Sharp Sports Betting Strategies — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:37] What am I doing? I need to make myself smaller. There we go. [snorts] Okay. Yo, what is up, guys?

[00:51] Um, I'm hoping this stream is working. I'm I'm hoping this stream is working. I'm in an Airbnb. Happy holidays, everybody.

[01:03] Let me just make sure this stream is working properly. [snorts] [snorts] Let's get some bets locked in.

[01:17] Um, let me know in the chat what sports book you guys want to look at first. Yo, what's up prize picks addict then? Ramujaku

[01:30] thought you died. Where you been at? Goofy better. What's up guys? What's up Trent Salad? What's up guys? How's everyone doing? What's up guys? How's everyone doing? Happy holidays. Anyways, um let's get

[01:43] some bets locked in. How does that sound? Sound like a good plan. Maybe we start out on better Jake Paul's app. Let's get a better play locked in as quickly as possible. So, the first play I'm going to go with is um Jabari

[01:57] Smith Jr. under 14 and a half points. This play I kind of like. Again, better picks. It's Jake Paul's app. It's it's it's just like prize picks, a fixed payout DFS app. So, if you take Jabari over or under, you get the same payout

[02:13] regardless. So, like all the sports books, you know, Novig, which is a exchange, they're offering Jabari Smith over at plus money, so we know his under favored. The markets crossed, a bunch of good things, [snorts]

[02:27] but let's uh let's just try to roll through some bets, and I'll try to shut the [ __ ] up and not talk. Second play we have is um Josh Hart. Where is it? Under have is um Josh Hart. Where is it? Under one and a half, made threes.

[02:41] Plus 120 underdog on Novig. a really smart book. Damn. Let's just uh keep this rolling as quickly as possible. [snorts] We got Zion Williamson under 20 and a half points. Yo, what do you guys think about this so far? Better recently

[02:55] think about this so far? Better recently improved their payouts. Um, Holy moly. So, there's some good NHL value right now, too. Check this out.

[03:10] Joel Ericson E. over two and a half shots on goal. How's he been doing? He's gone over the previous two games. And again, like you peer-to-peer betting exchanges. They're offering as under as like a plus 127

[03:26] plus 125 underdog on Profitex and Novig. These two really sharp exchanges. So, we know if his under is offered at plus money, we know his over is the favored more likely outcome. But you can also look at these sports books, FanDuel,

[03:39] Pinnacle, like you know, you got hundreds of data points as a sports better. All of these books are telling you through their market, through their odds that, hey, his over is the more likely outcome. But anyway, shut up,

[03:51] Alex. Finish the slip. Somebody put the link in the chat, please. the chat? Here we go. We got a flex play, which again is the optimal slip type on better. Let me make sure people can see this. Yo, five pick entry.

[04:07] Somebody please put the link in the chat. Let's go. We have a taco for prize chat. Let's go. We have a taco for prize picks. Hey, Alex, where you been? Yo, please? Please, please,

[04:25] I love Cozy Trashfire. I [ __ ] love you, Cozy Trash Fire. I've said it you, Cozy Trash Fire. I've said it before, I'll say it again. If I die, any money, this is my will. Any money in my sports betting accounts goes to Cozy

[04:37] Trashfire. [snorts] going to get this locked in as quickly as I can.

[04:50] Thank you, Cozy. What's up, Auto Flipper? again. They just give me a they give me a max daily limit. Yo, they give me a max daily limit. Yo, Alex, where are the [ __ ] at?

[05:05] Um, your last better slip from the Discord cashed. Cozy trash fire is completely correct. My last play from the Discord correct. My last play from the Discord uh did cash. Five for five, [ __ ]

[05:22] DraftKings pick six. So, now I'm done for the day on better. So, let me just kind of filter it out of my settings. I'm banned on Dabble. Although Dabble I'm banned on Dabble. Although Dabble does have a lot of good value.

