AI Summary
The video breaks down the Federal Reserve's latest balance sheet data, showing the Fed has printed roughly $120 billion in three months and now holds $6.27 trillion in assets. It argues that CPI understates real inflation, the Fed is acting as buyer of last resort for US Treasuries, and more money printing is inevitable. The speaker warns this will devalue fiat currency, lift real assets, and worsen the cost-of-living crisis.
Chapters
As of Dec 31 2025, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet stood at $6.155 trillion — about 95% of its total assets. The Fed creates money out of thin air and lends it to the US government, which never repays it.
The Fed creates trillions with keystrokes, lending to the US government; the money enters the economy via federal payrolls, social programs and wasteful spending.
By March 25, the balance sheet reached $6.271 trillion, meaning $117 billion was printed in under three months, likely ending March around $120 billion.
The Fed is printing about $40 billion a month — under $500 billion a year — and this pace is likely to accelerate after March's deteriorating financial conditions.
The Fed uses newly printed money to buy Treasury bills, notes and bonds — effectively lending the government money that will never be repaid.
T-bill holdings rose $148 billion and notes/bonds rose $33 billion since the start of the year; T-bills mature in 1 year or less, from 4 to 52 weeks.
Fewer buyers of Treasuries would force the US to raise yields; with $39 trillion debt, that's unaffordable. The Fed printed $181 billion to buy Treasuries in 3 months, netting $120 billion after selling some agency MBS.
The Fed dismisses T-bill buying as reserve management, but notes and bonds are also rising, so the speaker argues it's essentially quantitative easing and inflationary.
CPI measures change in cost of living, not price inflation. A product going from $100 to $110 is 10% inflation, but CPI substitutes a $102.40 product and calls it 2.4%.
February M2 money supply increased at a 10.6% annual rate, far above the reported 2.4% CPI.
Rising 30-year Treasury yields signal a buyer shortage; the 10-year yield matters because mortgage rates correlate with it, and 30-year fixed mortgages rose from 6.0% to 6.6% in a month.
With inflation accelerating, the Fed's hands are tied: 97.4% probability of no cut at the April 29 FOMC, and 92%, 88.2%, and 86.4% probabilities of no cuts in June, July, and September.
The speaker can't predict exact rate moves but says more printing is certain; the debt bubble will eventually produce a sovereign debt crisis or depression, which the Fed will try to avoid with inflation.
The speaker's core takeaway is that the Fed will keep printing to avoid a debt crisis, making inflation and asset-price inflation effectively permanent. He urges viewers to protect wealth through real assets rather than cash.
Mentioned in this Video
Study Flashcards (11)
What was the Federal Reserve's balance sheet as of December 31, 2025?
easy
Click to reveal answer
What was the Federal Reserve's balance sheet as of December 31, 2025?
$6.155 trillion.
00:16
How much money did the Fed print in under three months as of March 25?
easy
Click to reveal answer
How much money did the Fed print in under three months as of March 25?
$117 billion, likely ending March around $120 billion.
01:26
What annual pace of money printing does the speaker cite?
medium
Click to reveal answer
What annual pace of money printing does the speaker cite?
About $40 billion per month, just under $500 billion a year.
01:41
What assets does the Fed buy with newly printed money?
easy
Click to reveal answer
What assets does the Fed buy with newly printed money?
US Treasury bills, Treasury notes, and Treasury bonds.
02:10
Why does the Fed act as buyer of last resort for US Treasuries?
medium
Click to reveal answer
Why does the Fed act as buyer of last resort for US Treasuries?
Fewer buyers would force the government to raise interest rates, which it can't afford with $39 trillion in debt.
04:56
What is the speaker's critique of CPI inflation measurement?
medium
Click to reveal answer
What is the speaker's critique of CPI inflation measurement?
CPI measures the change in cost of living, not price inflation; it substitutes cheaper products, e.g., a $100-to-$110 item is counted as 2.4% via a $102.40 substitute.
