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Holiday Week Options Setup — Full Breakdown & Transcript

0h 34m video Published Jun 29, 2026 Transcribed Aug 9, 2026 tastylive tastylive
Intermediate 7 min read For: Options traders and futures investors with intermediate knowledge of market volatility, implied moves, and position management.
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"Title accurately reflects the content — a focused discussion on holiday week options setup and pricing."

AI Summary

This video provides a detailed market analysis and options trading setup for the holiday week leading up to July 4th. The hosts discuss key events like the jobs report, sector rotation, and specific trade ideas for managing positions during a shortened trading period.

[03:16]
SPX Implied Move for Holiday Week

The SPX implied move for the 4-day holiday week is plus/minus 115 points, indicating decent volatility. The hosts note that this is slightly lower than a non-holiday week but still significant.

[04:01]
Interest Rate Hike Probability

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 30% chance of a rate hike in July, which is surprising given the previous talk of rate cuts. The highest probability for December is a hold at 350-375 basis points.

[12:06]
Managing Positions for Holiday Break

The hosts recommend rolling near-term options positions out by a month to increase extrinsic value and desensitize to intraday moves during the holiday break. They emphasize using the tasty platform's organization features to manage multiple expirations.

[14:50]
Sector Rotation and AI Stocks

Micron was down 7% on Friday but is still up 400% in the last three months. The hosts see this as a healthy sector rotation, with money moving from hardware to software and other sectors like healthcare.

[19:22]
Iron Condor Trade Idea

The host plans to sell an iron condor in SPX for $200 credit, risking $300, to take advantage of expected low volatility before the jobs report. This trade is designed to profit from time decay and implied volatility crush.

[20:17]
Futures vs. Equities for Options Trading

Futures offer extended trading hours, super liquidity, and no gap risk, making them preferable for managing options positions compared to equity options like SPY.

[23:08]
Palantir and SpaceX Trades

The host has a bullish diagonal spread in Palantir with strikes at 160, 180, and 200, and plans to roll the short component to the earnings cycle if needed. He also has an asymmetric risk trade in SpaceX, selling a put at 125 to finance a call at 300, collecting a $350 credit.

[27:25]
Upcoming Earnings and Events

Key events this week include the jobs report on Thursday, Tesla Q2 deliveries, and earnings from Nike, Constellation Brands, and General Mills. The host has a long call LEAP in Nike at the 60 strike expiring in January 2028.

[30:52]
Crude Oil Trade Management

The host has a straddle in micro crude oil at the 76 strike, having collected $500 in premium, with a break-even around $71.50. He plans to roll this position before the holiday to add more premium.

Mentioned in this Video

Tutorial Checklist

1 03:16 Check the SPX implied move for the week to gauge expected volatility. For the holiday week, it was ±115 points.
2 04:01 Review the CME FedWatch tool to understand interest rate probabilities. Note the 30% chance of a July hike.
3 09:21 Identify positions that need management for the holiday break. Focus on near-term options expirations.
4 10:04 Roll near-term positions out by at least a month to increase extrinsic value and reduce sensitivity to intraday moves.
5 11:29 For a bullish bias, consider keeping the downside strike and moving the call side up to collect a net credit.
6 19:22 If expecting low volatility, sell an iron condor in SPX for a credit (e.g., $200 credit, $300 risk) to profit from time decay.
7 24:33 For long-term positions like SpaceX, sell a put to finance an out-of-the-money call, collecting a credit for asymmetric risk.
8 30:52 Monitor crude oil positions and consider rolling them before the holiday to add more premium and adjust break-even levels.

Study Flashcards (14)

What is the SPX implied move for the 4-day holiday week?

easy Click to reveal answer

The SPX implied move for the 4-day holiday week is plus/minus 115 points.

03:16

What is the probability of a rate hike in July according to the CME FedWatch tool?

medium Click to reveal answer

There is a 30% chance of a rate hike in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

04:01

What was the most active traded level on Nasdaq last week?

medium Click to reveal answer

The most active traded level on Nasdaq last week was 29,699.

06:58

What strategy is recommended for managing options positions ahead of a long holiday weekend?

hard Click to reveal answer

To manage positions for a long weekend, the hosts recommend rolling near-term positions out by a month to increase extrinsic value and desensitize to intraday moves.

