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Why Venture Capital is a game of outliers - Marc Andreessen

Published Jan 16, 2026 Transcribed Jul 14, 2026 A a16z
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Venture Capital: Extreme Outliers Only

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The shocking statistic that 15 companies generate 97% of VC returns creates a compelling, shareable insight into the ruthless nature of startup investing.

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If you're looking for the extreme outlier, the venture capital business is 100% a game of outliers. It's extreme exceptions on the order of 4,000 venture fundable companies a year that want to raise venture capital. About 200 of those will get funded by what's considered a top tier VC. Um about 15 of those will someday get to $100 million in revenue. And those 15 from that year uh will generate something on the order of 97% of all

the returns for the entire category of venture capital in that year. So venture capital is such an extreme feast or famine business. You're either in one of the 15 or you're not. The big thing the intruder is looking for, no matter you know which sort of particular kind of criteria we talk about, they all have a characteristic

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