Crypto Alert: We're Done

[00:01] at the start of the year, are just completely over and finished. They're pumping are now not pumping. So, let's talk about that. Um you have the AI falling away. Right? Micron and Intel are down,

[00:16] they're both 30% from their highs. Still a great performance this year. But, they haven't really gone up for months. The Nasdaq has gone sideways for 3 to 4 SpaceX is below its IPO price. It's down 40% from the highs.

[00:31] these things? Bitcoin's had its the majority of its can see it's trying to find the bottom here. So, for Bitcoin, actually a really good and healthy thing would be for this thing to

[00:46] go very low volatility sideways for a while. That actually marks bottoms, not recoveries like this. This is when you get very, very strong like short covering rallies. It's where the traders

[01:01] So, they made a successful trade, right? They went short, and they quickly just covered their shorts, and the market rallies. What you want is price action more like this, which is completely dead sideways price

[01:16] action. That actually is much um more suggestive of a kind of a true market So, throughout the summer, if we go sideways that's actually pretty good news. But,

[01:30] this is one of the world's best assets. It's going to keep going up versus dollars. It has a 20 to 40% growth rate, and you're buying it at a very, very attractive time. Versus the AI trade,

[01:43] which has exploded, right? Silver had a huge run. Gold had a huge run. Those runs are over. You can see it, right? The prices those? Would you want to buy Bitcoin, which already has has through that?

[01:56] We're in a great period here. That's easy. These other assets. Um I just don't like the AI trade, to be totally honest. Like Micron and Intel, I don't want to buy those companies. I'll buy the Nasdaq and it will sort itself

[02:08] out. But I I think over a long-term time horizon, the thing that makes money is having a monopoly on distribution of products and services, not the LLMs. I don't think those are commodities. They're like block space. LLMs are

[02:22] commoditizing it, right? You can see all of their open-source models are just as They're or thereabouts with the things from commodities. They're not worth anything. What is

[02:35] worth something is the monopolization of product distribution, which is why I buy the Nasdaq because you've got a tech monopoly in the Nasdaq. They have monopolization of distribution of the internet, right? They just do.

[02:47] the tech. Right? The LLMs are being commoditized Right? The LLMs are being commoditized by Chinese LLMs. So, they're not the That's why Anthropic is lobbying for regulation, telling everyone that AI is

[03:00] going to destroy everything and kill the human race, cuz they want regulation to monopolize their distribution. That is the scarce thing, not the LLMs. So, I I really just don't like a the whole AI thing. And when it's this AI trade in

[03:14] getting good prices there, right? When Bitcoin is off 50% and everyone's deriding it and right? That is actually that's a good price because no one likes this thing anymore. Maybe SpaceX, which I called a low-float

[03:28] high-FDV shitcoin because it is, um is actually better value now at minus 40% from the highs. I love the company. I just don't like the fact that only 5% of the shares are free float. But 40% off, that's more attractive.

[03:43] Right? So, fundamentals versus price. I don't like the AI trade. Anything that's popular is not good value. Um so, I'll buy the Nasdaq and I buy Bitcoin because it's a monopoly on money. And that's it. It's

[03:59] going to outperform over the long term. If you want to trade Bitcoin crypto, description. Click that, make a deposit as a new user and they'll give you a $30,000. When Bitcoin hits a new all-time high again at some point in the

[04:12] future, it'll be the popular trade again, it'll be in news headlines and in being excited about it cuz they want to make some money. They don't really believe in the asset. They don't want to go through the thick and thin and

[04:24] make that much for returns because they're buying a high price. And but you can't just wait for prices to be high to convince you that the asset is good. That's just diabolical behavior, right? And silver's taken a bath so no one's

[04:38] asking about it now. They were asking about silver. Silver is garbage, it's commodity. Okay? The price goes up, they just dig more out, they make it, they It's a commodity. It's why it's called a commodity cuz it's garbage, right? It's

[04:52] not an asset. So it's ridiculous that people ask about it when the price is high. It's diabolical behavior. Make a fundamental decision about what good assets are and buy them over time, especially when the price is low. And

[05:06] in relation to the trend if you have conviction. A lot of people don't. What they do is watch videos and look for little metrics money. You're just you're just playing around.

[05:20] It's not It's not real, right? Look, what we see here is from people that bought the top. They're capitulating, which ultimately is the kind of bottoming process of the the bear market, right? In light blue, this

[05:37] is long-term holders realized losses into exchanges. They're not long-term the top, sold the bottom. It's diabolical behavior. What are you even doing? It doesn't make any sense. Why would you buy something and then sell it

[05:50] it a higher price, but you don't want to buy at a lower price? That doesn't make any logical sense whatsoever. What are you doing? Right? It's because you about or have any conviction in or even want to own. You just want to make a

[06:03] little bit of money for yourself. And of course, you get tested and you bottom, you're buying the top. They did it here as well. see the big spike. So, are we in a bottoming process? Yes, I think so. Is

[06:17] this the bottom? I think it's the wrong question, right? It's like if you want to trade the asset, then wait for it to break through the technicals. And if you're really investing, then you you know that these are good prices in

[06:30] relation to the trend. And if you believe in it or not. Look, we have the age band awakening by year, right? This will be known as the great rotation. The great rotation of Bitcoin from any person that ever bought it

[06:44] reaches 100k, I'll I'll take some off the table, right?" Cuz you make great 100x. You're going to take some off, right? You're going to go, "What? 100k? I'll take some off." If you bought at 10, made a 10x. You bought at 50 around

[06:57] the ETFs, cuz they started I think the ETF launch was around 30 40k. through the ETFs, even you'll say to yourself, you know, "If I make a quick, here, I'll just take some off." Everyone just went great rotation out. That's why

[07:13] People talking about quantum or anything else or is Bitcoin fake? Look, the 100k level, everyone, the whole entire network went, "Ah, sigh of relief. I'll let some go." There's a bid in infinite size

[07:28] and I can withdraw that money to my bank account without being called a criminal. off the table. Ooh, we can calm down now. That's what the network is doing. And then other things pump, gold and silver and everything. So, everyone

[07:43] Do you have conviction in this though? Do you have conviction in this asset? In fact, down here, you need the least amount of conviction because the price is at trend or slightly below trend. And so, where's the risk reward here?

