Why the PSEI Spiked? FTSE Rebalancing Explained
48sExplains a real market phenomenon (FTSE rebalancing) that causes one-day spikes, helping viewers understand index movements.
▶ Play ClipAI Summary
This video analyzes the Philippine stock market index (PSEI) and walks through a specific ‘bounce play’ trade on a speculative stock. The trader explains the execution strategy, emotional discipline required for bottom-picking, and the outcome of the quick intraday trade.
Chapters
[00:00]
Market Analysis: PSEI Consolidation
The market index shows a hammer candle with high volume, driven mainly by FTSE rebalancing on the closing day. Despite a one-day spike, the index remains in consolidation mode below resistance levels at 7,900–8,000.
[02:07]
Opportunities Despite Market Weakness
Even when the main index is sideways, there are trading opportunities in individual stocks. The trader shares a recent FGEN trade that hit the stop loss below 21, but proper allocation kept the portfolio safe.
[03:08]
Trade Trail: Accumulating a Bounce Play
Using the order history, the trader shows buying tranches around 232–227, with the bulk at 227 (200,000 shares). As the price rose, they added at 240, 246, and 254, with decreasing amounts to manage risk.
[04:18]
Strategy: Gap and Previous Resistance
The trade was a bounce play at the gap between 225–239, which acted as support after a previous breakout. The trader expected a 1–2 day reversal and positioned accordingly.
[05:43]
Position Sizing and Risk Management
Total position was 570,000 shares, with an average cost of 236. Capital deployed was around 1.1–1.3M, balanced appropriately for a speculative stock, allowing quick exit if needed.
[06:56]
Selling: Anticipatory Exit
On the 5-minute chart, the trader sold mainly at 252–251, reducing around 250 when momentum stalled. The anticipatory sell limited upside but protected against a potential drop.
[09:24]
Profit Calculation
Using an Excel calculation: 570,000 shares × average cost 236 × about 3.5% gain = roughly 85k gross profit. The quick play offset the earlier loss on FGEN.
[11:03]
Lesson: Bounce Play Discipline
Bounce plays are the most challenging because they require tight execution and high emotional control. If not sold within 1–2 days, the stock can revert to cost or drop further.
The video emphasizes that disciplined, well-sized bounce plays can generate quick profits even in a flat market, but they require strict rules and emotional control. The trader’s transparent breakdown of both a loss and a win serves as a practical guide for risk management and execution.
Mentioned in this Video
Tutorial Checklist
3
05:19
Start buying small tranches when price enters the gap support zone, increasing as price confirms upward.
4
05:31
Set a stop loss below the support (e.g., 230/225 for this trade) and exit if price closes below it.
5
06:56
Monitor on a 5-minute chart; when price weakens (e.g., fails to break resistance), sell aggressively to secure profits.
💡 Key Takeaways
💡
FTSE Rebalancing Effects
Explains how index rebalancing can create one-day price spikes, important for interpreting market moves.
00:24
⚖️
Risk Management Through Allocation
Shows that proper position sizing protects capital even when a trade hits its stop loss.
02:07
🔧
Gap Support Strategy
This is a reusable technique for identifying potential support levels from price gaps.
04:18
💡
Mindset for Speculative Trades
Emphasizes the need for quick, disciplined execution in high-risk plays.
07:44
⚖️
Bounce Play Difficulty
Highlights why bounce plays are inherently challenging due to emotional and execution demands.
11:03Full Transcript
[00:00] Magandang araw mga katropa, nandito ulit tayo sa Investograms para i-analyze ang market at mag-discuss ng panibagong trading strategy video.
[00:24] So una sa lahat, check muna natin yung BSEI, ano ba nangyari sa index natin? So yung last na araw, itong parang hammer candle na may high volume, yung one day ago, so malakas yung PSEI dito pero mainly on the closing kasi nagkaroon ng FTSE rebalancing parang dun sa last trading day yata na-apply yung mga changes.
[00:49] So usually pag ganyan, kapag may mga add-on weights, yung FTSE is on index or benchmark kung saan sinusunda ng mga fund managers yung composition ng stocks dun sa FTSE or FTSE.
[01:04] Pwede nyo isearch yan. So kadalasan yung mga adjustment na ganito, kapag may mga increase or decrease sa weights ng mga Philippine stocks or mga global stocks, sinusunda ng fund manager yan on the certain date of execution.
[01:18] execution. So, kagaya dito, merong one-day spike. Pero, regardless of that one-day spike, no? Kasi, end of day lang nangyari yun, eh. Pero, hanggang ngayon, ito nasa console,
[01:30] consolidation mode pa rin tayo. Again, yun pa rin yung resistance, 7,900, 8,000. Kung malakas tong PSD, dapat basagin natin ito. Diba? Otherwise, wala. Chill-chill muna tayo.
