My Altcoin Portfolio Is Bleeding (I've Never Been More Confident)

[00:02] panic. My altcoin portfolio is absolutely bleeding. And I've got to be honest, I've never been more confident that the bull run is coming. Now, that I'm going to show you what everyone else is missing. This isn't the end of the

[00:15] bull market. This is a predictable liquidity shakeout kicked off by the TGA rebuild that we've been talking about since summer, accelerated by the Treasury step up in issuance that kicked off in early October and then even

[00:28] further accelerated and extended by the current government shutdown. And in this video I'll show you the exact data to prove it. Okay, so recently the TGA or the Treasury General Account crossed 1 trillion. And as we've talked about in

[00:40] government's piggy bank. And I've been talking about the TGA and why it would this past summer. And basically, I'd potentially uh just weak liquidity

[00:52] market in August and September where we could see just really weak price action in crypto. Now, what I didn't talk about and what I didn't anticipate was what would happen then after in October, which is sort of like this perfect storm

[01:06] of multiple events that have all come together to create this like mythic level weak liquidity in the market that we're currently seeing right now. First past videos, we had the step up in issuance from the Treasury that happened

[01:19] in early October. This is something that a lot of people missed, myself included, that further kind of exasperated the weak liquidity environment in the market. But as I had mentioned in those videos, by about midocctober, the global

[01:32] market plumbing should adapt to this extra issuance and it shouldn't be a problem. And therefore, late October, things should flip decisively bullish. At least that was what I had been saying up until this point. And the reason that

[01:44] I anticipated things to flip bullish in late October was a couple different things. For one, we had the rate cut in late October. Uh, which is bullish. Uh, for two, you had a lot of people that believed in the four-year cycle who were

[01:56] anticipating a parabolic runup into fall. Basically, you know, the way the stage where we should should see a parabolic runup in the markets. And because of that belief in the four-year cycle who I anticipated would come and

[02:11] frontr run the markets, buying up a ton of alts, buying up a ton of crypto, uh, hoping to frontr run that parabolic move up. But what we ended up seeing was almost the exact opposite play out where we had this insane liquidation event in

[02:24] crypto which in itself was sort of a perfect storm of multiple different events which I've talked about in past videos. And this just absolutely nuked crypto sentiment flipping a lot of those four-year cycle buyers into four-year

[02:37] cycle sellers. So what was a tailwind to the markets became a headwind to the markets. Now, on top of that, we had this government shutdown, which a lot of concerned about, myself included, because just most of us didn't

[02:50] anticipate that it would last that long. Uh, but what has ended up happening is this government shutdown has really dragged on a lot longer than most people anticipated. And because the government shutdown had dragged on for so long, it

[03:04] has started to massively impact the liquidity conditions in the market, which is why I highlighted that the TGA just hit 1 trillion. This is liquidity that should be pouring out into the market, but instead is getting piled up

[03:16] in the TGA account because you're seeing a lot less government spending due to the shutdown. Now, on top of all of these things, we had the Fed come out in late October and they did cut rates as anticipated. Uh, but one thing that

[03:30] Jerome Pal said really spooked the markets and honestly had an exasperated effect because of this the weak liquidity conditions in the market. And December rate cut where he said it's not a certainty. And basically up to this

[03:44] point, the market had been pricing in a December rate cut as certain. Like we in September. The odds were at like 90% plus. And then Jerome Pal comes in and says actually it's not a certainty that we're going to see that rate cut. And

[03:56] has been weak for months and months, people are like max fear. We had this crazy liquidation event that flipped all four-ear cycle sellers. This news really had an impact on the markets where we

[04:10] saw markets just absolutely nuke on these comments and actually put in a lot from the government shutdown, the TGA rebuild, the step up in issuance and everything else for the entire year of 2025 to generate a liquidity score month

[04:25] by month to show you exactly how abysmal conditions have been over the past few the way this liquidity score works is on a scale of 0 to 100. It's accounting for global liquidity, not just US-based liquidity. And 100 is like liquidity to

[04:41] the max, super bullish for the markets. And zero is like market apocalypse. And you can see in January the score was around 58, February around 64, March through May we're sitting in the 50s or the 40s. And then in summer we started

[04:55] to see the liquidity score tick down where June was 38, July was 28. And then in August the liquidity score absolutely dropped off a cliff. And if you remember hit a Bitcoin all-time high. And it was really that second half of August where

[05:09] things really fell off a cliff and just, you know, the whole market really dumped in a pretty horrifying uh way for those of us who were in the market. And then we saw in September the liquidity score dropped a little bit lower um as the TGA

[05:22] rebuild peaked and as the RRP buffer ran out. And this was supposed to be kind of Uh, and this is where most people expected by the end of September going into October, things should turn around. Uh, but as I mentioned, not a lot of

[05:37] people caught that step up in issuance, myself included, by the Treasury. And government shutdown would ultimately become uh going into October. But that's issuance happened in the first two weeks of October, which was pretty bad. And

[05:52] then we saw this government shutdown go on week after week after week. And basically because so much of our economy and so much of the markets are driven by government spending, this had a massive impact on total liquidity where October

[06:05] which I had accounted for a few months ago being the second worst month of the year actually flipped to becoming the single worst month in terms of liquidity by a long shot of the entire year sitting at a score of 10 uh versus

[06:19] the scores for November and December, I wanted to show you this chart so you can wanted to show you this chart so you can wrap your head around exactly why the markets are so dependent on government spending. This is the total spending of

