The 4 Year Cycle Is Dead (Why 2026 Is The New Peak)

[00:01] probably think this bull run is over and that this crypto cycle just completely skipped the parabolic / alt season phase of the cycle. But if you look at the actual liquidity and macro setup, it tells a completely different story. We

[00:14] have already officially flipped from tightening to easing and the Fed has printer. And while retail is currently panic selling, institutions are quietly mass adopting for the next wave. That's why I'm betting literally my entire net

[00:28] worth that the real parabolic run isn't behind us, but it's actually loading right now for 2026. This is a post from Coinbase Institutional and they said this, "Easing comes, tightening goes." The Fed's 25 basis point cut

[00:42] but their plans to make reserve management purchases RMP of UST bills news to say the least. If you guys don't know what this means, this means that the Fed is turning back on the money printer. When the Fed expands its

[00:58] balance sheet, that is them printing money. That is turning back on the money printer. When people talk about QE and all these things, that's balance sheet What the Fed has been doing for the past couple years has been quantitative

[01:10] balance sheet, the opposite of balance sheet expansion. And not only did we get the end to quantitative tightening, but in kind of the same breath, we've now gotten the start of balance sheet expansion. And they're not calling it

[01:24] up with a new name to kind of hide what they're doing, but this is money printing. This is balance sheet expansion. As Lyn Alden says right here, not is more semantics. Fed won't call it QE since it's not duration. And this is

[01:39] a post from Joe talking about balance sheet expansion in the past or money "Reminder, Bitcoin managed to climb from 16,000 to 126,000 as the Fed reduced its balance sheet for 3 years, quantitative tightening."

[01:54] that the Fed is expanding the balance sheet to increase bank reserves, all that all the price action that we've seen over the last few years has been in the worst possible conditions. This is what I've highlighted many times. The

[02:09] over the last couple years have been horrible. And yet despite that, 126,000 mostly from this institutional structured bid in the market. Now, not only do we have that and it's ramping

[02:23] up, which we're going to get to a little bit later, but we're also seeing macro easing. We're seeing the Fed turn back on the money printer. Now, what's crazy details in just a second is that's right up until the end of Powell's term. So

[02:38] basically, even before Powell is officially out of office, he's already turning back on the money printer. And then after he leaves, we're going to get a new Fed chair and we already know this next Fed chair is hand selected by Trump

[02:50] with the sole mission to run the economy as hot as possible into midterms. We're second. But basically, myself included, almost nobody anticipated that we would get the money printer turned back on >> [laughter]

[03:05] >> before Powell left office or at least this soon. Like this is crazy this is we're going to see that all the way right up until the new Fed chair gets put in place and we likely see these measures taken even further is just

[03:19] bonkers for the implications of what's going to happen in 2026. This is why you have people like Raoul Pal coming out and saying that the 4-year cycle is now a 5-year cycle, something that I've been talking about for a long time. And that

[03:32] talking about for a long time. And that the big liquidity burst is yet to come. Now, when talking about the next Fed chair, this has really turned into an epic saga with just massive implications for how 2026 is going to play out. Right

[03:45] now, the race is down to basically two people, the two Kevins, Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. And here's a quote from Kevin Hassett. He says, "I'll go wherever Trump tells me." And here's some of the things Trump is likely to

[03:58] the next Fed chair should consult with him on where to set interest rates. wants interest rates. President Trump is asked where he wants interest rates to be next year. His response, "1% and maybe lower

[04:12] >> and maybe lower than that." And then this post adds on on the bottom, "You post talking about Trump and interest rates. Trump is openly selecting a Fed chair who will lower rates to help finance our deficits. Welcome to fiscal

[04:25] dominance. And then this article says, "Asked where he wants interest rates to maybe lower than that." He said, "Rate cuts would help the US Treasury reduce the cost of financing 30 trillion in government debt. We should have the

[04:38] basically, we're in a situation before even Powell has left office, we've already cut rates three times. We've already ended QT. We've already started the money printer back up. And we have

[04:51] Trump saying that he's going to select the next Fed chair as the person who's most likely to execute the plan that he wants to be done, which is to take rates wants to be done, which is to take rates down to 1% or lower, which is absolutely

[05:04] insane in terms of like liquidity and the markets and asset prices just going lower than that. He wants the lowest interest rate on the planet. And this is what I've been saying. Trump has flipped fully into midterms mode. Trump and his

[05:19] team have a plan for 2026 and that's to win the midterms. And there's only one path to win the midterms and that is you have to make people happy. You got to heading the right direction. And the only way to do that is to get the

[05:33] economy booming, which hasn't happened since 2021, okay? then. The stock market and all these things might, doing good, this, this." You know, I've given reasons for why those things are

