there in the weekly um momentum indicators, things weekly um momentum indicators, things like the MACD indicator. But this rally

[3:32:27] has the potential to give way to a whipsaw. So whips saws are really pretty rare when it comes to these smoothed market timing devices. And they just course what we're doing right now to this breakout deciding whether it's real

[3:32:43] after today or tomorrow's trading. And with the whips saw you can see immediate upside followthrough, but it often isn't a lasting development. They tend to sometimes fail pretty quickly. So, we're looking at this, if the breakout's

[3:32:56] confirmed, as we would expect, >> to be more of a short to intermediate term development that's bullish as opposed to something that means, okay, well, we have the cyclical uptrend entering a new leg.

[3:33:09] >> Yeah. One of the particularities of this market throughout the month of June and July was the fact that you didn't really have a breakdown in the broader markets. The NASDAQ obviously had some trouble at the headline index level. SMH was

[3:33:21] underwater, but when you looked at something like RSP, the equal weighted, it kept just grinding higher. I I know that Fairle now has a new uh sector tactical ETF, TACK here, which is effectively equal weighted as well. U

[3:33:34] why have why is this an important signal for traders to pay attention to? I feel like sometimes when I talk to some of my co-workers, you see the Russell and RSP holding up, not a bad sign for the broader markets. Calm down. I get these

[3:33:46] funny faces. Well, it is really interesting because we saw a positive divergence for those equal weight proxies including RSP, including TAC proxies including RSP, including TAC with the S&P in July. So, we saw new

[3:33:59] highs from TAC and we didn't see that new high yet from the S&P 500. And that's an environment in which we have sector rotation that we're honestly not accustomed to of late, right? We've had very concentrated leadership from

[3:34:13] very concentrated leadership from technology. But thankfully because when technology lost the leadership stronghold that it had there were other sectors to kind of pull up some of that slack and that's why you saw the equal

[3:34:26] weight proxies generally grind higher even to new highs as the S&P 500 kind of floundered with its big tech heavy exposure. I think it ranges up to 34 35%

[3:34:38] of the index and of course equal weight proxies are much different in how they're balanced. So it was interesting the breath was actually pretty healthy throughout it. So that was a contributing factor. There are other

[3:34:50] sectors that have some size to them. Uh financials for one actually had some relative performance that seems to be fading a bit. So we do track that the sector rotations very closely. And we usually expect technology to outperform

[3:35:06] when we're in these early stage rallies. And we focus on it for a loss of momentum as well when we think things are fading. leadership because it can kind of tell you where you are in the economic cycle

[3:35:19] in in the bull bear cycle if you will. Some things perform better than others leadership is saying one thing. I can think of staples and the way that retail may be saying another. What sector is giving you the cleanest read on

[3:35:34] leadership right now? And I asked that almost perhaps as a two-part question. I recall last year watching CNBC, Bloomberg, etc. And so much of the complaining about the market was it was all concentrated in the MAG 7. This year

[3:35:48] for the broader indexes. So who's really in charge right now? >> Well, it it like I said during like up markets it tends to be technology, but that's of course not been the case. So

[3:36:00] during the corrective period we saw the best rel relative performance from financials from healthcare for some segments of it from energy energy was the best performing sector in TAC in July uh up I think more than 12% for

[3:36:16] obvious reasons right with the crude oil influence and headlines. So there's a sort of a a tugofwar I think in a way sometimes between energy and technology uh just based on the headlines. So, so that might determine um you know how

[3:36:31] long lasting tech relative performance is and and how long lasting perhaps also the immediate upside followthrough that we've seen from this breakout will be uh we're mostly equal weight the sectors because we feel that there's a

[3:36:47] transition underway. So technology has lost upside momentum in a pretty meaningful way when you compare it to the S&P 500. So, while we would expect short-term upside leadership from the breakout, we would also expect that loss

[3:37:02] of momentum to give way to much choppier um second part of the year. So, we're not looking for that same concentrated upside leadership to persist in the way it did off of the April or sort of March April low period. So, it'll be

[3:37:17] interesting to see how it unfolds. Uh we're also at the moment not looking for substantial outperformance from the likes of consumers or REITs or utilities. Uh they might do a little bit better with with yields poised to pull

[3:37:31] back, but that doesn't mean you can't find some great setups in absolute performance, that's one thing, but there's a lot of nice looking charts out there. And with this up move over the past week or so, we do have a lot of

[3:37:47] breakouts as you'd imagine from a bottomup perspective. Amgen would be one that I just stumbled on today as having a breakout pending confirmation that's pretty clean on the chart. So, it'll be interesting to see if these are

[3:38:01] interesting to see if these are confirmed. The MAG 7 has kicked back in also over the past couple of weeks and it seems to be less instilled by topdown macro forces and and more about their earnings and the reaction

[3:38:15] >> to their earnings reports. So we're constructive on most of the mega caps not all of them um somewhat for different reasons from a technical perspective. as an example, Microsoft has a breakout whereas uh Alphabet has

[3:38:29] an oversold upturn on its weekly chart. So different setups uh but both positive from a technical perspective. >> So when we're practicing this uh as technicians, right? I'm not a CMT, but I've I have the John Murphy uh book

[3:38:44] I've read it almost monthly for the past 15 years. Um I I think of the idea that we try to be agnostic to what's on our screen here. A chart is a chart is a chart. But when we think about the risks that are coming up here, we have the Fed

[3:38:58] have midterm elections coming up. How does that calculation the next few months? >> Well, we are more neutral in our longer months >> and it's not about the forthcoming

[3:39:15] events that you cite. Uh for us it's really from a technical perspective in that we have on the monthly bar charts you can see this secular and cyclical bull trends are very much intact for the major indices but there are some

[3:39:30] indicators that show signs of upside exhaustion doesn't mean we move into a bare cycle but it does likely mean that we have a more choppy environment ahead and and July and and to some degree June might be the beginnings of that. So we

[3:39:45] are looking for more choppiness, more volatility for the second half of this year. We think it's already begun and a lot of that comes from those signs of upside exhaustion. We're using the demark indicators to that end.

[3:40:00] >> But you can also just look at the prolonged overbought reading and trust that perhaps you know the the stochastics as a down tick for the NASDAQ 100 that might become an issue. So, not necessarily an imminent issue

[3:40:13] for the market, but something that differentiates it from the earlier stages of the cyclical bull. >> Sure. Before we go, and I do have one notice on a day like today, gold is finally starting to get its groove back

[3:40:25] finally starting to get its groove back here, whereas Bitcoin is still somewhat in this tape right now. It's up half a percent uh here. I I know that you guys have also likewise launched a new uh Bitcoin ETF, BNAV, here. Why is Bitcoin

[3:40:39] having so much difficulty trying to capitalize this on this environment whereas gold may not be? It is actually facing a little bit of a lighter step in its shoes these days. >> Yeah. So there's stabilization I would

[3:40:52] argue for both. For gold the bullish action over the last really two days is somewhat promising. It has a relief rally. it seems underway that could persist. But at the same time, gold did break down recently below uh what we

[3:41:07] call our cloud model. So Ichimoku for those that are tracking it more closely. And uh that suggests that gold has entered maybe a more prolonged down cycle. And that with that in mind, we'd view the relief rally as counter trend.

[3:41:22] For Bitcoin, it's a bit different, but it has been bumping along the bottom. important support for Bitcoin goes from about 58,000 to 60,000. It has been holding that level longer term. And if you look at the monthly gauges, there

[3:41:36] certainly are some signs of improvement to suggest that we might have a basing to suggest that we might have a basing phase underway. Our Bitcoin ETF NAV is tactical. So, we're taking uh a greater position when the momentum is at its

[3:41:49] best across time horizons. and we don't have that quite yet, but the way it's setting up, it looks like we could be using that leverage soon. conversation. I always love having someone on the network who likes to talk

[3:42:02] chalk, so hopefully we can have you back again some point in the future. Uh, she's been Katie Stockton, the CEO and founder of Fairlead Strategies. Uh, you Bloomberg. I've seen her around quite a bit over the past year, so it's a

[3:42:14] person. >> Same here, Chris. Take care. Thank you. We're going to keep this train moving. We have to check in with our friend Tom Preston as we keep going here with some live trading TP. Uh I believe that we

[3:42:28] to take a quick 30 second break. Tom Preston, you're watching Tasty Live.

[3:42:43] and I've got some bad news. Let's get that bad news out of the way first. you are going to have some losing trades. Like every trade you place, despite your extreme optimism that it's going to work out, it's not going to work out. That's

[3:42:57] the bad news. The good news, the good news is at Tasty Trade, man, we are ready to adjust and defend and roll our positions if that's what it takes. And that's what this entire crash course is all about. A five episode crash course

[3:43:12] all about rolling. So, I will see you inside of episode number one.

[3:43:25] options trading. Period. Investors Business Daily raves about us. With stockbrokers.com, we're number one for options trading and best-in-class for futures, too. The mly pool really likes us and so does broker chooser. So, what

[3:43:42] else can we say other than boom? [screaming] [screaming] Trade like a trader. Tasty trade. Make Trade like a trader. Tasty trade. Make your move.

[3:44:05] ahead of us before the next break which means we have time for a quick little Preston comma Tom our very own 007 [laughter] here. I tell you, Chris, you know, we tell you, you know, what people don't hear is

[3:44:20] all the grief we get from our production team. Like, you know, it's like, "Oh, Chris, that that intro didn't work well. Oh, TP, you know, it's it's like you're doing this technical analysis, Chris. You're doing this macro stuff. You're

[3:44:35] doing an interview and they're giving you grief about a segue. I mean, really, >> out here. Hey. Um, so I want you to take a look at

[3:44:48] So obviously, you know, gold is up. You know, I heard you talking to um, uh, Katie there few minutes ago. Uh, Bitcoin's kind of flat. Look at this Bitcoin's kind of flat. Look at this divergence, though. Take a look at SLE

[3:45:09] >> Excuse me. Cattle >> versus Yeah. Ellie is live and H is >> Yeah, >> hogs is down. Well, pork is down, beef is up. I know they're different markets. I get that. Um, but yeah, the price of

[3:45:25] Even going to Costco, meat's a little bit more expensive. Pork though, I might this weekend. >> You know how much I paid for? So, uh, my

[3:45:37] full American kid thing now. She does 67. She loves taco Tuesdays. Yesterday was Tuesday, so we got the old El Paso off shell taco kit. Really classing it up around here. Uh, >> Chris, that is so New York. Okay, that

[3:45:54] >> Chris, that is so New York. Okay, that is so New York. Okay, El Paso. Taco. I sorry to a someone who's an Austin resident that's probably very it's like you go to Sabaros and being like this is America's pizza. It's like

[3:46:08] [laughter] Okay. So so uh yesterday 1.05 lbs of Okay. So so uh yesterday 1.05 lbs of 8515 ground sirloin like with the just

[3:46:21] standard ground beef that they have at the grocery store was $115. the grocery store was $115. >> Holy smokes. That's a lot. Um, was it organic, grass-fed, anything like that? >> No, just like a styrofoam tray wrapped

[3:46:34] in plastic with that little parsley, you know, there to make it look presentable. >> It's down down here outside of Austin. It's about at my at my local HB. It's about uh I want to say about $5 a pound, maybe six $6 a pound for like the like

[3:46:51] maybe six $6 a pound for like the like the prime the prime ground beef I buy. the prime the prime ground beef I buy. Um anyway, no, but the price of LE is up, H is down. I was looking at hogs today, Chris. I haven't traded Hogs in a

[3:47:06] today, Chris. I haven't traded Hogs in a while. Um and I don't know what you make while. Um and I don't know what you make of a chart of H, but it's been it's been getting whacked over the past week. >> That's a pretty ugly looking chart, but

[3:47:19] damage to the downside already. I mean, do I want to I I'm assuming you're which is why >> you you would you would assume >> you you would you would assume correctly. And the nice thing about um H

[3:47:34] and I'm looking at the nine days. I'm just looking at the 9-day expiration, Chris, because I don't necessarily want to go 45 days in this thing. to go 45 days in this thing. It has single point strikes, very very

[3:47:46] convenient. Um means I can manage my risk very very carefully. I could sell risk very very carefully. I could sell the 95 94.95, buy the 94 put, sell the

[3:47:58] the 95 94.95, buy the 94 put, sell the 95 puts, collect a 30 cent um or 75 cents or seven or excuse me, >> 7.5 cents. >> 7.5 cents. $30 $30 credit. Uh that's what

[3:48:13] $30 $30 credit. Uh that's what translates um into $30 credit for a max loss of about 370. You say, "Well, that ratio is not great." That that's almost ratio is not great." That that's almost 10% in 9 days. Um, if I were going to do

[3:48:26] 10% in 9 days. Um, if I were going to do a naked trade in there in the 95 puts, capital requirements, buying power effects about $1,400. That's a little steep. Little steep for just just a just a naked short put in there. But I would

[3:48:39] a naked short put in there. But I would do either, let's say, the 96 I would do, you know what I would do, Chris? I would sell the 96 puts by the Chris? I would sell the 96 puts by the 95s.

[3:48:53] low end of the mechanics. TP, >> why? Why? Why? Why stray? For why do you And look right here. >> Cuz I want to play. Cuz I want to play >> Cuz I want to play. Cuz I want to play in hogs. And I love pork. And you know

[3:49:06] what? It's Why? >> If you have to take if you have to take that? You'll put that? >> I'm okay with that. I could I could take down some hogs. I could take down a like a you know a a tractor trailer full of

[3:49:18] >> All right, so TP is going to sell the 96 and if anyone's interested in buying bacon business here on T. >> Seriously, I'm going to ship that and see if I get filled working. Nothing done yet. Nothing done. Um, couple of

[3:49:34] the other things I'm looking at is the grain market. grain market. Um, wheat is up a little bit. Corn down Um, wheat is up a little bit. Corn down today. Beans

[3:49:48] ZS. [sighs and gasps] Uh, beans are down too. So, I don't know what the story is with grains. Didn't have um I wasn't reading the news. I just saw these pop up on charts and thinking about maybe buying or

[3:50:03] excuse me, selling maybe selling some put spreads in ZS. That one's down a put spreads in ZS. That one's down a little bit more sharply than corn or little bit more sharply than corn or um wheat. So, looking at ZS, I don't

[3:50:18] about ZS? >> 614 IVR, but the actual volatility >> 614 IVR, but the actual volatility itself is pretty dang low here. TP 17%. Um, where's the expected move out right now? about 11:25

[3:50:33] which brings you down to here on the chart. to expiration. What is the >> Well, that's pretty far out of the money. >> Yeah, I'm going out to 51 days in the in

[3:50:49] the November expir the XX contract. See what that expected move is down here. major swing zone. So, if this thing falls a bit more, you could kind of absorb some time on your side holding above.

[3:51:03] >> So, here's here's what I'm going to do. So, first of all, this is just a just this is just taking a shot like, you know, getting long uh hogs, for example. Do I know anything about the hog market? No. Do I know why it's dumb? Not really.

[3:51:17] Um same thing with beans. I I do trade grains a lot more than I trade uh the grains a lot more than I trade uh the meats, you know, like uh live cattle and meats, you know, like uh live cattle and um uh hogs. But I'm looking at the skew

[3:51:30] um uh hogs. But I'm looking at the skew for the for soybeans. It is pointed it's pointed to the upside. Not a huge amount, but it is pointed to the upside. I'm going to sell 16 I'm going to do the 16 days. I'm going to

[3:51:45] going to do the 16 days. I'm going to buy the 1134, sell the 1136 puts, take buy the 1134, sell the 1136 puts, take in uh for 62 credit, 62 credit. That's in uh for 62 credit, 62 credit. That's max profit of $31 versus max loss of 38.

[3:51:57] So, that gets me about a third of the width of the strikes. I'm going to ship that and see if I get anything done here. Nothing done yet. Nothing done yet. >> Yeah. I mean, uh, the the one thing for

[3:52:11] the, you know, meats, grains, there was a fire in, uh, the Agriar plant in poultry and beef. >> Okay. >> Which may be a contributing factor for the upswing here in cattle prices in the

[3:52:23] short term. But that was from last week. uh that was from the 28th. So you can that that report came out. We've been kind of gliding up since then whether But there's no WASD report. There's been no

[3:52:36] >> nothing in the short term. Uh there's a website that I use dtnpf.com the uh uh progressivefarmer.com where they post all this stuff. It's Midwestern News Bureau. >> In any event, um yeah, TP I mean I don't

[3:52:50] take a look at hogs or cattle that often. I dabble in the grains from time system. >> It was actually one of the trades that we were playing right out of the gate of the Iran war was long the 650 6 I

[3:53:04] believe >> in uh in ZW. I'm pretty sure we could just quickly I just want to double check so I'm not making things up here, but ZW that was the 650 680 call spread um in uh in in ZW. So that worked out pretty

[3:53:17] uh in in ZW. So that worked out pretty nicely um when it hit. But TP uh you of the things about being a contrarian in the market is not just looking to buy low and sell high it's looking for opportunity in places where no one else

[3:53:31] is and that's usually where the alpha is contained be so why not go over to the segments of the commodity market and the futures where hasn't been much love. No, I mean, so it's and and that's an excellent point, Chris. And you know,

[3:53:47] called me yesterday, uh, producer said, "Hey, you know, Tom, can you hop on with Chris 11:15 for talk about futures?" Sure. I I trade futures pretty actively, futures options specifically. Happy to do it. Always like to talk trading

[3:53:59] anyway, but there's Chris, there's always something to trade. Okay? There's always something to do. If you're not finding in the S&Ps, if you're not finding in the mag 7, if you're not finding it in semiconductors, whatever,

[3:54:13] there's a whole bunch of futures options you can look at. If you don't see it there, now we have the prediction markets on Tasty. If you can't find it there, you know, it's there's there's always something to do. You just have to

[3:54:27] dig a little bit. And because we're active traders, Chris and I are looking always looking, as Chris pointed out, to add alpha to our portfolios. Um, speaking of rich TP, I'm going to look at something here in corn. Uh, this

[3:54:41] pretty damaged looking chart. No matter how I try to slice it, we try to recover couldn't damage. And then you see >> Chris, that is that's a cruel adjective.

[3:54:53] >> It is uh but it's accurate here. You know, we get that break with this July 29th decisive candle to the downside. So, I like things are near 470 right days for me, but I'd be more than willing, which is just on the outside of

[3:55:07] the expected move here, one standard deviation move and inside the expected deviation move and inside the expected move for 51 days. Uh, $31 12.5 cents in credit on a $10 wide strike, risking 343 to make 156. 82% probability of profit.

[3:55:23] I will take that. Seems decent to me. We just have to hold the recent swing high. >> Yeah, I'm gonna go into 12 days. is buy the 70, sell the 70 halves. Again, violating the violating the credit a little bit, but you know what?

[3:55:38] I want to get in there and play. Hey, really quickly, Chris, crude oil filled on Oh, no. I was actually I was looking at crude oil. Sorry, Z. I was looking at So, crude oil has one of the quietest

[3:55:54] days we've seen in a while. >> In a long time. >> In a long time. >> Long time. And um no, it's corn. Sorry, sorry, sorry. I was screw I was looking at crude oil. Uh corn. I'm going to do

[3:56:08] the these are too narrow. I'm going to do the I'm going to buy the 415, sell the 420s with 16 days. 87 12 415, sell the 420s with 16 days. 87 12 cents. Bing. Working. So, this is one of

[3:56:23] the quietest days we've had in crude oil in a while. Um I'm going to go in. I'm going to take a look when I get on at 100 p.m. for the live my live trading segment. I'm going to take a look at some of the prediction markets in the

[3:56:37] some of the prediction markets in the WTI and the Brent um crude oil markets. Uh lost money in there yesterday. Uh made a little bit of money in there today. Made some money in Bitcoin yesterday and today. So the prediction

[3:56:50] possibilities. >> TP, as we go out the door here, uh just There was a position a short iron condor trade that was put on uh a week or so ago. Um likewise a short call spread where you had both up at the 94.95.

[3:57:05] Right now TP those are currently trading for just if we wanted to put these on them? We would get seven cents credit. Would we put on a trade for seven cents credit? >> A dollar wide strike.

[3:57:17] >> No no take it off. We actually have two of them there. So we're going to just get rid of both of you later. get filled. The downside though because the trade changes a little bit. Dollar wide on the 667 is still 27 cents. Taking a

[3:57:30] this for a tiny bit longer to see what goes on. But hey little bit of futures. We talked hogs, we talked cattle, we talked some of the not even talking stocks for 15 minutes, but they didn't [laughter] but they

[3:57:44] take a brief break here on Tasty Live. Uh we have more live trading trades of the day coming up next. Get ready for it. We'll be back after a break.

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[3:59:17] huge rally yesterday, market seems to be calming down just a little bit. We did pop up this morning, but uh now we're sitting kind of flat as we approach some uh more key earnings here. SanDisk and WDC. We'll see how those memory storage

[3:59:31] WDC. We'll see how those memory storage names fare, got to tell you, they say it's not going to go well, you can imagine. So, we'll all stay uh tuned to that. But, you know, I I've got a lot of tech names. um I've derisked some of

[3:59:45] looking at uh other parts of the portfolio to possibly dip into. And then the things that always draw my eye when you're talking about trade of the day is what's moving. And um as I go through and look around and uh we can go to the

[4:00:00] moving. The first thing I see is gold. Obviously big moving gold today. But I'll be honest with you, I don't want to step in front of this train right now. green bar obviously on the day, but the the volume there, pretty strong volume

[4:00:14] And so, for that reason alone, I don't were to get another big green bar, um, like we have today, tomorrow, possibly I'd step in for a quick short using this MGC contract, which is onetenth the size

[4:00:28] of the regular gold contract. Um, but for now, I'm staying away. So, while I did analyze the idea of doing a trade of the day with gold and or GLD, I'm going a little bit more to this momentum. So, I'm going to chill out on that. But then

[4:00:41] I started thinking about, you know, the rotation that we've seen at times and and tech and consumer staples. And I've been on that train. I mean, I've been long consumer staples. I've been long tech both ways. And um that has worked

[4:00:53] out well um especially last month. But I'm not sure if that trend is changing or not. And so I wanted to take a look at uh if we can look at in the form of XLK. Obviously this is the uh the tax ETF. I think it's State Street ETF. And

[4:01:07] ETF. I think it's State Street ETF. And let's see, let's compare that to XLP, let's see, let's compare that to XLP, which is uh the consumer staples ETF. And uh right here, let's see. This is um let's go. This is one year so far. Let

[4:01:21] me blow this up a little bit. Let's change this to um change it to an area. Right? So this red line here if you can see it is uh consumer staples. Let's look at on the one year consumer staples up 5%. You can see tech is up 44%. But

[4:01:35] if we go a little closer or the last month um you can see this is kind of what we've been talking about. So it's bounced back to some degree. XLK on the bounced back to some degree. XLK on the one month time period is up 2% versus um

[4:01:48] XLP which is consumer staples up 1 and a.5%. Uh let's see how this has gone over the last week or so. Um and over the last week obviously it's been a big diversion. I mean if you look back here obviously you can see that consumer

[4:02:01] staples at this point in time which was basically uh on um hold on that's not basically uh on um hold on that's not right. What time period is that? Um oh Hold on. Let's do this. Let's go one day. Let's do this all over again.

