Stocks, Fed, Trump: Market Commentary and Analysis

[00:02] another day. Another day. Another dollar in the ston market. Oh man. It had a little bit of a full circle so far this morning. Little bit of a full circle. A

[00:15] little strange. I'm a little surprised because we got no catalyst. Did you know that today we were supposed to get weekly jobs data but from ADP, but they're like, "Yeah, just kidding. We are not going to

[00:29] release any data. We're gonna hold it for the monthly data next week. We're We don't need the data. Nobody wants the data. Okay? Nobody wants to hear it. It's all fake news anyway. So anyway, we didn't get any data. So, uh it's kind of

[00:45] boring. We're sort of sailing bored until we frankly get over to the 9th uh until we frankly get over to the 9th uh of January and the 13th of January. of January and the 13th of January. Uh, as far as news, little on the quiet

[00:59] Uh, as far as news, little on the quiet side cuz well, there's like no data. Uh, but that's all right. So, we're going to go find what we can. Let's go take a lot of people still on vacation. Yeah, you're probably right. Uh, let's go take

[01:11] a look at this. We've got uh the 10ear at 4.13. We really haven't gone at 4.13. We really haven't gone anywhere. I've got 10 twos at 67. anywhere. I've got 10 twos at 67. Uh, I've got oil stable. No real change

[01:24] Uh, I've got oil stable. No real change from yesterday. Gold's at 44. Silver, silver now up 7% on the day after being down like 8% yesterday. So, a little bit down like 8% yesterday. So, a little bit of a you know momentum return or at

[01:37] least that's what some people are going to hold uh hope for. Could also be a knows? Is the momentum over? I guess we'll find out. But uh let's go take a peek at this. So, emboldened activist investors are circling US banks. Cool.

[01:53] China's push to Arctic to master the Arctic opens an alarming shortcut uh to the US. Yeah, this you know fighting up here uh or or trying trying to take

[02:06] control of this is exactly why Trump has wanted Greenland, right, which is right here. So uh but that's exactly why Russia kind of takes this path along or China takes this path along the Russian edge. Uh

[02:19] because even if you did have Greenland. Yeah. So kind of kind of interesting. So then I've got uh let's see here. Meta buys manas for two billies. Two billies.

[02:34] buys manas for two billies. Two billies. Chinese roots. Oh man. Uh oh. Let's go. Let's go log in to the correct account so we can actually go see the story. Uh yeah. That's the problem when you have like multiple accounts for the Wall

[02:50] Street Journal and you just happen to sign into the wrong one. No problem. No problem. We'll get on in. So, my subscription is under that email subscription is under that email address. Fine, Dan. And beam it up. All

[03:06] right. There we There we go. Now we're in. I saw somebody complaining yesterday about the Chase Sapphire on X. I was on there briefly and one of the few things I saw was somebody's like, "Oh, they I had a 6-hour layover and they wouldn't

[03:20] let me into the Chase Sapphire lounge, you know, whatever 3 hour until 3 hours before my flight." I was thinking to myself, these lounges honestly have myself, these lounges honestly have gotten so overrated. The rest like the

[03:34] general like restaurants are often almost better. you know, you get you get served. You could sit there for as long as you want. Uh like sure, you're gonna

[03:46] as you want. Uh like sure, you're gonna tip the person and maybe it's not free. Uh but you know, it free is an asterisk anyway because on these lounges, you know, what you're getting for is is really just a return in part of what

[04:00] you're paying for the card. So, there's an asterisk there. But uh it like the whole lounge game has gotten so ridiculous sometimes. I I like man these ridiculous sometimes. I I like man these restaurants are fine. Uh but anyway,

[04:13] so uh Meta has agreed to acquire AI startup Manis Singapore-based company with Chinese founders that conducts deep research uh and performs other tasks for paying users. Meta is closing the deal at more than $2 billion according to

[04:27] people familiar with the acquisition. Uh let's see here. seeking a fresh round of fundraising. Oh, they were seeking a fresh round when Oh, they were seeking a fresh round when Meta approached them.

[04:41] Uh, acquisition is among the highest profile examples of a major tech company profile examples of a major tech company buying an AI product developed in Asia. Detailed research reports and building custom websites using AI models by

[04:57] custom websites using AI models by companies such as Anthropic and Alibaba. The demo followed the release of Deepseek. Deepseek. Yeah.

[05:12] They raised 75 million in fundraising round in a in a fundraising round in April. What that valuation was about 500 mil. Wow. They've done well. Nice little run there on on the value. Good for them.

[05:26] them. All right. So, Uh, okay. Airship makers, get ready for bigger

[05:40] 2026. Fine. Los Angeles. Titans rents control. Oh, this is so dumb. This is why I avoid LA. I absolutely hate LA, by the way. I despise LA. They're so dumb.

