Plus EV Sports Betting: Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] In this video, I'm going to explain in the simplest and most easy to understand way what positive expected value sports betting really is and why it's currently one of the best ways to make money on the entire internet. If you're taking the time to watch this video, congratulations because you're about to become

[00:14] smarter and more influenced than 99% of all sports bettors because that's the percent of people who will actually lose money over the long term through the books. Plus TV Sports Betting has changed my life and allowed me to go from a broke college student to now making over $100,000 in profit all time betting on sports.

[00:29] Plus EV Sports Betting has not only changed my life, but also changed Trevor's life, who was able to start from a $100 bankroll and turn it to over $60,000 in just one year. Or Drew, who was able to leverage Plus EV data to make over $136,000 in profit in 2023 alone.

[00:45] Justin started Plus EV Betting and was able to make over $10,000 in profit in just one month as a full-time college student. And there are thousands of more success stories of people who were able to create a legitimate second income source from Plus EV Betting. The information in

[00:58] this video will change the way you look at sports betting forever and has the potential to change your life, so buckle up, lock in, and get ready to learn. Positive expected value sports betting

[01:11] simply means to place bets that have an edge over the sportsbook and are mathematically guaranteed to profit over the long term. In order to understand plus EV betting, you first must understand three things. The first thing you need to understand is how sportsbooks make their money.

[01:24] This is probably the most fundamental thing that you need to understand in order to be a good sports better. To explain this, let's look at one of the most standard types of bets, an over-under bet. So with this game, the Celtics and Trail Blazers go over or under 217 points.

[01:38] Pretty simple. Let's take a look at the payout. Minus 110 for the over and minus 110 for the under. The minus means this bet is savory, and the 110 means this is how much you need to bet in order to profit $100. So as you can see, if I put $110 on this, I'd win $100 in profit. If I put

[01:54] $100, then I only win $90, and so on. Well, guess what? In an over-under bet, there are only two possibilities. The sportsbook, FanDuel in this case, has determined based on their algorithms and information that there's exactly a 50% chance that this game goes over 217 points and a 50%

[02:11] chance that it goes under 217 points. That means that you, as a player, a regular person that doesn't have access to complicated algorithms and inside information, have exactly a 50% chance of predicting the outcome correctly over the long run. No matter how good you think it are at taking

[02:25] games or how much you think you know about the NBA and statistics, you will, on average, over the long term, get this bet correct 50% of the time. Well, guess what? Let's think about the payout. The payout is minus 110, minus 110, meaning that for every $100 you bet correctly, you're only

[02:41] going to win 90. So what's going to happen? Half the time you'll win and make a 90% return on your but half the time you'll lose and lose your entire stake. So you win, bang, plus 90. The next time you lose, minus 100. Then you win, bang, plus 90. Then again, lose, minus 100. And this continues over and over and over, over the long term.

[03:00] You guys see what's happening here? With this bet, you're mathematically guaranteed to lose money over the long term because they accept the payout to be worse than the actual fair odds. What do I mean by fair odds? Let's say I come up to you and say hey, let's bet $1 on the

[03:13] outcome of a coin flip. A coin flip is 50-50 and will always be 50-50. These are the fair odds, the actual probability of the event happening. Well guess what guys, a 50% chance is the same exact thing as plus 100 and plus 100 in Torch Betting. These fancy plus and

[03:29] minus numbers, aka odds, are literally just probabilities. Stay with me here. We can actually convert an odd like this into a probability by using something called an implied odds calculator. So literally just search up implied odds calculator, bring one up, and type in

[03:43] plus 100 and it shows us that plus 100 is equal to 50%. So if the fair odds of a coin flip are plus 100 and plus 100, then what should the payout be if you win your coin flip bet? The payout should be even, meaning that if you got one dollar, you should win

[03:57] a dollar. This would be a fair game, aka a fair bet. You'd win a dollar half the time lose a dollar half the time and nobody has an advantage. Based off the laws of probability, you'll come out dead even if you keep flipping this coin over and over and over.

