Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Rise — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] Well, we've got updates on what's going on with Iran, and I have to say, they're actually really good updates. I know. The first thing people ask is, Kevin, how are you actually going to tell me that Donald Trump's sending another 9,000 to 10,000 troops to the Middle East,

[00:19] including another carrier strike group and amphibious assault group, how are you going to tell me that that is potentially good news? I'm going to explain that in this segment, and I'm going to explain what's changed.

[00:36] And that's exactly what I want to start with, is what's changed. Because what's very interesting is last week, we saw news that the president of Iran was open to a set of new nuclear infections.

[00:55] That has now shifted. It is now no longer just the president of Iran. The president of Iran is a little bit more of a dump. And I always think it's useful to visualize this,

[01:08] because then you can see how things are changing. There's the president, and then you've got the leader of parliament, then you've got the foreign minister, okay?

[01:22] You've got the Supreme Leader, and then you've got the IRGC. All these folks sit somewhere on the spectrum of dove or hawk.

[01:34] I generally put the President of Iran as a dove. And then over here on the hostage side, obviously we're going to put some of the sort of OG clerics, and probably the Ayatollah is probably somewhere over here.

[01:59] And then you're going to have the different spiderweb components of the IRGC, right? Because this is spiderweb command leadership. They all kind of do their own thing. We've talked about that before. the

[02:11] oops, that's the wrong color, doesn't matter the foreign minister I generally put somewhere over here, so a little bit more towards the hawkish side but still on the more dovish side

[02:24] and so the reason I bring this up is because we have a little bit of a shift here, so last week we heard that the president in an interview with CBS says you know, the question is, will your country allow

[02:36] weapons inspectors now? That is absolutely correct. If they wish to come in and have inspections, we can reach accords and agreements vis-à-vis that specific topic within negotiations. In English, yes.

[02:48] The IAEA came out immediately after that and said, hey, we could resume weapons inspections very quickly. This was in an interview on Bloomberg. They went out and said, hey, we could do this very quickly.

[03:00] We'll get right back in there. This is great news. Now, we're getting reporting here that Iran offers to allow nuclear inspections if sanctions are eased, and this indicates that now the foreign minister, who is more hawkish,

[03:13] I kind of see him as maybe more in the middle than I even drew on that sheet, Iran's foreign minister has now suggested in private talks that his country is willing to restore nuclear inspections for sanctions relief, a concession that could help break the deadlock.

[03:28] This is good. And again, the more we get people on the more hawkish side saying, all right, we relent. It's more evidence that the Iranian economy truly is suffering and that oil exports are getting crushed by Iran due to the blockade.

[03:48] In fact, The Economist has a fantastic piece on this. So The Economist argues the following. First, they say that a ship tracking firm indicates that the level of oil coming out of the Middle East has almost fully recovered.

[04:02] This is what we've been talking about even over this last week, that before the war we were around 21 million barrels of oil. We're now up to over 17, almost completely back to where we were.

[04:14] This does include the bypassing that is going on through the east-west pipeline, for example. Iran, on the other hand, while we're 70 to 100 percent, depending on how you measure it,

[04:26] back to where we were with oil exports out of the region, Iran is exporting less than one-tenth of what it shipped before the conflict began. This indicates, per the economists, that Iran's chokehold on oil coming out of the Gulf appears to be loosening.

[04:45] So in other words Iran wants to seem like they are in control of the Strait of Hormuz and they certainly caused a lot of problems but now we essentially have this like halo overpowered shield around ships in the region because the U is basically bailing out any insurers that are insuring these ships and guaranteeing the safety of these ships monetarily and with

[05:09] the might of the U.S. military. And now we're bringing a third carrier strike group to the region. In my opinion, we'll talk about my opinion in just a moment, this has to do with negotiations, but obviously the image is we're going to double down on this blockade.

[05:23] You want to solution the blockade? we're actually going to double down on the blockade, which crimps their ability to export even more. We do have some issues in markets right now, like concerns that export ban talk for diesel inside of the United States

[05:38] or China banning exports, all of these things temporarily leading to spikes in oil. China is obviously also having to go out to the market to purchase more oil from the free market

[05:51] because they're getting less from Iran, which actually pushes up not black market prices, but global prices, because now a buyer that used to buy these black markets from Iran, you know, from spanking countries,

[06:03] is buying in the open market because China needs more oil, essentially. And so you have some issues that are leading to these fluctuations. You have concerns that there are unverified reports about high-speed craft capable of delivering

[06:18] or planting essentially naval mines around the Omani coast have been spotted as recently as last week, which isn't great. So obviously there are issues and there are conflicts. But what the point of this Economist article is saying is,

[06:32] hey, the Iranians' ability to actually get oil out is collapsing. And this is great for the United States' negotiation point of view.