[05:52] Starting February, landlords on most multifamily apartments can only raise their rent 1 to 4% a year, depending on the local inflation rate. That's down the local inflation rate. That's down from 3 to 8% last 4 days. I mean,

[06:04] I don't think you're going to need to raise rent more than 4% a year, but usually what happens when when they do this is they make it impossible for people not to skip a rent increase. like the landlord basically has to give you

[06:18] the full rent increase because of rent control because they don't want to get left behind. So, you know, it you and and you usually just build less housing. So, it's it's really shocking. So, San

[06:30] Diego over LA. Oh, 100%. Man, yeah, we've got uh like I I personally have this mindset of like I would rather fly over LA and get to San Diego than invest

[06:42] in LA. I I just despise LA. Everything that I hate about California is like LA. Like I'd rather go buy in San Francisco than Los Angeles. Um actually by a lot. I San Francisco will turn around. LA I

[06:59] don't know. Uh but speaking of of real estate and housing, uh take a look at this. This is an updated screenshot. Yesterday we were at money in for December of 3.8 and we are now at 4.5.

[07:14] 4.5. So yesterday, I mean, just into this was about what is that $700ish $1,000 just yesterday. Fundra obviously is closing tomorrow. This video is not a solicitation, but uh it's also kind of cool because we're releasing the app uh

[07:30] have a big price increase. So you could still use the code uh um release the app is the coupon code and uh and get that reinvest AI before we do. But anyway,

[07:42] with this new policy, Los Angeles is waiting deeper into national debate over whether price controls can help tenants. They can't. There's no debate. There's literally no debate. Uh like rent control, every time. Anytime there's

[07:57] rent control, you shorten supply, you shorten supply, you constrain supply, and you increase you constrain supply, and you increase prices on net every single time. It's

[08:09] like old news. Nobody knows rent control better than Nobody knows rent control better than me.

[08:22] yes, Scott, it's it's fixed. I posted it fixed. Uh, let's see. Glad somebody says, "Bought you bought the silver dip yesterday with 20K." Wow, you are a brave soul. Uh, let's see here.

[08:38] San Diego much better than LA. Agree. Uh, somebody says Bitcoin to 90K. We do need more houses. Need people to build. Uh, yeah, if you go look at where

[08:51] do we have I was just going to look at Bitcoin BTS. I mean, you've been in this little consolidation over here. Uh, I'd love to see a breakout on this day chart. Let's

[09:06] see a breakout on this day chart. Let's draw on this. So, if we drop into here, uh, that's not highly useful. So, I'm just going to make that gray.

[09:21] Yeah, maybe kind of like right there. Pick it up a little bit more. No, it's not it's not a great line. So, we'll leave it gray cuz it's not great. It's gray. Yeah, but what I'm trying to

[09:37] do is indicate this convergence that's happening here, right? Look at this. I mean, to me, this is a pretty equivalent convergence. So, you're setting up for either a break up or a breakdown, but something something's going to break

[09:52] something something's going to break here. You know, this has like to me uh between like there there are no catalysts between now and Jan 9th. I actually think you could have a nice break up here. maybe reject off 102, but

[10:06] uh you know, if you have a bad catalyst, you'll be right back down to 80K. So, it's it's it's hard because it's such an equivalent convergence that you could really break in either direction here,

[10:19] but I I would not be surprised to see a $15,000 movement in Bitcoin within the $15,000 movement in Bitcoin within the next two weeks. So, that'll be interesting. Uh, so let's see here.

[10:49] and they are both a billion dollars." Oh, I thought you said, "I only need two things." A billion dollars. Is this like two words? Billion dollars. two words? Billion dollars. That's funny. Uh, so

[11:03] I'll tell you later. Yeah, Scott, there was some kind of bug this morning. We We're going to get that fixed. That was uh uh just in the uh in fixed. That was uh uh just in the uh in the link for some folks. Uh couldn't get

[11:16] in. So, we we'll get that fixed. No worries. Uh but anyway, let's uh let's go take a look at some other news here. But I just want you to have faith that we're aware of it and it's going to get fixed. Okay. So Matt Alice man, okay,

[11:31] that's old. We know that. Stock market rally pauses. Yeah, pauses is no fall. So that's okay. Trump's Ukraine plan faces obstacles. We know that cuz Putin

[11:44] Putin knows how to play Trump. I say it every day. Uh, okay. Had to be brave. Wall Street remembers a wild 2025. Yeah, that's true.

[11:56] wild 2025. Yeah, that's true. Uh, okay. Tesla broadcasts downbeat Uh, okay. Tesla broadcasts downbeat sales estimate in unusual move.

[12:09] step of publishing a series of sales estimate estimates to indicate. Yeah. So, I tweeted about this yesterday and I thought it was really interesting because I got the uh Tesla email, but you could go to Tesla investor relations

[12:21] and see it too. and they uh they put out sort of a pressure of the analyst consensus and they usually don't do that. Uh they usually only uh send that argue, oh we're doing it for

[12:34] company in the world. But really what they're doing is they're they're doing it because they're trying to get ahead of these bad numbers. So, this is the consensus is that they're only going to deliver 422

[12:54] this. And, uh, the Wall Street consensus before this release was like 450. So, they're really trying to get this to come in low. Uh, and then

[13:06] they're obviously going to focus on propping up energy storage development, which makes sense. Q1's going to suck for energy and cars, though. It always does. But I thought it was interesting that they forecast getting to 3 point uh

[13:21] that they forecast getting to 3 point uh 3 million vehicles in 2029. Uh of those 691,000 would be other, which is kind of neat to see what that other would be given that right now we're at like 131,000 of others, which

[13:36] would be S, X, Cybertruck, maybe Cyber would be S, X, Cybertruck, maybe Cyber Cab or whatever. But 3 million in 2029, it's just low. I mean, if I go to a Tesla spreadsheet here,

[13:52] oh, where's the good old Tesla Tesla spreadsheet? And I put in 3 mil. I'm pretty sure I had like 4 mil for 2030. Yeah, dude. See, I have

[14:05] 4 mil for 2030 and I still have trouble with 4 mil here. And then energy, I have it at 20 billion by 2030. Now, they have gigawatt

[14:20] uh they show it as 141, which would be roughly a 2 and 1/2x from now.

