Iran Deal Signal & Fed Hold — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:03] the Federal Reserve just decided to hold interest rates waiting for more data. Remember my hint about the phone call? If they want to buy time, it's maybe because they think something's happening with Iran. I kid you not. The very

[00:19] minute, it's like they're not even trying to be bashful about this anymore. Okay? the very minute this damn form comes out saying the Fed is accumulating more information to support them on their timely return to 2%. Okay, I

[00:33] literally wrote on it bullish delaying time the very minute they dropped that Axios drops a piece on Iran. I kid you not, if I refresh this right now, it's Uh if we could actually go hit refresh on it. There we go. 10 minutes ago. 10

[00:49] minutes ago. You could look at the clock. This literally dropped the minute, and it was because of a brief interview with Donald Trump about Iran. So, Donald Trump gets on the phone to drop a story at 11:00 a.m., the same

[01:02] damn time the Fed says, "Let's hold. We're going to wait a little bit. We're going to buy some time." Bro, it's happening. This is exactly what I Worsh, be like, "Yo, just just buy me some time, man. I used those words over

[01:17] the last two days. Holy smokes. It's like Nostradamus. Just buy the freaking Reinvest One already at reinvest one.com. What are you waiting for? Okay, let's Sorry. Heart rate. Heart rate. Uh-oh. Okay, hold on. Heart rate

[01:31] notifications. Let's actually talk about what is going on inside of this article presser, but okay, [snorts] deep breaths. Regional mediators led by Qatar are trying to reach a deal to restart negotiations, which implies that

[01:45] negotiations have stalled. But over here, Donald Trump says in a brief interview Wednesday today, "Negotiations with Iran are taking place, but he's not to finish the job either through a deal

[01:58] negotiations can succeed." What it White House and the team have basically sent over a lastditch effort and they're like, "Look, you guys need to sign this crap by Friday, otherwise we're done.

[02:11] I don't know the Friday part. I'm I'm saying the Friday part, but listen to here. Let's talk about a potential lastminute deal that the Qataris are trying to convince Iran to allow US

[02:24] weapons inspectors back in. But what's more than that is remember that Monday Mecca summit that they had. Well, take a look at what was talked about on Monday. On Monday, it says some here. Saudi, Turkish, and Pakistani officials

[02:37] reinforced the message during the visit to Thran several days ago that in order to avoid major attacks after the midterms, Iran better accept the proposals that the United States is putting forward. Remember how I made

[02:50] by the balls right now and he's just waiting to do that, right? Like this threat right here. Putin's telling him to buy take the deal. The Saudis are telling them to take the deal. the Turkish, the Pakistanis, the Qataris,

[03:04] they're all going, "Iran, just please take the freaking deal." Like the whole about, "Oh yeah, we're going to have another little epic fury." It's all part of this branding. Like I was joking the other day that I think Donald Trump

[03:18] honestly he'll like come up with a plan. He'll like he'll send a negotiation offer through Telegram or whatever to the Iranians and then he'll go uh let's go play golf. and he'll say, "Hey, um, press secretary, who do we have now?"

[03:34] Anyway, get get the press corps together. Meet me at the helellipad. And He walks out with his jacket, walks on over, and nobody cares where he's going. He's going to go play golf. Well, we don't know. We might have to

[03:49] bomb again. Little epic fury, you know. We might we might just have to bomb him gets all the coverage. And so then the Iranians basically get their telegram. You need to let our inspectors in. and then they look on TV and

[04:02] they see Donald Trump going golfing. Oh, I have to strike him again. It's all a ploy. Like, we're It's all a game, dude. The fact that they released this article The fact that they released this article the minute of the Fed press statement

[04:16] the minute of the Fed press statement coming out is not a coincidence. Look, now the Iranians are seeking the approval basically of the supreme leader for either quote ideas, which would imply a counter offer or accepting the

[04:29] proposal. Mediators are saying that Iran accepting the deal right now would be the only way to end the war. And Argoti, the foreign minister, comes out and says, "We're fully prepared to defend the homeland, but uh we continue to give

[04:42] diplomacy a chance to succeed." You see how soft the Iranians are starting to sound? This is not a surprise. So, this is starting to line up dovish. So, what right our bingo board. We'll see how this goes. But we did a bearish side and

[04:56] a hawkish side. Uh, sorry, bearish hawkish side and a bullish dovish side. And on the dobish side, look what we wrote right here. Things like wait for last policy adjustment to impact the economy, long invariable lags, basically

[05:14] patience. We literally wrote that before this article came out, right? And before they said, "Oh, we need some more time to get some more data." Like, that's what they're setting up. They're setting up a deal. They're setting up, don't go

[05:26] them. We're going to get a deal in the if you need to. Now, we'll see what happens, but I don't think this article was a coincidence at all. There is some movement. We are waiting for the Iranian

[05:38] response. Apparently, a deal would uh be in alignment with the United Nations weapons inspectors visiting nuclear sites and then Iran receiving waiverss to sell oil uh and then of course they would get uh a release of funds to buy

[05:53] food and other humanitarian goods. Now, just to remind you where these things sit, we have actually seen and we've been tracking this every damn day. We've been tracking this every damn day. We've actually seen this uh uh this movement

[06:06] from the Iranians that they say we don't want to let a single gram of our highlyenriched uranium leave the country. And so what's the counter proposal coming from the Qataris? The Qataris are like then don't why don't

[06:19] Qataris are like then don't why don't you just dilute it and set it up for you just dilute it and set it up for inspections by the IAEA. Keep it in your country. Let the inspectors look at all the crap that's bombed. Let them see

[06:31] your highlyenriched uranium. Show that you're diluting it. And then they'll let you sell oil. And then you could sell gas. You just went to the natural gas forum in Moscow on Tuesday. The president of Iran went there. Everybody

[06:45] Monday. We were supposed to get taco Tuesday. It didn't happen. The Iranians are taking a little longer. But I still believe the Iranians know that after the election, Donald Trump doesn't have a benefit from rushing to a deal. After

[07:00] the election, Donald Trump has 2 years to make a deal. Before the election, Donald Trump has days to make a deal. A lot of people think, why would the Iranians give Donald Trump a deal, like a win? Because Donald Trump would get

[07:13] would give the best deal to the Iranians before the election because he stands to gain from that. Otherwise, they'll just go double middle fingers. F it. What's the point? That's my thesis. Didn't happen by the 27. could happen

[07:27] Didn't happen by the 27. could happen before the election. I also said my 27th was was through 11:00 a.m. I think it's hilarious that right at 11 a.m. we get this talk about a negotiation. Still don't get a deal. So, we were wrong so

[07:39] don't get a deal. So, we were wrong so far. Wrong so far. I'm still unabashedly bullish though that the Fed in coordination with Trump are setting up coordination with Trump are setting up for you know a a big W here. Problem is

[07:51] people get nervous about Kevin Worsh hawking and putting the pants on. So now. If you like that video, check this one out. I think you're gonna love it. told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this.

[08:05] >> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to >> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst and YouTuber. [music] Meet Kevin. Always YouTuber. [music] Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.