Bitcoin: The Week of the Final Trap (See the Confluences)

[00:02] extremely treacherous for the bit. As you can see, on the 4- hour timeframe, the price is moving upwards, producing higher highs. One of the ascending trends, technically speaking, we are in an

[00:18] 4-hour chart structure, but notice that we are breaking through the top without much continuity, and we are even making this pullback movement here, which is a deeper pullback, a channel of

[00:32] deep corrections, folks. We 're right at the peak of a shock here, right, of a structural breakdown, losing this valuable foundation here. Notice that we are at the limit, but notice that we already have

[00:46] pivot. We have a small pivot point underneath. So, even though we haven't invalidated this bottom here, we are seeing a bearish pivot. Furthermore, this pullback that we're seeing right now, folks, it has

[00:59] low volume. That's because it's a weekend pullback, okay? In addition to this analysis, which shows a certain weakness in this structure, in this upward trend, we have our beloved Open Inabando,

[01:14] but collapsing in an upward movement that is not at all bullish. Despite it being the weekend, which typically sees upward price movements, these movements need to be accompanied by an increase in pin. Inter. Look, it makes absolutely no sense for me to have an

[01:29] upward trend, for me to believe in an upward trend, and then simply not leverage it. Quite the contrary, I am deleveraging the futures market. Therefore, in my opinion, we are characterizing a much

[01:42] higher probability of marking a descending top in this movement. So, analyzing only this small leg here, you can see that we have a slight downward trend, and the most likely scenario now is a descending peak coupled with low liquidity and

[01:55] deleveraging in the crop market. We had a mini liquidation climax, and notice the heat map; we have a lot of liquidity going down as well, right? It's upward liquidity, a lot of resistance here in the

[02:08] 66,000-67,000 region, okay? So, it's unlikely that this leg, this tall structure, would pass through this region, okay? which would be an excellent point to take profits, an excellent point even for

[02:21] short entries, but we also have a lot of liquidity on the downside. So, in my personal opinion, we're much more focused on distribution right now, okay? Profit-taking or even entering into

[02:33] a continuation of that movement. It's still early; tonight futures market, we might get a better idea then, but at this moment, in my analysis, we're more likely to see a downward movement, a

[02:48] a recovery from this trend, okay? To access liquidity above 67,000. Here, folks, I've marked a region, a target point where we're likely to see demand coming in

[03:02] . And why this region? Firstly, we have retests, right? I am the loss of the minimum of these regions. Here, there's a lot of focus on stop-loss orders and many orders being advertised. We have a sale here for this region

[03:16] of 61,000. But I want to point out to you all this candlestick structure here, which is quite interesting. For those who study SMC (Standardized Curves), you often don't smaller timeframes to perform a more

[03:30] very high absorption rate in this small area. Then we had an engulfing, an engulfing, an engulfing again. This pattern here, where we're engulfing, absorbing, engulfing, and engulfing movements from one candle to the

[03:43] next, we're kind of reversing the trend. Guys, this region here, this zone, this configuration, this canvas pattern, indicates, in shorter timeframes, a POI, a point of interest, a frantic

[03:57] price battle. So how do I know if it's a frantic fight? We simply come here, we create a shock to one side, then a shock to the other. So we have a change, a reversal that didn't materialize, showing that this region

[04:11] absorbing something, causing a downward shock, recover and continue the upward movement. This is a point of interest. Also note that it's exactly that region of 60,000, a

[04:24] psychological number, right? That number is also achievable. We had retests on that. So this little structure, folks, ends up catching my attention the most, right? We have liquidity points before that, bottom losses

[04:38] could also be a price base, but looking at an upward movement, folks, this region here, my main region, is where I would actually like to see a stronger buying presence

[04:52] , okay? movements. Before that, folks, we need to be a little more cautious, but at this moment I still see a descending top, a continuation of the downtrend, or rather

[05:05] a recovery at this point, as the most likely scenario, okay? For longer timeframes, we remain within this structure, which is basically an accumulation of the also trying to accumulate points where we lose ground without much

[05:18] continuity, but this type of scenario , folks, it can last for a long time. So, those who are anxious, right, in absolute terms, there's no need to rush, right? In the last BeMark, we did exactly the same

[05:34] configuration. It keeps losing ground, it loses funds without much continuity, but it drags on for a long time, okay? Up until the recovery, let's say starting here in January 2023, we had a recovery. We can say that this

[05:47] was the very beginning of Bomark. You can see that it don't need to have that absurd amount of smoke, okay? I still consider the probability of us

