Full Transcript
[00:01] was clickbait but it's not it's definitely true today guys I'm going to definitely true today guys I'm going to go through exactly how I got banned I'm not joking how I got banned from a sports betting website here in Australia
[00:14] this is actually a pretty funny story it's a classic example of when the house doesn't win and what happens when the house doesn't win so as well as the title suggests what the house doesn't win you get kicked out the front door so
[00:28] what I'm going to do today guys is talk about how I got banned from sports about how I got banned from sports betting but the strategies that I put in place that made me get banned from sports betting because that is the
[00:41] interesting stuff so guys I hope you enjoyed this video leave a like on it if you do enjoy this is going to be an interesting video a little bit different will really enjoy it so leave a like if you do subscribe to the channel if you
[00:53] haven't done so already but for now let's get started so this is back in 2015 right back when I was you know you need A's I just go to uni during the day
[01:06] you know watch footy on the weekends that sort of stuff didn't really have too much going on in terms of employment but I did I did work at a gym back then I worked the gym floor and for the gym floor yeah it was crazy you had to wake
[01:19] up I had to wake up at 4:45 in the morning to get to the gym to open the gym at 5:30 the reason I bring that up is because when the first time that I actually thought because I actually thought this strategy up in my head it
[01:33] was it was pretty weird because on my way to work I just like had this thought about this betting strategy I could do that would make me money and at the time everyone I literally thought I was the first person on earth to ever think up
[01:47] this this betting strategy I thought I was just like I thought I was amazing I was like ah I've just one life I've just done it I've done it so it was a very cold 2015 winters morning I remember it quite well and on my way to work at
[02:03] quite well and on my way to work at about 5:15 a.m. I thought out this strategy right and the concept that I had that I thought I didn't had that I thought I didn't was the concept of arbitrage betting now
[02:15] arbitrage betting is essentially betting in situations where the probability that you're going to lose money is zero so you cannot lose money through an arbitrage bet now I know what you're thinking you're thinking that this is
[02:30] impossible right turns out it's not impossible it takes a bit of thinking but it's not impossible okay and it's rare but the opportunities do present themselves and that's what I'm going to talk about today and the reason that you
[02:45] betting is because most people just a face value just think that it doesn't work like of course the house always wins right we know that the house always but arbitrage betting is an interesting workaround where you can still make
[03:00] money even though the house always wins so anyway back then I just could not stop thinking about this strategy in fact I'm pretty sure I told everybody at the gym that day I fight singled people out said have you ever thought about
[03:13] out said have you ever thought about this I thought it was a genius anyway so the way that it works right so with arbitrage betting so let's let's take it back a step when you go online on two different bookmakers websites okay the
[03:25] odds of a particular event usually they vary slightly between different bookmakers depending on what the bookmaker thinks has got to happen right so the odds that you might get on a tennis match over on say sports bet will
[03:39] be different to the you know odds that you get over on I don't know what's an online like bet365 or something like that so for the same event you're going to get different odds across different sites now arbitrage betting is using the
[03:53] difference in odds across different betting sites to find the best possible betting sites to find the best possible deal for one event to happen and then the finding the best possible deal for the opposite event to happen using that
[04:08] difference in odds across platforms to work out a situation where you can bet both ways on the event and no matter what you still make money so I want to talk through an example because it's actually really cool when you can wrap
[04:22] your head around how arbitrage betting works so say when you're looking at online betting sites you find that Roger Federer versus Nick kurios and on one side you've got Roger Federer to win at a dollar thirty but on
[04:37] the other side you've got Roger Federer to win at one dollar and forty two okay so there's differences then you look at the flip side on one betting site you've got kurios to win at three dollars and ninety three cents and then on the other
[04:50] betting website you've got kurios to win at two dollars and ninety cents so if individually you've got site one Federer a dollar thirty kurios three dollars ninety three so that site thinks that Roger Federer
[05:05] is gonna easily beat kurios whereas on betting site two they think got Roger Federer at a dollar forty two and Nick kurios at two dollars and a hypothetical but it's gonna work for the example of the arbitrage that I want
[05:20] to teach you guys so obviously if you just look at the sites individually and never going to win because the house always wins right the house always takes their profits okay they make sure of that
[05:33] however if you start looking across different sites that's where you start process what we've got to find is the betting odds margin so what the betting odds margin actually deals with is it looks at all the possible outcomes and
[05:48] the odds for each and it works out in total for that event what profit margin is the bookmaker taking and this is the formula you use to work that out and this is for an event with only two possible outcomes so chuck the formula
[06:04] intimidating but essentially for a to like a two outcome event is just taking into account the odds of the first one happening in the odds of the second one happening and working out overall what sort of payday is the bookmaker giving
[06:19] themselves so if we analyze the first bookmaker the first online betting site putting the odds for Federer and put in the odds for kurios okay then we come out with a number out of this formula of a hundred and two point four percent so
[06:34] is giving themselves a 2.4 percent profit margin then if we have a look at the second betting site and put in the odds that we can get from that website we put those into the formula and we get a
[06:47] number of a hundred and four point nine percent so what in this case the second betting site is giving themselves a four point nine percent profit margin so point nine percent profit margin so every time you just look at one site and