12:06

How much was Micron down on Friday and how much is it up over the last three months?

medium Click to reveal answer

Micron was down 7% on Friday but is still up 400% in the last three months.

14:50

Why is sector rotation considered a healthy sign for the market?

hard Click to reveal answer

Sector rotation is seen as a healthy sign because money is moving from hardware stocks into other sectors like healthcare and consumer staples, rather than a broad sell-off.

15:19

What specific iron condor trade does the host plan to execute in SPX?

hard Click to reveal answer

The host plans to sell an iron condor in SPX for $200 credit, risking $300, to take advantage of the expected chop before the jobs report.

19:22

What advantages do futures have over equity options for managing positions?

medium Click to reveal answer

Futures offer extended trading hours, super liquidity, and no gap risk, unlike equity options.

20:17

What is the host's trade setup in Palantir and how does he plan to adjust it?

hard Click to reveal answer

The host has a bullish diagonal spread in Palantir with strikes at 160, 180, and 200, and plans to roll the short component to the earnings cycle if needed.

23:08

Describe the asymmetric risk trade the host has in SpaceX.

hard Click to reveal answer

The host sold a put at the 125 strike to finance an out-of-the-money call at 300 in SpaceX, collecting a $350 credit.

24:33

At what price is Bitcoin trading, and what is the host's sentiment?

easy Click to reveal answer

Bitcoin is trading at about $59,290, and the host is cautious about catching a falling knife.

26:18

Which companies are reporting earnings this week?

medium Click to reveal answer

Key earnings this week include Tesla Q2 deliveries, Nike, Constellation Brands, and General Mills.

27:25

What is the host's position in Nike?

medium Click to reveal answer

The host has a long call LEAP in Nike at the 60 strike expiring in January 2028.

27:39

What is the host's crude oil trade and its current status?

hard Click to reveal answer

The host has a straddle in micro crude oil at the 76 strike, having collected $500 in premium, with a break-even around $71.50.

30:52

💡 Key Takeaways

📊

SPX Implied Move for Holiday Week

Quantifies the expected volatility for the short trading week, a key input for options traders.

03:16
💡

Rate Hike Probability Surprises

Highlights the disconnect between market expectations of rate cuts and the actual probability of a hike, a critical macro factor.

04:01
🔧

Rolling Positions for Holiday Risk Management

Provides a concrete, actionable strategy for managing options positions during market closures.

12:06
💡

Sector Rotation as a Healthy Sign

Offers a nuanced view of market dynamics, distinguishing between a broad sell-off and a rotation, which is valuable for portfolio strategy.

15:19
🔧

Iron Condor Trade Idea for Low Volatility

Demonstrates a specific, risk-defined trade setup to capitalize on expected low volatility before a major event.

19:22
⚖️

Advantages of Futures Over Equities for Options

Explains the practical benefits of futures for options traders, including extended hours and no gap risk.

20:17
🔧

Asymmetric Risk Trade in SpaceX

Illustrates a creative, credit-generating strategy for long-term, high-volatility positions.

24:33

[01:28] somewhere, you'll you will literally see fireworks going all the way around you >> Yeah. >> Uh it's a good time, for sure. get started, what about you? You got any plans? What are you looking forward to

[01:41] >> Uh yeah. So, I'm I'm actually going to be off Thursday, Friday, going up to uh >> Oh, there we go. Cheesehead. >> family. Yeah, yeah. Seeing some family.

[01:53] Uh and I'm just going to have 1,000 brats, and it's going to be perfect. >> I'm a hot dog. Yeah. I'm on I'm more of a hot dog. Yeah, you know, the brats I I was a kid. I think one time I ate one of the bratwurst that have the cheese in it

[02:07] ever since I was a kid I just couldn't do it anymore. So, good old 100% beef >> I love it. >> Yeah. >> Um some people in the YouTube chat saying we don't have sound. I'm not sure

[02:21] We might be good to go now. >> They said they were reading They were reading the lips pretty well there. So, >> perfect. Okay, we're back. We're back. Hello everyone. Uh we were just talking about eating a thousand bratwurst,