[05:59] repeat, I've been saying this in expecting big drops, right? Those massive drops that will break through 40,000 , 50,000 and down, folks, be very careful, okay? Be very careful with that

[06:14] trip; I'll only buy it if the price drops below 45,000 or 50,000, okay? Maybe you can stay out of it. It 's not impossible, it's not improbable that we'll see a move down 57, but maybe it'll hit 55, 53,000,

[06:30] okay? Or even 56, and that already provides absorption. So, be very careful. The region we're in, folks, is already a bottom-up area for the market. Keep that in mind, okay? There's no need to give up the win, as I've shown, we still

[06:44] tend to have a lot of time ahead of us, okay? So, the "ai" here is simply, "ah, there's technical standpoint, I have a reason to believe it, unless we had a really big flush, okay? A single candle stopping downwards, like we had during the

[06:58] COVID era. Then we can think about being more aggressive, okay? But aside from that, within the structures here, folks, there's no need to rush, right? There's no need to rush, but start setting up your positions now. Don't

[07:10] wait for the apocalypse to happen before you actually set up your trading, holding, position, or swing trading positions. OK? This week, folks, we're also seeing a distribution, or rather, the beginning of a

[07:24] distribution by the miners. I've already shown this graph here before. Notice that before we have a recovery, right, an upward movement, we normally have a peak, right, of

[07:37] they then distribute in the movements, okay? This type of movement is very common, isn't it? This is portfolio management, a cash strategy that large mining companies use, okay? And this starts to show that we had

[07:50] a peak in accumulation, after that we even had a downward climax, and now we've also had a new climax of accumulation here on the part of the miners, and we're seeing the distribution, okay? So this also

[08:02] contributes, right, to the fact that we're seeing a drop in open prices, a technical scenario that's not so favorable for Bitcoin's rise. And on top of all that, because bad luck never comes alone, as we say here in the South, folks, we

[08:14] also have an extremely volatile week in terms of economic data, okay? On Wednesday we'll have Super Wednesday with the press conference, which is no longer hosted by Gero Mipau, right? So, personally, I

[08:28] enjoyed watching Uncle Jerry talk. And on Thursday we have PCE, we factors contributing to volatility. Just in case we get a little surprise with the interest rate, you know? This could end up bothering the market.

[08:44] And besides that, folks, we also have earnings reports and results from large companies, for example, on Wednesday we have major companies in the AI ​​market, right? Currently, practically every AI company, like

[08:57] Microsoft, is releasing its earnings reports, its results, and its own targets. And this could end up affecting the markets a lot, bringing a lot of volatility. And that's the thing, even though we're not so closely aligned with the S&P NASDA, you

[09:12] can't ignore that a deeper correction in the S&P 500, a deeper correction in the NASDA could spill over here, at least in the short term, okay? No Bitcoin. So we might end up seeing prolonged intensity, as well as

[09:24] joy, a celebration here at SP 500, which is probably, believe that this little gym is well stretched out, right? So, in my opinion, the most sensible thing to do would be

[09:38] a correction. This pricing pattern here is 5050, folks. Okay, this move is pretty indecisive , but since it's already stretched out so far, it doesn't make sense. If I were wouldn't be allocating any more positions here in the SP500, or I'd be quiet,

[09:55] even be distributing, okay? I would be realizing profits from this transaction; I wouldn't be exposed. So, this week, especially on very intense market activity, which could end up intensifying the movement of

[10:09] BTC, right? I believe that BTC has already defined itself today, okay? In my opinion, a continuation of the fall, with a possible target in the 60,000-51,000 region possible target in the 60,000-51,000 region , right? Well, as far as

[10:24] American companies are concerned, things are kind of slow, everything's kind of calm. I would just pay special attention to A-list companies, like Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft; they could end up experiencing quite an interesting fluctuation. I'm keeping a close

[10:38] because it's starting to show some signs of exhaustion, isn't it? Lots of absorption here at 4 hours. This absorption, you know, is what sellers try to push down, and the market keeps pushing it upwards. This isn't exactly an

[10:53] careful with this. This doesn't exactly represent an increase in demand, but it does mean that sellers are already experiencing weakness in this market. And if there's a shortage of sellers in the market, any additional demand will

[11:06] push the price up, okay? So the risk-reward ratio of an operation here, folks, is much more favorable. I 'm not saying it's going to go back up to 130,000, not at all, but the pullbacks are quite healthy in this movement. And look, it's

