Are These Sports Betting Tips Legit?
45sThe opening challenge and promise of exposing deceptive practices immediately hooks viewers interested in sports betting.
▶ Play Clip"The title promises a review of a hot tipping service, and the video delivers a thorough, evidence-based analysis, though the 'smoke and mirrors' angle is slightly overstated."
This video is a detailed review of the sports betting tipster service 'Insider Edge Bets' after a 30-day trial. The creator documents their process of verifying the legitimacy of the tips, checking price availability, and comparing results against the Betfair Starting Price (BSP) to determine if the service provides genuine value.
The creator begins by stating that genuine sports betting tips are hard to find and that they will reveal findings after 30 days of scrutiny on a popular tipping service, aiming to answer if the tips are legit or 'smoke and mirrors'.
The creator signed up for a three-day free trial on August 22nd, expecting to find deceptive practices like manipulated picks or unavailable prices, but was surprised to find none initially.
After signing up, they gained access to a private Telegram group where tips were posted. They downloaded the app on phone and desktop to get instant notifications and recorded all tips in Excel, noting date, time, selection, advised price, and running profit.
The creator emphasizes the importance of verifying that advised prices are actually available, as inaccurate pricing is a common deceptive practice. They noted that the Telegram app notifies if a post is edited, which was a good sign for transparency.
During the three-day trial, 10 tips were posted, with 4 winners and 6 losers. The overall profit was £43 at £10 per point, but the sample was too small to make a fair judgment.
The creator paid £25 for a month's subscription. They noted the service's emphasis on 'short-term fluctuations and long-term profits', which is mathematically sound if the tips have value greater than their chance of winning.
The creator introduces the Betfair Starting Price (BSP) as a benchmark for comparing the advised prices, noting that good tips are often smaller on exchanges when the event starts.
By day 14, 51 tips had been posted, with 17 winners and 34 losers. The biggest price was 10/1, and the profit stood at £204.50. The creator noticed pre-notification warnings before tips were posted, suggesting possible market movement.
With 100 tips recorded, the creator compared the advised prices to the BSP. They noticed significant price changes after posting, hinting at possible insider information or large bets moving the market.
Over 109 tips, 38 won and 71 lost. The average advised price was 4.7 decimal, compared to the BSP of 3.6 decimal, generating a 65-point profit. The creator concludes that the service provides genuine value, beating the BSP and offering realistic prices.
The review concludes that Insider Edge Bets appears to be a legitimate tipping service that provides value, with prices that are available and often better than the Betfair Starting Price. The creator suggests a follow-up video to increase the sample size.
Value Betting Principle
Explains the mathematical foundation of why tipsters must provide value to be profitable long-term.
04:47Possible Insider Information
Observations of sudden price shifts after tips are posted suggest possible insider knowledge or large bets.
08:19Beating the BSP
The service managed to beat the Betfair Starting Price, indicating genuine value in their tips.
10:17[00:00] Genuinely sports betting tips are hard to come by, so after 30 days of intense scrutiny, I'm about to reveal my findings for one of the hottest tipping services right now. I've reviewed a few of the biggest names in the past and uncovered some deceptive practices,
[00:16] so when I see results like this over an extended period, I'm immediately curious. It's just being too good to be true. With a claim of £1,114.70 profit, bet in at just £10 per point over the last three months,
[00:32] I wanted to dig deeper and answer just one question. Are these sports betting tips legit? Or is it all just smoke and mirrors? Let's find out. To kick things off, I signed up for a three-day free trial on Thursday the 22nd of August.
[00:48] I thought that within five minutes, the usual tips and tricks would have appeared, such as manipulating their picks, after-time and price views that weren't actually available, typing up winners and quietly deleting those losers.
[01:01] The usual kind of stuff. But they didn't. In all honesty, it wasn't what I expected, which is why I've documented everything I did for this video, and also so it's easy for everyone watching to understand. As always, I signed up Excel and started to record the date, time, selection, advice dates,
[01:19] BNP and tell you the tips running profit. The sports betting tips that I'm talking about are from the tips that are called Insider Edge Bets. I'll leave any references and links to the various spreadsheets in the description down below.
[01:31] After signing up via the website, I was granted with access to a private telegram group. The tips were published directly into that group. Hopefully they don't mind me sharing a few of these on the screen here now.
[01:43] Now timing is crucial during this process, so I downloaded the Telegram app on my phone and on desktop just to make sure I could get instant notifications the moment that they were released. But why is this important?
[01:59] Because before I start putting real money down, I wanted to confirm that the advised price views that they were suggesting were actually available. Inaccurate pricing is one of the oldest tricks in the book. A lot of tipping services post out of date or false prices or special boosted offers that aren't actually available to everyone.
[02:17] It's a deceptive practice that's sometimes used because when you arrive at the bookmakers' house, you can't get what was advised and your value there is anything but. Unfortunately a lot of tipsers get away with this sneaky trick because the broader public don usually realise what going on or how crucial the price is to the tipsers overall profit record Now immediately I noticed that the Telegram app notifies users if a past post has been edited and when which was a good sign because it keeps information honest and clear
[02:51] By day three the free trial was over and there'd been a total of ten tips posted. I caught every selection, beginning on the date of it being posted, excluding one of them, and to my surprise, I could get the prices advised, and quite easily.
[03:06] Typically, each bet was advised at a price that was available with at least two or three different sports betting companies. On one occasion, I noticed that both Bet365 and Chipolate were offering a price half a point bigger than the services actually quoted.
[03:20] I've no idea why they didn't list the tip at the best price, but it was a promise in the start. Perhaps surprisingly, throughout this experiment I did notice that Bet365 didn't always have the best prices, but more on that in a moment, because at this point there was a problem.
