I Beat 95% of Traders by Flipping a Coin
42sThe counterintuitive premise of making money by random trading challenges common trading wisdom and sparks curiosity.
▶ Play ClipAI Summary
This video is the fifth update on a long-term cryptocurrency futures trading experiment where positions are opened entirely at random—coin selection and trade direction (long/short) are determined by chance. The creator started with a $100 deposit and has been following strict risk management rules to test whether random trading can be profitable.
Chapters
[00:03]
Experiment Overview
The experiment involves opening positions at random, based on the idea that 95% of traders lose money, so random selection might be as good as deliberate analysis.
[00:17]
Random Selection Process
A coin is randomly selected from a list, and a coin flip determines whether to open a Long (tails) or Short (heads) position.
[00:46]
Trading Rules
Rules include: 1% of the amount per trade with 10x leverage, only one trade per day, max 10 open positions, elimination at -300% and -600%, averaging at -900%, and take profit always at 50%.
[01:16]
Experiment Progress
After 168 days, 124 positions were opened, with 9 still open and 115 closed. The initial $100 deposit has grown to nearly $133, a 33% profit.
[01:47]
Recent Drawdown
The profit dropped to $103 due to bad news on Binance but recovered and grew slightly. The creator shares updates in a Telegram group.
[02:00]
Risk Management
The 1% position sizing rule prevents liquidation, though profits are small. The creator plans to increase position size as the balance grows (e.g., at $150, use $1.50 per trade).
[02:40]
Live Trade Example
The creator demonstrates opening a new position: randomly selects a coin, flips a coin (got heads → Short), sets $10 with 10x leverage, and calculates take profit at 50%.
[04:20]
Reflection and Results
The creator jokes about being in the top 10% of profitable traders. The $33 profit is small in absolute terms but impressive in percentage. The process takes about one minute per day.
The experiment shows that random trading with strict risk management can yield modest profits, at least in this short period. The creator remains cautious, acknowledging the small sample size and the possibility of future losses.
Mentioned in this Video
Tutorial Checklist
Study Flashcards (7)
What is the core idea behind the random trading experiment?
easy
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What is the core idea behind the random trading experiment?
easy
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Since 95% of traders lose money, random selection might be as good as deliberate analysis.
00:17
What are the main trading rules in the experiment?
medium
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What are the main trading rules in the experiment?
medium
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1% of the amount per trade with 10x leverage, one trade per day, max 10 open positions, elimination at -300% and -600%, averaging at -900%, and take profit at 50%.
00:46
How many days have passed and how many positions were opened?
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How many days have passed and how many positions were opened?
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168 days, 124 positions opened.
01:16
What was the initial deposit and current balance?
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What was the initial deposit and current balance?
easy
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Initial deposit was $100, current balance is nearly $133.
01:33
What happened to the profit recently?
medium
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What happened to the profit recently?
medium
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It dropped to $103 due to bad news on Binance but recovered and grew slightly.
01:47
How does the creator plan to scale position sizes?
medium
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How does the creator plan to scale position sizes?
medium
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At $150, use $1.50 per trade; at $200, use $2, and so on, aiming for $1000 and $10,000.
02:13
What does the creator do if the randomly selected coin is not traded against USDT?
easy
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What does the creator do if the randomly selected coin is not traded against USDT?
easy
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He re-selects the coin.
02:56
💡 Key Takeaways
💡
Randomness as a Strategy
Challenges the assumption that analysis is necessary for trading success.
00:17
🔧
Strict Risk Management
Demonstrates how disciplined position sizing can protect capital even with random entries.
00:46
📊
33% Profit in 168 Days
Provides a data point on the potential of random trading with strict rules.
01:33
⚖️
Scaling Plan
Shows a systematic approach to increasing position sizes as the account grows.