[4:02:16] Looking at one year. The red here is consumer staples and um this one obviously is XK consumer uh the the the tech index. So one-year basis, 9.9% versus 29%. If we go uh that's year-to date. If we go one month, um we can see

[4:02:32] that the tech this makes more sense is down 1.63% versus 2.5% for consumer staples when we look at this area shaded right here. Uh over a week period

[4:02:44] changed, right? We can see XLK came back and that's what we've seen. And so I feel like to me this seems like a decent time to step in and maybe get consu consumer staples name or two. Um, look,

[4:02:56] and I love to mention it uh because this is, you know, I I don't get any money from from this from Fin Viz, but I I've always liked what they have here and it's always fascinating to me. And so um when I look at which I can't really see

[4:03:11] right now uh give me a second. The monitor kind of went out on me even great. I guess I'll just look up here and do it. Um, oh, there we go. Oh, it's gone again. Well, when I look at uh consumer staples and I look at what's

[4:03:26] been going on in this space, I'm cons I'm I'm considering like what names do I want to find using this right here. There we go. Um, so I'll usually go to let's just say uh I know Coke is a consumer staple

[4:03:41] and um if I go to consumer defensive, right? looking at those names and then I go down to market cap. I like the store by market cap. This way I know I'm now I know I already have a Walmart position. I have a Costco position. I

[4:03:56] have a Coke position. I actually have a PG position. Um I I looked at Philip Morris, but it doesn't really have the chart that I want. Um I do have a Pepsi position. I want to find some of these bigger consumer staples names that are

[4:04:08] on their lows, right? Um or on their lows or maybe have room to grow. Now, believe it or not, of all these, I decided to go with target. I like the decided to go with target. I like the way uh target looks um overall. And

[4:04:21] let's just remove this uh chart here. Uh and bring this um sorry, rid of that. Get rid of XLP. When I look over uh year to date, Target has had a run. It's been

[4:04:38] while ago and it worked out really well. I I know it's not on its lows. I mean, I got plenty of those. I got Pepsi. I got Coke. Um, which are on their lows. I have a couple of names like that. Um, Walmart has struggled at times, too. Um,

[4:04:51] and and so has Costco. And I'm already playing those names. I decided to play one that has a little bit of strength to it and can continue to keep going. So, I bullish position in here. And so, going to the trade tab, it's always a question

[4:05:06] what position do you want to do? How do you want to, you know, make it work? Normally in these situations, I'd look at a situ I'd look at to see if I could do maybe a diagonal, especially in these. These are kind of like, you

[4:05:19] know, mostly uh cheaper volume names, meaning they're not in the 70s or 80s like a lot of these tech names. They're usually in the 30s or 40s. In this case, I had to go out to October to get a 30 or 40. Now, again, I could have gone um

[4:05:32] I could have got long September, but I have a lot of that. And that's the other book. Right now I have a lot of long September versus short August. Um and August is going to roll off obviously here within the next 3 weeks. You don't

[4:05:45] because then it comes a question of how are you going to change around your book and organize your book once August expires? How are you going to move all going to are you going to get to a situation where you're able to close

[4:05:58] them out? Are you making enough money in them yet? Case in point, I got lucky. I would say after McDonald's earnings, stock is up today. I have a long SEP in short August. I have plenty of these type of positions, long sap, short

[4:06:10] August. I was able I had a I had one I have one here now the 270 uh I think 300, but I also had another one which was the 260 3 290. I was able to close that out. And so my whole point is is am I going to be able to get to a point

[4:06:25] pushing some of them further out? And so in this case I decided to push this one further out. Now we're getting long October and we're getting short September. We did the diagonal. And I like to do these a little um somewhat

[4:06:39] aggressively if it's if it's not too expensive. So in this case, I bought the expensive. So in this case, I bought the uh 145 call in October to sell. And I always like to at least go $15 wide, sometimes maybe even $20 wide. And in

[4:06:53] this case, I sold the uh uh the 165 call, which is just outside the expected move here for September in September. And yes, both of these capture earnings. Um, not that I wanted to capture earnings, but I in this case I'm I'm not

[4:07:08] too worried about targets earnings. I know it can it can move on earnings. Um, it was definitely a lot more volatile on earnings in recent times. Uh, but this time around I I guess let me see what what did it do last earnings. So, we'd

[4:07:20] right here. And you can see it's a decent size move, right? But nothing crazy. I mean, when I when I look at it top to bottom, high to low was about $6. Um, that's a little under, well, at the

[4:07:33] time it was a little under 5%. Right? So, I can withstand that and that's you know, a 20% move on earnings, right? So, I can live with that. So, I get I got the diagonal here. I got long October, short

[4:07:47] September. And again, I did it for $8.40. It's $20 widespread. So, that means what? About $11.60 is the max I can make. Now, if I make about $5 on this thing and all of a sudden it's worth 143 to $14, that's a pretty

[4:08:03] chunky, I would say, uh, calendar call spread. I'm sorry, that's a pretty point, maybe I close it out and that's at least 50% gain at that point, right? So, that would that would be the time where I would look to close it out. So,

[4:08:17] um, I I I like doing these consumer staples names. Again, we've seen such a massive runup in tech that at some point you might see little rotations and we've seen bits and pieces of that at times. I just like to have these plays on such

[4:08:31] that when the rotation happens, you're still in the market and you're still participating and you're not really just subject to one sector when that sector is not necessarily working out. So, um, as you can see, a lot of these just I

[4:08:43] to just regular call spreads except you've been able to sell a little further upside in a near-term cycle, which is kind of nice. And while it's not necessarily highvall, 165 is pretty far away from this, right? And so if it

[4:08:55] does go up, I still work out pretty well. Um, in that situation, but having a 20 point wide spread, I mean, you got to love it. So I I I usually you'd usually want to get these for, as I've mentioned before, half the width of the

[4:09:10] spread. I would have been comfortable probably buying this for for $10 to buy it for $8.40, even better. I tell you, like usually for me, if it's a a 20 point wide spread, I usually start to get a little, you know, if it's a little

[4:09:24] usually want those because then I'm can make on this? If I buy it for 12, the most I can make is eight. Uh, you and you just you you figure there might be some attrition here anyway. If the

[4:09:38] pull back. For me right now, if that happens, I might lose half of it. That's $400. I can stand that. in the case of if it's worth a,000 or 1,200 and you bought it for 1,200 let's say you lose

[4:09:50] half of it 600 that's kind of annoying you know what I mean so I just think willing to lose on this if it pulls back and what is the most I can gain and how much how how quickly will that happen and in this case if if the the most I

[4:10:03] can gain is $12 if I make half of that I'd love that you know what I mean so that's how I look at these type of spreads um and again I I like to do a liquid name. It's also when we looked at the list once again, it was one of the

[4:10:17] largest uh one of the larger on the list as number 14 as far as the size of these consumer staple names and that automatically lets me know that I'm in a very liquid name. So that's the idea. So if we can pull up P&L graph here um if

[4:10:32] we have one otherwise this will suffice. again doing this this diagonal in target buying the October 145 call which is essentially at the money and selling the essentially at the money and selling the upside call in September the 165 strike

[4:10:47] paying $8.40 max I can make is $11.60 60 cents likely max I can make is $11.60 60 cents likely I will uh accept half of that max profit and just move on from the trade. So that's the easiest way to do it. But

[4:11:03] again, just wanted to get some something other tech exposure and I've actually reduced a lot of test tech risk. But still just wanted to get something on figured consumer staples was the way to go, especially when we pulled up that

[4:11:16] initial chart. see how these consumer staples have performed relatively recently compared to. So that's my trade of the day, a target diagonal call. Now I'm going to kick it over to Mike with his trade of the day.

[4:11:40] another trade idea for you for today. Crazy day in the markets. E- minis are flat, only up three. The NASDAQ has sold off quite a bit, down 70 points right now. Uh, basically gave up all of its gains from this morning. Wild to see,

[4:11:53] gains from this morning. Wild to see, but also not too surprising considering the magnitude of the move we saw over the last couple of days here. But we've got another earnings report. We've got Western Digital after the close today.

[4:12:06] We've got SanDisk after the close today. And I think it's going to be interesting to see what happens with those two. We've had uh the same kind of story being told throughout a lot of these different tech stocks. If capex is a

[4:12:19] multiple of what's expected, then the stock will go down. Uh we saw AMD give was a wild one. We had a calendar spread. We had two calendar spreads for spread. We had two calendar spreads for earnings in AMD yesterday, but into that

[4:12:34] 500 and it rallied all the way up to 530. It was a 30 point intraday rip. I closed both of those calendars and got lucky with avoiding a downside move in AMD, but I'm back in with a Super Bowl in AMD into the sell-off. But today's

[4:12:49] in AMD into the sell-off. But today's trade, I'm actually going to WDC. So WDC going to be reporting earnings after the close. So is SanDisk, but SanDisk is a

[4:13:01] close. So is SanDisk, but SanDisk is a $1,400 product, which means uh any trade in there is going to be super expensive and getting narrow in terms of the uh width of the spread. You're going to have pretty wide bid ass spreads uh and

[4:13:14] pretty wide markets for that matter. If you go to like a 1350, 1345, fivepoint a $5 wide bid ass spread. Doesn't mean you can't get filled. Doesn't mean you can't get out or in. uh you certainly could, but it's just a hairier trade, a

[4:13:29] stick with the implied volatility differential for both of these products. So, I'm going with WDC, $500 product, much more digestible, still very expensive because we've got 100% implied volatility across the board

[4:13:44] here. But look at this implied move. 59 point implied move for Western Digital point implied move for Western Digital against a $550 stock price. So, over 10% at the notional. I say this every time. Anytime you have a over 10% notional

[4:13:58] move implied for the week of earnings, especially with only two days left, you have yourself a situation where you could see some fireworks. I'm placing a downside put calendar here. So, I went out to the 2-day uh and I sold the 500

[4:14:12] expected move. This is where we typically like to live for these earnings announcements. If I'm selling an option, I usually go towards the expected move, maybe just inside of it, maybe just outside of it. But pretty big

[4:14:24] difference between the $490 at $7 and the 500. Nice round number at $1,000. interest in the $490, which is interesting. But if we look at volume, I assume uh we've got more volume on the

[4:14:38] 500 strike. There you go. So sticking with that round number helps reduce the bid ass spread and keep the the markets more active there. So went with the 500 strike, sold that option in the 2-day cycle, and then I bought the 500 strike

[4:14:53] out in the 9-day. So this is another way where you can get super small relative to the notional value of the stock price, relative to IV, is just doing longing the 9-day, short the 2-day. These are pretty binary trades in the

[4:15:08] sense that if Western Digital rips 100 points, both of these options are likely going to go to zero. Maybe the nine-day holds on to a little bit of value, but maybe it's a dollar, maybe it's 50 cents, something like that. So, I'm

[4:15:20] expecting uh to see losses on the upside if Western Digital does rally. But if it doesn't, we do have a nice risk graph here that we can analyze uh to the downside. So, looking at the analysis mode, I've got just this trade pulled up

[4:15:35] here, just the trade uh where I'm long the 500 strike put, short the 500 strike really like what I like to see with these calendar spreads. Paying two grand in the in the nine-day, collecting $1,000 in the two-day. I like to reduce

[4:15:50] my cost basis by about 50% or more if I can help it because it just gives you a wider net to be successful. If I was only collecting like $500 on this short option against this $2,000 option, that would mean my net debit would be

[4:16:06] would mean my net debit would be somewhere around $1,500. And look how narrow the profit graph gets when I change this make this adjustment. Boom. So you can see the less you pay overall

[4:16:18] to buy a long option uh against the current value of the long option. So if you're collecting 50% of that value, 60% 70%, you just have way more ability to make money on that trade because all you need is your long option to be worth or

[4:16:33] have exttrinsic value that exceeds your debit paid. So, if I'm only collecting $5 for the short, that would bring me to a $15 debit. Much more narrow trade a $15 debit. Much more narrow trade here. But with a $9 debit, you can see

[4:16:46] much wider break evens, much more max profit to the downside. And if you make that uh assessment even further, let's say I was able to collect $1,500 for the short relative to the long, now you got even wider break evens, even more max

[4:16:59] profit. So my baseline here for calendar spreads is collect about half of the value that you're paying for the option and it gives you a nice window to be and it gives you a nice window to be successful. I was filled at $9 exactly.

[4:17:13] successful. I was filled at $9 exactly. So if we analyze this, we can see evaluating at Friday's date. So if we go to tomorrow, you can see you still have a nice profit potential if we kick it out one day. But we do have to crush

[4:17:26] implied volatility here by a pretty substantial amount. Uh these back months substantial amount. Uh these back months in the 23-day, 30-day, 55day, 60-day here, like these are all under 100%. So, I expect this 9-day cycle to drop to

[4:17:41] about 100%. Uh maybe a little bit less, maybe a little bit more. So, we're going maybe a little bit more. So, we're going to need to see uh a nice V crush in the zero day uh or the two-day, I should say. But we also are going to have to

[4:17:54] account for a decent vault crush in the option that I'm long. I think 19% option that I'm long. I think 19% bringing us down from 120% to 100% is more, maybe we see a little bit less, but at the end of the day, if we're at

[4:18:07] Friday's expiration and I've got a 19% ball crush in the long option, I still have plenty of wiggle room here to be successful on a downside move. So, currently trading at 550. This is telling me that I'll still have a

[4:18:20] theoretical profit of about $100 if we push this to Friday, you get a 19% V crush in uh the long option. And that makes a lot of sense. This long option with nine days to go at 100% implied volatility is still going to hold on to

[4:18:34] plenty of exttrinsic value. And again, I just need the long option to have more than $900 of exttrinsic value for this thing to work out. And right now, it's thing to work out. And right now, it's got $2,000 of exttrinsic value. So any

[4:18:47] good for this position. Obviously I don't want this thing to drop 150 points because that would mean we are losing exttrinsic value in the long option to the downside since calendar spreads are pure exttrinsic value trades. My long

[4:19:01] put gains intrinsic value but my short put gains intrinsic value on a down move in an equivalent manner. So no intrinsic value profit potential. It's all exttrinsic value, which is why I've got my theoretical profit potential at

[4:19:15] around $1,000. If you if you crush the IV, we hold to Friday, and we get the move down to 500, this $9 debit could turn into a $2,000 trade or $1,000 net profit. So, that's what I'm looking at for WDC. Now, what happens if it

[4:19:31] rallies? I think this is interesting. So, generally speaking, $900 is still expensive for a calendar spread, but not necessarily expensive for a $550 product that has over 100% implied volatility in many options expiration cycles. But, I

[4:19:48] still have a little bit of wiggle room here. So, what could be interesting is let's say uh Western Digital rallies a little bit or even like stays right where it's at. I think it's going to make some kind of move with an implied

[4:20:01] move of 60 points here over the next two days. But let's say we chop around here and let's say there's a bigger V crush in the long option in the 9day. Maybe I'm looking at like a $100 loss or let's say if it rallies uh 20 30 points and

[4:20:15] I'm looking at a a bigger loss. What I could consider doing is flying this off. could consider doing is flying this off. So, I could go out and take into account that my $9 debit is already on the table. I've already reduced cost basis

[4:20:30] on this long option at 500. But there is a world where these options are still a world where these options are still trading for 23 $400, the 500 strike or the 490, 480, etc., etc. If there's a world where these are trading for $200,

[4:20:44] $300 still, I could fly this off. So, I could get rid of my 2-day options and I could convert this to a 10-point wide butterfly or a 15-point wide butterfly where I'm selling two of the 480s, for

[4:20:58] example. Let's go 20 points wide. Let's say I can sell two of the 480s and then buy one of the 460s. And let's say I'm able to collect, you know, even if it's just a dollar on this trade. If I'm able to collect a dollar

[4:21:11] to butterfly this off, what I'd be left with is ultimately uh a 500, 480, with is ultimately uh a 500, 480, 460 butterfly that I would pay. I would

[4:21:24] 460 butterfly that I would pay. I would have a net debit of what, $8 on that if I had the ability to collect a dollar, fly it off, give myself uh a shot at getting some more profitability. Not going to be the best profit curve here.

[4:21:37] If we look at expiration, I mean it's going to be super narrow, but I mean that's what you could do if you if you wanted to reduce basis a little bit. Of course, if we have a scenario where I can pick up more than a dollar and let's

[4:21:49] say I can pick up, you know, three or four dollars on that adjustment. Now, I would be at a basis of, you know, $6 if I collect $3. And we're looking a lot where I can make some money on this trade. There's also a world where

[4:22:05] Western Digital rips higher and these options are trading like the long option by itself, the 9-day is trading for, you know, $2, $300 by itself. Maybe I just it would be an effective hedge if I assume that Western Digital moves down

[4:22:21] in a in a world where the rest of the market is moving down too. So, all in all, there is something we can do in our back pocket here. We could butterfly it off. You could turn it into a vertical spread if you wanted to. You could go 20

[4:22:33] spread if you wanted to. You could go 20 points wide with uh a debit of what, $7, sell an option for two bucks. you get into this. Uh, I need to change this from a ratio spread to a vertical spread. How about let's do that. Uh, but

[4:22:49] debit. Let's say I could sell an option for a dollar. Either way, you still give yourself uh some room to profit to the downside if there is a reversal. So, that's where my head's at. I think WDC although it is a expensive calendar

[4:23:05] spread I'm still checking the boxes for the things that I usually look for with calendar spreads in reducing my cost basis by 50% or more with the sale of a basis by 50% or more with the sale of a short option against the long and uh

[4:23:18] giving myself another out if there is a chop sideways or maybe if this thing rallies maybe I can convert it to a butterfly maybe I can convert it to a vertical spread or if it's only if this long option is only trading for you know

[4:23:30] a dollar or two, I'll probably just leave it because I know that WDC has the propensity to move. If you look at a chart of recent price action, you can see this thing has gone up and down 100 points pretty regularly over the last

[4:23:42] couple of weeks here. So, that's ultimately where I'm thinking in terms ultimately where I'm thinking in terms of the WDC trade of the day. But, I'm intrigued to see what happens. I mean, if they report a massive capex,

[4:23:56] I think it's hard for them to see a rally. We only saw a handful of names report a big capex, but they had profit to back it up. Like Microsoft, for example. Uh AMD was one of those stocks that reported a huge capex. It was

[4:24:09] almost three times the expectation, and you saw the stock sell off 6%. So, I'm expecting something similar with WDC. I'm expecting something similar with I'm expecting something similar with SanDisk. Uh but as we say, earnings can

[4:24:24] be crazy. you can see uh a big capex number and maybe it's less than the market expected in terms of the multiple of the capex and you see the stock rally. So because of that, I'm always going to stick with defined risk trades

[4:24:39] for the most part in these products, especially $550 product, $1,300 product, like obviously I'm going to be defined risk in there. But, uh, I still like the trade in terms of the risk I've got outlaid, my plan. If things go haywire,

[4:24:53] if WDC rallies, I can butterfly it off. I can turn it into a vertical spread and just reduce cost basis and see what happens over the next week or just leave that long option on because at the end of the day I have already reduced cost

[4:25:06] of the day I have already reduced cost basis by about 50% with the uh sale of the two-day option against the 9-day. Unfortunately, there's no uh you know semi-weekly expirations where you've got the the Monday, Wednesday, Friday in

[4:25:19] WDC. There's not enough activity for them to open those up like you might see in some of the other mag seven stocks. But still the ability to reduce basis by 50% on the initial trade entry which I've already done and the ability to

[4:25:32] verticalize this or butterfly this off if we do end up chopping or getting a rally in WDC. U but it's all going to depend on the V crush here. This 119% is probably going to drop to 100% if I were to guess because all of these

[4:25:46] expirations back here are already at 90 mid 90s uh even in the 80s back here. in September, you're going to see a Vault crush in October. These are probably going to drop down to the low 90s. So, I think August is, you know,

[4:26:01] fair to say that this will still stay elevated above September. So, if I think low 90s, maybe high 80s, I think it's fair to say that August drops to 100%. less. But that's what I'm playing for in the 9-day versus the 2-day. And a quick

[4:26:18] recap here. WDC bought the 500 strike put in the 9-day cycle. That's August 14th. That's next Friday. And I sold the same option, 500 strike put in the 2-day expiration. Max loss is 900 bucks. That was the debit I paid. Theoretical max

[4:26:33] profit is about $1,000. And that was calculated on holding this trade to Friday and crushing implied volatility in the 9-day cycle by about 20% bringing that 119% IV down to 100% IV. So let me

[4:26:51] in the comments. But that's the trade of the day. And again, if everything uh goes to plan, we'll close this on the open tomorrow. We'll have a nice winner But if not, like I talked about, butterfly it off or verticalize it. But

[4:27:05] we got another trade for you coming up right now. Here's E. few options. We got a lot of volatility in the market today. Uh but one thing I

[4:27:21] disappointing this SpaceX IPO is. Maybe we get a little bit uh more of a rally into the end of the year. They they beat earnings, right? Good earnings, but the continued sell off to the downside. So that's really a testament to how a

[4:27:35] bionary event, even if we have good news, we don't know for sure how the overall market is going to respond to that news. And I was listening to uh Jim one of the creators of Market Profile, but I was listening to him again the

[4:27:49] the same point. And I remember just thinking like, well, you would think you would have an advantage if you know what the release is going to be. Like if you you would think that would give you an advantage for the trade that you're

[4:28:02] like this is a really good example of how you can have good news. You could even know that the earnings beat is coming, but we don't know how the market even if it's good. So, with that being said, SpaceX down a little bit more on

[4:28:14] really well yesterday. I almost thought I was like, yo, we might be able to sneak out a max profit on SpaceX. like this thing was recovering pretty well and Tuesday and then we got slapped right back down to the lows. So, we

[4:28:27] still have 16 days left to expiration. A lot can happen in a little over two weeks. So, we're going to be patient with it. Uh, and if Elon wants to sneak us out a green trade, I would appreciate that, but had my eye on SpaceX. Uh, if

[4:28:39] some of the trades of the day that we posted this week, uh, another one that out of the money out of the money put spread on USO. This is whenever USO continued to sell off to the downside

[4:28:52] downside, which I thought that was now more attractive to maybe sell some premium, give ourselves a little bit of breathing room, see if this can recover but we're still getting some more downside movement on oil right now.

[4:29:06] put that one on yesterday. And I know I was talking about this micro crude oil position as well. And uh this was another trade where I actually ended up cutting this one for about a uh a $330 something dollar loss. Uh should have

[4:29:19] hesitated on the trigger for cutting the trade whenever we had the selloff in the pre-market yesterday. Uh but last night, we were able to get repositioned near the lows. And I'll show you where that entry is at right now. Right now, we're

[4:29:33] risking about 11 to 12 bucks on this specific trade. We've had a lot of volatility in the market. This position has been up over 200 bucks at one point. the day, I don't really mind what happens, but it would be really nice to

[4:29:45] be able to recover a little bit of that draw down that we took on the micro just emphasizes the fact how risk management is really where your money is going to be made, right? Because we're up over 200% or up over $200 on the

[4:29:59] overall position. And we would have been green on the week on oil. If I would have cut that trade, it was like $120, 150 bucks in that range. If I would have managed that risk a little bit better, oil would be in the green overall this

[4:30:11] claw our way back out of that a little bit. We were able to scalp some of the micro NASDAQ today from the volatility at its highs. We were able to top tick get a top tick, but it was it's always satisfying whenever we can get a move in

[4:30:23] the market with uh with very small risk on the trade. So, we might talk about also financing a little bit of the oil trades that we did throughout this week. that I did was on Google. This is where we sold in iron condor. We ended up

[4:30:36] up rolling that call side down a little bit so we can collect an additional there. If you look at the order chains over here, we're up just a little bit on wants to go out to eat, let me know. Uh, actually, never mind. It just updated.

[4:30:49] overall trade. We collected a total of 280 worth of credit. So, we're going to on how the iron condor is one of the like most boring positions that you can have on in the portfolio. Uh, but when you really let time do its thing, theta

[4:31:03] that's what we're trying to do on this one. Not looking to hold this one all the way to expiration. It's below that 21 days rule of thumb that we kind of 16 days left. Um, and we're going to keep an eye on it, right? If we got to

[4:31:15] 80 bucks, you know, we'll go ahead and do that. It was a post earnings trade, from Google, but it would be really nice to see a little bit of a pullback. Uh, earnings, we've only seen green since then. And I mean this pullback in the

[4:31:29] helping this overall trade because again we had 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 eight consecutive days to the upside after getting that gap down from the initial earnings. So bit. We might be able to fall back into that range, but the more we do sell off

[4:31:45] profits on Google. Micron was another position uh that we put on for a trade in Micron. I believe SanDisk is going to be reporting earnings here soon. And something Gus and I always stress is how whenever another underlying that's

[4:31:58] correlated has earnings, it almost feels you feel those ripple effects into the other assets. And I'm in Micron right So I'm going to be mindful of that. See if we can go to the options chain, see

[4:32:12] is going to be. And it's going to be after the bell August 5th, uh, which is today. Uh, it's a good reminder. My my sister's birthday is in 10 days. So that, too. I got a couple other friends birthdays within 10 days. Uh these

[4:32:25] earnings always do a good job of keeping us on track with the dates and where 5th. We got earnings after the bell on on uh on SanDisk. So, I'm going to keep on this Micron position. I'm hoping we see a little bit more downside. I think

[4:32:38] it would be pretty crazy for us to have a very like major leg up to the upside and considering where the S&P 500 is at. So, I'm going to be leaning bearish on an earnings trade right now on SanDisk. Uh you're going to have to ask Dr. Jim

[4:32:52] sand because I have exposure to that industry right now via Micron, but I'm hoping to see a little bit of a downside slide. Um, I know we've finally seen a downtrend in some of these memory names.

