Bitcoin Market Analysis & Strategy — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:26] we're live now. Today we have with us Pipa Tal, as many of you know him from YouTube. He has a huge YouTube channel with 180,000 followers, or you might know him from his channel with almost 100,000 followers. It's

[00:41] a pleasure to have you here, David from Venezuela. He'll tell us a little about his experience here, what kind of investors he works with, and if we want to talk a little bit with him about the whole market. It's always very interesting to

[00:55] share different points of view. David, great, thank you very much for the invitation. I've been with the community since 2016 when I started talking about Bitcoin on YouTube, and it's been quite an

[01:08] YouTube, and it's been quite an of learning, growth, and falls. It's had a bit of everything, but

[01:20] growth is always the important thing at the end of the day. And here we are at a historic moment, I think, which is more important because it will define the Beatcoin, and we have this global situation that's happening, so of

[01:34] challenge to find the... What path to take in these circumstances? I buy a record, I sell Bitcoin, I'm out of the market, but another opportunity? Well, that's it for now. The idea is to try to shed some light on this from

[01:48] one's experience and explain to people what a strategy might be to survive these markets and win. It comes from 2016, a new life in the world of scripts or coins. Yes, basically, it's from

[02:03] that time that I started getting into the subject. What has been your biggest lesson learned? What could you tell other viewers regarding this type of market? You can't. A very volatile market is a

[02:17] seeing it with these drops where you go from euphoria to fear in a matter of a month, and this is something that has to be controlled. Yes, well, it's a good question to ask. So there are many lessons to be learned here.

[02:33] Luckily, I already had a certain foundation and had seen certain things in other markets that, in fact, for me, and those that make them up, are very similar to the volatility of commodities. I think they move so much, Carlos, in

[02:46] have a certain tendency to move. In that way, and well, it's been good to also get into economics, into many more things beyond trading and technical analysis.

[03:00] lot. I've always considered myself a person who is always learning, a perpetual student. And well, I've been focusing on my strengths, and I'm always learning. Basically, the intention is to

[03:15] share that. And as they've written, the world is very changeable, it's very fast-paced, something can happen at any moment, and you have to be able to adapt and have a solid plan. If you don't have a

[03:27] plan, an entry and exit strategy, well, you're very lost. What kind of investments, Davis? Because I've seen that you touch on different areas. I know you 're a hard-core holder, an old-school holder, and you also dabble in bonds. You dabble a little in the stock market,

[03:41] and it's really quite a complete investment. way to win in this market by being a long-term holder. It's something that

[03:54] anyone can invest in. It's no secret that a dollar strategy is desirable. To know how, you can acquire an asset that you believe will appreciate over time and obtain very high returns. Well, from a

[04:08] true that I've dedicated myself to working in the commodities market. I essentially like precious metals, and they've also been the subject of both investment and speculation. In this

[04:23] way, one builds experience with different assets. I have some favorites that I study every day for hours and hours and hours, and more or less, one manages to grasp their personality. Among them, it's

[04:36] obviously important to specialize in specific products, not so that, as you say, you know exactly how they move, if each asset has a

[04:51] personality. Of course, a trader can know technical analysis, but when they understand the personality of an asset, it's a great advantage. It's like there's a kind of connection between your instinct, what you think it's going to be,

[05:04] and then, if it's reinforced by your technical study, you say, "Hey, this has everything, both in terms of the feeling it gives you and what the chart tells you, that it's going to be a movement and could be an opportunity to generate some

[05:18] opportunity to generate some returns." You'd experienced moments of a certain psychosis with these types of drops, especially for short sellers. It's only recently

[05:34] because many people have entered the market in 2021, and as you said, it's not proven that in these types of markets, pure holders are the ones who

[05:46] ultimately get the highest returns. If you don't have a grasp of technical analysis to determine a possible exit or entry point in the market,

[05:59] many people criticize it, but in the long term, it's what will Only someone who truly doesn't understand this, who has no Look, we're beating

[06:14] investment funds and managers in terms of profitability. I also highly recommend studying it. I have a book here that's like my bible; I always have it with me. It's " Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John Murphy, volume 6. It's very comprehensive,