[14:33] 20. Yeah, that's probably closer to the Yeah, that's probably closer to the Bloomberg 26 bill. I'll I'll I'm going to leave my note here. So, I'll go pump this up to like I'll put it at 24 bill

[14:47] just for giggles. And I'll still leave it at four uh 4 million vehicles. And it at four uh 4 million vehicles. And I'll go with the expenses on the car of sale. That's We've got some Optimus

[15:02] optimistic. I mean, how many Optimus did I put in here? I put 2 million in here. I mean, that might be really generous. Let me just kill Optimus for a moment and I can throw it back in in just a moment.

[15:16] So, if I kill Optimus and I have the energy in here, I'm still at a for a energy in here, I'm still at a for a manufacturer $219 price target. Uh, so we're still looking at negative returns on this puppy. Now, at these

[15:31] returns on this puppy. Now, at these prices, now if I throw in 2 million prices, now if I throw in 2 million Optimus at a 25% margin, that's going to help. That still only gets me to $326.

[15:45] So, and that's that's assuming you can sell 2 million Optimus. I don't know that you're going to be able to, you know, so that's pretty unconservative. But either way, either way I slice it, I I can't get I can't wrap my head around

[15:59] the the price for Tesla right now. Where is this puppy? Here it is. Uh so, this uh sort of triple top on the uptrend over here. Interesting. heading

[16:14] back down to 433. We'll see where it goes. Anyway, let's go see what else is news today. Uh, okay. So,

[16:27] anything related to housing reforms? No. Everybody always talks about housing reforms, and the only places that actually reform housing are the ones that build more. Like in Texas and Florida, they actually get it that if

[16:40] more. But whatever. So, okay, what else do we have here? Uh, Homeland Security, emergency demolition of historic

[16:55] buildings. Oh, looks like crap is what that looks like. Uh, is Ryan red wine better for you than white? I tell you, it's slow news days when they're talking about the color of wine you should be drinking. Top aids asked Nathan Yahoo to

[17:10] change policy in occupied West Bank. He's still dealing with this. The West He's still dealing with this. The West Bank now from the Gaza Strip over

[17:26] military drills, right? Well, I mean, that's that's just putting the uh the strongman face on. So, good I mean, good for him. That's kind of what you you have to do. Uh, UAE says it's withdrawing remaining

[17:40] Uh, UAE says it's withdrawing remaining forces from Yemen. massive rally. Yeah, they did. And they showcased that on their uh their that yesterday. Russia says its negotiating stance on Ukraine will

[17:56] negotiating stance on Ukraine will toughen after accusing Kiev of attack, right? Because of the presidential palace attack argument that, you know, a lot of people are disputing. Iran warns of severe response. Right.

[18:13] Iran has promised to respond harshly to any aggression after President Trump should Tyran attempt to rebuild its nuclear program. Right. Got to get that Pickaxe Mountain, man.

[18:27] Got to get Pickaxe Mountain. That's where they moved it all to. We got We got to bunker bust the bunker. The remaining bunker. You gotta bust it.

[18:43] All right. Politico turbulent trajectory. What is this, man? Boring day. Okay, fine. That's holiday time, you know. I get it. State step into breaches Obamacare. Subsidies lapse. Yeah, the

[18:59] healthc care situation is just a disaster, too. 67 over here. Let's go. Let's go see the information. Let's go see if they've got any juice for us. Somebody in the chat says, "I'm going to sell all on Jan 5." You know, Jan 9 is

[19:15] sell all on Jan 5." You know, Jan 9 is kind of my my belief is that you can kind of my my belief is that you can slow up between now and Jan 9, but then you get job set and uh who knows, maybe it'll be rigged again. But

[19:29] really, what you want to get is is a like a resumption of growth. If we can resume growth, it'd be very bullish. If we can actually get back to labor growth, uh that would be fantastic because that would just put a nail in

[19:43] the recession coffin. It would be very bullish. people are talking about their predictions for next year, which is all typically fugazy anyway. It's usually wrong by April.

[19:59] AI open AI faces a make or break year in 26. I agree with that. I think that's a 26. I agree with that. I think that's a good point from uh the economist. good point from uh the economist. The

[20:15] or OpenAI I should say, you know, I think if if OpenAI falters, you know, your chip sector goes gets even worse. How how are we doing today on chips? as I'm pretty bearish on the sector.

[20:31] Oracle's still stuck trying to get across 200. Cororeweave can't keep it up. Enbis can't keep it up.

[20:45] I can't keep it up. Yeah. Yeah. and and those will weigh those will keep growth in the cues slower but I still maintain uh some bullishness between now and JN 9 open eye to facemaker or break. Okay, so what do we

[21:01] have here? Sam Alman is like a juggler on a unicycle building all knowing snowball knowing chat bots

[21:14] chips of course e-commerce why not business consulting too easy consumer advice you betcha at the same time Mr. Alman must keep a free hand to hold out his cap for a show gets more expensive by the day. Yeah. Yeah. This is very

[21:31] true. And it's it's a uh it's it's a big risk. Uh it's what makes me the most nervous.

