Tesla Q3 Deliveries: Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] Tesla just beat delivery expectations. We've got to talk about what this means for Tesla stock because today Tesla is having one heck of a ride. And I have to say, just a few days ago, we sent out an email, totally free, this isn't even a pitch for anything you have to pay for.

[00:21] We sent out an email, our first Meet Kevin Digest email, and in it, it included a bullish call on Tesla and a price target for Tesla. You can get this for free if you want.

[00:35] Just type into your browser meetkevin.com slash digest or click the link down below. Meetkevin.com slash digest and you hit enter on it. You get this. Price targets, macro, and wealth every single day for free in an email.

[00:51] I also post these in the Daily Wealth tab of the Meet Kevin app, but some of you have told me you just prefer getting your recap in an email. And so now we give you a little bit of a recap on videos,

[01:03] on the streams we made, on price target calls we made, and then we link to different videos just to make it easier for you. Like if you want to watch more videos, you can, to get the sort of deep dive analysis on it. But if you want just a quick, like, hey, you know,

[01:16] I didn't get a chance to watch Kevin today. You know, can I get a quick little recap or whatever? This is an email that we put together for you. And again, it will be in the Meet Kevin app under the Daily Wealth tab, or in email, you can get this via the Daily Digest.

[01:29] So just drop your email there, meetkevin.com slash digest. But that was a bullish call on Tesla. And here we are. Tesla just beat delivery expectations fantastically. The stock is up 5%.

[01:41] And there's about a 70% correlation when Tesla goes up, SpaceX also goes up. So SpaceX is essentially slowly going up right now, because Tesla's off. I mean, the charts are almost perfect here.

[01:53] I personally think people have, like, an Elon basket, and then it's like, they're bullish Elon, they buy Elon. They're bearish Elon, they sell Elon. Okay, whatever, man, but that's good to know in case you're wondering.

[02:06] You know, what's going on with things? It's because Tesla's off, okay? But so what happened with Tesla, and what do we need to consider for the price of the stock? Like, why does this matter for Tesla, just another delivery set?

[02:22] Well, matter is a big deal because the auto business is the core of Tesla's business. And what's really crazy is when you compare it to last year, quarter three was critical.

[02:36] Why? Because you might not remember this, but I remember this. Very, very, very important. Last year, Q3 was the last chance for you to take advantage of the EV tax credit.

[02:52] So September 30th of last year was a massive milestone for Tesla, and we pulled forward a lot of demand for Tesla vehicles. Well, that showed us deliveries of 497,099.

[03:10] That was what we had last year, Q3. Okay? We just got deliveries that came in at 486,532.

[03:24] Now, yes, that number is lower. Oops, I totally forgot a digit here. There you go. 486. 486,532 divided by 497,099.

[03:38] That means we are now 2.13, 2.13% within the prior year's numbers without the tax credit.

[03:55] That's fracking insane. You are talking about effectively, okay, effectively a $7,500 price increase for Tesla.

[04:10] And we are literally within 2.13%. You know what that sounds like to me, right? Big pee-pee. Yeah. That is honestly very, very solid for Tesla.

[04:23] That is what I call big pee-pee, baby. BPP. Okay. Now, why did that matter so much?

[04:35] Why do we care? I thought Tesla was about Optimus or CyberCab or whatever. Look, the CyberCab's got a lot of work to do because we've got to compress the time frame to get the CyberCab operating in different cities across the country

[04:48] and then eventually different countries. That's going to take time. But you realize what the CyberCabs actually are? It doesn't matter right now about fleet sales. That'll matter in the future.

[05:00] You know what the cybercabs do? Between now and then? Think about it. It's free advertising. Every single person that's like, Look at that cybercab.

[05:13] It's crazy. Oh, I heard those are driving without a driver. What? Yeah, they have some versions on Australia. Oh my gosh. Can I buy a Tesla?

[05:25] Well, you can't buy a cybercab yet, but you can buy a Model Y or a Model 3 and get FSD, and I'll pay monthly for it and pass some more ARR on to Tesla. You can buy that right now if you want, you know.

[05:39] An inventory available if you want to just hop on over to the dealership, the Tesla store, go online, buy right now. And you can drive, you can have the car drive yourself home right now.

[05:51] It's the best damn branding ever, bro! It's freaking brilliant! it doesn't matter that the cybercap doesn't work everywhere right now it's advertising

[06:03] so they go scatter these things everywhere and what it like this is freaking awesome So I really excited about what this means for the biggest vertical of the business

[06:21] And it beat expectations by about 5%. But we need to look at the actual spreadsheet here of the biggest vertical of the business. Scott wants to know how much for my black ex. Now, why are you trying to figure out how much my black ex is worth?