[06:27] a bit thick, but I assure you it's a very good read. I haven't finished reading it all, but I always have it marked. I'm reviewing things, and well, it's a book that I think anyone who wants to do technical analysis should

[06:41] know. And then, well, the holding philosophy is simply as the word says. Holding onto something or owning something for a long time is actually the best example of Warren Buffett's winnings. People who buy never sell. In

[06:54] It's one of the great things that people do n't understand why, because selling an asset at a profit is a taxable event. And what rich people do is use their assets as collateral to take out a loan,

[07:07] and that's a different situation. So, the secrets I was talking about... So, the secrets I was talking about... we have examples of how his philosophy works. For example, since I've also

[07:21] followed the stock market, I can tell you that companies like Nvidia spent 16 years in a price range between $9 and $2, and then finally saw a 2,000% return at the end of 2016-2017, settling at prices of

[07:36] at least $240, which is what it's at right now. So, it's a game of 20 or 15 years of investment in an asset. Cryptocurrencies are for those who, in a second comparison, can have those returns in a year or a few months.

[07:52] So, where is it? The issue is that people are entering this social media coming in. When you and I started, these social networks weren't as developed as they are now, and everyone was selling their

[08:07] knowledge for exorbitant prices. There are many people who criticize because maybe you have an academy, I have another one, but I remember a stock market trading course in its early days. We went from the luxury level where they gave a

[08:20] free lecture, but then the seminar cost 20,000 pesos if you wanted to trade with a stock market strategy. So I remember it was useless in the beginning, especially for finding information. Nowadays, you go on YouTube and you have

[08:36] a tutorial on how they work. It's like Change, Andrés. In the MT Box era, they were the old-school ones. Andrés. In the MT Box era, they were the old-school ones. Bitcoin forum where they would post a white paper of a project yesterday. You had to trust it, you had to

[08:49] read information in English, pay attention to them. Nowadays it's very marked, and if now it's a digested mess because we content creators already think like, "I do n't like to think for others

[09:04] because if..." We've digested the information so you have it, and clearly, anyway, the market moves, it does what it's going to do, and sometimes, well, your analyses don't come true, but that's part

[09:18] of the experience, and people have to understand that there's no such thing as being 100% right here. There was understand that there's no such thing as being 100% right here. There was William Clemente, who said that most of his

[09:33] friends' analyses were wrong. What he meant here was risk management: when they were right, they got the maximum return on a move, and when they were wrong, well, Friday, because of the final stock. This is a

[09:48] very, very volatile and difficult market, and you have to make mistakes. I think we've all learned from making mistakes in this whole world; it's in this whole world; it's essential.

[10:08] like to analyze the market a bit with you. What do you think from your point of view? What kind of analysis have you done? Do you want us to see your chart to see what divisions you have? What thoughts are you having with the

[10:22] bit chart? If you want, we can share it when it comes. Here we have it. They can share it when it comes. Here we have it. They had to see it. Yes, perfect. Well, had to see it. Yes, perfect. Well, here we are. ACM futures,

[10:39] forming, a safer harmonic, which you can see here, and within a structure that resembles a kind of rising ETS. Something very curious in futures is that we have a backwardation situation here. That is,

[10:55] we normally see that the futures price is below the current price, and I recommend that people research what backwardation means so they understand the situation we are experiencing right now. So, what

[11:08] happens from my point of view? Several scenarios. First, I like to analyze the futures chart to find... let's see, now we have gaps, a number that closed the other day, exactly below 33,000. Wasn't that what

[11:23] we expected? Let me see if I can zoom in a little, and you can see here. We had one that was at that point. We're talking about the support at 40,000, which seemed like it could make some kind of pullback,

[11:37] but in the end, it closed through the gap. Now, what are the scenarios I see? Well, the next gap, in my opinion, that could be important to observe is here, which forms this

[11:52] support zone. I'm playing this rectangle and it's basically at $96,000 and $24,000, which could cause it to extend if the same pattern breaks. It's safer, it doesn't invalidate it, it's still

