Under 2.5 Goals Value Betting — Step-by-Step Guide & Transcript

[00:00] They say don't bet on the under. Well, I'm here to tell you that they are dead wrong I've got a value betting system based on under 2.5 goals Which has returned 84 units of profit across the last 90 days

[00:15] That is a ten point two percent yield and just to put that into perspective For you if you have a sort of standard investment account a bank account that you would expect to return four to five percent

[00:28] per year and the S&P 500 on a good year would return around ten percent on your Investment so this has returned ten point two across the last 90 days

[00:42] That is a kind of edge we are looking at here with this value betting system and in this video I'm gonna show you exactly how you can set it up with the exact same rules that I have which got those results across the Last 90 days and I'll also show you how you can set up automated alerts so that whenever a new game is added to bet 365

[01:01] You will get an alert right away so that you can jump on that game at Opening odds and if you're new here, I am Joe the founder developer designer marketer, etc at odd alerts calm

[01:17] I'm also going to show you as well the games that this system generates for this weekend It is the international break. So it'd be interesting to see what type of games we get See what the feed throws out and given the settings the good thing about value betting if you're new to it is that you don't

[01:33] Have to research the games that is all done for you through our probability model, which I will explain to you in the next section So let's talk about the market a little bit that we will be filtering for on this video under 2.5 goals

[01:50] Why is it so special? It's because it's not sexy. It is boring. It's like in business. You have those sort of But people do it and make a lot of money That is the case with under 2.5 goals and it comes down to a bias that we have when we're watching football

[02:07] We want goals we want action. We want excitement and If you were to see betting trends and data the data would be absolutely so clear that so many

[02:19] Go for goals go for BTTS. Yes, it's rare to see the average person bets on unders or BTTS But as the data here on this system and many other value betting systems suggest those markets are seriously

[02:37] So, how do we find these selections here's a quick look at the feed for this weekend How do these games get found consistently so that you can profit long term? We have our own

[02:52] Probability model our model looks at every fixture where odds are available or going to be available in the future and Calculates what we believe to be the true probability for under 2.5 goals

[03:05] We use so many data points data that would take you hours and hours to research yourself We put it together and process it through our model to get the values We rank every single game from 0 to 100 the likeliness of a game seeing under 2.5 goals and many many more

[03:23] Markets by the way and outcomes that you can check out on the website So we generate the rating and then we compare against the bookmakers and if our implied odds are shorter

[03:35] Than what is currently on offer that means we have found a value bet and some value bets may be marginal Some may be extraordinary and that is again what you can filter for and what I'm gonna show you in this video

[03:49] So enough talking for me I'm still gonna continue talking but it's gonna turn into a bit of a screencast Betting system for under 2.5 goals and this very system remember has delivered

[04:04] 84 units of profit in the last 90 days and we're gonna show you that as well on the profit calculator. Let's go So this is the settings page on the value bets app link in the description for this

[04:17] You will have a default strategy for all of the outcomes that we support through this value betting app You can create multiple strategies per market, which is very very good and very very useful

[04:33] First the probability range I've set mine between 38 and 100 That means I only want games where our model gives at least a 38% chance of under 2.5 goals Settings that we're gonna go through is that you can tweak and then instantly check out the profit

[04:50] You can instantly see what kind of games you would get as we will do on this video Next is the odds range 2.5 to 100. I'm filtering out anything below 2.5 because that's where the value starts to get interesting the higher the odds the more the bookmaker disagrees with our model

[05:07] The more potential value there is and the fewer bets you need to actually win for a profitable system This is one of the key filters if the value isn't at least 15% then it doesn't make the cut

[05:25] You can think of this as your quality threshold. You wouldn't buy a product. That's only 2% off You can also set an odds type and this is pretty critical and I've seen on the odd alerts discord that people are profiting from

[05:39] both opening and closing odds opening odds are the odds When they're added to odd alerts so the earliest available odds from that bookmaker opening so when they are listed on bet 3651x bet wherever and the closing odds are the

[05:57] Latest odds or the odds just before the game starts depending on when you are viewing the page It's the latest odds I use opening odds because they tend to be where the bookmakers are most

[06:10] Exposed before the market corrects and then there are extra filters as well lead predictability Exclude cups and friendlies you can get as granular as you want with this your system your rules

[06:26] So you've built your system, but does it actually work now for the fun part? Let's check out the profit calculator So here are the numbers for the strategy. We're gonna go on the profit tab and then select the strategy and click get

[06:41] 832 bets 314 won 37.7 percent strike rate now if somebody came to you and said I've got a great betting strategy I win 37 percent of the time you probably tell them to get lost but this is a key thing that people need to understand

[06:58] With value betting and any betting strategy that you don't always need to win your bets and that sounds crazy Doesn't it but if we're getting average odds of odds of three as we are in this system The proof is in the pudding the proof is absolutely right here in the profit from the last 90 days and beyond

[07:16] You don't need to win every bet and that if you take one thing from this betting video Or any betting video that I put out about value betting it should be that and the profit 84.88 units the yield as mentioned in the intro 10.2 percent and the average expected value per bet is

