BITCOIN | You Are NOT Ready (Saylor and MicroStrategy Tested the Market)

[00:02] the movement that Bitcoin is making and will make in the coming days, are you? The market just panicked today, didn't it? With that news that Strategy made its first sale in history, right? Our dear Michael

[00:15] Saor, who has always been a fan, right? Ultra mega hard Bitcoin maximalist, never sold, that he would sell a Bitcoin, this and that, because today, right,

[00:27] his company sold 32 BTCs, right, that's very little compared to what he actually has in reserve, okay, folks? In fact, it is insignificant compared to the amount of bitcoins that MicroStrategy itself possesses. However, that goes against the

[00:42] philosophy he always preached, right? And the market simply didn't like that at all . Even abroad, folks, the talk is that this talk is that this sale was actually a test of how the

[00:54] market would react to a sale by MicroStrategy, one of the largest Bitcoin holders. And that just creates panic, right? The perfect excuse. Remember, folks, the market is governed by

[01:07] excuses and justifications. Often, price, supply, and demand are factors; she already wanted to make that move, but we have a justification, it looks much better. And the market was already falling, and this only intensified the decline. Notice

[01:23] that we are already in a somewhat more prolonged downward trend in BTC, especially on the Quross chart . We're trying to recreate here, you know, a head-shoulder, inverted shoulder, something along those lines. It simply failed

[01:36] miserably. And then we made this little flag that's confirming it extreme stress, so a short term, for example, on the 5-minute or 15-minute chart, we have

[01:49] these very strong downward movements , then we bounce back to the continuation of the trend, right? Right now , what's the trend, folks? Smaller timeframes indicate a downtrend; larger timeframes also indicate

[02:01] a downtrend, right? We ended up losing some important levels we observe, folks, we are reversing this main movement here . We can pull up a Fibonacci retracement here, for example, and I realize that

[02:14] we are exactly in a region of high demand. Personally, I'd like the price to react sooner, okay? Today's drop is already making the analysis a bit sour, at least in my opinion, because it opens up a lot of room for

[02:27] us to actually form a bottom in this movement, but for the next impulse wave to be one that will produce a descending top for continuation until it actually reverses. And if you've been following my analyses for a

[02:40] while, you know I wasn't that optimistic about this Whoa, we've hit the bottom, we'll never see Bitcoin at $60,000 again." I was reminded here on YouTube because I believe, you know, not only in the retest

[02:54] but even in the loss of the 60,000. Obviously, after this stretch, folks, losing 60,000 becomes less likely, right? The probability is slightly lower, but at least a retest is possible. Furthermore, Bitcoin marketing, folks, isn't

[03:08] just a small fluke; it never was in previous cycles and it's unlikely to be in this one. The price usually becomes fixed; it stays stagnant for a long time, right? That stagnation, nothing happens, nothing moves forward, the beginners, the impatient ones simply

[03:23] disappear from the market, and then Bitcoin starts to show an upward movement, right? I've shown this in previous analyses, but it doesn't hurt to show it again, like the last benchmark, guys, look at the period we

[03:36] were sideways, right? Furthermore, we experienced a sharp drop in movement, and then we lost the ground that had been created, right? We had a disagreement here, and that's from this movement, right? Perhaps the loss of 60,000, OK? But a retest, a

[03:51] more sideways period here, is already quite sufficient within my analysis, within my market theory. So, for now, folks, I'm more optimistic than pessimistic, believe it or not, right? I'm more optimistic about

[04:03] ? Why? Because the market is developing as planned. Nothing different, right? That old story about things being different now, about things exactly the same way. If everything is exactly the same as in other cycles,

[04:17] we need to act according to those other cycles, okay? Bitcoin itself, folks, is for now respecting the same structures it has used before. With change, it's true, with volatility, right? We have different volatilities, but

[04:31] very interesting pattern. So, for now, what am I analyzing, folks? I'm analyzing this POC region here in the 66,000 range, maybe even 65,000, which is where we had the highest trading volume for

[04:46] this price structure. Regarding the structures above, folks, for now, I needs to reverse in order to reach $0.000 , okay? If we reach 90,000, it's because we've reversed the trend. We're no longer in a market reaching 90,000,

[05:01] is delivering. Therefore, I disregard that pricing structure. I only analyze the existing structure, okay? So the retracement points are exactly where we are, but I wish it had stayed here above the

[05:15] 72500 region, okay? How did it go down there, everyone? Entry triggers here don't example, to trade with short positions, okay? It's a downward trend, looking for liquidity here, you have no position at all, okay? If you don't have any position in BTC,

[05:29] for trading on smaller timeframes. But where I'm really keeping an smaller timeframes. But where I'm really keeping an eye on is this region here, around 66,000-67,000, to see how the price will react here, okay everyone? Entry trigger, whether it's

[05:41] price exhaustion, price absorption, or whatever, okay? Regardless of what triggers the movement, whichever buyer is involved, it's important to keep an eye on it, okay? Primarily for long entries, whether for swing trading, which would be a medium-term strategy,

[05:55] scalping, or even DCA (Detailed Trading Amount), right? In the long term, this is an interesting region, okay? Also, folks, be careful about losing 60,000, with that narrative that, man, it won't drop to 52, it'll drop to 48, it'll drop to

[06:07] 40, 38. No, don't wait, folks, once you lose 60,000, start looking for opportunities to falling knife, you don't need to grab a limit order, plot it exactly at 58,

[06:19] no. That's not how it works, okay? You react to the market, but losing that region, folks, already validates the divergence of longer timeframes. This is where things start to get really interesting for medium to long-term entries, whether for a DCA, a