[05:47] out and all that kind of stuff. But the ISM really is a pretty good measure of like where things have been. But we haven't seen anything meaningful like we have in the past. And again, I always point out this chart goes all the way

[06:00] back to 1948. Look at this. Same pattern all the way from 1948 until literally flatlines. And you know, you really see that with when it zooms out. It just down. It doesn't really go crazy up, it just kind of goes sideways. And we've

[06:16] been stuck in this weird purgatory since 2022. Trump's entire mission right now is to take this and put it up here. Because if this goes up here, that means the economy is booming. And that means people are probably going to vote for

[06:30] they're going to want more of that. And the way you get this to here >> is you're going to have to do some crazy stuff with policy to stimulate the economy, which is exactly what they're planning on doing, which is exactly why

[06:44] he's wants rates down to 1%. And this is the reason I've been saying 2026 is going to be bananas, but now also Coinbase Institution is saying the same same thing. And now you even have CZ

[06:56] be a crypto supercycle in 2026. And I know that term supercycle kind of that's what people were saying and then we fell off a cliff. But it's important to highlight that back in 2021, everyone believed that we were going into a

[07:09] bananas. Right now, nobody does. Nobody except for, you know, like a small, small handful of people. That really is end of this cycle, everyone's going to believe it's an institutional driven

[07:21] supercycle and that we're going way higher. And at that moment, when that'll be when we crash. But I think we're a long, long, long ways away from that. Now, on a different note, completely outside of all the positive

[07:35] liquidity news, I want to highlight how just absolutely absurd the current setup I wrote this post on X. One day we'll look back at this time period when almost daily we were getting gigabullish announcements from the SEC, the CFTC,

[07:48] the United States President, Wall Street and almost every major institution on Earth and wonder how everyone couldn't see what was obviously coming. Here's mean. Here's Brian Armstrong. Institutions are moving into crypto

[08:00] about how Standard Chartered and Coinbase deepen a partnership to expand collaboration. Here's another post. The entity that settles 3.7 quadrillion annually just got SEC approval to

[08:13] tokenize on blockchains. The DTCC received a no action letter from the SEC yesterday. They can tokenize Russell 1000 stocks, tokenize US Treasuries, tokenize ETFs tracking major indices, deploy on L1 and L2 providers. Timeline,

[08:27] H2 2026. Their goal is to create a single pool of liquidity across TradFi and DeFi ecosystems. custodies 99 trillion in securities. The pool is now looking for blockchain rails. Here's the CTFC chair saying that

[08:41] will bring trillions into the US market. Here's a post from SEC chair Paul Atkins talking about has he talked to Maria last week. US financial markets are poised to move on chain. Under my leadership, SEC gov is prioritizing

[08:56] technologies to enable this on chain future while continuing to protect of America saying that banks will move on chain over the next several years. saying that they they will now accept Bitcoin as collateral for loans. I hope

[09:11] you're getting the picture of just how absurd this is. It actually is absurd how much bullish news, institutional adoption, institutional on ramps are coming into crypto. The kind of news we used to freak out about in 2021 and 2017

[09:25] was like, "Oh my gosh, they acknowledge crypto exists." And now they're adopting >> [laughter] >> They want the banks to come on chain. They they want to tokenize the the stock market and everything in between. Crypto

[09:38] ETFs are breaking records for these large institutions and they're planning on launching a ton more. Regulation is coming through. This is is happening right now and it's it's not slowing down, it's speeding up. That's

[09:51] look back at this time period and wonder how everyone couldn't see what was obviously coming next. I I really think like people from a couple years in the know?" Hey, yeah. How could they look at all this and be

[10:04] be insanely bullish." It's the same thing when people look back in 2021, why didn't everyone just invest? Like that was so obvious." I think the setup right now is even more obvious, and yet people have never been more bearish, it

[10:18] feels like. Like there's just a ton of insanely bearish people right now. 2026 is going to be exactly what everyone expected 2025 to be. The setup is absolutely perfect. We're flipping from tightening to easing. It's the only path

[10:32] to a midterm election win for the Republicans. Incentives are aligned just as institutional adoption is going parabolic. This is why I have my literally entire net worth in crypto. Don't let the current chop in negative

[10:44] of this is investment advice. None of this is me telling you to do anything financial advisor, and you should do your own research. And if you're curious want to see every time I buy and sell various tokens, as well as different

[10:57] weekly video market updates. Uh currently the Obsidian Council is closed the waitlist in the description of this video. If this video was helpful, make make sure you hit that subscribe button and the little bell next to it to be

[11:09] video. Thanks for watching, and I'll see you next week.