[06:37] You know, to me, that's sentimental. There is a lot of value riding on my black ex. Somebody else asked, submit my email, but I didn't get it. Oh, for the digest.

[06:49] If you have an issue with anything ever Meet Kevin related, just email us at staffandmeetkevin.com. We will take care of you. That's the job of Kevin, boy.

[07:01] And look, Kevin's a happy boy. See? Happy. Reinvest one. This is really cool, by the way. I mean, I want to be bullish about Tesla. I'll talk about Tesla in just a moment.

[07:13] But this is really, really cool because look at this. Oh, this is sexy. Look at this. Alpha membership, trade alerts, the reinvest stocks platform, reinvest homes, all nine courses, the course number live streams, and the business blueprint product.

[07:27] Bro, you get so much in one product. And this is a complete rewrite that's coming by the end of the year, the reinvest terminal. This is a fan-freaking-tastic review.

[07:41] I got Tesla as an example over here. Look at this. This will be an example of some of the stuff you get. 96% of the time disappeared. Tesla ran up 30% within 60 days. Bottom line, buy the dip. Setup is in play, right?

[07:53] Like, these are the things that are coming to this product. And it is so frickin' exciting what we are building with this. And we're killing, just like they, you know how they killed lifetime access to FSD?

[08:06] And now you have to pay monthly to get full self-driving? That same thing is what we're going to do with this. Except everybody who has lifetime access to reinvest one by the end of the year keeps it for life.

[08:19] and anybody who signs up in 2027 or on will be paying like an annual fee for the product, like a license essentially. But that's, you know, Tesla actually shifted to the ARR model for FSC

[08:34] and it's actually quite smart because now when they get new signups on top of their $750 million a year roughly of FSC, you're expecting that to pretty much be pure revenue,

[08:47] just flowing and flowing and flowing. And that's very exciting because ARR gets a higher multiple on Wall Street. So it's a great thing. So what you have here, somebody says, need a good way to roll monthly.

[09:02] No, we're not doing monthly. We'll always end up doing like an annual-based option. If you need some kind of like way to break up the payment, you could use Affirm or Klarna or Pay in 4 if you prefer to break it up.

[09:15] But then you own it for life. But we're not doing that. We're not the financers of it. So, SpaceX and Tesla spreadsheet. People forget. They get very excited about operating income for the Optimus and operating income for the semi-truck.

[09:33] And my sheet over here indicates, you know, operating income from the semi-truck. From FSC, it could go to $2.5 billion. Semi-truck could be $4.2. The Tesla bond, I've got $1.5 right here.

[09:47] It's a little, you know, whatever. Maybe the semi and bot will be split. It doesn't matter. The point is, people don't realize all of those damn numbers are a fraction of the operating income that you get from selling freaking cars.

[10:04] Now, in fairness, the margins I have listed right here are elevated for 2030 fleet sales of the cyber capital. But if I drop those margins to 20%, let's say,

[10:16] if still $27.5 billion of operating income selling 4 million cars comes from selling cars. That's my forecast for this company, is you have to sell cars.

[10:32] And the more you can sell these damn cars, the more money this company brings to the bottom line. And so I want to see vehicle deliveries go from $2 million a year to $4 million. Now, we still have some work to do because even at this pace we have now, times four,

[10:46] we're only sitting at roughly $2 million, like $1.93, right? That's not great. We still have work to do. But that's okay. It's coming. And this is a sign that the pricing power is there.

[10:58] The bottoming is in process for this company. It's very exciting. So that's why my forecast for this suggests that at a present value of $3.75, let's say, if you can get to $824 per share by the end of 2030,

[11:14] this actually provides you a rate of return of about 20%. Which, you know, I'm a little biased, but I think my little startup is going to wear out before that. But duh! My startup isn't a $1.5 trillion company!

[11:29] It's a tiny little baby! You would expect it to grow more. But the point is, for a big company like this, it's actually really good. you know, on an annual compounded rate, if they can pull some of these things off.

[11:42] Now, obviously, if you come up here and you discount this, you know, if I, if let's say I can only get or capture, that's at 30%, I can only get to 24% margin on those vehicle deliveries.

[11:56] You know, we drop down to about a 16% compounded annual rate of return. So we could play with this. You know, I could go in here and I could leave it at 30 and I could take out the Tesla bot and I could take out the semi truck.

