NFP Aftermath Trading Guide — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[02:01] >> Ladies and gentlemen, may I have your attention, please? may I have your attention, please? The show starts in

[02:15] 9 8 6 5 3 2

[02:30] 1 Go. Uh welcome to the live show. Last week we had the NFP

[02:43] um on Friday, and this changes a lot of things. And if you look at this, I'm actually on Forex Factory right now. You will see that You will see that the previous is 179.

[02:56] That is the previous NFP. Um Um forecast is 85. lower. And look at the actual, 172.

[03:12] 172 is far like far like This is almost doubling. the forecast. The actual is almost

[03:26] double the forecast, which is which signals a very strong signal the dollar. Which signals a strength in the dollars. That is why on Friday we can see that if I go to the DXY

[03:41] very um sharp pull up. I'm going to go to the 4-hour time frame right now. That's how we had this very That's how we had this very um sharp

[03:57] That's all I had it. Now, initially my plan was that, okay, we had a break of plan was that, okay, we had a break of structure right here. Okay? That I was basically expecting to see price

[04:09] to come all the way down because I've been bullish on the on the DX what I like I I've said. I've a drop down into this zone But, that didn't happen.

[04:21] Um, as the news came out, if the forecast was actually right, we'll have seen that drop down into this pocket before going up. Well, because of that news, and that is why on NFP days you should just keep

[04:36] away from trading. Or on new day, just, you know, just day because you can never you never can tell what will happen. Just look at what tell what will happen. Just look at what the forecast is saying and what the real

[04:48] value came out to be. This disrupted the market and you can see the market is up. On the general, if you look at if you go back, you can see I've been very bullish on the on the

[05:01] to to go all the way to to this top. This This is what I I've been expecting. If you guys know that, throughout the year, we should see the dollar climbing up to this very high.

[05:18] But, in the short term, I was looking for a pullback to for a pullback to enable me to enable me catch a trade into this region and that

[05:33] from here? What we do from here is very Uh, and before we go to that, please go to the comments if you're attending this show. Just go to the comments. If you're attending this show for the first night,

[05:45] already in the um comment section of my regulars. So, what you do is just go straight to the comment section and tell me the city you are attending the city and the country you are attending the live from. For For

[06:00] example, I just type the city and the country I am in right now. country, and um let me know where you are attending the live from, okay?

[06:24] Okay, shoutout to um Real. Real Man 123 in Abuja. Then, we have Allah

[06:37] Olanishego from Ile-Ife in Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Nigeria. Then, we have Leo Sammy in Lagos. Chiamaka

[06:50] in Port Harcourt. The Guru, I see you here. Yeah, I see you almost every every time we go live. You're welcome to the show. Indubue should be in Abuja, if I'm not If I'm not wrong.

[07:04] Or just tell me where you are attending again from so I can have it in mind. They have Jessica Judith is in Anambra State.

[07:16] Welcome to the show. Christopher

[07:30] more people coming. Um we have Eddyvick in uh Abuja in Calabar, Nigeria.

[07:43] Warri, my project my project hobbies in Warri, Nasarawa, Suleja, Limi, Dives here, FCT, I think I got that right. So, welcome to the show. Let's get back to

[07:57] the charts. Okay. So, this is what we have, okay? When I have this, so how do we now play this game? Initially, like I said, well, I was looking for a drawdown to the this region, okay?

[08:11] Before we take a long position. But, since we have this now, this is the target we're looking at. This target over here is all we're looking at, this particular

[08:25] one. This might just simply mean that we might not get back to this region, since we now have this new break. So, what are we what are we looking forward to is this. We've had we had this

[08:38] um break here, this change of character over here. This was mean this was meant to be the change of character to bring us down from here, okay? But, we didn't get that. So, we now have a new

[08:55] new change of character this way. clear on the DXY, but on the euro uh and GBP is is much clearer. So, what

[09:09] uh and GBP is is much clearer. So, what should I expect? I expect this is where okay? Then, once they start coming down, if it does start coming down, once they start coming down this way,

[09:24] then I can now draw my Fibonacci from here, this bottom to here. And I should expect to take a long position from this golden zone region.