[21:51] Okay, cool. Yeah, lot of emails uh in our investor relations email. Uh banging them all out, which is great. Team's killing it. But um

[22:06] yeah, it's very interesting. Um there's there is a little bit of a rush here at the end of the year for people to diversify away from the madness. But anyway, uh, leak figures indicate OpenAI expects to burn through 17 billion of

[22:20] cash in 26. Losses will continue piling up. Okay, Losses will continue piling up. Okay, that's fine. Oh, yeah. Look at that. Deadline to invest banner. Oh, how cute is that?

[22:36] Forgot I had that. I make these banners and then I forget about them. 2026 open air will almost will certainly raise another slug of capital. It's looking Well, this hundred billion dollars has been talked about for a while. I don't

[22:50] Are they actually going to get it? That's the question. Huh. Open demand for computing power by far

[23:04] remain tightly coupled to revenue. Eventually, however, we'll have to prove that we can turn a profit. Yeah, we know that. Highwire act blah blah blah. All right. I think they're basically just saying the pressure is on. That's fine.

[23:17] Dollar on track for the steepest annual drop for almost a decade. Nice. Uh makes our exports cheaper for other countries. All makes traveling to other countries a little crappier. Although

[23:32] countries a little crappier. Although maybe not Japan. themselves at a record rate. Well, yeah, you could realize some nice Well, yeah, you could realize some nice revenue if you do that.

[23:46] revenue if you do that. Congress can only tax, not Trump. Times. Private equity firms sold companies to

[23:59] themselves at a record rate this year, making use of a controversial tactic to hold on to assets as managers struggle to find assets or buyers for their assets. Roughly a fifth of all PE sales this year involve groups raising money

[24:14] from new investors to acquire businesses from their older funds. Oh yeah, the continuation vehicles. Right. Right. Yeah. It's just basically a way to kick the can down the road on the

[24:28] private credit disaster. Uh people are still throwing money into it. I don't I still throwing money into it. I don't I don't understand how, but they are.

[24:41] So, they've been attacking the bombs. Now, they the uh drone strike the uh the port. Didn't kill anyone, which wasn't the intention. But it's very interesting because you know when we think of a drone strike in

[24:55] um you know UK rain or Russia we just think of a little drone on a fiber optic cable right uh you think of a drone strike from America it's like a hellfire missile man it's nasty local officials

[25:10] in initially said one pilot was dead and another was critical and the second pilot did die. Oh that's terrible. A midair helicopter crash in southern Jersey over the weekend left both pilots dead.

[25:23] Yikes. New or what is this? Hamilton, New Jersey. Soon after both helicopters had taken off, they collided and crashed to the ground in a field.

[25:36] and crashed to the ground in a field. Ouch. other was in critical. Yeah. Okay. A 71-year-old and a 65year-old. Man, that sucks. Oh, did somebody get it on video?

[25:52] Oh, that's terrible.

[26:08] Oh, are there? Ah. Yep. Oof. Oof. It's just sad.

[26:27] Wow. Uh, let's go. Uh, I see that. Where was Uh, let's go. Uh, I see that. Where was this? This was um

[26:44] the Philadelphia Helicopter crash.

[26:59] This one caught on fire. This one didn't. But just the impact of that plump, that sucks.

[27:14] Anyway. Oh, yeah. Yeah. All right. So, anyway, uh continuing on anyway, uh continuing on then we have let's see here. Chief solar transforming economies across Africa. Cool. Saudi le air strike

[27:30] in Yemen threatens worse rift with UAE. Hold on. Geopolitical drama. Euroar cancels trains after power fail failure in the channel tunnel. No, not the

[27:42] in the channel tunnel. No, not the tunnel. major power failure inside the tunnel, disrupting plans for

[27:56] thousands of people. Disruption caused by a fault of the overhead power supply. Subsequent breakdown of a train within the 30 within the 31 mile tunnel left the 30 within the 31 mile tunnel left customers stranded for hours. Dude, that

[28:09] sucks. You're stranded underwater in a tunnel in a train that lost power. tunnel in a train that lost power. Oh, that's like a worst nightmare. I've been on this train. Last time I was on it was in um I think

[28:26] it was like May of 2022. But anyway, that sucks. And you're not underground for all the time, you know, you're actually above ground for quite a bit as you're going through, you know, France and and uh the upper parts uh of the UK.

[28:44] and and uh the upper parts uh of the UK. But boy, that's scary.

[28:57] why we stay home and don't travel during the holiday season. Paris will still be there in the spring. Okay. Okay. Anyway. All right. Cool.

[29:10] Anyway. All right. Cool. So, what does Bloomberg say about Tesla? Tesla consensus. Oh, these are the forecast. So Bloomberg

[29:23] is forecasting this this increase in Tesla sales as well for vehicles and and I guess they sort of see this as like a bottoming year. Uh where Troy

[29:36] like a bottoming year. Uh where Troy actually thinks it's going to continue.

[29:56] All right, back to the doomers.

[30:14] Tesla Subway had to be brand. Yeah, we saw that.

