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Super Fun and Easy Way to Beat Baccarat and Make Millions

0h 22m video Published Oct 15, 2020 Transcribed Jul 18, 2026 A Advanced Advantage Play
Intermediate 10 min read For: Gamblers and casino enthusiasts interested in the mathematics behind baccarat and advantage play.
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AI Summary

This video debunks common myths about beating baccarat and reveals the only legitimate methods to gain an edge. The speaker explains why tracking the shoe, betting on streaks, following big players, using lucky charms, progression systems, money management, and card counting the main game are ineffective. Instead, he advocates for education, reading real experts, and employing scientifically proven advantage play techniques such as side bet card counting, exploiting casino promotions, edge sorting, tracking known cards, and loss rebate exploitation.

[01:04]
Tracking the Shoe Doesn't Work

Looking at the scoreboard and following patterns of player and banker to predict future results is fortune telling and mysticism, not a winning strategy.

[02:03]
Betting on Streaks is Fallacious

After a streak of banker or player, the next hand is no more likely to be banker or player. Cards have no memory and are not influenced by past outcomes.

[03:52]
Following the Big Player is Mythology

The size of a wager does not indicate knowledge or ability to predict outcomes. Cards don't know how much is being wagered or who is wagering it.

[05:00]
Lucky Charms and Superstitions Are Irrelevant

There is no such thing as a lucky number, day, time, or charm. Luck is probability taken personally, as illustrated by the foul ball example.

[06:39]
Progression Systems Don't Beat the House Edge

No system of changing bets (e.g., Martingale) can overcome the house edge. Expected loss is simply house edge times total amount wagered.

[07:59]
Money Management is a Fallacy

Leaving when ahead or having loss limits does not affect the outcome. You are playing one lifelong session; time between hands makes no difference.

[09:28]
Beware of Fake Baccarat Experts

Most self-proclaimed experts are system sellers peddling pseudoscience. Real experts base their work on statistics, mathematics, and simulations.

[10:51]
Card Counting the Main Game is Ineffective

Unlike blackjack, removing cards from a baccarat shoe changes the edge only microscopically. You might wait days for a single advantageous bet.

[12:30]
Step 1: Get an Education

Understand the mathematics behind casino games. Take college-level probability and statistics courses, or self-study if beyond college age.

[13:12]
Step 2: Read and Believe Real Experts

Consult mathematicians like James Grosjean, Michael Shackleford, and Edward Thorp who have done scientific research and simulations.

[14:08]
Step 3: Choose a Scientifically Proven Method

Learn advantage play techniques: card counting side bets (e.g., pairs bet, dragon 7), exploiting casino promotions, and card counting the tie bet.

[17:14]
Tracking a Known Card

If one card is exposed during the cut, its exact position can give a huge edge. This method has been used to win millions.

[18:22]
Edge Sorting

Exploiting microscopic asymmetries in card patterns to identify upcoming cards. Used famously by Phil Ivey, though legal status varies.

[19:15]
Loss Rebate Exploitation

Casinos offer loss rebates to big players. By keeping sessions short, a player can profit from the rebate while the game is nearly even. Don Johnson won $15M using this.

The only way to beat baccarat is through education and scientifically proven advantage play methods, not superstition or systems. Real success requires serious study and practice.

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Mentioned in this Video

Study Flashcards (5)

Why doesn't tracking the shoe work in baccarat?

easy Click to reveal answer

It is fortune telling and mysticism; patterns in the scoreboard have no predictive power for future hands.

01:04

What is the expected loss in baccarat?

easy Click to reveal answer

House edge times total amount wagered.

07:04

Name three real baccarat experts mentioned in the video.

medium Click to reveal answer

James Grosjean, Michael Shackleford, Edward Thorp.

13:12

What is edge sorting?

medium Click to reveal answer

Exploiting microscopic asymmetries in card patterns to identify which cards will be played next.

18:22

How did Don Johnson win $15 million in Atlantic City?

hard Click to reveal answer

By exploiting loss rebate programs: keeping sessions short so that winning and losing are equally likely, but the rebate makes losing less costly.

20:27

💡 Key Takeaways

💬

Luck is Probability Taken Personally

Penn Jillette's quote encapsulates the fallacy of superstition in gambling.

05:44
📊

House Edge is Unbeatable by Betting Systems

Mathematical law: expected loss = house edge × total wager, regardless of bet progression.

07:04
💡

Education is the First Step

Contrasts with fake systems; real advantage play requires understanding probability and statistics.

