AI Summary
A card counter shares his 4.5-hour blackjack session at Red Rock Casino, where despite a mathematical edge, he faced brutal variance and lost $3,175. The video demonstrates the reality of advantage play: the edge is real, but short-term swings can be severe.
Chapters
The player begins a card counting session at Red Rock Casino, aiming to exploit the high-low counting system.
Despite positive counts, the player loses multiple hands in a row, illustrating that advantage play is not guaranteed profit.
The bet spread ranges from $50 at true 1 to $1,000 at true 7, with two hands played at higher counts.
Insurance is only taken at true 3 or higher; otherwise, it's a losing bet.
Most side bets have a 5-20% house edge; only lucky ladies and plus 13 are favorable in high counts.
The player admits forgetting to surrender a 16 vs 10, a basic strategy error.
The player receives attention from pit bosses and throws out tips and side bets to blend in.
At true 4, the player loses $1,000 in a single round despite having a 3% advantage.
After 4.5 hours, the player is backed off. Session EV was $869, but actual loss was $3,175.
Card counting provides a mathematical edge, but variance can lead to significant short-term losses. The session highlights the importance of bankroll management and emotional resilience.
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Mentioned in this Video
Study Flashcards (7)
At what true count should a card counter take insurance?
easy
Click to reveal answer
At what true count should a card counter take insurance?
True 3 or higher.
02:07
What is the bet spread used in this session?
medium
Click to reveal answer
What is the bet spread used in this session?
$50 at true 1 up to $1,000 at true 7.
01:28
What is the house edge range for most blackjack side bets?
medium
Click to reveal answer
What is the house edge range for most blackjack side bets?
5% to 20%.
04:50
Which two side bets can be favorable in high counts?
hard
Click to reveal answer
Which two side bets can be favorable in high counts?
Lucky ladies and plus 13.
04:50
What was the session's expected value (EV) and actual result?
medium
Click to reveal answer
What was the session's expected value (EV) and actual result?
EV was $869, actual loss was $3,175.
21:59
How long did the session last before the backoff?
easy
Click to reveal answer
How long did the session last before the backoff?
4 hours and 30 minutes.
00:23
What is the correct basic strategy play for a 16 vs 10?
medium
Click to reveal answer
What is the correct basic strategy play for a 16 vs 10?
Surrender if available, otherwise hit.
05:48
💡 Key Takeaways
Variance is Real
Illustrates that even with an edge, short-term losses are common and psychologically challenging.
00:48Insurance Rule
A key deviation for card counters: only take insurance at true 3+.
02:07Side Bets Trap
Highlights the danger of side bets, which have a large house edge except in specific high-count scenarios.
04:50Session Outcome
Demonstrates the gap between EV and actual results, emphasizing bankroll management.
21:59Full Transcript
[00:23] Hey everyone, welcome to episode two of my card counting trip in Las Vegas. Today I'm hitting Red Rock Casino and let me tell you, I managed to pull off something that's almost impossible in Vegas. A massive 4hour and 30 minute
[00:36] session before getting a back off. That's basically impossible in Vegas where pit bosses are usually eyeing you down after 2 minutes. This session was a perfect example of why Vantage play is called gambling with an edge. You are
[00:48] not guaranteed to win money. I hit multiple positive counts where the math was screaming for me to bet big and I proceeded to lose hand after hand. I hit some really brutal swings that tested my bankroll my sanity. And in this video,
[01:01] you'll see the reality of advantage play. The edge is real, but variance variance is the volatility involved in the game, and it does not care about the session, my camera actually ended up dying a couple times throughout the
[01:15] session. So, I did my best to capture as much footage as possible and got you are new, I'll be playing blackjack using the high low counting system with perfect basic strategy and countbased deviations to squeeze every possible
[01:28] percent advantage against the house. This is the bet spread I'll be using on a true one. I'll be betting $50 all the way up to a true 7 where I'll be betting $1,000 a hand. And if you missed my first episode where I tore through all
[01:40] the downtown casinos, make sure to check that out first. I'm buying in here on a six deck hit 17 game. I have hours of footage, but I'll only be showing gameplay of positive counts where I have the advantage. I played through a few
[01:53] neutral negative counts before getting to a true one here. So, I have two bets of $50 out. My first hand is a 13 and my second hand is a pair of aces against an ace. Since we're at a true one, I'm not taking insurance. Taking insurance is a
[02:07] profitable bet at a true three or higher. If you don't count cards, never take insurance. I take a hit on my 13 and turn that into a 17 and then split and turn that into a 17 and then split my aces.
[02:31] >> So I lose both hands there. >> If you're keeping along with the count, the count's raised to a true two here. So two hands of $100.
[02:46] nine. So I'll stand across. Dealer gets 20 again. Count dropped back to a true one. So two bets of $50.