[07:57] Very, very good. Up here, less so. So, I'll tell you my strategy. Anything under this red line, I buy. because I don't want to outperform an asset growing 30% a year.

[08:11] Why do you want to outperform that? 30% compounded year over year, that's Right? I don't want to be a hero. Anything up here, it's like way too high um you know, not going to be buying. Probably uh even if we get to this,

[08:25] insane." It's happened here as well, right? If you buy these levels, you're not getting great forward returns. Here, under this red line, this is just my analysis of the price, right? I think it's within the range, right? But look,

[08:38] of relief. Came off, but the reality is there is huge rotation at these levels into sovereign wealth funds and strategy, which are net buyers over time. They're

[08:51] not what they do, right? Strategy is not going to sell for a profit. They're going to continue their strategy over and over. And all of the They don't distribute. So, you've got a great rotation here.

[09:03] And what's happened is you've moved from people that traded individual hedge funds or traders or whatever. They took a sigh of relief, and that's And it's just the same over and over and over, right? Rotates, rotates, rotates

[09:17] save it. People that want to let it go. But look, the price moves up higher and higher in a trend. This is a great price, and I have conviction in the asset. I don't want to go and buy Intel and Micron. I have no idea about those

[09:30] companies, and I don't want to build my life around Micron or Intel, right? You can't do that. But I can build my life around a worldwide So, that's the difference. The most interesting thing from Kevin Warsh's

[09:44] his confirmation once again that the Fed controls inflation. And he said in no "Monetary policy from the Fed controls inflation. We have complete control over the price level of everything." And that's true. Everything is priced in

[09:59] dollars, and the Fed controls dollars 100% complete and total control. They control the amount of dollars in services, and they control the interest rate, which controls risk-taking and

[10:13] of dollars, right? They control everything. They wanted high inflation. Transitory was a lie. And it's amazing how the most nefarious lies in humanity just

[10:26] get dismissed because they're so big and they're so destructive that our mind can't even comprehend them. Right here, destroyed. Everything went up like double price,

[10:40] even higher. Everything went up in price cuz they printed dollars, and our wages didn't go up, so we got wrecked. up, so we got wrecked. Transitory, the biggest lie in humanity.

[10:52] Everyone got destroyed. They control the price level. They can't have debt deflating, so they destroy everyone with dollars.

[11:06] They want positive price inflation. They say that they want core PCE to be around 2%. What they want to do is slowly steal

[11:18] so that nobody notices and causes a a you know, a hullabaloo politically. Everything goes on. Everything is mild. Mild, fast or slow,

[11:30] we know the game, right? They're destroying all of the productivity of dollar holders. They want to distribute stable coins hold dollars, which is essentially a tax on what you

[11:45] of it. tax, right? Inflation is the tax. They said inflation. 2% core PCE, real inflation is 10% plus,

[12:03] 2% core PCE, real inflation is 10% plus, right? starts to bid up Bitcoin. Why is that? As inflation comes down, remember things should deflate. The price of

[12:18] things should get cheaper because we supply them. People working, using energy, creating widgets takes nothing from me. But if they supply 100 widget widgets 1 year and 1,000 the next, they've

[12:33] out of my pocket. I've not bought anything, but the supply has increased, the unit price comes down. Because inflation is coming down, "Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. We need to tax some of that. We need to

[12:48] That's not how it works." So if inflation comes down, what's the Fed print money. Inflation goes higher, they say, "Whoa, much inflation. We're we're we're stealing too much now.

[13:03] You're you're going to get upset and start to riot, start to get politically we don't want that. We want to steal mildly so you don't notice. But as inflation comes down, the market knows what the Fed is going to do, which is

[13:18] ease policy. They want to steal from you in a mild They want to steal from you in a mild band.

[13:32] It's a child's drawing. This is the amount of federal debt, which is money, by the way, right? It's currency.

[13:49] This is the S&P and Bitcoin. The S&P is not going up in value. constantly increase the amount of revenue they make? It's impossible. Isn't it?

[14:04] When you value their production in something that is scarce, something that is scarce, they cannot constantly make more of it. earned, which is deflation.

[14:18] The S&P isn't going up, man. How can it go up valued in dollars? You It can't go up in dollars if the amount of dollars stays fixed.

[14:32] after the '70s when they went off the gold standard, after 2008. supply is going to rise exponentially. Just like every other fiat, that's the

[14:46] way the system is designed. There's no other way it can work. that's what happens when you when you price production in something that's fixed, it the production must go down,

[15:00] down, not up. Over the long term, this is why I want to hold Bitcoin as a fixed monetary asset. But, look, S&P is better than holding

[15:13] That's how much you've been taxed if you held dollars, which is why they want stable coins to proliferate.

[15:25] Life is simple, right? S&P, Nasdaq, Bitcoin. Don't hold dollars. You'll get wrecked. buy it right now, uh go to the link in description, click

[15:40] get a deposit bonus when you sign up. I'm James as in J, 2 for watching, and I'm James as in J, 2 for watching, and I'll see you in the next one.