Roulette Recovery Math Exposed
49sReveals the harsh recovery requirements behind a high-coverage roulette system, making viewers question its viability.
▶ Play Clip"Delivers exactly what the title promises: a live review of two roulette systems with honest analysis."
This live stream reviews two roulette betting systems from CEG: the California Cross Stitch and the Triple Sphincter Clench. The host analyzes their structure, expected losses, and recovery mechanics, while also discussing casino comps and warning against scam artists.
System has a $1,500 buy-in with $300 bets (5 bullets), covering six whacks on the wheel.
Casinos offer comps (complimentaries) typically 20% of expected loss, but playing for comps is not worthwhile due to high expected losses.
At $300 per spin and 60 spins/hour, expected loss is $900/hour, yielding $180 in comps if playing four hours you'd earn $720 but likely lose $3,600.
Rated C due to high bankroll requirement and grinding; recovery requires 5-15 spins per whack.
Three-step parlay system: bet $75 on 15 numbers straight up, then parlay winnings to a dozen, then even money.
Host prefers systems like Ride or Die and Hopscotch for their variance, noting they allow bigger wins when lucky.
No system guarantees consistent wins; high coverage systems win 95% of sessions but losses wipe out gains.
Chris Mitchell sells a worthless Martingale variant called 'Mitchell Gale'; host advises against paying for such systems.
The host rates the California Cross Stitch as a C and the Triple Sphincter Clench as a B, emphasizing that no system beats roulette long-term. He warns against paying for scams and recommends free resources like his channel.
What is the buy-in and bet size for California Cross Stitch?
$1,500 buy-in, $300 per bet (5 bullets).
02:16
How many whacks does California Cross Stitch have?
Six whacks.
03:49
What percentage of expected loss do casinos typically give back as comps?
About 20%.
09:19
How many spins are needed to recover from a $300 loss on California Cross Stitch?
Between 5 and 15 spins, depending on the hits (5 wins on black 14 or 15 wins on red).
07:38
What is the starting bet for Triple Sphincter Clench?
$75 on 15 numbers straight up.
14:27
What rating did the host give Triple Sphincter Clench?
B.
25:28
What is the host's opinion of Chris Mitchell's roulette systems?
They are worthless, just a Martingale variant called 'Mitchell Gale'.
26:38
Comps are not worth it
Highlights that playing for comps leads to larger losses than the comps' value.
04:56Variance improves short-term odds
Adding variance increases chance of being ahead in the short run.
12:11No consistent winning system
Emphasizes that all systems eventually lose; high win rate systems still suffer rare big losses.
17:34Scam artist warning
Directly calls out Chris Mitchell as a scam, advising viewers not to pay for worthless systems.
26:38[00:58] people thank you everybody for being patient I had some problems starting this stream today I think the problems were with the streaming software uh still learning the ropes on
[01:11] this stuff but hopefully you guys will get a So gonna wait for some people to trickle in because
[01:26] obviously starting the stream 25 minutes late is going to cause some problems but hopefully we get some people to join
[01:38] but I will start relatively soon can you guys all hear me if you can uh drop a comment in the
[02:16] reviewing this roulette system this system is called California this system is called California cross stitch another is from General reaction hey member thank you so much it is called California crosstitch
[02:29] much it is called California crosstitch $1,500 buy and $300 average bet that's five bullets so very big system well [Music]
[02:57] shoot so pretty big system you bet on black 60 let's try system you bet on black 60 let's try that actually red
[03:10] 160 and then $10 of equity on most of these black
[03:25] have 140 of equity on the black numbers and 160 of equity on the red numbers very large
[03:49] coverage of the wheel six wax you can see the wax wheel six wax you can see the wax here and almost $16 per spin here and almost $16 per spin expected
[04:15] if you have five bullets you leave when you're done when you're out of bullets but I understand cutting your losses if you have uh two wax in a
[04:39] number you win $20 black numbers of course you have $20 black numbers of course you have four wax the 24 the 33 and 35 and any playing with
[04:56] with so uh it's a very large system that it's good for comps but I really don't believe in but I really don't believe in comps I don't believe in playing for
[05:16] comps because of the requirement that casinos have for you to play ex uh you know for four hours a day here's a whack right
[05:30] there because of the requirement of the number of hours you're wanted to play number of hours you're wanted to play per going to help you all that much uh you are going to most likely lose way more
[05:45] than what you make in comps unless you get really
[06:00] oh this video is currently set as private no needs to be
[06:18] there no way what's going on now what's the te we would walk