[04:10] Now imagine if I said hey, if you win the coin flip bet, you're only gonna win 91 cents, but if you lose, you lose your whole dollar. This would be equivalent to the minus 110 minus 110 payout that we just talked about. Now I, the sportsbook, have the edge. I'm making money over

[04:25] the long term because I'm winning a dollar from you half the time and losing only 91 cents the other half the time. This is a negative expected value bet for you the player. Finally, imagine if I said okay, if you win the coin flip you get a dollar and ten cents,

[04:38] but if you lose you only lose a dollar. This is equivalent to plus 110 plus 110 odds. Now it's a positive expected value bet for you the player. The fair odds haven't changed at all, we're still betting on a 50 50 coin flip. The fair odds are still plus 100 and plus 100,

[04:52] but the implied odds aka the payout are now greater than the fair odds. Meaning our bet on this coin flip is now positive EV. If you flip this coin over and over it over the long term, you are now expected to make money. So let's go back to the Celtics over under bet. Let's stop

[05:08] thinking about this as a basketball game. Stop thinking about the players. Stop thinking about their past performance. Stop thinking about the matchup. Stop thinking about who's at home and who's away. The reality is that none of this matters. It's already been taken into account by the sportsbook when they set their line. The sportsbook has used their very smart algorithms

[05:23] come up with a number that they think is about 50-50 and then they offer a minus 110 minus 110 payout on it. Even though the fair odds should be plus 100 plus 100. Meaning they are literally guaranteed to make money over the long term. This is why the house always wins. That's also why

[05:38] these are called implied odds. They are implying that there's a 52.3% chance that your bet wins even though it's only 50 which lowers your payout. The difference between the fair odds and the implied odds is called the VIG aka the house edge. It's also referred to as the hold or

[05:53] the juice For the purpose of this video we be referring to it as the VIG For any bet on a sportsbook we can actually find the fair odds aka the true probability of something happening by using a no calculator So as you can see when we bring up the calculator and we type in minus 110 minus 110 it tells

[06:11] us that the fair odds for this bet are actually plus 100 and plus 100, aka 50-50. If we want to find out how much vig, aka house edge, is on a bet, all we have to do is add up the probabilities and then subtract 100.

[06:24] Remember when I told you that an odd is just a probability? Using the implied odds calculator, we'd see that minus 110 is equal to 52.4% and minus 110 on the other side obviously is the same, 52.4%. Add these up and we get 104.8%.

[06:38] It's impossible for the over to have a 52.4% chance of hitting and the under to have a 52.4% chance of hitting. That's more than 100%. It's also impossible for two bets to both be the favorite to win. That's literally not possible.

[06:50] Therefore, this extra 4.8% is the house edge. You might be asking, well, what does this even mean, a 4.8% house edge? It means that for every $100 that you bet on this outcome, you can expect to lose $4.80 over the long run.

[07:04] Meaning this bet has an expected value of minus $4.80. You're mathematically losing money over the long term. This is why 99% of fourth graders are going to be losers long term. It's a losing game by design.

[07:16] It's not some secret that these companies make billions of dollars every single year from people who think they can outsmart the books by looking at player stats and past performances. This same exact system of offering a payout at a worse price than the actual fair odds,

[07:28] aka adding the VIG or the house edge, applies to every single bet on a sportsbook. Let's look at the Warriors and Spurs money line for example. The Spurs are minus 200 and the Warriors are plus 168. These are the implied odds. Put these into a no-VIG calculator and you could give the fair odds,

[07:44] aka the true probability, should be plus 178 and minus 178. This is the payout that you should be getting. Let's add up minus 200 and plus 158 to see how much vague aka house edge is on this bet.

