The Fed SHOCK Hits *TOMORROW* | Watch BEFORE WEDNESDAY

[00:00] Donald Trump is playing a great game of

[00:02] 4D chess with markets. And with the

[00:04] Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow and

[00:06] Kevin Worsh's first Federal Reserve

[00:09] meeting, oh, it is so weird to say that.

[00:12] No JP, pal. Dang, we have to prepare for

[00:16] what we should expect for tomorrow. Now,

[00:18] let me start by saying this. I think

[00:19] there is absolutely zero shocker that

[00:23] Donald Trump is doing everything in his

[00:24] power to get a deal signed with Iran,

[00:27] including begging BB to stop attacking

[00:30] or striking Hezbollah inside of Lebanon

[00:32] for obviously retaliating against

[00:34] Hezbollah, who's retaliating for Israel,

[00:36] attacking Iran, who'sal, this keeps

[00:38] going, okay, we don't need to go down

[00:39] this rabbit hole. Point is, Donald Trump

[00:41] is like, "Yo, we need this deal done

[00:43] this week and we need to do everything

[00:45] in our power to get oil prices to go

[00:47] down because we need Kevin Walsh to be a

[00:50] good little puppy and start talking

[00:52] about rate cuts because that's what the

[00:54] market is not doing right now." And so

[00:57] far, Donald Trump's call it

[00:59] announcements or convenient timing or

[01:02] manipulation is working out quite well

[01:04] for oil. Now, that is creating some

[01:07] nervousness in the stock market, but

[01:08] I'll explain exactly why in just a

[01:10] moment. But first, regarding oil, take a

[01:11] look at this. International Brent crude

[01:14] down under 80. Let's freaking go. That's

[01:17] actually huge. My goal was to get to

[01:20] about $65 to $70 by the first quarter of

[01:24] 2027.

[01:25] We're already at $79 in June. That's

[01:30] fantastic. WTI sits at 76 bucks. So, we

[01:33] still have a little bit of room to go.

[01:35] But one of the big reasons we're

[01:36] dropping today is because of this Wall

[01:38] Street Journal exclusive, which

[01:40] indicates that the Trump Iran deal is

[01:42] immediately allowing Iran to sell oil.

[01:45] In other words, if you've been paying

[01:47] attention to what Donald Trump has been

[01:48] saying, he's been consistently saying

[01:50] that oil is going to drop like a rock as

[01:52] soon as a deal is signed. And so, it's

[01:54] no surprise to me that the deal is

[01:56] actually going to immediately, there's

[01:59] no like, hey, we'll give you half of the

[02:01] $24 billion now. Hey, if things go well,

[02:04] we'll give you $300 billion in

[02:05] investment money over time and Jared

[02:07] Kushner is going to help you rebuild.