[07:01] use this formula on one side you're always going to get a number over 100 bookmaker is making their money right if you get a result that's below 100 opportunity so how on earth does this happen well what we've got to do is
[07:16] we've got to take the best odds from both of the websites so what we're going to do is we're going to take Federer to win at a dollar forty two from site number two and then we're going to take kurios to win at three dollars and
[07:30] ninety three from site number one now if we enter those numbers into our formula we get ninety five point nine percent okay so that is now four point one okay so that is now four point one percent to us so what this means is that
[07:44] if we placed an unbiased arbitrage okay therefore we don't we don't change our bet amount depending on who we think is going to win we got completely unbiased arbitrage we're going to make our four percent so turning back to the formula
[07:57] we know we've got an arbitrage opportunity and then the next step is to open up the arbitrage calculator to figure out how much we need to bet both so that we can make the same amount of money regardless of the outcome so
[08:11] unbiased arbitrage so we're going to make the same amount of money no matter make the same amount of money no matter who wins okay so say we only have $100 well the arbitrage betting calculator has figured out that the way we should
[08:25] do it is that seventy three dollars and forty six cents for Federer to win at one dollar forty two on site number two and then bet the other way bet twenty six dollars and fifty four cents on kurios to win at 3.93 cents on site
[08:41] number one this means that whoever wins we're going to make four dollars and thirty cents because it was an arbitrage opportunity all right the calculated the betting odds margin told us that it was an arbitrage opportunity therefore if we
[08:55] treated as unbiased arbitrage we are destined to make money from placing arbitrage betting of course it doesn't really faze the individual bookmakers but it gives us opportunities at times where the odds of an event differ
[09:10] where the odds of an event differ greatly okay on different sites so that's arbitrage betting and how it works and this of course leads us to how the hell did I get banned from doing it well of course the house always wins you
[09:22] know when you're betting at a casino online whatever the house always wins so if the house doesn't win they get pretty annoyed okay so what happened was okay back in 2015 I don't know if they still do it but if they do still do it's
[09:35] probably something you might want to look into anyway that breaks did this promotional offer which was $2.00 Friday night favorites on the AFL right I'm a huge AFL fan absolutely love Port Adelaide go the power but they did $2.00
[09:49] Friday night favorites and they always did it so even in Friday night matches where the favorite was like $1 5 or $1 10 usually or something like that like really likely to win it would automatically be bumped up to $2 okay
[10:03] and that frequently pretty much every single time opened up from this promotion opened up an arbitrage opportunity where we could take the favorite at $2 on Ladbrokes and then go over even to something just like sports
[10:15] costs so that we could get an unbiased arbitrage and you could always make arbitrage and you could always make money now of course I did that I did money now of course I did that I did that quite well I made because obviously
[10:29] usually the the favorite one okay so usually you got your money from the promotional offer and eventually I ended up just continually winning so much so up just continually winning so much so that that breaks got very upset and they
[10:41] told me that I was no longer eligible to bet on their platform so that's the story it's pretty funny that the house always wins and if they don't win then they pretty much just kick you out the door if it's so true but I kind of I
[10:55] got banned like I did it you know like I beat the like I did it you know like I beat the system so okay that's kind of a funny story but before I finish up this video I should say that with arbitrage betting
[11:09] it sounds absolutely amazing and for the most part it is like it is risk-free sports betting usually it will risk-free betting on anything that you can bet on essentially if you can find those opportunities but it is worth pointing
[11:21] out that there are there are risks and there are things that you definitely need there risk factors that you need to factor in with arbitrage betting some of the common ones like obviously odds always change okay so they're constantly
[11:34] being updated these odds especially on big events so you've got to make sure odds you can still lock in the arbitrage odds at the time that you want to place the bet like be careful of that another thing to consider is that a bookmaker
[11:47] can cancel bets out of the blue if you've put a bet on they can cancel it they can cancel it so be very careful of that because then that leaves you exposed if one of your bets has gone through but the other ones bounced then
[12:00] the other thing to think about as well is that some of these are what a lot of these arbitrage opportunities come up from promotional offers okay whereas with promotional offers sometimes or very often they have a
[12:13] maximum bet on the promotional offer so make sure that you read like all of your you know what you're doing and you know what bet amounts you're allowed to place just so you don't get stuck in a situation where you've met one wait gone
[12:27] maximum bet on this promotions only like ten dollars then you're in trouble okay so it's it's always I'd urge you guys if you are more interested in arbitrage betting you've got to do the research like anything right you've got to
[12:41] research the risks of it and make sure that you don't expose yourself to to yeah that's that's arbitrage betting that's the story of how I got banned I'm actually pretty proud of that to be honest but I don't do that stuff anymore
[12:56] I'm much too focused on stock market investing now it's stock markets just like it's it's not like gambling but it's just like if you compare it to gambling it's like gambling but if you lose you don't lose all of your money
[13:09] like if you're losing gambling it's gone but yeah definitely check out arbitrage strategies out there if you're interested that's all I've got for this you did enjoy it I think this is kind of just a bit of a fun topic to discuss but
[13:25] so thanks guys for watching I hope you really enjoyed it subscribe to the channel if you haven't done so already if you're one of the 50 percent of subscribed hit the subscribe button you've made it this far through the
[13:38] video we do lots more content on investing and money making and that sort join the crew and that's it for today guys hope you enjoyed it I'll see you guys in the next video [Music]