[07:56] Minus 200 is equal to 66.6 percent and plus 168 equals 37.3 percent. This adds up to 103.9 percent meaning the house has a 3.9 percent edge on this. This isn't rocket science guys there's a reason

[08:09] these companies exist and it's not for you to make money it's for them to siphon every single dollar out of the pocket of people who don't understand the math. It's no different than a casino it's It's just based on sports, which makes people think that they can somehow analyze stats

[08:22] and pass performance and get an edge over the house, which is 100% false. The odds are what you want to pay attention to. These factor in everything and the books know way way way more than you. This becomes way way worse when you bet on parlays.

[08:35] Let me show you something that's going to blow your mind. Imagine you put together a two-leg parlay of two over-under bets and minus 110 odds. Now we have 52.4 times 4 as our total implied odds which is equal to 209.44.

[08:49] Our total fair odds is 50 times 4 which is equal to 200. Subtract these and we can see that the house edge on this parlay is now 9.4%. For every $100 you bet, you will now lose $9.40 just because you added one leg and made

[09:04] it a two leg parlay. This is because in a parlay full of negative expected value bets, the VIG compounds on top of each other leading to a very very unprofitable bet. If we went all the way up to a 10 leg parlay full of minus 110 minus 110 bets we would get 1048 total implied odds minus 1000

[09:22] total fair odds. This is a house edge of 48%. You'd literally be losing 50% of your money for every 10 leg parlay that you enter. This is why sportsbooks love parlays and you see them always pushing parlays and parlay boosts in your face. It's because parlays are super

[09:37] profitable for them. According to the University of Nevada Center for Gaming Research, Nevada Sportsbooks made $32 for every $100 a customer placed on a parlay in 2021. That's a 32% ROI, literally insanely profitable for the sportsbooks. So perfect, you now understand the concepts of

[09:53] fair odds, implied odds, and VIG, and how to find all three of these using a simple calculation. You also understand how sportsbooks make their money by offering all their bets at a negative expected value. I know that concept number one, how sportsbooks make their money, was a lot,

[10:07] but stay with me, because it only gets easier from here. You basically learned all the hard stuff already, everything else is easy. This stressing concept is extremely simple, yet 99% of sports bettors don't seem to understand it. And this is the fact that every sportsbook

[10:21] has different odds. The price for a bet that you see on DraftKings is not the same that you'll see on FanDuel, which isn't the same that you'll see on BetMGM. This is because different sportsbooks all use different odds makers aka algorithms to set their odds. This is important to know because

[10:35] you always always always want to get the best odds for your bet. Let's say the Steelers are playing this Sunday and you think that Mason Rudolph will have two or more passing touchdowns. On Fnatic's forcebook right now we can see that Mason Rudolph over one and a half touchdowns is currently

[10:48] available at a plus 190 payout. On draft games the same exact bet is plus 154. On bet in GM plus 150. And on Caesars, the payout is only plus 143. So what exactly does this mean? It means that for the exact same bet, placed at the exact same time,

[11:03] you would win 20-30% more money by placing it on Fanatic Sportsbook instead of on another sportsbook like DraftKings or Caesars. All these bets have the same exact probability of happening. Nathan Rudolph has the same exact chance of throwing over 1.5 touchdowns,

[11:17] but on Fanatic, we're making way, way more money when this bet actually wins. So, we can say that this bet is being offered at a better price. seem offered at a better value. It's not just enough to have better odds than every other sportsbook though. This in itself does not make a bet plus EV. In order for a bet to be plus EV,

[11:34] you must have a better payout than the actual fair odds, remember? So the question then becomes, what are the actual fair odds, aka the real probability, of Mason Rudolph throwing over one and a half touchdowns? We know that the fair odds of a coin flip are 50-50, but how do we put

[11:48] fair odds onto a sporting event? The answer is to use a no-vig calculator, remember? We can simply input the implied odds and it will tell us what the true odds should be. But the problem is if every sportsbook has different implied odds each of them will also show different fair odds For example Mason Rudolph over 1 touchdowns is plus 150 for the over and minus 210 for the under on BetMGM If we type this into

[12:10] a Novig calculator, we can fair odds a minus 169 for the under and plus 169 for the over. As we can see, our bet is at plus 190 on Fanatics, so our payout is above the fair odds of BetMGM,