[02:09] There's none of this like, hey, we'll

[02:10] talk about it later crap. It's quite

[02:13] literally the provisions for waiverss of

[02:15] sanctions on oil take effect immediately

[02:18] upon signing the agreement this week and

[02:21] also enable whatever is necessary to

[02:24] make sure that banking infrastructure,

[02:26] transportation, insurance policies,

[02:28] whatever it is, even if the United

[02:30] States has to do an insurance like

[02:32] guarantee fund or whatever is done to

[02:35] make sure that oil keeps flowing. I kid

[02:37] you not. This is all part of the plan to

[02:40] make sure that Kevin Worsh can show up

[02:42] tomorrow and talk to us about recuts

[02:45] because that's how you keep this boom

[02:48] going. It's not just going to be SpaceX,

[02:50] which obviously is doing a fantastic

[02:53] movement. I'm very happy about because

[02:55] we got a lot of money in SpaceX, but

[02:56] hey, you know, let's be clear here. It's

[02:59] going through its meme movement. This is

[03:00] what we thought. We're like, "Okay, it's

[03:02] going to get a little bit of a meme bump

[03:04] for the first 15 to 30 days cuz nobody

[03:06] can sell." Uh, even people who bought on

[03:09] IPO day, a lot of brokers require them

[03:13] to hold for at least two weeks. So, this

[03:14] is totally reasonable. We made a little

[03:16] SpaceX and Tesla video this morning. You

[03:18] should check out if you haven't seen it

[03:19] yet. But most importantly right now is

[03:23] what do we expect for Kevin Worsh

[03:25] tomorrow? Well, I've said it before and

[03:26] I'll say it again. And I think Kevin

[03:28] Worsh is going to be an anchor for

[03:30] interest rates. He has no appetite to

[03:34] actually increase interest rates. But

[03:37] when there's a big inflationary regime,

[03:39] obviously there's going to be a lot of

[03:41] pressure to potentially raise rates. So

[03:44] what is the market doing right now?

[03:46] Well, the market is screaming at the

[03:47] Fed, you should raise rates. In fact,

[03:49] with about a 58.6% 6% likelihood. The

[03:53] market says the Federal Reserve should

[03:55] raise rates once by the end of the year.

[03:58] And with about a 16% likelihood, the

[04:01] market should or the Fed should raise

[04:03] rates twice by the end of the year. And

[04:06] if we go to the uh let's see, July 28th

[04:08] of 2027, we would only have about a

[04:11] combined 31% chance of staying where we

[04:14] are with rates or going down. Only about

[04:17] a 2.3% chance of getting a rate cut. So,

[04:19] the market's not pricing in any cuts.

[04:21] The market's pricing in two rate cuts

[04:24] certainly by next summer, but maybe even

[04:26] by the end of the year. And in order to

[04:28] U-turn that, you suddenly need

[04:31] inflationary pressures to tank. Pun

[04:34] intended, because now we're going to

[04:35] have tankers tanking oil by literally

[04:38] tanking oil. Get it? Anyway, uh oil

[04:42] prices are tanking because oil is

[04:44] finally going to get tanked out of the

[04:45] straight of four moves again. And this,

[04:47] in my opinion, is all happening

[04:49] purposefully right before the Kevin

[04:52] Worsh meeting tomorrow. Think about it.

[04:54] The Federal Reserve, they start their

[04:55] meeting today. Wow. Hey, big news on the

[04:59] Wall Street Journal conveniently, right

[05:01] as the meeting starting, you know, maybe

[05:04] a couple hours into the Fed meeting.

[05:05] We're going to give insurance

[05:07] guarantees. That's been rumored that

[05:09] part, but we're going to enable

[05:11] insurance a colloquialism for insurance

[05:13] guarantees, I think. uh and we're going

[05:15] to make sure that they can transport oil

[05:17] immediately without any kind of delay or

[05:20] issues and we'll let the Iranians sell

[05:22] their oil to the global market.

[05:24] Conveniently, as the Fed meeting starts

[05:26] today, the Fed meeting ends tomorrow

[05:28] morning and it culminates with a rate

[05:30] decision. We'll probably get a hold and

[05:33] then of course we'll get Kevin Walsh's

[05:36] yapping. Now, I'm personally really

[05:38] excited to see the Kevin Wars yapping

[05:40] because I think today uh you have a lot

[05:44] of market participants that are kind of

[05:46] nervous. They're like, "Oh my gosh, what

[05:47] are we going to get? The Fed's going to

[05:49] be forced to talk about a rate hike.

[05:52] This is bearish. Let's take some money

[05:54] off the table." We also get a summary of

[05:57] economic projections tomorrow. Unless

[05:59] Kevin Worsh for some reason removes the

[06:01] summary of economic projections, it is

[06:03] an SEP meeting. But what's more

[06:06] interesting to me is that right now

[06:09] you've got a lot of people with a lot of

[06:12] money in markets and I think people

[06:15] hearing, "Oh no, the Fed meeting is

[06:16] tomorrow." Has people going, "All right,

[06:18] all right. Well, let's be a little

[06:19] cautious. We had a big run yesterday.