[06:35] really excited I thought you were gonna just drive home that $300 I thought you show them how to do it we did do this on patreon by the way patreon how do that down below in the description um I literally got smack
[07:02] row t out of and just I they theong they put you in theet at I
[07:14] theet at I [Music] that you have not enough money that you're
[07:26] earning when you hit you have to hit your big winner which is 14 black numbers you have to hit that five
[07:38] five times in order to recover from a whack and you do have the $20 wins if you hit red and to hit the Reds you have to hit red and to hit the Reds you have to hit that what 15 times to make up for a $300
[07:51] that what 15 times to make up for a $300 loss so somewhere between 15 and five spins you need to recover so somewhere in the middle is is like 10 spins we have 10 spins and we've already been whacked two
[08:06] been whacked two times so that's a bit of an indicator of what you can expect from this system again we are reviewing this system live at least this is my first time watching this video California
[08:23] time watching this video California cross stitch it's a $1,500 buying $300 bet and you have six wax four in the field and whatever number of zeros that you have so we've just gotten whacked for a
[08:38] have so we've just gotten whacked for a third time out of what 11 comp system if you're not familiar with comps comps is short for complimentaries
[08:52] this is what you get back from American casinos I think especially Las Vegas I don't know how easy it is to get comps out outside of Las Vegas I've only received comps in Las Vegas um
[09:06] but casinos have been pretty stingy with the comps in the last like 15 years or the comps in the last like 15 years or so so the way comps work is you have an
[09:19] expected loss per loss per hour and whatever your expected loss is you get a rebate of 20% typically somewhere between I think
[09:32] 20 and 20% um so with this system you're betting $300 per spin you have an expected loss of let's say 16
[09:44] let's say $15 per spin if you're spinning the roulette wheel 60 times in an hour what is that 30 time 30 that's about $900 an hour in expect losses so that's
[10:00] one spin per minute that's probably pretty generous but let's just say that that is true 60 spins per hour that's one spin a minute
[10:13] that would be 30 time 30 which is 900 in expected losses you would get expected losses you would get back $180 in comps so if you gamble back $180 in comps so if you gamble using the system and you gamble for 4
[10:28] using the system and you gamble for 4 hours 4 time 180 would be 720 so you would earn $720 in comps per day from this system but you would at the end of the day you'd probably be down around
[10:43] $3,600 so uh you are going to pay for this system out of your losses if you're trying to play for
[10:58] them in the the comments I see we got nine people 11 people now on YouTube but overall I mean it's not a bad system
[11:10] it's just a lot of money and uh a lot of grinding I think i' and uh a lot of grinding I think i' would probably give this a c a would probably give this a c a plum it's just a lot of money
[11:26] really really spread out your bets like this I'm a fan of systems where there's a lot of variance in your payouts the variance really does increase your chance of being
[11:41] increase your chance of being ahead over a short period of time um you know I'm not saying it changes your expected expected loss
[11:58] possibly come up ahead if you had zero variance with an expected loss you're way to improve your
[12:11] to improve your chances of coming out ahead is to add chances of coming out ahead is to add variance so let's see what they gave the
[12:26] system at this level it's if you lose one now you're playing how many catch up five to 15 spins to catch up I give it a c yeah I give it a plum only because um I
[12:40] don't know why but for some reason like I thought this was going to do a lot better um five or six wax a lot of roulette do like that I mean the return five of those hits make up for one wax I think if you have I thought this would
[12:54] be good six wax I think a comparable system would be romanovski or Romanos system would be romanovski or Romanos I with romanoski you have uh four wax in the field and then either one or two wax being the
[13:07] zeros that one has even distribution that one you bet three units on the on two different dozens and then one unit each on two corners within the uncovered
[13:19] dozen you have four wax within the one through 36 and then you have either one or two wax in in addition to that being being zeros um that one has even distribution so you
[13:34] bet eight units and you win one this one you're betting whatever um $300 if your you're betting whatever um $300 if your unit is
[13:47] $10 you are betting 30 units and you're winning either two units or six units either 20 or 60 so that's why the recovery is so bad so let's look why the recovery is so bad so let's look at the next system that was Cal
[14:02] California cross stitch and now we're going to look at TSC which is triple going to look at TSC which is triple triple sphincter
[14:27] so I'm G to fast forward so this one you bet 15 numbers forward so this one you bet 15 numbers straight up $5 each that's a $75
