DraftKings Screwed Up! $100 Bet = $10 Profit
41sReveals a specific betting error by a major sportsbook with a clear profit margin, appealing to bettors and those interested in making money.
▶ Play ClipAI Summary
The video showcases a series of highly profitable bets placed on DraftKings Sportsbook, highlighting how the platform's pricing errors created significant value opportunities. The speaker walks through multiple tennis bets with positive expected value, explaining the strategy of comparing odds across sharp bookmakers to identify mispriced lines.
Chapters
[00:02]
DraftKings Pricing Errors
DraftKings posted odds with significant positive expected value compared to sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle and BetOnline, allowing profitable bets.
[00:16]
Ugo Humbert +120 Example
Humbert at +120 on DraftKings vs -120 and -113 on sharp books, yielding a 9.55% profit margin. Bet was limited to $59.11 but still had $5.65 in expected value.
[01:38]
Alejandro Tabilo +110
Tabilo moneyline at +110 on DraftKings, while sharp books had him at -124 and -116, giving a 4.22% profit margin.
[02:35]
Pedro Cachin -140
Cachin at -140 on DraftKings vs -180 elsewhere, providing another profitable opportunity.
[03:03]
Alexy +115
Alexy at +115 on DraftKings vs -107 and +101 on sharp books, with lower but still positive profit margin.
[03:44]
Total EV and Strategy
Roughly $20 in total expected value from these bets, emphasizing the importance of using Odds Jam to scan for mispriced lines.
[04:10]
Line Movement Example
Humbert line moved from +120 to -130 after the bet, illustrating the concept of day trading sports and capturing value before markets correct.
The video demonstrates how to identify and capitalize on sportsbook pricing errors using sharp book comparisons, turning sports betting into a form of investing with positive expected value.
Clickbait Check
85% Legit"Title accurately reflects the content: the bets shown are indeed profitable due to DraftKings errors."
Mentioned in this Video
Tutorial Checklist
1
00:02
Use Odds Jam or similar tool to scan for mispriced lines where DraftKings odds differ significantly from sharp books.
2
00:16
Compare odds across sharp bookmakers (Pinnacle, BetOnline) to identify positive expected value.
4
03:44
Monitor line movements after placing bets to understand market correction and confirm value capture.
Study Flashcards (5)
What was the profit margin on the Ugo Humbert +120 bet?
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What was the profit margin on the Ugo Humbert +120 bet?
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9.55%
00:16
Which two sharp bookmakers were used as references?
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Which two sharp bookmakers were used as references?
easy
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Pinnacle and BetOnline
00:31
What was the total expected value from all bets shown?
medium
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What was the total expected value from all bets shown?
medium
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Roughly $20
03:44
How much did the Humbert line move after the bet was placed?
medium
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How much did the Humbert line move after the bet was placed?
medium
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From +120 to -130 (50 cents)
04:10
What tool does the speaker use to find mispriced lines?
easy
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What tool does the speaker use to find mispriced lines?
easy
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Odds Jam
02:35
💡 Key Takeaways
🔧
Humbert +120 Value
Demonstrates a clear example of a mispriced line with a 9.55% profit margin.
00:16
⭐
Odds Jam Scanning
Highlights the tool's role in identifying sportsbook errors automatically.
02:35
💡
Line Movement After Bet
Shows market correction and confirms the value capture strategy.
04:10Full Transcript
[00:02] have started to be posted in DraftKings screwed up big time. I hammered a ton of good bets, which I'm going to run through with you. Right, mathematically profitable bets where we're getting ridiculous value in the odds. You can
[00:16] see this bet on Monday for Benjamin Bonzi versus Ugo Humbert has a 10% profit margin, roughly. You bet $100, you have $10 in profit margin. you have $10 in profit margin. DraftKings is giving you Humbert at +120
[00:31] moneyline odds, right? Every sports book, the two sharpest bookmakers, are pricing this at -120 and -113 respectively. So, pretty ridiculous
[00:43] value and what you'll notice about DraftKings is unfortunately they, you know, as you can see they only give me like, you know, $68 on my tennis plays, but regardless, they screwed up big on a lot of these plays, so I was able to
[00:56] lock in a lot of good bets. So, we can see right here, see right here, Ugo Humbert +120, I hit it for 59.11, which was the max that DraftKings allowed me to wager with a 9.55%
[01:10] profit margin. So, my bet has, you know, 565 in EV in profit margin. You know, this bet is essentially worth a happy meal. I would essentially worth a happy meal. I would not give you my bet for $5 in cash. This
[01:23] bet is ridiculously profitable. And the same strategies, you know, of looking for value in the odds, whether you're betting on the US Open, any other, you know, tennis match, sport in general, is you're always looking for value, right?
[01:38] So, the second play I have is Alejandro Tabilo, right? Him on the moneyline, I took him +110 on DraftKings, so you can see that right here, 64.48. So, I have 64.48
[01:52] and then this is on Tabilo moneyline. And again, it's another sharp bet with a mathematical profit margin that outweighs the vig. The two sharpest bookmakers in the world both have this favored to be a low money line.
[02:06] BetOnline is pricing this at minus 124. Pinnacle is placing this at minus 116. When the two sharpest sportsbooks have an outcome favored and you can get it that you're getting a bet with
[02:20] ridiculous value. So, this bet is 4.22 in profit margin. Right? Even though DraftKings is limiting my stake to not much, I'm still making some money off them. So, so pretty excited about that. Then I have Pedro Cachin minus 140. No
[02:35] other sportsbooks giving us better than minus 180. Right? It's pretty rare that sportsbooks slip up this bad, but the great thing about Odds Jam is it's constantly scanning the markets, sending you notifications when sportsbooks, you
[02:48] know, screw up as big as they did here. So, we have 99.30 on this one. So, this line. So, now we're at 15 bucks in profit margin. profit margin. And then we have um Alexy plus 115.
[03:03] Minus 107 BetOnline, plus 101 Pinnacle. So, these bets are, you know, getting a little lower in profit margin, which is how Odds Jam is sorted. Right? It's constantly scanning the markets and sometimes there's no bets available.
[03:16] Right? Sometimes, you know, there's no sharp bets available. As a sharp better, you're essentially like an investor. You know, you never know when the best bets are going to occur. You never know when, you know, there's going to be
[03:29] some days where you only have a few bets, then there may be other days where you're hammering US Open lines left and right like you can see I did. And then we have, you know, this last one on Thiago. I also bet that, but
[03:44] regardless, you know, roughly $20 in EV total in all these bets, $20 in profit margin just from being on Odds Jam, you know, kind of late at night and seeing these ridiculous opportunities. You can actually see this Ugo Humbert bet. Now,
[03:58] it's down to plus 110. It looks like they moved it down a bit. And if you want a little more action, right? What you can do as well is you can go over to tennis. We can go to US Open. You know, you're kind of
[04:10] like a trader. You got to know how to navigate these books quickly. Is um what we can do is we can go to Humbert. So, you wow, he's minus 130 now. We just bet this guy. He's now minus 130 on DraftKings. We just bet him
[04:26] plus 120, I think, something like that, something like this. So, this is, you know, literally the power of day trading sports. You're This has moved 50 cents. It's now minus 130. We bet it plus 120. And again, you
[04:40] occur, when sportsbooks are going to slip up, but it's always cool to, you know, be able to get ridiculous value um like this and be able to share it with you guys to just kind of show you the power of day trading sports and kind of
[04:53] being a sports investor um and a profitable sports better. So, hopefully you found this video helpful. Let's make some money.