[02:34] golfing, and uh taking some time for 4th of July. So, you didn't miss too much. Uh but we've got what? A minute until the futures open here. Uh just a quick rundown of things this week before we get into managing positions for a long

[02:50] get into managing positions for a long weekend or long uh holiday break. We got weekend or long uh holiday break. We got Thursday, jobs report in the morning. Uh Thursday, jobs report in the morning. Uh I'm interested to see if we look at SPX,

[03:02] the implied move for the week. So, um usually with holiday weekends you kind of have this lull. Uh July 2nd will be the last trading day. So, Thursday, July 2nd will be the last trading day, but still pretty

[03:16] decent implied move here if we look at SPX, plus minus 115 points. And uh for a 4-day period that's really not too shabby. Uh if we were to extrapolate that, if this was a non-holiday week, you'd have probably 125, 130 points,

[03:33] which is pretty good in terms of volatility. You've got uh jobs report on So, I think that could be really interesting for the market. Uh if you get a really strong jobs report, maybe it's a higher for longer interest

[03:47] rate outlook. They're already pricing in uh you know, a rate hike ultimately. if you look at the CME FedWatch tool, which is my favorite thing to check for interest rate probabilities, but we're currently sitting at 350 or 375.

[04:01] Uh, there's a 30% chance we get a hike in July, which is absolutely insane. All after all this talk about interest rate cuts. Um, but 46% chance that we get a

[04:13] And if we look all the way out to December, we have the highest So, uh, have you been paying attention to this at all? Have you been looking at this or kind of just trading as the

[04:25] >> Kind of just trading as the market moves each day, but I mean, with oil kind of doing exactly what the Fed wants it to do now, but core inflation isn't. My question is, which matters more, you know, here here, uh, Mike. So,

[04:40] interesting. We'll see in interesting to see how it'll shake up the markets here, but again, oil getting down to the levels where they want it now, so seems >> Yeah, one of my friends just filled up and he said it was like $6, and I'm

[04:54] like, "What are you doing? Where are you? Have you seen crude oil prices?" >> Is this premium? Let's see, my question is he doing premium 90, the the good stuff, but even even then, it's six six a gallon. That's That's That's a steep

[05:06] >> Yeah, he's definitely pumping the good stuff. I think he he's got a a newer a >> Yeah, yeah, yeah. >> Yeah. >> Um, but yeah, I think, uh, all things considered, E-minis are up

[05:18] 850, Nasdaq chopping around, down 30, uh, down the Russell right now, up a tiny bit, but so, nothing crazy here. Uh, no gap moves higher or lower. We saw some headlines, uh, for some of the, uh,

[05:32] war stuff that might have spooked the markets a little bit, but at least right now, it's not looking like that's the case. Nasdaq just ticked green, so all four, uh, of the major indices, E-minis, Nasdaq, Dow, Russell, all green right

[05:45] Um, but yeah, jobs report Thursday. I think that'll be really interesting and I think when you look at SPX for Thursday, it does have a pretty high implied move. If you look at

[05:59] Monday's 60 points in either direction all the way out to Thursday 115 points. So seeing the biggest IV reading in that day as well. So I think the market is is prepping for that. But you also have some labor market data before that

[06:15] report. So you've got some stuff that could move the market. But again, I think Thursday based on implied volatility in SPX will probably be the day to watch if you're looking for some intraday volatility or maybe a gap

[06:29] down gap up. E-minis and Nasdaq ripping higher now. of a reversal here off the lows from the Friday close here. Pretty aggressive so far some decent volatility especially on a Sunday night. Um I know something

[06:43] into this week especially on products like Nasdaq. I know SPX, Nasdaq, ES, all those are highly correlated products. So the same range might be in the same area on all three of these products. But I know on Nasdaq, the most active traded

[06:58] level last week that had the most traded volume was 29,699 sold off from. So it's going to be interesting to see if you know kind of of a line in the sand. Obviously, we have things like NFP, some other

[07:13] fundamentals that could shift things. But um it's it's going to be line in the sand and uh you know, we'll see how we shape up from there from there, Mike. I know these are very arbitrary levels. But kind of

[07:27] after the fact will be will be cool to see um especially in a shorter week. >> Yeah, 100% and I think with these short weeks, I think it's camps. You You lack of volume could see big moves, but

[07:43] then you also have both things going to happen. We might just be up or down like attention. I think if I were to pick one direction, I think I might lean towards that where you kind of have this inside shop and

[07:58] you kind of settle between the trading ranges that we've seen over the last week or so, especially with the volatility structure not looking too crazy. I mean, things have flattened

[08:11] even if you look through all of these expirations, you're still you still have a contango. Albeit, it is flatter than we've seen in quite some time with these VIX futures. So, >> No, most definitely.

