Beat PrizePix with Line Comparison — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] My name is Jarek, I'm a professional sports bettor, and I've made almost $200,000 in gross winnings on the app PrizePix. And I did this at around a 30% profit margin, meaning I've made almost $50,000 in net winnings on PrizePix alone. And I did all of this without watching games,

[00:18] without knowing different players, without watching NBA all day. I used straight math, statistics, and data to do this. And in this video, I'm going to show you exactly how you and copy me and beat PrizePix using odds and statistics.

[00:32] In fact, I made so much net profit on PrizePix that a few months ago, they completely banned me from their platform and I'm no longer able to bet more than $5 per split or $25 per day.

[00:44] And I'm going to show you guys that right now. I'm going to go to the NBA and I'm going to choose two completely random props and I'm going to show you guys it does not let me bet more than $5. Let's take Michelle Burgess under his points and DeMar DeRozan over his rebounds.

[00:56] I go here. If I try to put $10 on the slip and hit the mid lineup, you'll see what happens. If there's a maximum lineup amount for one of these sports right now, it's $5. Let's try two completely different sports. I'm going to go over to the MLB.

[01:09] I'm going to take Nathan Obaldi under his strikeouts. Then I'm going to go to the NHL and I'm going to take Nathan McKinnon under his time on ice. I'm going to try to put $7 on the slip, hit the mid lineup.

[01:21] You guys can see the exact same thing comes up. I am only allowed to bet $5 per slip, $25 per day, because PrizePix is scared of my action because they know that I am guaranteed to make money over the long term. In this video, I'm going to show you exactly how to find the most profitable prop

[01:36] with the highest chance of hitting on PrizePix that will literally mathematically guarantee that you make a net profit over the long run. And this is a concept called plus easy betting. Without further ado, let's get right into the video.

[01:53] What is the ultimate goal of playing on 5-6? The ultimate goal of playing on 5-6 is to choose the props that have the highest chance of hitting. And I know this sounds obvious, but guys, look at all these props. Not all these props have the same chance of hitting.

[02:06] Some of these props are more likely to hit, and some of these props are less likely to hit. So that brings up the question, how are you supposed to know which ones are more likely and which ones are less likely? And in order to do this, we're going to use a strategy called line comparison.

[02:18] Line comparison is what every single professional and sharp horse better does, in order to get an edge and profit in the long term. Line comparison is dead simple. We are going to compare the lines on prize picks to a sharp sports book

[02:32] to see where prize picks have mispriced their odds and are giving props that have a high chance of hitting. Now, I know some of you guys might be a little bit confused right now. What is this line comparison thing that he's talking about? But to ease this confusion, we're going to do a dead simple example

[02:47] that even a second grader can understand. Let's take this prop for example. Paul George under or over 17.5 points. If we want to find out what the odds of this bet hitting are, we can go over to the largest sportsbook in the entire country, FanDuel.

[03:03] We're going to go to the NBA, and we're going to find Paul George, who plays for the Philadelphia 76ers. We can simply type his name in up here. We can type in Paul George points. And as you can see, his line is minus 112 for the over and minus 118 for the under.

[03:21] Now, to get the true odds of Paul George going over or under 17.5 points, we can use a tool called a no-vig calculator. And that is N-O-V-I-G calculator. Now this calculator will tell you exactly what the fair odds of a bet happening are.

[03:37] You're going to take one side of it, which is minus 112, you're going to plug it into the top and then you're going to stick mine 2018 and you're going to put it into the bottom and here as you can see it is basically 50 50 whether paul george goes over or under 17 and a half

[03:51] points so with this bet right here is basically dead even whether he's going to go over or under 17 and a half points and that is not what we were looking for we're looking for props that are heavily favored to either go over or under and that is where our edge is going to come from if

[04:06] If this is confusing to you, trust me, it is going to make sense to you in less than 60 seconds. Now let's take a look at a completely different prop. Let's find RJ Barrett. How about his rebound line? His rebound line is set to 6.5 for the over-under.