[12:07] valid, okay? But we could see that final extension towards that $26,000 and $24,000 level spot price more or less in the same territory. Only if

[12:21] this support holds, the $28, $30, and $ 33 zone, and what I want is that if we break $ 33 we can go straight down. Well, look, in this market we know that people buy very aggressively, it could be a 'flash

[12:35] crash,' something very quick, and then suddenly reverse. It's difficult to know the movement and pull back quickly. If someone wanted to anticipate this, they would have to have some orders already placed here and

[12:51] executed at the price that would be within this range. This wouldn't be the zone of maximum fear or maximum pain, where people would think this is going to zero people would think this is going to zero and it would clean up

[13:08] and keeps going. In that scenario, let's assume the most negative and fear-inducing one that could happen. Well, secondly, the price immediately shows a pullback,

[13:21] and we would perhaps return within the structure. It would be very quick, I think. Of course, we have to analyze it because there's already a lot of leverage, and the opening 3 has been... here we're going to decide... unloaded from what... so, I don't know... maybe we wouldn't

[13:36] see a liquidation cascade. Notice that it was down; it has been more... it seems more like an orderly exit from the market, unlike the one we had in May, which was much better. These are the most dangerous ones, these that go

[13:51] slowly, that fall. They are dangerous because they stop at each support level, and it seems like it's going to bounce and break through them. Exactly, it's very orderly. So it could be that they took profits from this rally. It could be...

[14:06] from this rally. It could be... OK, that's one of the situations that would be the a xylophone going down, a panic, to be exact. And I think it wouldn't

[14:22] on this. Yes, yes, yes, me too, and science and rigor... or 6 would be something Quickly, what I 've seen is that it's not just the retailer who's scared. I really see that the big players who took great care of their Bitcoin holdings—like the

[14:39] we posted a metric that talked about this, which was a bit dangerous because long-term holders who had held their Bitcoin for 7, 8, 10 years hadn't moved their wallets. It doesn't mean they've sold them, but

[14:53] a metric, a little bit, when you see Montero's goal, we understand that they understand the market perfectly because they're already cool. It's understood sell them, so it's also somewhat dangerous. It's good if we analyze

[15:07] someone today with 100 Bitcoins. At the peak of this market cycle, they had 67 selling, and I would have done the same. I mean, it's very tempting to have that amount of Bitcoin and sell, especially if you come

[15:23] from a time when, as we discussed, Bitcoins were practically given away, costing less than 100 dollars. Obviously, those holders are selling, but for me, that's simply a distribution, and well, it has to happen because, I mean, those who

[15:37] have Very small balances, 0.01, 0.1, are accumulating and are at their maximum, unlike the very large ones. So I see it as another game where the retailer is going to take more position, and that distribution has to

[15:50] happen. That move, of course, is what it is for 10, and in Bitcoin, they're going to sell the see on the chain, but the 100 ones were sold, so it makes sense. Maybe they're scared about what the Federal Reserve might do, or they're simply

[16:04] taking profits. Okay, so this is the most negative scenario. Now, as I always say, well, of course, we wo n't be able to see the future chart, but what follows is studying

[16:18] the long-term trend of Bitcoin because what is the advantage of the situation I'm seeing here? If the price returns and enters and completes the formation, which sometimes we can have excess volatility that, although it doesn't

[16:32] point of view, my experience, it continues to maintain its integrity, it maintains what it's maintain its integrity, it maintains what it's telling us. Do

[16:46] talking about, is like the track of the COB and what it did? He made the Excel chart in a V shape and it went out of the structure, but it kept coming back in and remaining stable. Do you think if there's an easy sell-off it would be due to a fundamental problem,

[17:00] or in a standard way? Well, look, the only way, like an orderly fall, could be that perhaps a fundamental issue gives one last push for something. The only

[17:16] fundamental issue I see is what the Federal Reserve is going to say in March and any comments the central banker makes. central banker makes. Today there was a small sell-off because

[17:28] basically Lagarde from the European Central Bank said that, well, they were going to consider, perhaps in the future, without repeating those words, that they could start to stop printing money. So, well, those kinds of situations cause fear.