[30:26] institutions I I honestly I think most people are on vacation. That's crazy. There's so little going on, but it's it's fine. it's fine. We still get to hang out. Uh my mindset

[30:39] continues. Mark your calendar. Jan 9th. Just slow schlo up until Jan 9. the uh the big catalyst there is the labor report and if we stick a soft landing there that'd be really good especially in a December month

[30:55] was really looking forward to the uh ADP weekly numbers this morning but no they got rugged you know Trump made a phone call huh uh no I don't I don't actually think he

[31:12] uh no I don't I don't actually think he did for this but anyway Uh, okay. Good. did for this but anyway Uh, okay. Good. So, what else? Uh, then we've got

[31:36] what uh if they've got anything over here. Let's see here. See if Taylor Rigs or Sarah Eisen have See if Taylor Rigs or Sarah Eisen have anything for us today

[31:54] Exchange. Today on the show, General Motors on track to be the top performing US auto stock of the year, but it's the Chinese automakers making waves in the space set to overtake Japanese brands as the top selling new cars globally for

[32:07] the first time ever. We'll break down the outlook for the sector with former >> Plus, in a rare example of the US tech giant buying a platform founded in China, what Meta's deal for the AI start >> about that boring. It's over here.

[32:22] >> You often will lose. 2024 should have taught them that they have to offer taught them that they have to offer something else.

[32:39] >> TV and Bloomberg radio. We are simal cast and you can watch us as well on >> YouTube. By the way, I saw I was looking at the YouTube live chat here. >> Be careful there. And I saw I'm careful, but I saw a great quote about, you know,

[32:53] but I saw a great quote about, you know, should Santa fail to call, the bears uh may come to broaden wall. Oh, you know the Santa Claus rally, it's supposed to this in just a minute because she's going to talk about market position, but

[33:06] the Santa Claus rally is supposed to last for the last five trading days of December and the first two in January. I remind everyone that this coin, this term was coined by Yale Hirs and the stock traders almanac. And the average

[33:20] and a.5%. We have not seen that yet >> in a week. So that's pretty solid when again, we got some looking at the market here. S&P pretty much unchanged on >> don't annualize weekly moves in the stock market

[33:35] stock market anyway. Uh all right. Huh. Yeah. Wow. anyway. Uh all right. Huh. Yeah. Wow. Okay. So, a wall QS are moving a bit. So, I've got Oracle's up about 13. He's trying. It's

[33:51] knocking on the door that 200. Uh I I expected this morning in our alpha a bit of a broadening out in the cues. Uh you know the market was negative this morning. I expected green. I think we'll close green.

[34:06] the alpha report uh you can get that at meet.com. You get lifetime access. You join once. You get all the fundamental analysis as well. But uh yeah hopefully this continues. I'm really looking for a 627 uh push by Jan 9. Honestly, I'd like

[34:23] to I'd like to see a break through into the 630s because then we can potentially get to all-time highs before January 9th and have some insulation. So, that could be interesting. We'll keep an eye on that. Uh the

[34:44] Let's go see here. What else is cooking? How are some of these retail plays doing? Dave and Busters isn't going anywhere. They've come back down after their earnings. Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. They're not going

[34:59] anywhere except maybe towards bankruptcy over time. Uh I've got Chipotle though is still recovering, right? Eh is you know Etsy is another one like of retail

[35:11] stocks that has been so cheap. Uh, and it's on this what I call this sort of it's on this what I call this sort of like slope over here, but um, man, it's been just stuck low at this $5 billion cap. And it's it's trading for under a

[35:25] one peg, but betting on the consumer is the hard thing to bet on right now. Palunteers came off 200 again. Nvidia, okay, came off 200 again. Nvidia, okay, Circle, Circle's consolidating. Tesla's,

[35:40] there's nothing really here to hold it. It's very likely going back to 433. Earnings would be an easy way to push back to 433. Uh although I think a lot because we know like the tax credits expired. It's going to be a rough

[35:55] expired. It's going to be a rough quarter. what else? Disney still sitting here 515. Although they've come up over the last couple weeks had a little bit of a recovery.

[36:14] Okay, cool. What else? Anybody have any questions? I'm running out of things to questions? I'm running out of things to talk about. I mean, uh, yeah, just some like I don't know. What should we talk about? There's There's nothing. I mean,

[36:29] I can only talk about like the coupon expiring tomorrow. It makes sense. It's the end of the month, right? other than Tony for like a few hours. We haven't done a coupon code since Black Friday. So, we'll have a big price increase

[36:45] that's going to be both on the Meet Kevin side and on the uh Reinvest AI side, which is kind of cool. You know, the fundraising is great. I give you the fundraising update. Uh yesterday we were at 3.8. Uh this morning we were at 4.5

[36:58] at 3.8. Uh this morning we were at 4.5 for the month and uh you know, we'll probably cross $5 million, which is crazy. $5 million month. The Epstein files. I Dude, I ain't doing the Epstein files, man. I don't know. Uh maybe maybe

[37:14] I'll make like a separate video, but I I don't want to sit there and go through it. Uh so the um liquidity is all dried up. Yeah, I don't

[37:27] know about that. Like there seems to be people I mean like if you look at what's going on in margin you still see people expanding on margin regularly. Ubiquitous ubiquity ubiquity is a great company