[14:51] hilarious so this a $75 bet if you hit that's a I watched part of this video already but here we do hit you win 105
[15:05] already but here we do hit you win 105 so on the table now he has
[15:17] $180 and then he's going to take that 180 and put it on a dozen take their wins put it on AZ oh you me nope oh that's this is really
[15:29] you me nope oh that's this is really this is yeah this Isel if you lose you go back to the beginning so Eddie asks Eddie Alvarado asks what is my favorite system or what is the best system I can't really speak
[15:44] to what is it the best system I have favorite systems my favorite systems are ones where you generally lose a little bit of money and when you win when you get lucky you do parlay those wins into a
[16:01] much bigger win so there are systems like ride or die check my catalog go to Jack a.com and click on roulette I have a link to over 350 roulette systems that
[16:14] a link to over 350 roulette systems that have been mostly reviewed by uh you can sort that list of roulette systems by my rating the highest rating
[16:26] being a a great rout and amongst the top systems there I think you're going to find systems like Ry or die and Hopscotch uh there's
[16:40] like Ry or die and Hopscotch uh there's a couple more let's
[16:52] five A's and some of these kind of fluctuate weight depending on my mood but definitely the top ones are ride or die
[17:04] and Hopscotch um I I may not feel that these in chamba 2.0 but if you click on this link it'll show my review of those systems if you click on the title it'll show you
[17:20] click on the title it'll show you uh how ceg did with the system and a little bit of a summary on why I gave it an A and how the betting system works um but as far as winning
[17:34] consistently there's no system that you're going to win consistently I mean you can pick a system that is generally going to have you come out ahead but it's not a given that you're going
[17:50] but it's not a given that you're going to win like you can win 95% of the time to win like you can win 95% of the time if you want to win $200 $300 a day 95% of the time that's something that's easy to do for sure but that
[18:06] 5% you know that's one out of every 20 sessions you're going to lose more than what you've won in general if you're fine with that kind of system you can pick a system that has High
[18:21] coverage you know something like romanoski romanovski um you can pick something like TIE fighter something that has High coverage and then try to reach your goal you'll be
[18:36] successful most of the time just know that the losses are inevitable if you're going to keep playing and your losses will wipe you will wipe you out and uh that goes for you Scott
[18:49] mzelle as well you want to make ,000 a day okay that uh there's no consistent way of beating roulette that's going to be a longtime
[19:02] roulette that's going to be a longtime winner so at Jack a.com where I have that catalog of 350 roulette systems I
[19:39] romanovski romanovski so here's a system where you're betting eight units to win one if you want to multiply this by four you can win $100 at a time and you're going to be
[19:52] to be successful uh whatever 30 2 divided by 37 or 32 divid by 38% of the
[20:09] like these kinds of systems where you well he actually starts with a very high well he actually starts with a very high bet he's betting $75 on 15 numbers when you win you win 105 then you parlay that $180 which is
[20:25] 105 then you parlay that $180 which is the $75 that you bet plus your $105 win you parlay that into a dozen bet if you hit that you're going to win another 360 and you'll have
[20:42] think he he bets it yeah you bet it straight up on an even money bet so you straight up on an even money bet so you start with a $75 bet and you take start with a $75 bet and you take three spins to turn that into about uh
[20:57] three spins to turn that into about uh over a, so was it 540 you'll have 1080 over a, so was it 540 you'll have 1080 so you'll win
[21:11] 1,05 from that $75 so I mean not too horrible so he lost his pressed bed there but can you guys hear the video It's supposed to be streaming the audio of the video directly to you guys
[21:27] instead of trying pick it up on my mic I'm just curious about that I am still learning this streaming software so would appreciate the
[21:47] you appreciate the kind of the online casinos to do some live streaming got that kind of fell through
[22:00] so I might be just independently looking for a site where I can play online and stream that to you guys I do want to play for like real money show you
[22:12] guys me playing for real money not just talk playing on apps and is not the audio is not coming through let's try this one more
[22:26] let's try this one more time
[22:43] let me try this one more time oh no share a tab Chrome Chrome specifically and I'll maybe I'll do that next
[22:56] do that next time if if I want to share the
[23:13] start with 600 step three pick a one to one bet with so yeah this is a three-step system it's actually not bad I think I would give this system a b I definitely don't like betting 15
[23:29] numbers straight up uh you can bet instead of that you can bet 12 units on a dozen and three units on a street that is not covered that'll turn 15
