I Analyzed 32 Years of Market Cycles: Here's What Comes Next for Crypto

[00:02] think crypto follows four-year cycles. But when I started studying the last 32 years of market cycles, not just crypto, but dot com, housing, liquidity cycles, tech manias, credit booms, I noticed something strange. The biggest moves

[00:17] always came from the exact same underlying conditions. And when I mapped all those conditions together in one system, the current cycle started to look a lot different than what most people think. Because despite the fear,

[00:30] the chop, and the brutal sell-off we just had, the data doesn't look at all saying for a long time now, nothing about this current cycle lines up with past cycles. And right now, the current setup looks like a market that's

[00:43] in this video, I'm going to be showing you why I feel so strongly about this, and why I've been so insistent that this cycle has not ended, it's not over, and it's going to play out vastly different than past cycles. Where we are now

[00:57] compared to every major cycle since 1993. And based on all this, what it looks like comes next for Bitcoin, crypto, and the next mania phase. This is the Omni score over the last 32 years of data, from 1995 all the way until

[01:11] 2026. And you can see it crosses this 80 line five different times. Once in 2000, line five different times. Once in 2000, once in '06, '07, once in 2013, once in 2017, and once in 2021. And all five of those happen to be the five super cycles

[01:27] that we've gone through over the last 32 years. And none of these cycles were identical. In fact, each one of these different cycles was driven by different underlying, sort of like, leading mechanics. For example, you can see that

[01:40] the dot com bubble was mostly driven by a tech mania. You can see that the '06, '07, uh, bubble that led to the Great Financial Crisis was primarily a credit and housing story. One that pops up right here, and then pops up in 2021,

[01:55] but doesn't really show its face, uh, in 2000 or 2013 and 2017. You can see that 2013 and 2017 were primarily driven by cycle fuel. This is macro liquidity, this is animal spirits, this is a little bit of credit handoff. Those were

[02:09] primarily the driving forces behind 2013 and 2017. And you can see for 2021, it was really all of the above. It was a cycle fuel story, it was a tech mania story, and it was a housing and credit story. And while no single individual

[02:22] one of these super bubbles. Credit housing, as you can see, only happened really in the '06-'07 and in the 2021 bubble. core driver behind the dot-com bubble or the 2013 you know, mini alt season or

[02:36] the 2017 broader alt season. Tech mania wasn't one of the drivers behind the the drivers behind the 2013 and 2017 cycle. Cycle fuel does hit on almost good job summarizing them all, except for the '06-'07 uh great financial

[02:53] crisis. It misses that one, but Omni score does a really good job capturing all of them. It hits every single super cycle that we've seen since 1995. And it tracks really all of the above from liquidity to animal spirits to credit

[03:06] and housing and everything else in between. And as you can see again, every single time it crosses this 80 line, you have a super bubble. Even if it just like barely crosses, you have a super bubble in the markets. And these are,

[03:18] you know, historically pretty epic bubbles. And as you might also notice, since 2021, we have not crossed that line. The Omni score has not risen above this mark since 2021. Which explains a lot of the feelings that people have

[03:32] felt uh since 2021. Like you never really had a broader alt season. You never really had this big bull run risk on environment. 2025, which was supposed to be like this epic crypto bull run year, was an absolute dud. Like most

[03:45] people were just miserable all of 2025. And that's because we have not had the same broad macro conditions that that we had in past and that we've seen in past super bubbles going all the way back to 1995. Now, what we have seen in these

[03:58] 1995. Now, what we have seen in these past years is a tech mania bubble, okay? We've seen an AI-driven risk-on environment that's been mostly focused around AI. And I've pointed out this before, there's not a lot of breadth in

[04:10] the stock market. It's really concentrated and focused around AI. And as you can see, the tech mania score actually peaked in Q1 2025. And it as you might remember in crypto around Q4 2024 was when we saw the most bullish

[04:25] you know, kind of crypto season that we've seen this entire era since 2021. That was the closest thing you could probably describe to alt season was Q4 2024, which really lines up with when this mania hit its peak. But the reason