[06:31] the first 39 presidents of the US. And this is what the total debt looked like up till about 1972 where you can see it starts peaking up higher. And since 1972, when we got off the gold standard and went full-blown fiat, you can see

[06:44] that the government spending has been unhinged and out of control. And this is the fuel our markets are made up of. This is the greatest poni of all time. And this is why I say all the time, policy is the root cause of all bull

[06:57] markets. Policy decisions dictate everything because government spending has become such a massive portion of what drives liquidity and what drives the government as the one pumping liquidity into the lifeblood of the

[07:11] market and the government stops spending, you get massive turbulence in retraction of liquidity, which is what we're going through right now. We are in a debt-driven economy. We are in a debt-driven market and you have to

[07:25] constantly pump more and more liquidity into the system to keep this thing going or you have the entire Ponzi collapse and unravel which obviously nobody wants to see that happen. And basically because we have these massive levels of

[07:38] caught in these cycles where they're economy or they're entering a tightening phase of the economy. Uh and every time the economy, things get too out of control. Everything looks like it's

[07:52] heating up too hot. So then they have to tighten and then things go the opposite direction and they start to break in the opposite ways and then the government and they just kind of do this cycle over and over and over again because they

[08:05] have to because if they don't the entire Ponzi falls apart and if the entire Great Depression look like summer at the Hamptons. It would just be absolutely the time a lot of the growth that we've seen in crypto has come from

[08:18] institutional flows. It's been uh specifically one new faucet that's And with the crypto space being so small, I mean there are multiple stocks that are valued higher than the entire total market cap of crypto. With it

[08:32] being so small, new flows from boomer retail and institutions have a massive impact on the total market cap of crypto, specifically the price of that's been in the stock market, the S&P 500, has been driven primarily from AI

[08:46] thing. If you look at the wider economy, it's not the same rosy picture. So, we're about to head into an easing cycle. And this isn't even like guesswork. This is obvious. Uh Trump investments say it all day long. The Fed

[09:00] is started the rate cutting cycle. Uh and we're about to get the end of QT. So, during that last Fed meeting, um one of the things Trump pal signaled is that they're ending QT starting in December. And in terms of liquidity, the impact of

[09:13] ending QT isn't massive because QT was already at like pretty reduced levels um significant effect when it comes to market plumbing, uh, which is one of the big issues, uh, in key areas right now that's holding back the markets. And

[09:27] saying is that they're going to roll over NBS payments into buying Treasury this is QE or stealth QE, and they're getting people really pumped up. That's actually not accurate. This would be a lot smaller in terms of scale. So, like

[09:40] the net impact on like the markets and liquidity is going to be a lot smaller from this NBS rollover into buying bills. uh if you take the kind of like aggregate effect of like Q ending QT plus NBS it's like it's not zero it's

[09:53] like definitely somewhat of an impact and it's definitely liquidity positive uh the NBS rollover is a form of money printing uh but it's nothing crazy so it tailwind to the markets but as I mentioned the real impact is in market

[10:07] there is a decent amount of liquidity it's just being held back by that market over in terms of market plumbing which is a really good thing and so going Back to the scores again. October was abysmal sitting at 10. This is like apocalyptic

[10:21] levels. Like 1 through 10 is just you you don't want to be anywhere near the we can see in November we actually pop back up to around 55. Now this is hugely the government shutdown goes through November, November will also be abysmal.

[10:37] And you can expect much lower prices. The government shutdown is a key driver reversed is really bad. But as long as we see the shutdown ended, uh, November and things should start repairing and rebuilding at the moment that shutdown

[10:52] turned back on, liquidity starts flowing again. And there are, you know, all are going to get distributed once the government shutdown ends. And then if you look at December, it's even more bullish, sitting at around 65. And

[11:05] pricing even further forward, you can expect January to be a little bit better than December, February to be a little bit better than January. and things the spring. And I saw this post and I thought it was interesting where this

[11:17] Bitcoin is not going up while S&P and gold break higher. We had these same conversations in summer of 2020, but most have forgotten and were not around back then." Chat GBT remembers though, and the post says, "In summer 2020, many

[11:29] the S&P 500 and gold hit new all-time highs. Stocks had fully recovered from the COVID crash and gold surged past 1,000 amid record stimulus and inflation fears. Meanwhile, Bitcoin lingered around 9K to 12K, still below its 2017

[11:42] questioned if Bitcoin had lost its momentum or missed its macro moment. Ironically, that doubt marked the final accumulation phase before Bitcoin broke out in late 2020, smashing 20K and launching the next major bull run. Doubt

[11:56] often comes right before the breakout. 2026 will be the first 5-year cycle. I at this point, it is obvious what is coming next. I am not selling. I have not sold out of any of my positions. I'm only looking to buy and accumulate more

[12:09] update on my 10K to 1 million portfolio soon. I still think the best is yet to come and I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I have my entire net worth, every dime that I have. I even sold my house invested into the market. So, if

[12:23] I'm wrong, I will lose bigger than just about anyone else out there. I cannot insane amount of research. And I'm telling you, we are just getting started. This is liquiditydriven market weakness. and the best is yet to come.

[12:37] entire portfolio or you want to see every time I buy and sell various tokens, as well as different weekly video market updates, uh, currently the weight list in the description of this video. As always, know this is

[12:49] telling you to do anything with your money. I'm obviously not your financial own research. If this video is helpful, make sure to hit that like button, and button and the little bell next to it to be notified each time I release a new

[13:03] video. Thanks for watching and I'll see you next