[05:38] we do the prize picks taco? What is the prize pick taco? [snorts] prize pick taco? [snorts] Does anyone know the prize picks taco?

[05:57] think? He's gone over four out of the past five games. Where have you been, man? Where have you been, bro? Yo, so we have Swayman over 17 and a half saves. Let's go with it. The question is, what do we want to

[06:12] pair? What do you guys like for tonight, dude? What do you guys like for tonight, dude? It's actually a pretty big sports day. Um, but maybe the first play we'll go with is Javvante Williams. Sorry guys,

[06:25] I'm gonna make you wait till Thursday Night Football. By the way, Thursday is Christmas. Um, but you can no longer say Merry Christmas. If you say Merry Christmas in my chat, um, it's not really respectful of all

[06:40] So, I'm going to be [ __ ] pissed and your ass is going to get banned. Oh, man. We also have this play on Zion as well. How much do we like this Zion under? I think we really like it. So, we're going to go with it twice. Zion

[06:55] Williamson under 20 and a half points. Yo, what do we think about this for the prize picks taco? Did I miss the first taco or is this the first taco? I'm not sure. Oh, shoot. You guys can't see my screen.

[07:09] Here's my first play on prize picks. Three pick entry. Again, like on prize picks, five flex plays are mathematically optimal, but sometimes I'll run a threeman. There's five tacos.

[07:25] Merry Christmas. Merry Christmas. Are you Jewish? Uh, no. I'm not Jewish. I'm actually Christian. I was raised Christian. Um, but anyways, I'm going to get this

[07:41] locked in. I told you. I told you.

[07:53] Christian, I thought you were named Alex. Well, I am named Alex. That's not a fake name, bro. What type of Christian? Lutheran. That's how I was raised. However,

[08:07] there's two active tacos right now. What's the second taco? Yo, guys, what's What's the second taco? Yo, guys, what's the second taco?

[08:21] Um, what's the second taco? How are you going to go about the new 90% writeoff law in 2026? Honestly, I'm

[08:36] completely don't understand the gambling tax thing. have any accountants in the chat, that would be great. Although probably not on

[08:49] Twitch. Most of you guys are high school students. Most of you guys in my Twitch chat are high school students. But maybe there's how the new gambling tax is going to affect me? Am I [ __ ] bro?

[09:07] but anyways, we got the taco locked in. Bro, you look like a Jedi a Jedi at Swaggy. Thank you, Ron. Thank you, Ron.

[09:23] What's the second taco? What's the second taco, boys? What is the second taco? Sorry, guys. I'm trying to read the chat. It's It's Baborski. Everyone, don't pay betting taxes in 2026. Okay, let's [snorts] see

[09:38] the second prize picks taco. Oh [ __ ] there is a second prize picks taco. Um, there is a second prize picks taco. Um, Sergey Baborski. So, they have no NBA tacos. Today, they're just doing NHL tacos. That's the dumbest thing in the

[09:51] world. Literally, nobody likes hockey except for Tate McCrae. Yeah. Oh [ __ ] Oh [ __ ] See though, really quickly, if

[10:03] you're able to get Lakers locked in on Rebet, again, Rebet is it's it's a sweep stakes book. It's legal in like every state. Lakers plus 169. [snorts] Let's get it locked in. Um, Lakers plus 169 against the Suns.

[10:20] Uh, this play looks really good. I hope it doesn't get bumped.

[10:34] So, this book is called Rebet. Again, it's a pretty cool book and they just bumped it to plus 144. I literally hate my life. Okay, they ended up bumping it say that play looked really solid cross market, but whatever. I [snorts] missed

[10:50] it. Um, but what I didn't miss is the prize picks, Taco. So, what do you guys want to do? Should we do a fiveman, a six-man, a threeman? What are we thinking?

[11:02] thinking? What are we thinking? Um, what do you guys want to do? Six-man, fiveman?

[11:15] Alex, you look cute in that hoodie. Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Gigatrash. Sixman, please. Some people want a six-man. We can try to rip and run six-man. We can try to rip and run a six pick entry.