12:30
🔧

Tracking a Known Card

Exposed card during cut can give huge edge; used to win millions.

17:14
🔧

Loss Rebate Exploitation

Mathematically sound method that has yielded millions for players like Don Johnson.

19:15

✂️ Creator Tools: Viral Hooks

AI-generated clip ideas for Shorts based on the transcript

No viral clips found for this video, or they are still being generated.

[00:08] and today i'm going to show you a fun and easy way to make millions of dollars playing baccarat i have a little bit of a little bit of a subversive motive for this video i

[00:23] look on youtube and see a lot of videos that say hey win millions or how to make playing bachra so i figured i want to make my own video and tell you how you really can make millions playing baccarat but i want to

[00:38] start by showing you all the ways you can't these other videos fail to do is to say hey

[00:51] work so let's just go ahead and do that so all right fun and easy way to beat bakara and fun and easy way to beat bakara and win millions so

[01:04] what doesn't work to beat bakra well the first thing that doesn't work is tracking the shoe and what that means is looking at the scoreboard following patterns of player and banker and trying to deduce

[01:18] from those patterns some future result from the shoe it's the belief that from the shoe it's the belief that there are things that you see in clouds tea leafs are telling you the future it's fortune telling

[01:34] it's mysticism and it has absolutely nothing to do with beating bakra so if see someone talking about how they're tracking the shoe in a casino or you see a book on it or a website where people are talking

[01:49] just know that this is one of the ways that does not work to be bakra what else doesn't work well betting on streaks probably the most common thing to do on bachra is to observe

[02:03] a streak of banker or player and say okay ends it's as if saying that the shoe somehow it's as if saying that the shoe somehow has an intention to do a certain thing

[02:17] giving the shoe some sort of cognition some consciousness some awareness of intent events are just random and after a streak of bankers of whatever length the next hand is no more likely to be

[02:33] banker than any other hand the house edge is most likely pretty close to the same house edge as it's been cards don't know their history and are not

[02:46] influenced by their history if you want to read more about this there's been a lot of research in psychology over the last 15 years or so into something called illusory pattern

[02:59] and it just turns out that the more chaotic chaotic the event the more we lack control over something the more we tend to see

[03:13] patterns there and think we actually see something that has meaning that we can make sense of so in situations of chaos and lack of control we see patterns this is not something that's a fault of

[03:27] humans this is a genealogical evolutionary trait of humans that helped us survive it's all right if this happens to you but just be aware that it has nothing to do with

[03:40] that it has nothing to do with beating the game of bakra huge crowds gathered around a player

[03:52] who's betting large sums as if that person just by virtue of them wagering large amount amounts of money has some knowledge some mystical understanding of the game that other people don't have and

[04:05] it is even considered rude to bet against the person who is betting the most at the table as if that you are challenging their awareness of the universe their ability to foretell events

[04:19] ability to foretell events so look nobody has any more or less else the events are random the whole idea of following the big player is just more mythology the cards don't

[04:32] how much is being wagered or who is doing the wagering they will not that not influence the outcome of the hand there is virtue by virtue of the size of the wager

[04:47] at predicting what the outcome of the hands are going to be bakra has a huge share of this if you've ever

[05:00] looked at a bakra table you may notice that spot four is missing just for there is no such thing as a lucky number a lucky day a lucky day a lucky time a lucky charm so if you

[05:14] want to start playing bachra at 808 pm if you want to sit at 808 pm if you want to sit in seat 8 if you care about which direction the entrance to the casino is facing

[05:30] whether you have some sort of lucky charm with you some rabbit's foot or special coin all of these things have nothing to do with beating the game of baccarat as penn jillette famously said luck

[05:44] is probability taken personally and let me just give you a quick example of that a foul ball at a baseball game is hit into the stands with 40 000 people in the stands that foul ball is going to land on

[06:00] that foul ball is going to land on some person right that is inevitable with a full pack stadium that is what probability is that is what inevitability is whereas the person who caught the foul

[06:13] ball that's what luck is so you just happen to be that lucky player when you win good for you that doesn't mean you know done has influenced the shoe or influenced

[06:27] has influenced the shoe or influenced that outcome in your favor making the size of your wager dependent on your previous wager

[06:39] and the outcome of your previous hands so for example one famous system the martingale system just simply has you doubling up after each loss and when you finally win um because

[06:52] you've doubled up on each hand your net result will be to be ahead one unit so no progression system works there is a law this is a mathematical law the house