[17:43] important, and that is that we have to keep checking the oscillation indicators. They rarely show us divergences. Okay, here in the futures we see that one is starting to form,

[17:57] we see that one is starting to form, and it has to do with the histogram, the MACD, and for example here, and we see that it coincides with lows in the price. That's considering the

[18:12] oversold zone, which is there, plus the historical support we have here. It could also be The fact that we're already in the final stages, meaning it's no longer a divergence, indicates whether there's going to be a pullback here. The action is giving us clues, and

[18:27] I truly have a lot of respect for divergences, especially at important support and resistance levels. Honestly, from experience, I wouldn't oppose a double divergence, for example, in a deep MAC

[18:40] or those kinds of complex situations. In fact, I think we can was drawing it today, and we have it here. Look at the Espresso

[18:52] Spots, and you can clearly see the difference in both the the difference in both the histogram and the moving averages. I think that's quite dangerous to short here. To clarify, it's

[19:08] a bullish divergence because we're seeing in the oscillator that they're making higher lows, and the price is making lower lows. I'm going to have a reversal,

[19:20] and coincidentally, a divergence of regular-type adhesion. There are two types: the tells us about trend changes and reversals. So, that situation

[19:32] reversals. So, that situation makes it very curious. I also see that the same pattern we had more or less in the drop is repeating itself. In the last Repeating with similar behavior in this area, which has

[19:46] formed an irregular plane, from a genius's point of view, and I think that irregular plane is usually considered bullish, okay? And in this plane that we have here, sometimes, well, if this situation, as I say, there are many

[20:01] indicators, or rather, there are indications of many types, artists of oscillation indicators, chained data that tell us that the worst of the sell-off is over, all the music is being prescribed for the

[20:15] holder. What they really want is an area where it's not a bad area to start making purchases. We could have this capitulation that you mention at 2025, but it's already happening now, coming from 70,000, we are already at 30,000.

[20:30] we are already at 30,000. 6 is also important, for me, it's key, 6 is also important, for me, it's key, LD EFE, which has been analyzed extensively, LD EFE, which has been analyzed extensively,

[20:43] we also have bearish ones, sometimes the opposite happens and the price falls. Well, we also have three key gaps that at some point, for

[20:55] example, I maintain the theory that if the EDF returns and reaches this area, we have... A repeat with 40,000, 39,000, or 40,000 in the worst-case scenario, and from there, the impulse waves begin. Let's say these aren't

[21:10] hypothetical drawings; technical analysis isn't a 100% exact science. I consider it a combination of science and art, and it depends on the analyst and their experience how they resolve each situation and their

[21:24] projections. But, as I said, in the future we have a backwardation situation that needs to be studied. We have these gaps We have these gaps in the DF, in this F, and of course, all

[21:37] the one-chain metrics speak of exhaustion, especially large smaller pairs that are accumulating a maximum. So it's a very interesting situation. I also see very low open interest at the

[21:52] moment, and that's good because if open interest were rising... And the price will continue to fall. I don't know if it would be a pretty negative situation. I think hovering around the bottom. Possibly, these are situations that

[22:06] can lead to a squeeze on the price. What I see is same pattern; they 're also at their bottom with an 85 percent correction or more. And well, if we analyze the philosophy of simply

[22:22] buying low and selling high, well, we 're in that position. If you ask me, simply from that maxim of the tests, where everyone seems to be using -1 on social media, where everyone tells you they sold and are buying

[22:34] tells you they sold and are buying down, well, So, well, that's the situation I 'm basically seeing there. I also

[22:48] see that the DX is doing something interesting. Another pattern, the requirement for... well, so that viewers understand, they're not looking at the DX, if it's the dollar index. It usually works as a counter-

[23:02] indicator; the more the dollar falls, the more likely Bitcoin is to rise. I monitor it quite a bit, also the XY, because it's interesting. Exactly. Well, it seems you're not in a

[23:15] harmonic pattern. The reversal here has kept me on this trend, but you and I know that when we have an upward channel against the prevailing trend, it can act as a continuation pattern. So, since the trend has been, since

[23:31] the Kobe crisis started here in March 2020, to dilute the dollar to support the economy—that is, they printed a lot—I do n't see why that's going to stop. And well, we would be in a situation where it

[23:43] gives us false breakouts and becomes very volatile depending on the news. But I think if it loses the 94.6 level, this zone here, we could see the next target, which would be at the neckline of the harmonic pattern.