[11:32] Um, what do we think about this first pick? Donovan Cllingan

[11:44] like clinging blocks? Pick number one. It checks out from a value perspective. I mean, you can see his unders offered at plus 120. When you go through the math behind prize picks, which I've done in a ton of videos, so you guys should

[11:58] have you should have watched them. Um, you'll see that five or six pick entries are mathematically optimal. and you're basically just getting charged on, you know, prize picks. They're just charging you minus 119 juice. They just they do a

[12:13] good job of disguising it, but like the payout for a for for a threeman is minus 122. When you kind of like reverse engineer if prize picks was giving you odds and was giving you actual odds like what would the price be? And if you

[12:28] reverse engineer prize picks for a five or six man, it's minus19. But what I want to do is pick the six BEST PICKS IN THE WORLD. SO WE GOT JAVVANTE Williams under. We got clinging blocks. I like that. Zion,

[12:44] stuff like that. So maybe let's skip that over that play. I'm going to skip over. I do kind of like this play on Bridges. Let's run it. Bridges under 29

[12:56] PSAs. Okay. So, like Bridges, he's he's he's he's an underdog on Novig. An extremely sharp peer-to-peer betting site. He's an underdog to even go over 28 and a half Pas. So, I would bet him under 28 and a half

[13:10] Pas, but on prize picks, I'm getting an even better line at 29. That's just the odd jam sharp money tool. Um, but what else do we like? I'm just Um, but what else do we like? I'm just trying to think deeply about this.

[13:28] in, we got Kaishan George, not to be confused with Kee George. And there is a difference because Kaishan George is on the Wizards and he's ass. He's not Kee George. Um, what the [ __ ]

[13:45] Yo, what do we think about this? Let me take a look real quickly. This would be a six pick entry on prize picks for the taco. I apologize if you couldn't see it. Here's the first three. And here's the next three.

[14:04] Link. Link. Link. Link. Link. Link. Link. Link. Link. Link. Link. Man, Link. Link. Link. Link. Link. Man, where's my Starbucks?

[14:19] Shout out Noah Weiss. Who the [ __ ] is Who the [ __ ] is Noah Weiss? Thank you Liam Mcconkey for putting the link in the chat. I appreciate you Liam. link in the chat. I appreciate you Liam. You the man. Liam

[14:35] got to stop gambling next week with that law. Alex, are you in that powder? Shut up. Blaze 83. I ain't in no powder. I missed you, Alex. What's up? Thank you, Kyle Hamilton. Sorry, guys.

[14:52] I've been um re-watching Breaking Bad and it's very stressful. It's [snorts] show. Um what do you guys want to do? Underdog pick six. Some people got to provide

[15:07] suggestions, I'll just ENTERTAIN YOU BY TAKING [screaming] OFF MY SHIRT. I'm just kidding. I'm not going to take off my shirt. Damn. So, Dabble has a ton of value right now. Unfortunately, I got

[15:21] banned on Dabble. So, like Bridges, for example, because So, like Bridges, for example, because they do have stat slices right now. So, they have some stat slices,

[15:34] right? How many stat slices do we have on pick six? It looks like we just have on pick six? It looks like we just have a few. We have Sheay, Ant, Jokic. So, what I'm going to do is I'm gonna run bridges under. So,

[15:46] check this out, right? Again, Bridges, you know, DraftKings pick six. It's another fixed payout DFS. Like Bridges, he's an underdog to go over 28 and a he's an underdog to go over 28 and a half. So, he's favored to go under 28

[15:59] and a half. And DraftKings pick six, just like prize picks. You know, it's another fixed payout sports book. Take his over, take his under, same payout. So, we want to be on his under if his over is being offered at plus 125. Um,

[16:15] but what I want to do is figure out how to finish this slip in is figure out how to finish this slip in the best possible way. Claxton under 26

[16:27] and a half pas. [ __ ] I kind of [ __ ] with this again. First step to beating the sports books, you got to find value. That's just the odds jam. So, you can see Claxton's line on like, you know, prize picks is 25 half. So, it

[16:40] Whatever. all these other books have his line, you know, lower. Got to be finding value. So, this is DraftKings pick six discount. Let me make sure people can see it. You can.