[01:43] Pero, despite the move of the market, kahit nang ganong paboring yung main index natin, that doesn't mean na walang opportunity. Marami pa rin mga
[01:55] opportunity na umiikot. So, meron pa rin mga opportunities na maaari nating matrade. Depende sa price structure
[02:07] o sa nangyayari dun sa stock kung meron mga opportunities na pwede nating i-take advantage. So, recently, na-share ko sa inyo yung FGN trade ko.
[02:19] So, sinunod ko lang yung rules ko below 21, so stop out. So, wala na ako dun. Right? Pero, ang kinaganda nga, pag sinusundan mo yung proper allocation ng stock sa portfolio
[02:31] mo, kahit na ma-stop out ka sa isang play na hindi tumugma sa'yo or yun nga, sinunod mo lang yung rules mo tapos balance yung position mo, at least safe ka.
[02:43] And yun, nung ma-stop out ako, napunta ko sa isang trade na bounce play. Ito, inaabangan ko ito eh. So, nung araw na parang hindi pa makalagin sa broker,
[02:56] ito, inaabangan ko yung bounce play. So, nasa loop ko yung green. Pero ano lang siya, halos 1 to 2 day reversal. So, quickie lang talaga. So, tuturo ko sa inyo kung ano, paano ko ba siya sinalo.
[03:08] So, una sa lahat, check muna natin yung trade trail ko. Ito. So eto So eto yung ano ano Dito makikita yung order history mo
[03:24] Tapos, sinerge ko lang yung green. So, buying. Punta natin yung buying. So, nagsimula akong mamili around 232, 227. Ayan. So, yung bulk ko talaga nasa 227.
[03:38] 200,000 shares. Tapos, makikita nyo dito So, yung execution ko nga, kapag parang medyo malaki na yung ina-accumulate mo, hindi talaga sya at a single price.
[03:51] So, tinatranch ko yan, depende sa galaw ng stock. Kaya ganyan ito, dalawang 100,000 sa 227, tapos umexecute ako sa 240, kasi gusto ko mag-add.
[04:03] Tapos, ito 246, dagdag pa ng konti, aggressive buy. Kasi ito, sobrang bariya na lang, 20,000 lang, 254. So, papansin nyo, pag pataas na pataas yung presyo, mas lumiliit yung allocation ko.
[04:18] So, ano yung trading strategy ko dito? Bakit ko ginawa ito? So, ito ay gap and previous resistance.
[04:31] So, yung dating major breakout point niya, tapos may gap breakout doon, yung gap na yan, in-expect ko maging support yan. So, makikita mo yung gap is between, so, linya natin ha para talagang makita.
[04:48] So, around 225 to, ano ba to, mga 239, parang ganyan. So, alam mo na yung range na to, based lang dito sa gap na to, yung pocket gap, 225 to 240, 230 plus.
[05:03] So, pagpasok sa range na to, dun na ako nagsustart mamili ng tranches ko. So, makita nyo yun, yun yung 232, 227. Tapos, buy up pataas 240 nung nagka-confirmation.
[05:19] Tapos, yung selling naman. So, yun. Ang style lang talaga pag magbo-bottom pick ka, hindi siya madali. Kasi, dito kadalasan yung pinaka nakakatakot na emotions ng market. pero
[05:31] if pinasok mo siya with discipline so yung binili ko kunyari gusto natin i-calculate so let's say ilan parang
[05:43] 550,000 shares yata total yun tapos average ko if I'm not mistaken 236 yan so pag in-calculate mo siya minultiply mo hindi ko na hindi ko na na-screenshot
[05:56] no sa yung support ko kasi one day trade eh Hindi ko na napicturean yung port view kapag mabilisan yung trade. So, historical na lang. So, yan. Yung capital ko around 1.1 plus
[06:10] M, 1.2, 1.3. Yan. So, balance siya. Hindi sobrang malaki. Sakto lang. So, sakto lang yung posisyon para makalabas agad kasi speculative itong stock na to.
[06:23] So, paano ko siya binenta? check natin 5 minute chart ito so pagka bounce nya dun diba nakabuo na akong position ko Average ko niya nasa 236 So let say dito Yan yung average ko
[06:44] So, stop loss ko doon below 230 or 225. Kapag nag-close below doon, babawas ako. Tapos, ito. So, makita ko siya nag-260 dito.
[06:56] Pero, I think, balikan natin yung selling ko. So, eto, pakita natin yung selling. So, nung nakita ko, ayun, within the day, intraday lang pala to.
[07:08] So, one day reversal talaga. Ayun. So, nung nakita, eto, 570,000 pala yung total shares ko. Ayun. So, nung nakita ko na parang, uy, humihina na to sa 250.