[04:20] If we go over to FanDuel and we find RJ Barrett rebound line type in RJ Barrett rebound Here we find that RJ Barrett is plus 116 to go over while his under is minus 154

[04:36] Basically what FanDuel is saying here with this minus 154 number, they are saying that we think that RJ Barrett is heavily favored and more likely to go under than he is to go over. Compare that to Paul George's points where you can see it's $112, $118.

[04:52] SpanDuel is not really favoring one side, but S&C with this bet, they are heavily favoring the under. If we type this into our NoVid calculator, we take $116 and we take minus $154.

[05:05] I believe that's what it was. Yes, minus $154. Now we see that the fair odds of R.D. Barrett going under is actually 56% compared to with Paul George where it was like 49 or 50%.

[05:19] So now we know that RJ Barrett, when we look at the line on a sportsbook, is heavily favored to go under 6.5 rebounds. Does that make sense, guys? We're using the information from a sportsbook that has millions of different data points

[05:33] that literally does this with billion-dollar teams and has all the data in the world. We are using their odds against prize picks to find where props are heavily favored to go under

[05:45] or over and then we are playing them on size six to get an edge. These are the results in just the last week of using the line comparison strategy. I'm averaging around a 55 to 60 sometimes even 65

[05:58] percent hit rate on NBA props, tennis props, and esports props as well as football props when football season is in session. Obviously you're not always going to get that four out of four, that five out of five, that six out of six, but when you have a hit rate that is this high

[06:13] it is guaranteed that in the long run you are going to make money. Now how can I make such a bold claim? How can I say that it is guaranteed? See that brings us to our next topic and the most important topic in the video

[06:25] and that is the concept of break-even odds or implied percentage. As some of you might know not every slip type on PrizePix is made the same. Some slip types are optimal to take and some slip types are not optimal to take.

[06:38] So very quickly I'm going to run through this. Because Procter & Gamble has six odds, meaning the payout is always the same no matter what you choose, and what do I mean by that? If I choose more on this and then less on this, it's a 3x, right?

[06:51] I can change it to more on this and less on this. It's still a 3x. I can take this guy out and I can switch this guy out. It's still a 3x, right? Because the payout is always the same, you can actually calculate the percent of your individual props

[07:04] that you need to get correct over the long run in order to break even. So basically, you can measure how good a slip type is or how bad a slip type is. First, with the two power, you have to hit around 57.74% of your individual props

[07:18] in order to break even over the long run with a two-man power. This means you have to have some really, really good props with a very high chance of hitting in order to make a two-man power profitable over the long term. Three-man powers and three-man flexes are terrible splits.

[07:32] You should never use a three-man. If you see anybody on social media or selling tips using a three-man, They have absolutely no idea what they're doing. You should never listen to them or follow them. You have to hit at an extremely high rate just to break even when you play these three-mans.

[07:46] Do not use them, guys. Four-man power next. 56.23%. The four-man power, you guys seem to use this pretty often. It's really good, especially when you can get some correlation between two different legs.

[07:58] The four-man flex really makes no sense to play. Yes, it is a little bit more than the four-man power. they are kind of similar but with a four man power you can use correlation and when you're using correlation it doesn't make sense to use the flex i'm not going to go into detail about

[08:12] that guys i have different videos on correlation out there so so far the two man power i think the two man power is good i use two man power pretty often because very often i find very good props on pie sticks the four man power i use this sometimes as well for correlation flips or if i

[08:28] can only find four really good props but as you can see down here guys we have these two highlighted in dreams. The 5-man flex and the 6-man flex. These two are the most profitable types of flips on 5-6. I know that might sound confusing. I know that might sound kind of crazy that

[08:45] a 5 and a 6 is more profitable than a 2 A lot of people think that because a two man is easier to hit that means it more profitable That is not true at all guys With the five man flex and the six man flex, you only have to hit 54.34% of your individual props over