[16:54] Damn, they only give you 10 bucks. Cheap [ __ ] So, let me put this link in the chat real quick. Links in the chat. I'm trying to do a better job about, you know, are you kidding me,

[17:14] They only let me play one three pick entry. And that's annoying because three pick entries, that's like the best type of slip. So, I want to run three pick entries, but they're like, "No, we're not going to let you run another

[17:28] three pick entry." Why the [ __ ] do they do this, bro? discounts. I'm not sure if they do they do this to you guys as well.

[17:51] eight pick. We could try to do an eight pick entry. We could try to do an eight pick entry. That's just going to take a second.

[18:09] Give me a sec. Um, chill the [ __ ] out. Um, why don't we give it a try? I mean, what's wrong? And they just bumped Claxton.

[18:21] Okay, so again, one of the only Yeah, one of the main problems with this book one of the main problems with this book is just these bumps, bro. But, um, we could do underdog. I mean, there's some really good value on Dabble. I mean

[18:34] Josh Hart keeps becoming a bigger and bigger favorite to go under one and a half made threes like you can see Pinnacle right here really smart or sharp book they have [snorts] as under as a minus 146 favorite if you've

[18:47] learned nothing from me sports book odds are a source of sports book odds are a source of information

[19:00] plays ridiculously good Denny Avaja under seven and a half assists. I mean, he's literally offered with decent liquidity, 475 bucks still early in the day for a player prop. His over

[19:14] is being offered by these market makers at plus 138, which means they think his under is a good bet at minus 138. And we're able to get it on dabble in a we're able to get it on dabble in a three pick entry at minus 122. [snorts]

[19:28] three pick entry at minus 122. [snorts] So, let's go. Here we got Josh Hart. keeps getting better, but maybe you don't want to run it again. There's a lot of value. I don't want to like stay

[19:40] stuck on dabble, but whoa, we might as well do a slip, right? So, Jonathan Taylor here, we actually have Jonathan Taylor to score a touchdown. So, you could just run this play above

[19:54] as a three pick entry. I mean, Jonathan Taylor, like he's a massive favorite to it's only a one-way market, but they have his over as a minus 180 favorite.

[20:06] And again, on Dabble, any three pick parlay, you're [snorts] getting a 6x payout. So, if you just use a calculator, again, you guys should all love calculators. I [ __ ] love calculators. Any three pick parlay being

[20:20] a 6x payout means if you like work out the math, 100 to 600. Dabble is basically just charging minus 122 minus 122 juice for any overunder [snorts] which is fascinating fascinating

[20:36] but let's see if we can finish this anything else that's beautiful go bear to not have a double double eh I would probably

[20:49] entries on dabble so we could run goar no double double double and then you could throw in the Zion Williamson under again if you wanted to or you could take Kaishan George.

[21:05] Sometimes prize picks, you know, these platforms kind of have similar lines way. They're all just fixed payout sports books, which seem to be the rage So, you could run this as a five pick entry, 20x payout. It's kind of up to

[21:20] banned on this book, but again, it's like similar strategy to prize picks cuz like similar strategy to prize picks cuz these [ __ ] bucks work the same way.

[21:35] somebody put the link to the second taco in the chat if you tailed it?

[21:48] Pick them is not available in your location. Yes, it is. Let's go. I'm [snorts] not picking my nose. I'm scratching my nose. Let's get a slip locked in on underdog. Do you guys still use underdog fantasy or no?

