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[00:02] indefinitely, would make you a billionaire. The other shoe you'd be broke in very little time. What's the difference? This shoe represents starting at a plus 50, which is basically the highest running count I've
[00:15] seen in my 3,000 hours of professional blackjack. That means this shoe is a card counter a ton of money over the long run. This shoe represents starting at a minus 50 running count, which means it has a massive deficit of 10s and
[00:29] aces. In this video, I'm going to explain why positive counts make a card counter money and why negative counts cost card counters money. First, let me different from most every other game in the casino. While every spin of a
[00:42] roulette wheel and every throw of the dice at a craps table is an independent event, blackjack is different. If a bunch of small cards leave the table, the dealer shuffles. Think of it like this jar of marbles. This jar represents
[00:55] the same odds if we're talking about six, eight, or one deck of blackjack. And the black marbles represent your small cards, two through six. The red marbles represent 10s and aces and the white are your neutral cards, seven,
[01:09] eight, and nine. If a bunch of small cards come out, then the odds of being dealt higher cards, [music] 10s and aces, goes up until they shuffle and the odds reset. This means that as
[01:22] the game are fluctuating until they shuffle, unlike games where every hand, spin, or roll is an independent event. And a card counter adjust their bets are in their favor and less when the odds are against them. Now, I don't want
[01:37] every bet has to be precise, every playing decision has to be perfect, and that you can last at the tables before they back you off. But at its core, changing our bets with the fluctuating odds of the game is how a card counter
[01:51] player, then it's better for the dealer, too, right? Wrong. There are four reasons why a positive shoe is better for the player than the dealer. Let's six up. You probably feel pretty good about your hand, but you actually still
[02:06] Now, let's say there are two extra small cards per deck, which represents a true negative two. The casino's advantage over you is now four times larger. extra 10s and aces per shoe, representing a true two. The odds are
[02:21] actually in your favor now in this situation because the dealer is more likely to bust with their six up. This is just one example to prove the point that basic strategy works out better in positive shoes.
[02:34] bust card like a two through six, players double downs work out far more advantageously when the shoe is positive. of basic strategy if you flat bet through an entire negative shoe, an
[02:49] entire neutral shoe, or an entire positive shoe. Flat betting through an entire negative shoe, the player would lose $135 an hour. Betting the exact same way through a neutral shoe, the player would lose $37
[03:01] an hour. And flat betting through an entire positive shoe, the player would make $65 an hour. The second reason card counting works is because more positive counts means more blackjacks with more 10s and aces. Now, that means more
[03:14] dealer, but that's okay. Let me show you. Here's a deck of all 10s and aces, representing a true 52. Now, let's play it out. Since the dealer only gets one bet when they get a blackjack, but you get 1.5 bets, you end up getting the
[03:29] better deal when trading blackjacks back and forth. And even a move from a true zero to a true one is enough to move the odds to the card counter's favor in the thing about blackjack is that while the dealer has to follow a very specific set
[03:43] of playing decisions, the player can change the way they play. For card actually changes depending on the composition of the shoe. Take a 16 against a 10. Basic strategy says to
[03:55] hit, and that's true if you're not considering the composition of the shoe. But when the count goes up, it actually becomes smarter to stand. and you can see it's slightly better to hit than to stand. And here's the math
[04:08] of a true plus two, where it's slightly better to stand than to hit. We call these changes to our strategy playing deviations or indices. By learning the top 20 situations where you want to change basic strategy based on the
[04:20] count, can increase a card counter's EV by 10 to 30%. And of course, we can vary our bets. By changing our bets based on the count, we can minimize our losses in negative counts and maximize our profits in positive counts. But you need betting
[04:35] software to optimize EV and more importantly to manage risk. Our Pro features that come with a Blackjack Apprenticeship membership, along with play perfectly and videos to learn counting, playing deviations, and
[04:48] have access to an entire community of successful card counters who are of dollars. So, in its simplest form, card counters know the composition of the shoe, so we can bet less when we have this shoe and more when we have
[05:03] this shoe. We use software to optimize our bets and to manage our risk so that we have a sure reward. For a full breakdown of optimized bet spreads, breakdown of optimized bet spreads, check out this video.