Why I Still Haven't Given Up on Crypto

[00:02] drawdowns. You have the same doubt. You have the same people telling you that it's over. And that's why so many smart people quit crypto right before the cycle turns around. Now, clearly, I have been wrong on market timing since

[00:15] basically October. Every time I think that the market's going to go one way, But when I zoom out and then I look at liquidity and I look at macro, I don't see a broken thesis. And this is kind of

[00:28] one of the things that's been driving me nuts. Instead, I see a market doing what it always does right before things go crazy and bananas and we and we launch into a crypto bull run. And I'll be honest, I'm not used to being wrong like

[00:40] called the bottom at 80k. And I called the bottom at 70k. And I was wrong every exactly what I've been looking at that's caused me to be so bullish and exactly First off though, for those who are still watching these videos, you're

[00:54] And you probably feel kind of foolish, especially with all the bears being like, "Ah, you should have sold. I can't believe you got into that crypto thing, that November 2022 was really rough like this as well. There was a lot of people

[01:07] you're an idiot. How could you invest into crypto? How could you go all in, Don't you know it's going way lower? Don't you know the entire market's going to collapse?" And then over the next two years, I made an absolute fortune being

[01:20] invested in crypto. 2020 was also rough. There's a lot of people saying like, time. They're like, "Why are you investing in crypto? That's so stupid. this and that." And again, I made an absolute fortune investing in crypto

[01:35] during that time. You can't always win and you won't always win investing. If single greatest investor of all time. But the thing is, it's the bulls who stay consistent who ultimately win. But the bears who jeer from the sidelines

[01:48] and laugh at those who take risks, they never win because they never actually step out of their comfort zone and do anything that's worthwhile. Okay, so I've talked a lot about how between 2022 and 2026, the macro environment actually

[02:01] has not been very stimulative. It's not been very supportive of crypto, of the stock market, etc. And a lot of people don't see that because all they see is stocks at all-time highs and crypto at all-time or Bitcoin at all-time highs.

[02:16] Bitcoin's bid up a lot of it has to do with those structured ETF bids. So, this that have really pushed Bitcoin's price up. And I've talked a lot about how the S&P 500's gains have really come from a

[02:30] handful of companies that have been dragging the indices up. So, you have a a lot of hype around AI and that's been really dragging the indices up, but as a whole, the stock market hasn't been doing that great. But you get a lot

[02:42] we've been in the last couple years when you stop pricing things in dollars and you start pricing them in something real like gold. And that's because of constantly printing dollars, that'll push the value of things up, the price

[02:56] but it doesn't necessarily mean the underlying true value of those things actually went up. And so, what I did is I went back with the S&P 500 and I broke it into two different time periods. The time period of 2012 to 2021, that's

[03:09] Bitcoin's first bull run started all the way up to 2021. And then the time period of 2022 through 2026. And I measured the gains of the S&P 500 during those two time periods as priced in gold instead of dollars. And and the results were

[03:24] pretty staggering. During 2012 to 2021, the S&P 500 on average gained 14.6% as measured in gold per year. Meaning during those years, the S&P 500 was

[03:36] making real gains. There was real value being generated. The economy was actually doing really, really good. During the time period of 2022 through During the time period of 2022 through 2026, the S&P 500 as measured in gold

[03:48] has made an average of -10.9% per year. Meaning over time it's actually losing real value. Things have not been really good. They've actually been really poor. AKA, when you price the stock market in gold, when you price

[04:01] the S&P 500 gains in gold, it's been abysmal. And up until recent history, like the 1970s, gold was the standard for like is how much is this thing valued? We you would always value these things in gold. And so it is one of the

[04:14] truest forms of value and it shows that the that the gains have been abysmal for the stock market. from 2022 to 2026. Now, I know some of you guys are thinking, well, you know, gold's been doing really good lately. And so maybe

[04:27] to to value things in gold because it's just been doing too good, Jesse. And it's not just gold that shows that we've been in this silent recession of sorts, data points that point to the fact that the economy has not been doing good

[04:42] since 2021. For example, this is my seven dials macro chart. And so this shows seven dials to kind of measure the state of the market. And during past bull runs in 2017, 2021, 2013, these dials have been like basically all

[04:56] green, some of them purple, some of them white. They have just looked fantastic, basically showing that we're in optimal macro conditions to have a frothy, you know, things are overflowing,

[05:08] your cup is spilling all over the place. It's a really good environment for a bull run. But what you can see is in 2022, we had the absolute most abysmal conditions like almost physically possible. The black dot is absolutely

[05:20] the worst you can get. Red is the second worst. And and the only thing that kind of looked okay was the orange dot and that's narrative in excess. That's the just bleed over from crypto being so bullish in 2021. You can see 2023,

[05:34] actually started to get better. The picture, the macro picture went from horrible to, you know, not quite good, but but definitely way better. And you can see in 2024, things further improved. They got even a little bit

[05:48] better than 2023 and 2022. You can see in 2025, things got even better. They started to improve even more. And you can see in 2026, things have gotten significantly better. And so the overall trend from the the 7 dials chart, which

