Bitcoin's Reaction to Iran Conflict — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:01] officially entered into war with Iran, but today we are not here to talk about this conflict, but about how this is affecting the cryptocurrency market, gold, and the stock market right now. Because while everyone is

[00:14] worried about what's happening, oil is rising sharply, stock markets are falling, gold is soaring, and Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrencies seem unaffected and remain strong. What is happening right now

[00:26] in the Middle East has a direct effect on the markets and the future in the coming weeks, and only those who understand it will be able to prepare only weekly show you need to stay up-to-date with the market, know what to

[00:40] advantage of before other investors. So if you don't want to miss it week after week, subscribe now, we're starting.

[00:54] exactly what's happening at the geopolitical level, began on February 28th, when the United States and Israel made the decision to attack Iran at various specific points, mainly targeting the country's leadership, its

[01:10] nuclear programs, and with the objective of preventing them from continuing to develop all their nuclear weapons. And obviously Iran did not remain idle at that moment and responded that same day by attacking bases, especially those of the

[01:23] United States, both in Israel and in different areas of the Gulf, and even in countries like the United Arab Emirates that were not involved in the conflict. today, March 3rd, at the time of recording this video, and even yesterday, the

[01:39] recording this video, and even yesterday, the bombings continue and it seems that this conflict has no end in sight. In fact, President Donald press conferences that he has no problem stretching all this out for

[01:53] four or five weeks, and what he is showing is his intention not to back down . And a very important point that is probably the one that most directly affects the entire economy and therefore the stock markets or

[02:09] the cryptocurrency sector is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Because? because approximately 20% of all the world's oil passes through there every day.

[02:21] And all of this, which Eric is going to explain in detail now, not only affects oil, but it can affect the entire economy, even causing inflation and other events that we're going to see now,

[02:34] right, Eric? Indeed, as you say, one of the most key points for as everyone is concerned because in the end nobody wants deaths on reality is that what affects the markets is that the Strait of Hormuz

[02:49] currently handles 20% of the global oil supply . And this means that if they shut it down as has happened, and in fact what is happening is that several Gulf countries are also halting

[03:01] oil production by some of the is doing it, Qatar is doing it, they have already done it with a couple of oil companies, and what this affects is that obviously, with much less oil available

[03:15] to the rest of the world, the current price of oil is rising. This is obviously the law of supply and demand, and that is why the price of oil is expected to reach prices of even $. If you

[03:27] look closely, right with the start of the war and with all this closure of the oil prices, reaching almost $80. I don't know the exact price right now, but what this does to the rise in oil prices is directly impact

[03:41] global inflation. And let's remember that when controlled through interest rates and other international mechanisms that allow the economy to contract a little more

[03:55] , that is, to not expand so much. And in fact, what we have also been able to see is how the dollar has strengthened just like gold. And this is because it is a safe haven asset, a refuge where people

[04:07] in times of uncertainty are trying to largely invest in trying to largely invest in that type of asset. shelter. that until that strait is opened—and in fact, China is already putting pressure on them to

[04:20] open it because a large part of all the oil that reaches China comes from that strait—they are putting pressure on them to de-escalate the BR and so that they can also be supplied, that is, have

[04:34] more capacity to receive all that oil that is being produced in the Gulf. That said, it is also important to consider what to consider what Bitcoin has specifically done after or during

[04:46] This chart is quite interesting to see because every time there has been a military conflict, what has happened in the short term during the days of war is that Bitcoin has had

[04:59] a price increase. And that's exactly what we 've experienced, as Kevin was just saying Bitcoin seemed to be in freefall and suddenly it has rebounded. What's largely happening right now is that people are ultimately looking for

[05:13] refuge in an asset that has less control, and obviously Bitcoin can be one of those assets. When, for example, the Iran occurred, the price rose from 7000 to 9300 in 2020. When there was the invasion

[05:29] of Russia and Ukraine, or the war between Russia and Ukraine, there was also a sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin. It also happened with the conflict we experienced in 2023 between Israel and Japan, and also with the escalation between Iran and Israel, and it is what

[05:43] is happening now in 2025, it was what happened in June and it is exactly what is happening right now in the market, what we have seen. Obviously, this doesn't mean it's going to go up from here, right? We, in

[05:55] fact, always talk about how we believe there may still be another downward push to see that definitive bottom from where we can start to raise the price of Bitcoin. But what is clear is that in these