[07:20] Though, di pa naman patay, no? Pero, since yung play ko nga dito, one day reversal lang. Di rin ako kampanting hawakan to kasi medyo speculative stock, diba? So, parang pag ganun, may trust issue ka
[07:32] versus kasi kung alam mo talaga yung fundamentals nung stock may tiwala ka talaga or mas willing kang panghawakan to pero kung ganito, parang alam mo walang quickie lang to boy
[07:44] kailangan mainat ka, kasi baka madedo ka so ganun yung mindset ko nung nilaro ko to so selling ko mainly 252 binuhos ko 252, 251 ayan, naubos dun
[07:56] pero ang nilagay ko dito, 250 na lang para niraround down ko eh so I think siyan ba yun taga eh tigda natin yung exact time 2pm 247
[08:08] so yun nung nakita ko dito ayun dito nung medyo nakita ko na uy nag-aalanganin na hindi niya na ma-break yung 260 binagsak ko na so ano lang yun
[08:21] anticipatory sell ano lang siya parang nilimit ko yung upside ko dahil alam ko nga na medyo speculative and I'm only in it for the quick haul so yung nakita ko parang nag-aalangan na siya
[08:34] binuhos ko, pero hindi pa siya agad bumagsak, pero during the next day wala na siyang follow through so tama yung una kong assessment na
[08:46] quickie lang talaga, bounce play lang kasi kung malakas to sana nag ano pa to eh sana nag 2 to 3 day rally pa to, tas dito pa, pero wala, so tama pala yung una kong
[08:58] bias na, ah, di wala. Ano lang, parang quick sell lang talaga dito, maingat yung bias ko. So, yun, nag-pay off naman siya. Yan. So, ano lang,
[09:11] yun lang, pagka-fight doon, binetahan ko agad, 250. So, kung gusto nyo malaman magkano ba yung kinita natin dito, so, eto, in-excel ko lang, no, kasi hindi ko na na-screenshot yung court view.
[09:24] I-try natin calculate. So, average cost, average price tapos pagitan percentage
[09:43] tapos number of shares yung number of shares ko nasa 570,000 eh kita niyo naman so pag pinotar mo gross profit parang 570 times 0 nasa 85k
[10:01] Yan. So, sakto lang. Hindi sobrang significant. Quick play lang. Pwede na. Pang ano rin. Pambawas rin doon sa cut loss ko sa FGEN. So, yung mga ganito, ito yung may opportunity talaga sa market.
[10:15] kahit na kahit na parang alanganin yung index basta marunong kang pumosisyon sa mga
[10:27] tamang sitwasyon diba, ayan, pwede kang makahanap ng opportunities so ito mali, 570 pala shares ko dito so 1.3M yung nilagay ko
[10:39] yun, mabilisan lang, wala, hindi rin nag follow through, so tama yung bias ko. So, iba-ibang style yan guys. Bottom picking. Walang tamang style. Meron rin naman bottom picking pero nagt-trend
[10:51] talaga. Major reversal talaga. Ito nagkataon lang. Yung ano ko dito yung focus ko dito. Quick lang talaga. Mainat. So, yun. So far, tama yung bias natin.
[11:03] Wala rin follow through. Yung stock. So, pag ganito, okay na. Tsaka, mahirap yung bounce play guys. Ito yung siguro sa lahat ng klase ng play ito yung mga pinaka-challenging
[11:16] i-execute, highest emotions tapos tight na tight yung execution mo kasi paano kung hindi nag-reverse, paano kung hindi tumuloy diba, so may chance na islamdang papababa
[11:28] paano kung hindi mo nabenta within 1 to 2 days, kagaya na to, ayan na bumalik na halos sa cost ko dati diba, kung hindi ko na-dispatch sa nung time na yun, wala na either pagdapabayaan mo yan
[11:41] baka maging loss pa mababaon ka pa sa downtrend or mapupunta ka pa sa alanganina sitwasyon. So, yung mentality mo dapat sa mga ganito, dapat mabilisan talaga. Tsaka mas maingat ka, mas precise yung execution mo.
[11:55] So, yun. Sana natuto kayo sa trade session na ito. So, eto. Dito lang kami sa Investagrams. Marami pa tayong mga ituturo.
[12:07] Sana na-enjoy nyo yung mga videos natin. sana na tutuwa kayo sa mga sinishare natin and if you find it useful and helpful in your trading journey, please subscribe
[12:20] to our YouTube channel and pwede niyong bisitahin so eto di so punta lang kayo dito sa YouTube channel ni InvestorGrams marami tayong learning videos dito
[12:32] yan so eto guys, free learning na yan tsaka based on experience talaga pinapakita ko sa inyo transparent whether win or loss napakita ko sa inyo paano yung executional framework
[12:45] wala ka masyadong maikitang gumagawa ng ganito na transparent talaga, real talk real lessons so yun, gusto ko lang talaga may maambag sa mga kababayan natin sa community natin, sa investa
[12:58] and mga fellow Filipino investors and traders so yun, tulungan lang tayo kami sa investagrams marami pa kami kailangan i-focus So, kita-kits ulit tayo, guys and gals
[13:11] Salamat sa panunod