[09:39] take a long position from. If I remove this Fibonacci tool, you'll also see that we have um a supply zone a demand zone rather a

[09:51] um a supply zone a demand zone rather a 4-hour demand zone from here. you should expect to start looking for a

[10:03] a opportunity confirmation entry to take a long position to a target here. This can actually just go ahead and do But, when we start when we start seeing this thing coming down

[10:16] and get to this region, then that is the place to look for a Sometimes I do trade this down, but it's a more riskier trade. The best um line of action just to wait for it to

[10:29] come into this pocket before going up. Now, now this is the DXY, okay? I don't trade the DXY, but DXY give me context to on how to trade the euro, the GBP, gold. We're going to talk about gold today because I took a gold I took a

[10:43] trade on gold and I'll show you how that how that trade played out. Now, let's go back to Let's now go to the euro. So, in the euro um is euro correlates inversely.

[10:58] Euro correlates closely is the closest inverse Okay, so whatever you expect the DXY to do, you should expect the opposite from the euro. So, what do we have again? Now, in the same way

[11:13] I was what I was looking forward to last week was this. I was looking forward to and I share here, of course. I was looking forward to this price coming into this region. This golden zone at the demand zone we have here.

[11:27] I was expecting that okay, if price comes to this region, okay? Now, look for each a confirmation entry to go lower. But, again, price was on its way and the news came

[11:42] Let me Let me say it again. I was expecting this to keep on going this way till we get here. We're not have what? A confirmation entry and we cannot go actually my target here. This line is my target.

[11:59] The news also That's why news, you know, make this increasing. The NFP news on Friday. Because it came out this way, it was very bullish on the dollar. And since Euro is opposite correlated,

[12:15] Euro is opposite correlated, the price just dropped immediately. here. Okay? coming all the way to this high, it dropped from here. And what happened is

[12:28] a change of character here. So, from here, change of character here. So, from here, we don't need to start looking for price to come to this region. Okay? All we'll start looking for is how

[12:42] do we not trade it down to this particular region. value gap here. It's trading to this fair value gap

[12:57] >> the I am bearish on the Euro. You can see I've been saying that I expect Euro to go all the way down at least to this >> [clears throat]

[13:12] A change of character here. So, the same thing similar to what we with the um um with the

[13:31] take it all the way down to this region. Okay? You can see my golden my golden zone is just here. just here. It's from here.

[13:43] That is the OTE. This where I should be expecting to take an entry from. 4-hour time frame right now. So, I can I want to get a broader

[13:58] um demand zone. So, a broader supply zone right there. So, this is from here. It's actually the supply zone. And you can see the the supply zone aligns very well

[14:12] with the golden zone. So, this simply just tells me that if price comes to this region, okay? Then confirmation entry here, I look for

[14:24] entry from this region. And go all the way down. And go all the way down. And this here is going to be my target.

[14:36] to re-access. Okay? But if it's not going up from this where I take an entry from. This region over here is where I take an entry. An entry from. And this will be my first

[14:51] target. This now will be my first target. This will now be This is This is will be the target I will not be going for if I take an entry here. Okay. So, going back to the 1-hour, let's see.

[15:07] Let's see. Now, this might take the whole of the week to to come into this Okay? Uh which means that we might see opportunity to trade this higher. Once we are sure once the market showed sign

[15:21] that is going up or might see opportunity to trade it higher to this region before taking a short position from here.

[15:36] go now to the 15 minutes, okay? So, on the 15 minutes, what can you see So, on the 15 minutes, what can you see on the 15 minutes? On the 15 minutes, um the market structure is not really well defined.

[15:50] Um Yes, we have a a break here. Uh let me try this minute break. So, we have a a break here.

[16:11] Which I will see extend out to all the way to this region. uh the structure here is not really well defined. If I go to the 5 minutes, we can see some definition, okay? Definition

[16:26] and all that. But, on the 15 minutes, it's not well defined. What I would have loved to see is that we see this and that break down this way. Then, we can now break it.

[16:40] Okay? Then, that gives This now gives me a proper way a proper way to take a long position from to take a long position from from this region.

[16:54] long position from here. If we have this break, comes down this way, take out this one, forms that change of character form a change of character here. change of character here, then we can now take this from here.

[17:07] But, anyways, this is ultimately where I I I have to just wait to take a position from. I'm just looking for justification to long this um trade. We just have to wait for this to um to play out.