[37:42] great great company. Uh so I'm a like the amount of products that they keep coming out with. So good. So good. Can I use my back credit card? Your but is that Bank of America? Is that what that I usually

[37:57] hear? Bofa uh to invest 20K in house act. Yeah. Um you can that ends tomorrow. We can't wait. Housing question. In your opinion, how long does

[38:09] a landlord have to fix a major sewage issue? Tree roots going into the line before someone I know can find them in breach of agreement. Well, just because there's a root in the sewer doesn't make your property not habitable. Now, if the

[38:25] your property not habitable. Now, if the sewer line is backing up by regular use, concern and they need to hydrojet the line. But now, if you're throwing I'm just going to be extreme here. If you're purposfully throwing tampons in the

[38:40] drain and clogging it on the roots, well, then it's your fault and you have to pay for the hydrojet, you know? So, so it really depends. I think there's asking. Like just because a sewer has tree roots in it

[38:55] means nothing. Like lots of sewers have tree roots in it. You know how juicy sewers are for trees? Trees love sewers, [Laughter] you know. It's it's it's a little shitty

[39:08] you know. It's it's it's a little shitty topic, you know. Cameron, what's your take on trade school versus college university? Both, man. Do both. What? What else you got going on?

[39:23] Oh, Kevin, that's too much. No, it's not. Go do both. Hedge your bets. That's what I would do, man. Listen, if if I had no money or little money, you know,

[39:36] just just enough of a job to be able to pay, you know, the bills to go to like a community college, to go to which isn't that much money to get some kind of computer science exposure. I know everybody's like, "Ah, the AI is going

[39:49] to replace them." You know, you need people to run the AI, too. Uh, you know, I' I'd want to learn uh neural nets, machine learning, data science. Uh, and then at the same time, I'd go do the trades. I can make a lot of money doing

[40:04] money in the trades that I can make at a restaurant job. uh the trade could end up turning into a career where I run my own business and then I sell it to a VC fund in the future with all my, you know, fleet or

[40:16] whatever that I create. At the same time, I hedge to the upside with AI and AI learning, uh, data science, you know, I think it'd be great. I do both, you know, that's that's obviously if you're like 19, right, and you don't have kids.

[40:32] Now, if you have kids and bills and a house and a car and student loan debt, well, you're in a shittier spot, you know. So, uh, but you know, to that 19year-old who's who's making the question, oh, do I do college or trade

[40:46] school? Both. It ain't that hard. No, it's going to It ain't that hard. No, it's going to take time. So, grind. Uh, that'd be my take. Uh, so what's this? Hey, happy new year,

[41:02] good Christmas. Any New Year resolutions? Interesting. No, I actually don't have New Year resolutions. Uh, maybe I should make one. I mean, we have New Year plans. The big plan for me is focus on our AI. Like, that's that's I'm

[41:17] have so many things coming in 2026 for our AI product. And this is like, you know, in my opinion, I'm calling it like the makeorb breakak year where like we the makeorb breakak year where like we really got to break this app out. And uh

[41:31] is also one of the reasons we're closing the fundra cuz we're like you know if it does if it keeps doing really well why are we selling shares at this valuation you know at a real estate valuation. So, we're like, I can't wait to shut the

[41:45] door. But, but I told everybody that I would give fair notice that it's closing. Uh, you know, not association, read the operating circular, but I told I told everybody that I would give people a heads up. Uh, but otherwise,

[42:00] gone to the gym now for 31 days in a row. I've never done that in my life. I didn't want to start a New Year's resolution on January 1 because I feel like that's cliche. So, I sent a daily

[42:12] wealth out for free like I don't know 30 something days ago that uh you know I was going to start doing a workout. So, I would go into the new year with like 30 days or whatever under my belt of already consistently working out. Uh and

[42:26] 31. I'm just looking at it right here. It's great. So, that's that's cool. You It's great. So, that's that's cool. You know, maybe keep keep that going. know, maybe keep keep that going. Uh, so

[42:40] no, what when when we make a video, I mean fully going through the Reinvest app beyond what's on the website, we're just going to raise the price. Like what released is I want to I'll I'll make videos with the app but the price is

[42:55] just going to be higher then uh you know because there are people who bought when it was just an idea and you know and and even to some extent now uh like they deserve to get a better price you know buying now deserves to get a better

[43:09] price than the future in my opinion. Uh, so

[43:22] don't need employees right now with the exception of devs. We are hiring two devs starting Jan 1. You could email us at uh staffmeke.com if you've got a developer resume. Can actually be remote. You could do a remote remote

[43:36] dev. Yeah, my recommendation is only do five days a week at the gym. Every day isn't feasible consistently. Well, I I'm uh the kind of person that if I don't do it daily, it doesn't

[43:49] become a routine. So, you know, I'd rather I'd rather go daily. Um it's it's it's hard for me to have days be different. I could do different things

[44:01] at the gym, like an AB or an an A day and a B day, but it's got to be daily. Otherwise, it's like my day is not complete. I'm making a Roth IRA contribution. Should I keep it in cash now or start buying stocks? I mean, I

[44:15] here and you donated $5, you're going to get Gavin Newsome, come find me again. You know, that happened to me during the during my uh campaign in 2022