[04:39] this didn't evolve into a broader bull run, a broader alt season is because of because first off, the fuel wasn't there. Fuel wasn't anywhere close to here in the dumps. It's because second, there was nothing you know, absolutely

[04:52] nothing driving it behind credit and housing, which is just absolutely abysmal compared to the past. Obviously, 2013 and 2017 were able to do it without this. But they were sitting quite a bit higher than we are today. And then if

[05:04] which would be the alt season score, which obviously doesn't go back to 1995 because there's no data back then cuz crypto didn't exist. Alt season score measures more Bitcoin dominance, alt rotating, ETH Bitcoin strength. And as

[05:17] you can see, that's been also pretty much in the dumps. And actually, it does line up quite well with cycle fuel as you can see here. It mostly follows You know, it's not perfect. Cycle fuel is a little bit above, it's a little bit

[05:30] below. And I think that's because it's being offset quite a bit by this tech of echo each other, which is kind of funny. But the the tech mania kind of sucks the oxygen out of room for crypto. Basically saying because AI is getting

[05:42] so much attention, crypto's kind of like the the child left behind, you know, so, what little fuel that is available in the market is mostly going to AI and not crypto, which explains why the fuel is a little bit higher

[05:55] And I've actually gone back through all the data and I compile like a macro picture of where we are today. So, looking at credit, looking at the ISM, everything, okay? Just like the complete picture. And then I I try to look for

[06:09] analogs in the past of where we most closely fit, okay? So, where do we closely fit, okay? So, where do we compare to today in the past? Like what setup looked the most like today in the past? And right now we're about a 64%

[06:21] match for the dot-com era. So, we look the most like dot-com, that we look the second most like 2017, we look the third most like 2013, and you know, we're pretty far away from 2021. And I also went back and compared today's Omni

[06:35] score to past super cycles and how long it took to reach kind of the mania frothy fun where the action starts, the bull run environment from a similar Omni score compared to those past super

[06:49] cycles. I'm I'm kind of saying this is confusing, but basically how long until the mania catches from a similar Omni score in the past. So, you know, in the dot-com bubble when it was sitting at a similar Omni score as we're sitting

[07:01] today, how many quarters did it take to reach that, you know, that mania phase? During the 2013 cycle, during the '06-'07, during 2017, 2021, etc. When

[07:13] scores, how long did it take? How many quarters did it take before you reach environment? And 2021 was the fastest, so it only took five quarters, which is about a year and a couple months for it to ignite

[07:27] from a similar Omni score. 2017 took six quarters, so it was a little bit longer. 2007 took 10 quarters, so it took like two and a half years for it to ignite. 2013 took five quarters, same thing as 2021, and dot-com as well took 10

[07:43] quarters. And I like to highlight the fact that both 2007 and dotcom were pre QE, okay? So QE was like invented post the great I mean it was around before great financial crisis, but basically invented post the great financial

[07:55] crisis. And so we've been in this post QE era since 2008. Before that a lot of They were like the primary driver of money creation. Post that it was the Fed with QE. And so in this new era of like, you know, abundant credit, uh QE, easy

[08:12] money, um you'll notice that we move a lot faster. And in the old era before this, we moved a lot slower. So kind of take that as you will. But overall, this cycles, which would hint at, you know, we're a year and a quarter away from,

[08:27] you know, at the quickest seeing this market turn around and seeing, you know, it start to flip more bullish. And at the longest, we're like multiple years away. Which obviously is not the thing that most people want to hear. Uh but

[08:39] data. Bringing all the data together, this is why I have such a deep conviction that this cycle is and hasn't been the same as past cycles because this cycle has not crossed yet uh the 80 mark. This cycle has been driven by

[08:54] different fundamentals than drove past cycles. And yeah, as I pointed out like all past cycles were kind of a bit different. They were all driven a little bit by different fundamentals. Some were led by housing and credit like I said,

[09:06] all of them had the same kind of underlying core structure. They looked about the same. And this one doesn't it falls short. It doesn't, you know, quite hit the mark. And uh the second best