[06:22] Maybe we don't want to be so aggressive

[06:24] going into a Fed meeting." Today in the

[06:26] course member liveream, I actually said,

[06:28] "Hey, to don't do not expect it to

[06:31] rocket like it did yesterday." Yesterday

[06:32] in our course member live stream in our

[06:34] alpha report I'm like hey I bet up today

[06:36] like calls baby and today what we said

[06:39] in the alpha report was be careful a lot

[06:42] of the juice has already been thrown

[06:44] into the market on Monday we had a great

[06:46] extension yesterday expect that to slow

[06:49] down today as people get nervous about

[06:50] the Fed in fact we specifically pointed

[06:52] out the 735 line which we've been rubber

[06:56] banding aroundish here I really hope we

[06:59] close at 735 really don't want to lose

[07:01] that 730 35 line although it is a pretty

[07:03] loose line. Anyway, uh one thing to note

[07:07] is financials are actually doing pretty

[07:09] decently right now. Visa, JP Morgan,

[07:12] Veru, SoFi, all doing really well. And

[07:15] even though Robin Hood is red today, it

[07:18] has shot up over the past few days from

[07:21] about the mid to low 70s. That support

[07:23] somewhere around 69 to 80 in that range

[07:26] is where we kind of keep bouncing up on

[07:28] Robin Hood. So financials are starting

[07:30] to kind of be like, "Hey, Kevin, you

[07:33] looking for another sector here.

[07:37] Look at that." I mean, look at my my my

[07:40] shares.

[07:42] Uh yeah. So anyway, where were we? Oh,

[07:45] yeah. Uh over here, Bank of America.

[07:49] Look at this. This I thought was

[07:50] actually kind of incredible and imply

[07:52] like reiterates to me why there's some

[07:54] red today. Bank of America private

[07:56] client cash holdings as a percentage of

[07:59] assets under management. Keep in mind

[08:01] Bank of America doesn't manage real

[08:02] estate. So when you know like for

[08:04] example, House hack has a bunch of

[08:06] assets. But if you just look at you know

[08:09] stocks to cash that's going to be very

[08:12] different than if you look at the stocks

[08:13] we own versus the real estate that we

[08:15] own because we own so much more real

[08:17] estate. The reason I say that is because

[08:18] Bank of America private cash holdings

[08:20] are not going to show you percentage of

[08:22] cash cash compared to real estate. And

[08:24] so if people had real estate and stocks,

[08:26] their actual cash allocation would be

[08:28] even lower. And right now we're at

[08:31] basically the lowest level of cash

[08:33] allocation we've seen going back well

[08:35] forever in this chart which is about

[08:37] 2006. We briefly bottomed out around

[08:40] that bond crisis at the end of 2018 and

[08:43] early 19. It looks like over here

[08:45] actually this I think this is all bond

[08:46] crisis at the end of 18 over here. So

[08:49] basically no cash fear right now which

[08:52] is surprising that during the bond

[08:53] crisis people were plowing money in and

[08:55] not really raising cash. Maybe the bond

[08:56] crisis is actually that little peak

[08:58] right here because people freaked out in

[09:00] like December. So it's a little hard to

[09:01] see where that line is right here. So

[09:03] maybe right before that bond crisis

[09:05] right here, right? Anyway, it's been a

[09:08] while and so people don't actually have

[09:11] that terribly much cash right now. And

[09:13] of course, we're seeing outflows in

[09:15] crypto. We're seeing outflows in gold.

[09:18] Not a surprise that we're seeing

[09:19] outflows here. Both of these heavily

[09:20] driven by momentum. Kevin Worsh is very

[09:23] bearish for gold. I call the top on gold

[09:25] when Worsh was chosen and we topped

[09:27] within 2 days of my call on that.

[09:30] Honestly, I think Kevin Worsh could

[09:32] usher in 8 years of a bare market for

[09:33] gold. That should sound really bearish

[09:36] for gold bugs and I apologize. It's my

[09:40] opinion. I'm just going to give it to

[09:41] you straight. Uh this unfortunately this

[09:43] is where the tech is the the momentum is

[09:45] rather. So I always like to be cautious

[09:47] about just like chasing momentum. Tech

[09:50] flows are obviously quite high but

[09:52] that's also where like earnings happen

[09:54] to be. And right now Bank of America

[09:56] private clients hold 65.5% of their

[09:58] assets uh at Bank of America in stocks

[10:02] with 17.4% 4% in bonds. And I wrote, you

[10:05] better hope the market doesn't crash cuz

[10:07] that's a lot. It's pretty big. Uh, also,

[10:10] Bank of America is under the impression

[10:11] that Kevin Walsh is going to turn

[10:13] hawkish at the July 29th FOMC. And to

[10:17] me, I wrote that the market doesn't

[10:20] actually peak until the market prices in

[10:23] rate cuts again.