[17:21] Other things that can be done, this is more idea, this is textbook. Textbook, clear, take this position. But, if you don't see this, you might just want to wait for the next break.

[17:34] break. Okay? The next break above

[18:04] break above this region. Maybe this way. Before we start taking positions to the upside. I want to look at one more thing. Let me see if I can do it here.

[18:55] If I get more information, I'll just drop it on Discord. Okay. So, this is the um British pounds. British pound um For British pounds, we have a tap into

[19:10] We didn't get that on the euro, but for the British pound we got we got to tap into this demand zone. This actually more in hindsight. It wasn't clear from then, but now it looks

[19:23] it looks clear. So, we have these, we tap into this pocket, okay? And what happened? We had a break a change of character here. Okay? Lower time frame. Then retracement into

[19:36] this zone again. Into the golden zone of this movement now. And from here we had another break of structure here. So, in the short term um the target is simply

[19:48] this this daily demand zone. That is the target in the short term. might not be interested in what happens afterwards. Maybe we can go lower, but at least when we get to that point

[20:02] thinking about it. Okay? It's the target is just just simply this region.

[20:14] this this particular low. So, how do we look for trade here? From this one now this is the top.

[20:31] now. Um so, from here Um so, from here this is the break we had here.

[20:44] So, from here this is the break we have here. Then this is the top of that particular break.

[20:56] So, there's no I'm not sure yet that this has started going up, okay? here. I'm not certainly sure. Um this might still just go down more. Okay, but from here if I draw this now, you also see that my

[21:11] golden zone just aligned perfectly. Aligned here. This that becomes the um the golden zone that we have. um the golden zone that we have. And if I go ahead and also draw that

[21:25] And if I go ahead and also draw that supply zone. Supply zone is from here here, but I'm just going to leave it all the way to this region, so. the way to this region, so. This becomes my 4-hour

[21:38] um supply zone. You can see overlaps again with the golden zone. So, back to 1-hour time frame, what do I back to 1-hour time frame, what do I expect again is movement to this region.

[21:53] This where I look for a change of character to take a short position. First target is this region. And second target is this region. This is just a simple probably for for GBP. So, again, um

[22:11] you can just simply just wait to take the trade from here because this is a high probability trade. High probability.

[22:23] you can go to a smaller time frame, like a 15 minutes, and now look for how do you um take trades, especially if we have this. If we have this,

[22:38] if we have this, let me just clean up all these ones.

[23:01] then a candle goes above. This is confirmation. So, we can now can I take a trade this way to take it higher.

[23:15] from here to take it higher. this region. So, this is one way to go about it. Or but if you don't get this,

[23:29] it just best to come to simply wait for price to find its way here before taking this a longer is more boring, but it's high probability. Okay. So, let's get let's go to

[23:43] Australian dollar. You can see guys that everything is just looks similar because it's just US dollar pair trade. Australian dollar too is the same thing. I was looking to take an entry here. But they didn't get it. Where is not the new

[23:56] target? Target is here. And the same thing we have a change of character here because of this news candle that we have have here. So, there's not different again. I'm

[24:10] just going to do the exactly the same thing. Pull my Fibonacci from here down where so this becomes my pocket region for the golden zone. You can see here. From here this way

[24:25] From here this way uh becomes the golden zone. uh so this becomes more tricky. We have um

[24:46] 4-hour time frame. Okay, it's not clear on the 4-hour. Okay, it's not clear on the 4-hour. On the 1-hour, it looks clearer. now from here. So, here we have a 1-hour

[25:06] Okay, a 1-hour supply zone. Okay, a 1-hour supply zone. And over here, we have another I'm taking it This is actually more like This is more like 2-hour supply zone.

[25:18] But, I'm going to call it 1-hour, okay? 1-hour supply zone. And this is the golden zone. Now, so, we should expect price to

[25:31] um find its way all the way to this side and go down. Now, there's a higher probability Now, there's a higher probability that this is just giving us liquidity,

[25:46] okay? And our price is going to come all the and take out this

[25:59] this fair value gap here, this imbalance that we have here. Price can just come and take it out. So, entry. If you're taking a risk entry, this becomes the

[26:13] um the target. the target. This is the entry, the block for entry. So, if you've taken this trade, it'll be a short position from here.