[08:25] Um no, just just looking for Frank looking like he's taking advantage of market as the market opens up here. So, shout out to NASDAQ there. Uh been speaking pretty recently on that MES strangle as well. I know Chris says

[08:39] over here, "Strange how little decay I've had on the downside puts for Ford/MES. My upside is the same distance away just about and hasn't decayed a away just about and hasn't decayed a ton." He's got the 7,100 and 7,700

[08:52] strangle on there. If the market were to rally this week, uh Mike, some important levels, whatever everybody has marked off on their maybe above some of the highs from the end of last week. How are you thinking

[09:06] if that were to happen? Are you kind of still just uh rolling those untested possible? Um how are you approaching the strangle? the holistic answer for managing for a long

[09:21] not going to be around the platform is to just push things out in time. So, I've already done that with a lot of these positions, but like MCL, I've been rolling week to week specifically to to pick up the implied volatility of these

[09:37] near-term cycles, but like MES, I'm already out 54 days. MNQ, I'm out 33 days. So, I just put this trade on last week though, but I think that's put this on before we sold off pretty hard in the market. So, it's it's

[09:52] hard in the market. So, it's it's marking a $170 extrinsic value loss, but what I would consider is like, "Okay, I'm at 33 days. Let's say So, for me, I'm going to be out Wednesday. That would be the last day that I can trade."

[10:04] Friday, market's closed. I'll be back Monday. Uh but let's say I was out the whole week and I had an M MNQ position and I was leaving tomorrow. Well, I'd probably take this 33-day position and I'd probably push it

[10:19] at least a couple weeks. And you can see the nice thing about the tasty platform is you have this nice organization. So, I know that all of these options expirations that are this darker shade is held to the Q contract. So, I know

[10:32] like even if I'm in the 33-day, I can move it to the 40, the 54, the 64 uh before I get to the Z contract here. Even the 80-day is in this cycle, interestingly enough. Uh but anytime you see a last price,

[10:45] you're looking at, when you see the last price change, that indicates you are looking at a new contract. So, all of these options expirations uh if I wanted to manipulate this trade and like buy this back and just move it

[10:59] out and and desensitize the position to changes in the Nasdaq while I was gone, I'd probably just buy this back in the 33-day cycle and move it out to the 54-day cycle uh depending on where I wanted to

[11:14] be, but I'm probably I'm still leaning long here. I want to have bullish >> Yeah. >> Uh I think if anything, I would keep the downside at 29,000. Uh technically, you can move it and

[11:29] strangles is if I'm buying this back for 942 points, I just have to create a new situation or new trade where I'm collecting more than 942 points. So,

[11:41] now, but let's just say I went to the same strike here and then I moved my call side up a little bit. That would That would yield me

[11:53] a net credit for sure. But again, these markets are wide, so I would I would in the morning when the markets are a >> But yeah, that's something I would do is just like move near-term positions out a

[12:06] month or so and just give yourself a lot more extrinsic value which will naturally desensitize your positions to intraday moves this week. >> I got you. Especially like if you kind of still have the same directional bias,

[12:20] that directional bias, just giving yourself a little bit more time and >> 100% and even with a position like this like I'm leaning bullish here with the 29,000 strike that's just out of the money. If I had made that roll, I would

[12:33] add a ton of value on my short call and if we got a big washout and I wasn't able to to manage the trade, I would have a lot more extrinsic value associated with the short call and the short put as well, but the short call

[12:46] would just have a lot more hedgeability being pushed out another month. So, that would be the the one thing I'd do is if is just scan through your portfolio and obviously the futures products are the only things moving right now.