[10:25] And so, if Bank of America's like, "Oh,

[10:27] he's going to turn hawkish." That's

[10:28] probably why you're seeing red in

[10:30] markets right now because some of the

[10:32] institutions are like, "Oh, yeah, no,

[10:33] you know, things are going to go uh uh

[10:36] they're going to hawk to us. They're

[10:37] going to hawk to us real bad." I'm like,

[10:39] "I don't think so, but whatever." So, uh

[10:43] again, I think there's no surprise that

[10:45] Donald Trump is timing this, you know,

[10:47] these oil announcements right before the

[10:50] Fed meeting because it's going to give

[10:51] Kevin Walsh the license to say, "Hey,

[10:54] boys and girls, look, we know there have

[10:55] been some inflationary pressures. We

[10:57] think they're one-time inflationary

[10:59] pressures along with all the other

[11:00] onetime inflationary pressures we've

[11:01] seen. And ultimately, we think the

[11:03] artificial intelligence deflation is

[11:05] going to show up. And when it shows up,

[11:07] then, you know, we'll um uh we'll be

[11:10] able to go back to rate cuts. And to

[11:12] some extent, you will see it come up. I

[11:14] mean, something that I thought was very

[11:15] interesting is that sonnet uh the AI

[11:18] model costs about 120th of what Opus

[11:22] over at Claude costs. and a Kimmy from

[11:25] Moon Moon Moonshot AI, the Chinese

[11:27] startup, cost about 120th of what Sonnet

[11:30] costs. So, it's like you've got all

[11:31] these like cheaper choices of LLMs. And

[11:34] I think that's going to keep happening.

[11:36] So, I actually agree with Kevin Worsh.

[11:37] That's his sort of that's the reason why

[11:39] he's at the Fed. He's a deflation bug.

[11:42] Uh I really hope we don't have a

[11:44] recession under WSH. We probably will,

[11:46] but I really hope we don't because I

[11:48] don't think he's going to run the money

[11:49] money printer like JPAL would, which is

[11:52] a risk factor because well, while it's

[11:55] probably healthier and more free market

[11:57] is a risk factor in that you will go

[11:59] through pain for longer, which isn't

[12:01] great. Now, obviously going back to

[12:04] looking at the market for right now,

[12:06] it's not just I mean, obviously SpaceX

[12:08] is getting everybody's attention right

[12:09] now. This is part of the meme cycle. But

[12:11] I do want to also point out that Google

[12:12] talking about these LLM models. Look at

[12:14] this. Google again rejecting 374. Uh and

[12:17] so it it's really not been able to get

[12:20] through that 400 level even though there

[12:23] was a period of time it was really

[12:25] pushing for it. Uh and uh now we're kind

[12:27] of getting stuck in the mud. Look at

[12:28] that. We briefly broke out to 404 and

[12:31] now we're getting rejected by some of

[12:33] these upper lines here. So a little

[12:35] shortterm bearish there on Google.

[12:38] Anyway, that's uh that's what we got. I

[12:40] will see you live for the Fed meeting

[12:42] tomorrow. Thank you so much for being

[12:43] here. Consider following me on Instagram

[12:45] and X and we'll see you in the next

[12:47] video. Goodbye and good luck.

[12:49] >> Why not advertise these things that you

[12:50] told us here? I feel like nobody else

[12:52] knows about this. We'll we'll try a

[12:53] little advertising and see how it goes.

[12:55] >> Congratulations, man. You have done so

[12:56] much. People love you. People look up to

[12:58] you.

[12:58] >> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

[13:00] and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

[13:02] to get your take.