[03:37] 3 days and 10 tips isn't enough to make a fair judgement, and it wasn't obvious to me how they were making these selections, although I did notice something which I'll explain in a second. Of the 10 tips that were posted, 4 won and 6 lost.
[03:52] However, rather frustratingly, the advised stakes meant that the tips were only just in profit. Several of the losers had been advised at 2 points each. Now, historically, this is just my luck that the tips with the highest stakes lose
[04:05] and the tips with the lowest stakes win. We've all been there, right? The overall profit and loss was £43 when betting at £10 per point. But I needed more time to make my mind up because three days and ten tips is an incredibly short sample.
[04:21] It could have just been luck. So it was time to pay £25 for the month's subscription. From the tips they were posting and some of their comments, it would seem that they clearly understood the importance of value betting on.
[04:33] This phrase, short-term fluctuations and long-term profits, stands out in particular. You see, some might view it as a ploy to keep people subscribed for longer, but mathematically it's completely right, even if they are getting insider information.
[04:47] Now, so everyone understands on the same page here, with sports entities, money is only made if the tip's value is greater than its chance of winning. Otherwise, over a longer time period, results will never reach even out in line with their actual chance and break even, or worse still, the bookie's margin will ensure that they lose.
[05:06] This is exactly why bookies make so much money. They calculate the best true value and then include a margin in their price making them a profit Short term the bookies results fluctuate but inevitably they make the longer term profit So the point is simple Successful tipsters must do the complete opposite To
[05:27] add, this is why good tips are always a smaller price on betting exchanges when the event starts. It's what's commonly referred to as the BSP, an abbreviation short for Betfair Starting Price. I'll compare these tips to the BSP in a moment because by day 14, things
[05:44] the signs are up. A total of 51 tips have been posted at this point. Now, most of these bets were for the outright win, although some were each way
[05:56] and the occasional double cropped up too. All tips were for racing, although I did notice that there's some fantasy Premier League giveaways for members inside their Telegram group. Over this time, I noticed that regularly there were warnings that a tip was due to be posted soon.
[06:11] So it was kind of like a pre-notification notification. Now, it would be quite ridiculous to claim that the bookies are following such a small hipster, but it did seem like they were aware that the price was shortened shortly after they posted it.
[06:25] I can only presume that the hipsters were actually backing the selection of the fair stakes themselves. We all know about the problem with bookmakers penalising winners, following their bets, limiting stakes and restricting accounts.
[06:37] It made me wonder if this was the motivation for becoming a tipster instead of just backing in with themselves. Now, of the 51 tips that have been posted so far, 17 won and 34 had lost.
[06:51] The biggest price there was at 10 for 1. Again, her level of staking at £10 per point, her pick stood at £204.50. A great result at this point, but I couldn't quite work out how they were picking these tips.
[07:06] Looking at all of these tips over the last six months, which I was now starting to believe, there was no clear pattern. Short term prices, medium prices, high prices, each way back
[07:21] and even the occasional double. The majority of tips were advised at 0.5 and 2 points each, although rarely there was a 2.5 point nap. For those that are unaware, nap is a tipping term short for Napoleon meaning you best bet at the duck. Now companies like Bet365, Willinghill
[07:38] and Betfair were the most quoted prices although Ozchecker frequently showed the same prices on other brands like Betfair and Paddy Power. Fast forward to day 25 and I decided to look
[07:50] more carefully at how these tips compared to that all important BSP because if I was able to back them at BSP then there was a good chance of getting more money done bearing in mind I restricted almost everywhere
[08:06] Now, with 100 live tips now recorded, the sample was a reasonable size and I was getting a clear picture. I noticed at this point that some of the prices were changing by quite a lot after they were posted.
[08:19] It was almost as if the bookies were suddenly reacting to large bets going down. Now, I've never said it about a tipster before, but I was starting to wonder, are they actually getting inside information? It's impossible to say for sure, but these sudden shifts, sometimes at a point or more,
[08:34] felt like more than just guesswork. After all, over the last 30 days, it happened a lot. Triple 8 seemed to react slower than the rest, even the most value from the table. So, let's look at some critical analysis of the prices compared to Betfair's exchange starting price over the whole month.
[08:52] In total, there are 109 tips at a range of price points recorded throughout my analysis. The shortest price tip that was advised won at a price of 64 on day 26.
[09:04] Now, the biggest tip advised also won at a price of 28 to 1 on day 18. On average, each tip's price was around about 9 to 2. Now, of the 109 tips advised, 38 were winners, leaving 71 losers.
[09:18] On day 18, a huge double at 28 to 1 was landed, which drastically skewed the overall result. It was obviously a bit of a blinder, but in the interest of fairness, and so I can make a strong comparison to the BFP,
[09:32] I've excluded doubles and each-way bets from this following analysis. The average bet test starting price was 3.6 decimals, which is just over 5 to 2 fractional watts. Now, bearing in mind that 30 is the TIPs 1 and the spread between the prices, it indicates a fair test.
[09:48] As always, the BFP is pretty accurate. And, as a side note, if you guys want to see it, I could also do a follow-up video in another 30 days time just to increase this sample. Let me know if you want to see it in the comments down below.
[10:01] So, the average price advised by insider HBETS on exactly the same TIPs was a massive 4.7 in decimal lots, just over 72 fractions. Meaning that over the last 30 days they generated a whopping 65 point profit.
[10:17] Now over this sample they did manage to marginally beat the Betfair starting tier, but they dramatically and repeatedly beat the British pricing and the selection of the reliable and realistic honest pricing that are actually available.
[10:29] I didn't think I'd say this, but they are really providing value here. Unlike some of the previous sports betting systems of analysts in the past. Check out this video here and see what happened.
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