[06:44] And that's where I'm going to go into my opinion, and then we're going to go into a little bit more color on what's going on. I made this analogy this morning in our course number live stream. Well, one of the things we talked about in the course number live stream is that during the day, you have to be careful about this,

[06:57] during the day there is a tendency, and we talk about this regularly in course number live stream, there's a tendency for oil market, or not oil, for treasury yields to be low pre-market and then rise during the trading day.

[07:10] And it's literally what happened today. After that jobs report this morning, we got treasury yields came way down, and then they rise, rise, rise. I actually sent a trade alert on this bet this morning

[07:22] that treasury yields would likely go up again before they come down because the Iran war is not over. So I sent a trade alert related to that, and that's a convenient reminder that if you have not yet checked out our platform,

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[08:38] But we were talking about that this morning and actually sent a trade alert on that and it was the right move to make. So we're not always perfect, obviously, but the point is when we look at the market and when we look at this Iran deal, and we talked about this

[08:52] yesterday in detail, even on the channel, is we need the deal to happen. And so what did we talk about this morning in the last show? We made an analogy. And the analogy is that Donald Trump is arm-wrestling with Iran.

[09:09] And there's a lot of memory that people have about Donald Trump and Taco. Like, look at this Axios piece. In the last 18 months, two failed rounds of negotiations that led to two different wars.

[09:22] You have Donald Trump being all about getting a quick deal, and the United States has attention deficit disorder, basically. and they're kind of bagging on Donald Trump for being impatient and tacoing and flip-flopping and all of that.

[09:37] And I get it, okay? We've had our criticisms of Trump as well. But I actually think this time, and I know these are the crazy words, this time is different. Why? Because here's the analogy that I like to use.

[09:50] I think at the beginning of the year, Donald Trump's like, Ah my arms are so big and powerful baby I could beat up anybody I want Watch me go take the leader of Venezuela Oh I got the leader of Venezuela

[10:09] Hey, Cuba. How you doing over there? Oh, Iran. I guess you're next.

[10:21] And so Donald Trump had this point of view that his arms were just really, really big. and he was really big and powerful and there was really nothing that could go wrong. And so that's where we got Donald Trump goes in to arm wrestle basically with Iran

[10:36] and all of a sudden Iran, you know, they're actually hitting some of our stuff. They're taking down some of our war dogs. They're taking down some of our aircraft. We've got pilots behind enemy lines.

[10:48] You know, we got bases getting hit. Donald Trump is like, bro, I did not know you guys were this strong. Bro, Pete, I need more bombs.

[11:02] And Pete's like, we're running out of bombs. I'm like, figure it out. Pete, Rubio, J.D., help. You know? And so Trump, he has to talk, because he's on the back.

[11:15] What, he's losing the arm wrestle negotiation? You know, that's pretty bad. now it's like we got the blockade we got the European sanctions we got the aircraft sanctions we got trucks that can't get into and out of Iran

[11:29] because they're stuck at the border of Afghanistan Pakistan, Iran, Turkey we can't go anywhere and Trump's like now I got you

[11:41] now what? you guys want to make a deal? nah that's not good enough I'm going to send another carrier strike group to the region. You know?

[11:53] And now Trump is loving this. Okay? Trump loves being here in the arm wrestle negotiation. Because, you know, what Trump is basically threatening is that at any moment, I just finish you off.

[12:07] And so Donald Trump's got him like here right now on sort of an arm wrestle scale. And that's why I think you're getting more and more of this happening, where they're starting to come over.

[12:19] They're starting to come to this realization that they're kind of screwed and that they don't have control. I mean, earlier when Trump was on the back foot, it's like, damn, they've got control of Hormuz.

[12:31] This is bad. They could really screw up the economy. Now it's like we figured out how to deal with it. Now we have this giant shield around oil flows in the Middle East. Now Donald Trump doesn't have to rush to make a deal

[12:44] because he's got them right here. at any moment, Donald Trump can go, either make a deal or go back to strike. Now, this is going to make me sound like I put the knee pads on or that I'm somehow shilling for Donald

[12:57] Trump now, okay? Remember, I vote for me, Kevin, okay? I didn't vote for Donald Trump, I vote for me, Kevin, you know, that's simple. I criticize all politicians, okay? I don't like politicians. But this is actually a point now where I think this situation has evolved

[13:15] to where we are probably going to get a nuclear deal with Iran. I actually am cheering really heavily right now because I think that we are so close to actually making a really good deal

[13:28] because the U.S. naval blockade is working probably better than expected. And Treasury Secretary Besant's economic D-Day wasn't really a D-Day.

[13:40] It was more of a period of increasing pressure. And it's starting to work. And so that's where I actually think that this, I don't have a position on it now,

[13:54] because I had a position and then it really ran off, and so I took a little bit out of this. But this is on Kalshi. I'm considering, and I haven't yet, I'm considering buying some more of this before March 1st of 27,

[14:10] although this is really low as well over here before Jan. 128 at 37 cents. I think we're going to get a nuclear deal because this is happening.