[12:08] I'd actually get to about an 18%. So there's some real potential on the stock. But the bottoming process now is we will go look at the technicals on it I think the next stop really for Tesla on an Iran deal is getting to 414 So getting to an Iran deal on 414 is key

[12:29] And if I look at Tesla's stock on a zoomed-out basis, you can see we've been bleeding over here. Sorry, this right here. We've been bleeding a little bit the last few days,

[12:41] but we've really stabilized above 347, which is great, Because briefly, this was on Leopold liquidation. That was a discount. That was a treat, losing that purple line right here.

[12:54] The 347 has been very stable. And we just bounced off of it again over here. And the next line is 414. And I think we'll head on over there soon enough.

[13:09] So I think this is very interesting. And I think it's good for Tesla. It's a win for Tesla. But Bloomberg does argue that there are some risks of China, and I agree with it. China's been a big exporter for Tesla vehicles.

[13:22] You know, Shanghai did 66,000 vehicles in July alone, which, you know, on a quarter is almost 200,000 vehicles coming just from the Shanghai facility. Energy storage did miss, which I have to say I was a little bit disappointed about energy storage missing.

[13:37] I tweeted a picture of me in front of the Tesla power wall because we just installed it. We just paid for it and got our permits and everything for it. But I think it's very cool.

[13:49] I'll show you this. This says my home. It's not really my home. Maybe I can figure out how to relabel it. But let's see what we've got cooking right now on the quote-unquote virtual power plant in California. So as you can see right now, this building is operating at 6.1 kilowatts of usage.

[14:08] I've got 1.3 kilowatts going into the power wall. so a portion of the solar that's being generated right now. So we're charging up the Powerwall again because we usually deploy the Powerwall when the rates are the highest,

[14:20] between like 4 to 8 p.m., somewhere around there. But I mean, they do a great job here with the app. I really enjoy how they build it. There's so much, I mean, I hate to say it, but it's way better than Enphase's app.

[14:34] I have, and that's the thing, like Enphase's Enlighten app doesn't have the sex appeal of cash flow. and then now you can apparently plug your Cybertruck in to provide Cybertruck's battery backup for your house

[14:49] which is also kind of interesting I wonder if that could end up working because on my home I have the Enphase system so I get to compare I mean ultimately it's all the same

[15:02] Tesla's putting Chinese batteries in their battery packs and they're probably Chinese solar panels too I have Q cells which are German cells on this house that I'm in now

[15:15] but we have a couple different arrays which is really annoying see like they didn't combine my sites so on the Enphase app I have like Kevin 1 and Kevin 2 for like home sites even though it's on the

[15:28] same damn property because we added panels at one point and it's just like the app's just clunky it's not as good uh let me see I don't think this shows anything proprietary whatever so this is um

[15:46] this is the Enphase app it's just it's just not as cool right uh 41% charge produce discharge whatever it's hard for me to know what's live status do connecting to gateway

[16:01] oh my gosh dude it's so freaking slow look at this look at that crap makes me want to vomit so like yeah both of these plays by the way worth noting they're interest rate sensitive right

[16:15] so if we are if my call is correct that we are at peak yield unable to connect of course you're unable to connect, you dummy. Frickin' loser. Anyway, if it's true, and my call ends up

[16:31] being correct that we're at peak yield, Tesla is a beneficiary of that. Because my call is at 527 as peak yield. 527, we're at 526 right now-ish. I think 527 is peak yield.

[16:48] if that's true and we end up getting a what's it called we end up getting a deal with Iran then

[17:00] Tesla's going to skyrocket on that and Enphase might as well Enphase has like a small call option on it right now as a data center play but it's mostly an interest rate sensitive play so it's a dog stock when rates are this high

[17:12] absolute trash stock with rates this high but I want to be frank here Enphase is a competitor on the energy space. I mean, Tesla even missed on their gigawatt expectations.

[17:25] They were expecting, well, they got 13.7 gigawatts, and they were expecting, or they missed by 14%. But you can almost make an argument that Enphase's bottoming process is over, right?

[17:40] Look at this. They've come down hard and brutally through the interest rate hiking cycle. Let's just make these little gray cheeky lines over here.

[17:52] And the bottoms hit. And you could actually make the argument that since we're at peak yields here and we're still scraping along the bottom, you could make the argument that this is a dirt cheap company right now, $4.4 billion,

[18:06] with a data center call option on converters, which I think they demo within the next month and a half. So part of me has balls to say if we get peak yields

[18:19] and NBase's data center call option plays out, this is a dirt cheap competitor even though they're old apps and stuff, they nothing like the sex appeal of Tesla I mean Tesla like a 10 out of 10 you know Sarah Eisen level sex appeal Then you got Enphase that like a three but it cook

[18:44] you a great freaking meal. Uh, so, anyway, where were we? Uh, oh, I think it's also worth mentioning that, uh, because I see a question here about should you get solar? Oh, I mean,

[18:57] I'll answer the question. If you want, by the way, I do have an affiliate link with Tesla. And this video is not sponsored by Tesla. I'm just saying if you want the referral discounts. Like, I just buy, like, T-shirts or hats from Tesla or whatever. I got a bunch of hats over there when I get the referral credits.