[03:05] My first hand is a soft 92 and my second hand is a 92. So I'll stand across.
[03:25] and a 16 against the dealer five. So, we'll stand across again. >> Another dealer bus. Another $100 win there.
[03:43] >> finally get a blackjack and a 20 against a dealer. Six. a dealer. Six. >> Finally.
[04:01] with all the high cards that have just come out. I'm back down to nin bets. come out. I'm back down to nin bets. We got a 12 against a four spam that we lose that hand. Counts up to a true one. Now
[04:24] Found our 20. Hit our nine into a 13. Take another hit. We hit a 18. Give her a 17. The wind bow pounds there. >> We're still steady at a true one here. >> We're still steady at a true one here. So, two bets of $50.
[04:50] for me here. Blackjack side bets have a huge house edge ranging between 5 to 20%. They're pure luck and favor the house heavily, so you're guaranteed to only a few side bets that favor the player in high counts like lucky ladies
[05:05] player in high counts like lucky ladies and plus 13 side bets. five. >> Side bets still hitting.
[05:25] >> You can play my side bets if you want. >> Mine is hitting a 13 against a five. But luckily it worked out. >> Yeah.
[05:48] >> I get two 16s against a 10. >> I don't know why I didn't surrender this. I think I was just thinking about side bets, but um that should have been side bets, but um that should have been a surrender. I just got lucky here.
[06:05] Telemates now playing our side bet. >> Come on.
[06:22] Our next hand here, we get a 15 and a 20 against a dealer two. He'll stand across. >> Wow. >> Dealer. It's 20. So, we lose one hand. They're firing out another $50 bet here.
[06:47] We get a 19 and a 13 against a dealer five. So, we'll stand across >> and dealer bus. Here
[07:05] we get a 13 and a 12. It's a dealer four. So we'll stand across again. >> Yeah. >> Dealer bus again.
[07:26] against a 10. I'll hit my 14 into a bust. And I'll surrender my 15, which bust. And I'll surrender my 15, which gets half my money back here.
[07:43] Here we get a nine and a 14 against a dealer. Five. That's an easy double.
[08:10] We get a 19 and a 16 against a dealer three. We'll stand across both our hands and dealer pulls 19. So, we lose one hand there.
[08:29] against a dealer 9. We'll stand our 20 and hit our 12 into 17. >> Dealer gets 18. We push on that hand.
[08:51] We get a soft 20 and an 11 against a six. We'll double our 11. And dealer hits 18. And our double did not hit for us.
[09:16] ace. Dealer does not have blackjack, so we'll double our 11. We'll hit our 13 into a 20.
[09:43] here. We got a 12 and a pair of threes against a dealer 10 and unfortunately dealer has blackjack. We finally jump up to a true two here. We finally jump up to a true two here. So, two hands of $100.
[10:03] We get a 20 and a soft 18 against a dealer 10. We hit our soft 18 dealer 10. We hit our soft 18 into an 18. And there's nothing we can do here since the dealer pulls a 20.
[10:23] a 10. We'll hit our 14 into a bust. We'll stand our 18. into a bust. We'll stand our 18. >> Dealer is 20. We lose both hands here.
[10:40] double. >> So, we're paid 150 on the $100 bet there. >> Chance up two now. So, two bets of $100.
[10:52] I got an 11 and a 15 against the dealer two. two. I'll double my 11.
[11:07] >> Face up. >> Finally at 21. Stand by 15. >> Finally at 21. Stand by 15. dealer's 18. So, we win $100 on that dealer's 18. So, we win $100 on that hand.
[11:27] Get a 15 and another blackjack against a dealer 10. I'll surrender my 15 to get half my money back. Get paid out on my blackjack.
[11:46] my second hand, I get a 16 against the dealer eight. So, I'll hit my nine into dealer eight. So, I'll hit my nine into a 12. Hit it again into a 16. I have no choice but to hit that into a 26 for a bust.
[11:59] But I hit my 16 again into a bust again. So, there's $200 on the ad. We're still steady at a true two here. I get a 17 and a 14 against a deer 10.
[12:14] I'll stand my 17 and hit my 14 into a 19. 19. Here's got 14 and hit 17. So, we win one Here's got 14 and hit 17. So, we win one hand there.
[12:31] dealt an 18 and a nine against the dealer 10. So, I'll hit my nine into a 19. Here's got 16 and buffs out. They win Here's got 16 and buffs out. They win $200 on that hand.
[12:55] is a five against a dealer four. So, I hit my five into a nine. I get a 19.
[13:07] That's another $200 win. The house found jumped up to a true three. So, two bets jumped up to a true three. So, two bets of $250.
[13:21] My first hand is a 14 and my second hand is a 15 against the dealer race. We bust out on our first hand. Nice render. the second hand.