[14:22] And if we look over here, take a look at this. You rejected the ceasefire proposal. Can you tell us why? And this, I think, was transcribed poorly, but basically Donald Trump wanted more.

[14:34] And he said they made an offer to open up the freight. You know, you saw some aspects of it, not all, but it's just not good enough. Nearly.

[14:46] I think this is a key word. Now, I think the Times interviewers really dropped the ball because then they talk about bombing again. They should have really kept Donald Trump on this. What do you mean nearly? What's left to finish the deal?

[14:58] What left to get the deal over the finish line This was a bad job by reporters They did a really poor job here I mean they got more talk about Caitlin Collins than they got about the deal

[15:10] which kind of pisses me off, but you got literally Donald Trump. What's the purpose of, like, this crazy Caitlin Collins? She's a very average person. She's the most unhappy person I've ever seen.

[15:25] It's sad. Very sad. which is ridiculous, all of this stuff. But the point is, I actually think Axios is wrong

[15:38] when they make this argument that Donald Trump has ADD. I think Donald Trump is in a very good position right now, and I'm very pro-America on this, because I think you've got a state sponsor of terror

[15:52] that is literally on the back foot right now. It is their turn to be on the back foot. and we're seeing that transition happen, and it's very bullish longer term. Between now and the election, I think we'll end up getting a deal.

[16:05] I should note, I did pull up CalSheet, and I should note that they are a sponsor of the channel. You sign up for CalSheet, either in the link in the description or scan the QR code or whatever, you get $25 when you sign up for CalSheet and make your first trade.

[16:19] Again, they're a paid sponsor of the channel. But anyway, what I think is so incredible is that the Treasury market just showed you that it should be lower.

[16:31] Like, bond yields should be lower. The Treasury bond prices should be higher. Yields should be higher. But the problem is we still don't have a deal with Iran. So you can't expect to sustain what we had this morning.

[16:47] So if we go to look again at the Treasury yield, if we look at the 10 years chart, okay, and we go right here to the one day, you can't expect to sustain that until you have a deal with Iran.

[17:02] Once you have a deal with Iran, this can actually meaningfully stay lower. But until then, you're going to get volatility like there's some reports. To some extent, this is a good thing that we get this sort of, you know, rapid responsiveness

[17:16] because to me it does indicate people are nervous that this next carrier strike group coming, oh, that's a sign of escalation. That's just Donald Trump pushing on the hand even more. He is willing to plow money sending a ship from San Diego to the Middle East,

[17:30] a whole carrier strike group, to send his intention that, I don't know, if we've got to go bomb you guys, we'll do it here. We'll send another group to the region. We don't want to remove our troops from the region. That's part of Donald Trump's negotiating posture.

[17:42] We can't get or expect a meaningful decline in the 10-year until a deal is actually reached, and I think we're going to get one. So I'll be watching those odds on CalSheet. Maybe if it dips even lower, I'll take the positive on that.

[17:57] And maybe I'm too optimistic, but at least what I'm seeing, it seems to lean on nearly a daily basis towards greater chances that we get a deal rather than lower chances that we get a deal.

[18:09] And so I'm looking forward to that because the market's rallying. Like this morning, you know, we said last, well, we said at the beginning of this week, maybe even at late last week, that the market would go on the triple Qs to $750 per share.

[18:24] We were literally at $750 per share ahead of schedule. So that's just an example of one of the predictions we make in the alpha report, right? So we put predictions in. We think this stock's going to go to this. We think if this stock breaks out, we think if this is going to happen,

[18:37] Here's why we think there's a catalyst for this. Here's what we're watching. Here are the tests. Here are the lines to watch. Right? We do that every morning in the alpha report, short, medium, long term. And the goal for the near term has been $7.50 in a queue.

[18:51] And everybody's like, oh, but there's so much fear. Not in the courses, but publicly. People are like, there's so much fear. Like, oh, my gosh, but there's no deal yet. This, that, or whatever. Like, we hit our all-time high target, and we don't even have a deal yet.

[19:03] On and on. Imagine when we get the deal. This is going to plow past 800. It's something to keep in mind. Scott here writes, China has sold over 72 billion in treasuries over the last six months.

[19:19] Yeah. Well, Japan still sold more than that. But yeah, there's been a lot of dumping of treasuries. It's in Europe. It's in China. It's in Japan. It's really a lot.

[19:31] But eventually, that will bottom out. So, anyway. I maintain my optimism. There is additional information here as to why, which I think is very useful. So that's my take on it all.

[19:43] If you liked that video, finger around. I think you're going to love it. I know I advertise these things that you told us here. I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll try a little advertising here at PR Coach. Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you.

[19:55] People look up to you. Kevin Pass left there. Finance Alarmist and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.