[26:26] Target will be at this high. Now, this is not longer confirmation entry. This is risk entry because you're waiting you're you're clearing the high, here. So, this gives a three points

[26:39] 3. 23. This would be a trade 23. This would be a trade I will gladly take once price start The second way is just simply to wait for to see a confirmation. Okay,

[26:52] confirmation might just come into this region and does this and, you know, this is from where you now take a trade entry. So, this is um Euro GBP USD. So, gold. Okay? Somebody Somebody type Euro USD. So,

[27:09] I've done Euro USD. You can come back to this video and watch it again. I have done it. I've done GBP as well. I'm doing Australian I've done Australian dollar. And what we want to look at right now is

[27:21] um gold. Gold is the trade that I got last week. So, this is the only trade I took um last week that was really good. So, and what I get here I got a 3R trade from gold here.

[27:37] Um Let me explain this and also explain what we should expect. Okay? So, I've been quite I've been quite

[27:49] um um if you watch my I've been I've not here. Okay? Because here on the 1-hour is a break of structure.

[28:03] This this line here is a break of structure. But on the weekly time frame, this is a demand zone that gold tapped into and is expected to keep going high. But if you look at the broader macroeconomics um

[28:18] macroeconomics because of the news we have also meant to be going lower because gold is inversely correlated with the US dollar. Not perfectly inversely, but it's inversely correlated. If the US

[28:33] dollar is going high, many things are going to start going low, even the stock market. If I go to the S&P 500, for example, you will see that it also dropped. Okay. So,

[28:47] thinking? It's just simple structure entry, structure entry. So, we had a break here for gold. This break led me to mark out this golden zone

[29:01] over here. This is where I expected the the the um price to come to for the take this. But, after this break which was not significant. Then, we have another one here.

[29:16] Now, because we have now have this one, what happens is that what I what I had expected was that, okay, because of this one, that came with it, the supply zone rather came with it.

[29:29] here. So, I was expecting price to come here and go lower. But, price had came here and did a sweep. You can see this sweep and did a sweep. You can see this sweep here.

[29:43] confirmation entry. Let me go down to the lower time frame. This became my confirmation entry. I did I did this on the 5 minutes. So, we had what we had here. We had um a change of character here,

[29:58] okay, after this sweep. Then, I simply did a Fibonacci from here to the bottom, to this low here. And 62 was my entry. Okay? From 62 was my entry and target

[30:14] was here. And that just played out nicely. Just following structure and confirmation entry. That is just a structure confirmation entry is what gives to this.

[30:27] rise to this trade. And this this trade took long. This is um took long. This is um um 1 2 3 4. It took 4 days to play out.

[30:43] what is the what do I now look forward to gold um for this particular week? I'm going to close some of these things.

[30:57] again, guys, is the same thing. Um I'm still going to take this now as my target here. And for the short term,

[31:09] we're looking at this particular low. I don't know if this has started going but this is now the low that I should have in mind. So, I'm going to go to the 4-hour right now because I want to get a bigger demand zone. So, on the 4 hours,

[31:22] you see here that this is our supply zone. When I say demand, I I sometimes supply. But, this is supply. Supply zone is above. Demand zone is below. So, this is a 4-hour um

[31:37] demand and supply zone, rather. So, when you see this, what I expect is price goes all the way to this zone and all the way down.

[31:51] demand zone. I just use the golden zone as confluence. So, if I take it from this top here all the way to this bottom, okay? You can see the golden zone is slightly above. Maybe because of the

[32:05] sweep we had. So, the the golden zone also aligns with I but I'm just going to leave the demand zone. As a matter of fact, I can just go ahead and put an alert here. So, I'm alerted

[32:17] when price get there. So, this is where I should be looking for a short position on gold for to take this lower. You just have to be patient and wait. This can this week if it doesn't happen, okay? It might happen later in the week

[32:32] okay? But, you just have to wait. And whenever it happens, it gives an opportunity. Part of trading is just being patient and waiting for things to being patient and waiting for things to happen. Then, we're not to get trade.

[32:45] So, back to the 1-hour. Um here. let's now see I'm on the 15-minute to see if there's opportunity to take a

[33:01] trade. Okay. So, if you look at this, um if we have price go above this, this line.