[13:36] can see all those low cars that have just come out. So now we're at a true two. I started to get some heat from the pit. So I threw out some tips and some pit. So I threw out some tips and some side bets. My first hand is an 18 and my
[13:48] second hand is a 13 against a dealer seven. I'll stand my 18 and hit my 13 into a bust and dealer has 15 and hits for 20. We lose both hands there. >> We drop down to a true one here. So, two
[14:05] bets of $50. Our first hand is a 14 and our second hand is a 16 against a six. So, we'll stand across and dealer bust a 26.
[14:17] stand across and dealer bust a 26. On our next hand, we get a nine and a 12 against a dealer 10. We hit our nine into a 19 and our 12 into a 21.
[14:29] into a 19 and our 12 into a 21. dealer has 13 15 and busts. $75. We get a 10 and a seven
[14:49] Is it high enough? So, we don't take insurance and dealer doesn't have it. We insurance and dealer doesn't have it. We turn our 10 into a 20. and our seven into an 11. We take another hit. We get a 14
[15:05] >> 15 and somehow turn that into a 17. and somehow turn that into a 17. He's got 12 soft 17 and hits for 19. We push on that. Has now a true two. So two bets of $100.
[15:25] six. So, we'll double our 11th and dealer bust with a 26. >> Dealer flips it over and we get the worst card possible, an ace.
[15:37] worst card possible, an ace. We're still at a true two. against the dealer ace. Not taking insurance again.
[15:53] insurance again. We get a 17 on our first hand and we We get a 17 on our first hand and we bust on our second hand All those low cards came out. So, two bets of $500. We got $1,000 out on the
[16:09] bets of $500. We got $1,000 out on the table. >> Come on. >> Oh, yes. Our first hand is a 20 and our second hand is a seven. It gets a seven. We'll hit
[16:22] our seven into a 17.
[16:37] We're still at a true four. So, firing out those bets of $500 each. Our first hand is a 13 and our second hand is a 12 against a dealer 10. Absolutely disgusting. We have no choice but to hit our 13 until a 14 and we get
[16:52] a 17. Luckily, we get a 13. We bust with 23. So, we lose $500 there. So, we lose $500 there. Deer pulls a 19 for $1,000 loss.
[17:07] Count's still high, so I got to buy him for more here.
[17:19] firing out two bets to 750. $1,500 on the table. eight. So, I got to pull out even more money now to double
[17:42] >> Face up. >> Yeah. >> Thank god we hit that 21. We've got to hit our 12 into a bust of 22.
[18:10] firing out our bets. Another $1,500 on the table. 10. We've got a stand across and dealer hits
[18:26] We've got a stand across and dealer hits 20. So, another $1,500 loss. Comes dropped to a true four. So, two bets, $500. Now, bets, $500. Now, we get a 10 and a 15 against a dealer
[18:41] 10. 10 doubles against a 10 on a true four or higher. So, we're doubling up here. Open for a 10. We get an 18 >> and I surrender my 15. >> and I surrender my 15. >> Yeah, surrender.
[19:00] thousand loss right there. Cala is still high, so I got to buy him for even more.
[19:18] Our first hand is a 14 and our second hand is a blackjack. We get paid out on our blackjack here and we stand our 14.
[19:35] cancel a true five. So, $1,500 out on the table again. We get a 19 and a nine against a dealer 10. We'll stand 19 hitter nine into an
[19:50] 10. We'll stand 19 hitter nine into an 11. Take another hit. 13 and we get 16. 16 stands against the dealer 10 on any positive count. So, we're using that deviation. Dealer's got 14, 16, and too many.
[20:05] >> $1,500 win. >> I'm sweating. >> Still firing our bets out. Two hands of 750.
[20:25] We get a nine and a 15 against a dealer 10. loss. On a true five, we have a 3% advantage. So, we'll win more than we
[20:40] term, you'll have brutal hands like this. We're still firing out those bets. It doesn't matter what just happened. We get a soft 17 and a 20 against a beer get a soft 17 and a 20 against a beer 10.
[20:56] We'll hit our soft 17 into a hard 17. Spend our 20 our money back from that last dealer. Blackjack
[21:17] counts now a true seven. So, two bets of $1,000. We got $2,000 on the table here. $1,000. We got $2,000 on the table here. Last hand of the shoe.
[21:30] Our first hand is a 20 and our second hand is a 13 against a two. So we'll hand is a 13 against a two. So we'll stand across.
[21:43] though the count was super high there, the dealer still pulled the low card. told them no longer welcome to play blackjack. I ended the session at Red Rock with 4 hours and 30 minutes of play time. I generated $869 of EV, and I lost
[21:59] $3,175. This brings our current Vegas trip total to a total of 6 hours and 10 minutes of play time, $1,235 play time, $1,235 in EV, and a total loss of $1,470.
[22:13] let's see if I can get back in profit in the next