[12:22] which is good, but not exactly what we care about. The best and most accurate way to find the fair odds, the true odds of your bet and ensure that your bet is plus EV is to find the fair odds on a sharp sportsbook. A sharp sportsbook is a sportsbook that is known for having the

[12:37] most accurate and fair odds. This is what sharp means. The sharpest sportsbooks in the world include books like Pinnacle, Circa, Bookmaker, and FanDuel. If you've never heard of these sportsbooks or you don't have them available in your area, don't worry, it doesn't

[12:51] matter. Essentially, we want to use these sportsbooks as basis for comparison or essentially using them as data points. Let's look at this Mason Rudolph bet again. If you notice over here, we see the odds on a sharp sportsbook, Pinnacle. Pinnacle, like I just said, is one of the sharpest

[13:05] sportsbooks in the world, meaning they have the closest to the true odds for sporting events. So let's plug the odds from Pinnacle into the Novick calculator. When we do that, we can see that the fairest and most accurate sportsbook in the world thinks that Mason Rudolph's true

[13:18] odds of going over one and a half touchdowns is plus 175. We're getting our bet as plus 190, meaning right now at this moment in this video we just found our first positive expected value bet.

[13:30] This bet has a positive EV of 7% meaning that over the long run we can expect $7 in profit for every $100 we bet on an outcome like this. 7% EV for a plus EV bet and score spending is very

[13:43] very good. I'm not going to bore you guys with more math but essentially 7% EV is what we arrive at when we do the expected value calculation that I told you guys about in the beginning of the video. This is a huge positive edge for us the players. If we do this with every other sportsbook

[13:57] on our list, Caesars, DraftKings, Slip, BetOpenly, Betway, ESPN, and most importantly Pinnacle, we see that our bet, Nathan Rudolph, over 1.5 touchdowns at plus 190 is above the no-bake odds

[14:09] of every single other sportsbook that has this line, confirming that we're getting both the best price and a plus eating bet. The payout is above the actual chances of him throwing 1.5 touchdowns, mean that over the long run, if we place this bet over and over and over and over, we would

[14:23] always come out positive. An important thing to realize that a lot of people fail to understand is that positive expected value does not mean that your bet is more likely to hit. This does not mean that Nathan Rudolph is on lock to throw two touchdowns.

[14:36] It simply means that we have a better payout than the actual odds of him throwing them. Everything we just did might sound complicated, but it's actually really simple. Number one, we found a bet where the payout is better than every other book.

[14:48] Number two, we then compared the implied odds, aka the payouts, to the fair odds of a sharp book, in this case Pinnacle. Boom, we found a positive expected value bet. Two steps. And in case you guys did notice, we're not actually finding these bets by hand,

[15:00] that would be literally impossible. Instead, I'm using a software called OddsGem plus EVTool. I highly recommend you guys go down to the first link in the description and sign up for a 7 day free trial of OddsGem because I'm going to be using it for the remainder of this video to show

[15:13] show you guys how you can start making anywhere from 3 to 5k per month plus EV betting with less than 60 minutes of work per day. So much of the money that I made betting on sports has been because of this website and it's the gold standard tool for betting on sports that pretty much every

[15:26] professional sports bettor uses. It is a paid tool after the free trial but it's lower at the price as I'm going to show you in this video. You'll also get 35% off your first month when you sign up using my link. Also stay tuned for the end guys I've got a big announcement. When you enter

[15:39] OddsGem for the first time it's going to have you select all the sports lists that you use in your state, so simply click on each one and you're ready to go. After that, go over to the left sidebar where it says positive EV. When you enter the Plus EV tool for the first time, it's going to ask you for your bankroll

[15:53] and Kelly multiplier. Your bankroll is simply how much money you had to bet in total. While Kelly multiplier means how much of your bankroll do you want to have wagered at one time. I recommend a Kelly multiplier of .25. After that, you'll be into the Plus EV tool and it's extremely simple to use.