[4:33:05] today, I mean, nobody's having a worse week than I mean, Leopold because we've week than I mean, Leopold because we've only uh chugged to the upside after that those memory names and, you know, the overall market. But maybe this can send

[4:33:18] I think even he would feel a little bit more comfortable uh with getting liquidated if we if we head to to further prices to the downside. But I got Sandus earnings after the bell. Uh we're in Micron right now. TLT is one of

[4:33:31] the bonds position that we have on. We're up about $27. Zebra trade. Zero We're up about $27. Zebra trade. Zero extrinsic. Zebra zero extrinsic. pioneering that on the show though. But I got a zebra trade on. Right. Zero

[4:33:45] I got a zebra trade on. Right. Zero extrinsic. Zero extrinsic. Zebra. Zero me with that one. I forgot what the zebra stands for, but it's a zero extrinsic value trade. So, as time goes on, we don't have to worry about that

[4:33:58] eaten up. If we move sideways, uh if we go nowhere, right? It's kind of a synthetic stock position where we have about 98 positive delta on this right now. So, if TLT were to go up one full point, we would make about $98 per

[4:34:11] right, we're going to be down about 98 bucks. Um, so that's another way we can directional exposure to one of these markets. And TLT is not too volatile, so a zebra and something like that. It's also a cheaper underlying uh but we got

[4:34:27] mentioned as we got started here, I sold an out of the money put spread over here on oil. Maybe we can catch a little bit of a pop. We do also have the micro now. It's working. It's in the money for us. So, that's working out pretty well

[4:34:40] and that's kind of financing this $8 down day that we have on USO itself. But because both of those positions are leaning to the long side, I want to keep when it comes down to the micro crude oil futures. Uh when it comes to the

[4:34:53] Adam put spread that we sold on USO, I might give that one a little bit more time to cook just because it is a vertical spread. It's defined risk $5 wide. Uh we collected $1.78 on it. So, I'm not going to hold it to a max loser,

[4:35:05] bit more breathing room. But when it comes down to some of the futures emphasizing in the beginning here, I think it's so important to stay true to your risk because when you're trading futures, there's it's it's undefined

[4:35:17] risk, right? You're going to be in the position until you exit the trade. So, you have to be the one to frame up the risk and reward, right? Out of the money vertical spreads are so nice because that max profit and that max loss is

[4:35:29] already. So, we already know the worst outcome. We already know our max profit. So we can sit comfortable throughout those trades. But with futures, you're and reward. If you don't want to be disciplined to it, then you know, the

[4:35:44] But I mean, you can even use me as an example of how I let my risk run a pre-market longer than it should have. We would have been out of the hole thing got to give this thing a little bit more room to run to be able to

[4:35:56] recoup a little bit of that. So when it comes down to framing up the risk and come down to discipline. It's going to come down um to having a level head whenever emotions are involved um and not uh being afraid or just being

[4:36:11] reposition for the next opportunity. Sometimes we trade as if the market doesn't give us an opportunity almost on a weekly basis. So emphasizing that there with the futures products. But for trade of the day, let's get to the good

[4:36:23] looking at Apple today. So we had earnings not too long ago on Apple. consolidating at its lows. I want to get on a little bit more short delta here. We're almost flat on the day. Down about 8 cents, 7 cents on the day. Just barely

[4:36:38] day. So, we're pretty much break even. We're flat. Um, but Apple's been one of those sneaky underlyings that has been continuously chugging to the upside, right? Like Microsoft was so beaten down at its lows and then we finally got a

[4:36:51] you've been beaten down for a little bit. You kind of drifted into that terms of what uh underlyings people were looking at. And then on the back end of things, Apple's just steadily chugging higher like nobody's business. We had

[4:37:04] the earnings seen a little bit of a gap down. The gap wasn't too uh wasn't too aggressive either. It's about 20 points. And I mean, you know, 20 points is 20 the fact that that's still a decent move in the market, but considering where

[4:37:16] Apple has been this year. That gap down isn't too aggressive. So, I would love Apple. And with that being said, we're going to go ahead and look to see what the 16 days. We'll go a little bit further out. be 44 days. It's been a

[4:37:30] DTE trades where we kind of just let it sit in the portfolio and cook a little credits as we go. Uh but that's what we're going to do on this one. Let's see what we can collect. If we look at the 315 uh buying the 320, that's going to

[4:37:43] give us a $1.93. I know we're a little bit close to the strikes, but the fact bit more comfortable and especially considering the fact that we're still trading near these highs on Apple. So, I'm comfortable to do that. We're going

[4:37:55] to collect almost $2 worth of credit, which is about 30 cents more than a be able to reduce that max loss a little bit more because we're collecting a little bit more credit. Defined risk, $5 wide, selling the 315, buying the 320s.

[4:38:08] Um, buying power is only going to be about 307. So, that's not bad. And for power on your trade is going to be the same as your max loss when it comes down vertical spreads. Um, and the more the more credit you can collect, the more

[4:38:21] why I kind of like this one a little bit more. Even though I know I'm a little bit close to the strikes, right? It's a 60% pop. It's a 68 69% P50. I mean, we could slide it out a little bit more. That's going to give us a $160.

[4:38:34] closer to that expected move for the 44day cycle in September 18th, right? We can collect maybe 30 to 40 cents less of credit to give ourselves an extra $5 of

[4:38:46] We can look at where the high is at on Apple right now. The high of Apple was trading at 344 345 give or take. Uh let's say the low of the gap is 330 on Apple. Go back to the options chain. We were looking to sell the 315 320 just

[4:39:00] get an idea of where that 315 is on the actual chart. Uh so you know I'm not I'm kind of guy trader. I know we did a little bit of analysis with Sahil I where we were kind of calculating some of these gaps and the probability of

[4:39:14] these gaps being filled. Um, so not that I necessarily want to see this gap being ourselves a little bit more time, I'm actually comfortable getting a little bit closer um to at the money. Like I know we can go out to the 320, maybe

[4:39:27] sell the 320, buy the 325, give ourselves a little bit more room. I would maybe do that if I didn't have as much time on these contracts, but positioning to the downside into September. So I think that's actually

[4:39:40] to collect the additional credit at 315, 320, go a little bit more aggressive. I know the pop here is 65% now P50 73%. Right? I know that looks attractive. It increases our buying power and it increases our max loss just a little

[4:39:53] increases our max loss just a little bit. Uh but it's not too it's not too to get this trade in there. So, we're actually going to see if we can send this one through. Shout out to Apple. 44 days left till expiration. We'll see if

[4:40:05] adjust this. I'm not going to give it too much. Looks like these markets are a was just trading. Now it's trading at $2. Yo, I I would love to get a fill. at right now? We're trying to get filled at uh we're trying to get filled. It

[4:40:21] says mid price 2. We're trying to get filled at 198. We're going to let this cook just for like 60 seconds to see if we can get filled at 198 together. Sometimes I can be so impatient. I'll give up like $10. And I mean, you know,

[4:40:33] pennies. He doesn't want to give up an extra few cents. But hey, let's just let a little bit of a little bit of a rebound. Maybe you can fill that order. It says the mid price right now is two bucks. Limit order is in for $1.98 of

[4:40:46] credit. We've been talking for another 15 seconds. You got to give me 45 more that being said, I want to jump over here real quick just to talk a little bit more about uh our NASDAQ trades that we took today. Uh we were able to short

[4:41:00] and get in some of these positions near 30,000 337 on the day. And I wanted to buy some puts up here as well. Like the puts is something where if I get swept out, I'm not I'm not usually using as tight stop losses on the puts, but man,

[4:41:12] morning, but the market was so volatile. Um, like if I go to this 15-second chart just to show you guys this is what I like to enter my trades on. I mean, it's 15-second, but this 15-second, if you're a scalper, it gives you a little bit

[4:41:25] more precision in terms of where you might want to risk. So, we were looking to get short here. We shorted a we shorted uh one contract over here. We have left the stop in here at the highs, but I was being a little bit stingy uh

[4:41:38] And then we added one more contract near these highs. It was nice to see this initial rejection off this value area high at 30,57. That's what gave us more confidence to hold on to this trade all the way down to the lows at 29,896.

[4:41:52] about the micro crude oil. This is another position that's sliding back on five-minute chart real quick, get a better perception on what's going on. on the screen whenever we were talking last. Um, so don't mind those. But as

[4:42:07] you can see right now, we got our stop loss in at about 74.22. Oil is selling off as we speak. We were up a little bit over 200 bucks on this trade. Um, but we to run. Um, and maybe we can get another opportunity to reposition lower. And

[4:42:20] going to manage our trade very tight on this, right? We got about 11 bucks worth stopped out because I still have a little bit of a bull bias. Would love to said, guys, Apple's going to be trade of the day. Sold an out of the money call

[4:42:33] spread. 44 days left till expiration. We got more coming for you. We got Gus his trade of the day. I appreciate your guys' time. Let's check out what Gus got guys' time. Let's check out what Gus got going on.

[4:42:51] in in Studio D. I've I've been I've been relegated to this studio. Errol Errol very exciting trade for you guys today. It's uh we're I'm getting I'm getting a to dive into my thought process and talk about this one. I'm going to get neutral

[4:43:06] Kico Phillips into earnings tomorrow. Uh they report earnings before the bell tomorrow. And I'm I'm choosing neutrality for a slew of reasons which I'm even getting a little bit more aggressive than some may argue is

[4:43:19] just headed into the end of the week this week. Uh I'm going a little bit inside one standard deviation. I'm I'm really expecting a nothing burger. We screen now if we want to go go details and then we can we can dive over to the

[4:43:33] to the platform. Yes, here we go. Um so yes, I'm attacking Kico. I've gone a short iron condor. I am selling the inside 11219 strike, buying the outside 111 120 strike. Uh looking for KICO to finish between 112 and 119 uh when it at

[4:43:50] close this coming Friday. Uh great great art here. Shout out Luis. We we love can jump straight into the tasty platform here though and talk about this in a little bit more depth. So here's where I'm at on Konico Phillips. Okay, I

[4:44:04] I thought and thought and thought about this. There's so many factors happening in the oil space right now, right? That's obviously no secret. We've seen prices uh move up, down, spin in circles, and go sideways over over the

[4:44:18] last couple of weeks. I and obviously Kico has has closely tracked along with with the price of oil as as we've seen with with any other oil company. Uh Donald Trump was just holler yelling at Exxon yesterday for their

[4:44:32] alleged overcharging on on oil through this through this entire process. But uh pretty much any underlying in the entire oil industry is going to have about the March since since this this slide into

[4:44:44] into April. Now, with Kico, I sat and I thought and I thought and I thought and I said, "Okay, well, first and foremost, this pretty much just looks like a a chart for your preferred oil vehicle." If we look at a chart for CL, uh it's

[4:44:57] more pronounced in in the direct oil market, but we're seeing this this exact same chart action, just bigger swings when you're talking about actual oil itself, the product, not a specific underlying. So, we're mirroring that

[4:45:10] chart. So then I'm thinking, okay, well, we know that this entire time, you know, quarter that KICO is going to be reporting, this war was going on, oil charge a little bit more. All of these

[4:45:24] are obviously bullish variables. Kico is sinking into into today, down 2% intraday today. So my initial thought was let's just go up inside and assume that this 2% down move today is going to be enough compression that we can at

[4:45:40] I was going to do something centered right around moneyiness to slightly out of the money and look for an up inside move. Now as I was thinking that I just this is the normie play. this is the the the normiest way I could possibly think

[4:45:55] about oil right now is Iran war oil price up oil earnings good. So then I thing I could possibly do would be to get short. If I if I were to get short

[4:46:07] here that would be to say the market has sufficiently and perhaps uh to to too increase in the oil prices that we've been seeing this entire time and we're we're going to actually see that things come back down. Maybe maybe KICO issues

[4:46:21] something like, you know, we had a great quarter, but tensions seem to be easing. We expect prices to cool and and things are going to get worse. That could also very well happen and I think will happen. So then I started

[4:46:34] world where I know they just did great this previous quarter, I think that they might say slightly negative things about the future. Is it possible that nothing about that, the more that I thought that's probably correct. We've seen

[4:46:46] other oil companies report this this quarter already this earning cycle. So sufficiently priced into Kaneko's price if you trust that markets are efficient which I certainly do. We obviously have all available information priced into

[4:47:00] the the price of oil which KICO closely tracks alongside. So for me to expect any move out of Kico would actually be to say that I think the market is making a mistake here. I I think that there is some inefficiency in

[4:47:15] surprise and with oil which has perhaps been the single most trending product over the last two months. I just don't know if that's possible. I think that product that we have in the market right now. We've seen with with the giant

[4:47:29] USO or you you pick your preferred vehicle. But uh with with these swings that we've seen in CL, these are all news-driven things. The second that new market reacts quickly and efficiently to fully price it in. That is the efficient

[4:47:42] market hypothesis to a tea. So, if I believe that everything is already priced in and I believe that this quarter is going to be good, but the good, I'm left with no choice but neutrality. And that's and that's where

[4:47:55] I've I've landed on here today is neutrality. From the 112 to the 119 range, I'm giving myself basically $3.50 to the upside, but only well, I suppose, the downside. Now, at the time, at the time when I put this on, we were about

[4:48:08] 50 cents lower. I was giving myself just a little bit more upside protection than pretty much just middled the range, which you know what? I have the trade on take a look at this on the options chain itself. Here's what we're looking at.

[4:48:20] Uh, I got filled 38. You can get you can get a fill at 41 right now. So, actually a little better than I did. I took two of these myself. Obviously, scale based how much risk you're willing to take. But at the core, these are $59 of buying

[4:48:34] power notional for $41 in credit. That's pretty good. That that's that's that's fairly close to one considering that my my wider strikes, my long strikes are at the expected move or at one standard

[4:48:47] with the expected move. I really shouldn't. That's not technically usually the way that I choose to go about things. So, I'm able to get my long strikes right at the one standard deviation move. And there's this is a a

[4:49:00] big old range that that Kaneko has to play around with here in the middle. If we actually look at this on the charts, pop back over here. Uh 119 is, you know, right right in this level here. Basically the the the high of day

[4:49:12] here. Basically the the the high of day for today. Uh and then 112 is considerably down here as well. That would be uh a two or three week low. So I basically have from yes, today's high to a 3-week low is the range that I

[4:49:25] could choose to play. I feel pretty good about that. room and I I feel that it's generous that I'm being afforded anything close to a 1:1 risk profile in this trade, especially considering how close we are

[4:49:39] to uh how shortdated this is. I should say this is expiring on Friday to DTE Obviously, premiums are more attractive right now because of the binary event and the elev elevated volatility that that arises as a result of that. But I'm

[4:49:54] able to take good advantage of this here. And I just like I said earlier, I down to the fact that I think the oil market and the underlying uh companies within it, KICO, Exxon, BP, Shell, you pick your your favorite. I think that

[4:50:08] this is the most efficient segment of the market that we have right now. I I I think that there there is there is nowhere I mean perhaps there's an argument to be made that it's true with tech but even tech you could you know I

[4:50:22] going to make fun of people who who use valuations but I guess I talk too much about valuations to to make fun of anybody. But if you if you get talk to valuations, they'll say, "Oh yeah, well tech is it is it totally efficient? It

[4:50:34] to price in future information that we don't have yet." yada yada yada. Oil is a much more concise asset, a much more I guess pre precise uh vehicle. It's the

[4:50:46] the the price of oil is highly highly highly efficient. All available information is is baked in. And guess what? A barrel of oil does not have a PE ratio. And then you zoom out and I think that has been properly baked into all

[4:51:00] these underlying companies as well. So, I just think that there there couldn't be too much information that Kico could present that the other oil companies who already and and as soon as they presented that information, it would be

[4:51:13] baked into Kaneko's price sufficiently. And I just don't see how we could surprise so much that this stock takes, you know, what do I have to give here? A 3% move. Basically, I could go 3% in either direction. I feel that this

[4:51:27] market and this sector is efficient enough that I'm I'm confident diving into this with 3% of wiggle room. I think that this sector, you know, we we we could be one or 2% wrong, even two and a half% wrong, but I'm shocked if

[4:51:40] and a half% wrong, but I'm shocked if we're somehow 5% wrong on on pricing in what's exactly about to happen with KICO. We have reps on it already. All eyes in the world are on oil, and this just this feels like a good spot to dive

[4:51:52] in here and get neutral. And that's sort of the the thought exercise that you have to do and and people so often and myself included and especially in fact get so hyperfocused on directionality that you forget that neutrality is also

[4:52:08] an option and in any situation and and particularly right now with oil given the efficiencies that I've just outlined but in any situation where you say ah there's these three factors that are super bullish there's three these three

[4:52:21] factors that are super bearish which side of that wins Always keep in mind and think that those factors are going to cancel each other out. And I always say, you know, I'm I'm not an earnings trader by by any stretch of the

[4:52:34] trade earnings. I like to sit on the sidelines and and jump in and fade the moves after they happen. But this is just a a a weird and and highly specific situation where I feel that the information is is so available to

[4:52:47] everyone that I I I'm confident jumping in here. Now, let me let me let me float this for you. I am taking on risk into the end of the week that something could I've outlined as I I I believe to be very probable. I I've I've harped on

[4:53:02] that a lot. I think that relations could deteriorate. Iran could say something could say something that's overly bullish for the oil market or or or or just markets in general. There are external factors that could still hurt

[4:53:15] this. And to me, that's the only way that I get seriously hurt. I think that tested. Perhaps it takes exactly the one standard deviation move and then I need end of the week to to get us right back into the middle of this iron condor. I

[4:53:28] think that's a very real situation. I'm shocked if we take some 6 7 8 10% move uh with w with just Kico's earnings. However, there is great risk of a 6,

[4:53:40] seven, 8, 10% move into the end of the week because of things outside of KICO's control and that are completely unknown to us right now. Uh so you know as as those things uh transpire I we'll see but that's really the only place that

[4:53:55] I'm feeling risk and I and I I you know obviously there is risk present in this say that this is a risk-free guaranteed winner. I lose trades all the time. Just exit my last losing iron condor and S&P today as I as I just discussed on risk

[4:54:08] and reward. This this could go sideways on me. But if there's ever a spot to be neutral into earnings, I feel that it is the spot where I feel the market is most efficient. the information is most widely available and we already have a

[4:54:20] few reps. I'm shocked if the market is is greater than than 5% wrong on this. room that we have out to the expected move coming back in. So, I'm content to brief aside, trades from earlier this week are panning out swimmingly.

[4:54:35] Palanteer that we put on yesterday is going exactly as I said. Did you you guys recall me saying I think Palanteer has a 2% down day tomorrow and that's Rocket Lab continues to print as well uh with plenty of time left on that one. So

[4:54:49] trades the day so far despite the loser and spx and one can only hope that we will see uh this come. Yeah, we can only hope that we will see Kico Phillips do nothing and and create another winner for us here. So that concludes my trade

[4:55:04] of the day for today. Thank you so much for taking the time to watch. Good luck to anybody who tails. May Hanaco treat us well tomorrow morning. I will be back on air at 3 pm Central Standard Time today with Chris Veio for overtime. Be

[4:55:16] the trade for you one more time on the screen for anybody who'd like to get feed as soon as I sit back down at my desk after getting up out of the studio. Thank you for watching. I'll see you guys in a couple hours.

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[4:58:25] reference points. We'll see you guys there. sell options? Because you get more money when you open your trade. People get all

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[4:59:40] to the live. Uh we have a volatile market here, but we do have a guest on He has joined us a couple times already, but I have never got to actually go back that. Um so we can go ahead and bring in

[4:59:52] brother? You got me. >> How's it going? I got you loud and >> Good. Good. Uh how we been this week? It's been pretty crazy so far. Uh we had a pretty crazy Monday, a pretty crazy Tuesday. How are we holding up so far?

[5:00:04] >> Yeah, volatile week, a lot of opportunity. Um, so I think it's great for us as speculators, right? Um, but kind of depends on how you trade, but >> Yeah. No, I hear you 100%. Uh, you've been looking at any earnings, not

[5:00:17] necessarily trading them, but I know SpaceX reported yesterday they beat seeing a little bit more downside. So, they haven't had the hottest, uh, IPO, I some other pretty crazy moves with earnings, you know, FOMC. Do you kind of

[5:00:31] kind of just let me see how the market responds to this and then I'll see how I approach do you kind of take to those things? in the market. So I tend to take a weekly perspective. So in a week I I

[5:00:46] events there are. So I'm not necessarily trading earnings. And to be very very clear like I don't trade earnings in particular. But if a week is packed with like FOMC, CPI, and there's earnings, I expect maybe like larger magnitude on

[5:01:00] the weekly candle. Um, and so out of the weekly, every single day, my daily plan, all that's going to account for that. So, absolutely matters. Um, and then absolutely, especially I primarily trade futures, by the way. um those major like

[5:01:14] players whether it's SpaceX, AMD, Nvidia, large tech companies or any large company in general is going to drive um big moves in the indices as of a lot of volatility in those indices there. I think I had peeped that you

[5:01:29] like volume profile, right? I I I use a volume profile for most of my scalps, usually NASDAQ, S&P 500, you know, auction market theory, market profile, that's a pretty similar style in which you kind of view the market through?

[5:01:42] >> I'd say you described how I trade to a T. Um, so yeah, I mean the only other thing I would layer in there is trend. So very very light technicals. Are we going up? Are we going down? Are we going sideways? But um, yeah, auction

[5:01:57] market theory trader at my core. And then the way that I rationalize that is with the volume profile. And really, I think of the volume profile as where are people's basis, right? As a trader, I know what my basis is. That's just my

[5:02:10] entry for anybody who doesn't know what that word means. I went long at let's that word means. I went long at let's say 295 575. Cool. So, all of my where I entered the market. And the volume profile tells us where everybody

[5:02:24] else entered the market. Um, and based off of that, we could determine where be. So, a little bit more context to the guess, put into context all the data, all the trading activity that we're

[5:02:37] mean, with that being said, we can go ahead and jump into this uh to the what's been going on in the market. And then after that, we can jump over to Trading View uh and maybe even pull up the volume profile a little bit. Uh I

[5:02:50] know Trading View also has a TPO. I don't like to use Trading View for the solid. So, we'll have to check it out here uh in a second. But I mean, with that being said, Q's up near the highs. This is one of the uh few times we've

[5:03:03] seen such a large divergence between NASDAQ and the S&P 500. Have you found that interesting? Right. S&P is at all-time highs, NASDAQ kind of trailing behind, showing that divergence a little bit more. What were your thoughts on

[5:03:16] >> Yeah, it's actually really important. So, because they're both indices, and they're very efficient. A lot of people actually don't trade these for this [clears throat] fence, obviously. Uh but because they're efficient, I think

[5:03:30] they're predictable. And so when they're diverged or out of sync, it gives us a lot of intuition about what is likely to occur next. So if you're looking at, you occur next. So if you're looking at, you know, uh QQQ, ES, INQ, the S&P 500, S&P,

[5:03:44] whatever the index is, because ES is at all-time highs. Another way to explain discovery mode, right? We are at prices that have never been touched before, which means there's no volume up there. nobody really has a position up there,

[5:03:58] right? Like they literally don't where we just got there for the first time. that's not the case. And if you look at ENQ, especially on the macro VP, um we're actually at like in the the edge of a really large node on the volume

[5:04:14] profile, if you look at like the visible range going back a few weeks. Um so what that means is is that INQ is kind of in this on the macro uh equilibrium state whereas you know the S&P 500 is in uh

[5:04:28] pure price discovery mode. So what we're likely to see is basically what we're the first, you know, from settlement open Sunday to today and now we're seeing some consolidation because ENQ

[5:04:40] that is that major node there. And I suspect that ES might come off a little suspect that ES might come off a little bit uh while ENQ catches up. But the next few days uh we really got to see um this other index kind of get into uh

[5:04:56] that that same area all-time highs as well. I don't think there. Uh to be honest, I think we're going to see a little bit of maybe an like that. >> You know, you bring up a really good

[5:05:10] point about, you know, kind of framing that context around what the market might be trying to do right now. You just touched on how S&P 500 is at all-time highs. NASDAQ is not. You just touched on how we're trading at prices

[5:05:22] that we've never seen before. So, where is fair value? Where where are buyers fair value? And it seems like we continue to float to the upside at ranges we've never been before. So we can figure out, you know, where that new

[5:05:35] continued price discovery that you kind of just touched on. And then like you bit of a different story. We're trading below those all-time highs right now. Um, so I've actually found NASDAQ, and I'm curious for you again because I know

[5:05:49] depending on the type of trader trader you are, you might like a different market better. Do you like NASDAQ better right now or do you like ES? Right. Yes, I don't gravitate to as much, but the longs are a lot quote unquote easier,

[5:06:03] personality. There's not really a right or wrong answer, but what do you notice in your personality there, Forest? >> So, the way that I trade is I always have them up side by side, >> and I think of ES as the dog and uh

[5:06:16] >> Okay. >> Um, so it's inherently more volatile. >> Um, which I think people struggle with, but I 100% agree. It's much easier to have a solid read on what's going to occur if you just focus on the S&P 500.

[5:06:32] to trail. It's going to be a lot more volatile, but in general, because there's not a one to one correlation, they're very strongly correlated. Um, so though they're both linear products, right? you get x amount of dollars per

[5:06:46] point, you're going to make more on the same move in a day trading the NASDAQ versus trading the same thesis on the S&P 500. So, most of my trades, 99% of my trades are on the NASDAQ, but I will actually do my analysis

[5:07:01] >> Yeah. >> Um, and again, those divergences, like divergences or where they diverge is really, really important as a trader because again, they're both highly efficient products. Right. Right. No,

[5:07:15] 100%. I think I think you make a really good point there. Uh I know we have some of these memory names selling off here. Uh a helping a little bit of the downside pressure we've been seeing in NASDAQ there. Uh do you have any two

[5:07:27] some of these tech names? Not that we trade them as much, right? Like I'll are still kind of the indices like we kind of just touched on as well, but it is always kind of interesting to see the stories play out. And I mean the the run

[5:07:40] that these memory names went on over this over the course of the last this understated, right? I mean I think we saw Micron trading at um I think we saw bucks not too long ago and then I mean

[5:07:54] like a euphoric type rally all the way to highs at about a,251. not not that these are the prime products that you know some people trade but what is your overall thoughts on you know the memory names and memory space

[5:08:08] and just conversation to do with that topic as a whole you find it interesting >> I'll say this yeah I mean I'm I'm a tech guy we all you know use computers uh it's you can see it as two ways one they're propping up the the market so

[5:08:21] if you want to talk more fundamental analysis we don't do that too much as things >> let's get into the fundamentals you know [laughter] >> they've appreciated an astronomical

[5:08:34] amount, like maybe too much. Now, it's up for the market to decide what that is, but it would not be unreasonable for them to pull back quite a bit, quite a lot. And if they're propping up, if that's one of the legs of the market,

[5:08:48] going to happen? And I mean, if you look at ENQ and ES on like the monthly chart, even though it's a very, you know, steep slope line, if we start to see those been carrying the market, there's a trend line on the monthly where we can

[5:09:04] come way back, even down to like, it sounds crazy, 20,000, >> Still, don't say that. >> Still, still maintain our uptrend. We could come down to 20,000 and still be in a monthly uptrend, right? That would

[5:09:17] be the higher low. Uh, so I think people really need to have that context. One, opportunity, right? It's a great investing opportunity, but if I could mean, heck, that's amazing. Yeah, there there it is right there. Right. Look at

[5:09:30] >> You could have a higher low right at 20,000 off that trend line on the >> So, to answer your point, I think, yeah, the massive appreciation um AI, you know, stocks really holding up the market. There's a a global race going on

[5:09:43] right now for I think just across the world for people to to have the best AI industry and it's an all it's all an ecosystem. Cool. >> Is that going to go on forever? Maybe, maybe not. But the the the fact that

[5:09:57] >> Yeah. >> Uh means that they can come down uh surprised. >> Yeah. No. And I and I mean it's funny because we we get so conditioned and I when I say we I just mean all market

[5:10:10] a down day and it feels so aggressive and it's like let's zoom out a little uptrend and that selloff that we had seen at the end of the last last week was barely a drop in the bucket. So you bring up a great point there. But uh we

[5:10:23] us. I appreciate you taking the time to come hang out for a little bit and talk about markets. It's always a great time. Um, but with that being said, we'll see think it'll be interesting to see how this divergence plays out between ES and

[5:10:36] us. >> Thank you for having me and uh, watch guys. With that being said, we're going to go to a quick break here. Uh, thanks got a lot more amazing content coming up next. And with that being said, we'll

[5:10:50] Don't go anywhere. Stay tuned. We'll see you guys in a second.