[09:03] the long run in order to break even. This means that there is a lot more leeway and a lot more room to play props. So for example, when we found that prop earlier, I believe it was Jerry Grant under 6-man rebounds, the fair odds are minus 130, aka 56.7%. So this would be a good prop to use in

[09:23] a 5-man or a 6-man flex, or even a 4-man power, because it is a prop that hits at a 56% rate. That will be profitable if you play it inside a 5-man flex or a 6-man flex, as low as a 4-man power. So in conclusion, the only subtypes that you really should be using on 5-6 are a 2-man

[09:39] power sometimes, a 4-man power sometimes, and especially a 5-man flex and a 6-man flex. I'm going to show you guys one more example of what is a good prop on prize picks and what is a bad prop on prize picks.

[09:51] So let's go back to the NBA. Let's look at, let's see, let's look at Josh Giddey 1.5 three-pointers made. We're going to go over to FanDuel and we're going to type in Josh Giddey threes.

[10:05] Now as you can see Josh Diddy his threes line if you scroll down is minus 125 for the over and minus 106 for the under. If we type this into our no big calculator, I'm going to leave this down in the description

[10:19] by the way if you want to check out this calculator. All you have to do is type in no big and it will come up on Autogym. Type in minus 125 and I believe the under is minus 106. We can see that for these props the over is 51.92% and the under is minus 106.

[10:35] is 48%. Neither of these are strong enough to use in any type of split on 5-6. So if you try to use this prop, it is actually negative EV, meaning you're going to lose money over the long run.

[10:47] I'm not going to go into the math behind this, but basically this prop right here has no edge, and you would not want to take this. Now we're going to look at an example of an actual profitable prop where we can see that one side is heavily favored, and it will be a good play to play on

[11:01] Let's find Chris Middleton and look at his rebound line. His rebound line is set to 4.5 rebounds. If we go over to FanDuel, we type in Chris Middleton rebounds.

[11:14] Here we can see that for the line of his rebounds, the over 4.5 is plus 110 while the under is heavily favored at minus 140. We're going to type this into the NoBid calculator that I showed you guys earlier.

[11:26] If you guys want to check out this calculator, I'll leave a link to it down in the description so you guys can use it for yourself. We're going to type in plus 110 for the over. You don't have to type in the plus. You can just put 110.

[11:38] And then the under is minus 140. We can see that the fair odds for this prop are minus 122 or 55.06%. Now, going back to this chart, we can see 55% is above 54.34.

[11:53] So this would be a good prop to use in a 5-man flex or a 6-man flex. this is plus easy and it is mathematically guaranteed that if you use props like this inside of the correct optimal flip side you are literally mathematically guaranteed to make money

[12:08] over the long term this is the definition of plus easy betting we're using odds and statistics in order to get an edge using the actual fair value of the prop on a sharp sportsbook like fan duel now i know that might sound kind of fancy it might sound kind of out there

[12:24] But trust me, guys, it is dead simple. All we're doing is going to a sports book, we're finding the fair odds, and then we're using that inside of an optimal flip site. And this is how you mathematically make money betting on sports and on price picks.

[12:36] Now, a lot of you guys might be thinking, this looks like a lot of work. How am I going to find these props by comparing them to sandals? This will literally take hours. And you guys would be correct. And that is why you don't do this by hand. There's actually a tool that you can use that I hand-built by myself

[12:51] that finds the most profitable props on PrizePix, and that's called the Visa Sportsbooks Discord. Inside of my very own Discord server, I built a tool that scans these sportsbooks, like FanDuel and Pinnacle, that have sharp odds,

[13:05] to find the plays that are mathematically more likely to hit and it actually sends them out in this spreadsheet format to the Discord every 30 seconds Here we can see the most profitable plays right now or Jordan IU under 1 shots in this Leicester vs West Ham game

[13:21] Jeremiah Fierce in NCAA basketball under 17 points, Mohamed Kudas under 3 shots, RJ Barrett under 6.5 rebounds, which was our first example in this video, etc. I am very excited to release this tool to you guys,

[13:35] and it has been a long time in the making, and I'm excited to have my products in the world of profitable sports betting optimizers. Now, not only did I build this tool for Prize Stakes, but I also built a tool for Underdog Fantasy. Inside of the channel called Underdog Deeds, it sends the most profitable plays on Underdog Fantasy at any given time.