[07:04] edge is the house edge no system of changing bets and hand outcomes will have any effect on your expected loss and what is your expected loss

[07:16] it's simply the house edge time the total amount you bet so if you're betting on banker and it has a 1.06 house edge i don't care how you arrange your wagers what sequence you do

[07:29] doubling or increasing by one unit or what system whether it's labour what system whether it's labour d allen baer or martingale or whatever just take the total amount you've wagered multiply it by the house edge

[07:46] that's your expected loss at the game and nothing else matters that's the law

[07:59] time just perfectly when you leave the casino just perfectly when you leave the casino when you um stopping after a win when you um stopping after a win having a lost limit that somehow this

[08:14] have an impact on whether you can beat the game or not like well you just have to walk away after a certain amount and book that win for the day well that's great you can certainly do

[08:29] don't say aha you have been here all day and i have to make you lose and if you go away from the casino and return the next the cards somehow forget who you are and say aha

[08:44] to win again this is just a fallacy the whole idea of money management is a fallacy you're playing one session of bachra that's the session of your life no amount of time between hands makes a bit

[09:01] of difference whether you win or lose at that lifetime so money management leaving when you're ahead having a wind goal or a loss limit being disciplined all of these things

[09:14] baccarat and anybody who tells you differently is and anybody who tells you differently is peddling flim-flam and pseudoscience

[09:28] talking about the bakra experts out there the people on the message boards the people writing these books about their looking for patterns or how you should raise and lower your bets

[09:40] exist there is no such thing as a bachra expert there are just fake system sellers there artists and they are pervasive in the game of bakra

[09:55] all you have to ask yourself is is what they're selling is it based on statistics is it based on mathematics probability mathematics probability science and logic if you can actually

[10:08] simulations um read about how these results are well i doubt that you're ever going to find that but if you do that's something that would be good to look at there are actual experts out

[10:23] but the guy that calls himself an expert probably not so here's how experts work they make up something they sell it for a lot of and then when you call them on it they attack

[10:37] and then they deny and then they attack and then they deny so stay away from so-called bakra experts

[10:51] is dealt from a shoe just like the game of blackjack but that doesn't mean that count this game the way you can count blackjack individual cards being removed from the shoe only make a microscopic change in the

[11:05] edge these edges that change are so small that effectively they don't exist they don't show up in any way in terms of the any noticeable change to the house edge in blackjack

[11:19] there are many situations where you can actually quantify that the house edge doesn't happen in bakra well it may happen if you were to play a thousand hands of bakra a thousand coup you may

[11:35] one of those 1000 hands where you have a microscopically small advantage but you have to use a computer to find it and a card counting says system by itself may just be so ineffective

[11:49] that you just sit there for days and days waiting to make a bet with an edge and you never make one so card counting it's better than flim but card counting the player and banker is not

[12:01] is not a viable approach to beating bakra all right so i've covered now all of the things that don't work these are things that don't work to beat background make millions super fun easy

[12:15] millions of dollars at bakra but those are probably the things that you are does work you can make millions of dollars beating bakra

[12:30] so here's the super fun and easy way to beat bakra and make millions step one get an education and i mean this you need to understand the mathematics

[12:42] that is behind casino games you need to take a solid curriculum in college mathematics classes including probability and statistics topics if you're no longer college age

[12:57] this is absolutely dead serious it is super fun and easy to get educated it's something that everyone should want to do and an education is an absolute must in order to beat the house step number

[13:12] two read and believe what the experts say i well probably the people you've been reading who have been calling themselves experts are not experts there are actually a

[13:25] a couple of their names so if you go out and track down what these people say you may find a little bit more information james gross gene michael shackleford edward thorpe these

[13:41] are all mathematicians these are all people who have done scientific research into the game whose results are based on simulations work so yes there are experts but you have to

[13:55] go to the right experts the ones who have the education who are leading the way super fun and easy thing to do number three after you have educated yourself after

[14:08] you've read what the experts say then you get to choose a method to beat the house but make it a practical method that is proven scientifically to work so you have to learn a method and this

[14:21] may take a little bit of effort on your part so there are methods that work to beat bachra they require study and practice these methods are part of a larger field of endeavor

[14:34] called advantage play so look up advantage play in wikipedia google that term and you'll find that there are dedicated scientists out there working to figure out ways to beat games

[14:48] ways that we can beat bachra now i'm not make millions these are just some straightforward ways to beat the game you can use card counting against a side bet i said card counting the main game

[15:03] player banker isn't effective but there are side bets that are very vulnerable pairs bet where you're betting that the two cards dealt to the player or the banker