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[5:13:56] I'm Chris Veio. He's Glenn Frybarger. We're here for a quick 15 minutes, 13 update, what we like to call the Forex Focus. Glenn. Uh, markets here, broadly speaking, are relatively static today. The dollar is falling off a little bit

[5:14:11] here. I think we can go right to the charts. Dixie approaching its lowest close that we've seen since mid June. You have some interesting information to You have some interesting information to share with us, though.

[5:14:31] >> That's all right. It it would probably make for a more entertaining show if we just talked over each other um and said said exactly the opposite without knowing it. It's a fun idea. Um but no, you you said dollars falling off a

[5:14:45] little bit, but I'm actually surprised at how much it's holding in compared to >> you know everything kind of going against it right now. Um and and the

[5:14:57] magnitude of the move. We're still not seeing much volatility in the dollar space right now, which for some people good thing, for some bad. Um, it is what it is. Uh, but I look no further than, you know, this uh Australian dollar,

[5:15:12] which is, uh, you know, back at its recent highs. But, um, this not running away is is the surprise of the day for me. Um, >> the chart looks constructive. you have a a strong metals move. You have risk

[5:15:29] sentiment um you know wavering but nothing on a macro level really holding nothing on a macro level really holding down um equities. Uh that's all kind of more of the earnings play. So this one I I would expected you know on today uh to

[5:15:43] be a green day. Sure, but only up 10 pips. That's the surprise to me.

[5:16:27] inherently I'm I'm missing? A growth picture from Australia hasn't been, you know, the strongest, but not falling apart by any means. Um

[5:17:16] in terms of intraday trading for the dollar. But I did want to cut over to some slides. Uh we talked about this on Monday. Uh

[5:17:37] beyond the yen uh and looking at a certain Swiss Frank to see if that might be the more worthwhile trade if you are interested in a carry trade. carry trade of course uh speaking to in the spot market when you hold a position

[5:17:51] overnight um you can either be debited or credited uh a difference an amount that uh approximately equates to the interest rate differential between the two currencies the the one funding and

[5:18:06] one uh year long. So the one year long you're getting that yield from uh the one you're selling inherently when you trade these pairs uh you are funding with and funding with a currency that has around a 0% interest rate can often

[5:18:20] has around a 0% interest rate can often lead to uh sustainably collecting that credit overnight. And the yen has been uh the fan favorite for years now, dare uh the fan favorite for years now, dare I say decades. Um has been the uh the

[5:18:35] funding currency with its ultra low rates. But that might be coming not rates. But that might be coming not necessarily to an end. Will Japan be uh neck andneck with the US here in terms of how high their interest rate goes?

[5:18:49] Maybe not, but narrowing for sure. And with this week's intervention, not only from Japan, but from the US participating as well, not wanting Japan

[5:19:01] to sell more of our treasuries to finance their yen buys. It looks like finance their yen buys. It looks like the gap is starting to narrow here for um using the yen as a funding currency. BJ at 1% um and and not looking like

[5:19:18] they could be done there. Um, so that already uh merits some hesitation for already uh merits some hesitation for people getting into this long dollar yen um as a carry trade vehicle. On the next slide, we can go into uh where else

[5:19:35] we're looking Switzerland. Uh a lot of these problems that I just articulated not showing up when you look at Switzerland domestically uh and their currency. As a result, we've had not only uh the Swiss National Bank keeping

[5:19:51] rates at zero, not scared to go into the negatives as Japan once did. And uh on top of that, earlier this year, we had the SMB say that if their currency gets the SMB say that if their currency gets too strong, we could uh we being the

[5:20:06] Swiss National Bank step in to make sure our currency is not too strong. though intervention the other way that would benefit a potential carry trader in this

[5:20:18] Let's go to the next slide and cover what the math says. And this is where it gets super interesting because when we compare um here I'm looking I get this swap credit from the Tasty FX platform.

[5:20:32] Um either in your Tasty Trade app or on the native Tasty FX platform. you'll see the native Tasty FX platform. you'll see quoted in pips the the USD JPY that yen quoted in pips the the USD JPY that yen pair wins out ahead of the Swiss Frank

[5:20:45] but when you start to factor in uh the pieces that actually matter to us as US pieces that actually matter to us as US traders um it it turns out that the dollar Swiss Frank comes out ahead here we we we've covered uh or we're

[5:20:59] comparing one lot position so uh a notional size of $100,000 um and when you take into account the spot price uh most um the biggest driver

[5:21:12] here when you convert it all to US dollars you're actually getting uh this was taken yesterday's credit um you're getting almost double uh the per night credited to your account as you'd get in this Japanese yen and then on top of

[5:21:29] that um you know leverage margin a double-sided sword for sure but here in the US uh the margin rate on Swiss Frank also can be in in a US trader's favor

[5:21:45] commanding only 3% as opposed to 5% currently. Um and then the the last >> which makes sense by the way you should be expected to put up more margin for a volatile and given how the yen's been trading it's obviously more volatile.

[5:22:01] >> exactly right. And and you bring up uh the piece that most people who don't carry trade say first and foremost, yeah, that's all good and well, but is it picking up pennies in front of a steamroller? Let's go to the next slide

[5:22:14] because what Chris is saying is more volatility can lead to greater price swings. And when we think about this credit we're collecting, price action uh on the underlying is absolutely a key driver and you could have an adverse

[5:22:30] move that erases all the credit you've collected from this carry trade. Uh and now when we compare the two charts here, dollar Swiss Frank and dollar yen for that carry trade, you'd be going long in both of these pairs. And of course, past

[5:22:47] performance not indicative of any future returns. But when you're looking at which of these two to go long, historically, we're coming off of 40-year highs in this dollar yen. Whereas this dollar Swiss Frank

[5:23:03] relative to historic price action. So these [music] things ever changing. But um if you're looking to get long uh either of these pairs for the purposes of carry trading, just wanted to call out that um when you consider all the

[5:23:19] variables, dollar frank might gain some popularity uh not only in the US but across the globe as the funding currency of [music] choice. So I'm looking at a a little macro dashboard I keep together here. Headline

[5:23:33] inflation in Japan is 1.7%. For the most recent reading for Switzerland, it's recent reading for Switzerland, it's 0.4% year-over-year. Uh, Japanese real 0.4% year-over-year. Uh, Japanese real GDP is 0.5%. Swiss is 0.4. So, Japan has

[5:23:46] lower inflation, lower growth. It also has a higher unemployment rate. They do a 5.2% unemployment rate for Switzerland, 2.5% for Japan. So, just on those three macro variables alone, like

[5:23:59] central bank is going to see low inflation and higher relative unemployment and modest growth. They're going to think that they can keep rates low. The current policy rate is 0%. The real rate

[5:24:11] negative 0.4% in real terms, which is not as low as it is for Japan. But when you look at Japan's mix, you could see why on the margins you're to me is really interesting. The other day we were talking about a dollar Swiss

[5:24:26] because I wanted to do something else and didn't like how the market was bounce off of the 50. It's still not invalid, but I just wanted to poke how the dollar was moving. And so, I'm not upset because the dollar has come

[5:24:40] off the past two sessions, but the fact that it is still stabilizing here, like rate differentials being everything, the US real policy rate right now is plus 0.1%. So, Fed funds rate, you know, adjusted for inflation, uh, that's a

[5:24:54] right now. So, I'm continuing to poke around in the dollar Swiss realm. Dixie itself is continuing to hold up here um off the uptrend from the January and those May lows. So, the next few days are going to be instrumental here.

[5:25:07] >> Is this just a temporary pullback before we make our way towards new highs or was we're going to have for the rest of the year effectively is the way I'm looking at this as kind of a you know binomial outcome right now. But hey, we're gonna

[5:25:21] for the update. Switzerland again, really low rates. It's the new carry Glenn's saying at least. >> Thanks, Chris. we have more great programming coming up next. Of course, live trading continues

[5:25:35] next. Of course, live trading continues here on Tasty Life.

[5:25:51] >> Explain pots. Hm. Pot odds is my favorite term. Uh, but pot odds in the poker world or gambling world refers to having a greater payout than your implied odds would would suggest. So, let's say I

[5:26:05] have 3 to one odds to win a pot, but the pot is giving me 4:1 odds to make that value over time. So, in trading, let's say you have a defined risk debit or

[5:26:17] credit spread that's currently at a max loss, and let's say there's 30 days left close that position because you're already at max loss. You can only go up from there. So, in that scenario, that would be a positive pot odd scenario or

[5:26:30] something that would give us pot odds to stay in.

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[5:28:17] >> Good afternoon. I'm Tom Preston. 100 p.m. on Wednesday afternoon. Let's get p.m. on Wednesday afternoon. Let's get trading here for the next half an hour. trading here for the next half an hour. Okay. So, um let's just check the S&Ps.

[5:28:32] Yeah, up 431. They came back a little bit today. Had a little rally. Um before we go on, let's see if we can do um yeah, we always like to do or I like to do uh one of these unbalanced butterflies. Uh

[5:28:49] going into uh these zero DTE. Let's check them out. uh these zero DTE. Let's check them out. Let me clear this out. what I have. Um, Let me clear this out. what I have. Um, buy the 35, sell two

[5:29:03] buy the 35, sell two of these is a probably 30 cents for this butterfly. Drag it down a strike. 25 cent credit. Let's do this one. Let's do Did I do

[5:29:20] Let's do this one. Let's do Did I do that right? Yeah. Let's do uncheck. So, I screwed it up. Uh, buying the 35s. I screwed it up. Uh, buying the 35s. Sell two of the two of the 30s.

[5:29:35] Sell two of the two of the 30s. Take this down one. And then go back into here and buy one of the 20s for a

[5:29:47] into here and buy one of the 20s for a let's say 25 cent credit. Let's see if I let's say 25 cent credit. Let's see if I get 25 cents for this. Um, buy one. Sell two by one. Maximizes value. If we get down to 77

[5:30:02] 7730 by the end of the day, let's ship it. Nothing done. May have to wait for that a little bit. If we get a selloff, a little bit. If we get a selloff, member. Um uh that is short a 77207725

[5:30:17] member. Um uh that is short a 77207725 put spread in there filled and we got a teeny tiny sell-off. Teeny tiny sell off or they just took pity on me and gave me a fill in my little butterfly here. Anyway, that's uh the S&P butterfly.

[5:30:29] Let's check the VIX really quickly. VIX is down below the 16 handle again. Um, is down below the 16 handle again. Um, yeah, it's just the market is just going going nowhere fast today and that just kills the VIX. That just kills the VIX.

[5:30:43] And remember, the S&P options don't have to trade to pro to influence the VIX price. VIX's price. Is that correct? VIX's. Yeah, VIX's price. Um, like I was

[5:30:55] talking about this with Chris Veio yesterday on last call. And why would we yesterday on last call. And why would we see the market up and the VIX up? Um, that's because traders are bidding up the prices of out of the

[5:31:09] money calls, out of the money puts. Whether they're traded or not doesn't matter. When the bid ask spreads go or when the bid ask is raised up um and increases the theoretical value of those out of the money S&P options that jacks

[5:31:23] the VIX up. So, that's what was happening yesterday. Um, let's get into some of the things I'm looking at today. Um, Um, Disney is up 3.69%

[5:31:36] today. They came out with earnings. I guess they did pretty well by by all accounts. Let's look at a chart for what it's worth. These are the charts I was looking at earlier um with the futures. They had a nice little rally. They're

[5:31:49] They had a nice little rally. They're off um their highs. Okay, fine. Um trading at 10178. Let's see if we can do a short-term markets are like. Markets aren't bad in here. Um, you know, the 100 puts 40 47,

[5:32:07] you [clears throat] know, it's Disney, it's not S&P, so 99 puts, 20 bit at 26. than I'd like to see, but that's that's what they're giving us. Um, stocks at

[5:32:19] 10180, so right around say 102, down two bucks, up two bucks. say 102, down two bucks, up two bucks. The 100 puts are 47. The 104 calls are The 100 puts are 47. The 104 calls are uh 40. Given that it's 20 cents below um

[5:32:35] given that it's 20 cents below 102, that's going to be a little bit that's going to be a little bit depressed. Let's go out. If we sell these, what do we get? So, $1,800 for a max

[5:32:47] profit $80. That's not high enough. Let's turn this into an iron condor. Let's turn this into an iron condor. um 56 cents for this. like to get 2/3 of the width of the strikes and 2/3 of two width of the

[5:33:02] strikes and 2/3 of two width of the strikes for this is 98 to 100. $2 104 to strikes for this is 98 to 100. $2 104 to 106 $2. So this [clears throat] um I would like to get 66 65 cents for it, but with two days to go, I'm not going

[5:33:15] to get that. Let's just sell. Let's just route this at 56 cents. Unless anybody has any strong opinions about this thing going up or down

[5:33:35] not, I'm shipping this thing. Submit. Submit. Let's move on. Watch list. Um so here's the deal with Let's check out SpaceX. SpaceX is dead. SpaceX

[5:33:48] and I'm long some call spread much higher. [laughter] Bought a call spread thinking we might might have a rally. And apparently SpaceX in their first uh first earnings announcement last night they um you know they're spending a lot

[5:34:03] of money. Okay, that's no great surprise. So they crushed it despite hey everybody should be bullish on this thing. So, I I [clears throat] agreed with Elon, thought it might rally. It

[5:34:16] didn't. So, I'm getting killed on that. Did a one lot. It stinks. And I still have a day or so to go. But what the news was in SpaceX apparently, from what I hear, is that they're going to start using Nvidia, I think, exclusively

[5:34:32] to they're they're going to buy Nvidia chips to run whatever they do at SpaceX. So, that's pushing Nvidia up. And if you look at look at um the mag seven stocks of all these

[5:34:45] stocks, Apple down 2.24, Meta down.77, they're all down. Google down 342 with the exception of Nvidia with the exception of Nvidia. So let's just see. I've had some pretty good luck trading Nvidia. I have loaded up here

[5:35:02] the with nine days to go the 215 217 half put spread 2 and a half bucks wide collects a 90 credit again third of the width of the strike third of the width of the strikes between that would be about 85

[5:35:17] or so um you know just take 2.5 divided by um you know just take 2.5 divided by three um about 85 or so 90 cents exceeds three um about 85 or so 90 cents exceeds that if I knock the Um,

[5:35:34] credit the credit's pretty close for this 7day as opposed to 9 day. Let's take it back. 73. And what all I'm doing is using this 73. And what all I'm doing is using this expiration button to to reduce the days

[5:35:49] to expiration on the trade. So, two days to go. 62 cents. That's not enough. Um, I'm going to go out to this one here with five days. and we'll see how it goes. Um I know you're asking, "Hey Tom, what's the skew

[5:36:02] you're asking, "Hey Tom, what's the skew doing?" Um stocks at 22067, right? Basically 220. So down 2 and 1/2 points, up 2 and 1/2 points. Um the 217 points, up 2 and 1/2 points. Um the 217 have puts are 310. The 225 calls are

[5:36:16] 380. SKUsported to the upside. Let's sell a put spread in Nvidia and go along sell a put spread in Nvidia and go along for the ride. 85 cents. Submit filled. take a fill on Nvidia. Let's go to the watch list. [clears throat] Um,

[5:36:33] let's go back to my little cherry bomb. And what I do is, so I created this watch list, cherry bomb. Um, just cuz, you know, that's what we're calling a segment for now. And if you want to create a watch list of your own, uh,

[5:36:46] just click on that plus button and create watch list. create a watch list name, you know, super duper super duper stocks, whatever you want to call it, and then add in symbols as you as you want. So, I'm going to add uh I want to

[5:36:59] talk about UNNG for a second. So, I've just added uh UNNG to the list. Okay, so UNNG, somebody had a question um on the on the chat a couple days ago um about

[5:37:11] you what I was doing with my 10 put in UNNG and I have I shorted um a put uh with 16 days I short this put

[5:37:24] a put uh with 16 days I short this put for about 31 cents. So the the market has the mark UNG has obviously dropped. It rallied up a little bit today. It was higher higher than it was. I was just breaking even. Now I'm down a little bit

[5:37:38] breaking even. Now I'm down a little bit of money. Let's just let's sell I don't know two days. I hate doing this. I really don't like doing this. Um you know selling calls against it. I'm not going to do that.

[5:37:51] Let's go out to with two days. Let's go to seven days. See what we get for the to seven days. See what we get for the 10ens. I mean, we could sell the um kind of defeats the purpose selling the 10 10 call against it. Um I'm I'm going

[5:38:07] to I'm not going to do anything for UNNG. I'm just going to hold on to that and see if it continues to rally. Um, alternatively, I could roll this out, basically lose about an 8 cents on that. Roll this out

[5:38:22] about an 8 cents on that. Roll this out to the 9 and a half puts and reestablish at the 9 and a half strike. If I thought UNNG was going to rally, I'm going to deal with that later. Let's go into the watch list for some new trades. Um,

[5:38:36] uh, what did we do? We talked about Disney Love. So, Southwest Airlines, I was looking at some obviously with a drop in crude oil. some obviously with a drop in crude oil. Crude oil is down 64 cents right now.

[5:38:51] Um, it's pushing up the prices of a airlines love cheap fuel and airlines love cheap fuel and understandably. So, this is uh Love has a nice little rally in here. Loves, of all the airlines, and we can argue back

[5:39:06] and forth about which one we want to trade, but of all the airlines, Love has earnings are coming out in September 3rd. Um, they're not bad. The markets are okay in

[5:39:19] they're not bad. The markets are okay in here. Um, $49. You know, the skew is pointed to the upside. Okay. Um, if I sold the 47 puts, 23 days to go, [gasps] let's say, you know, 82% probability of

[5:39:36] making half uh half the max profit of 104 about $52. And I'm going to I wouldn't hit the hit a bid here. I would try to get like 110 a bid here. I would try to get like 110 for this put. Um$110 versus

[5:39:51] for this put. Um$110 versus $776 of capital. Not bad. Not bad. And you can't I mean you could do this naked put out here. You know you could go out to the expected move here. Um let's see what we get if we knock this down to a

[5:40:06] fewer number of days. And the only reason I like to go for a fewer number of days so we can get a resolution to the trade. This is the markets are too wide. I think it's 838. No. No thank you. Let's

[5:40:22] think it's 838. No. No thank you. Let's bump this up. Take this down here.

[5:40:37] What do I have? Let's minimize this. 16 days. I push this out to here. I'm going to push this out to you. The 45s. I like this one. Um, $55 max profit. 80 88 88% probability making about 20 $28 on that versus $580 of

[5:40:55] buying power. You could turn this into a vertical. Um you're not going to get a great credit for it. I'm just going to try I'm going to just do a naked short put in here at 59. Let's try 60. Let's see if somebody

[5:41:08] bites. Let's see if somebody wants to play. Um BW Daniel Matia

[5:41:20] and yeah, I'm shorting iron condor and AMD. Um, that is freaking me out with a selloff today. Again, do earnings really matter? I I put I put that out to the crowd. Do earnings matter? We come out with earnings, you know, the stocks be

[5:41:36] like Google. I guess Google did pretty well. Delivered decent numbers. Stocks don't. What do you want? Um, BWXT, I don't know what they do. Don't really care. It's all about whether it's liquid. So, the stock's about 170 bucks.

[5:41:49] liquid. So, the stock's about 170 bucks. Down 10, up 10. Um, skew is pointed to the upside. Let's just sell. I don't know. Hey, just because he he brings it up. I'm not getting a great credit for this. Five

[5:42:05] points wide. I'd like to get um what about a $160. I'm not getting Let's push about a $160. I'm not getting Let's push this out to here. So, if I go out to 44 days on this, I don't love the liquidity in here. I

[5:42:21] I don't love the liquidity in here. I don't I don't love it. Um, don't I don't love it. Um, so Daniel, I I'm going to I again, I don't know anything about BWXT, so I'm going to I'm going to pass on this. Um,

[5:42:34] going to I'm going to pass on this. Um, let's go in to the watch list. Let's go let's go in to the watch list. Let's go into Oxy. Oxidental. Um, Oxy should be doing pretty well. Um, their earnings are today. I believe their earnings are

[5:42:48] are today. Um, this afternoon, I think they're after the close. I know some of the stocks came out this morning, but if we look at this, markets are pretty tight in here. This is this is pretty tight. Um, stocks at 5429

[5:43:03] right around here. Down two bucks, up two bucks. So, the skew is just How about if we sell this? Um, how about we do an iron condor?

[5:43:16] Um, how about we do an iron condor? Yink yink 49. It's not bad. I mean, for two days, let's push this out to Yeah, this is a let's push this out to Yeah, this is a little bit a little bit closer. Let's go

[5:43:31] little bit a little bit closer. Let's go go out to our expected move. Come on. It's right there. Yeah, let's do this one for 53 cents. Anybody want to look at a chart? Um,

[5:43:44] Oxy Chart. It's kind of noodling around. Um, I with companies like Oxidental and all that is they're suffering because the price of oil's down, but they are stocks. They are equities. Uh, who knows

[5:43:58] what's going to happen to this. Let's ship it at markets are not bad. Let's ship it and see what happens. 53 cents. Fire away. Filled 53 cents.

[5:44:10] So, let's look at AMD quick. I am short quick. I am short um the 477 half 480 put spread. Um I

[5:44:23] covered the short call spread. I screw it up. That's why I'm have this little extra short call spread up here. Um I'm going to let that go. I don't I mean I'm willing to take the risk in AMD. The these puts were threatened. The stock

[5:44:39] just crapped out last night. Opened up much lower and was right there. I forget much lower and was right there. I forget what the low was. The low low is 478. So it was below my shortput strike. And hey, it's a defined risk trade. So I

[5:44:53] hung on. I'm just going to hang on to this and um and see how it treats me through the afternoon. It's that's just a bet. Um, so that's what's going on for a bet. Um, so that's what's going on for me and AMD. Um, UNG, Uber,

[5:45:08] uh, Google, let's see, let's let's do Uber. Um, Uber, I guess, had earnings. Um, they did not I don't think they did

[5:45:21] well. I don't think people liked Uber. It's down 6.71%. Um, I have loaded up here short call vertical. Um, the stock's down from when vertical. Um, the stock's down from when I was looking at it earlier. Skews 76 76

[5:45:35] bucks. Let's say, let's clear this out. Uh, 76 bucks. Up two bucks, down two bucks. Skews to the upside a little bit. Skew Skews to the upside a little bit. Skew is to the upside. Um, could we do

[5:46:04] an iron condor. I run condor 40 cents. any opinions about um um Uber? Uber Ruber

[5:46:29] this one. Let's do 40. 40 cents. Ship it. Bing. 40 cents. 2 days. All right, let's go into prediction markets because I'm thinking these are kind of fun. I did a couple of prediction markets earlier today. Uh bet on the Bitcoin

[5:46:44] earlier today. Uh bet on the Bitcoin hourly and what else did I do? hourly and what else did I do? I did the um the NASDAQ hourly and it's kind of fun. And so like I was talking about yesterday, one of the one of the

[5:46:57] reasons you may want to do Bitcoin or or excuse me, prediction markets is that not only are you betting on the event and not the event's impact on a stock or and not the event's impact on a stock or the overall market, you can bet on just

[5:47:12] the event itself. So I'm going to go 1 hour. So at 2:00 p.m., so in about what time is it now? 1:20. So about 40 minutes. Um what do we think, folks? minutes. Um what do we think, folks? Bitcoin above 6460 and right now it's

[5:47:27] Bitcoin above 6460 and right now it's 6477 bullish or bearish on um on um on Bitcoin. So these things are all they're all probability based. So this is so you mean prediction is illegal I guess. um

[5:47:45] what they are is just the it's cumulative buying and selling that drives the price of this which is the which is the probability of making which is the probability of making money. So if if if I bet a yes on this

[5:47:57] um I pay 84 cents the max value it's going to be is 100. So I'd make $19 $20 right now. So that's the way it works. Um yeah, lot less states on the lawsuit

[5:48:09] bandwagon. Could be. Um it depends on how much um how much uh their their lobbyists could pay the pay the politicians. So I'm going to just do bullish on this above. Let's do 600. It's Yeah, let's just buy.

