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Bitcoin Dropped 52%, But This Is Just the Beginning

0h 08m video Published Feb 9, 2026 Transcribed Jul 24, 2026 IKIGAI IKIGAI
Intermediate 4 min read For: Cryptocurrency investors and traders interested in technical analysis and bear market strategies.
AI Trust Score 65/100
⚠️ Average / Some Fluff

"Title promises a 52% drop and 'just the beginning' – the video delivers bearish analysis and targets, but the specific 52% figure is not mentioned in the transcript."

AI Summary

In this urgent video, Sergey provides a bearish outlook on the cryptocurrency market, predicting further declines and advising a strategy of gradual accumulation. He revises his earlier expectations for an upward correction, now anticipating deeper corrections and a prolonged bear market.

[00:01]
Video Introduction and Market Overview

Sergey introduces the video as an urgent update on the crypto market, outlining his vision and action plan. He asks for support via likes, comments, and subscriptions.

[00:18]
Global Bear Market Warning

Sergey states he has been warning throughout 2025 about the start of a bear market in cryptocurrency and has given targets for gradual accumulation.

[00:45]
Market Cap Chart Analysis

He expected a deeper upward correction followed by a sharp decline to the Fibonacci 0.382 level, but the correction was shallow and the decline happened sooner, altering his expectations.

[01:13]
Revised Expectation: Deep Upward Correction in 2026

Sergey now expects a deep upward correction in the first half of 2026 from the Fibonacci 0.382 level, after which the bear market decline will continue.

[01:41]
Altcoin Capitalization Outlook Changed

He previously expected altcoin capitalization to slightly update its global maximum during the correction, but now he does not expect this update. He expects a deeper correction and continued decline.

[02:09]
Bitcoin Weekly Chart and Bull Market Structure

Sergey explains that Bitcoin has been in a global bull market since 2008, but he assumes the structure has ended, leading to a potentially deeper and longer bear market.

[02:56]
Price Targets: $30,000 and $15,000

The next target is the Fibonacci 0.618 level around $30,000, and a more likely target is the wave four minimum around $15,000. He emphasizes no one knows the exact bottom.

[03:54]
Action Plan: Shift to Reliable Assets

Sergey has moved funds from less reliable altcoins to more reliable ones (Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Tron, Solana) due to changed expectations. He focuses on long-term investments (3-5 years).

[05:05]
Investment Reserve and Gradual Accumulation

He outlines a public capital project with a $1,000/month salary, building an investment reserve to buy during deeper declines. The goal is to accumulate assets, not seek immediate profit.

[06:47]
Personal Capital and Portfolio Allocation

Sergey shares his personal capital results (200% profit from 2022-2025) and his new cycle portfolio. He recommends crypto be no more than 20-30% of total capital, with gradual accumulation over 1-2 years.

Sergey advises viewers to focus on accumulating reliable crypto assets during the bear market, using an investment reserve to buy at lower prices. He emphasizes patience and long-term perspective, comparing the current period to the sowing phase in 2022.

Mentioned in this Video

Study Flashcards (6)

What is Sergey's global outlook for cryptocurrency in 2025?

easy Click to reveal answer

He warns about the start of a bear market.

00:18

What Fibonacci level did Sergey initially expect as a target for the decline?

medium Click to reveal answer

0.382

00:57

When does Sergey expect a deep upward correction to form?

medium Click to reveal answer

In the first half of 2026.

01:13

What are the two price targets for Bitcoin mentioned?

hard Click to reveal answer

$30,000 (Fibonacci 0.618) and $15,000 (wave four minimum).

03:21

What percentage of total capital does Sergey recommend allocating to cryptocurrency?

easy Click to reveal answer

20-30%.

07:19

Which assets does Sergey consider most reliable for long-term investment?

medium Click to reveal answer

Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Tron, and Solana.

08:02

💡 Key Takeaways

💡

Bear Market Warning

Sets the bearish tone for the entire video and aligns with the title's claim of a major drop.

00:18
🔧

Revised Correction Timeline

Shows the creator's adaptability and provides a specific timeframe for a potential upward move.

01:13
📊

Bitcoin Price Targets

Gives concrete, actionable price levels for viewers to watch, adding credibility.

03:21
⚖️

Long-Term Investment Focus

Encourages a disciplined, patient approach rather than chasing short-term gains.

05:05
⚖️

Portfolio Allocation Rule

Provides a clear risk management guideline (20-30% crypto allocation).

07:19

[00:01] name is Sergey. This is a channel. And today we have an urgent video about the cryptocurrency market. I will give a short overview in which I will outline my vision and my plan of action within the framework of the current market situation. And if this video is

[00:18] useful for you, I would be grateful for your support in the form of likes, comments, and subscription to the channel. And now we begin. So, globally, we are on track, as I have been warning you all through 2025 about the start of a bear

[00:33] market in cryptocurrency, and also giving you targets for gradual accumulation. But locally we went a little off-plan, and let's figure it out together. This is a chart of the

[00:45] total cryptocurrency market capitalization. And here I expected the formation of a deeper upward correction. And only after this, a sharp impulse

[00:57] only after this, a sharp impulse decline to the Fibonacci level of 0382. But, as we can see, the correction was shallow, and the price immediately made this downward impulse. Because of this, my expectations have changed a little.