[15:16] the dragon 7 that are vulnerable so you can look up the side bets that are on the game that you're playing at and you can do the research find a way to beat those side bets and you will

[15:32] are vulnerable and some aren't my opinion the paris bet right now internationally is the most vulnerable side bet out there next thing you can do is you can attempt to beat the casino

[15:47] so you may find that the casino you're going to gives away promotional chips match play show up money free play whatever it is all of these things have value and it

[16:03] to accumulate enough value through the marketing and promotion that the casino offers to overcome the house edge you have to know what those values are and how to optimize the gain that you get

[16:17] against the casino by trying to exploit their marketing and promotions programs the third one is the thai bet this may be the smallest and most minimally successful way to beat bakra but it is

[16:32] possible to card count the thai bet it is possible to do what's called an end play against the tie bet where towards the end of the shoe you notice that the remainder of the shoe makes the tie far more likely for

[16:45] if all of the cards remaining are face cards then it will be a zero zero tie if they're all fives it'll be a five five tie if they're all eights it'll be a six six tie

[16:57] so there are ways to beat bakra they don't the thai bet but something to be aware of but what we want to do is we want to you a couple ways that people have made millions of

[17:14] legally against the game of bakra by employing scientifically proven methods the first is tracking a known card the most notorious of this is during the cut procedure when

[17:28] typically 14 cards are cut from the bottom of the shoe the bottom part of the shoe may be exposed and it may be possible to track if you know one card in a shoe it might take an hour or an

[17:43] hour and a half for that card to come into play in a hand but the fact exact position of that card can give you a huge edge over the casino and there have been instances where

[17:55] millions of dollars have been taken from casinos by people who exploited just the of one single card and its exact position in the shoe so any exposed card no matter how or when it is seen can

[18:10] no matter how or when it is seen can lead to a potential edge for the gambler method two edge sorting you probably know about this method from phil ivey he won millions at crawford's casino

[18:22] coast of the united states and he's won millions in other casinos around the world that didn't come forward to make a claim against him so this method is highly successful

[18:36] and it's not only successful against bachra it's been successful against carnival games as well so edge sorting taking note of microscopic asymmetries in the cards and using those

[18:51] to be able to help identify which cards are going to be played in the next hand this is a very very powerful method powerful method well and just so you know it's not

[19:03] clearly legal in all jurisdictions it's never been determined however to be criminal cheating either there's been some civil cases of course one against phil ivey

[19:15] course one against phil ivey who used this method is where someone may the casino may offer the big player a rebate on his law so for example

[19:30] a rebate on his law so for example he may get a 20 loss rebate so that if loses a million dollars he gets hundred thousand dollars back in a rebate if he wins a million he gets to keep the whole million well bakra

[19:43] is nearly an even game over the short run so if you can keep your sessions then either winning a million or losing a million if you're making for example 100 000 wagers may be roughly equally likely well when you win

[19:58] you keep the million when you lose a you only lose 800 000 you can see every two sessions on average two sessions on average you may um win 200 000

[20:11] so that is an average of a profit of about a hundred thousand a session that simple example just highlights how vulnerable these games are bachra and other games blackjack craps roulette to this method

[20:27] lost rebate exploitation you may know the name don johnson who won about 15 million dollars in atlantic city using this method of exploiting loss rebates and other teams and people

[20:41] internationally have been beating bacara for many many years by exploiting loss rebate programs so these are scientifically scientifically based methods for beating

[20:54] bachra there is no flimflam in these but you need an education you need to to do this study so next time somebody is talking to you

[21:07] about a method to be bakra use your common sense and maybe use a little bit of what i presented here of what i presented here because bakra

[21:19] player but there are no recreational ways to beat it don't be deceived but there are serious ways that knowledgeable people can

[21:33] beat this game and if that's what you really want to do then you've got to follow the super fun and easy way to beat bakra and make millions that i've laid out in this video you may think that this

[21:48] is just for players to help them beat the house but the truth is that many the same false beliefs about some of these bogus of beating the house you would not believe how many people

[22:03] the games think that progression systems money management following the board card counting and a number of other methods can actually be bakra they can't all right they

[22:17] they cannot beat the game if you want to beat bacara you need to get educated you need to know what works and what doesn't you need to listen to the experts and no matter which side of the table

[22:30] this knowledge education is always the thing you should lead with well that's my message so go out and or go out and stop people from making millions but have it be based on

[22:45] real alright everyone this is ellia jacobson jacobson so long

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