[06:04] again measures things on on a macro level, has been abysmally bad to slow improvement year over year to to where now we actually line up with almost what what 2013 looked like uh during the 2013 crypto bull run. However, I would like

[06:20] excess uh dot right here is a little bit outdated. Uh this was purple uh about right now. This this is probably black because the the narrative sentiment etc. in crypto is abysmal right now. So this is really been the thing that's been

[06:35] carrying us. As you can see over the past uh couple years, 2023, 2024, 2025, the narrative around crypto has been so hyper bullish. And that's because of this institutional adoptions, because these ETFs, because of BlackRock and and

[06:48] all these uh you know, Wall Street people getting involved in the crypto space. And that's really given bullish momentum to to crypto as a whole because BlackRock's getting involved, so we're going to have all these this marketing

[07:00] and these products and and and you know, all this stuff." And and that's true. We being built out and it is extremely bullish. But that's been what's been bullish. But that's been what's been carrying us from 2023 through 2025. If

[07:12] against gold uh over the past couple years, it's also abysmal. Bitcoin's also years, it's also abysmal. Bitcoin's also down versus gold from 2022 through 2026. We've just kind of been limping along because we have all these new on-ramps

[07:25] from Wall Street and and all this fresh narrative and just excitement because of it. And the moment we really pivoted and we started to fall apart was when we flipped black, again, this chart is a little bit out of date, when when that

[07:38] the whole market started to fall apart. That's, you know, if you remember in to heat up. They were starting to look bullish. Then we had this massive, massive liquidation day on 10/10. And that absolutely decimated the narrative

[07:54] and and decimated people's sentiment because it was just such a massive drop. And it triggered this 4-year cycle just mania and panic. And so you saw this narrative in excess, you know, basically momentum that was carrying us flip from

[08:08] positive to negative and actually start to work against us. Now, it's not just my seven dials or pricing the S&P 500 and Bitcoin against gold that shows that This is the ISM Purchasing Managers Index. And, you know, this is getting a

[08:23] various people saying, "Ah, you know, it doesn't work because sometimes it goes you know, it it doesn't correspond to price going up and down." And that that's kind of trying to treat this almost like a TA indicator. When really

[08:37] what matters about the ISM is the overall trend. The ISM is just a showing you like sentiment around manufacturing over time. This goes all the way back to 1948. And individual moves really don't matter. What matters

[08:53] is the trend, okay? So over time the trend. And you can see it goes in waves. is like, you know, a recession. This is like, ah, bullish, the economy's heating economy's heating up. Recession, bullish, the economy's heating up. And

[09:06] it just goes over and over and over and over again all the way from 1948 until happens. There's there's actually specific reasons that have to do with credit and market psychology as to why we constantly go in waves and patterns

[09:21] and we have expansions and contractions over and over again. But the point is what doesn't matter is like, you know, these individual moves. What matters is are we going into an a retraction or are we going into an expansion? That's

[09:34] really all that you use this to measure is, you know, obviously manufacturing nothing to do with Bitcoin. All you're trying to gauge is is the economy heating up or is the economy cooling down? Because if the economy is heating

[09:47] up, that is when crypto typically performs really well. Crypto performs in times of froth, in times of excess. I talk about all the time, it's like the Rolex or the Lambo or the luxury home sales or luxury pools, I don't know. You

[10:01] when they have too much money, okay? It's not the thing that people buy when people buy when, you know, they're barely scraping by. And so, when when I say people, think of the economy. When the economy is is

[10:15] limping along, crypto is not very attractive. When the economy is booming and, you know, it is just expanding rapidly, crypto is extremely attractive. That's when people, you know, work their way out the risk curve into things like

[10:28] things like alts, that's that's when alts shine. That's alts become like the ultimate money maker of all time in those time periods. But, you know, not in those time periods, they're abysmal. They're they're horrific assets to hold

[10:42] only time that they shine. And I I have other curve. They've talked about it in past videos. But, the point is that crypto does well in these periods, in the times of abundance, and it does horrible in

[10:55] these periods, okay? And so, the ISM is actually showing you that we were in a peak back in 2021. And then since then, we have just fallen off a cliff and we've stayed off that cliff, okay? So, usually this 50 line is

[11:08] is kind of a good measure of like when things are good and when things are bad. And you can see we've basically stayed under that 50 line since 2021 with with only a small peak over it in late 2024, which happened to coincide

[11:21] with a pretty epic crypto bull market. So, this too shows silent recession of sorts. But, it also shows the same thing we saw in the seven dials, which is that this silent recession is slowly improving. That we're actually heading

[11:33] abysmal to something better. And you can see that really clearly in this chart. And And you can especially see that in this latest move up in the ISM, which of right back down, it doesn't matter. But if it's the start of a trend like this,

[11:47] of the business cycle. And you don't against gold. You don't just see it when you see the the seven dials chart. And you don't just see it when you see the ISM. You also see it on my

[12:00] probably all-time favorite chart ever, uh which is the M2 global chart, which momentum of money over time. And you can see the same thing. After 2021, the momentum of liquidity fell off a cliff into the same silent recession-type