[23:59] would be interesting to see the index fall, at least to see Bitcoin have a relief alpha bounce. It's active, which is also a key zone that the market has memory of. And well, it would have support here, without a doubt. Now that we

[24:15] 're looking at the DX stock market system, stock market correlation? What do you think of the future of the stock market? Big crisis, times that result in

[24:28] thoughts. Here we have the S&P 500, I've been following it, well, it's giving a unique opportunity in my opinion. which crossed its 200-period moving average on the daily chart, crossed its 200-period moving average on the daily chart,

[24:42] something that hadn't happened since

[24:54] well, look, there's a saying on Wall Street that goes, " Prices rise on a wall of worries," which is more or less the translation from English. And well, while sometimes the fundamentals

[25:08] change and it seems that market sentiment turns negative, it's the moment for us to enter. You have to be able to allocate your position.

[25:22] that all the indicators are showing quite strong oversold conditions. We broke through, interesting pattern that I've seen in other indices as well, like the Nace, breaking that 200-period moving average and rebounding. It's making a test breakout above,

[25:38] possibly to continue rising. I think it's a downward corrective phase, I think it's a downward corrective phase, a type that was a great deep in a long time. There are also a series of

[25:52] candlestick combinations that I've already seen, specifically these two, but I also closely follow candlestick patterns, like the inverted hammer, especially at a inverted hammer, especially at a support level more than usual. If they are

[26:06] together when this combination occurs and we see that the losses of these sessions are reversed, what it really means is that the price is going to rise. That's my opinion based on my

[26:20] experience over time. What would be good for Bitcoin is for the stock market to give us a little time so that it can continue rising and not break through, not capitulate. It takes 20 minutes and the market stays in the range here, maintaining its tone and continuing to

[26:34] hold in the upper zone. It could possibly continue rising and even reach the TH. studying correlation isn't simple.

[26:47] We'll see that it does have correlation, but it's not in the way people think. When fear in the market—let's say everything is correlated—it happens in the fall because the dollar strengthens, for example, and we see that

[27:01] all assets seem to move. What also have a position in Kryptonite. So, of course, the volatility of cryptocurrencies compared to the stock market is much greater, and therefore liquidates

[27:16] positions that need to be added to other stock markets to cover losses, added to other stock markets to cover losses, and also on the margin. The really, because what you're saying isn't about the writers. It's a highly

[27:31] volatile product, and people who work in the stock market are more conservative; if the market falls, they get out of the risk, and that's why it has that correlation. And well, now that I

[27:43] we have four very strong candlesticks, in my opinion, for the S&P. This combination of two candlesticks, as you can see, a hammer, to see if it closes tomorrow because we would have see if it closes tomorrow because we would have an inverted hammer and the

[27:58] regular hammer in a key support zone for the area you had marked before. Yes, exactly. But on a weekly chart, if these two candlesticks close like this and there's better confirmation, we see a high

[28:13] here. This will really take the S&P to 5000 set for the S&P 500. It's really around here this afternoon; it would be a new all-time high for the stock market

[28:28] if these seven candlestick patterns are confirmed, plus all the oversold indicators and divergences. Well, yes, it's also touching the 50-day moving average, and as I said, it's been a long time since this happened. We acted as a bad

[28:44] line, and really It has swung to the 50-50 moving average, I wouldn't see it perfectly at 2050, and we see a significant volume stop, very large, very large, very large. So, if you ask me, I think there's a lot of

[29:00] fear, essentially due to some alarmist issues from the tabloid press. And there's another key I'd like to share with people, which is that I closely follow the VIX. The BEAT has been quite volatile, as you can

[29:18] easing. Every time it eases, asset prices rise considerably. Okay, so you can see it's quite cyclical. And well, here the pandemic started.