[5:48:27] And the way you do it is going to set this $100. this $100. So, I can make I'm I'm going to risk 99. So, I can make I'm I'm going to risk 99. Um it to make 21.

[5:48:40] Um let's ship it. See what happens. Submit And there are fees involved. You know, you pay a couple of bucks of of uh here.

[5:48:52] I'll just show you that if you do um get to click on it and then review price prediction. And you know it the fees are like $2.72. So it's not free, fees are like $2.72. So it's not free, right? Um there's that's a commission to

[5:49:07] do it and you can get out of this stuff. Let's go into another one. Let's do copper daily crude oil hourly. Let's do WTI hourly. So WTI 7333. I've been

[5:49:21] WTI hourly. So WTI 7333. I've been burned buying buying um um I want to show you something. Um, I've been burned buying crude oil. So, let's bet no. If it's going to be above

[5:49:37] 7529, I'm going to say no. So, if I bet no, and I bet 100 bucks. So, I'm betting that it will not So, I'm betting that it will not be above uh 7529

[5:49:52] be above uh 7529 in an hour, less than an hour. So, let's in an hour, less than an hour. So, let's ship this off. Submit order. I can do ship this off. Submit order. I can do this all day. And so, that's a um that's

[5:50:04] this all day. And so, that's a um that's a that's a no bet. Okay. So, I can bet yes, something is going to occur or no, that thing is not going to occur. That's how it works. Why not just buy some Bitcoin? Yeah, I could buy Bitcoin. Um

[5:50:17] Bitcoin? Yeah, I could buy Bitcoin. Um the difference is this is the the the payout is known in a very short amount of time. That's why you might use a prediction market like this. But yeah, you could go buy Bitcoin. You could do

[5:50:30] buy Bitcoin as a scalp. You know, I'll buy, you know, $100 worth of Bitcoin, same thing. You could absolutely do that. Um anyway, this stuff is bouncing around. Let's go back to our watch list. Um,

[5:50:46] Let's go back to our watch list. Um, let's go into Google. So, Google Where's my little Google? So, Google getting crushed today. Down

[5:51:01] 3.86%. Um, they they have earnings coming out on September 4th. Who knows? There's some story about Google. Um, you know, it is it's one of the biggest.

[5:51:16] I don't even even know, sorry, wrong wrong tab. I don't even know if the Mag 7 matter anymore, but it's down the most of that Mag 7. Uh, just just how Nvidia of that Mag 7. Uh, just just how Nvidia is the leader, the single uh rally here.

[5:51:31] Um, Google's down 3.81%. The biggest drop of all those seven stocks. Of course, they're different businesses, but they they're semi-related in a way, you know, all these high-tech things. So, could we do a contrarian bet on

[5:51:47] So, could we do a contrarian bet on Google? Um, stocks at 363, right in between here. So, down two and a half bucks, up two and a half bucks. The bucks, up two and a half bucks. The skews

[5:52:03] think. Yeah, we might be arguing with the broader market in this two and a half bucks. Let's see if we get 60 cents for this. Yeah, let's do this one. Um, for this. Yeah, let's do this one. Um, I'm just bullish on Google because why

[5:52:18] not? Um, I don't think there's any premium left in the twoday options. Uh, maybe maybe do this one.

[5:52:32] Yeah, let's do this one. Three two days 357 half 360 put spread 85 cents ship it. Boom. Working working. How's our SPX doing?

[5:52:45] S&P 749. We are long 749. We are long this. Where's my butterflies? My stuff activity. I got to dig through the trades. Um SPX here. So, I'm what I need

[5:53:02] at S is SPXM 7730 uh at expiration. So, we're 14 bucks away. All right. Um I got to sign off. Uh production team is saying, "Hey, TP, you've gone on enough with this trading

[5:53:18] you've gone on enough with this trading stuff." Um yeah, so in Guen Zero, um yeah, elite AI AI guy left Google, that's why. Whatever. you know, it's still stock's down. They look for anything that could justify the stock

[5:53:33] dropping. That's that that's how I think news works. Anyway, folks, um this is um this is just my own trading. This is my approach. If you decide to do this, that's on you. These are not trade recommend recommendations. If you do

[5:53:48] decide to trade these things, um please do not take any more risk than you are do not take any more risk than you are comfortable with.

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[5:57:05] Practice. Welcome to the show today. Welcome to the broadcast, man. Welcome that we are trying to do. I'm so glad that you guys are here because it is only because of you all that we can do what we do. Welcome to the expected move

[5:57:20] butterfly victory lap edition of the program. Man, we nailed that AMD butterfly. We nailed the AMD butterfly like you can only dream of. And so if Network, I would actually bounce on over to YouTube because you can communicate

[5:57:33] with your brethren who are also watching the show and you guys can comment on the first butterfly that I've hit in over 10 years on the show. You can communicate the bears, and you can maybe just commiserate with everybody because this

[5:57:48] course, your questions and your comments them in the chat because I want to hear them. The algo is craving that information so I can use it against us at a later date. So Laura, bring us in,

[5:58:03] guys. Take a look at what's going on. Either risk-free instrument, also known as the NASDAQ futures, down 120 on the day. You got the boomers up 384. You got the Russell 3000, down 10. And so a little

[5:58:19] little bit. You got notes up a little bit. You got oil down 50 cents. You got UB40 up a little bit. You got Look at the shifties, man. Nothing like 170 points to the upside to just kind of clear the old

[5:58:35] sinuses. I mean, there is a little something for all my gold bugs out there. And uh yeah, gold up 130. What is silver doing? Is it back to 120? Hang on, hang on, hang on. Oh, I can't use my Oh, no. Oh, there we go. There we go. I

[5:58:49] like I can't use my drawing tools, but I can. Silver is uh Oh, wait. That's not right. I was like 83. No. Okay. 63. Okay. 62 and some change. Okay. That's a pretty big move, though. Out of silver. And so, man, the metals are excited. The

[5:59:03] Dow's excited. The British pound is up. The euro is up. Volatility futures are down 50 cents. spot volatility, the OVIX, that guy is down 85 cents, down to 1565. But man, none of that compares. It all

[5:59:19] pales in comparison to the victory lap that we are about to take on this AMD You can see, I mean, we've got ammunition to fight back against the P&L day bros, the P&L Open Bros. Again, the

[5:59:33] first time in from theory to practice history that this has indeed happened. But AMD, if I open up the butterfly here, I mean, this is it, man. Even I can't screw this one up. Like, I mean, if I keep yammering out, which of course

[5:59:46] I don't even think I can screw this up. at the butterfly, right? Look at that butterfly. It is beautiful. The short [laughter] the short strike on this butterfly as we draw a series of

[6:00:01] concentric circles. The circle on that butterfly. Let's get another one. So if you go like really deep in there, you get that little guy right there, that 485 strike. That's what you want to hit. Now again, I'm no Julius Spina, but AMD

[6:00:16] at 486 and we want it at 485. That's a pretty good outcome. Like that's a pretty good ending price for us, I think. Now again, this is a $500 stock. of threaded the needle inside of the needle at this point, I think. And so as

[6:00:30] handsomely on this butterfly. Like you can see we bought this guy for $4.98. It's currently marking at 2271. I can't even count how many beus that is, but it's a lot. Like that's going to be breakfast, lunch, dinner, bonefish for

[6:00:45] days and days and days and weeks and weeks and weeks. And so when we look at this butterfly, uh, man, it just it was perfect. It was perfect. They overshot the number the number came out, you know, advanced money destroyer came out

[6:00:58] and said, "Look, we're still destroying money everywhere." like it is a global phenomenon. It is a galactic phenomenon at this point and the stock got crushed and so because of because of that our butterfly was looking good. Now it did

[6:01:11] overshoot to the downside last night a little bit and so I was a little bit concerned. I mean I spent at least 15 maybe 17 seconds on this guy and I'm like I don't know man that looks like maybe it overshot the mark a little bit.

[6:01:23] But if we take a look at like a Yeah. We take a look at like a 15minute there's obviously your number. It's pretty pretty clear. There's your gap sets that might be out there. But you can see, yeah, they overshot it down

[6:01:36] can see, yeah, they overshot it down there down to about 465 or so. And so it looked like, man, you know, as long as it stays above 457 or 455, whatever that bottom short, whatever the bottom long strike is for a butterfly, then we'd be

[6:01:48] know, I was still thinking, ah, you know, this is another situation where, you know, you have a butterfly on and it's not just a directional move. Like, anymore. like you're not doing kind of these binary plays. You also have to get

[6:02:01] the magnitude of the of the move right. Like you can't be too right and you can't be too wrong. Like you kind of have to really middle it in a in a pretty big way. And so for for our purposes here, we got a little rebound

[6:02:13] back in AMD and it has since basically settled right into the center of our great about the butterflies before I take AMD off, we're probably rounding second. I say right about now. If you look at SpaceX,

[6:02:27] so we did a butterfly on this guy, too. And this one didn't work, right? This right now, I mean, we could actually get 58 cents for it. Man, I might actually do that. I assumed it would be worth nothing, but it's actually not. It's

[6:02:40] worth 59 cents right now. But either way, you know, we paid 371 for it. It's two butterflies cooking and you're like, okay, like I'd love to win on both, of saying. But if you happen to just win on one, especially with AMD, remember this

[6:02:54] had, you know, the Monday, Wednesday, Friday expiration. So, we took advantage of that by choosing that W uh that Wednesday expiration. With SpaceX, the reason why it still has uh value left is

[6:03:06] so, remember, right, it's gimmies and gotchas. It's always gimmies and you need to remember. You don't need anything else. You don't need deltas. gamas. You certainly don't need rows. All you need are gimmies and gotchas.

[6:03:20] That's it. Forever and always. The end. When you think about a butterfly going Monday or Tuesday into Friday, if you get the move that you want, then you paid as handsomely. So, that's the gotcha, of course. But the gimme, as we

[6:03:35] don't get the move that you want, if it goes in the other direction, then it can usually cling on to a little bit of value. And because of that, you have a your disposal. You can hang on to the trade and play it to the end of the

[6:03:49] mean, that's essentially what you're signing up for when you put the trade on fine. Or you can just, you know, cash it out. Say, "Hey, you know what? I actually had a nice trade on my other butterfly or I didn't have a nice trade

[6:04:01] whatever. And I just want to kind of, you know, take some take salvage some type of, you know, sunk cost out of this butterfly a little bit. And, you know, trade and save, you know, save a little bit of something." So when I think about

[6:04:15] SpaceX and AMD, it's always really important to remember that, you know, you only need one of them to be a winner, which is so unique for us most of the time, right? So if I'm selling premium most of the time, then

[6:04:28] what am I doing? I'm risking two to make one. I'm risking a$150 to make a dollar. I'm risking three to make a$125, whatever it might be. Like that's the price of admission. That's the cost of admission for high probability. I'm okay

[6:04:40] paying that. I'm totally fine paying that. But this is a different dynamic because now it's like, man, I can hit 50% and still come out ahead. Like I can you know, really far ahead. If you

[6:04:52] were so lucky to get on uh on AMD, I happen, and nobody knew what was going to happen other than the fact that it's advanced money destroyer for a reason, guys. It is for a reason. So again, you

[6:05:06] shouldn't underthink it, but if you just apply the appropriate amount of thought, it will lead you where you're trying to go. So, SpaceX did not work. Uh, we're going to take this guy off just because I kind of want to save my 65 cents. I'm

[6:05:21] kind of surprised and uh delighted by the fact that uh we can save a little bit of money on this um SpaceX butterfly. So, let's do that first. So, there you go. There's SpaceX. And then I do want to go back into AMD, of course.

[6:05:34] Uh, I want to close out of AMD and then I mean, you know, Autumn thought we had do literally have other plans tonight. But those plans are going to change. Like we had other things going on tonight with like friends and like other

[6:05:49] things going on. But that was before AMD. That was before we nailed this can go to Bonefish and you can get the 9 oz fillet. Like you don't have to get the 6 fillet tonight. We're going to go with the 9 oz guy for you. And so the

[6:06:02] meals, but uh but yeah, it should be good. And so let's go ahead and let's go ahead and we actually do that by the way. They don't even split meals like we so my wife and I so a lot of times like on the weekend and stuff like

[6:06:16] night, Saturday, whatever. I mean we do the same thing that every couple it's a global phenomenon. It's another galactic phenomenon. Everybody does the exact same thing, right? We all kind of concentrate on the national equilibrium

[6:06:28] night or Saturday night or obviously the best answer is both. And so with small I'll tell you a little secret, they keep eating. Like I keep feeding them and it's the craziest thing I've ever experienced. And so I just stopped

[6:06:44] feeding them. And so like at night when we go out, like when we get like takeout my kids. I'm like, "Just give them a bowl of oatmeal. Give them that 30 cent up with these kids, man. Like, I can't I can't afford to keep buying them, you

[6:06:57] know, Fresh Kitchen and Bonefish and, you know, uh, you know, Elportton for my can't afford that stuff, man. And so, we just we don't even feed them when we go mean, they get a little hangry about it, but uh, it's okay. And so, let's go

[6:07:11] but uh, it's okay. And so, let's go ahead now. Let's go into AMD. Uh, I point. Let's go ahead and, uh, yeah, let's do a full closure here. if you happen to have any banana nutty left, which we're already 10 minutes into the

[6:07:23] show, you're probably on number two. And so, I would go ahead, don't pour it out. Like, take a couple sips. Take a couple sips for the AMD trade. And uh and boom, there you go. Let's see what happens here. If we can get filled

[6:07:40] So, if we go to um no takers at 2273, let's try uh I see you guys in the chat and I appreciate you guys, man. Look at BBB finish here. Griffin Jones is here. Griffin email earlier super encouraging

[6:07:55] Great job out of Griffin. I'll tell you guys, you guys, you guys don't know in the chat for a while, but Griffin Jones is a straight gangster. Like, let him lead you to believe something other than that. But uh but I know the

[6:08:10] real work done. And so that's awesome stuff. All right, let's see here. 22 62 2258. Man, these markets, man. Like I don't even think Vinnie Batista is doing it

[6:08:25] Dairy Queen or something? He doesn't have time for these AMD pits anymore. 2255. Uh wow. This is not good. I mean, I know I know it's AMD, but even still, you know, I'm just I mean, why do we even

[6:08:40] have a mid price at this point? It's like, when is this number going to help helping me. I feel like I should just pick a number at random and I feel like filled. That's how it feels some other times. Other times, it's like lightning

[6:08:52] fast fills and everything is amazing. Uh but uh but yeah, so we're not getting but uh but yeah, so we're not getting filled on the mid price. Uh 2250. I mean, in fairness, I mean, it is AMD. get a four-legged strategy. And so,

[6:09:05] you've got to deal with all that. But, man, this is like I mean, I'm feel I feel the BEu's like they're evaporating right now. We've got a lot to work with, going to be able to do the 9 oz. Like, maybe tonight and maybe tomorrow night,

[6:09:21] but then I think come Friday, like when we go we get into the Bonefish rush. No, it's going to have to be a 6 oz. I think let's do a 22 45. Wow. I don't This is going to be the whole show. I mean, Laura, I saw Laura

[6:09:35] to get to you guys on surprises and delays, but we're not going to get to any of that because we've got to get this AMD, excuse me, trade filled and it's just not cooperating. So, let's see here. Let's do um

[6:09:49] 2242. Man, there, guys. Are you guys trading? I mean, obviously everybody's trading AMD today. Like, everybody's unwinding trades and maybe doing new trades. I'm

[6:10:01] like, am I going in the right direction? Ah, we got filled. Look at that. 2238. Look at that. I think we gave up like 20 cents uh to somebody out there. So, uh you're welcome, whoever was on the other side of that trade. But, uh but okay,

[6:10:13] let's take a look at what else is going on. Um uh yeah, let's see. SpaceX. Yeah, we did SpaceX and now we look at uh yeah, Apple was our short put spread. There's nothing to do there. The diamonds was

[6:10:27] nothing to do there. The diamonds was our long put vertical spread. There's nothing to do there other than the fact that so if we take a look at the short can see that, you know, we sold this guy for five bucks. It's currently marketing

[6:10:42] for 36 cents, which makes total sense, right? Because now the market is super, significantly from where it was when we put this guy on. So obviously both of to dry up, you know, pretty significantly. But you can notice that

[6:10:56] the long option in the back month is still clinging on to a decent amount of of value. Now, because of the significance of the move, you can see that we've obviously lost more on the long option than we gained on the short

[6:11:10] option because the long option was working from a much higher base. And so that would explain why we're down a few dollars on the trade. But keep in mind, we still have 44 days to go until September expiration. So there's a very

[6:11:23] long time until September expiration. So I'm not super concerned about that long can do between now and then. And I think the first thing that we should consider doing is let's go ahead and let's take our 515 put right here. And what if we

[6:11:38] just roll this guy like into this September weekly? And again, you know, you can do. You can make the spread wider. You can make the spread more and innovative things that you could apply to this strategy, but I think most

[6:11:53] of the time, one of the best, most effective, and also simplest methods of adjustment is just take that short option and just roll it out to a weekly option and just roll it out to a weekly option between where you are now and

[6:12:08] where the long option is set to expire. So the long option is set to expire in September monthly, which is September 18. So, if I roll out to September 4th, then that still gives me I basically create like a little mini diagonal for

[6:12:21] myself. Like I had the maxi diagonal, now I've got the mini diagonal. And diagonal after that. And we'll kind of see where that guy takes us. But when it see where that guy takes us. But when it comes to rolling out this this short

[6:12:34] option, I like doing this as opposed to getting super creative because you can see this is a pretty that's a pretty economically significant bit of premium improvement that we're able to pick up. It looks

[6:12:47] about 90 cents on the trade. Now, we only paid what did we pay for this diagonal? Like five or six bucks, I think. I mean, it wasn't that much, I second just so I can see. Yeah, we paid $7 for it,

[6:13:02] insignificant. I mean, nothing is insignificant, of course. It all it all matters, uh, clearly, but when it comes to $7 versus like three or$4 dollars, $7 is a little bit more significant. So, this is approximately 2% of the account,

[6:13:15] maybe a little bit less than 2% of the account. And so because of that, you know, rolling this guy out for 80 for 90 cents or so is not a bad place to be because that takes a dollar off of the overall

[6:13:28] basis and essentially leaves us with the same trade that we had on and it gives us at least one more rolling opportunity to move the short option into the back month with the long option. Because remember like what is the final

[6:13:43] destination of a diagonal spread? The final destination of a diagonal spread is going to be a vertical spread, right? So, either it works in one of the early cycles or it works early on or whatever and you take it off at some profit,

[6:13:56] that's great. If it doesn't work, you can keep moving that short option until it finally lands in the same cycle as the long option. That is the final stop destination. I think they're on what final destination eight or nine or 10 by

[6:14:09] now. And so if we're thinking about final destination, you know, 11, like with here today, then we move this guy out to the vertical spread in the back next to that long option. And then we just end up with a with a vertical

[6:14:23] if we get to that point, it's no different than any long vertical spread where you need the guy to go fully in the money. If it doesn't do that, then you end up losing what you paid for it. And so for me, I I really think that

[6:14:35] And so for me, I I really think that just rolling out the short option into the September 4th weekly, I think it's a solid it's a solid option. Let's and we'll see. Ah, it got filled right away. See, there you go. See, that time

[6:14:48] that time we had some good markets. So, look at the boomers, man. Like, every time you count them out, they just go build something. Like, every time you count them out, they just go do something positively for society. Now,

[6:15:01] it is a little bit of a stick in the mud. The fact that they refuse to use the the selfch checkckout at the grocery store, that tends to be a little bit of have caught up with modern times. But still, I'm not hating on the boomers too

[6:15:14] much because we all have to draw the line at some technology when we get uh ahead. Let me see where you guys Oh, well, actually, let me see what Laura's well, actually, let me see what Laura's got for me on some uh some surprises and

[6:15:27] delights. Nice. Okay. Uh, okay. Beautiful. Laura, surprise and delight part one. Okay, excellent. From point B, what is going on there at point B? Point B says, "Can you explain how covered calls work? As you approach to

[6:15:40] you're losing on the short call. Do you pay for the loss on the call at expiration or is it just the stocks are taken away from you and the negative loss on the call is not your responsibility?" Is that correct? Okay,

[6:15:52] this is a great this is a great great great question helpful to do there at point B is whenever you're looking at a covered call and you're trying to understand what's going on never look at the legs

[6:16:05] them individually to understand the mechanics and we'll get to that here in a second but when you're thinking about okay how am I doing on the position you net the long stock and the short call together as one because they are a

[6:16:18] package deal they are one flesh they are man and woman, they are married never to be separated. And so I really think it can be extremely problematic to separate, you know, the long stock from the short call because now all of a

[6:16:31] covered call and like they'll see the stock rallying and the short call is man, what's happening to my position? Like it's losing a bunch of money. It's this, that, the other thing. It's like, no, it's actually not doing that at all.

[6:16:44] as much as you would have made if you didn't have the short call on. But happen. I didn't know what was going to happen. Nobody knew what was going to happen. I mean, Johnny Pool's 47s got out of lockdown on X, but he's the only

[6:16:57] one. Like, he is the only one for us mere mortals, us peasants and believes, together. That's the first thing to keep in mind. But the second thing, so what happens at expiration? So essentially at

[6:17:10] you know, if you take out an in the money cover call to expiration, then you know, you have the long sh you have the long shares and you have the short call at whatever strike. So let's just say you have, you know, long shares and

[6:17:24] you have a short call at 105 and you have long shares that you bought at 100, right? So I sell the call at 105 with a strike of 105. Let's say I sell the call for $2, right? Again, I know I'm kind of hand waving and verbally taking you

[6:17:37] know, if you're only listening to the audio only version of the show today, know, you guys experience every single day where you really can't see anything. It's just my salary voice. Now, we're all on the same playing field. I have a

[6:17:50] stock I buy for 100. I sell a 105 call. I pick up $2 for it. Let's say the stock rallies to 110. What happens at expiration? Essentially, the short call is assigned, right? You are short shares from the

[6:18:05] short call. You're short shares at the at the strike price of 105, but you bought shares at 100. So that's no different than buying the shares for 100. They go to 105 at some point in the future. Don't forget about what the

[6:18:19] irrelevant other than the fact that it's in the money. You buy the shares at 100. You sell them at 105. You make $5. This ends up being the exact same thing except you were assigned on a short call. So, you shorted shares at 105 and

[6:18:32] that were already in your account that you happen to buy for 100, but you still end up with a $5 differential. The difference here being you also get that selling the call in the first place. So, you end up plus $7 in the end. Now,

[6:18:46] have been better off had you not done that, but you didn't know that and I didn't know that. And so, but that's how it works mechanically at expiration if you take a cover call all the way through uh expiration.

[6:18:58] And so, hopefully that helps. Uh, thank you there. Uh, point B, uh, part two from DMC. My man DMZ, what is going on? I appreciate you so very much. Question. I appreciate you so very much. Question. I tried selling an iron condor on SpaceX

[6:19:11] September 18th, 758, 160,165 limit order at a 103 credit. I ended up legging into it separately for a$110. Why is it so much harder to do it as a question. And it's actually there, Daniel. It's exactly what you saw that

[6:19:26] was happening with me with AMD, right? Whenever you do a multi-le strategy, iron condor, butterfly, oh I mean jade lizard, spiked lizard, big lizard, basically anything from the lizard family would work here. Every time that

[6:19:39] you add another leg to the strategy, you have another bid ask spread differential to negotiate. That's going to make it more challenging to get filled on that strategy at all and definitely more challenging to get filled at a fair

[6:19:52] price. And so this is why we keep preaching and preaching and preaching liquidity, liquidity, liquidity. Because again, we like to have the optionality know I do and I think you do too. Whether it be an iron condor or a

[6:20:04] matter. I don't want to be just relegated to just selling puts all the time. Although that may not be that bad actually, but still, I want to have some some uh maneuverability when it comes to doing strategies that have multiple

[6:20:17] legs. Well, if I'm trading something that's even pretty liquid, uh which SpaceX is okay. It's not amazing. It's okay as long as it's pretty liquid, then fill in there. But once you drop off from like primo primo liquidity and now

[6:20:31] something that's maybe like a three star on the tasty liquidity meter, now you've condors, your butterflies, whatever. It's going to be a lot more challenging to get a decent fill on those uh on those trades. And so that's why you

[6:20:45] ended up finding a better fill, an easier fill when you actually legged have to do. Sometimes that's the uh the only way to do it. And then point uh only way to do it. And then point uh part three. Uh oh wait, I Oh. Oh, I

[6:20:59] skipped two and I went to three. Oh my gosh, look at me. Thank you there. Uh guys can't see this, but I can see this what's going on there, Joel? The VIX is pretty lowish, but QQQ has highish IV

[6:21:14] rank. Does one metric beat the other? So, is today a good or bad day to trade calls, today's a great a great day to trade QQQ. And this is a reminder that the VIX is marketwide volatility. Whether you're looking at VIX or even

[6:21:28] VIX futures, I mean, some people like to look at one over the other. I do think relevant in today's market, but I'm kind of beholden to the fact that there's a lot of nostalgia attached to the VIX for me personally because I did my first

[6:21:42] ever research project as a PhD student on the VIX. And I told this story many many times before on the show. So I won't I won't force you guys to struggle was my first ever research project. And

[6:21:54] kind of like a like a habit of mine. And irrelevant, but it still is. It's my baby. And so I can't just throw it out with the bathwater uh that easily, whatever that means. And so if I go to

[6:22:07] measure market volatility. It's going to specifically measure the VIX of S&P options. And so that's S&P 500. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are obviously closely related. There's a ton of overlap. I mean that ven diagram it

[6:22:21] the same circle, right? But if you get up close it's like okay they look a little different. Case in point today EM S&P is up three NASDAQ down 120, right? different instruments and different entities. And so this is why I like

[6:22:36] entities. And so this is why I like looking at market volatility VIX volatility futures whatever just to give me a broad overview. just give me a broad swath of what's going on in the overall market and then I want to get in

[6:22:49] with more of a laser-like focus on that specific index or that specific stock. I'm looking at that IV. I'm looking at that IV rank. That's going to show me uh what opportunities might exist uh for that specific for that specific stock.