[12:59] >> 100%. I know we we tried to get a little bit of a pullback in some of these these AI names like Micron, SanDisk, Mike. It leaves me asking the question, you we're seeing here or is it the start to something bigger? I know whenever we

[13:12] look at the indices there, we put in a pretty large range, maybe we What are your thoughts on Micron, some of those AI names? >> Yeah, I mean I think these have just gone bananas to the upside.

[13:25] >> Imagine being invested for the long like imagine this being one of the products put it in just to take advantage of some of this AI exposure

[13:39] know I know Sahil's dad, he was telling me how he was heavily trading Micron and caught a caught a pretty big chunk of the move. I wish I I was on that side of nonetheless. >> Speaking of boats, that's what I always

[13:52] think about. I don't know why this this is why I think this way, but I imagine sometime in the future I'm going to see some yacht in the water and it's going to literally say it's going to say like thanks Micron or like Micron

[14:06] >> Powered by Micron. >> There you go. Powered by Micron. Yes. That That's a great boat, man. >> But yeah, I've seen the NQ license I haven't seen anything with Micron and SanDisk. It'd be hilarious. I would

[14:20] think exactly back to this moment, Mike. >> Yeah, the only boat the only boat I've related to options trading it said more theta, please. And I was like, okay. This is someone that is an options trader or or has hit it big with, you

[14:35] Um but yeah, I think we're seeing a a good because it doesn't it doesn't surprise me. I mean, from the beginning of March this has quadrupled in price. So, you're

[14:50] going to see more realized volatility, more implied volatility. But even still more implied volatility. But even still like it was down 7% on Friday, but it's still up 400% in the last like 3 months. So, I'm not too worried about it and

[15:05] because we did see some sector rotation out of some of these hardware stocks and into some other things. So, like we saw Costco rallying. We saw some of the healthcare products rallying

[15:19] healthcare products rallying and that's that's I think a healthy sign of the general market being okay at least right now where instead of people selling off aggressively, we're seeing a rotation out of these products but into

[15:33] other products in the market. So, um the Dow finished higher last week while the Nasdaq was still down. Uh so, I the the name of the game here and still like you have products like Microsoft.

[15:47] Uh Michael Burry came out and said he was a bull in Microsoft and uh that was likely the reason for this big reversal here but still from 460 when I thought this thing was just going to go right back to 550.

[16:00] >> Yeah. >> From 460 all the way down to 350, uh our buddy Glenn was not too happy cuz I was like, "Yeah, Microsoft's I I a bullish trade that I have on." And uh you know, he wants another 5 days of 20

[16:15] points 20 point moves naturally but uh this thing only had two three green bars like barely in a three week period and it was down 100 points. So, Microsoft and I think you'll see the same thing. Like you you'll probably see

[16:29] a rotation out of hardware and into software, especially names like Microsoft that are Mag 7 stocks. Uh they're not going anywhere anytime soon and if you think the E-minis and Nasdaq are going to continue higher to all-time

[16:41] are going to continue higher to all-time highs, it's likely from a rotation out into products that haven't uh participated as much. That's how you kind of get that general drift higher uh as opposed to the the straight-up rocket

[16:55] ship we saw from the war lows. >> 100% and I mean, the point that you stepping in a Microsoft here but it looks like uh the last day that highest vol. >> [snorts]

[17:08] >> Very obviously one of the highest volume traded days that it had seen in the last months and maybe even the over the last 365 days actually, Mike with uh Microsoft trading about 185 million shares. I believe that was last Friday,

[17:22] which is I mean drastically higher than any other trading day over the last 365 little bit more uh uh had a little bit more uh I guess oomph and whatever Michael Burry's getting

[17:35] active stock, no doubt. >> Yeah, for sure. Um and I think speaking to that, uh I know we we would love to draw on a trade idea here. I think for me, if I believe that the

[17:49] market's kind of just going to chop around, we're not going to see too much to make sure I'm defined risk here. But, I think the sector rotation will lend a more neutral

[18:02] uh balanced trading range in the E-minis versus the Nasdaq, cuz the Nasdaq is so volatile because it's pushing and pulling in the same direction cuz it's it's all, you know, it's all the sector or the semiconductor names, and then