[16:06] All you have to do is go up to this top bar here and turn on recommended filters. As the name suggests, this is a tool that searches for and finds positive expected value bets on sportsbooks. It does this by comparing odds for different bets across 100 plus different books.

[16:19] I want you to look at this. In just one NFL game, the Rams vs Giants, if you count up all of these things that we can bet on, there are over 2,000 unique bets that we can make. And that's just for one game. At any given time on a sportsbook, there are tens of millions of individual things that

[16:32] you can actually bet on. The Plus EV tool is scanning all these bets across every single league. NFL, NBA, college football, golf, hockey, tennis, everything in real time to find these rare opportunities where sportsbooks have essentially slipped up and offered plus EV lines. And it's not

[16:47] just doing that on one sportsbook, it's doing it on over 100 and comparing them all to each other in real time. Essentially, this is the most powerful sports betting tool in the world. Whenever it finds these rare odds, these rare opportunities that are plus EV, it displays them

[17:00] in this dashboard. Over here is the percent edge that this bet has over the sportsbook. The higher the better. Right here is how much money you should place on the bet, and over here to the right is the actual bet and what sports focus on. This is a simple example of how to place a plus

[17:12] EV bet. Here I can see that Juwan Johnson's under 1.5 reception has a 5% edge over the house, and the recommended bet size is $25. This bet is available either on BetRivers, ValleyBet, or Unibet. So I go over to BetRivers, I find Juwan Johnson's under 1.5 reception,

[17:27] and I place $25 on it. It really is that simple. You only want to place this bet though if the odds are the same as displayed in Odds Jam. Because odds are constantly changing, the odds could be different by the time you log in, in which case you missed your opportunity and you would skip

[17:41] this bet and go to the next one. The plus easy opportunity is Jawan Johnson's under at plus 188. If we log in for Bet Rivers and his under isn't at plus 188 anymore, we wouldn't place this bet. If you have any questions or you get confused by literally anything, you can email contact

[17:56] at oddsjam and we help you out You can even get a completely free one coaching Finally the third thing they need to understand is that odds are constantly shifting and moving You might be asking yourself why would a sportsbook offer a plug bet if they guaranteed to lose money on these bets in the long term

[18:13] The answer is that they aren't doing it on purpose. A lot of the time what happens is these sportsbooks slip up and aren't quick enough to adjust their lines to match the market. This leads to some bets being an outlier from the market. Sportsbooks are constantly shifting

[18:26] their odds and lines based on news, information, lineup projections, and the amount of money coming in on each side. At any given time they have millions of different odds they're offering. With all this going on it's impossible for them to keep up with every single one and

[18:39] make sure that none of them cross into plus EV territory. Granted this means that the opportunities move very fast. On average a plus EV bet stays up for a few minutes at best. Meaning when you find one you've got to be diligent about getting it in on time before

[18:51] the sportsbook corrects the odds. Some of the best times to find plus EV bets are in the hours directly before a game. If college basketball games are happening at 1pm on a Saturday, there's going to be a lot of line movement from 10am to noon, even up to 12.30, and a lot of plus EV bet

[19:05] opportunities are going to open up. An important metric that you should be aware of is clothing line value, or CLV for short. The clothing line refers to the odds that a bet closes at when a game starts. The clothing line is the sharpest and most accurate reflection of what the odds should

[19:17] be, and you always want to beat the closing odds with your bets. For example, let's say you placed a plus EV bet at plus 120. He took his bet at plus 120 but when the game starts, the same bet has moved to plus 100. This means that the sportsbook thinks a bet is increasingly likely to happen. You got it at a much better value.

[19:29] You beat the closing line, which is the hallmark of a successful sportsbetter. Let's talk about two considerations for plus EV betting. The first one is limits. If you didn't already know, sports betting companies do not like winning players and at any time, they can limit the amount of money that you're allowed to bet at any time that they want.