[44:27] donated money and they're like, "Hey, can you analyze this stock?" So, I analyze the stock after they donated and then California find me $5,000. They're advice." I'm like, "Dude, I'm making comments on YouTube, you jackasses. This

[44:43] is just because Gavin Newsome doesn't like me, isn't it?" No comment. like me, isn't it?" No comment. So, um, yeah, dude. I mean, I don't know. Like, I mean, everybody knows we're knocking

[44:57] get that labor data. I mean, here's here's my take, okay? January 9th labor data comes around, if Trump rigged it,

[45:09] maybe, but if that labor data comes in juiced, it's going to kill a lot of bearish narratives, let me see if there's a forecast out for it. Uh, and

[45:21] that could be a glorious rally to all-time highs. But if it comes in bad, we could tank. You know, it's so super binary that because it's going to be the it's going to be really the first jobs data that's not screwed up by all the

[45:36] government shutdown. So, it's almost going to feel like four jobs reports in one because it'll be like the December report, but then October, September. So, you get four jobs reports in one.

[45:51] That'll be pretty juiced. So, that'll be on the 9th. And the forecast on the 9th. And the forecast uh let's see here the forecast is 9th. Jan 9

[46:07] Jan 9th [Music] change of private. Wow. The forecast is 73,000 for private payrolls and 55 for the headline number. Prior was 64. That's decent. That's like right at

[46:22] That's decent. That's like right at break even. If we hit that 55k forecast. What is this though? There's a little intel note here. Double jobs report.

[46:44] AI related construction but not much else. Jobless rate rose briskly. a sign that the SAM rule could identify a recession would have been triggered if October's household survey had been cover conducted. Wow, that's blunt. The

[47:00] subpar jobs report could help fracture the FOMC towards a unified R um view of the FOMC towards a unified R um view of 100 basis points of cuts in 2026. Yeah, most of October's decline was due to the federal government sector.

[47:15] Private payrolls increased 52,000 in October, 69 November. Most sector shed workers hiring in November was mostly concentrated in education and health.

[47:33] 3 month moving average of job gains dropped to 22k. instead so we remove the government that is 75k in November 55k in October

[47:47] 57k in September we see this as a sign that the labor market has been gradually improving since the summer that would be very bullish bullish

[48:00] uh so says app store search doesn't list now we're going to we'll change the name to uh reinvest by meat, Kevin. But uh just go to the website, you know, go to

[48:12] househack.com or reinvest.co. That's uh that's the easiest way to get the the product right now. I let me just put it this way. I might make a video on this, okay? But so so this is what the app roughly looks like. We've changed a

[48:26] little bit of the scoring and the icons. If you sign up, you're going to get it within the next 30 hours. But I'm going to give you a very real example here. I might make a video on this later today, maybe. It depends on how I feel. But

[48:39] yesterday, I Where is it? Where's my chat? So, yesterday I'm sitting here and I'm like, h, let me go pop up of the app. So, I put in a certain city that's, you know, within a reasonable radius of where I am. So, I put in a city because

[48:56] I'm like, I want to make a demo video for for the Reinvest AI app. and I put in this city and within like three minutes I'm like, "Oh, oh." So, this deal comes up and it's got the more likely flag on it. I'll I'll I'll give

[49:11] you I'll give you a little a little example without revealing it yet, but it's got this little more likely flag on it, right? And I'm like, "Oh, what is wallpaper in there and the bathroom and all this stuff, right? And so anyway,

[49:26] all this stuff, right? And so anyway, I'm like, "Oh, what is this?" So, so I check this place out and I'm like, "Oh my gosh. There's like this place is selling for $500,000 less than some of the comps."

[49:41] And I'm like, "This is insane. I don't need 500 grand to fix that place up." Like, I could make House Hack a lot of money buying that deal. So, so instead going to write an offer for House Hack

[49:56] did. And I don't know, I mean, maybe I'll find out today if I get the deal, I'll find out today if I get the deal, but um I'm pretty excited about it. Uh but um I'm pretty excited about it. Uh because uh you know, the app works and

[50:10] I'm like, "Oh, man." Uh and it'll be even it'll be a magnitude better when we uh uh when we have our valuation AI because we don't have valuation AI yet. We just have um the visual identification now. And then once we do

[50:25] like, you know, it it would pop up and be like, "Oh, wow. That's, you know, a be like, "Oh, wow. That's, you know, a potential net worth boost of $400,000 or whatever." I'm like, "Oh, damn." So anyway, that's that's all to come.

[50:39] But it makes me very excited. Along with the call this morning that the Q's had an 80% chance of being green today. I hope we stay green because that was my hope we stay green because that was my call this morning.

[50:51] call this morning. Uh, so really excited about that. So, does the AI do comps? That's the valuation AI. So, the comps, the comp part comes next year. Uh, honestly, like this, I'm I want to get it out as soon

[51:05] as possible. Like, I'm I'm so anxious to get out the valuation AI because really what we do then is we'll be able to take a deal like that and then say, "Hey, we're comping this place out at this. It's listed for this. your fix up is

[51:21] going to cost this. Here's how much you could boost your net worth if you buy this deal. And then you could sort by deals like that. And agents can send those deals to their clients with their own notifications. We're like,

[51:35] be willing to pay for this is going to be insane because you're literally shooting, you know, tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars of net worth in an app. Uh, you know, the only reason we wanted

[51:48] don't have billions of dollars to go buy all the deals that we find. Uh, ourselves. But we can't. We don't have that much money. We got $14 million in

[52:00] the bank. Okay. Well, that lets me buy what 20 houses in certain areas, you know. So, um, anyway, yeah, that's pretty exciting. Uh so yeah, we don't actually think

[52:14] there is a house hack competitor. Uh not at this point. Uh if we want to invest different payment methods. Yeah, just email ir@ househack.com. It's a little

[52:26] more complicated, but I'm sure we can figure it out for you. So action today? And by net worth, you mean equity of the property? Well, yeah.

