Math-Based DFS Strategy — Step-by-Step Guide & Transcript

[00:01] for you how I went from being a square better when it comes to DFS, pretty much making no money over the span of 2 years, to in the last 2 months going and years, to in the last 2 months going and making close to $1,000 with nearly 26.2%

[00:15] ROI. And this is not about gut feelings or ball knowledge or locks. I'm using actual math to do this in a way [music] that in the long run, you are nearly before we get into the math, let me show

[00:27] you a prime example of this. [music] So, we posted this on here, right? 46,000 people are taking Jaylen Brown to go over 19.5 points. >> Now, Jaylen Brown is probably going to go over 19.5 points, but the math here

[00:41] what this tweet's about. So, this guy responds with cash, and we come in here and we say, "Yes, obviously this is going to cash, right?" But this is the issue here. So, if you look at this, right? You've got Kevin Durant, which we

[00:54] we could show you the odds for the two-man. So, you've got Kevin Durant over 23.5, [music] and you've got Jaylen Brown a green goblin over 19.5. This is says a 2x, but what this basically means is you're just going to double your

[01:09] money, right? So, you're going to make [music] $10 a profit here. Now, the same exact play, even though this is not on DFS, I'm just showing you this as a math same exact play, Jaylen Brown 20+ points, over 23.5 for Kevin Durant, you

[01:24] get plus 21 here. So, that same $10 is now going to bring you in $12.15 profit. So, you're getting just on this one play 22% more profit. So, if you're playing these plays that don't make sense mathematically in the long run,

[01:38] additional profit, you're going to probably lose money because the wins you offset the losses. This is exactly [music] why we use a tool like Odds Jam, right? Because this is going to show us the math behind all of this. So, for

[01:53] example, we've got the better five picks play insured pulled up here. And you can see we can scroll down from here, and all these have implied odds, right? So, play is going to have implied odds of -137, three-man play at -144, so on and

[02:09] so forth. The best odds are the five-man insured plays for better. Now, knowing same for every single platform. If we go over here to Underdog, you can see that actually the two-man is the best play here because it's at -115 versus the

[02:25] three-man at -116 and the four-man at -122. Same thing here with PrizePicks, -136 for the two-man, the best you can do is the five-man flex at -118. So, before you even look at the plays, right? You can see that if you're doing

[02:39] it makes so much more sense to do it over on Underdog than it does PrizePicks because look at this, a two-man play, you're going to get -115 odds per leg. to get -136. So, for the same exact line and the same

[02:55] extra points of juice here if you're doing it on Underdog. Now, that doesn't play on Underdog versus PrizePicks, and here's why. Let's look at this eSports play, for example, right? So, the first two map kills are 26.5. You can see the

[03:11] line's set at 26.5. Well, we have that at -136, but over on Underdog, you can see the line's at 28.5. So, if we wanted to play the under, we would obviously we've two points higher. But if we wanted to do the over, we're going to do

[03:27] it over on 26.5 for PrizePicks because we're two points lower. So, this is a PrizePicks instead of Underdog. So, here is what the tool will show you, right? So, we're looking at Tyrese Maxey over PRA at 36.5. Well, Underdog has this at

[03:42] PRA at 36.5. Well, Underdog has this at -115. A sharper book when it comes to player props is -125 over on FanDuel. You can see some softer books like DraftKings and Caesars even have this line a whole point higher, and

[03:55] higher. So, it makes sense for us to go ahead and take this play specifically [music] on Underdog. Same with this next one, Jarrett Allen under 22.5 PRA. Again, we have -115 here. Softer books are at -117, -140. BetMGM even has this

[04:11] one point lower, and then we go over to PrizePicks, you're going to get -119 play. Now, this is super important to remember, it doesn't matter if you think this is going to happen or not, right? Your ball knowledge is actually going to

[04:26] ball knowledge that you have, you thinking, "Oh, this might be a blowout, whole game, so he's probably going to go under." The books have already put this

[04:38] into their odds. They have set this line with that in mind. Everything that you think you know about the game or a matchup, the books [music] know, and they know 10 times more data around that exact matchup as well. And this goes

[04:50] back to the graph that I showed you earlier, right? Everything here, I was never using any math. I was just using my ball knowledge, and I pretty much made zero dollars here, right? I was even down money at multiple points here.