[09:18] score as I as I highlighted is really this uh cycle fuel score. It catches all of them but 06-07 and it shows the same thing. We have not met the mark this cycle to, you know, pop into that bull run all season zone that we're used to

[09:32] in the past that we've hit every other time 4 years apart. It just stopped happening. And I It stopped happening because 2021 was insane. The COVID response, the policy response to COVID created a new pattern. The old

[09:45] pattern that was played out, that was that 4-year cycle pattern, was from the '06-'07 response. So, you know, the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, that led to a policy response that that created the 4-year cycle. 2021 broke the 4-year

[09:58] cycle. And this is kind of pure speculation, okay? Obviously, I am no wizard. I cannot predict the future and all kinds of crazy stuff could happen. Like the 10/10 liquidation day event, like Trump going at Iran. There are

[10:11] okay? So, take this with a grain of salt. But, if I had to guess and try to guesstimate, you know, when do we see this cross over the 80 line? When are macro conditions supportive? I won't say, you know, when there's an alt

[10:26] season. I'll say, when we match the same conditions that were present in past alt seasons and cross this 80 mark, when would that be based on the current macro picture? I would guess either some point in 2027 or some point in 2028 would be

[10:40] the most likely candidates to see those conditions happen. Not in 2020 You know, 2029 cuz they're again still following the 4-year cycle. They say, "Hey, that's But, based on the current picture, it actually hints at the possibility in

[10:54] 2027 or 2028 for something like that to happen. And I firmly believe when that does happen When we cross this 80 mark, this isn't just for crypto. This is for everything. That is when we go from the dot com bubble to the AI bubble.

[11:08] already crossed the 80 mark on the tech mania score. This next bubble up is bubble, in my opinion, will be will be the greatest bubble of them all. It'll dwarf all previous bubbles because AI is the most transformative technology that

[11:23] starting to catch on to that now with Claude Codex and, you know, starting to capturing people's imaginations enough where they can sort of guess, "Oh, you useful than I was originally writing it would be. But that mania is just going

[11:38] time a new frontier model releases and it's just a little bit better, it's imaginations and I believe by the time these conditions are ready, people will be foaming at the mouth bullish about AI and that's when we see one of the

[11:51] biggest and greatest money making opportunities of our lifetime. It'll be dot com bubble 2.0 but on steroids. That is my very very firm belief. And like I said, I would guess it happens around 2000 or 2027, 2028 and I would guess the

[12:06] peak is probably in 2028 based on the current setup today. Obviously, that could change with however Iran gets wrapped up and how things play out over with historical analogs which took five, six or 10 quarters. And if you haven't

[12:21] long time or haven't been a part of past cycles, things accelerate the closer we actually think there's going to be a ton of opportunity going into the end of 2026, going through 2027. I'm sure there will also be some crazy pullbacks of

[12:36] always is. But just because I'm saying, hey, you know, I don't see any sort of season, any sort of bull, you know, super bull run like we saw in these past cycles until you know, late 2027, 2028,

[12:50] won't be tons of opportunity in the market and I think the vast majority of the good opportunity is probably going to be concentrated in AI. I think the really a crypto story. I don't think it's going to be a story about like

[13:04] Although there will be some of that cuz it'll be a more risk on environment, but I think it'll primarily be a story of AI and AI using blockchain rails or speculating about AI using crypto tokens, that kind of thing. But that

[13:18] doesn't mean it's going to be any less bullish and I might be crazy, but I actually think that at the peak, we'll probably see more insane gains than we saw in 2021 even though I don't think it's going to be a similar liquidity

[13:30] environment. I look as we've seen in the past, liquidity isn't everything that matters. Sometimes the story and the mania actually matters more than liquidity has to be supportive, but it doesn't have to be this, you know, big

[13:43] make your own judgment. I feel like I've done a pretty good job showing all the data and kind of what's driving my thesis and why I believe what I believe. entire portfolio or you want to see every time I buy and sell various tokens

[13:56] as well as different weekly video market updates. Uh currently the Obsidian you can sign up for the waitlist in the description of this video. And as to do anything with your money. I'm obviously not your financial advisor and

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