[18:14] it's AI, and then it's software. So, it's it's like pushing and pulling a lot where the E-minis at least has more sector diversity. So, if we continue to see that, where Micron's down, but healthcare's up,

[18:27] uh and these other thing these other tech stocks that are in the S&P 500 uh kind of balancing out with rotation, I kind of think getting into an iron condor for the 4-day cycle, where on Monday or Tuesday, if we kind of have

[18:41] on Monday or Tuesday, if we kind of have this chop before the uh jobs report on Thursday, that could be a situation where you get a big crush in implied volatility and uh the premium here in these 4-day options. So,

[18:56] I know I'll be taking advantage of getting on a little bit of long delta premiums, especially as we head into the next few weeks. I'm glad like Microsoft is one of those trades that I didn't catch early on. So, it is one of those

[19:09] that looks a a bit more attractive to get on long Delta after all of the >> Yeah, absolutely. >> Yeah. this. I'm going to do This is basically what I do in SPX. I'll just sell an iron

[19:22] condor for 200 bucks risking 300 bucks. Um but I'm going to do this in the kind of uh put the put my money where my mouth is in terms of the sector rotation. Maybe we see a balanced uh range in the

[19:36] >> Yeah. >> four-day cycle, this $200 could contract to $100 pretty quickly if we are Monday and we don't really change or move too much. So I'm going to put this

[19:50] >> Yeah. >> Um given the extended trading hours that futures the futures market offers, what you like a little bit better rather than using something like spy and using the

[20:03] be involved in the market be able to take advantage of that with the flexibility that the futures gives you? >> Yeah. Yeah, futures uh I think when you're trading the E-minis and Nasdaq directly, I think you have a lot of

[20:17] because they have nice trading hours, they're super liquid, and you don't have that's one of the the hardest things to deal with as uh an options trader with

[20:29] in the equity space just because you'll have these moves where like I guarantee you Micron tomorrow morning will probably be chopping around, you know, up or down 40 points from where it closed. So and that's just the the

[20:43] nature of the beast. So until we get uh extended hours for Micron, I think it's it's harder to manage positions cuz if you have a short put short put spread, you don't have the ability to manipulate it and move it

[20:58] around where in the E-minis you do because you can set alerts 20 points out or short option is. You can get hit with the alert, and then you can uh manage the position. So, I really think

[21:12] the futures do offer that. You also have different tax treatment if you are trading futures, and different leverage, too. You have span margin. So, I like the futures products a lot,

[21:24] but they're they're kind of simple in the sense of you can't It's harder to really defined way or a really

[21:36] tuned way, just because it's a a sector. It It's not a sector. It's a futures products within it. So, >> 100%. sure. >> 100%.

[21:50] Um any any questions in the YouTube chat that we can conquer? lot of Microsoft. A little bit of Palantir here and there.

[22:02] Um What has Palantir been up to, Mike? Palantir. I I know I know Michael Burry has had gotten that sell-off he was rolling in a little bit of those profits into Microsoft over here, but a little

[22:16] Palantir. Decent volatility there. >> Yeah, this is looks very similar to Microsoft. But yeah, this is another one where What's interesting about these products is Microsoft's a little bit later, but

[22:31] I have a ton of positions in Microsoft, but Palantir but Palantir 50-60% IV, so plenty of IV there, but Palantir's interesting because it's it just like Microsoft, you can do diagonal

[22:43] spreads, calendar spreads where you're long the cycle that's after the earnings announcement, which holds onto extrinsic value more, and then you can sell something in the July cycle that decays fully. So,

[22:56] you also have the ability to Let's say you do a bullish diagonal spread in can roll your short option into the premium and reduce your cost basis dramatically

[23:08] that way. So, I have a position on in Palantir, but underwater right now. Yeah, so I've got the 160, 180, 200 call crab trade and it

[23:22] is not looking good. So, I need a bailout from earnings basically. But, the nice thing here is I sold this this crab component the short crab component for 600 bucks and it's basically worthless. So, if Palantir continues to

[23:35] rally into this week, I can buy back this position, roll it out to the earning cycle and see if I can turn into a diagonal spread and continue to reduce cost basis there. But, I'll still need a pretty big move to the upside for this

[23:50] >> I see. Getting pretty creative with it there. I know SpaceX has been a little bit of a SpaceX has kind of came and went, you know, to be honest Mike. It's it it came and went and it almost feels like a one-hit wonder, but I'm I'm sure

[24:04] couple things on here that expires in about 54 days. But, it's been a little forward there Mike. >> Yeah, it hasn't hasn't done what we needed to do just yet.