[29:33] We see that it reached its peak when all the markets fell, although simultaneously. Then, after it eased, a massive bull market began, which we've seen so far. You can clearly see the big one started to fall.

[29:47] So, these situations have occurred in every crisis. Here we had when, infamously, Dain Powell raised interest rates in 2018, causing a crash Marquis de Discos. All these events were n't isolated; they were all

[30:02] correlated. Okay. The beer market in Victor began with an interest rate hike that reached 2 percent. Once this ended, around 2019, we saw the rally from Victor, from 3,000 to 14 degrees.

[30:14] After that, there was another rally, after seeing if it reached one of the peaks, and the correlation was found, and it's perfect here. But these are opportunities to buy, when it relaxes, is when pool markets begin. And then we could go back further;

[30:28] we could even look at the 2008 crisis. Let's see if I can mention it; I think it was the biggest. Here it is, 2008-2009,

[30:43] and that's when, for example, I was following precious metals at that time. Gold rose from $300 to $1,900 in this process of the beat easing. So this is an indicator that you absolutely have to follow.

[30:56] this is an indicator that you absolutely have to follow. actually think the VIX is going to drop a lot; the fear index is going to drop a lot when it's clear, but I think the central banks... They're not going to do anything

[31:09] to combat inflation. I don't know if I had a diagram here that was clearer; there was a kind of head and shoulders pattern with the VIX

[31:23] forming a neckline here because we had something here that was more or less because we had something here that was more or less forming, and that would take us to the lowest level it could reach. That's when we see

[31:36] could reach. That's when we see those highs in the markets, here would be the neckline. After the VIX falls from this neckline, well, we would see a significant relaxation to key lows. If

[31:51] we study that correlation between the VIX, the DX, and the S&P 500, we can more or less get an idea of ​​the macroeconomic trend it will have over time. So for now, we see a change in the bond market, which is also another indicator

[32:07] that we have to follow very, very closely. The debt market is the largest market in the world, and it's being badly damaged by inflation. That's why bond prices falling. For example, here we have 10-year Italian bonds. So what

[32:23] happens? Investors sell, and when they sell the bond, the interest rate rises. So, it leads to a correlation. The inverse of the interest rate would rise if it were here on the same graph and the bond price falls.

[32:36] more difficult for governments to finance themselves in these circumstances, and this generates a significant movement of cash from one asset group to another. When sovereign debt finally finds itself in this situation,

[32:51] won't yield returns above inflation. We're going to see these kinds of bond sell-offs. Interest rates are going to skyrocket, and the money will flow out of the bond market to other assets, which I think will be gold, and of

[33:06] like commodities and energy are going to skyrocket. In that scenario, skyrocket. In that scenario, plummet. So, well, that's the expected scenario,

[33:19] and of course, I personally expect it could happen. I agree with you, David, also on the issue of safe-haven assets: gold and silver. I've also been analyzing the silver chart; it has a

[33:38] people I mentioned take a look. And gold too. Not every time we've had—I was going to ask you now—we've always had severe crises. Assets like gold and silver have... It's gone up a lot, and I wanted to get your opinion

[33:52] on what you think the future of its movement is slow, which is macroeconomics, and it's quite slow. Well, before we

[34:06] gold and silver, it's good for listeners to know that in the gold and silver ratio, what's basically happening now is that 80 means that 80 ounces of silver buy one ounce of gold. This ratio tells us when one of the

[34:21] metals is more expensive than the other. This ratio was historically established before 1998 because it goes back much further, in fact, historically, hundreds of years ago, it was basically between 10 and 20 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold. So

[34:36] we can see which of the two metals is more undervalued; it's silver. In fact, it 's the only one that hasn't surpassed its historical highs, and that makes it a historical highs, and that makes it a

[34:49] predict that it could return to its levels where it is at 40 to one, or even lower levels like 30 to one. So, for that to happen, the value of an ounce of silver, which is currently at 25, depends on the price I get it for. It already

[35:02] much higher value, in the triple digits. So, that's about it. Now, you asked me a question about macroeconomics; could you repeat it, please?