[6:23:02] And so, yes, I absolutely think, you know, looking at QQQ is uh is the way to do it. And so, uh thank you there, Laura. Wow, that's really really good. Um, let's go ahead and Man, let me see. Can I can I surprise and light somebody

[6:23:16] in the middle myself? I mean, I think I can. I see uh [laughter] I see BBB Fine saying that he's a boomer. And he uses a selfch checkckout. Well, good job out of you, man. That is a good job out of you. And so, uh,

[6:23:31] awesome, awesome, awesome stuff. I appreciate you, my friend. You know, I know that you know that I do. And so, uh, you're a you're a good man. But beginning. Let me see if I can get to some of these surprising delights that

[6:23:43] Laura sent my way. I see Ryan is in the house talking about some Microsoft u open AAI revenue. All the revenue apparently is coming from you surprised? I mean that makes sense, I guess. Uh Ashin is in the house.

[6:23:56] down is here. What is going on there? Up and down. Sergio, greetings. Doc ready. They just need to know what time to valet the Schultz family. Yes, I will let them know. And the great thing about Bonefish is I mean there's

[6:24:11] not just one of course, but maybe one of the best things is private room, regular room, regular seat, booth, table. It's all wide open. Like you go anytime, any the great thing. I mean, obviously I want to reserve the private room just

[6:24:26] status behind it, but uh but yeah, we'll let him know there, Sergio. So, thank you there, uh my friend. Uh, we're gonna have to find a new Schulz wagon, though, because uh, man, Autumn's been on me about this this van. I mean, she is I'm

[6:24:38] any heat on AMD. Didn't really take any heat on SpaceX. It's whatever. It's to taking an unbelievable amount of heat on this van situation. And so, we've got because I obviously had I drowned the Civic last summer. That guy sunk into

[6:24:53] the ocean. That was one of our side streets in about 18 inches of water. And doing the one car deal for about a year. And I'm actually shocked we've made it the day. I mean I've got a lot of training stuff in the garage and I still

[6:25:06] go to the gym for machines and stuff but um I do a lot of my stuff here which is around and whatever and she's like we got to get this van. We got to get this van. We got to get this van. So you guys help me out. Actually help me out. And

[6:25:19] for no other reason than to simply pump the algo. We're trying to decide between the algo. We're trying to decide between a Honda Odyssey or a Chrysler Pacifica. What do you guys think? I need to know. Do you guys actually have any experience

[6:25:33] with either one, a Chrysler Pacifica or a Honda Odyssey? Now, again, you know, we're in the circle of families and it's like, you know, all of the families are basically doing the same thing and so half of them have Odysseies and half of

[6:25:45] what, like you think like Republicans and Democrats like get after each other, man, the Pacifica Odyssey feud, it gets nasty. Like it gets downright nasty. like they are planting their heels in

[6:25:59] the sand because it is St. Petersburg, Florida. And I'm shocked. I am shocked at the language that goes back and forth, at the insults that go back and believe. I'm like, who's giving me objective information and who is just

[6:26:13] married to the idea of their vehicle more so than uh Oh, look at Ben. Ben's a Pacifica guy. Okay. All right. So, we got a Pacifica. It says it's not close. to take a lot of issue with what you just said there, my friend. A lot of

[6:26:28] me know in the chat. So, I got one vote for Pacifica. Let me know in the chat, uh, one versus the other. I would really, really, uh, like to know that. beginning here. NYC is in the house. What's going on there, N1C? I appreciate

[6:26:43] you there, uh, my friend. Uh, let's see. Let's see. Let's see. Sam's in the Jenu is here. Hello, Dr. Jim. There's XYZ earnings. Do you have any thoughts tonight? Interesting. XYZ. Uh, let me take a look here. You know,

[6:26:57] Uh, let me take a look here. You know, XYZ is always so funny to me because being a finance professor, XYZ, that was our go-to. That was our years and years and years. As a PhD student, I taught classes. Then

[6:27:10] classes. And this was our go-to example, right? Hypothetical example. XYZ stock. Now it's a real company, right? You got your XYZ, you got your ABC. Now XYZ is a

[6:27:22] real company. You can't even use it anymore. ABC, okay, ABC is still up for the uh, you know, up for grabs, but XYZ is taken, man. So now you're left with ABC as your first example. And then obviously the only other one that you

[6:27:34] can use is BEu. So ABC and BEu, these are our two new hypothetical examples be watching the show. I wouldn't imagine you guys would watch a show like this upon this show by misclicking or something in the future, then here you

[6:27:49] go. ABC and BEu. Uh there you have it. But XYZ, this is the uh this is the Jack Dorsey deal, is it not his new little uh venture? Yeah. Let's take a look. Uh Wednesday and a Friday butterfly.

[6:28:05] I mean, it doesn't sound like the worst idea I've ever had. I wouldn't necessarily classify it as the best idea I've ever had. It's, you know, it's know when I think about when I think about block I think about well actually

[6:28:19] I'm thinking about the XYZ status change the status change I mean think about it right for the longest time XYZ was just caged XYZ was just it it was it was imprisoned within the walls of the ivory tower of hypothetical examples in

[6:28:35] finance classrooms across the globe but now as of a few years ago when Jack Dorsey you know took over the company whatever it's now broken free. It's broken free from its chains of academia. It's out there on the rough and tough

[6:28:49] streets of practicum. And so now I'm like, man, I don't know. How can you not be bullish? How can you not be bullish? I mean, this thing is out there. It's fending for itself. It's out there in the wild. And so, I mean, I'm going to

[6:29:01] just I really don't see any way this could possibly not work. I mean, I'm probably 30 to 31% sure we'll get something out of this guy. Uh but man 84

[6:29:13] something out of this guy. Uh but man 84 91 80 oh wait 84 91 98 91 80 oh wait 84 91 98 for a$128 I mean come on man come on man that's couch cushion stuff I mean a$128 you know$128 in actual dollars is $128

[6:29:29] in option dollars and so maybe it's a little bit more than the couch cushion stuff but still in the grand scheme of like what we might typically risk on other positions it's definitely on the lower end of the spectrum and so man I

[6:29:41] don't know there or denu I'm kind of thinking yeah 84 91 98 let's do it again don't have another earnings trade for tomorrow I don't know if there are any kind of loosely on my radar and then organo you reminded me so thank you uh I

[6:29:56] shot tomorrow this is going to be our only chance uh for a um uh for a winner only chance uh for a um uh for a winner but I like it I like it a lot uh$1305

[6:30:16] $139. Here we go again, man. With the mid price jumps, man, these multiple leg strategies. So again, Daniel DMZ, here it is again, right? I mean, it's the same thing. It's exactly what you experienced on Iron Condor. And uh yeah,

[6:30:29] experienced on Iron Condor. And uh yeah, like before I go to uh uh replace and and send this order, you can just see replace and review and send or whatever. can just glance at them and you can see they're not super tight, right? So, if

[6:30:42] getting a little frustrated, you're like, "Hey, what's going on? Why is this glance at the actual markets themselves and it will tell you a lot. Like, it will tell you like what's going on with um you know, those individual markets

[6:30:55] and what you're trying to uh you know, what you're trying to get done. And so, bit it's a little wide, man. That's crazy. And so I thought they were just giving it away$138 or whatever, but now at a$147.

[6:31:09] at$146. Okay, so there you go. So there's your market in XYZ and U. Yeah, so there's a butterfly to the upside. And so there we go. Up and down is in the house. What's going on there? Up and down. What is up? Uh point B is I want

[6:31:23] to actually scroll down really quick. We got any Pacifica Odyssey info? Uh oh, I see a lot of I see a lot of Hondas coming through. Uh, people say Honda's more reliable up in Dallas as a Ford Explorer, man. That's a

[6:31:37] media block. Come on, man. We're trying to have a serious conversation here. information, man. Like, this is, you know, like play time is over. Like, joke writing on this decision. I can't mess this up, right? My man's talking Ford

[6:31:50] Explorer. Somebody's gonna throw a Dodge Neon in the chat. And so, I see a lot of Hondas coming through. Uh, Joel James says, "Don't do it." I gotta do it, man. tied. my hands are tied. Like you kind of

[6:32:03] that, you know, when you miss the mark on a butterfly and hits max loss, exactly how I feel. That's exactly how I feel. And so because of that, there's no way out, man. Like this is Rocky 4. There is no way out. And so,

[6:32:17] unfortunately, the minivan is the only solution. Like, I've looked at all the roads. I've I've mapped them out. I've looked for alternative routes. I've checked contingency plans. All roads lead to minivan. That's it. Trust me,

[6:32:31] I've thought about this a lot. A lot. A lot. They all lead to some type of minivan. Uh point B. Uh let's see. Uh both stocks actually got hit after earnings. So, somebody's

[6:32:44] breakdown. There you go. You got my breakdown for better or worse. Uh Sam morning show. I know he did. But that's an uptick for you guys. That's an uptick exciting things coming on down the shoots with, you know, with Jam and uh I

[6:32:59] I don't know if I should call him Jam or or or or Chem. I think his name is Chem, and all that kind of stuff. And so sometimes I call him Jim and sometimes I call him Chem and he's a great guy and he's super super sharp. Uh BBB fine.

[6:33:13] Let's see. Uh hey Dr. Jim, too bad about SpaceX earnings. That's okay. I rolled SpaceX earnings. That's okay. I rolled your 821 175 160 uh put spread out and your 821 175 160 uh put spread out and down. Okay. to a 918130115

[6:33:25] down. Okay. to a 918130115 uh 2x. Okay. So now you have two spreads on for an extra $600 credit. Now I have $1250 on the $15 wide put spreads. Okay. to be able to finagle something like

[6:33:38] in a credit, but you actually increased your risk on the trade, which is fine as up for there, which I know you do, Billy, but I'm kind of speaking to starting out like how'd that even happen? like how do you make that how do

[6:33:52] Billy doubled up on his risk which I don't have a problem with that what you're signing up for like what am I getting myself into do am I aware that I have now taken on more risk with the strategy and so that is uh that is the

[6:34:05] key uh let's see let's see uh Sam the real rivalry isn't uh VIX HQ in the market it's doc versus Mr. Croissant. Uh yeah, one. I have a feeling I'm going to lose that one in a big big way. Brian Rakitin

[6:34:18] is in the house. What's going on there, Brian? Or Daniel, I followed the doc on principle. Uh well, man, you you actually Oh, that's right. I saw you post that last night there. Uh or Daniel, you were bearish on AMD and

[6:34:31] that's you know, I mean, I thought I was going to bone phase for a while, man. to have a table there, my friend. You are definitely going to have a table there. And so, let's see. Uh NYC is in the house. Uh all-time highs, uh war

[6:34:46] pays. Apparently it does. Uh apparently it does. Uh oh, and there's point B with the cover calls. Uh we got to that one, so that's good. fast to take my money on the butterfly,

[6:34:58] but they won't pay up to let me out. The greedy market makers. Maybe Dr. Wood was guys this story before, too, but we've got an extra 30 seconds. when I was in University of Memphis starting my doctoral program super overwhelmed super

[6:35:13] what's happening like I can't do any of this stuff the math is too hard like the equations are too crazy like I can't do any of it somehow I muddled through uh escaping for four and a half years but

[6:35:26] uh but in my first class Dr. Wood said spread differentials and we were going through like market maker models and all whatever and I was like this is insane and he was like and he actually said he

[6:35:39] forgot. I'm glad I remembered it because now I mean I've been working with market makers now for the last 10 years of my career. He said that market makers have right I better write that down. That could be on the exam blah blah blah

[6:35:52] you know two months later and there it was fill in the blank. Market makers was like, I got it because I wrote it down. And so I reme I remember that. the market makers and, you know, Tom, Tony, Liz, Jan, whatever, right? It's

[6:36:05] been amazing. And it's just a very very very different perspective. Very different perspective. But now it's like we're seeing these mid-pric jumps. It's like I don't know, man. Maybe they're maybe they're not stealing, but maybe

[6:36:18] they're just borrowing and not giving back. Like maybe that [laughter] like maybe we shouldn't call it stealing like outright theft, but maybe it's a loan where only one party knows about said loan. Like may maybe that's what we

[6:36:33] should start talk calling this. Uh that's oh man that's really really I'm right there with you. I'm right there with you there my friend. I'm Jamal's bullish uh hood trade. All the right specs. Thanks Jamal. There you go.

[6:36:48] Jamal is a good one to follow. No fade. You need to be following. Uh 10:30 is in back up by tomorrow? I mean, come back up. I mean, it's it's already up, right? I mean I mean, if you're talking about the little bit of the drop um that we I

[6:37:05] mean, has this is this even really a drop? play here, I would not be playing for that. I'd be playing for

[6:37:20] that guy right there. That's what I'd be playing for. I'm not playing for the, you know, the blood that to the upside. We're playing for the bloop to the downside right down in there. And so that puts you somewhere around 7500,

[6:37:33] maybe like 7510 to make it look like, you know, we really tried. And so I to play it to the downside here, which again, I got it. It's never going back understand. I mean, I'm on the internet, too. But uh but yeah, that's how I would

[6:37:47] play. Ryan LP is here. What is up there, my friend? Uh Joel James is here. What that we made it back to. Wow, we only have a couple minutes left. Can I make man. Laura kind of keeps me she keeps me on my toes. Uh N1C is here. Butterflies

[6:38:02] spread separately. Uh but you got to calculate the prices as you fill. That's correct. Right. You buy one, sell the other. Uh so you can watch the spread. That's also correct. Uh Ryan LP. Uh thank you there, my friend. The other

[6:38:14] Ryan Ryan Zen. I got Ryan LP. They got Ryan Zen, which are both like, you know, difficult to remember, but uh wow, nice trade, doc. Thank you there, my friend. I appreciate you. Uh BBB, fine. Uh AMD, um

[6:38:27] uh let's see. Uh I did a $20 wide butterfly in for 265 out for 1,500. Thanks, Dr. Jim. Going to Bonefish Happy Hour. Bonefish happy hour. That's where draft, man. Like, don't let the haters take away your fun. Don't let the haters

[6:38:42] steal your joy. Like, you can do it. You can 100% do it. And so, uh, Point B, uh, afternoon to Laura. She's doing a fantastic job back there. Uh, let's see. DMZ is here. Ranch is here. SPX is a total dog. Is a total dog. Really?

[6:38:57] Down 30 basis points off of alltime highs, man. Man, guys, guys, guys. We got to give it a little breathing room, right? Give the Bloops a chance to breathe. Uh, because uh, yeah. Wow. That's really funny. Uh,

[6:39:11] let's see. Ranch is here. Point B. Griffin Jones is in the house. What is you, my friend. I'm like out of time though, but I see Adam Armfield is here. though, but I see Adam Armfield is here. Who else is here? I see Balgo is here,

[6:39:23] man. I appreciate you. Flipper is here, man. Look at you. Luminous Bit is here. PE Leonard is here, man. I appreciate you guys so very much, man. Jim Dandy Field is here. I media is here. I appreciate you guys,

[6:39:36] to Tim Knight, but thank you guys so very much. If you guys want to shoot me please do so. I am J [email protected] or we can connect on Twitter. I'm J Schultz F3. I would love to hear from

[6:39:48] tuned. We do have Tim Knight coming up next with trading the charts. In the them heavy, and stay generous. We'll see you guys tomorrow.

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[6:41:54] Wednesday to you. Um, we finally have a little red on our screen. First time in a week. Uh you'll surely recall that Wednesday at the close was sort of the Wednesday at the close was sort of the the uh Nadier uh or Nater I'm not sure

[6:42:07] it's pronounced NADI the bottom uh of the selloff we had seen and since then has been a merciless uh push higher until today um with tech stocks at least on an intraday basis there have been lifetime highs all over

[6:42:21] there have been lifetime highs all over the place but as of right now um we've got generally speaking a strong open and a weakish looking close. Um, let's just dive into the charts. Those do a better job than I can describing what's going

[6:42:35] on. So, here we have the spider and it's pretty simple to describe what's going on. We were rangebound for all of May, all of June, all of July. And finally, yesterday we escaped that range for the first time. And as you might guess, it

[6:42:49] was an explosive move higher. Quadruple digits on the INDO, quadruple digits on the NASDAQ composite. Today, as you can see with the red bar, we are getting some selling. We are up barely right now. 07%. Um, so lifetime high on an

[6:43:07] intraday basis. And like I said this morning, we could fall. We could fall a lot and still be completely bullishly configured. The only wart that's going to possibly appear on this bullish scenario would be if we reenter that

[6:43:20] rectangle. If we have a failed bullish breakout. Um I I've not stayed completely on top of the Iran news, but my sense is that um the some kind of

[6:43:32] my sense is that um the some kind of deal is effectively done. Um which I won't go into in terms of my reaction to the nature of the deal, but that it would be really good to have it

[6:43:44] with a memorandum of understanding and that didn't that that was what lasted that didn't that that was what lasted what 2 3 weeks and became irrelevant. what 2 3 weeks and became irrelevant. So, um I'd love it to be done forever,

[6:43:57] but uh you would be you'd be completely forgiven by doubting that, but it really mucks things up with respect to trading because we always have to worry about the the next surprise. Um but at the moment it seems like we are approaching

[6:44:14] last for some indetermined amount of time and we can focus on things besides time and we can focus on things besides Iran and the straight of Hormuz. Um the diamonds have had five green bars in a row. They still have a net gain for the

[6:44:30] day and it seems almost certain that that'll retain that. Um we've got um we've pushed higher than this broken trend line, but this is not a safe position [clears throat] to be in. It could easily easily retrace a portion uh

[6:44:45] could easily easily retrace a portion uh of this pop. Um little bit of a shooting star pattern there. Um things are very stretched to the upside. Uh for myself, um I bottomed out uh commitment wise at 14% yesterday and worked that up to 50%

[6:45:02] at the close yesterday. And as of now, I'm back up to around um like 80, no 75. So still cautious, but getting back in there step by step. Uh

[6:45:16] the small caps IWM also had an intraday lifetime high, but they have a net loss right now. So, they've already given back some of that big blast higher back some of that big blast higher yesterday. Uh, and overseas emerging

[6:45:30] markets, um, that pop has been strong. We've sealed up this price gap. Kind of a mess of a chart here. Not not particularly tradable to my eyes. Uh, although one particular country, as you know, that I'm a little obsessed with is

[6:45:45] know, that I'm a little obsessed with is China. So, my FXI uh, puts March 2027, $37 puts. The FXI itself is down a little more than half a percent. Nice. First red bar in like 10 days. So, I appreciate that. Um, and I'm looking for

[6:45:59] a much more substantial drop between now and way out in March, which will feel like about 20 years or so, I suspect, with what's going to happen between now and then. So, plenty of time. Now, let's

[6:46:14] take a moment to talk about SpaceX because that was a big deal uh last night and there are some interesting things going on. So, on Monday we had a things going on. So, on Monday we had a nice fat green bar and yesterday we had

[6:46:29] a nice fat green bar and they came out with a report revenues a billion dollars higher than expected um net loss much smaller than expected. Good news and the market reacted accordingly. it immediately bid it up even higher and it

[6:46:44] immediately bid it up even higher and it got to around 131 or so. And you know, just for context, the stock peaked at 230 the stock peaked at 230 uh approximately uh 3 days after its um

[6:46:58] the third day of its offering. So, we're still massively below um that peak, but still massively below um that peak, but it was healing Monday, Tuesday. That first reaction to the earnings report did not last.

[6:47:12] report did not last. And by the time we open today, uh all of yesterday's gains were gone and we are now trading well within Monday's uh bar [clears throat] and not far away from lifetime lows. So,

[6:47:26] um the only good news you can kind of say for the moment is well, and this this is thin grl um is well, at least it's not at new lifetime lows. That that's the only good thing you can say. Um I would add though that the selling

[6:47:43] Um I would add though that the selling hasn't even started because uh tomorrow hasn't even started because uh tomorrow I believe um the first block of u of shares and I think I read it was like a billion shares is a lot uh 20% of

[6:47:57] the entire company's capitalization shares um come free to trade and it remains to be seen um what the result will be because it comes down to this. will be because it comes down to this. How will all those folks, insiders,

[6:48:12] early investors, etc., how will those who have been trapped in uh foreclosed from selling behave [clears throat] after they're allowed to sell? And the two extremes are obviously, oh my god, thank god I'm

[6:48:25] turning this into cash now or not at these prices. I'm waiting and this is a not going to sell this cheaply. And of course they'll be all measure within that continuum of decisions. But where's the bulk of people do? What will they

[6:48:40] the bulk of people do? What will they do? Um we'll know soon. Um because if we see volume start to really pick up and it just kind of remelt slower then you will see those double digits before the week is out. Um

[6:48:54] don't want that bare though I may be. This is the one stock I want to do well. This is the one stock I want to do well. So, I'm not I'm not um cheerleading the demise of this thing, but it don't be surprised if we're in the double digits

[6:49:07] for this weekend. Um and we could be shocked. You know what? That 20% that gets unlocked, the people may just cross their arms and be like, "Uh uh uh-uh, I'm holding on to something for a decade." And we could rally because the

[6:49:21] supposition that there's going to be a lot of selling is already built into the price. the fear of that is already built into the price. You could see a big rally paradoxically because of the unlock. So

[6:49:36] interesting to watch. But that's the reaction so far. Um great earnings and just a a belch uh in terms of the ultimate reaction. Uh the other item that came out yesterday was AMD and they fell immediately. AMD is down almost $32

[6:49:52] over 6%. As I mentioned this morning, the topping pattern is still pretty as a picture, but is not complete. It needs to get below the low we saw last Wednesday to complete that pattern. And if it does, look out below. As it is

[6:50:05] now, it's just rangebound, just banging around the same range it's been since, you know, people were cleaning up after Easter Sunday. So, um, there we have it. Easter Sunday. So, um, there we have it. Um, on that same topic, South Korea,

[6:50:19] EWY, um, the topping pattern here is still kind of in place. It's not beautiful, but it's not completely trashed like a lot of others have been. Uh, we're down just a touch on this, but that topping pattern is still intact.

[6:50:34] Uh, SMH, weirdly, is actually up a little today. Even with AMD being down, and even with South Creek being down a little bit, SMH is up about a third of a percent, mostly because of Nvidia. SpaceX made a big stink about their

[6:50:46] Nvidia relationship. So that's really gooseed the stock higher. Nvidia's far and away the biggest semiconductor outfit. So naturally that's bleeding over to SMH. But I've drawn these lines here and

[6:51:00] ask your local first grade student what they see. It's a descending channel. You know, it's just it's just working its way lower. So don't let this week's worth of rally seduce you into thinking that suddenly it's a brand new bull

[6:51:13] market. semiconductors. This is it's a bounce. If it's the last bounce and it's up from here, who knows? But this is a descending channel and will continue to be so until it's not. Uh precious metals are getting a much needed relief rally.

[6:51:26] are getting a much needed relief rally. It they are big. Uh GLD up over 4%. Big big rally there. Take note of that right triangle. Um this is you know, yay

[6:51:38] video yesterday, which they'll release today or tomorrow about um my thesis that I've talked about for the past year or so that over the long haul, I'm a

[6:51:51] huge precious metals fan and I think you're going to knock the socks off of equities. However, for the short term, I think this is a transitory rally and we will bonk our heads against the bottom of the

[6:52:04] right triangle after this rally is done. But it was like, okay, I don't care about the next 10 years. Okay, fine. You know, buy it now if you want. Ultimately, I think it'll be a lot higher. It's just not a fantastic price.

