5 Rules to Beat NFL Betting — Step-by-Step Guide & Transcript

[00:02] over my career. Verify from a third-party bet tracker called Pickicket. Now, I didn't use tout services or pay for picks. I followed five simple rules that I check every single time before I place a bet. And in

[00:14] this video, I'm covering exactly what those five rules are. Rule number one is the foundation of what everything else is built on. And if you're not following this rule, nothing else in this video matters. Line shopping is the most

[00:26] profitability when you're betting on the NFL. All of these sports books set their own odds independently. There's not one central price like the stock market. So, first game of the season between the Patriots and the Seahawks, and maybe you

[00:41] really think the Pats have a chance to win this game. Well, it would make sense for you to find the best price. You're going to bet on the Pats to win. You want to put the most money in your pocket when the Patriots win. So

[00:53] naturally going over to Ballet Bet or FanDuel is going to pay you out DraftKings. But if you're a one sportsbook type of person where you only sign up with DraftKings or you only sign up with Caesars, well then you're

[01:07] seriously leaving money not on the table not just for this game but for the rest of the season because you're not line shopping. Right here on Odds Jam, I can see every single sports book that I have available to me that's offering price on

[01:19] the moneyline play between the Patriots and the Seahawks. I can also see I just click on the drop down. I can see different player prop markets, derivative markets, etc. So, let's say I really like the Seahawks, but I only

[01:31] have FanDuel. Well, I can get them in minus 220 odds. Maybe I want to put $100 down here. Well, that's going to pay me out $45 in profit. You can see though over at DraftKings, I can get this at minus $1.98, which is a better price,

[01:44] which means the same $100 wager is going to give me $51 in profit. Now, I know what you're saying. It's only a $6 difference. Big whoop. But if I only have FanDuel and all I do for the entire NFL season is use FanDuel and bet over

[01:57] there, you could see that over the course of 50, 100, maybe a thousand bets difference in price on the bets that I do win really adds up. So, you want to one thing that all these other rules are

[02:12] foundation to profitable betting. Rule number two is the engine behind everything that I do and that's positive expected value. This is a philosophy, not a specific strategy. And it shows up in a couple different forms. And the

[02:26] first one is promotions, the sportsbooks marketing dollars. Think of this as a bonus bet or maybe a profit boost or maybe like with Desert Diamond, a deposit match, right? When you think of that profit boost, well, you're getting

[02:39] a better price when you slap that boost onto whatever bet that you're looking to place. You're getting paid out more than what you should. The second form of positive EV is with arbitrage and middle betting where you're day trading the

[02:51] different prices that they offer. So, right here, we're looking at week one, DraftKings and another sports book, well, they have their odds mispriced with one another on this over under 49 12 points. So right here, I could simply

[03:06] just place one wager on DraftKings for one amount and one wager on this sports book for another amount. I could come up here to the calculator and I can day trade the books and make a risk-free profit. Putting 250 down here,$ 220

[03:19] here. My total investment is $470. No matter if the over hits or the under hits, we're going to make our $470 back plus $9.54. that you invest, the more money that you can make. And this is the same thing

[03:34] taking advantage of price differences and line differences between the sports books. And then another form of positive EV betting is well maybe I don't want to day trade the books here on this Ravens Colts play. When we look down here at

[03:47] this under 49 a half, we could just look at the market consensus and say DraftKings is really off compared to the rest of the sports books. I could just place a one-sided wager on the under right here because what we're getting

[04:00] paid out more than what we should or the price that we're receiving here from DraftKings is a value because any other sports book that we place this bet on much. We are though over here on DraftKings and you have to think that

[04:13] the consensus of all these sports books is quite accurate or sharp. So instead of arbitrageing this, we could just simply place the under on DraftKings for week one of the Ravens and the Colts and lock in great value. If you've noticed

[04:26] thus far in the first two rules, I've only focused on the price that the sports books are offering us. I never place a bet unless the math tells me to coaches, the teams, the rosters, the offensive or defensive strategies for

[04:39] this season because it's irrelevant. If the price isn't right, then I'm not this one took me the longest to learn out of all five rules, and it's the difference between actually having fun or making money, and that is having two

[04:53] different buckets. My entertainment bucket and my investment bucket. So, on an NFL Sunday, I might set aside 25 or $50 for entertainment. I'm making same game parlays, 10 leg parlays. I'm riding with the boys. What's our favorite pick?