[52:40] Uh, I mean, but that's like buying a stock, right? Like if if you had a an app that's like, "Hey, man, if you buy this stock for $100, it's going to be worth $150 tomorrow." And you're asking me a

[52:53] question. So, is that like equity in the stock? Yeah. Duh. Um, well, Meta's not doing anything price action wise, you know. It's been at 666

[53:07] for like a month, bro. uh reinvest just uh dude I don't want to look at the meme stock right now uh but um reinvest just US right now but we'll expand it over time you know we we'll we'll perfect the US uh and uh and then

[53:25] maybe we'll do like an upload feature uh for for international or something over time. Why do you say AGI is not practical? It's just it's not happening. it. There's no evidence at all that we're

[53:40] even remotely close to it. We are really good at taking a world model and generating responses from a world model that is many orders of magnitudes away from artificial general intelligence. That's my opinion.

[53:55] Uh house hack minimum 20k to invest. Uh what else? thinking about picking anything up in the palaces? Nah, I dude

[54:08] anything up in the palaces? Nah, I dude I don't do LA, man. I don't want LA. I don't do LA. I hate LA. I don't like anything about LA. Uh it is the worst anything about LA. Uh it is the worst part of California for me. Uh I don't

[54:21] like driving there. I don't like anything about it. I've been clear about anything about it. I've been clear about that probably for a decade. that probably for a decade. Uh so

[54:35] cranking uh because that's uh that's what we were looking at at the alpha report this morning. Alpha report this morning was 80% chance up on the cues today. Slow schlloing up. Hope we keep pushing it.

[54:49] negative this morning. You know what what was it? I think it was down like 20 bips this morning. We're up 20 bips now. So, course member made my money on QQ. Out for the day. See y'all tomorrow. Let's go.

[55:03] Let's go. Deva Dvar Dvar Cooper. Deva Dvar Dvar Cooper. Congrats. Good job. What do you think AGI is? I think AGI is the ability to

[55:16] because you really have to you'd have to be able to generate uh be able to generate uh without a model basically. Right. But

[55:28] that's also interesting because then you look at and then there's obviously feeling and sentience which which is all just manipulated and and pretend right now when you talk to a chatbot. But um yeah that would be interesting defining

[55:42] AGI artificial general intelligence to where it's to where it's like a human aware of you'd have to be aware of its existence. They have to be able to existence. They have to be able to uh generate without a worldview

[55:56] uh generate without a worldview like a caveman. You know, a caveman uh to have emotion and to respond like a human without that world view is innate to a

[56:11] human, like a caveman in a cave, but not to to a computer. So, that's interesting. Somebody says, "I'm up 4K on QQQ call options. Let's freaking go. Good job. Uh, I'm traveling to China in a couple days. Anything you'd be

[56:25] interested in checking out? Oh, yeah. I'd love to see some Chinese FSD, know, to to if you have experience in Teslas. I'd love to see that. Yeah.

[56:37] How are Waller's odds of being fed here so low? I know. I I I think he's going to get picked, but uh Oh, we get the Fed minutes in three hours, two and a half hours. So,

[56:52] uh, House Hack owns multif family and single family, but right now the goal is, uh, really honestly just focusing on on our artificial intelligence. Like we'll we'll only the only stuff I'm buying if I'm buying, which we just

[57:06] bought 12 properties, they're all single families. And um after that you know again the the focus for next year is just just get this AI the valuation AI

[57:18] perfected. Uh it it takes a lot of work. The team works hard on it. We do our you The team works hard on it. We do our you know ideating for the app as well as um planning and and training training the models. So we have core models not like

[57:33] but real estate models that need training. So yeah, very interesting.

[57:46] and I've seen so many BYDs and Xbangs. Very sharp vehicles. Rode in a few of Very sharp vehicles. Rode in a few of them. Oh, nice. Oh, that's awesome.

[57:59] good one and ask them for recommendations. Uh, does the Reinvest app tell you it needs to be updated or will the App Store tell you? I don't know. Every phone is different. I mean, like it's not that hard. Just like what

[58:13] you could just open up your app store and then, you know, and for now, just type in the Meet Kevin app cuz we're going to we're going to make it reinvest by Meet Kevin. And yeah, I mean, mine's updated. 2.17 is the latest version on

[58:26] updated. 2.17 is the latest version on on Apple. So yeah,

[58:40] give it a shot. You can leave us a review if you want.

[58:56] yeah, fundra ends for house hack tomorrow. If you have questions, email [email protected]. >> Email ir@ househack.com. Boom. And uh that's all we got. So,

[59:11] thanks so much for being here. I'll be back if there's some news. See you in [Applause] [Music]