[11:19] already a foundation. We already have a solid foundation here for those who like pretty big sinking of SpaceX. So the risk-reward ratio is worthwhile here, right? I'd be particularly interested in , which is probably where

[11:33] we'll only see more interesting movement in SpaceX after the futures markets open tonight between 5 and 7 pm, okay? Or would it be here, in the rupture of this 114 region, okay? Perhaps it would be a

[11:47] more interesting risk-reward option, right? We could have a one-to-one situation here, or even two- right? Obviously, you have to respect this, you have to break through this consumption is needed. For those who already have a little more experience, it's possible to

[11:59] refine some input here, but I realize that for now we're still stuck in this weekend rut, but SpaceX is an asset that catches my SpaceX is an asset that catches my attention a little more. For

[12:12] our beloved metals, we have oil here making a corrective move. oil, am I? I confess to you that I 'm not much of an oil trader, but analyzing it technically, folks, we're more likely to see an

[12:25] different matter altogether. However, oil is one of those assets where it's difficult to speculate on its technical aspects, right? He's very sensitive to news, to noise, and that's a little outside my area of ​​expertise, okay? So I prefer to stay a

[12:39] really absurd, very pronounced move, okay? Aside from that, I, as a ghost investor, don't usually trade much in our beloved oil, okay? I've been talking about gold for quite some time now, okay? It's worth building a position in gold, right? Gold is an asset

[12:53] that's already heavily discounted, and it's in a very interesting position within its own asset base. It's not worth having exposure to gold, but it's an operation, it's structured, it stop it out haphazardly. So it could be a position trade, a swing trade, or a

[13:07] longer-term operation. If you're trading here and placing a stop-loss below 3900, for example, it's not as worthwhile anymore. So this is for the capital you allocate for the medium to long term, okay? Gold isn't the kind of

[13:19] capital you're going to profit from next week. Hopefully it will happen, but it's not very likely, right? And in our altcoins, folks, we have some specific opportunities, okay? For example, here we have

[13:31] Zena, okay? It's a coin I'm keeping an eye on because, on the 4-hour chart, we have . But here I want to draw your attention, everyone: be very careful with altcoin trading, okay? No matter what they see, they should look at the logic. We had

[13:47] an upward movement, we had a downward movement. This recording was preceded by low volume, okay? So, we've had a closing of inefficiencies here; we're showing losses of funds without significant opportunities in shorter timeframes. And here

[13:59] we begin to see an increase in volume. In addition to that, we have some triggers, such as this well-formed 1 2 3 trigger, which has yes, I can do it here, okay? I'm considering placing a long stop entry below that

[14:13] low, because my stop loss ends up being cheap. And notice that even for a viable, okay? So I would be risking 2% here to earn more or less 2%. So, all good. One possibility

[14:25] we could convert to two-to- one, three-to-one, why not? Trading strategies are a topic for another video. However, guys, altcoins remain very weak, okay? With low trading volume, right? If I pull it up

[14:40] to 5 minutes, we can see a lot of spaced-out candles here. This is due to a lack of liquidity in the market, okay? This here is... the price is moving more due to algorithms, due to liquidity makers, okay? Rather than through

[14:54] little careful. Can we speculate on this to capitalize on potential market activity along with the frequency of the boats? From the. But for this type of investment, you need to start with a smaller amount of capital, okay? You need to be less

[15:07] aggressive. This type of trading isn't you need to keep in mind, folks. Outcoins. Right now you can speculate, there's nothing wrong with that, but it's short-term speculation,

[15:20] it's that little bit of money you need to buy your soda for the weekend, your beer for the weekend, and nothing more. This isn't capital for you to actually make a lot of money, okay? We're not in that situation right now . No matter how many

[15:33] always keep this in mind, folks. The current market climate isn't favorable enough for you to be aggressive. There's always a pump and dump or something going on, okay? That's normal. But then the way you're going to perform these

[15:46] operations depends. So let's keep an eye on these developments. Remember that Bitcoin, in my opinion, is more likely to form a downward trend than anything else, okay? Unless

[15:58] we have a massive influx of opinions at 7 PM, then for me we're more focused on distribution than anything else . And on Wednesday, yes, we're going to have some interesting movement and volatility, whether it's due to the

[16:10] data, you know, from Super Wednesday, right, US interest rates and everything else, as well as the release of earnings reports from AI companies. And

[16:22] this could end up affecting our beloved BTC. And if you enjoyed a like and subscribe to the channel. Thank you so much for watching.