[24:17] I bought a butterfly in here. I got I have the 160, 180, 200 butterfly and then I have a super bull super mega bull 572 days out. So, I I basically just sold a put here at the 125 strike to finance an out of

[24:33] the money call at 300. So, I took this premium and gave it up to buy a 300 premium and gave it up to buy a 300 strike call and this is just a scenario where like if we drop below 125, I still picked up 300 bucks for this trade I

[24:46] believe. Yeah, 350 bucks. So, no risk in the middle between 125 and 300, but SpaceX is one of those products where if and when it does rally

[24:59] you're likely going to see implied volatility expand. You're likely going to see call skew get infused into these far out of the money options. And that's perfect for the setup where you sell a put to buy the call. Cuz if

[25:12] call is going to explode in value. Your short put is still going to lose value money. And it's kind of this uh asymmetric risk profile, but you're collecting a credit to get into it. Uh so it's still a high probability trade

[25:26] 122. We're trading 30 points higher right now. So, I really like that trade for a really long-term position. Um but butterfly cuz I thought it was too cheap.

[25:40] butterfly. >> Oh, that was too cheap. You had to take forced. My hands were tied. >> [laughter] >> 100%. I know um MicroStrategy is still kind of following suit where Bitcoin has

[25:52] been at lately. I'm I'm starting to get a little bit uh interested in some long delta. Maybe not yet. It'll be interesting to see where little bit from here. I really want to be careful on catching that falling

[26:05] knife. I mean, MSTR has been a bloodbath to the downside. So, I don't know what price point uh Bitcoin investors are going to feel a little bit more confident to get on more long positions or just confident in the overall

[26:18] position. But, Bitcoin trading at about 59,290 right now. I know if Bitcoin were to slide to 50,000 somehow, I feel like that's just a discount that you can't Maybe we bottomed out before we get to 50,000. But, at least taking advantage

[26:33] be attractive. But, just thinking about catching that falling knife has been top of mind there. >> Yeah, I mean, this has been a a wild ride to the downside here. It's It's been cut in half from May levels. Um

[26:46] but yeah, the crazy thing is MicroStrategy strategy, they have so much Bitcoin that if they're if they're forced to sell at any point in time to like keep the lights on, I think that could be a really big liquidation event

[26:58] certain point people are going to start buying it and it's going to be just it's going to be another frenzy where people are talking about Bitcoin, trading >> Uh but we will see. We will see. >> 100%.

[27:11] already talked about, jobs report Thursday, you've got uh and that could move the markets, I think, a little bit. Uh or a lot of bit cuz Thursday could be one of those really light volume days.

[27:25] Uh Tesla Q2 deliveries, you have Nike earnings, Constellation Brands earnings, General Mills. Uh someone in the YouTube chat I I saw earnings this week. Technically, I'm already in a Nike leap

[27:39] long call at the 60 strike all the way out in Jan of 2028. This was just like this thing's at 10-year lows. I want to get long here. Um so, I'll be holding on to that and

[27:52] we'll see if that works out. If we get a move from 40 to 50 or 55, this could be like a thousand-dollar winner um just based on the current value and where it was trading at when Nike was last at 60. This was like a $1,500

[28:06] >> Okay. >> Um I'll be keeping an eye on that. I think Constellation Brands uh what is that? No. What is What is Constellation Brands? I

[28:20] Uh [clears throat] yes. >> STZ >> close. Stars >> Not Not exactly stars, [laughter] but STZ.