[06:33] position trade, a swing trade, a structured operation, it doesn't matter, okay? As long as there's a trigger, okay? So this business of predicting the price, oh, it'll go business of predicting the price, oh, it'll go to 52, it'll go to 48, 42, no, don't do

[06:45] out of the group, you don't need to catch the falling knife, but watch out for entry triggers here, especially below 60,000, okay? But now, folks, I'm keeping an eye on that 66-meter range for long-distance entries, okay? If it doesn't

[06:59] reach this level, then I'm keeping an eye on descending tops or even a search for liquidity above 75 for short entries, okay? This is my current trading strategy for our beloved Bitcoin, right? The

[07:11] quantitative aspect is still very weak, isn't it? very long going in. We had a bit of a clearance sale here on our beloved weaned bull calves, to see a bit more of a sell-off here to actually validate that

[07:25] this, you know, this region around 70,500 was a valid low, okay? For now, it's still pretty weak in my opinion, right? We can see in other still have a lot of accumulated liquidity in this region below 70, right?

[07:39] Walking towards that region of 65. For now, nothing shows me that the fall moving on to altcoins, we start to see some very right? Eto, which is sunk, is worthless. That's true, but for trading, it's worthwhile

[07:53] , altcoins, shaping, building a portfolio, that's a thing of the past, it's very 2020, okay? Now we need to update the scenarios. For example, 4 hours, folks, it's worth making a purchase here.

[08:07] Why? Because you have a smaller stop loss, you can use that as a basis. You can see that it's a divergence, right? We have losses in funds without significant continuity, so it's a technical stop, a valid stop in this movement. We have

[08:21] liquidity targets, at least up to this structure here at 100, okay? That already gives a risk- reward ratio of two to one, so it's already worth it. If you execute an entry like that, perhaps the breakout here in this liquidity will take us to almost three to one. So

[08:34] mathematical probability. This is how you speculate on the market. I'm passionate about ethereum, I can't even see Vital without my eyes watering. That's a different help you with that, okay? But if you want to speculate in the market with management

[08:50] and technique, here's an opportunity. Notice, we have a peak in volume, indicators. And even if you don't believe in indicators, and OK, I agree with you, many trading algorithms use these

[09:04] indicators, right, these divergences, these mathematical confluences to favorable return from the tax authorities here, okay? So we realize that the price structure is losing its bottom without much continuity, causing divergences and

[09:18] excess volume. This provides an opportunity for entry, okay? So, you can see that today the eternal is stronger than BTC itself, right? While BTC is experiencing a decline without significant recoveries, Ethereum is already showing a bit more

[09:31] strength precisely in this market speculation. The only way for you to perform the operation at this exact moment is to open it, okay ? Ethereum's open price is still very weak, but with upward-trending resources on the 5-

[09:45] minute chart, for example, you can already validate an entry since we have the recovery of the open price. So, you see, they're always confluences, right? it has a decent risk-reward ratio, great, let's refine this analysis, let's

[09:58] refine this study within Ethereum, where to go from here ? For quantitative filters. This would basically be the blockchain, right? On- chain data within the futures market. And here I realize that, oops, I have, look, a

[10:11] red flag, right, a little red flag for an entry that is lower, but I have other interesting flags, such as a drop, right, a decrease in LSR. I had a much more interesting and relevant climax here

[10:24] in Etheré. So, if we have price rebounds or a recovery in the Open Interchange, then I can validate my entry. I refined my analysis, I did a good risk-reward analysis, and I validated it on shorter timeframes based on other

[10:36] information that I can't see through the price, thus increasing my probability of success. So Ethereum is stronger right now, other altcoins are stronger too, like

[10:48] engulfing pattern that's very similar to Ethereum, and here's a caveat, okay? Whenever you see similar graphic patterns, you choose one or the other. For example, Etheréum and Solana, folks,

[11:01] notice how similar they are, their movements are very confluent, they are very correlated. Therefore, it's not worth it for me to take on one operation in ethereal and another in Solana. Why? Because if Ethereum stops me,

[11:17] Solana will probably stop me too, right? We maintain a pricing structure until it becomes invalid. Therefore, I need to choose between Solana and Ethereo. And then it depends confluences, it's up to the trader to decide, okay? But whenever you see

[11:31] similar patterns, go into one or the other, never both, because basically you're stopped, Etheréo will probably be stopped as well . Obviously, if Solana goes up, Ethereo will probably go up too, but with proper management, it's not

[11:46] worth acquiring both. We're also noticing other altcoins here rising very strongly, right? Remember, you're not going to take the top spot from me, okay? Expect a setback for entry. But particularly, with this news from Micro Strategy,

[11:58] I'm starting to feel a little more optimistic about the market, right? I'm the kind of trader who does n't like to buy highs for buy lows for short positions, okay? I'm always kind of a contrarian, but

[12:12] respecting a market theory, a thesis—this thesis often takes time, every day because I'll be saying the same thing every single day. There's trading, there's trading in the 5-minute timeframe, but I can't record a video and post it for you to

[12:25] actually have something more relevant. And marketing is boring. Barket takes a long time, folks. That's how it works. But BTC is n't going to disappear, right? Bitcoin won't end because of this or that. I personally have seen Bitcoin die

[12:40] tens of thousands of times. It's always the same story. Those who have patience, who plant at the right time, who operate correctly, who realize profits when they should , cycle after cycle, and capital always increases, as long as

[12:54] you have good management and never fall into either FOMO or FOE. If you like and subscribe to the channel. Thank you very much. It cost.