06:41
What was the M2 money supply growth rate in February?
easy
Click to reveal answer
What was the M2 money supply growth rate in February?
10.6% annual rate.
08:04
What is the relationship between bond prices and yields?
medium
Click to reveal answer
What is the relationship between bond prices and yields?
Inverse — if there aren't enough buyers, bond prices go down and yields go up.
08:59
How did 30-year fixed mortgage rates move over the past month?
easy
Click to reveal answer
How did 30-year fixed mortgage rates move over the past month?
They rose from 6.0% to 6.6%.
09:14
What is the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged at the April 29 FOMC meeting?
medium
Click to reveal answer
What is the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged at the April 29 FOMC meeting?
97.4%.
09:54
By how much has the US dollar lost purchasing power since the Fed was established in 1913?
easy
Click to reveal answer
By how much has the US dollar lost purchasing power since the Fed was established in 1913?
Over 96%.
12:17
💡 Key Takeaways
Fastest money printing in months
The balance sheet grew $117B in under three months, a concrete sign of accelerating Fed expansion.
01:26Buyer of last resort for government debt
Explains why the Fed is forced to monetize debt: higher yields would be unaffordable with $39 trillion owed.
04:56CPI vs. price inflation
Illustrates a key methodological flaw in CPI with a simple $100-to-$110 example.
07:07Bond market link to mortgages
Connects 10-year Treasury yields to 30-year mortgage rates, showing how the bond market hits households directly.
08:59More money printing is inevitable
Summarizes the speaker's thesis that the Fed will choose inflation over depression, locking in devaluation.
11:12Full Transcript
[00:01] again, and inflation is accelerating. I want to show you how bad the situation worse. So, let's begin with the money printing. yourself, it's all public. You just go to the Federal Reserve's website. This
[00:16] is the bulk of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, around 95% of it. As of December 31st of 2025, it stood at $6 trillion 155 billion. dollars. Okay, let's break this down into plain English. Here's what's going on.
[00:31] The Federal Reserve literally creates money out of thin air. They hit some numbers on their keyboards, and it appears in their bank accounts. Trillions of dollars, 6.15 trillion as of December 31st of 2025.
[00:45] And with that money that they created out of thin air, they lend that money to the US governments, which will, of course, never be paid back. The US government spends that money on federal employees, on social programs,
[00:58] employees, on social programs, additionally on wasteful spending, etc. So, that money that they spend, it goes into the economy. And there's going to be more money floating around in the system. And then you have more money
[01:10] chasing after the same amount of goods. So, prices inflate, prices go up. Money is loaned into existence. So, that's how it works. look at that number, 6 trillion 155 billion. Now, we fast forward to March
[01:26] 25th, the most recent figures as these figures are published on a weekly basis. And here we are, standing at $6 trillion 271 billion. dollars. They've printed 271 billion. dollars. They've printed $117 billion in just under 3 months.
[01:41] And with the last week of March, it's probably going to end up around $120 months. So, they're printing about $40 billion a So, that's you know, that's going to be a rate of just under $500 billion a year
[01:57] of money printing. And that's before we've come across this deteriorating financial situation in March. Which is, of course, most likely going to result in a faster rate of money printing.