[05:02] But as soon as I just started looking at the math, I turned my brain off, and I plays, you can see it's been consistently on an upward slope here with 26.2% ROI. Now, you can choose any of these

[05:17] right? You can go ahead and you can here. You don't always have to play five-man insured because it's the most profitable. Maybe there is a profit boost that you're going to get here for

[05:29] a two-man insured, right? Or a three-man like you can go ahead and look at those plays there and then go ahead and just use that profit boost, right? If there's can go ahead and filter that in these filters here along with teams, player.

[05:42] If you don't like taking the unders and you like doing overs, you can do that here. I don't typically mess with these filters because like I said, if it makes mathematical sense, I'm going to go with it. I don't want to let my own bias skew

[05:54] this in a negative way. One thing I do like to add here a lot of times is points just so I can see that there are things I can compare it to, right? You can see even with these first two, when there is two data points, it doesn't

[06:07] necessarily give me a ton of information because it's just softer books here, right? So, we can see that DraftKings has it, BetMGM, and Caesars have these. These are typically softer books. I like to see at least one of two between

[06:20] those are typically sharper books. FanDuel is really good with player props especially. And then I typically also >> [music] >> in this instance that we're obviously

[06:32] looking at better, I like to see either Underdog or PrizePicks here. But it would be vice versa. So, if I'm looking at plays for Underdog, I want to see something between PrizePicks or better or something along those lines. Another

[06:44] DFS site that I can see these on. Another setting that I've turned on here is show plays with line differences because I want to see these as well, right? So, you can see here under for Rui PRA 18.5. You can see better's got

[06:56] it at -118. Well, it's pretty similar odds for PrizePicks, but the line is a full point lower. So, I know, "Okay, if I'm going to play something on better, it should be the under here as opposed to the over because my line is a full

[07:10] point higher than PrizePicks." So, when you pair this math together [music] and taking advantage of the profit boost as well, this becomes even more profitable. And that's how I'm getting these stats, right? You can see I've got 26.6

[07:23] expected value, and 83% of these plays nearly, I'm going ahead and I'm actually beating [music] the CLV. So, you can see prime example here. I use my $10 free bet, I put together these three plays on Sleeper, I walk away with $37. If I

[07:37] didn't use Sleeper because maybe these plays weren't the most profitable out there, I would have not had this chance to get the $37. But when you have free want to take advantage of those because those will counteract the fact that

[07:50] Underdog might have slightly better odds if you're getting a 30% profit boost or especially if you're getting free picks. This is another one with Sleeper, for example, right? You can see we won $64 on this, and we got a 30% profit boost

[08:04] here. So, 247 was the original line, we got it 321. We hit all of [music] these. That makes up for the fact that maybe these odds were slightly better maybe specifically looking at this one, right? Like Ben Sheppard threes, it was just

[08:19] slightly better odds over on FanDuel, for example, to make this play, but because I'm getting that 30% profit boost, I put it on here. And the last thing I want to point out here is the record, right? So, you can see I'm 78

[08:32] and 164 and then 22. [music] So, I have a losing record with DFS, and the majority of the time, 99.999% of people are going to have losing records with DFS because they're parlays in a sense, right? At at bare minimum, you're doing

[08:47] two plays, and you're going to typically have, you know, worse than 50/50 odds, so therefore over the long run, you're going to lose more than you win. But it doesn't matter because these 78 and the profit from it, especially when you take

[09:00] [music] Is outweighing the losses that we're here. So, you can see this play that we lost for $10. [music] Okay. Now, we win this play, right? So, we are one and one here. So, you would think, "Okay, we

[09:14] went 50% between these two plays, but we are now up $67 here because we won it $77 here, right? So, this was a plus 770 play. So,

[09:26] because of that, we can now lose our next six plays, and we [music] still are going to be $7 ahead when it comes to this. And most of the time if you're doing two to three-man plays, you really only need to win one in every four or

[09:39] one in every five to actually come out on top. If you want to try Odds Jam out for yourself, there's going to be a link in the description for you to try this out and get a 7-day free trial. Again, I highly recommend you just turn off your

[09:53] brain, you take a handful of plays each day, and then you compare that to what you're getting right now going off of bottle knowledge and gut feelings and discord cappers. If you have any questions about this, let me know in the

[10:05] answer them for you. Make sure you subscribe for more videos like this. I subscribe for more videos like this. I appreciate you guys watching the video.