[06:09] uncertain times, we can see in the short term that Bitcoin can be a safe haven asset for some kind of strategy. Yeah? And now shows the production or how much electricity is needed to mine one Bitcoin in

[06:24] each country of the world. We cannot see, for example, that in the United States, mining a Bitcoin costs $17,000. In Canada, 84,000. Hey, let's see if we have 162,000 in Spain, 300,000 in Italy. And this obviously depends on the cost of

[06:38] energy in each country. And something we must not overlook is that Iran is the fifth largest Bitcoin miner in the world and has between 4 and 5% of the global hash rate. What's happening? If we look at how much it costs to produce a

[06:52] 's right here. I'm going to make it a little bigger. It costs around to mine one Bitcoin right now. What are the reasons? Firstly, because it is but obviously because they are paying in their local currency, which, as we saw in a

[07:08] video a few weeks ago, the price of the global currency, the RAT, is plummeting, and that obviously makes energy production in that country much cheaper. In other words, for every Bitcoin they're looking at with energy

[07:22] in that country, which is currently experiencing tremendous instability, they can sell current price, which is around 65,000-70,000. That is, they have a margin of practically 40-50 times more than the

[07:37] cost of each Bitcoin. And what are Iran and all its mining companies doing right now? He sold it, but he's been doing so for quite a few months now, not needs to turn it into money, basically to be able to create that whole

[07:51] system that will help him defend himself against this war that is happening. Okay? Just so you know , there have been 7,800,000 in Iranian crypto transactions , that is, from Iran alone in 2025,

[08:04] and that's selling pressure, which is huge. Yes. So what this create significant downward pressure on the price right now, even though we've part, when

[08:17] we see that the local currency in our country keeps depreciating, and we see that there's a system where we can withdraw Bitcoin, which initially does n't devalue as much as React, and secondly, if

[08:30] all the banks, or financial institutions in that country, were to close, to access your capital would be severed. Obviously, nobody likes that, and that's why they go looking for more decentralized assets

[08:43] that don't depend directly on a bank closing those doors. So it's an important thing to keep in mind, and the reality is that, as we always say, Victor is the only asset that has no owner, no headquarters, and that,

[08:55] fact, as it was created, cannot be completely agree with all of this, and now let's look specifically at where we short term, because we've been seeing, as Eric has explained, that

[09:09] obviously Bitcoin as an asset in the long term makes perfect sense , that there has never been a war that has stopped it, and that right now, as a philosophy or as an asset, it makes a lot of sense

[09:22] because whatever happens in any country, if you have your Bitcoin safely stored away, nobody will ever be able to take it from you. But we also need to understand where we

[09:38] of what is happening at any given time at the macroeconomic, geopolitical, or conflict levels. Because as we've been saying in several videos before, in several cryptocurrencies a day, and in fact exactly what

[09:52] we discussed in the last one has happened, we've had that Bitcoin surge from that Bitcoin surge from around 60,000 to yesterday reaching around 60,000 to yesterday reaching 70,000 Bitcoin. This is a very

[10:05] critical point. Because? Because if we look at it on a daily scale, we can see how on a daily scale, we can see how we are clearing up the last high points we left recently. So with these 70,000 we just cleared that last

[10:19] high point and it's literally a pretty dangerous area. In fact, this resistance here is a rather dangerous area where we believe anything can happen , but we also believe a rebound could come to

[10:33] we also believe a rebound could come to as Eric said, we'll go to the lower part of the cycle where we see those floors close to 50,000. We'll see what happens. Why do we think this too?

[10:49] not only because of this short term, but because it is surprising how well this cycle is matching the previous cycle. And look at it on a weekly scale. We can see how in the previous cycle we first had a first peak

[11:04] close to $5,000, that second peak and then the fall. this cycle. We had that first peak and then this second peak before

[11:17] the fall. And then, during the fall, what happened? We didn't plummet in the previous cycle, from 69,000 to 16,000, which was the bottom, not by a long shot. What exactly happened? Notice, there was a drop and then a

[11:33] strong initial rebound. What have we experienced in this cycle? A drop and a first strong rebound, which was this rebound close to $100,000. After this rebound, what did we experience in the previous cycle? an even steeper fall to take

[11:49] us close to 20,000, what have we just experienced? An even steeper drop to take us close to 60,000. And after this we had that 60,000. And after this we had that last rebound from 20 to

[12:03] approximately 30, 25, and then we completely cleared the cycle lows. What might we be experiencing right now that is literally very similar? That last rebound from 60 to approximately 72 or 70, which is what we

[12:20] saw yesterday, to then go completely to those cycle lows. What are we doing now? We are not trying, nor do we plan to

[12:32] try, to catch the bottom of the bear market exactly at 50, 45, or 55. That is practically impossible. Nobody knows what the market floor will be, and anyone who claims to know it exactly should run away because it's highly

[12:48] fact, the market is unpredictable. You can never know exactly what makes sense? And what we are doing personally is having our own

[13:00] buying zone so we can do DCA, which is exactly what you see on screen, that buying zone between $60 and $50,000.