[6:52:17] higher. It's just not a fantastic price. Uh, silver SLV up just about the same percentage- wise, which is unusual. It's usually kind of a outsized move, but same deal, same right triangle, and same ceiling that I think it's going to conck

[6:52:29] its head against. Uh, naturally, miners GDX are enjoying this. They're up uh good and strong 7 and a half% pop with the GDX. Um XME

[6:52:41] is also up the more modestly a bit more than 4% and as I mentioned this morning to the fellows um is not a terrible short if you're looking to short metals. Uh it's certainly much I wouldn't touch GDX but XME with a stop just above that

[6:52:54] GDX but XME with a stop just above that gap. It's not not a bad trade. um crude oil with this chitter chatter about a deal has uh been beaten down strong over the past uh eight or nine trading sessions. We're the lowest we've

[6:53:08] been since uh this pop on July 30, which I guess the maybe the unravel during I guess the maybe the unravel during that time. Um but uh the weakness of oil certainly indicates to me that maybe this deal is going to going to stick. Um

[6:53:24] energy itself by way of XLE energy stocks uh have a bearish engulfing stocks uh have a bearish engulfing pattern here 1 and 3/4% dropped today uh repelled from this descending trend line and so this those could get knocked

[6:53:36] down. I would not base any oil trades based upon speculation about geopolitical events though. Um I still find the whole energy sector not worth bothering with so I'm not going near it. Uh, as I said, uh, it's a welcome bit of

[6:53:51] red on the screen today and sharp contrast the past four days. A couple of shorts I got that are behaving themselves nicely. Um, ALAB, um, Astra [clears throat] Labs, this is down almost 10%. U, uh, having peaked

[6:54:05] yesterday. Uh, Pens, which I think had earnings last night. Pinterest. Um, this Look at this. Look at that price gap. There's the gap. Substantial gap. And we get nice and close. Look at that. I think that's to the penny, right on the

[6:54:20] money. So, that was the peak yesterday and then um we took a tumble today on that, not quite 9%. Uh also continued to hold my um January

[6:54:32] Uh also continued to hold my um January uh Meta puts and uh today we opened quite strong, but we did sell off. We're barely up right now and um it's all fine unless we exceed this price gap. But I got into those um I think

[6:54:47] bit of a little bit of profit so far on those. So so far so good. Tonight uh is storage night, digital storage night. There's a couple of uh their earnings. They have been exceptionally um strong stocks and um

[6:55:05] SNDK. And this one has a pretty decent topping pattern defined by everything above that horizontal line. Um, this stock just set

[6:55:17] the world on fire from April of last year to April of this year. Went up I think thousands of percent. But as it is now, we've um had a nice top hammer out and this line will be worth watching. Uh the other one is WDC Western Digital,

[6:55:33] which is not nearly as clean a pattern. And right now it's down 2.7% but kind of the same idea, just a sensationally strong stock uh from April 2025 to um

[6:55:45] this spring and it's been kind of topping out ever since then. But as as you can see, much sloppier pattern with that. So, just to wrap up with a couple of the big equity futures here, ES, which not surprisingly looks a lot like

[6:55:58] the spider. We've got a shooting start up here. We've had an intraday high. And like I say, we could we could have a big down day. And unless it pierces into that rectangle, it does not change the bullish um setup um of this market. Um

[6:56:18] failed bullish breakout. So, it hasn't happened yet. We're still skyhigh and there's plenty of room for relaxation there. And the ENQ has been tremendously strong. It has cut through this whole range of overhead supply with weirdly

[6:56:36] little effort basically yesterday. Uh we do have a bit moment. It is down a little about a third of a percent uh having peaked at this line. There's a lot less overhead supply here than there was down here.

[6:56:51] So, it would not take much to conquer this, but for the moment at least, it seems to be a little out of breath. So, I'll leave you with that. Bottom of the hour exactly, and I will see you here tomorrow. Good luck to you. Bye-bye.

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[6:59:24] charm. Listen up, y'all. Get out the damn song. It's the last call. >> Hey, the last call. The last call. >> We are back. Final 30 minutes of the trading day here. You're watching Tasty Live. This is Last Call. I'm Chris Veio.

[6:59:37] He's Tom Preston. TP TP. Nothing has changed in this market since Liz and I did confirm and send this morning. We are trading at 7770 or so as it's felt like for the past four hours now.

[6:59:50] four hours now. >> It's dead. It's um so I mean look I'm I put on um an hour ago I put on a broken wing butterfly unbalanced butterfly in wing butterfly unbalanced butterfly in the S&P. My short strike is at 7730.

[7:00:05] So, if I can get a $9 selloff in the next 27 minutes, I would greatly appreciate it. If people can get in there and start jumping on top of the there and start jumping on top of the S&P to drive it down nine bucks or

[7:00:19] appreciate it. >> It's the least they It's the least they >> They They owe it to you, TP. No doubt about it. [laughter]

[7:00:33] caught this too, but when stocks were up near their highs, the VIX was pumping started pulling back, the VIX started pulling back in. Is this kind of clear

[7:00:45] evidence that the market maybe yesterday was being driven by a lot of call buying in the option space? >> Yeah, that's that's basically it. And yesterday and I want just want to clarify something is that the VIX looks

[7:00:59] clarify something is that the VIX looks at prices not trades. So it's even though there's a lot of buying for example um it's the markets it's the bid ask prices that the market that the market makers put out that determines

[7:01:14] the value of the VIX. So even if there wasn't actual call buying even though there was even if there wasn't actual call buying or actual put buying the

[7:01:26] increased prices as the market makers expect demand increases the VIX and that's what's it it just seems so beyond that though Chris and I think this leads exactly into your point it seems like there are a lot of retail investors who

[7:01:41] there are a lot of retail investors who or traders who want to they they are afraid of missing out on what what's a huge rally. So, they're buying out of the money calls. They're, you know, hey, they're at least they're using options,

[7:01:56] but this, I think, is a retail driven rally. lot of the names at the top of the leaderboard today happen to be some of those semiconductor stocks. AMD is obviously in here after its pullback

[7:02:10] following its earnings report that we had uh, yesterday. ATP, we're back to 483 or so. So, ultimately a 6.7% decline. Definitely off the lows, but the the stock of the day then would be SanDisk, which is off six per no uh

[7:02:25] sorry, 3% here. Um, we have earnings here after hours right now. 58.8 IVR, but still a toasty 208% raw volatility on the two DTE here. This is a big stock

[7:02:37] though. This isn't like your typical $100 stock right [laughter] now. >> how do you approach this? >> I've I'm actually up in SanDisk through

[7:02:49] just by by trading in not a not a huge amount. Is SanDisk is not one of my big winners for the for this year so far. Um I am very very cautious with it. I'm I'm not trading anything in SanDisk right tonight around earnings. That stock can

[7:03:05] tonight around earnings. That stock can move 500 bucks. You know, it's maybe not 500, but it can move a few hundred. And if you look at the expected move for the 2-day option, it takes it all the way down. Oh jeez, I got to add some strikes

[7:03:20] to my platform here. >> Takes it down to 1225. It looks like >> I Chris, hang on. I have to add more strike prices so I can see the puts. Um,

[7:03:32] strike prices so I can see the puts. Um, yeah, 1225. So if I just sold that put spread, for example, take a 90 credit. M. Okay. Go all the way to the call side

[7:03:44] um which is around$,550 and bought the 1555s. and bought the 1555s. Yeah. Okay. Um fivepoint spread uh five point um in between long and short strikes. I'd collect about well it used

[7:03:59] to be a$19 dollar 80 credit. I mean I guess I could do that. Um, but I I don't think it would have have any trouble moving 200 bucks overnight.

[7:04:11] Um, I'm not going to trade SanDisk tonight. Maybe tomorrow when the number after the number comes out. Um, but couple of things. One of one of Here's ruminate on that for a quick second here.

[7:04:25] >> TV. We've seen this happen so many times in the past two weeks where one of these AI infrastructure names moves well beyond the expected move. >> right. >> So I mean,

[7:04:38] >> Microsoft, Meta, all of >> them. Palunteer right earlier this week. >> So I I would not discount the possibility uh you Caterpillar gate what 10 11% higher. It didn't settle that high for the day,

[7:04:52] >> but it still came out of the gate 10 11% higher. So seeing this move two beyond either of its expected moves to me seems like the easy thing to bet right now. >> Yeah. Well, I mean if Yeah. I mean if you wanted to flip that around

[7:05:07] and turn that sell into a buy where you're just buying far out of the money verticals um betting on a huge move either way you'd spend about 190 bucks $200 to do that. I don't love that trade. I don't.

[7:05:22] But that's that's something you could certainly do. Um, and yeah, you will probably lose money on that trade. But if Sandis surprises everybody and like you said, Chris has it delivers an outlier move beyond the expected move.

[7:05:38] >> Yeah, that could be a good trade. >> TP, what have you been trading today in this market where it's been really flat and the volumes today? 1.2 is not and the volumes today? 1.2 is not nothing, but it's still soft. I I closed

[7:05:51] my SMR short put. I was short the eight and a half put with a couple of days expiration. SMR I think they come out tonight with tonight with >> I took that off for a 50 cent profit. Um

[7:06:05] >> I took that off for a 50 cent profit. Um I sold a put in love. I sold the uh 20 that has earnings coming out in August. But I sold it in the um August expiration with 23 days. is I sold the 45 put for 60. I figured if um I've been

[7:06:23] wrong on oil for so long, Chris, betting that it's going to bounce. No, it doesn't. It goes right through my short puts. It's it it kills me. So, Love is Love's options are, you know, pretty liquid. Maybe the most liquid, and I

[7:06:40] hesitate to say most, but one of the more liquid ones of the airline stocks. even Jets, the ETF that tracks uh airline stocks, the the the options aren't great. So, I just went to Love. I've traded Love a lot. Um so, what else

[7:06:55] I've traded Love a lot. Um so, what else did I do? I closed um did I do? I closed um I sold the I sold an iron condor in Oxy >> They have earnings today, too. >> So, today Yeah. So, I sold an iron

[7:07:08] >> So, today Yeah. So, I sold an iron condor in there. Sold the 49 51 5860 with 9 days. Sorry. >> Yeah, that's okay. You just extend it

[7:07:22] >> Yeah, that's okay. You just extend it out there. Um the out there. Um the Where's my oxy? Yeah, the 4951 puts >> and the 5860 calls. That's exactly right. I did that for 53 cents. just

[7:07:37] thought, eh, you know, we'll see how it goes. I mean, it's um it's an oil company, so it has exposure to the price of oil and equities, so you I'm just betting that's going to be rangebound for the next few days. Um,

[7:07:53] sold a put spread in Nvidia mainly as a mainly as a as a contrarian bet on space. No, actually, it's not contrarian bet. It's just a bet on SpaceX. SpaceX would got

[7:08:08] crushed today. Um, I just cannot make a buck in SpaceX, but they did come out and say they would buy uh Nvidia chips to run its stuff, SpaceX's stuff.

[7:08:21] >> Um, so I just sold a put spread to Nvidia. Sold um the seven days the Nvidia. Sold um the seven days the August um expiring on August 12th next August um expiring on August 12th next week. Um uh sold the um 215 217 half put

[7:08:36] spread for 85. Um and I did a trade in Uber. Sold sold an iron condor in Uber. Uber got crushed today. Uber reported this morning I

[7:08:49] >> Mhm. >> Um got crushed and I just think eh maybe I'll just kind of noodle around for the next couple of days. Um I told you about next couple of days. Um I told you about Disney. I sold Disney. I sold a two-day

[7:09:02] irrigant condor. Um >> trying to find some life here. Trying to find some life. >> Yeah, it's um rallied up. Apparently, it had good numbers last night or this morning and then has been coming back a

[7:09:17] little bit. I sold the with two days again the 9800 put spread. So, I bought again the 9800 put spread. So, I bought the 98 puts, sold the 100 puts. the 98 puts, sold the 100 puts. >> Mhm. sold the 104 calls, bought the 106

[7:09:31] calls. Um, do I know anything about Disney? Nope. But it is it's just a Disney? Nope. But it is it's just a trade. I took it 55 cents uh of credit for that. A little less than I'd like to get for that, Chris. But, you know, hey,

[7:09:45] earnings are out. Um, volatility came back came in a little bit and uh I'll I'll take I'll take a 55cent credit just as a bet that Disney isn't going to go go anywhere fast. Um, and I took some trades off. Uh, bought back a put spread

[7:10:02] in Micron. Uh, rolled up some short put spreads in gold because I had an iron condor GLD. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> And got was getting smacked on my on my

[7:10:15] calls. Those are in the money now. So, I've been rolling up the put side. >> Gold here is turning out with a fantastic day. Uh 4313 right now. Open outcry crows is 4305, but that's still marked for 3.88% higher here.

[7:10:29] >> Right now, uh really resilient market TP and uh I'm I've been sitting long for a two or three >> in a long position just waiting this all the macro variables that usually weigh on it aren't anymore? [laughter]

[7:10:46] So, right, oil keeps going up and yields keep going up and gold is just hanging going to break down or break out higher. And I'm a little bit of a gold bug over the past year plus. So, >> why not? And um you know, I just did an

[7:11:01] iron condor, so it's I'm just defending that. Yeah. >> But yeah, what's surprising is and I know you talked to um the woman at uh what was it about did did the segment at noon or 12:30 talking

[7:11:16] Lead Strategies >> talking about the the difference between gold and Bitcoin for example bit gold is rallying Bitcoin really hasn't done

[7:11:28] rallying Bitcoin really hasn't done anything today um and the only thing I did in Bitcoin was let me go to my prediction markets. Oops. Sorry, sorry, sorry.

[7:11:43] Sorry, sorry, sorry. Bitcoin. Yeah. So, I made a whopping total of $58 um trading trading prediction markets in in in uh Bitcoin. So, just Bitcoin above

[7:11:58] 64599 and above 641.99. That's it. Yeah. No, I don't have anything going on in crypto myself right now, but it's certainly, you know, Bitcoin up, you

[7:12:10] little bit of a bounce in some of these anti-doll sort of things are down. The dollar's not having a great day. Uh, basically off of against everything except for the euro right now. With respect to what's happening in gold and

[7:12:22] silver TP, I mean, I I see lots of nice little things. I see lots of former swing highs in the downtrend being broken to the upside here along the way. So, the market's chewing through supply. Uh you see the same thing in silver.

[7:12:34] You're seeing something similar in copper, which copper here, by the way, things. It's right back to its all-time highs. Yeah. >> In this market, uh not a lot of people like to trade copper or futures, so to

[7:12:46] speak, because HG is a big product and it's not the most liquid thing in the at FCXTP. You brought up FCX the last time that we spoke about copper here and top side of its recent trading range. So the metals and everything metals related

[7:12:59] isn't working. But you mentioned Oxy earlier. Oxy's an oil EMP company, been a clear difference between what's been making money and what's not making money. And quite frankly, a lot of these EMP companies, they haven't been able to

[7:13:13] product, get it out of the ground, and they view geopolitical events as temporary issues, not permanent reshapings. So, they don't really make more wells as a result of the Iran war. They're just, you know, biting their

[7:13:26] time while they can do it. Um, Oxy looks a lot like CL, which looks a lot like, right? >> Or we can go to XLE, broadly speaking here. It does not look like one of the refiners that would be in crack, like a

[7:13:41] PSX >> or an MPC. So, when I look at Oxy, uh, I get filled. It's going to be something small 5556 short call spread. Right now, it's only I have it sitting for 30 cents a credit. Maybe we get filled for 27.

[7:13:56] Okay, so we're in. We'll remove the we'll remove the other one here. Cancel that order. Um, but either way, TP, like if the way that this market has traded, >> we haven't seen much substantial upside benefit in some of these EMP names. So,

[7:14:09] of guy, but >> it fits. But and the other point is too >> it fits. But and the other point is too Chris is like you said um at the start of this talking about you know SanDisk that yes we've seen some

[7:14:23] know SanDisk that yes we've seen some huge moves um out you know these outlier moves because of earnings but also just contrarian moves. I don't know what number matters anymore. You could give me the report now for any one of these

[7:14:38] stocks coming out tonight and I couldn't tell you whether it's g the stock's going to go up or down. I couldn't do that. You know, it's is is it uh is it their actual earnings, their revenues, their projections for growth, blah blah

[7:14:52] blah, the spending that they're doing on AI, yada yada yada. I have no idea. So, even if Oxy comes out with awesome numbers or horrible numbers, I'm just days. >> TP, uh, there there's some things that

[7:15:07] know, kind of fit the criteria for maybe we're in a steady uptrend and, uh, I earlier, so I took it off, but it's continuing to move up. It fell into that little one month moving average, 50day moving average zone, which played before

[7:15:22] here in middle of July and got a bounce and pulled back in, but we still haven't cleared out those lows. So, I'm looking around like 250 here, 240. There's only kind of upsetting at the 44 days to expiration. If you go in at 37, you're

[7:15:38] not seeing a lot of volume or open interest. You have to go to 16 days and now I'm not able to trade necessarily around the level that I want to trade at. >> So, yeah, I'm already short and I put

[7:15:51] this on two weeks ago. I short in J&J. I'm short the 247 half 250 put spread. So I bought the 247 half sold the 250 within the six. They now have 16 days.

[7:16:04] for the same exact strikes. 250. >> Yeah. So what did you what did you get >> Uh I pulled in I think >> 58. Okay. Yeah, that's fine. It's a

[7:16:16] break that rule all the time myself. And so I collected 85 cents mainly because it was 2 weeks ago. So that's and that's a great illustration, Chris, that 2 weeks of premium um that was a roughly

[7:16:31] what a 30-day option, 31day option when I put it on. >> Um it lo went from 85 down to 58. So about 27 cents. >> That's decay in action. >> You know, UNH is another one of these

[7:16:46] today. In fact, it's just back above its one week, but it's still below its one month and it's bouncing from its 50. So, what are we looking at here at 16 days? Uh, we can play underneath today's low. Do we want to call today's low? Uh, 397

[7:16:59] Do we want to call today's low? Uh, 397 and 80. So, 397 and a half, 395. Getting 59 cents of credit there. Not a ton, but something to dabble with. The criteria's something to dabble with. The criteria's metric, Chris, the 97, 95, 97. 95 97

[7:17:15] beak. >> I'm gonna pull that up to

[7:17:30] with 16 days. I'm going to kettle. I'm going to get that 88 cent credit. I Watch me get filled. >> We shall see. Uh yeah, TP. I mean,

[7:17:42] out here, but this list that I had a few weeks back that was like, oh, there are pullbacks, but in still broader uptrends. This list today, right now, just to show how we're no longer in pullback mode. We're in just momentum

[7:17:57] mode right now. Eli, Lily, UNH, Abby, Apple, and Chevron, five companies. Oh, sorry. Actually, as of just a moment ago, Novartis just popped onto the something we could take a look at, too. Nois looks like it's trying to round out

[7:18:13] to me. Uh, I was in this earlier, got bumped out. I like a longer term view on this, but the 140 145, it's a little light right now at 97 cents. So, I'm but this is also on my this has been on and off my radar for the past few weeks,

[7:18:27] your short put spreads TP, this kind of action where it's not really jumping lower, that can work. >> Yeah, that's ideal. if they suck volatility out in time passes, that works. Um, so Chris, I want to take a

[7:18:42] look at NDX versus the S&Ps. So, the NASDAQ 100. NASDAQ 100. >> I did a quick uh a quick test today. This was um what time was it now? 251. About half an hour ago. Of the of the of

[7:18:57] the 100 stocks in the NASDAQ 100, only 37 37 of them were up. H >> remember yesterday about 68% 68 of them >> remember yesterday about 68% 68 of them were up. So today 37 are up. Compare

[7:19:12] were up. So today 37 are up. Compare that to the S&P 500 where 234 that to the S&P 500 where 234 stocks are up. So not quite half but a lot closer than the NASDAQ. And that's just showing that the NASDAQ is down 48%

[7:19:28] just showing that the NASDAQ is down 48% down 142 bucks. And the S&PS down 142 bucks. And the S&PS S&Ps, where are you? SPX S&Ps are up a$183 um or$153

[7:19:42] um up 0.02. Basically unchanged. Basically unchanged. >> Yeah, you know, the breadth has been holding up. It's been a lot of money would point to something like the Russell for example which you know it

[7:19:55] another time in recent months pulled back to its 50 finds a bounce cycles [clears throat] uh when the small caps are holding up TP even on a day like today where you're getting kind of chop and grind and just

[7:20:07] window dressing if you will >> there's no s there's no substantial these markets even though we have come off the highs. >> No I don't see it. Um, and just kind of looking at the at the at the at the heat

[7:20:21] maps right now in the S&P 500, the big the big name in the S&Ps is Nvidia. That is the biggest greenest blob on the heat map. Um, a lot of just, you know,

[7:20:35] Google's a big red one, AMD is a big red one. Um, a lot of all this money today? >> Yeah, because what? because a couple AI AI people quit or something like that. Is that what it was?

[7:20:48] >> Yeah, one guy. All right. See, I don't buy that. It's okay. Whatever. The way I think it works, Chris, and there are lots of lots of examples, lots of counter examples of this, but I think what it is, stock drops, just it just

[7:21:03] drops and they go scrambling around looking for a reason that would be bearish on the stock. Oh jeez, this top AI guy quit. The stock's down. Oh, give me a break. Like they're on a thousand people at Google that probably can't do

[7:21:17] people at Google that probably can't do the same job. Okay, it's [snorts] it's I I don't buy that. Did I get a trade off and I have so many trades today. Do I have a position in Google? I do. So, I sold with two days and it's looking

[7:21:32] ugly. I'll tell you right now, it is looking ugly. I sold the 357 half 360 put spread um with two days to go. I'm I just the

[7:21:45] um with two days to go. I'm I just the options the strikes I bought the 357 half >> and sold the 360 puts. >> Okay, >> the 60 that's call. So puts right there.

[7:21:59] Right there. Right there. You're getting a$13. I sold mine for 85. So you can get it way better now. If you drag that down to the 5557, drag it down some strikes, it probably would get it gets you the same price. So

[7:22:14] I sold that put spread, then the market dropped. [laughter] >> hey, that happens sometime. I'm going to take a little bit of a longer view here, TP, because this is, you know, I'm I'm

[7:22:27] with you. I find it a little funny that this is how the market's responding. 340 seems like a nice number for me to operate around. So 340 335 325 actually uh $25 on a credit here. But you know it's Google after all and I have faith

[7:22:45] there despite their Google search machine being an utter mess right now. >> Well for 5 cents I can put on a Super Bowl here TP. >> Yeah. I mean for five five cent debit. Sure. Yeah. Why not? Um I mean I like I

[7:23:02] 5centent debit, that's not bad. The point is if you're if you're generally bullish on the US economy, these big stocks like Google or Nvidia or even AMD or Apple or Amazon or any

[7:23:18] one of these stocks, they're going to go up over time. And even if you know the 44day trade doesn't work out for Chris, I'm speaking for Chris, roll it out to another roll it out to a further expiration. Just keep at it. Um, and

[7:23:33] yeah, you know, it doesn't mean that you're going to make money on the trade. But it's just if you have a a general bullishness uh for these types of names, yeah, these are the trades to do. Sell put spreads,

[7:23:46] do super bulls, whatever. um you do defined risk trades and keep at it. >> Um all of that [clears throat] is good advice. However, in the MAGS ETF at 16

[7:23:58] days, I can buy the 71 call right now for just 60. for just 60. >> Yeah, I mean the problem >> Yeah, that's fine. I mean, yeah, the closing and the point is you're paying

[7:24:11] closing and the point is you're paying $3 a I mean to each his own, right? But it's more than >> I like I like I like to keep time on my side. I like positive theta my portfolio. Can I see my theta? Uh

[7:24:26] somewhere on there. My eyes aren't any good anymore. Um but you know that's good anymore. Um but you know that's that's where my P&L comes from. Uh not being right on stocks. >> TP, we have just over uh two minutes

[7:24:40] left to go in the trading day here. Uh best performing sector ETF on my monitor today is going to be GDX, which if you had that lotto ticket punched 7.5% higher right now. GDXJ likewise is up in the same territory about uh 7.5%

[7:24:55] higher as well. >> I mean line drawn that looks like a TP, um some of the homebuilders here have started to bounce back recently as rates have come in at the long end of the curve. What do you make of this move

[7:25:08] higher here? And dare I say, >> the last time that we saw ZB go back to tried getting filled on a long put spread and I [snorts] didn't. So now

[7:25:20] that we're back there today, what should we be doing? We get a second bite of we be doing? We get a second bite of this apple. I did. So I bought a put spread in where is it? Where is it?

[7:25:32] Where is it? Iyr. So I bought the 105106 put spread now is 16 days. That was just put spread now is 16 days. That was just a a long vertical cuz I couldn't get any any any decent credits for selling stuff in there. I'm just bearish on home

[7:25:46] in there. I'm just bearish on home builders. Um I just I think interest rates is going to be it's going to make it hard for people to buy houses. You're on you you have exposure to the real estate market, Chris, and so it's I just

[7:25:59] think it's harder. Um I don't I'm bearish on this stuff. ITB. I don't see a lot of trading in there, but if you wanted to get short ZB here, I would be

[7:26:11] with you. So, I would go just the regular. I would go just the regular. What do I get for the 1112s?

[7:26:25] I'm liking this TP. I'm liking I I think you know we're we're if we're gonna do that then some convexity wouldn't hurt. I like the 109 108s here. You're paying 14 on that debit there. But I'm more than okay with that. I know the

[7:26:39] bit thinner here going into the closing. Maybe it doesn't get filled right now, of the day there was a bounce back in bonds. They collapsed last week. Oil's near cycle lows closer than the highs. If it's going to be rangebound TP, we

[7:26:52] the corner. Who's to say that oil doesn't want to have some of its own time in the sun? But ES today, it's going to finish down 18 points here. Uh NASDAQ up 8/10 9/10en of a percent lower. We have some wonderful and

[7:27:06] wonderfully important earnings coming up here after hours. Western Digital, SanDisk, eBay TP. We didn't talk eBay. How could we forget eBay? overtime [clears throat] because overtime's coming up next. Gus Downing

[7:27:18] in, TP out. [laughter] We'll see everyone after the break.

[7:27:37] When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So if you are assigned, it means your option against your will ultimately has turned

[7:27:50] into 100 shares of long or short stock. >> What does a green scratch mean? >> Ooh, a green scratch refers to stubbornness getting the best of you. And when I say you, I mean me. Uh, green scratch refers to rolling a position,

[7:28:05] defending a position, and instead of just closing it for a less than uh loss that you're seeing, or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss, a green scratch is when you close it for maybe a 5-cent winner, 10-cent winner, 15-cent winner. Just the

[7:28:18] ability to see that green number on your screen and get out in a profitable way screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss.