02:13Full Transcript
[00:03] Invest and in this video I will summarize my experiment on futures which I started almost six months ago for those who turned on this video for the first time. I will briefly tell you the essence of the experiment, it consists of
[00:17] opening a position at random because of one, so to speak, rule which states that somewhere 95 percent of all traders lose their money and only 10 earn, so I thought since they deliberately open their positions, they look
[00:32] there on the chart, draw some Fibonacci lines or something else, I will randomly select a coin from the list, then flip a coin, if tails, then I open a position in Long. And if heads, then accordingly, opening in Short. There
[00:46] are also other rules that I adhere to, you can now see on the screen. The first is a deal for one percent of the amount with a tenth leverage. The second is only one deal. On day 3, no more than ten open positions. The fourth is elimination by -300 percent and the
[01:02] positions. The fourth is elimination by -300 percent and the second by -600 percent, but here I want to add that I recently had And the third is averaging on -900 percent is a gift for my ill-fated coin and 5 Take profit I will always leave at 50
[01:16] percent profit now as for the course of my experiment from the very beginning of the course of my experiment from the very beginning of the experiment 168 days have passed 124 positions were opened now 9 open positions and 115 closed positions my
[01:33] initial deposit at the beginning of the experiment was exactly 100 dollars and at the moment almost 133 dollars that is managed to earn 33 dollars In other words, this is 33 percent profit is true Recently my PN dropped to 103
[01:47] dollars due to bad news on Binance but then everything returned back even grew a little about this By the way I wrote in the group in Telegram I started the experiment with 100 dollars because I don’t mind losing them
[02:00] you don’t know what can happen next but my rule of entering a position at one percent of the amount still strongly warns me against liquidation Well and the profit accordingly is very small and in the previous video I already said that
[02:13] when I step over the threshold of 150 dollars I will start opening positions at one percent of this amount that is one and a half dollar and not one Well, Take profit will dollar and not one Well, Take profit will no longer be 50 cents but 75 cents And
[02:27] when there are 200 dollars, I will start from this amount and so on, start from this amount and so on, then I will reach 1000, then 10 thousand Well, this is of course theory in practice, we will see
[02:40] Today I have one place to open a new position So let me open a new one right now So I go to the list of coins, shuffle them a little, then a little sheet up and down and where the mouse becomes
[02:56] Thuja and I will select only on the condition that the coin is traded qsd otherwise I will have to coin is traded qsd otherwise I will have to re-select So we got this re-select So we got this coin then we need to flip a coin, we
[03:14] flip a coin and we got Heads Okay, let's go back and we got Heads Okay, let's go back to Binance, I write the purchase amount, I write the amount with leverage, I wrote 10 dollars, the order is
[03:28] always market and open Short Now we need to immediately calculate the price in the calculator where the take profit will be,
[03:49] profit 50 percent, click calculate, copy this click calculate, copy this price
[04:08] is here, we confirm everything at the end of this video. I would also like to say that I myself did not expect that it would be possible to
[04:20] yourself. I'm probably one of the 10 percent who manage to earn money, but I'm joking, who manage to earn money, but I'm joking, of course. Although who knows, here with me, of course, everything is fair, by the way, I post all transactions in my
[04:34] Telegram group every day, or rather, when there is space for a purchase, the link to the group will be in the description under the video. $33 is, of course, a small $33 is, of course, a small amount, nothing to brag about, but in
[04:47] percentage terms, I think this is an excellent result for this kind of experiment. Moreover, when opening a new position, I spend Well, somewhere around one minute a day. It's a bit true, like a couple of videos on TikTok, she
[05:00] could already use this money to drink beer with the guys, or better yet, invite some girl to a cafe, maybe I'll get lucky. Well, that's all for me today. Subscribe to the channel to follow the progress of the experiment. Also, like
[05:15] this video if you haven't already, in the description there will be a link to the Crypto exchange on which I I'm trading, follow them and register, and in the description there will be links to my social networks. Thank you all for watching. Good
[05:28] social networks. Thank you all for watching. Good luck to everyone for now.