[19:11] But if you go to metkevin.com slash Tesla, that's M-E-T, kevin.com slash Tesla. I know. I got to make the redirect to meetkevin.com Tesla. I got Tesla. Maybe I'll do that soon. I just don't really want to go into Cloudflare right now.

[19:24] So I'll just put that up for later. But anyway, metkevin.com slash tesla. If you type that in, there we are, here, you get the referral benefits for either the cars

[19:36] or you get $400 off on solar panels or Powerwall. So, like, you're better off using somebody's affiliate link than not. You get $400. But anyway, somebody asked here, are solar panels worth it?

[19:51] I've been thinking about getting them, but I was told they don't produce enough to pay for themselves. So we're getting about a 10% return on what we spent. So we spent about $31,000 on the panels and the tower walls.

[20:03] There's a limit. Like, there's a curve to where it doesn't make sense, and then it does make sense. You have to do the math. But my calculation puts me at about a 10.1% return on investment from this,

[20:15] and I think that's a good deal to make. and for most people, that return, you have to evaluate, but it's an after-tax return, right?

[20:27] Because if you do it on your home, you're typically not writing off all the electricity on your home unless you're running a business out of there, right? And so for most people, you're thinking after-tax utility bills,

[20:39] which actually boosts your returns by another, you know, I'm not going to do the math right now, but 30% or 40% or whatever. So I think there's some added value with that as well. But anyway, yeah, some things to think about.

[20:51] Now, as far as, there's another Bloomberg piece that is bearish on Tesla that suggests that Tesla, Toyota, and Hyundai do face a risk of losing about 12% Tesla and 10% for Toyota.

[21:07] market share in European volumes next year if Chinese ad share by about 5%. Now, those are a lot of like, yee, yee, yee, yee numbers. Basically, a risk that you have to be aware of with Tesla

[21:20] is that, yes, there is real Chinese competition. Does anybody really have competition for Tesla when it comes to full self-driving? No, not yet. It'll come. But we've been waiting for that to come for years, and it's still not here.

[21:32] So Tesla's doing very good by staying in the lead. and yeah, Chinese risk is a risk. It's a risk in America too. If the Chinese start selling cars in America, it's a poopy, poopish little doopy.

[21:45] As far as the valuation for Tesla, it is still elevated. Keep in mind also, Europe represents about 17% of Tesla's sales. So, you know, it's not like the biggest component of Tesla.

[21:58] It's not that big of a deal. But, you know, Chinese competition, if it comes to the United States, it's going to create some poopy doopies. But if we look at the peg ratio for Tesla, it is elevated right now.

[22:10] So we want to be clear about that. Relative to other stocks, Tesla is pricey right now. Tesla right now, at $1.63 on earnings per share forward, is trading for about $228x.

[22:24] That's pricey. If I divide that by forward growth expectations of $47, I still get about a 4.8 peg ratio. Okay, I can literally go buy Broadcom.

[22:36] Boring, stupid, ASIC designer, photonics, copper, play, Broadcom. And you know what I'm paying for Broadcom?

[22:53] Nah, that didn't work out very well. I was going to say, less than .8. you're paying like .67 right now for Broadcom. So just to put the valuation in perspective,

[23:08] okay, there are 13 companies right now, including NVIDIA, by the way. So I've been very, very, very bullish on NVIDIA. I think they're a robotics play. I think they're a vehicle economy play.

[23:21] There's so many more verticals than just Frontier chips, although those are the highest margin right now. But damn, though, holy moly, They make me excited. And they are dirt cheap as well.

[23:34] I mean, they're at all-time highs today. Finally breaking out of that 227 line. But anyway, if you want more of these sort of projections, the way I do them, bottom line for you, you really, really ought to consider joining ReinvestOne.

[23:49] Because you get everything that we have to offer in one lifetime package. And that package will be a recurring annual licensing fee in 2027 unless you buy before the end of the year.

[24:03] If you get in in 2026, you will not have to pay any kind of data fee, licensing fee, no nothing. You get in, you get all of it. This is an incredible value. It's honestly probably way too cheap for what you get.

[24:17] Alpha Membership, Trade Alert, the stock terminal coming out at the end of the year. If you like that video, check this one out. I think you're going to love it. I know how to advertise these things that you told us here.

[24:29] I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. Kevin Passer, financial analyst. And you two guys meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.