[7:28:33] today's traders. See it, click it, trade it. Drill into data, find opportunity, and track the action with hundreds of indicators. Track your options, profit, and loss history over time per symbol. Note your progress and plan your tactics

[7:28:49] account and start trading right in the app. The tools, the data, the knowledge. See it, click it, trade it. Join the club. Tasty trading.

[7:29:16] day long. It's still Wednesday, August 5th, 2026. This is Overtime. I'm your Downing in Chicago. We're here to take you through the next 30 minutes or 28 as we wind down this trading day here. Gus, uh the market was up on its highs,

[7:29:30] all-time highs for the S&P at least when the session started, but the market gave some back over the course of the day. We did have this John Dean fellow leaving Google, which apparently is worth about $200 million in market cap for a single

[7:29:43] employee exiting the company. Not the first or second or third time that a caused the company to lose 3, four, 5% in a day, but here we are. It happened again. Broadly speaking though, Gus, volatility is in as stocks come off

[7:29:59] call buying yesterday was driving yesterday's market with V expanding alongside stocks moving to new highs. But here we are. Sandis earnings, a whole bunch of them that are coming out after hours. Uh let's just start

[7:30:13] you today and what are you thinking about so for some of these earnings as the after hour? >> Yeah. Yeah. Uh, treating me pretty well today. Uh, I did I did rotate out of my neutral position on S&P, which I'm sure

[7:30:27] will will come right back over the next two weeks now and finish exactly where I did go ahead and liquidate that as, uh, as the upside momentum seems to sustain. that I expected today. Uh it's it's tough to, you know, put in another, you

[7:30:41] you're already this elevated. I don't necessarily think that this slight down stretch. I think it's just natural for here at the top. Uh pleased with the, you know, shortdated shorts that I put

[7:30:55] Palanteer. Is that uh sunk down nicely for me? Feel like I got some real solid >> Can I give us some earnings here? >> Absolutely. Go give some earnings here. >> Western Digital's out 356 versus 330. Uh, rev is your beat as well. 3.747

[7:31:10] billion versus 3.7. So, not that significant of a beat. EPS up 109%, revs up 44%. I haven't seen guidance chip, but the market clearly disgusted with these earnings. Uh, anything else meaningful here? Um, Axon,

[7:31:24] which they make those uh I think tasers and cameras for police equipment. They came in at a$188 versus a 184. They also beat on Rav's 94.4 million versus 876.5 million. Um EPS is still down but they

[7:31:40] are guiding a little bit higher here. And then have we seen SanDisk yet which I have not seen cross my screen? Southound Merkel Libre Symbotic. No. No. No. Um okay. So that's where we stand right now. Western Digital 470

[7:31:55] right now. Western Digital 470 here after hours. No good for me Mr. here after hours. No good for me Mr. Gus with my 500 510 short put spread. >> Yeah. Yeah, that is that is no good at all. This is Yeah, I'm I'm I'm intrigued

[7:32:07] by this. I I I don't have any uh action on in any either of these memory names going off today, but Sandic and Western Digital both I I I would have had slight and maybe trade, I I would have I would have chosen to get long. Uh this this

[7:32:21] the rundown that we've seen, this feels like the time where they could surprise. certainly have the the propensity and the demand schedules to surprise from time to time. So I am uh I am surprised to see Western Digital just dying here

[7:32:35] after after the report and interested to see how how SanDisk comes in. We rarely rather between these memory companies. So I would expect SanDisk to be uh and perhaps perform the same but you

[7:32:48] >> We were going into today's earnings for Western Digital with a $95 expected move. Um, you know, roughly speaking, we could head down to about $430, $435 or so. Uh, 2 days to expiration out now looks like $78 priced and so still in

[7:33:02] that 450 area. Technically, we are still working on an inside move to relative to where we were priced, Gus. So, all is not lost and we've seen how these things another 50 bucks or bounces right back, I don't think anyone should be shocked

[7:33:15] waiting to see those Sandist earnings though. Uh, I have yet to see them pop across my screen. We do have app loving which this is going to be a fun report. here too. So we're going to go to that first where SanDisk is likewise down. Uh

[7:33:32] they have $3929 25 in EPS, excuse me, versus $34.52 25 in EPS, excuse me, versus $34.52 expected. Gus, um their EPS is up 13,434% year-over-year. Pretty good. Uh revenues

[7:33:48] 8.965 billion versus 8.39 billion. That's up 372% year-over-year. Uh we were at a close of 1351. We're down to 1226 right now in this market. Taking a

[7:34:00] look at the expected move for today. It was down to about 1150 or so. Uh so thus far staying in there, hanging in there right now. But the NASDAQ net effect, uh now down to session lows, basically 1.06% here after hours.

[7:34:14] a stab at SanDisk if if we get if we if we retest this 10,00 level. Um, yeah, move down today. I I'm I'm going to do it. I'm ready to get hurt again. Oh god. Tell me about App Leven. What do we got going here? App is 376 versus 375 on

[7:34:31] going here? App is 376 versus 375 on their EPS. Uh, revenues miss 1.924 billion versus 1.94 billion expected. So, while EPS and revenues are up, share So, while EPS and revenues are up, share prices are in here at 325.

[7:34:44] Uh Gus, I covered this in a signal versus noise video ahead of today's versus noise video ahead of today's earnings report because this stock is crazy. Um just for comparison here, let me just pull up the exact number that I

[7:34:57] had written down earlier because it kind of just draws the underscore underneath of just draws the underscore underneath it. H where did you go? Of course, um just by float comparisonwise, taking a look at AMD versus

[7:35:11] look at AMD versus Apploven for example, AMD has 1.6 63 billion shares available in the market. Um, Apploven is closer to I know this isn't great TV, so you're going to have to bear with me here.

[7:35:26] Apple has 306 million shares outstanding against what was a $133 billion market cap prior to today's 20% loss. Um, but that, as I explained

[7:35:38] that shrinking float. The float has shrunk by about 21.4% 4% over the past management's bought back 76.6 million shares. When you have a company with a shrinking float with this kind of stock price, it just caters to a wild swing.

[7:35:54] reports here, I didn't have a trade out of this. I have no desire to trade something where its history is frequently moving outside the expected dice. Um, if you were trading to the expected move, by the way, for the two

[7:36:07] days to expiration, that carried you down to, where are we right now? It was 106 bucks in either direction. Gus, you know where we are? >> Starting to get beyond that, we're getting beyond that expected move. We're

[7:36:20] getting outside that expected move. >> Um, and so previous earnings reports here, Q126, it was up 6.4% but then was down 3.3% after week. Q425 stock dropped 19.7% the

[7:36:35] next day and was still down 11.5% a week later. Um, but you can go back through later. Um, but you can go back through history here. Uh, Q225 up 12% the next history here. Uh, Q225 up 12% the next day. Q125 up 12% the next day. Q4 up 24%

[7:36:47] the next day. Q3 24 up 46% the next day. So, I just wanted to stay away from this thing because it just has had the tendency to blow out and here you are uh sitting down hundred and odd dollars $110 from where we closed. sanity. Yeah,

[7:37:03] App1 certainly, I think, uh, checks checks the boxes for a company that I could see getting completely squeezed out in the age of AI, honestly, as as AI improves and as uh, you know, social media platforms are able to do their own

[7:37:16] advertising matchmaking, so to speak. Uh, it feels like Apploving could could there if they don't really, I don't know, keep keep their finger on the pulse and and keep their own AI integration strong.

[7:37:29] the folks and the trades that we were covering in the signal versus noise video, those August 21st 410 calls that were purchased for $3.37 million, Gus, [sighs and gasps] I don't know if those are going to hit

[7:37:44] >> that uh it would it would take something it would take something serious at this >> Not every trade works as we have seen here from what AMD today. It's down after hours. Ah, what a bummer. I was in the short um iron condor in this uh uh

[7:37:58] the short um iron condor in this uh uh yesterday um and decided to get out of you're looking at something that's like $5 wide you're in at $2 and change on credit and it shrinks to 30 cents. What are you doing there? You're at 85% max

[7:38:15] days to go. Your game of risk is so high. Uh Liz pointed out today that given the market pricing, I could also go in there and sell another call spread in here so that I could effectively prevent myself from bearing any more

[7:38:27] back into an iron condor position now. 475 480 with a 495 497 and a half uh content with the price action here after hours, of course, but either way, I feel locked in because this has drifted lower

[7:38:42] that 480 short strike. And that means this short call spread side is actually the way. So, trying to clean up a position, not that was broken or messy because I did make money on one of the legs. Um, but seeing if I can extract a

[7:38:56] >> Yeah, that's the that's the power of options. So, so many abilities to to moni so so much ability to monetize every every little thing. Um, I like it. Yeah. You know, it's a way to try to try

[7:39:08] out of a half winner, turn it into a threequarter one, you know. can be done. There's always more work that can be done. Hey, a little bit a little bit more earnings here. A few of the the fund names now are out. eBay$160

[7:39:22] versus a$151 expected. So, it beats by 6%. Revs also beat by 4%. Uh, stock here closes at 1114. It's currently 110 after hours. We have Zillow. Have you checked yours estimate lately? Uh, I know I have, and it's part of the reason why

[7:39:37] my local personal life that we need to build more housing around here. I don't forming families can afford to buy a starter home for $1.5 million. It's >> Yeah, I don't know if I'll ever buy a house, but that's kind of that's kind of

[7:39:51] beside the point. Continue. [laughter] >> Yeah, that's that's not right. Um 52 cents. I'm saying that's not right as in like you're wrong as in like that's not >> Mor morally not right. I'd follow >> 52 cents versus 45 cents expected. Uh we

[7:40:06] closed here at 368. We're down to 35. The expected move here. This is looking a little interesting. The expected move uh is sitting out at the 16 days to expected move here, gosh, even though it's down, you're maybe doing okay with

[7:40:22] two-day strike, there's no 9-day strike, there's only a 16-day strike. Um, and then finally, Door Dash, which I will say I just do not use those anymore say I just do not use those anymore because I'm not paying a 20% premium to

[7:40:36] save myself a 3minute trip to the grocery store. Uh, they missed 46 cents versus 47 expected. So, EPS down 29% [snorts] year-over-year. Uh, share prices here closed at 207. We're down to 197 right now. The 2-day expected move

[7:40:49] brought us down to about 187 and a half. So, we're still inside of it right now at NASDAQ here off by 8/10en of a percent, the S&P off by less than onetenth of a percent. Western Digital is bouncing back a little bit, 478. And

[7:41:05] SanDisk here has bounced back to 1315. So a cool $120 off the low there, Mr. wonder I don't know what kind of was sort of my my thesis for being long

[7:41:20] SanDisk is the guidance because that's where I think these they could really have 2x the backlog that you expect that them and the demand is just incredible and hard to quantify in this sector

[7:41:32] right now. >> You you know we you just get a 10% bounce here after hours. You know saying oh it's $120 off the low. It hit 1,200. It's up $120 off the low. [laughter] That's a 10% bounce in the past

[7:41:45] 3 minutes. five minutes. Okay. Uh Sandis, their revenue, you say the guidance here. Let's find that guidance. They're looking at guidance of 10.3 to 10.8 billion versus 10.47

[7:42:03] billion expected and their Q1 adjusted EPS of 44 to $46 a share versus the street consensus of $431. $431. So, uh, their guidance, right,

[7:42:17] the street estimate is within their guidance, but within it's in the lower part of the range. So, that's good. Um, the EPS range is a the guidance is out, it makes sense that the share price has bounced back. Uh,

[7:42:31] that it's going to be like this for a lot of these companies. Outside the expected move, now back in it. It's a slinky, man. I didn't play a Sandis today. I just I don't have the stomach for it.

[7:42:43] >> Yeah, I I I certainly didn't either. I I I I joke on air all the time, but it's just true. I am a rug for SanDisk. I mean, what whatever I think will happen and that extends right to me thinking that it would move up off earnings

[7:42:57] losses, but I don't know. I don't know about up uh at the open tomorrow. So, I five on my SanDisk trades. I didn't back this one with any conviction, but I am 0

[7:43:09] for four on on financial SanDisk trades and 0 for one on SanDisk predictions. No skin in the game. >> You didn't lose any money. That's what the second half of the week here, Gus? I'm looking through the earnings

[7:43:22] start to >> wind down a little bit. We have Kico morning. >> I have I have a neutral uh yeah, I sold an iron condor in Kico Phillips. uh you you can tell me what you think about

[7:43:35] this line of logic, but my logic is that I think oil is like the most efficient sector we could pos we possibly have in the market right now. Uh everything, you immediately right away. We've already had a couple other petroleum companies

[7:43:47] report earnings. All that's already accurately priced into Kico. So my thesis is basically just that I don't know that the market the the market in than 3% wrong, which is essentially the cushion I'm giving myself is 3% in

[7:44:00] attack attack attacking this one with with neutrality, but it is a boring one. >> I'm waiting to see those accidental earnings come out, which they have not yet. If you see them, let me know. Uh, put on a short call spread here going

[7:44:16] look at some of these charts, Gus. There's a real clear line in the sand between what companies are able to capture the additional surplus, so to

[7:44:28] speak, created by the Iran war within the oil markets versus those that are the oil markets versus those that are kind of just along for the ride. Uh I I I go back to the refiners, for example, the refiners are

[7:44:40] doing a lot better than the folks who are charged with taking the stuff out of the ground, the EMP, the oil field service company. So, you know, you go to like a Chevron for example, you go to an accidental, for example, those charts

[7:44:53] look a lot more similar than say like, you know, crack the ETF or we could go to Marathon Petroleum, which it looks a lot like crack or PSX, which as you can imagine looks a lot like Crack. Those other ones look like XLE. And so, I went

[7:45:07] these companies just they're they're not taking advantage of this environment. can't they can't permanently deploy capital to open up new rigs if oil isn't going to stay at $100 a barrel guaranteed and it's not and it's already

[7:45:19] back into the 70s. So their fiscal discipline is obviously good for shareholders because they're not throwing good money after bad. But it the you know margins and revenues that they've seen in recent months are going

[7:45:31] to expand in perpetuity into the future. So I I like the fundamental breakdown. the technicals don't look great to me and there was enough vague in there to warrant maybe looking short oxy here a touch.

[7:45:43] >> Yeah, I I I certainly see that line of logic. I mean, the guidance can't be I don't know. I don't want to say can't be good, but it certainly there there's not that is going to guide that they can sustain the revenue they just did in

[7:45:55] this previous quarter into future quarters. It's obviously a very cyclical game. Um but at the same time obviously they've all done pretty well this chugging up a little bit on Oxy. We got numbers here.

[7:46:07] >> Uh we do I mean they beat nice dollar6 versus 59 cents. That's what companies do. Uh whether or not they're able to sustain that move moving forward is another story here. Will my short call spread be tested here. 55 56 I don't

[7:46:20] >> I don't know. Doesn't look like it, which is fine. Going to get rid of it intention of keeping this. No reason to keep this. So yeah. Uh, I have 240 versus 185 expected 8.327 versus 725 in

[7:46:34] those revenues. EPS up 515% year-over-year. Very nice. Rev's up 29%. comes out. Show me the guidance. >> I feel like Christian Bale and and would happen as well. You know, I think this might be emomatic of what we'll see

[7:46:50] excitement about the the big numbers that just went up this quarter, but can what can they say in the guidance to to keep that elevation or inject more much. I feel that the guidance has to be something like, you know, we we had a

[7:47:04] great quarter. Tensions in Iran seem to be easing. Uh we can't, you know, be sure it'll be maybe big ranges for for revenue moving forward. I I pity the the the accountant somewhere in in Oxidental Petroleum's uh bowels right now trying

[7:47:18] guidance for the next quarter amid tensions that we're seeing right now. difficult in this environment. 5459 here. So, Western Digital Nor Oxy may be working out today. Some things work out, some things don't. Uh WDC down at 466

[7:47:33] still on the chart and SanDisk that is at 1280 and I'd expect that to stay whippy here for the next little bit. you know, the earnings are basically today in terms of the big ones that are expected to come out. Um, you mentioned

[7:47:49] that we have Kico Phillips Brothers Airbnb tomorrow after hours. Some of worth discussing. I mean, Warner Brothers if you're in it, if you're in Constellation Energy, you have some things to contend with. But, uh, Friday,

[7:48:03] Vistra, Take Two Interactive, I have something going on in Take Two Interactive. I suppose that applies to me. Uh, where we at here? 23 days to go. The short 220 225 put spread. I got that

[7:48:17] back when we dipped here in the mid portion of July. I don't know. What do you think about take two? Are we going to get Are we die? [laughter] >> That's actually exactly what I was about

[7:48:30] to bring up. I I really don't hate take two as a uh as as a as a longer term play into the into the end of the year or I mean potentially even just going for for some super longdated covered calls and if you can't uh you know get

[7:48:42] get that that that GTA excitement because I'll tell you what sometimes it it really can be that simple with with some of these companies. I I know um I had a very successful trade last year in in Peace Guy Paramount uh when they

[7:48:54] acquired the UFC because they they got the rights to the UFC. They're in a takeaway pay-per-view. is this exciting thing and TKO Group went soaring in the minutes after the announcement and for some reason Peace Sky lagged behind and

[7:49:06] then all of a sudden went soaring two days later. Uh but and the revenue it's it's come back down now. The revenue hasn't even really uh you know shown itself yet, but you do get those initial runups. So sometimes, yeah, just the the

[7:49:18] GTA 6 hype might be enough to to inject some energy into into Take 2. I hate 2K though, which they also have their hands on, so it's give and take.

[7:49:32] stuck on that date for a little while now, too. I I have growing confidence that's not going to move. >> You know, I think I want like a Red Dead Redemption 3 before I want a GTA 6. Red Dead Redemption 2 was like a hell was a

[7:49:45] excellent, but I'm I'm certainly more more excited for GTA. >> Just the the the online elements of of GTA are what are what make it so great >> Oh god, no. Oh, see that never did it for me. You know why? Because my work

[7:49:59] out and all the online modes came out, I was still working that 4:00 a.m. to noon shift. And so when I would play, like my my then girlfriend now wife is at work, exercise, I get a bite to eat, I'm going to go home and play video games. I'm

[7:50:13] afternoon that are getting out of school. >> It's not like adults that I'm playing with online. It was It's like I don't >> the kids the kids are better than you. I I I say this all the time. I I I play a

[7:50:25] thing. Yeah. You can't as as you see some if you're up up against somebody League, pack your bags, buddy. Go ahead and forfeit right now. You're cooked. I on weekdays. They got to get past the bedtime before you start dealing with

[7:50:38] some actual feet. >> Yeah. Like who's this Chris 1989 guy? Who's this? [laughter] Get out of here. H. All right. So, you know, you Warner Brothers coming up. This thing has been pinned. It's kind of been stuck

[7:50:51] the signal here. But the market knows this. As long as it's legislation, or this. As long as it's legislation, or rather I should say its merger um is stock really has nothing to do. But earnings are coming out in two days. Is

[7:51:04] there volatility? Would you even play something like this? Guys, I have all available strikes listed here if I just wanted to go to a neat little six. Market makers are not giving you anything beyond 24 and a half or 27

[7:51:17] >> Yeah. Yeah. And that >> uh you could go further down, but like this where do you see the I just want to bring up the delta as a quick point here once you go out to $25. So that's that's a that's less than a dollar away. Less

[7:51:30] than 4%. Eight delta. [laughter] Yeah. I mean that that sounds about right to me. And I mean why would Warner Brothers do anything? They've they've been caught in the middle of of of two uh divorce

[7:51:42] who gets custody of Warner Brothers. But uh you know when it when when push comes to shove as it pertains to Warner Brothers specifically all we know is and and the bids are at very similar prices. Paramount's bid is a little bit

[7:51:56] this time. They had to give the big payout to Netflix to get them out of there. But um it's yeah I mean we're we're pretty sure that this thing gets acquired at the very least. It's just a matter of who uh what what reason would

[7:52:10] make any massive swings? because I think everybody's just going to have their ears open more for any acquisition news in the earnings report tomorrow than the actual numbers. >> Uh TP was right. TP was right. He said

[7:52:22] that multiple Google employees laid off today. I didn't see that. So it was Jeff Dean and then Deise Sabi also stepped down as Deep Mind CEO. Wow. Two >> It's got to feel so good to leave a company and see their see their

[7:52:34] got to be a pat on the back. I And I say the inverse as well. >> The day of the day. >> It's true. It's true. Also, I mean, I fair amount of Google stock. I'm sure you don't really want this to happen.

[7:52:46] worst feeling in the world to be CEO that departs a company and then shares go up, which we do see happen from time to time. It's like, damn, it really was >> Yeah. Yeah. Really? [laughter] The market's like, "Thank God the schmucks

[7:52:58] >> Yeah. Exactly. This guy has not delivered shareholder returns. Yeah. I mean, listen, if Google fell like 5% next week or in a month and like Jeff "See, you fell because of me." Be like, "What are you talking about?" Your

[7:53:11] announcement was public like on August 5th and the No, but yeah, this is not Google, though. They've lost a few key employees and the stock is very very very sensitive to it. It responds immediately the day of Gus. I just don't

[7:53:25] >> I don't believe that any single person is that important. Uh and Google's a great company. So, I put on a Super Bowl after this fall today. 325 335 short put spread 39400 long call spread side. What else is there to say? Yeah, I I

[7:53:39] >> I'll buy that dip all day long. >> Absolutely. Absolutely. I I'm right there with you and I might look might look get long off the open tomorrow. Um but yeah, it's just anybody especially when we're not talking about seuite

[7:53:52] executives. Uh it's there's there's there is many great minds. Google has uh world not named Nvidia. There there's there's no reason that they're not going people who are just as capable and they may poach them from other companies who

[7:54:07] who could could look to you could look to short as well. But uh yeah, I think Google lands on their feet just fine. This this has to be. Frank says in all caps um not all caps, the the the word has is lowercase, but

[7:54:21] everything else is capitalized. Google has 240 billion in cash, which I think as why only one word in there was not capitalized. Frank, please let me know.

[7:54:33] me. I got to get that out of my system. Uh Gus, dollars and come over here for a 3% match. Go on. I'm sorry. >> Oh, no. That's good. Um top tickers today as we wind down the session. I AMD

[7:54:47] top of the board. Uh Spy, Sandex, SpaceX, Nvidia, Micron, Triple Q's, DTE Energy has been showing up in lots of different places recently. I'm not sure have a lot of Alphabet, Google and Google, Western Digital, Microsoft

[7:55:02] Palanter, Apple, Amazon. Those are your top 15 tickers that have been upvoted on those names jump out to you as like, oh, why are people talking about this? And maybe I already did that with DTE. I mean, yeah, honestly, no. DTE is is kind

[7:55:16] really jump out on that list. I mean, it's everything else is is Mac 7 plus Palanteer, which obviously is hot topic right now. Um yeah, I don't know. Apple Apple in an interesting spot here. I mean they were

[7:55:29] they were at uh you know five trillion. I mean what just a week ago and all of a sudden they're back down at 4.5. Uh they Google has passed them again in terms of valuation. Uh if I I have been eyeing this to you know kind of think decide

[7:55:42] filled to the upside. I certainly think it's a real possibility but I need to I'm I'm inclined to back that with some cash. >> Interesting. Apple looks really interesting here.

[7:55:56] Really interesting. Does the market really think people aren't going to buy get their endorphins and their dopamine? >> Yeah. Yeah. My my my screen time. Kill a Victorian child. >> I saw my screen time on Sunday morning

[7:56:10] last week. I'm usually like 14 hours, 15 hours for whatever my phone's doing because I have stuff playing whenever. Last week I was average. >> Nice. What?

[7:56:24] >> Well, good. >> I don't know. I guess I just wasn't using my phone. Focused on the market, focused on my kids. Like, that's I think >> Yeah, I I I agree. I agree that you should children obviously take priority

[7:56:37] as a as a as a childless 24 year old myself. Uh 14 15 is Yeah, it's certainly uh table stakes at this point. Times I'll I'll eclipse 16. What happens? I think tomorrow I am going to put on a bit of a Super Bowl in Apple. Uh below

[7:56:52] the 100 day at 296 with the long sitting at 335 just off the expected move. You collect 20 cents a credit, 19 cents a credit there. Um you know, something to bulk of the earning season here. NASDAQ still down about 1% after those SanDisk

[7:57:07] out. We'll just take a quick peek there before we log off here. 519 was the close. We're down to 46744. SanDisk that likewise fell down to 1,200 but it's back to 1303 here after hours from a 1351 close. You're obviously

[7:57:22] of this guidance if you're uh you know something that you're trading longer these stocks after their earnings if they were earnings plays. Gus, whatever because it's two days to expiration and no one wants to get assigned. So don't

[7:57:35] get assigned. I have this nightmare that I'm coming down the pipeline here, Gus, that now that we're I feel like I might get wheeled into this thing with the 510 >> I just got assigned 200 shares of TLT today myself. So, I'm I'm I'm fresh off

[7:57:49] the assignment PTSD. >> I'm already wheeling out of trade in we'll make the best of it if it comes. Right, Gus? Uh, thanks for joining us Tasty Live programming continues tomorrow morning, 7:30 Central time,

[7:58:04] 8:30 Eastern. That's how you quote that. Uh for Gus Downing, I've been Chris Veio. We'll see you tomorrow. Good luck trading. Hope you have a good night.

[7:58:39] We've got a crazy day for you with a lot of earnings reports that happened after of earnings reports that happened after the close