[13:12] Everything we can buy of Bitcoin at those prices, we know it will be supercharged for the next bull cycle in which Bitcoin will again surpass its all-time high, it will go above 126,000, it will go, we'll see where, where it will

[13:27] reach, but it will go close to 200,000 for sure and all those purchases between 60 and 50 will be incredible. And in fact, 2026, as we always say, is going to be the year of historic opportunities for all of you watching this

[13:41] video who are still in the crypto market or are just starting out, learning now in times of panic, uncertainty, and when nobody wants to know anything about it. Now, these historic opportunities to create

[13:54] coming years are going to happen. And in fact, this is what we have planned both with Bitcoin and with the long term of this market. But we also always have a percentage of our liquidity that we allocate to continue

[14:09] generating profitability regardless of how the market is doing. rising by 10%, it makes absolutely no difference to us because we have a method and a strategy to continue generating profitability month after month.

[14:23] , as you know. We will within this market that we can take much greater advantage of in the short term so that even if the market continues to fall and the portion of

[14:37] can still generate a return on the rest of the portfolio. So how do we do it? As you know, within the alpha channel we have been discussing for months that we have strategies here in various branches of the crypto sector. We are

[14:50] that aspect of both trading, making short-term profits with operations, and generating passive income each month with farming, and providing liquidity to the market. But specifically, I

[15:03] we closed the month and here we shared within the operational part of trading super transparent and we're super proud of it. And that's why you see here that we have 15 operational ones that we launched. The second one, if you notice, is

[15:16] point that it never reached and we cancelled it. But of the remaining 14, only two went to the stop loss with good risk management, and of the remaining 13, four went to break

[15:32] even, meaning we exited at break even with zero gain and zero loss, and the remaining nine went to the point we wanted them to reach, which gives us a very good

[15:46] ratio. Furthermore, what's interesting is that we're shorting, betting that the market will go down not only in Bitcoin, but in several crypto assets, including Rose, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and even gold, and even when

[15:59] one of the things we work on very hard within the alpha channel, and we've been sharing each of these trades publicly within we have also started with more operations this month. Look, for

[16:14] example, I think we launched one today, look, SUI, this morning we were able to launch another short futures operation for SU and right now we only that, because many of you who have been following us for a

[16:27] while signed up for a class we did recently where we talked about currently using that is proving incredible, and that is the strategy of trading shorts, trading altcoins in short positions. Obviously, as we see that at a

[16:41] macro level the market looks like it's going to fall, extra return and here we share different sharing, but notice how, for example, Kevin says, "Hey, new short

[16:55] on Euler above this point." We're going to implement that short-selling strategy. And the interesting thing is that we're not the only ones making a profit, but look, for example, here we have David Garrigosa, who just recently made

[17:08] Garrigosa, who just recently made a 135% profit on Power in short positions. We also have Pablo who gets 33%, 20%. This is from today, March 3rd, right when we recorded this video. All of this is the work of people who don't care

[17:21] if Bitcoin is going to go up or down in the short term, it makes absolutely no difference to them. They understand how Bitcoin works in the long term, but they also know how to get even more out of their capital in the short term . Literally,

[17:34] in this type of operation, we are doing more than three or four operations every day because we are always being given opportunities and we are getting a regardless of how the market is. So, as always, if

[17:47] strategies that we've been sharing for weeks and months video description you'll find a link to schedule a call with our team to see if this is really for you, explain how it works,

[17:59] opportunity to get involved, start profiting, and then, when the market turns around and Bitcoin reaches its peak, we can make even more profit on all the capital we've generated. So, with that said, I hope that,

[18:12] as always, you've enjoyed this daily crypto update, and that it's given you a bit of insight market right now. As always, if you like it, leave us a like. It also gives us really love everything we bring you, and please leave us a comment with what

[18:26] kind of news, opportunities, or what you are doing in this sector. As always, a decentralized hug and see you next week.