[22:10] try to move as fast as possible as I rip these lines with you guys. Oh my gosh. So, these plays actually pair kind of well these plays actually pair kind of well together, too, right? Like,

[22:39] I'm thinking um anyways, it's okay. I'll I'll I'll this slip locked in. So, I'm going to do a six-pack entry. All these platforms, underdog, you know, whatever. They have somewhat similar payouts initially and

[22:54] somewhat similar payouts initially and then things start to diverge, but like You [ __ ] bro. They already bumped Russell Westbrook. Sometimes I just want to [ __ ]

[23:14] possible a six pick flex play. Okay, six pick flex play pick flex play um on underdog. So, let's go here

[23:30] pick. So, like this play Derek Queen under Give me a sec. Brock Fra over in shots on goal. I'm trying to look for other cross markets. Josh Giddy

[23:43] Aongw just not a ton of liquidity there. This play looks solid. We are going to take Westbrook under in Pas. Did take Westbrook under in Pas. Did anything get bumped or are we good?

[23:57] going to take Westbrook under in points. I mean, you can see you can get this on better as well. Um Circa really smart Sharp book. You know, they have Westbrook's under minus 150 favorite, 60% implied win probability. Did they

[24:12] 60% implied win probability. Did they bump anything yet? yet? Yo, we're not done. Why are you posting a link in the chat?

[24:29] slip, man. PJ Washington over one and a half assists. Sure, whatever. So, I mean, kind of random market, but again, like underdog, prize picks, all these platforms have thousands of lines listed

[24:43] at any given moment. We're just trying to zone in on, you know, the six picks on underdog that have the best possible value. And if you go through the math, you'll see they're basically just charging you minus 116 juice.

[24:58] So, here's the slip. Are you [ __ ] kidding me, dude? They bumped Russ kidding me, dude? They bumped Russ again. Here's

[25:17] this took so long. Dude, Kyle Kosma, that is a crazy tattoo, that is a crazy tattoo, bro. What?

[25:30] in, please. Just get this locked in, please. Six pick flex play,

[25:43] bro. Okay. One, two, three, four, five, six. Okay, got it locked in, What is this? That is crazy. That is a crazy look.

[26:00] Anyways, what were we talking about? What do you guys want to look at, man? Alex, there's an 80% NHL boost on Sleeper. Let's take a look at Sleeper.

[26:23] boost. What the [ __ ] You guys want to do this sleeper thing or should I look at something else? I'm reading the chat, trying to pay attention to people.

[26:51] decimal format. I've said that in other, you know, videos, but they have like Naji Marshall's under as a you can see a 1.75x payout. That just means minus 133

[27:04] 1.75x payout. That just means minus 133 odds. You're betting 100 to win 17575 in profit, which is the same as, you know, minus 133. Devin Booker, best looking NBA player in the league. He's so handsome. If I were

[27:24] the league. He's so handsome. If I were Don't say anything [ __ ] up. Okay. which I kind of like. You guys like bridges, bridges under and pas, you

[27:37] better like it because we're running it or I'm running it and if you want a or I'm running it and if you want a tail, you're running it. 100% profit boost is crazy. We have done very well on Sleeper

[27:50] recently, too. So, here's a play. Do you guys need a link or It sounds like everyone's saying no, we got the link. Okay, people don't need a link. You Okay, people don't need a link. You don't need a link.

[28:10] Thank you for God 7 for putting the link in the chat. Damn, dude. Sleeper actually has some pretty good discounts as well. So, like they have this discount. Thank you for god for putting the link in the chat.

[28:33] Denny discount. I'm going to run in with Duran under and PRs. Just trying to find a little bit of value. It's not always easy, but

[28:47] damn, dude. They have a 20 yard discount on St. Brown.

[29:07] And I'm going to run that with Zion under five and a half rebounds off of sleeper. I'm just going to run this with both of them. But the sleeper

[29:19] this with both of them. But the sleeper discounts, why not, right? half points on prize picks. Um, do you guys want to do more prize

[29:34] Um, do you guys want to do more prize picks?