[05:07] I'm having fun with this money. I don't expect my entertainment money to make any money for myself at all. I expect every single bet that I make from the entertainment bets to lose. But my investment bucket, the arbitrage,

[05:21] positive EV, that's where I'm putting 99% of my bankroll into because that's the money that I expect to earn compound over time. That's the money where I expect when I look back at my Sunday, I made money from this bucket. But if you

[05:36] everything's just in one big bucket, it's hard to decipher. Well, did my parlay contribute to my profits? Well, was that entertainment? Was it actually need to make sure that you understand this. And if you think that you're going

[05:52] to make a lot of money on Sundays on the NFL, but all your money is in the entertainment side and very few of it's an investment, then you have misaligned then the path that you're going on when

[06:04] because you can still have a real edge on a play and go broke if you're not appropriately sizing your bets. And that's where odds Jam, specifically with the Kelly Criterion Calculator, comes in clutch. The Kelly criterion calculator

[06:16] takes a look at your bankroll, how much money that you have available for sports betting. Then it takes a look at the odds or the price that we're receiving. that we deems very sharp. And in this

[06:28] Pinnacle is going to be our tour guide. So their odds is what's actually what we're going to be following. And then it tells us, well, here's our win bet based off the odds and then our actual edge. And then it spits out a

[06:42] looking at this play saying, "You know what? I'm just going to bet $10 or I'm going to bet $5,000." No, no, no. We're taking advantage of the value that we're receiving. And if we're receiving less value, we place a lower wager. If we

[06:56] wager. Now, if you come over here on odds jam, click profile, and then come to bankroll settings. The Kelly multiplier is very important because if you don't use a 0.25, 25 and maybe you use 0.5 or just one then this is going

[07:10] to send your bet recommendation through the roof and that's where things get really aggressive. Always stick to a 0.25 Kelly multiplier. Obviously your bank roll number here is just the number that you have for sports betting. This

[07:23] is going to change but always stick to 0.25. Everything being discussed here with rule number four comes down to one-sided wagers. Whether that's using parlays, you want to make sure that you're putting the appropriate bet

[07:35] amount down based off the value that we're receiving because sometimes losing streaks or stretches happen and you want to make sure that you're not overexposed when you can start to see a portion of your bankroll go out the door when a

[07:48] is what separates people who think they're sharp from the ones who actually are. That's tracking your bets, but making sure that you're beating the closing line value. The closing line

[08:00] value is just simply what was the price right before the game started for the bet that you're placing on and then compared to the price that you got it at when you placed your bet. And OddsJam's bet tracker, which is completely [music]

[08:12] free, does all of this for you. So you can see on some bets from last year's Super Bowl. Sam Darnold, I got this at plus 110 odds. While the closing line value was plus 106, I bet the under in the game over at Fanatics, I got it at

[08:25] -125. Right before kickoff, it was at minus 140. So, the reason this is so powerful is when you're getting a better price than the closing line value or This is the number one indicator that you're a sharp sports better. Now, not

[08:39] won this bet on Helani, but I didn't beat the closing line value. But if you're beating the close over 55% of the time, and the higher the percentage, the better it is, this is going to tell you over the course of the long run over

[08:52] hundreds, thousands of bets, that you are going to be a long-term profitable closing line value, let's say you're only beating it 25% of the time, well, you're a losing sports better. And again, every single play that we're

[09:06] out a little bit more than what we should. and the bets that we do win on means we're adding a little extra money in our pocket which adds up over the wagers. If this video has been helpful to you at all, do me a favor and click

[09:22] up button, and tap on that bell notification so you don't miss the next beat the closing line? We just discussed it in the first two rules. Line shopping how you're going to become a long-term profitable sports better. But if you're

[09:37] not tracking your bets, you don't have a clue then if you're profitable or not. Oddsjam software is what completely changed my sports betting journey. I was I'm a profitable one. And if you want to try this software one week for free and

[09:50] then save 35% off your first month after the oneweek trial ends, use my code Billy35. It'll be linked in the description below.