[07:36] 36.96 that is fantastic very juicy indeed that means on average that every single bet we place had about 37% edge over the bookmakers price and if you look at this graph, it is a very nice graph indeed

[07:50] Isn't it it's going in the right direction and it isn't a lucky streak. You can see the downs you can see the recovery That's what a real sustainable system looks like. It's not a straight line Nothing in betting ever is that's why we show you the max draw downs as well

[08:05] But as long as that trend is consistently upwards, which if you are getting real value If you just scroll down a little bit to break down the performance by day by league by odds

[08:19] Sunday is decent you could adjust this and just have it feed you games for Saturday and Sunday if you wanted If we look at the leagues we can see which leagues are performing best the same goes for the odds

[08:37] Which is a very useful thing to look at we can see that All odds ranges are positive, but there are some clear winners there as well And you can also have a look at the value percentage. So 20 plus percent value

[08:51] Brings in the majority of our profit so you could then use this data to adjust your settings accordingly Now onto one of the newest tools on odd alerts. It is the bankroll simulator. This is a pretty cool tool

[09:05] And it answers the question. What would my actual bankroll look like now? I've set a starting bankroll here of 1000 pounds one thousand dollars Flat staking at 1% of the initial bankroll so 10 pound per bet

[09:19] And this is simple disciplined and boring and you would you know once you find that there is something here that you've got a system Doing 1% you would maybe drift into Kelly staking, but we can see

[09:34] Following that system that the final bankroll was one thousand eight hundred and eight pounds, which is an eighty four point nine percent return on your starting bankroll in just 90 days net profit of

[09:47] 848 pounds now imagine you put that 1,000 pounds into a Saving account you'd probably have across the same period maybe a tenor or 15 pounds or something that is a difference

[10:00] In passive money versus smart money and again this chart like the one above tells the full story You can see the bankroll climbing you can see the dips the recoveries the overall trajectory is clear This system is working and for those of you that want to go deeper

[10:15] I know lots of you do you can download the CSV data from this page and you can download the full odds History and probability history from the downloads page. I'll link that in the description as well

[10:28] important data if you want to just get your hands dirty and Create your own systems in your own applications or however you want to do it feed the data into AI something like that

[10:40] We also have the audience API which allows you to access this programmatically live as well So yeah plenty of data for you to create your own systems Or you can use the front-end tool which makes it a little bit easier as you can see to create these systems

[10:56] So you've got the system you've paper traded you can see the charts are all going in the right direction Now is the time to turn on automated alerts. Let me show you how to do that

[11:08] So on alerts has automated alerts that notify you the moment a new game matches your strategy You set it up once and then you get a notification every time there is a new value bet in your feed

[11:22] No refreshing no checking the site every hour the bets come to you the value comes to you And I mentioned paper trading before that is essentially a bet tracking tracking your bets without spending real money

[11:36] It is so important to do that in any kind of strategy So you can test and monitor many at once and see what's working you can continue to tweak The profit calculator is a fantastic tool

[11:50] But I would always suggest tracking your bets whether you are placing real money or start with a small bankroll and then build it up Over time. Let me show you how you can track your bets instantly from this tool you can click track from any game in the feed and

[12:07] it will instantly populate the market the odds and you can create your own bankroll and Save all of the bets from a single system into there And as I said before it is crucial before you put real money down paper trade track 50 100 bets see the results for yourself

[12:23] Build confidence in the system then when you're ready, you know exactly what to expect So let's put it into action. They are the settings for the under 2.5 goals of value bet system

[12:37] And I'll show you them and then we will track them and see how they do over on X and discord across the weekend How much profit will we make so here is the feed for this weekend?

[12:51] We can see we're looking at the under 2.5 goals feed. I'm looking at the next 72 hours and we are filtering by Probability we have the Argentina Copa Argentina here at the top with a 56% value there and

[13:06] Qualifications Switzerland Faroe Islands we have Ecuador Super League women as well. We have the National League brain tree against Carlisle. We have butter fo go

[13:21] Corinthians what I'm gonna do is put the top 10 and it is sorted by probability Overlaid here on an image and I'm also gonna put it in the description and we will check that out on discord and X

[13:34] But remember it might be on a downturn it might lose the next 10 bets That is absolutely fine because value betting is a long-term strategy if you don't have patience discipline

[13:48] And the will to just see it through and paper trading helps you with that If you don't have those attributes, then just turn off the video now. You're not gonna succeed if you don't have patience

[14:01] So you now know how to build and develop and get fixtures automatically for under 2.5 Goals value betting and any other system really because you can just create it on the tool

[14:15] I've been running odd alerts for six years now and many users have been profiting During that whole time when value betting the value bets have delivered some incredible returns for users. I've seen

[14:29] 300 plus units of profit in a single month during the sort of best moments of value betting Bookmakers are just of course Some markets are better in certain months, but that is what the profitability and the data is all about

[14:46] solution that is just going to be It sort of just doesn't exist, you know, you've got to Stick to it and in the grand scheme of things

[15:01] For the return that you can get on your investment and the investment of a little bit of time as well It really is absolutely fantastic. So if you've got any questions, let me know in the comments

[15:15] If you found this video useful, please subscribe like and comment if you want to see me do another market Thanks for watching and I'll see you in the next one.