[28:32] >> Yeah. Uh but yeah, it's a $150 product, $9 expected move in either direction. They report Thurs- or sorry, they report Tuesday after the

[28:44] market closes. So, yeah, we'll we'll keep our eyes on this one, especially with a pretty high implied volatility in the 4-day cycle, nine points in either the 4-day cycle, nine points in either direction relative to 12 points in July

[28:56] relative to 14 in August. So, this is a really high distribution of premium in the 4-day cycle relative to August. So, yeah, yeah, uh come back to the show on Tuesday and

[29:09] there for sure. >> Kind of indirectly taking part in that >> Yeah. >> Yeah, yeah. Um but yeah, I think with that, we've been chatting for 25 minutes. E-minis

[29:24] have not moved at all, still up 30-ish, uh Nasdaq up 160-ish, down the Russell up as well. Uh and again, biggest things this week, I think, are going to be that jobs report on Thursday, for sure. And you

[29:39] the things that I like to do every week is just check out the SPX implied move. Uh so, over 4 days, 115 points. You can clearly see there's premium priced into Thursday due to that jobs report. So, uh all eyes on that. I think that will

[29:55] push and pull the interest rate probabilities, but we're looking at a 25 year. Uh and then, Constellation Brands earnings, Nike earnings. But again, this is a short week because we have the

[30:09] observed 4th of July holiday on Friday. So, the markets will be closed. Uh so, if you have any positions you want to manipulate or manage, you can do that up to July 2nd, which is Thursday. Uh just 4 days away from now, 3 days

[30:23] >> Yeah, looks like oil trying to take a little bit of a bid here. There, Mike, of these oil positions that we had had in as well. That one was a That one was but we got a little bit more time on it. Maybe we get a little bit of a relief

[30:37] pop there, and then we can go ahead and manage some other thing to look forward >> Yeah, absolutely. And and with crude oil, I'm just trading the micro crude. I have the straddle up at 76, right at the expected move, but I've picked up $500

[30:52] in premium already from this this this collection. So, sold the money, and then I rolled to a straddle at 76 into this continued sell-off. So, break even is at let's call it 71 and 1/2. So, we're really

[31:06] we're right there. But yeah, any kind of rally in crude or to where I will bring my break even it's easier to do now with the backwardation completely gone out of

[31:21] But yeah, to your point, definitely something I'll be looking at. And I'll probably move this before I leave on Wednesday because again, I don't want to have an 18-day cycle where crude could be flying around. I want to

[31:34] add more premium to this thing. So, look for that on probably probably But E, that is all the time we have for this Sunday evening. Any final thoughts before we we kick it

[31:48] >> No, I mean, I know it's going to be a shorter week this week. I'm hoping that Wednesday and Thursday is still pretty actionable given we might see a little 4-day weekend. A lot of the big money might be sitting on the sidelines until

[32:01] Wednesday is going to shape up pretty nice. >> Yeah, absolutely. And I am working this trade here for 400 bucks or sorry, 200 bucks the 7320 7310 short put spread, and then the 7550 7560 short

[32:19] call spread. I'll get filled on that probably tonight at some point, but I will post it to the tastytrade follow page. As always, you can check that out here. All these trades that we place are posted here on the tasty follow page.

[32:31] But yeah, E, I hope you have a good evening. Are you watching Game of Thrones? >> I'm not I'm not watching Game of into is actually Billions. So, kind of in that right now.

[32:46] get the Game of Thrones bite and I get hooked on that one, but I know I Looking forward to seeing you this week. What about you? What else what are you the Game of Thrones I know World Cup's kind of got my attention. What what's

[32:59] here? >> Yeah, I'm going to go eat dinner and yeah, I will be watching House of Dragon episode two. See if it's better than the good. I know Gabby watches it. So, we'll have

[33:13] to catch up with her tomorrow. But yeah, E have a great rest of your evening and everyone watching on the YouTube chat. We appreciate you and your contributions But yeah, join us tomorrow morning. Jamal and I will be here

[33:28] online bright and early in the studio. 7:30 central. But yeah, appreciate you 7:30 central. But yeah, appreciate you all and we'll see you tomorrow morning.

[34:04] show. It is a fantastic Friday, June 26th. We got the markets down just a little bit right now. E-mini's down 27, Nasdaq down 325, but we got a jam-packed

[34:16] day for you of content. My name is Mike Butler. I'm here with Jamal Chandler. And Jamal, I know we've we've had a crazy

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