[29:54] picks? Here's what I'm going to run for the NHL boost. Prize picks. Can you show the sleeper play again? Here's a sleeper play. Hockey. I assume that's what you want. I don't really know what you're talking

[30:07] >> [snorts] >> Um, people are saying do not do underdog. Okay, we don't have to. Again, Bridges under 28 and a half Pas. Um, that play looks really good on DraftKings pick six

[30:22] if you're if you're still looking for something on that.

[30:46] People were asking for rebet. So let's see here. This just odds jam positive EV tool. Doesn't do anything complicated, you know, just kind of points out value in the market. I mean there's some decent stuff like

[31:01] this looks really good to Pinnacle, right? Pinnacle has the under at minus 161. They have 25 cents of juice. So if you devague the market, if you find the you devague the market, if you find the midpoint of 136 and 161,

[31:14] you know, it would be whatever close to like minus 148. That's the fair price for the under plus 148 for the over with the vague removed. So we could already get some NFL bets locked in if we wanted to. Or we could

[31:31] to. Or we could um jack off on Santa slay. Bro, Where is this game? Are the Patriots legitimate contenders?

[31:54] That is a low total for this game. under 45 half. But I guess the Jets are literally complete ass. So we'll dump some balance on it. And they're only going to 616. So they're only going to give me 616, but whatever. For people

[32:07] asking for a rebet play, why why are we getting this locked in so early? Well, man, listen. Sometimes the best value goes away. You want to get it locked in goes away. You want to get it locked in now.

[32:23] Now. Um, Some like random college [ __ ] on Fliff, but nothing really crazy.

[32:40] not in a state with FanDuel right now. Sorry, bro. Um,

[33:03] girl at the bar. I mean, I say this all the time as a sports better. You know, you want to want to follow the hot girl at the bar, which right now appears to be prize picks.

[33:16] Um, so we could do another prize picks play. I mean, this play on Garland looked really good, really good, right? Prize picks. Garland under 28 and

[33:28] a half pas points plus assists. You can see Novig really smart peer-to-peer betting exchange. They're offering his over at plus 126. So, we know his under,

[33:40] you know, that's the it's the favorite outcome. We got Claxton assists, which I outcome. We got Claxton assists, which I kind of like. Nick Claxton over three and a half assists. Do we like it? We're running it.

[33:52] So, you could also like run this as a three pick entry, which actually looks incredible. Um, this would be a solid three pick Um, this would be a solid three pick entry that you could run on prize picks.

[34:11] Somebody put the link in the chat. Please done more pick six, but they're not really letting you bet that much.

[34:25] really letting you bet that much. 30% oh 30% NHL boost but that's only for four pick entries which is a little bit annoying. annoying. They do have a free square on CD Lamb.

[34:37] They do have a free square on CD Lamb. So we could see like is there any NFL So we could see like is there any NFL is there any NFL value already?

[34:51] I mean, kind of like we could run this play. Chris like we could run this play. Chris under 14 and a half rushing yards,

[35:06] over under, same payout. I mean, FanDuel has his overpriced at plus 114. So, underdog odds. So, we know, you know, his under is the favored, more likely outcome. Um,

[35:22] Um, but let's see if there's anything else. That looks good to pair. Let's see here.

[35:44] uh Thursday Thursday football three pick entry. I'm not sure what the max betting limit is, but I'm just going to I'm going to run it already because why not? going to run it already because why not? Let's get it locked in.

[36:06] Haime Hawez points a bit high today. Good value. Where is Hawz, man? What is Good value. Where is Hawz, man? What is Haime's line? Is Bam playing 14 and a Haime's line? Is Bam playing 14 and a half points? I mean, I don't know.

[36:19] half points? I mean, I don't know. Um, is that crazy? Hawz with a 14 and a half points line.

[36:34] last game, but again, every game obviously different. Let's see here. Is obviously different. Let's see here. Is there anything else we're in love with?

[36:47] Not really. I'll call the stream a day for now. Um, but maybe I'll stream again for now. Um, but maybe I'll stream again later if there's some