[12:16] structure. You can see things were abysmal uh between 2021 and today. But you can also see the same thing you just saw on the ISM chart, which is things are trending up. Things are starting to improve. They're heading the right

[12:29] direction. And so you don't just have one data point, but you have a range of towards the same thing, that we are heading towards an acceleration of the business cycle. We are heading towards positive macro fundamentals. And that my

[12:43] thesis is basically that when we get there, that is when you're going to see a insane crypto bull run, because that's always been the conditions we've seen past insane crypto bull runs. And the way that I invest, and and this might

[12:55] who don't like, you know, regularly watch my channel, is I'm not trying to not trying to time the, you know, this and that and this. I'm not a medium-term trader, either. I'm not trying to get in over big swings. Um I was talking about

[13:09] in July how I knew there was a sell-off coming in uh August through September to sell. Um and that might seem kind of stupid, but, you know, a lot of times getting to like super small illiquid alts and and I just really can't sell.

[13:22] saying, "Hey, it's going to get bullish, but I got to wait for that old season. I got to wait for liquidity to come. And I'm basically my entire thesis and and the way I invest is I make a bet on when we're going to see a crazy epic bull

[13:36] run. And and I'm playing for just that time period. For the 2021s, the 2017s, for that time period is cuz I've been around during those time periods and I know they're just like the absolute jackpot when it comes to making

[13:50] life-changing amounts of money. And I might be wrong. Like this this might be a stupid strategy. And I might figure that out later down the line. But but just like try to time it and weave in and out. It's because I am playing for

[14:03] for keeps. I'm playing for the big one. You know, the mother load of of crypto gains. And that's during these bullish seasons. And and I'm seeing the trend. I that we're headed there. Like that we're heading to the same kind of market

[14:16] going. Really the question is when we get those past, will it equal the same kind of old season, the same kind of crypto bull I could be wrong. We could get there and

[14:30] is what I'm playing for. And and even another great way to show it, I've shown this before, goes back to 1948. I like to highlight that because it's a long time. You know, crypto the the four-year cycles from 2012 to to to today. It's

[14:44] very short period of time. This is from 1948 to today. So this is like a just legendary cycle. And you can see it always goes the same in waves. And you see the last one was a peak and now we've been in a trough. That means the

[14:58] next one should be a peak. And so you can you can even see it here. Like the next destination is some sort of business cycle peak. It's it's more a matter of how long it takes for us to get there. And my whole bet has been

[15:12] we were likely to get there late 2025. definitely didn't get there late 2025. We have seen this improvement that I've been talking about. and we have gotten really close. Like 2026 is looking

[15:25] slower than I expected. And I'm still expecting it in 2026. I'm still year things really start to accelerate. All the incentives, all everything else All the incentives, all everything else lines up. Liquidity is just primed.

[15:38] up a little bit, which we've already done a a good amount of that work. So, acceleration event for that liquidity to come out. There are a lot of good reasons to be bullish in 2026 and and be bullish going forward. But even if I'm

[15:51] takes till 2027 or whatever. Like I don't care. I am holding because I'm holding for that season. And my bet is that all this won't matter. When that time comes, when that crypto bull run comes, the gains

[16:04] will be so like absolutely insane that I'll make a fortune. And that's because that's And again, maybe I'm wrong, but that's because, you know, what happened in 2021. That's what happens when you get into market market

[16:18] territory. Things just get out of control. They don't even make sense. be worth that much in those time periods, but they are because it's how the market goes. And I've noticed, hey, this goes in patterns. Like there's

[16:33] a reason we get to these excess market states. There's a reason things get extra frothy. And if I could time for just that time period, I'll actually make more than, you know, trying to time all these medium-term and short-term

[16:45] And again, that's my bet. I I could be wrong. I could be, you know, completely wrong, but the game is not over yet. The bears might be laughing right now, but in the end historically it is the delusionally bullish ones who take home

[16:59] and everything like that. And all the bears on the sidelines who were cheering not they're not willing to risk anything. They they just want to stay in don't make anything. They never win. They you know, it is the same thing with

[17:12] or, you know, whatever. Like it's the one who takes the risks. Yeah, they fail. You know, they'll they'll run into walls, they'll fall on their face, etc. embarrassed I've been wrong since October. And I yeah, I've gotten so many

[17:25] of these like moves that's like I've never had this bad of a bottom calling streak in my life. But hey, I'm out here taking the risk and I'm telling taking home the cake because I took that risk. And failure is just a part of the

[17:38] this game with without falling on your face uh you know, half a dozen times, a cares? If in the end you win, that is ultimately all that matters and that's what this game is for. And if you're

[17:53] or you want to see every time I buy and sell various tokens as well as different currently the Obsidian Council is closed to new members, but you can sign up for video. As always, none of this is investment advice. None of this is me

[18:06] money. I'm obviously not your financial advisor and you should always do your if you want to see more videos like this, make sure you hit that subscribe be notified each time I release a new video. Thanks for watching and I'll see

[18:19] video. Thanks for watching and I'll see you next week.