[02:10] guaranteeing that it's going to happen in April, but when they push the gas They're going to floor it. Now, with this newly printed $120 billion, what is the Federal Reserve going to do with that money? That's a
[02:24] good question, right? The answer is that they're taking this newly printed money, and they're buying US Treasury bills, and Treasury notes, and Treasury bonds. In other words, they are lending money
[02:37] to the US governments. Loans that are never going to be paid back. So, in they're just printing money, and they're giving it to the governments. So, if we take a look at Treasury bills, the T-bills that they're buying, from the
[02:50] start of the year to now, it's gone up by $148 billion. So, Treasury bills are short-term debt instruments that mature in 1 year or less. The durations are 4 weeks, 8 weeks, 13, 17, 26, and 52. Treasury
[03:08] weeks, 13, 17, 26, and 52. Treasury notes and bonds went up by $33 billion. Okay, why is the Federal Reserve buying up Treasury bills, Treasury notes, and Treasury bonds? Okay, you have to understand that if you buy a Treasury
[03:20] bill, if you buy Treasury notes, if you buy Treasury bonds, US governments. You're basically buying an IOU from the governments, and you get rewarded some interest income. And the Federal Reserve
[03:35] is buying these Treasuries because fewer people, fewer institutions, and fewer foreign countries want to lend money to the US governments. And why is this a problem? It's a problem because if fewer people
[03:48] want to buy US Treasuries, then the government needs to raise the interest rates on them, you know, on the Treasuries, to attract more buyers. You understand, it's like this. It's like, "Hey, do you want to lend money to the
[04:01] US governments and get paid an interest rate of 3% a year?" And if the current situation is, well, the rate of inflation is running at a would be no. Like, I'm not going to lend money to the US government for 3%. Now,
[04:15] And then the government would be like, "Okay, fine. You don't want to do it for 3%. How about 4%? Do you want to lend money to us for 4% a year?" And the answer would still be no. Then the government say, "Okay, how about 5%?
[04:28] How about 6%?" Eventually, as they raise the interest rate to make it more appealing, they'll find enough people to lend them the money that they need. interest rate, it's going to cost the government so much more money in
[04:43] And they you know, just think about it. They can't afford to do that because they have $39 trillion of debt. So, they can't allow that. They can't afford that. Okay, so what happens? The Federal
[04:56] Reserve steps in as the buyer of last resort. It's like, "Okay, not enough people want to lend money to the US government for 3% a year. So, we'll just have the Federal Reserve print the money, and
[05:08] they'll take that offer at 3%. And they're just going to buy more and more because what do they care? It's just you know, fictitiously printed money. And in 3 months, the Federal Reserve bought 181 billion more of US
[05:23] Treasuries. And I just want to clarify some discrepancies. You might say, "Brian, I thought that you said that the Federal Reserve printed $120 billion in the past 3 months." Okay, yes, the the Federal Reserve
[05:35] Okay, yes, the the Federal Reserve printed $181 billion to buy Treasuries to give to the US governments, but they let go of some agency MBS and some other holdings. But, the net result was $120 billion
[05:48] printed in 3 months. The bulk of that, you know, the newly printed money, went towards T-bills. And just for educational purposes, when they say that educational purposes, when they say that they print money and buy longer duration
[06:00] easing. But, they're saying that the money that quantitative easing because they're taking the newly printed money, and they're buying T-bills. So, they're calling it reserve management.
[06:14] But, honestly, it's still money printing and inflationary. And honestly, I say that it's BS because I see the Treasury notes and bonds going up in their So, technically, it should be called quantitative easing and reserve
[06:29] management if they want to be nitpicky about it. So, that's the Federal Reserve and money printing. And I just want you to know that the banks print money, too. to know that the banks print money, too. Again, money is loaned into existence.
[06:41] Anyways, the US government is telling us that the rate of inflation is at 2.4%. So, honestly, in my opinion, I just don't believe that figure. worth bringing it to your attention again because, you know, some people
[06:54] didn't catch that video. So, sure, the CPI inflation report compiled by the US government may say that inflation is at 2.4%. But, I just want to say again that the CPI inflation report does not measure
[07:07] inflation. It measures the change in the cost of living, which is not price So, if you want to measure price inflation, then it's simple. And I just want to give you a straightforward example. Let's just say that a product
[07:22] costs $100 12 months ago. And today, it cost $110, then the price inflation is 10% a year. It's that simple. This is not how the CPI inflation calculation works. If something goes
[07:37] from $100 to $110, the calculation says, "Well, you could the calculation says, "Well, you could buy the substitute product for $102.40. buy the substitute product for $102.40. So, that's 2.4% inflation, not 10%."