[35:38] silver because I believe it's an undervalued asset, and I think it could have a very interesting return in the coming years. But I was asking you a little bit about your

[35:50] asking you a little bit about your global economy, of macroeconomics, because I personally see that the saying that a crisis is coming, crisis after crisis,

[36:04] and all we see is the economy continuing to reach record highs. Yes, well, we have to differentiate between economies. I would say that the financial economy, the stock market, and all that are one thing, and the real economy is another. The real economy is in freefall; the

[36:17] real economy is in freefall; the more assets rise, the more they are. So, they are two completely different worlds. My prediction for the economy is this: we have governments that have reached record debt levels; for example, the

[36:30] US reached 30 trillion dollars. There's debt, but then there are unfunded liabilities equation. These are unfunded liabilities, for example, promises of future social security payments and pensions. We also have to add the

[36:45] local debt of regional governments, municipalities, and smaller, more concrete things. In Spain, I think these would include autonomous communities and similar entities. They also have their debts, and the way to obtain income to pay those debts is through

[36:59] taxes, which you're already trying to take from people, leading to over-indebtedness, economic activity, there are fewer opportunities, so it's a big problem. able to pay the debt through taxes? Are they going to print money? Then we

[37:14] which will cause many businesses to retire in the next 5 to 10 years. So we already have countries with Portugal and Germany. It's predicted that by 2030 their

[37:29] populations will be much smaller. So how are they going to cope with the accounts they already have today? Remember, taking on debt for the future is taking on future prosperity. Future money to spend today if we take on future debt—that is,

[37:42] debt for money we haven't earned yet—okay, we're here to spend it, and we haven't solved today's economic problems. We're basically blowing up the future our children might have. So, in that scenario, it almost

[37:56] seems like a stroke of luck that Bitcoin suggests an option to create a digital economy and develop a form of deflationary money that increases its purchasing power over time and serves as a kind of

[38:11] for the future. That's my opinion. Basically, if this system continues to advance, or this projection, there are many other things that need to be considered, but I think this is the essential one: demographics and debt. What they're

[38:27] essential one: demographics and debt. What they're basically leading us down is a path where we know they're not going to fulfill the promises of the future. Well, obviously, we have to prepare with hard assets; that's the

[38:39] first thing. Then, from there, we'll see the paradigm shift, and Bitcoin will really become a unit of account. For this to happen, there would have to be an energy crisis, in the world of energy prices and in

[38:52] the status of the dollar as a currency. The world reserve is because when the world reserve is because when the US took the dollar off the gold standard, the first thing Nixon and the US did was negotiate with the Australians, the largest

[39:06] oil producer and still is, so that they would only accept dollars for oil. That's what kept the demand for dollars afloat, that is, to buy goods. Now we see that with this problem of the

[39:18] dollar's inflection, a sovereign debt crisis, sanctions, and we see countries like Russia considering mining Bitcoin to avoid sanctions, we see that we could reach a scenario where energy-producing countries

[39:31] might use the Bitcoin network because it is the resort and censorship, with a fish cable that would allow them to do business with or without government approval. Then, in that scenario, the discounted price

[39:46] will have a dramatic overnight appreciation. My other warning is that, In that scenario, the new holder will possibly not be able to withdraw Bitcoin from the extended networks. These will be... we've already

[40:00] seen what happens, for example, last year when they crashed and you couldn't see your last year when they crashed and you couldn't see your balance or access your account. So, keep that in mind. One of the things I would have in mind to

[40:14] energy problem—is to look at oil prices. Friends, they're already at $90 a oil prices. Friends, they're already at $90 a barrel, fell to zero with the crisis.