[13:53] And as you can see, guys, there is a crap ton of value that it spits out literally every 30 seconds. Right here shows the estimated win percentage based off the fair odds on a soft sports book, and then here it shows the expected value,

[14:06] which basically means how much of an edge do we have if we play this prop. The tool is dead simple. It gets spent every 30 seconds or so. All you can do is read off the props, make it into the ultimate flip side based off the win percentage,

[14:20] and watch your profits climb. Remember, guys, this is the same exact strategy combined with some correlation strategies that got me banned from PrizePix and no longer even able to play more than a $5 flip, $25 per day.

[14:34] Even better, if you guys want to try out this tool for completely free, you don't have to give me any money. I want you guys to join and see how profitable this tool can be. You guys can get a free three-day trial using the first link down in the description.

[14:46] Again, it is completely free for three days, and then it is only $49 a month for this tool. If you guys want to get a free trial, go ahead and check out the link in the description. Again, this tool can be found inside my Discord, which is called Deepest Sportsbook.

[15:00] In addition to the prize picks and underdog speed, I also give out prize pick plays from my personal AI and machine learning model, which has a historical 60 plus percent hit rate on esports alone. And these picks can be found inside of the prize pick VIP channel, where I put out the clip along with the link to tail.

[15:17] When you guys join the discord, make sure you go to the start here in the general guide channel, and this will tell you how to navigate and use the server. This is super important guys, before you even the prize pick and the underdog speed, before you place a single bet, you're going to want to go to this channel called Feed Guide.

[15:33] This is going to tell you the best practices and how to use the feed to get the most optimal bets and the bets that have the highest chance of hitting. One of the most important things in my opinion is number two right here, play props that are closer to game time instead of games that are, you know, 12, 16, or 24 hours plus away.

[15:51] This is because right before game time, the lineups as well as the injury news is set, and that means you're going to get the best and most accurate odds compared to the sharp books. So, for example, let's say you take a bet where you have a player on one team to go under,

[16:06] but then somebody else on the team is ruled out of the game, so this person is going to be getting more shots. You don't want stuff like that to happen. You don't want injury news and lineup news to affect your bet. So you want to be betting closer to game time. Sometimes I literally put in bets 30 minutes before game time, and this leads to super accurate bets.

[16:23] I also have these implied odds charts inside the Discord, so you don't have to leave the Discord to see them every single time on PrizePix and Underdog Fantasy. I also get into how much you should be betting on each parlay. In my opinion, I think you should do anywhere from .25 to .5 units on 3-mans and 2-mans, and then stick to around .25, maybe .33 units on 5-mans.

[16:43] The Beaker Sportsbooks Plus EV Discord with the PrizeFix feed, the Underdog feed, and all of my personal machine learning and AI picks is available for only $49 per month.

[16:56] Yes, you heard that right, $49 per month. But if you guys want to get a free trial to trial the Discord for completely free for three whole days, I am giving out 100 free three-day trials using the first link in the description.

[17:09] So if you are one of the first 100 people to click on that link and join the discord, you will get 3 days for completely free. I may extend this farther than 100 people in the future, but for now it is only going

[17:21] to be the first 100 people. So make sure you join using the first link in the description. That's going to do it for this video guys. Can't wait to see you guys in the discord. If you guys have any questions you can add me on discord at DerekBeth or you can send me an email. My email is going to be down in the description. Make sure to like and sub if you guys liked the video and I'll see you in the next one.

[17:39] Thank you.