[23:41] individual bets into just two you know and I I don't know if it's a big deal to dealers to be dealing with that like personally if I were a dealer
[23:53] I'd rather deal with two bets than 15 even if the payouts are 15 even if the payouts are different I mean if you think about it making 15 bets is 15 different transactions when you
[24:09] hit you have to scoop 14 losers and you have to pay the winner 35 to one like I feel like definitely betting 18
[24:23] numers straight up is less preferable than betting any even money bet even money bet because you're either going to take one bet or you're going to pay one bet even money but that's just
[24:43] time I tried to do this live stream review of roulette systems I was actually editing the data file that I used to update my website I'm not going to do that I think it would really slowed down the
[24:56] stream and kind of was a bit of a drag especially when figure out why but let's see what they gave the system I think I'm G to give the system a
[25:28] system a B for right this is a good play so let's give it a rating on three one two three bam okay uh EtG people the people
[25:42] think you could do this with dollars instead of nickel 75 bucks do $15 perfect you could do $120 DJ version with the EtG I feel like that's way to go so EtG version if you're paying single dollar units you're G to win 200
[25:56] single dollar units you're G to win 200 at that
[26:08] is a, and5 so if you divide by five that's so much okay guys uh I think that's GNA be much okay guys uh I think that's GNA be it for today sorry about the
[26:25] before I go have I heard of Chris Mitchell yes I have heard of Christopher Mitchell he is well I'm not going to go too much into detail but he's a
[26:38] guy who is selling roulette systems from what I understand uh I don't think there's any Merit to any of the systems that he's trying to sell it sounds like what he's trying to sell is just a version of Martin Gale he calls it
[26:51] Mitchell Gale um where you just double your bets Gale um where you just double your bets when you lose and and add a little cream on top so if you were to bet $100 on a spin and you lost then
[27:06] bet $100 on a spin and you lost then you'd bet 100 or 210 or 220 on the next spin if you lost that you would bet instead of two 20 you might bet instead of two 20 you might bet 250 um ceg did a live stream David was
[27:22] talking about him in a live stream recently uh I mean I'm not I wouldn't well do I think he's a scam artist
[27:37] that but I will say that whatever he's trying to sell you is going to be trying to sell you is going to be worthless um you can figure out some stupid system like Mitchell Gale on your own you don't need to pay a guy to do
[27:50] own you don't need to pay a guy to do that um I saw in addition that um I saw in addition to what David was saying about him someone created a fake Christopher Mitchell YouTube account and has been
[28:05] posting some of his videos they've been reposting his videos with just overlays and some commentary over his videos uh kind
[28:17] commentary over his videos uh kind of uh just making fun of him or mocking of uh just making fun of him or mocking him yeah I would not pay him to teach me how to play roulette like you can learn everything you need to
[28:32] know about roulette through my Channel for free or through ceg both are good resources there's a ton of other roulet uh content creators out there I try to inject a little bit of
[28:49] there I try to inject a little bit of my math expertise into my videos so hopefully you get a little bit more educational value out of my videos some of the other guys you know they're just spinning the wheel and betting and they
[29:02] don't really provide a lot of context about whether you know something is good whether something can be done differently they're just PR presenting systems and showing you the results not really doing much analysis
[29:17] but uh Christopher Mitchell says he's the uh Christopher Mitchell says he's the goat yeah he goat yeah he would yeah I haven't
[29:29] seeing anything from him that would make me anything from him that would make me think he is anything else but just some goofball who makes stupid roulette bets he flashes a lot of cash in his
[29:43] videos I don't I wouldn't say that that those are winnings probably just pulling it out of the bank and posting on YouTube but whatever if
[29:59] he's just trying to get views I think it would be pretty easy to get views uh if you're just making false claims about how much money you can win there's several uh YouTubers out there or instagrammers maybe not YouTubers but
[30:14] I see it a lot on like Instagram and sometimes on Tik Tok but yeah it's just garbage uh so thanks everyone for coming
[30:26] and I don't know I'm gonna maybe start doing these a little bit more regularly today I was experiencing some problems with the streaming software but uh hope with the streaming software but uh hope you guys enjoy it uh and I will see you
[30:40] guys later always gamble responsibly never play triple zero let and peace out never play triple zero let and peace out donkeys
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