[19:44] This is an email I got from Fanatic Sportsbook just yesterday saying that they put limits on my account And sure enough when I went to place a plus ed bet, they only allowed me to place $12.50. With plus ed betting, it's pretty much guaranteed that you're going to get limited on these

[19:57] smaller books like bet rivers or bet NGN for example. But luckily books like vandal or draft kings are a lot more lenient and take way longer to limit you if they limit you at all. If you get limited on a force book, it doesn't mean that you're in trouble, it's simply

[20:09] them trying to reduce the amount of winning players. Just ignore it and keep doing your thing. It means you're making enough money to be a nuisance to them. The second consideration is variance. simply the ups and downs that you experience as a plus easy better. Even when you have the edge over

[20:23] the sportsbook, it's still possible to lose bets in the short term. You can't just place 50 bets or 100 bets and then say that plus easy betting doesn't work. You need a large sample size of bets in order to realize your edge. You can lose 10 bets in a row and still be a massively profitable

[20:36] sports better. You can even lose 3,000 bets and only run 800 just like I showed you earlier and still be a massively profitable sports better. Do you guys think that the best poker players in the the world never lose a game? Of course not. These guys lose millions of dollars sometimes just in

[20:49] one night, but they make millions of dollars in profit over the long term because they have an edge over other players. In order to track your profit, you'll need the third consideration, which is tracking your bets. Every single profitable sports bettor tracks their bets

[21:01] so that they know how much money they're making at all times. PickIt is a completely free app that connects to your sports betting account and automatically tracks your bets. Download it now and use my referral code EAGLE24570 so that I can get a small referral bonus.

[21:14] Again, the app is completely free. When you place bets, Picket immediately tracks them and automatically shows all your profit loss and statistics over time. Pretty much every profitable sports letter uses this app and it's an extremely useful and cool app, but unfortunately it's not

[21:28] compatible with every sportsbook, more like 90% of them. If you want 100% accuracy, you can do what I do and use the Oxfam Bet Tracker. Whenever you place a bet, click this blue plus button next to it, verify the details, and then hit save. It will then be put into your bet tracker and showing your

[21:44] your statistics, you win it either wins or loses. Let's take a look at my bet tracker for the month of December. You can see that this month I made $4,492 in profit with an ROI of 11%. This means that for every $100 I bet, I made an average of $100 back, which is super good. I beat the closing

[21:59] line by 70%, which is a great number and pretty much going to guarantee that you're super profitable. I had 671 total bets, which might sound like a lot, but it's really only an average of 20 per day, which takes literally less than an hour. Lastly, I won 59% of my bets, which is super insanely good,

[22:16] but definitely not the norm. A commonly asked question about Plus TV betting is, how much money should I start with? The answer is that you can start with as little as $500. If you're a beginner and you want to build up your bankroll fast, I highly suggest you go watch my

[22:29] first video, How to Make Risk-Free Money Betting on Sports, and that will show you how you can easily 3x a 500 or more bankroll with literally no risk by using bonus bets. With the information that I just gave you in this video, you now have the keys to make 5-10k per month betting on sports.

[22:44] I know this because not only am I doing it, but so are many of the 500 plus members in my discord community. Choose to bet. We have a whole community of vetted professional sports bettors with over half a million dollars in total track profit who send out profitable plays all day and

[22:59] will answer any questions that you have about betting on sports. We also have plus EV bots that run 24-7 and ping you whenever there's a high EV opportunity available on a sportsbook. Not only that but we also have extensive guides on everything you should possibly want to know

[23:12] including bankroll management, how to win on prize picks in underdog fantasy, and extremely lucrative advanced betting strategies that you'll only find exclusive to this discord. The DeuceBets discord is completely free for 3 days and after that is paid but it's worth every

[23:25] single penny. I can honestly say that being in the discord has been a complete game changer for me and for several hundred other people. We have over 345 star views for a reason. Again you can get a free 3-day trial by using the link in the description. Also, don't forget, if you have

[23:39] any Odds Jam related questions, email contract at oddjam.com and you can get a free strategy call when you sign up using my link. Take care, subscribe, and gamble responsibly.

[24:06] Thank you.