[01:13] First, I want to note that I still expect a deep upward correction to form in the first half of 2026. Let me erase this 2026. Let me erase this designation and indicate this

[01:27] movement. This means that we will most likely experience a deeper upward deeper upward correction from the Fibonacci level of 0382. After that, the decline will continue. Decline within a bear market. And

[01:41] as you remember, based on the capitalization of altcoins, I expected that during this upward correction, the global maximum here would be slightly updated. But now I

[01:53] don't expect this update. Although the structure I noted has not yet been broken, my expectations for altcoin capitalization have changed. And here I also expect the formation of a deeper upward correction and after

[02:09] that a continuation of the decline. Let me explain why I expect a continuation of the decline to be more likely. Let's return to the Bitcoin chart. This is a weekly time frame, and I already said that the price is within the framework of a larger

[02:26] global bull market that has been going on since 2008, that is, since the inception of Bitcoin. And all the bear markets within this movement, they were roughly the same. But now I assume that the structure of this bull market

[02:41] has ended, so the next bear market in cryptocurrency should, in theory, be deeper and longer than previous bear markets. And given this sharply impulsive decline, it is quite likely

[02:56] that this will happen. We have now achieved the bare minimum goal. But this goal does not concern the correction of the senior degree. That is, if the price continues its upward movement from the current ones, then this is not the bearish market that I

[03:09] this is not the bearish market that I expected. But if our scenario expected. But if our scenario is realized, the decline will continue. And the next target is the Fibonacci level 0618.

[03:21] And again, this is one of the minimum targets of the higher-degree correction that I expect. This target is in the region of $30,000. And the next target, which is more likely for this correction, is the minimum of wave four. That

[03:37] is, this value, which is located in the region of 15,000 dollars. Neither I nor anyone else knows where the market bottom will be, so I recommend accumulating assets gradually. I always accumulate any asset gradually,

[03:54] because I know that I don’t know where the bottom will be, so I create it with my gradual purchases. And now I want to share the actions that I have already taken and that I will take. For example, in Telegram I outlined

[04:08] some of the transfers of funds in accordance with the plan into more reliable assets. Why? Because the structures of these altcoins have, firstly, become more complex. And secondly, if I no longer

[04:21] expect a renewal of the global maximum in the capitalization of altcoins, then these climactic impulses may either not occur at all, or the price may remain in the range for a very long time before that. And, understandably, in order to

[04:35] protect myself, I moved from less reliable assets to more reliable assets. And these culminating impulses, they were short-term investments, that is, investments within the framework of this upward correction

[04:50] that I expected. And since the price didn't make the deep upward correction I expected, my focus is now exclusively on long-term investments in cryptocurrencies, that is, on those investments that are

[05:05] calculated for at least 3-5 years ahead. A QR code has now appeared on the screen in the Telegram channel. I outline all actions within the public capital framework for an investment project from scratch. That is, this is a project with a

[05:18] salary of $1,000 per month. And if you follow this project, you can see that we quite often put money aside in the investment reserve. It is precisely the investment reserve that will be the

[05:35] key factor for the correct selection of positions within the current bear market. That is, yes, I am gradually accumulating as the decline progresses, slowly, but at the same time, I am building up an investment reserve so that when

[05:48] some of my main goals are realized, if a deeper decline occurs, I can realize it and lower my average purchase prices as low as possible, towards the global market bottom. That is, we are now going through a period of accumulation. And within

[06:03] this accumulation period, we need to be prepared for the fact that we will not see profits in the prepared for the fact that we will not see profits in the cryptocurrency market for a very long time. Now, the more volume we accumulate in assets that correspond to our

[06:17] investment declaration, the better for us. The lower the price falls, the better for us. What we need to focus on now is not the profitability, but the number of assets acquired. This is a period of opportunity, a period of sowing,

[06:32] as it was in 2022, so that in a few years we can reap the fruits of what we are doing now. This is what concerns public capital. And I do roughly the same thing in terms of personal capital.

[06:47] I show all my personal capital activities on the Ikai Premium channel. Here I have recorded the Ikai Premium channel. Here I have recorded the result for the period from 2022 to 2025. Let me remind you that the profit was approximately 200%. And I have built up a

[07:00] large investment reserve. Now I have created a new cycle portfolio and started gradual accumulation from scratch. Now, as you can see, cryptocurrency market, I

[07:19] The rest is an investment reserve. I also remind you that the cryptocurrency itself should not make up more than 20-30% of the capital. That is, of all the funds allocating approximately 20-30% for gradual accumulation of cryptocurrency, that’s the

[07:35] maximum. And over the course of 1-2 years, these funds will be gradually realized, that is, assets will gradually accumulate and, in the event of the achievement of any deep reduction goals, the investment reserve will be used in larger

[07:48] amounts. And, of course, we form long-term investments through the most reliable assets of the cryptocurrency market. What assets are these? For example, it is, of course, Bitcoin and Ethereum, in which we should

[08:02] invest the largest share of the portfolio. These also include assets such as BNB, Tron and Salana. I look primarily at the capitalization and popularity of a given

[08:14] capitalization and popularity of a given asset and at how the price behaved in how strong a given asset is. And these are the assets that can be allocated for gradual accumulation. If anything, I'll outline the goals in Telegram. The QR code has

[08:28] now appeared in front of you on the screen. So, I have voiced my vision and my plan of action. I hope everything was clear. If something is unclear, you can ask in the comments. You can also share your vision of the market in the comments.

[08:41] Be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. A lot of useful and interesting content comes out here. I wish everyone all the best, profit, and victory. I love you all and bye to everyone .

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