[33:17] have price start going up Okay? Then, this gives me opportunity to take a short position to take a long

[33:30] And my target is going to be here. Then, from here, look for confirmation entry. From to get here. So, this is one trade. This one is a higher risk, okay? And this one is a lower risk.

[33:45] Well, if price is going to go higher, it can as well um why is it higher risk is because price can just keep keep doing this and just keep going down and not go up. Okay? In trading,

[33:59] it's always um you you look for high probability. There's that if you take a trade, 100% is going to be a win. We play the game of probability. What is

[34:12] the highest probability that it happens? That is why uh we we we try to target a risk-reward ratio of three. Because even if you lose half of the in profit. As a matter of fact, even if you lose 60% of the trade, you'll still

[34:26] be in profit if you are targeting a risk-reward ratio of three. So, this again is my play for gold. If I see higher above here, I'm taking a long position. This might just be the trade

[34:39] the trade for for next for next week. In terms of news, because news is very important. Okay? Um news tells you, "Okay, if I am in a trade going well already,

[34:55] if news is coming, I can do either two things. One is to Okay? Two is to put a stop uh is to move my stop loss to

[35:10] break to break even. So, that even that trade goes against me, then I'm out. But, if the market if the trade goes if the news goes in my favor, then I hit my profits I hit my take profits much uh faster.

[35:25] not already in a trade, then you might just want to stay out we'll have this week, the one we should be concerned about is Let me just go to um Forex Factory does that well. So, a month I can see on Monday,

[35:41] the market is clean. Nothing is no news is happening. And I only select the news that has to do with the currency pair that I trade. Okay? So, Tuesday is clean. But, Wednesday we'll have the CPI. CPI is the Consumer Price Index. If

[35:56] the CPI comes out hot, it might be that the dollar will even because the dollar has just been bullish based on the news that are coming out. to show um on on um

[36:13] on Wednesday. In on on CPI. Again, this one

[36:25] Again, this one E for dollar is Hold on. Let me go back.

[36:37] on Thursday. I don't know why they like come out twice. Core CPI month-over-month is also coming out and the euro euro um this similar to their CPI, but you shouldn't be much

[36:52] Euro doesn't give out as much impact as we have with the dollar. So, these are the two news you should be aware I should be aware of this week. So, guys, um

[37:05] I think it's about it. Thank you for attending. video explain how someone can read the news or more about fundamentals?" This

[37:20] is called macroeconomics. Okay, I'll think about it. In the in the course at fibi.com, I explained it very well over there. Maybe I'll also do a YouTube video explaining

[37:34] explaining just talk about macroeconomics like if you watch Bitcoin is being falling and saying that we're expecting Bitcoin to go up in price. No, it's not

[37:50] Like I said, I'm looking forward to Bitcoin I'm looking forward to Bitcoin going down to $44,000. Said it before. Um I remember when I said I'm going I'm expecting Bitcoin at 70k, one guy was

[38:03] telling me, "Guy, leave this thing that is going up from here." But, if you just look at macroeconomics, macroeconomics, it makes it really really clear that it is not simply the

[38:18] time for Bitcoin to go higher. So, Bitcoin maybe in 2 3 years from now. But, you want to start accumulating. the long term. You want to start accumulating. Want to start buying doing

[38:32] DCA once we hit the 50,000 level. month I buy a portion. Every month I buy a portion because of course, in 2 years from then you can just double your money because Bitcoin

[38:44] can get back to $120,000. So, but for now just um just hold off. Let it Let the market bleed. Let's Let's um once because right now interest rates I

[38:59] see interest rates they're going to start in raising interest rates. Once they start raising interest rates the market is going to drop further. That just the dollar is going to go higher

[39:11] and the Euro USD, Bitcoin, the rest is going to drop further. But, once they start cutting interest rates that is the time or once the CPI it starts giving you

[39:27] um it start giving start giving they're going to start cutting interest rates. That is when the accumulation should start. Accumulation over a long time

[39:41] start. Accumulation over a long time um is the way to go. So, yes, I'm going to consider that video and make it. To get to this code just go to febit.com course. Take my tutorials. You can join the

[39:56] Discord as well to get written updates. Okay, um that's about it. Bye everyone and have a successful trading week. We'll meet again tomorrow to talk about crypto markets Bitcoin in

[40:11] showing. Bye.