[07:51] going to include that product in our calculation anymore. You know, no reason needed. They just do it. Like, I'm not joking. You could look it up. And then we take a look at the M2 money supply. I want you to take a look. For the month
[08:04] of February, the money supply increased at a rate of 10.6%. at a rate of 10.6%. So, that 2.4% like I say year rate. Now, listen, this is my concern. What I just showed you, the money
[08:18] printing, the rate of inflation, this is before the liquidity situation gets worse. This is before they need to rescue the situation with more money printing. And listen, I'm telling you that we're on a path towards needing
[08:31] those bailouts and rescues. Like, I already told you about how the They need more liquidity. They need more money printing. Commercial real estate needs help. The banks that hold all these underwater loans and Treasuries,
[08:44] they need help, too. But, of course, the biggest concern is the bond market, by This is the interest rate on the 30-year Treasury bond for the past 1 month. The price of the bonds and the interest rates, or the yield, have an inverse
[08:59] relationship. If there's not enough buyers due to a bond is going to go down, and the interest rates is going to go up. And I the 10-year Treasury notes. And this one's actually very important because
[09:14] mortgage interest rates correlates to this 10-year yield. As this interest rate goes higher, mortgage interest rates go higher. So, that's why over the past month, the average 30-year fixed mortgage interest
[09:27] average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate went up from 6.0% to 6.6%. situation and inflation. Now, let's shift over to interest rates. Okay, we know that the rate of inflation is accelerating. And it's for that
[09:42] reason, the Federal Reserve has their hands tied. Like, how are they supposed to cut interest rates, you know, which is, of course, inflationary, when inflation is already going up? The next Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is
[09:54] going to take place on April 29th. and there's a 97.4% chance that they're not going to cut interest rates. And I agree with those odds. Like this is coming from the CME FedWatch tool.
[10:06] And the next Federal Reserve meeting is going to be on June 17th, and that's candidates. So it is expected that you know, that candidate, which is Warsh, is going to do a token interest
[10:20] that they even that's too far-fetched, like a token cut in this type of environment. There's a 92% chance that they won't meeting. And then we take a look at the next
[10:34] And then we take a look at the next meeting in July, an 88.2% chance that same. And then we take a look out as far as September, an 86.4% chance that they're going to keep rates the same. So I'm
[10:46] telling you that we are in a pickle. And I'll tell you something else, like imagine how pissed Trump is going to be when his own nominee doesn't cut interest rates. Again, Warsh may still decide to do a
[10:59] token cut of 0.25%, like I don't know if he's going to be able to convince the other voting members of the Federal Reserve to go along with that. But yeah, Listen, I just want to speak to you plainly. Like I cannot precisely
[11:12] interest rates again. But what I can tell you with certainty more and more money, like that is inevitable. debt bubble's going to burst, we're going to have a sovereign debt crisis,
[11:26] and that's going to lead to an economic depression. So obviously they're going to want to avoid that by printing money. Better inflation than an economic depression, right? Just kick the can down the road. But listen, I
[11:39] frustrating to me because it's not like I want an economic depression, but I'm just saying that kicking the can down the road, it's not a solution. And as it goes further down the road, the situation becomes more difficult,
[11:51] you know, cost of living and the wealth inequality because of inflation. logically. They're just going to have to print more money. Fiat currencies will continue to devalue, and there's going to be more
[12:04] inflation, right? So what's the result going to be? Real assets will continue going up in price. And I'm telling you that you don't want Just I mean, take a look at this. The US dollar has lost over 96% of its
[12:17] purchasing power since the Federal Reserve was established in 1913, according to data from the Federal Reserve. And I just want to end with this. Come join me on my Patreon sites. I'm going to leave a link for you down
[12:30] below. So we're just over there as a community because bottom line, we just don't want to be screwed over financially by the governments and by the politicians with this nonsense. Like that's all we're doing over there.
[12:42] stock market to defend against all this corruption and negligence. Like you know it's just nonsense out there. Anyways, I wish you a nice day. Thank you so much. wish you a nice day. Thank you so much. Take care.