[40:32] technically speaking, at around $300 a barrel, it sounds crazy, but well, that's the technical analysis. Although it has broken an important trend line from broken an important trend line from the highs of 2008 and 2014, and now it's here, and it's

[40:46] coming from negative, minus 40, in the 2020 crisis, which went into negative territory. Exactly what's happening is that, as a catalyst, there have been bad policies regarding carbon and

[41:01] global warming. We haven't invested in the sector. The world is going to reopen, the demand for energy is going to return, and when that happens, well, price of oil. This could be very, very, very fast. Maybe it will be

[41:17] affect many things, especially fertilizers. Fertilizers are made we affect food prices, and so on. Well, it's a chain of things. when the day is approaching when we might see a

[41:31] dangerous situation for the world, it's the price of oil, friends. And well, it's basically headed toward that target. The Saudi king, who I believe recently passed away, also said in an interview that he saw the price of

[41:47] oil at $300. So, well, it coincidentally coincided with So, well, it coincidentally coincided with my very basic analysis of trend lines and harmonic movements. But I think we're heading there, toward a

[42:00] barrel, and that's going to trigger a problematic situation. So, without being fatalistic, what we need is to have hard assets, to know that prices at any given moment, in a liquidity crisis

[42:15] Prices can be anything because the important thing, as far as I'm concerned, is how many ounces of gold and silver you have, what assets that aren't denominated in dollars. That would be the key in my opinion.

[42:29] And it's already starting, we're already starting to see news about fishing... Raw material shortages are already starting to appear in small clips that hint at

[42:41] possible energy shortages, raw material shortages, and talk of China and such. So, where there's smoke, there's fire, and raw material shortages, and talk of China and such. So, where there's smoke, there's fire, and Finally, we're preparing people for what could be just like this.

[42:55] And well, I think we're going to witness—it's already record transfer of wealth in human history. We've never had in the world that wasn't backed by gold. The entire system of origin is

[43:09] entirely gold-backed; that's never happened before. Okay, so the consequences of this are truly unpredictable. What we can count on is that Bitcoin's monetary policy is strict. There's no one in charge for

[43:26] those who are worried, they're concerned about whether Bitcoin or something like that can be altered. For me, it's like the Bible in the sense that there have been attempts to destroy the Bible on many copies of it everywhere. And the

[43:45] where we had the largest percentage of the Haier mining network, percentage of the Haier mining network, spectacularly, meaning it showed us the power and durability of

[43:59] power and durability of this system. hardware migration in the shortest time in history, and we have returned to the maximum computing or processing capacity in

[44:14] history. Also, a study from several prestigious universities in the United Kingdom has come out—talking about the threat of quantum computing—for a Bitcoin, it would need to be a million times more powerful than the ones we have

[44:28] today, and those levels are not expected to be reached for at least 20 years. So, for those who are worried about this situation, I think there would be many more vulnerable networks than Beacon's and much more attractive targets. If

[44:42] quantum processing, meaning that at the security and block production level— which is all that matters, regardless of what happens with the price of Lincoln or with fundamentals in the world—each block is produced every ten minutes,

[44:55] delivers the reward, and is the most stable network in that sense, then it's finite, programmable, adaptive, distributed, and its rules cannot change, and there's a limited number. Therefore, for me, that's fundamental, key, and it's

[45:10] easily move borders, and if a country's legislation collapses, you can go to another, or simply, to give you a few words, floating memory networks, and that's good. It gives brutal versatility

[45:24] in this macro scenario to the complex that we 're entering. Yes, I agree with everyone to stay. In the end, if you can't beat them, join them, and I

[45:38] think the systems are going to have to accept it and adapt in the best way possible because we are becoming more numerous, the system is growing more and more, and well, it's a

[45:51] technology that doesn't depend on the today, which, frankly, aren't. Well, this payroll is obsolete, the current monetary system is outdated, so this has to change, whether through

[46:06] way. Very well, David, we'll wrap up the chat for today. It's been really interesting discussing everything with you about the stock market and the financial ecosystem. It's been

[46:21] a pleasure having you here, and I hope we can have you again. We've been very grateful to have you, and you've shared a lot of wisdom. I hope all our listeners have taken advantage of it and taken notes because it's an

[46:35] and taken notes because it's an open bible, David. Thank you very much. We'll see you again sometime. And we'll do more collaborations in the future, I'm sure. Perfect! You can follow David on Twitter, you have his handle below, @

[46:47] debat.com. has a huge channel, and he's very active on Twitter, so I recommend you give him a very active on Twitter, so I recommend you give him a live follow. That's all from me. David, thank you

[47:01] very much, and we'll see you next time, for sure. we'll see you next time, for sure. A hug, bye!